Market Notes: EE, Braves, Archer, Tigers, Royals, Mets, Ziegler
Free agent designated hitter/first baseman Edwin Encarnacion will probably agree to a deal during the winter meetings, agent Paul Kinzer told Joel Sherman of the New York Post on Sunday (Twitter link). Negotiations between Encarnacion and interested teams have intensified since Major League Baseball and the players’ union reached a new collective bargaining agreement Wednesday, Kinzer revealed. Given that the Astros are signing Carlos Beltran and the Red Sox are reportedly falling out of contention for Encarnacion, it seems the slugger’s group of suitors has shrunk this weekend.
More on the free agent and trade markets:
- If the Braves acquire an ace, it’s more likely to be the Rays’ Chris Archer than the White Sox’s Chris Sale, tweets Mark Bowman of MLB.com. However, the Rays’ current asking price “far exceeds” what Atlanta is willing to pay, Bowman adds. The Braves have run into a similar problem with the White Sox regarding Sale.
- Although Detroit general manager Al Avila stated in October that the team has been spending “above its means,” the Tigers aren’t necessarily in payroll-slashing mode, one of their executives informed Sherman (Twitter link). Rather, they only intend to trade high-priced veterans if the right deals come along. The Tigers are currently planning on contending in 2017, per the executive. That makes sense considering they’re part of a division which already includes one rebuilding team, the Twins, and could feature two more if the Royals and White Sox decide their windows have closed.
- The new CBA is a negative for the Royals, opines Sherman, who reports (via Twitter) that their executives will meet Sunday night to discuss which path to take this offseason. The club has several integral contributors entering contract years, namely left-hander Danny Duffy, closer Wade Davis, outfielders Lorenzo Cain and Jarrod Dyson, first baseman Eric Hosmer, third baseman Mike Moustakas and shortstop Alcides Escobar. It stands to reason the 2015 World Series champions could part with at least some of those players in the coming months.
- The idea of the Mets trading both Curtis Granderson and Jay Bruce came up Saturday, but the team is “unlikely” to deal multiple outfielders, GM Sandy Alderson said Sunday. The likelihood is that Bruce will end up on the move, relays Anthony DiComo of MLB.com, as Alderson noted Granderson’s importance to the Mets (Twitter links). New York isn’t progressing toward jettisoning an outfielder yet, according to Buster Olney of ESPN (Twitter link). In a perfect world, the Mets would acquire bullpen help in return for Granderson or Bruce. Their best reliever, closer Jeurys Familia, could face a domestic violence suspension in 2017, and top southpaw Jerry Blevins is a free agent.
- Thirteen teams have checked in on free agent reliever Brad Ziegler, reports Olney (Twitter link). One of those clubs is Arizona, Ziegler’s longtime employer. When it comes to available relievers, the lion’s share of attention has understandably gone to Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen and Mark Melancon. Ziegler has more than held his own since debuting in 2008, though, with a 2.44 ERA and 66.3 percent ground-ball rate across 596 2/3 innings. The 37-year-old ended 2016 as a setup man with Boston, but he was previously the D-backs’ closer and combined for 48 saves from 2015 through the midway point of last season.
Rumors: Dodgers, BoSox, Astros, O’s, Rockies, Nats
Twins general manager Thad Levine revealed earlier this week that the team would have to be “really inspired” to trade second baseman Brian Dozier. It’s now possible the Dodgers will do enough to wow Minnesota into dealing Dozier, as Los Angeles is aggressively pursuing the slugger and has “piqued” the Twins’ interest, reports Bob Nightengale of USA Today (Twitter link). The second base-needy Dodgers have been after Dozier throughout the offseason.
More rumblings with the winter meetings set to commence:
- Backing up a recent report from Rob Bradford of WEEI, the Red Sox are unlikely to sign free agent first baseman/designated hitter Edwin Encarnacion, writes Evan Drellich of the Boston Herald. Moreover, the Sox probably won’t make any major free agent splashes in general, adds Drellich, thanks in part to their reluctance to spend beyond the $195MM luxury-tax threshold accompanying the new collective bargaining agreement. Boston has exceeded the luxury-tax limit in each of the previous two seasons and will need to pay a 40 to 50 percent penalty if it surpasses the mark for a third straight year.
- In addition to the previously reported Chris Sale, the Astros have interest in Rays ace Chris Archer, per Fanrag’s Jon Heyman. There’s skepticism around the game that the Rays would trade Archer, though. The right-hander is under team control through 2021 at eminently affordable rates.
- A report earlier this week indicated that the Orioles had interest in free agent left-hander Rich Hill, but they haven’t pursued the 36-year-old, according to Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. Hill, who was with the O’s in 2009, is on the verge of re-signing with the Dodgers.
- Free agent closer Mark Melancon reportedly has four-year offers worth $60MM-plus in hand from San Francisco, Washington and perhaps another team. In light of that, Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post tweets that the Rockies probably aren’t the mystery club; however, as a Colorado native, Melancon would be open to taking a bit less to join the Rockies, Saunders hears. General manager Jeff Bridich has reached out to Melancon’s representatives this offseason, but it’s nonetheless difficult to imagine the Rockies putting together a rich enough offer to land the 31-year-old.
- While the Nationals may have shored up the catcher position in trading for Derek Norris and avoiding arbitration with Jose Lobaton earlier this week, they’re still interested in free agent backstop Matt Wieters, relays Kubatko. If the Nats were to sign Wieters, the “sense” across the industry is that they’d look to flip Norris elsewhere.
Orioles, Rays, Braves Among Teams Interested In Welington Castillo
1:17pm: Add the Orioles to the list of teams interested in Castillo, as MASN’s Roch Kubatko tweets. The Orioles could lose Matt Wieters to free agency and have been interested in Castillo for some time, according to Kubatko.
11:03am: The Diamondbacks’ unexpected decision to non-tender Welington Castillo has added a new name to the free agent catching market, and Castillo is already receiving interest. The Rays are “expected to aggressively pursue” Castillo, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times wrote last night. The Rays, who currently have Luke Maile and Curt Casali atop their depth chart at catcher, were already expected to look for catching help, so it’s easy to see why the surprise addition of a .264/.322/.423 hitter and longtime starter to the market would be intriguing for them.
Topkin also tweeted this morning, though, that Castillo was receiving a number of calls, and not just from the Rays. It’s possible one of those teams could be the Braves, who have “some interest,” as David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal Constitution tweets. Current Braves backstop Tyler Flowers hit fairly well last year and rates as a good framer, and he and fellow catchers Anthony Recker and Tuffy Gosewisch are all now under contract for 2017. Castillo could certainly still help the Braves, however, and it stands to reason that they’d have interest, since they’ve also shown at least some interest in free agent backstops like Matt Wieters and Jason Castro.
2016-17 American League Non-Tenders
The deadline to tender 2017 contracts to players is tonight at 8pm ET. We’ll keep track of the day’s non-tenders in the American League in this post (all referenced arbitration projections courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)…
- Infielder Gregorio Petit and lefty Cody Ege were non-tendered by the Angels, per a club announcement.
- The Twins non-tendered pre-arb righty Yorman Landa, Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer-Press tweets.
- The Rays non-tendered infielder Ryan Brett, who wasn’t eligible for arbitration, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times tweets.
- The Yankees have non-tendered southpaw Jacob Lindgren, the club announced. His departure leaves the team with one open 40-man roster spot. The high-powered lefty has dealt with elbow issues in recent years.
- Righty Blake Smith will head to the open market after he wasn’t tendered by the White Sox. The 28-year-old debuted briefly in the majors last year, but spent most of the year at Triple-A. He showed well there, compiling a 3.53 ERA with 9.5 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9 over 71 1/3 innings. Smith compiled those frames in just 39 appearances, suggesting that Chicago liked the idea of utilizing him in a multi-inning role — which other organizations may consider, too.
- The Rangers announced that outfielder Jared Hoying will be non-tendered, making him a free agent. The 27-year-old made his major league debut last year, struggling through 49 plate appearances. He did have a solid run at Triple-A, though, slashing .269/.336/.474 with 78 strikeouts against 37 walks over 435 trips to the plate.
- The Indians have non-tendered righty Jeff Manship, MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian tweets. The club’s remaining arb-eligible players will all be offered contracts. Manship projected at $1.2MM, but even that relatively minimal amount proved too great for Cleveland to take on. While the 31-year-old didn’t have sterling peripherals, he was solid last year for the Indians and posted a magical run for the team in 2015. All told, he contributed 82 2/3 innings of 2.07 ERA ball during his time in Cleveland, which ought to set him up for an opportunity with another organization.
- Righty Vance Worley has been non-tendered by the Orioles, per a team announcement. All of the team’s other eligible players have been tendered contracts. Worley had been projected to command $3.3MM in arbitration as a 4+ service-class player, but will instead hit the open market. The 29-year-old pitched to a 3.53 ERA in 86 2/3 innings last year with Baltimore, functioning mostly in a relief capacity. He has plenty of experience as a starter, however, and remains a possible swingman (or back-of-the-rotation) option for other organizations. Over his seven major league campaigns, Worley has posted a 3.75 ERA with 6.8 K/9 and 3.6 BB/9.
- The Red Sox announced that they won’t tender a contract to veteran catcher Bryan Holaday. The 29-year-old batted .231/.281/.359 with a pair of homers and seven doubles in 129 PAs between Texas and Boston this past season. The right-handed-hitting Holaday will bring a career .628 OPS and 28 percent caught-stealing rate to the free agent market as he looks to latch on elsewhere, presumably in a backup capacity. He’d been projected to earn $900K in arbitration this winter and comes with three years of team control to any club that signs him. Boston tendered contracts to all of its remaining arb-eligible players, tweets the Boston Globe’s Alex Speier. Boston’s 40-man roster is at 39 players.
Trade Rumblings: Braves, Wilson, Martinez, Carter
The Braves are still looking at trading for an ace even after adding Bartolo Colon, R.A. Dickey and Jaime Garcia to their rotation this winter and are specifically focused on White Sox lefty Chris Sale and Rays right-hander Chris Archer, per ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick (all Twitter links). The Braves prefer Sale to Archer despite the potentially higher asking price and shorter amount of club control remaining on his contract, Crasnick adds. Atlanta is receiving quite a bit of interest in top prospect Ozzie Albies (in general and not specifically from the White Sox or Rays), Crasnick adds, but they’re expressing a good deal of reluctance to part with him. The Braves don’t seem especially enamored of Athletics right-hander Sonny Gray on the heels of a down season in 2016, according to Crasnick.
Some more trade chatter from around the league…
- The Tigers have been receiving plenty of calls about their veterans as they look to get younger and cut some payroll this winter, but MLB Network’s Jon Morosi tweets one name that has been drawing considerable interest without generating many headlines: lefty reliever Justin Wilson. Per Morosi, Detroit has “perhaps the largest number of inquiries” on Wilson as teams look to bolster their left-handed relief corps. The arbitration-eligible Wilson is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn just $2.7MM next season, so he wouldn’t trim much payroll of the Tigers’ books. But, he could certainly fetch a nice prospect or two, allowing the Tigers to get a bit younger in the process. Wilson, 29, posted excellent peripherals that suggest his marginal 4.14 ERA will improve in 2017 and beyond (10.0 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, 54.9 percent ground-ball rate, 3.02 SIERA).
- Morosi also tweets that the Phillies are seeking a short-term outfield bat and have inquired with the Tigers about J.D. Martinez, but talks didn’t advance much, he notes. Martinez has been one of the most talked-about trade candidates of the offseason and seems to have a decent chance of landing elsewhere this winter, but the asking price on him is apparently quite high at the moment. Newsday’s Marc Carig reported yesterday that Michael Conforto‘s name came up in talks with the Mets before New York re-signed Yoenis Cespedes. (Unsurprisingly, talks died quickly once Detroit mentioned Conforto, per Carig.)
- The Brewers are trying to trade recently-designated-for-assignment slugger Chris Carter before tonight’s 8pm ET non-tender deadline tweets Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports. The Orioles, who just claimed a player with a potentially similar skill set in Adam Walker, aren’t likely to make a play for Carter, per Heyman (whose tweet came prior to the Walker claim). Carter’s current scenario is somewhat reminiscent of last year’s Mark Trumbo situation, as he’s a player with prodigious power that the league isn’t valuing at his arbitration number due to defensive concerns, high strikeout tendencies and a questionable on-base percentage. The Mariners were able to get a nominal return for Trumbo rather than non-tendering him, but MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy tweets that Milwaukee shopped Carter around for a month before designating him, so it seems unlikely that a trade will materialize in the next six hours.
Brewers Claim Steve Geltz, Designate Adam Walker For Assignment
The Brewers announced on Monday that they’ve claimed right-handed reliever Steve Geltz off waivers from the Rays and designated minor league outfielder/first baseman Adam Walker for assignment.
Geltz will head to the Brewers, where former Rays director of player personnel Matt Arnold is now serving as the assistant GM. The 29-year-old who recorded a 5.74 ERA in 26 2/3 innings with Tampa Bay this past season but posted a more impressive 3.03 ERA with better than 10 strikeouts per nine innings during his time at Triple-A. He had a solid season out of the Tampa Bay ’pen in 2015 (3.74 ERA, 8.2 K/9, 3.5 BB/9 in 67 1/3 innings) and has a 4.23 ERA in 104 1/3 innings at the big league level dating back to 2012. Milwaukee has some uncertainty in the bullpen after trading both Jeremy Jeffress and Will Smith at the non-waiver trade deadline this past year, and Geltz will give them an experienced arm to add to the 2017 bullpen competition.
Walker, 25, was claimed off waivers from the Twins last week but proved to have a very brief stay on Milwaukee’s 40-man roster. The former third-round pick has massive power, having homered 58 times across the past two minor league seasons, but he also strikes out at a prodigious clip. Walker punched out an incredible 202 times in 531 plate appearances at the Triple-A level this season (38 percent) and whiffed at a 34.8 percent clip at Double-A in 2015. He also lacks any true defensive position, as he’s played left field recently but is projected by most to ultimately function as a first baseman or DH if he ever breaks into the Majors.
East Notes: Yankees, Rodriguez, Rays
The Yankees are in the closing stages of Hal Steinbrenner’s rebuilding plan, and they should not deviate from it now, Joel Sherman of the New York Post writes. That means they must give young players the opportunities they need, both in the minors and in the big leagues. Sherman cites the example of Aaron Judge, a flawed but interesting player who might need extensive development time in the Majors before he hits his ceiling. The Yankees have a number of big-league players, like Greg Bird, Luis Severino and Luis Cessa, who will also require patience to develop, along with a very talented group of minor leaguers. Sherman notes that teams like the Cubs and Red Sox made their aggressive pushes only when it was clear they had a core of young talent that was ready to help. The Yankees should also be looking to accumulate financial flexibility, so that, in a couple years, when they’re a bit older and players like Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, Josh Donaldson and Shohei Otani are available as free agents, the Yankees will be in the best possible position to add them to their own strong core. Here’s more from the East divisions.
- Sean Rodriguez‘s big step forward last year was propelled by changes he made to his plate discipline against righties and to his launch angles, Eno Sarris of FanGraphs writes. Even if he doesn’t retain all of his 2016 improvement next season, though, he’s a good match for the Braves, Sarris opines. Rodriguez’s abilities to hit lefties and play several positions give the Braves platoon options at second base (with Jace Peterson) and the outfield (with Nick Markakis). Also, the relatively cheap $11.5 million guarantee limits the Braves’ downside if Rodriguez fails to live up to his surprising 2016 performance.
- The Rays haven’t yet made any significant moves this offseason, and some of the deals made by other teams might have thwarted them to a degree, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times suggests. Jason Castro and Brett Cecil stood out as potential fits for the Rays, but other teams signed them at relatively high costs. GM Erik Neander, though, says the opportunities available later in the offseason might turn out to be better for the Rays. “Early offseason signings are typically the result of a very competitive market for those players,” says Neander. “Sometimes it’s difficult to contend with that, but not always. Our job is to be prepared, try to do our evaluations correctly, wait for the right opportunity to arise and be in position to strike when it does.”
AL East Notes: Red Sox, Britton, Yankees, Rays
The Red Sox are continuing to demonstrate a patient approach when it comes to free agency as they wait to learn what new changes the latest collective bargaining agreement will bring about, reports WEEI’s Rob Bradford. With Boston’s luxury tax payroll not far off from the current $189MM threshold, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski is one of several top decision-makers from around the league that is waiting to determine exactly how much wiggle room he’ll have with regard to the luxury tax barrier before spending. As Bradford points out, while teams like the Astros (signing Josh Reddick, trading for Brian McCann) and Cardinals (signing Brett Cecil) have already spent at a notable level, those clubs aren’t anywhere near the current luxury cutoff. Bradford notes that a bat to help offset the loss of David Ortiz as well as an eighth-inning reliever remain the top targets for Boston.
Elsewhere in the AL East…
- As a followup to Roch Kubatko’s report that the Orioles aren’t showing any inclination toward trading Zach Britton, ESPN’s Buster Olney argues (Insider subscription required) that GM Dan Duquette should be very open to doing just that. The price of relief pitching around the league is rising, Olney notes, and Britton’s projected $11.4MM salary isn’t all that prohibitive, especially to the big-market clubs that are looking for elite relief help this winter. Controlled for two more seasons, Britton could fetch the Orioles enough young talent to immediately plug multiple holes on the roster while also bolstering the farm system. The Orioles might not be offered enough to make the deal palatable, Olney notes, but with three top-tier relievers on the market (Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen, Mark Melancon) but far more suitors looking for dynamic late-inning arms, the Orioles should at least be dangling Britton on the trade market to see if an overwhelming offer surfaces.
- Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News opines that the Yankees should focus on Mike Napoli rather than Carlos Beltran if they’re eyeing a veteran bat to spend time at DH. Napoli, like Beltran, can be had on a short-term deal — likely two years at the most — and would provide some insurance at first base for Greg Bird, who is returning from shoulder surgery. Beltran can’t offer that luxury, Feinsand notes, and at age 40 he might be looking for a more clear-cut World Series contender than the Yankees.
- Although Tim Beckham was sent home by the Rays at the end of the 2016 season, prompting some to speculate that his time with the team could be drawing to a close, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times wrote this weekend that Beckham now looks to be part of the 2017 picture, thanks largely to his defensive ability. Topkin also expanded a bit on Tampa Bay’s interest in Jason Castro, noting that while the catcher’s agent told him recently that the Rays are “in the thick of things” with regard to Castro, it’s not characteristic for the Rays to win a free-agent bidding war. A three-year commitment north of $20MM seems unlikely to come from the Rays, Topkin writes, which leads him to wonder if the team might instead pursue a trade for Miguel Montero, assuming the Cubs would be willing to include some salary in the deal.
Dodgers Interested In Logan Forsythe
Having already checked in on Ian Kinsler and Brian Dozier, the second-base needy Dodgers are now interested in the Rays’ Logan Forsythe, reports Jon Morosi of MLB Network. Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman previously traded for Forsythe when he was the Rays’ general manager in 2014, notes Morosi (Twitter links). It’s unclear whether Tampa Bay is currently open to dealing him, though.
Forsythe, who will turn 30 in January, has quietly established himself as a high-end second baseman dating back to 2015. In 1,182 plate appearances since then, Forsythe has batted .273/.347/.444 with 37 home runs and 15 stolen bases, and his 6.8 fWAR during that span places him ninth among the league’s second basemen. Most of the damage the right-handed Forsythe has done the past two years has come against lefties (.287/.350/.543 in 317 PAs), which surely appeals to a Dodgers team that posted a league-worst .213/.290/.332 line versus southpaws in 2016.
Like Kinsler and Dozier, Forsythe is controllable through the 2018 campaign, though he’s set to rake in less money than those two and shouldn’t cost as much to acquire in a trade. Forsythe – who’s due $14.25MM (including an $8.5MM club option for 2018) – has also seen action at third base, where the Dodgers have an opening as Justin Turner sits without a contract. The lion’s share of Forsythe’s playing time has come at second, though, and the Dodgers could clearly use a solution there with Chase Utley on the open market and Howie Kendrick now in Philadelphia.
Padres, Rays, Athletics Interested In Eric Thames
Free agent outielder Eric Thames has drawn interest from the Padres, Rays and Athletics (as Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle previously reported), according to Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com. Thames, who has starred in Korea since 2014, previously saw major league action with the Blue Jays and Mariners from 2011-12.
Thames, 30, was so-so in his two-year major league stint, hitting .250/.296/.431 with 21 home runs in 684 plate appearances, but he could cash in this winter thanks to his phenomenal showing with the NC Dinos of the hitter-friendly KBO. Thames swatted at least 37 homers in each of the previous three seasons, including 47 in an MVP-winning 2015, giving him a combined 124 since he immigrated to Korea. All told, he has slashed a videogamelike .348/.450/.720 in 1,634 plate appearances and also added 64 stolen bases on 78 attempts since leaving America.
Assuming he returns to the States, MLBTR projects a two-year, $10MM deal for Thames (from the Rays, in fact), but one National League executive told Crasnick he could fare even better than that.
“Look at some of the money that Cuban players have gotten,” said the exec. “What’s the difference here? I think somebody is going to bite, and he’ll get a contract for two years and $12 million, or three years and $15-18 million.”
Thames, a California native, acknowledged that he has contemplated another major league go-around.
“Yes, the thought has crossed my mind a few times,” Thames told Crasnick via email. “I’m wondering about how my new mindset could transfer over. Next year feels like light years away! Who knows where I will end up.”
Re-signing in Korea or heading to Japan are also possibilities for Thames, who might not exclusively play the outfield in a second major league stint. Thames moved to first in Korea, notes Crasnick, and the lefty-swinger would likely spend time there, in the outfield and, if he signs with an American League team, at designated hitter. With Wil Myers at first and no DH, the Padres would have to to utilize Thames in the outfield, while the hitter-needy Rays and A’s would have more flexibility in deploying him.