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Rays’ Taj Bradley To Open Season On Injured List

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Rays right-hander Taj Bradley, who underwent an MRI after being scratched from yesterday’s spring start, will open the season on the 15-day injured list after being diagnosed with a pectoral strain, manager Kevin Cash announced this morning (X links via Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times). Bradley will be shut down from throwing entirely for “at least” the next two weeks and will be reevaluated at that point. Even in a best-case scenario where he’s cleared to resume throwing at that point, he’d need to build back up and go on a minor league rehab assignment before he’s an option to rejoin the big league rotation.

Bradley’s pec strain is the latest in a series of health troubles for a Rays rotation that is among the most talented in the sport but is also currently among the most injury-ravaged. He’ll join Shane McClanahan (Tommy John surgery in August), Jeffrey Springs (Tommy John surgery in April) and Drew Rasmussen (internal brace surgery in July) on the injured list for a Tampa Bay club that is still awaiting the return of former top pitching prospect Shane Baz, who underwent his own Tommy John procedure in 2022.

On the surface, Bradley’s loss may not seem critical. The 22-year-old debuted to considerable fanfare in 2023 but turned in an uneven season, ultimately finishing the year with a 5.59 ERA in 104 2/3 big league frames. For a pitcher who entered the season widely considered among the sport’s top 50 to 75 overall prospects, it wasn’t the most exciting debut. Bradley had his share of strong performances but struggled more often than not in his first taste of the majors.

Despite the shaky bottom-line run prevention numbers, however, Bradley offered plenty of reason for optimism. His 28% strikeout rate is well north of the league average, while his 8.5% walk rate is solid. He averaged a strong 96.2 mph on his heater and posted slightly better-than-average marks in swinging-strike rate (11.3%) and opponents’ chase rate (32%). His primary issue last year, both in the big leagues and in Triple-A, was seeing an inordinate percentage of his fly-balls end up leaving the yard (19.2% in the majors, 23.1% in 10 Triple-A starts).

That hasn’t been an issue for Bradley at all in the past, however, even in his first run through the Triple-A level in 2022. Prior to the ’23 season, Bradley actually had posted a considerably lower-than-average HR/FB mark throughout his minor league career. Metrics like xFIP and SIERA, which normalize a pitcher’s HR/FB rate, viewed him in a far more favorable light (3.83 and 3.82, respectively). And with 142 1/3 innings pitched in 2023, Bradley was set to enter the 2024 season without any real limits on his workload. A breakout season seemed quite plausible.

Any such steps forward will be placed on hold indefinitely for the time being, which is a major setback for a Rays club that’s already uncharacteristically thin on rotation depth. Tampa Bay will enter the season with Zach Eflin, Aaron Civale and converted reliever Zack Littell in the top three spots of the rotation. Twenty-six-year-old Ryan Pepiot, acquired from the Dodgers in the Tyler Glasnow trade, will likely grab the No. 4 spot on the staff. He’s long been a touted prospect himself and carries excellent results in the majors to date, but injuries have regularly limited him as well. He opened 2023 on the 60-day IL with a Grade 2 oblique strain and pitched just 64 2/3 frames overall.

Rotation alternatives in camp include Jacob Lopez, Tyler Alexander and Chris Devenski, all of whom are on the 40-man roster. Alexander has started games for the Tigers in the past and had been ticketed for a swingman role with Tampa Bay, but he could conceivably get a look early in ’24 now. He and Devenski were both being stretched out to handle at least three innings at a time in camp anyhow, and either could be pushed beyond that point.

In terms of non-roster players, former NPB starter Naoyuki Uwasawa and prospect Mason Montgomery are the most interesting candidate names in the group. Uwasawa, 30, has a career 3.19 ERA in nine NPB seasons and tossed 170 innings of 2.96 ERA ball for the Nippon-Ham Fighters in 2023, but he’s a soft-tosser with sub-par strikeout rates even in Japan. He’s been rocked for 13 runs in just 5 2/3 innings in spring training thus far. Montgomery, meanwhile, has just 16 innings above the Double-A level under his belt and has been tagged for three runs in his 4 1/3 spring frames.

Cash indicated that the Rays will consider several in-house options to replace Bradley in the rotation, though another injury on an already thinly stretched pitching staff will undoubtedly lead to both speculation and some internal discussions about adding from outside the organization. The Rays’ projected $99MM Opening Day payroll (via RosterResource), somewhat incredibly, is already a franchise-record for the club. That casts doubt on whether they’d even be able to bring in one of the second-tier remaining arms in free agency, such as Michael Lorenzen or Mike Clevinger.

That said, there will also be several veteran arms on minor league deals elsewhere in the league who’ll likely opt out in the latter stages of camp, plus a slew of pitchers made available via DFA and waivers as other clubs set their Opening Day rosters. It wouldn’t be terribly surprising to see the Rays add some extra depth in some form between now and Opening Day, particularly if they begin to get the sense that Bradley’s injury will require a longer shutdown period than that best-case outlook of two weeks.

Taj Bradley To Undergo MRI Due To Pectoral Tightness

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Right-hander Taj Bradley was scheduled to start today’s Grapefruit League contest for the Rays but was a late scratch. The righty is dealing with pectoral tightness and will get an MRI, per Kristie Ackert of the Tampa Bay Times (X links).

At this point, it’s unclear if the club considers the issue to be severe or if scratching Bradley was more precautionary, but the MRI suggests at least some level of concern. For the time being, it will likely be a source of worry for the club and its fans, especially with the precarious nature of the club’s rotation depth.

Last year, each of Jeffrey Springs, Drew Rasmussen and Shane McClanahan underwent a UCL surgery of some kind. McClanahan is likely to miss the entire 2024 season while Rasmussen and Springs are likely looking at midseason returns. In addition to those injuries, the club also flipped Tyler Glasnow to the Dodgers in a cost-cutting move.

Coming into 2024, the Tampa rotation projects as Zach Eflin, Aaron Civale, Zack Littell, Ryan Pepiot and Bradley, with plenty of question marks in that group. Eflin made 31 starts last year but has battled persistent knee issues in his career and 2023 was just his second time getting over 130 innings in a season. Civale has dealt with various ailments, including shoulder, forearm and wrist injuries, having never hit 125 frames in any big league season of his career. Littell has primarily been a reliever and was only moved to a rotation gig by the Rays last year. Pepiot, acquired in the Glasnow deal, has been a notable prospect but has less than 80 big league innings to his name. His 127 2/3 innings in 2022, between the majors and minors, are his personal high.

Bradley came into 2023 as one of the club’s better prospects but didn’t hit the ground running in the big leagues. He posted a 5.59 earned run average in 104 2/3 frames last year, despite strong strikeout and walk rates of 28% and 8.5%, respectively. He may have been hampered by a 67.7% strand rate but his 23 home runs allowed on the season also may have played a role in that. ERA estimators remained fairly bullish that he deserved better than his bottom line results, as he had a 4.79 FIP and 3.82 SIERA last year.

Regardless of how one interprets last year’s results, Bradley clearly came into camp as a key part of the rotation mix. With the absences of McClanahan, Rasmussen and Springs and the general uncertainty around the healthy options, Bradley was clearly going to be in the plans in Tampa.

If he ends up needing to miss any time, the club will have to dig even further into its starting depth. Shane Baz is on the roster but will be facing workload limitations this year after he missed all of 2023 recovering from Tommy John surgery. Japanese hurler Naoyuki Uwasawa is in camp on a minor league deal but there were concerns about his viability in the majors and he has allowed 13 earned runs in 5 2/3 spring innings thus far. Jacob Lopez is also on the 40-man but has just 12 1/3 innings of major league work thus far.

There’s a fair amount of precarity in that group overall and any further subtractions will only exacerbate the situation, so the club will surely be hoping that the MRI doesn’t find anything terribly concerning for Bradley’s health.

Rays Option Junior Caminero

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The Rays optioned top infield prospect Junior Caminero to Triple-A Durham among their camp cuts this afternoon, writes Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. That takes him out of the mix for an Opening Day roster spot.

Caminero always seemed like a long shot to secure a season-opening big league job. The Rays promoted the 20-year-old directly from Double-A last September. Caminero played in seven regular season games and was available off the bench for the team’s Wild Card series against the Rangers. While that at least put him on the radar for a potential Opening Day spot, the likelier outcome has been that he’d head to Durham for the first time.

Tampa Bay added a pair of shortstops over the winter. Trade pickup José Caballero will get the starting nod, while the Rays took a $1.5MM flier on Amed Rosario as a right-handed hitter who can bounce around the diamond. Isaac Paredes should get the majority of the third base reps with Yandy Díaz at the opposite corner. Curtis Mead is another righty bat who can move around the infield. Mead isn’t yet established at the MLB level but turned in an excellent .294/.385/.515 slash line over 61 Triple-A contests a year ago.

While Caminero is light on upper level experience, he has destroyed opposing pitching through Double-A. The right-handed hitter owns a .316/.383/.555 mark in three minor league campaigns, including a .324/.384/.591 line between High-A and Double-A a year ago. Baseball America, FanGraphs, The Athletic’s Keith Law and ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel all rank him among the sport’s five most talented prospects.

Caminero has experience at all four infield positions. Most scouting reports indicate he’s best suited for third base. That may eventually lead the Rays to consider trade possibilities with Paredes, whom they control via arbitration for another four seasons. That’s not something with which they’ll need to concern themselves before Opening Day.

The minor league assignment is likely to have an impact on Caminero’s service trajectory. He accrued 10 days of MLB service after his September promotion. Caminero would need to be on the MLB roster for 162 days if he’s to surpass the one-year threshold in 2024. Spending more than a few weeks in Durham would prevent him from reaching that mark (unless he plays his way into a full service year with a top-two finish in Rookie of the Year balloting). That’s not an indication the Rays are gaming Caminero’s service time — there’s clearly legitimate developmental reason to get him time in Triple-A — but it’s a notable effect all the same.

Jonny DeLuca Suffers Right Hand Fracture

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Rays outfielder Jonny DeLuca was hit by a pitch during today’s game against the Red Sox, which took place in the Dominican Republic as part of this spring’s Dominican Republic Series. Per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times, DeLuca was diagnosed with a broken right hand after undergoing an x-ray at a local hospital. Though Topkin notes that DeLuca is expected to undergo further evaluation when the club returns to Florida, he also adds that the typical recovery time for such an injury is “at least” 4-6 weeks.

The injury news is a notable blow to a Rays that club figured to carry DeLuca as a right-handed complement to the likes of Jonathan Aranda and Josh Lowe in the outfield and DH mix headed into the regular season. Acquired from the Dodgers alongside right-hander Ryan Pepiot in the Tyler Glasnow trade back in December, DeLuca has just 45 big league plate appearances under his belt after hitting a roughly league average .262/.311/.429 in a cup of coffee with the Dodgers last summer but figured to have a larger role with the Rays this season, particularly given the departures of outfield options Luke Raley and Manuel Margot via trade this winter. Those plans have been scuttled for the time being, however, as DeLuca now figures to miss at least the first few weeks of the regular season.

With DeLuca out of action to open the season, the Rays may find themselves less inclined to move right-handed slugger Harold Ramirez, who saw his name enter the rumor mill this winter but has remained in Tampa to this point. While the Rays are hardly averse to late-spring deals, having acquired Ramirez himself from the Cubs just before Opening Day 2022, the loss of DeLuca leaves the Rays short on outfield options to pair with the starting trio of Randy Arozarena, Jose Siri, and Josh Lowe. Ramirez can offer some insurance at the outfield corners while pairing well alongside Aranda at DH; while Aranda is a left-handed hitter who has hit a paltry .077/.250/.077 in limited playing time against southpaws in the big leagues, Ramirez crushed them to the tune of a .387/.411/.555 slash line last year.

Of course, Ramirez was already all but assured of a roster spot entering the season unless the club managed to work out a trade, taking a spot on the bench alongside Amed Rosario and a back-up catcher such as Francisco Mejia or Alex Jackson. While DeLuca previously appeared to be a strong contender for that final spot on the bench, the club may now look to a young infielder such as Curtis Mead or Osleivis Basabe to replace DeLuca’s right-handed bat on the bench. Both Mead and Basabe made their major league debuts last year but posted below-average offensive numbers in brief cups of coffee with the big league club.

If Tampa is content with Ramirez and Rosario as bench options against southpaws, however, the club could instead look to shore up its outfield mix by turning to a lefty-swinging outfielder such as Richie Palacios or Greg Jones for its final bench spot. The switch-hitting Jones has yet to make his major league debut but hit well at the Triple-A level last year with a .278/.344/.468 slash line in 51 games, while Palacios impressed with a 120 wRC+  in 102 trips to the plate with the Cardinals last year. Both Jones and Palacios boast experience in both the infield and the outfield, offering positional flexibility that could improve their value in a bench role for the club.

Mike Zunino Announces Retirement

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Former big league catcher Mike Zunino announced his retirement today, via an Instagram post from his reps at Wasserman Baseball. Hat tip to Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times.

Mike Zunino | Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports“With profound gratitude, I am announcing my retirement from Major League Baseball after 11 seasons,” Zunino says in the post. “As I reflect on my career, I am appreciative of the support of the baseball community and those who have guided me along the way.” He goes on to thank the Mariners, Rays and Guardians, their fans, the MLBPA, team staff and teammates, as well as his advisors, representatives and family members. “While my time on the field has concluded, my passion for baseball remains as strong as ever, and I eagerly anticipate exploring new avenues to contribute to the sport. I am excited to bring what I have learned in the game to the next generation of MLB players, and to give back to the game that has given so much to me.”

Zunino was a trumpeted prospect over a decade ago. He was selected third overall by the Mariners in the 2012 draft, with only Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton going ahead of him. He secured a $4MM signing bonus and, just a few months later, Baseball America ranked him the #1 Mariners’ prospect and the #17 prospect in all of baseball going into 2013. He started that year at Triple-A but was up in the majors by June. He missed some time due to a broken hand and only got into 52 big league games, hitting just .214/.290/.329 in that time.

He got his first full season in the majors in 2014 and showed some of the mixed results that would go on to be trademarks of his career. One of the positives was his glovework, as he posted eight Defensive Runs Saved that year. FanGraphs also considered his framing to be really strong, one of the top five backstops in the majors for the season. On offense, he launched 22 home runs but also had some less-exciting elements. His batting average was just .199 and his on-base percentage only .254, thanks to a 3.6% walk rate. He was also struck out in 33.2% of his plate appearances. His 87 wRC+ indicates his offense was subpar overall but he nonetheless was considered to be worth 3.8 wins above replacement by FanGraphs, thanks largely to the defense.

Over the next couple of years, his struggles with strikeouts and low batting averages continued and he was optioned to the minors from time to time. He seemed to take a step forward in 2017, when he walked in 9% of his plate appearances and hit 25 home runs. But he still struck out at a 36.8% rate and his results dipped again in 2018.

Going into 2019, he had two years of club control remaining but was traded to the Rays as part of a five-player swap. His first season in Tampa didn’t go especially well, as a quad strain and an oblique strain limited him to just 90 games in which he hit .165/.232/.312. In the shortened 2020 season, he missed time due to another oblique strain and and struck out in 44% of his 84 plate appearances across 28 games.

Despite the offensive struggles, the Rays clearly valued his defense and work with a pitching staff as the club went all the way to the World Series in 2020. Zunino reached free agency after that but the club brought him back via a one-year, $3MM deal with a club option for 2022.

He would be in arguably the best form of his career in 2021. The Rays limited his workload to 109 games but he still managed to launch 33 home runs and make the American League All-Star team. His strikeout rate was still high at 35.2% but he also walked at a 9.1% clip. His .216/.301/.559 batting line translated to a wRC+ of 133 and he tallied 4.5 fWAR. That’s just behind the 4.6 fWAR he produced in 2017, though that was in a larger sample of 124 games.

The club option for 2022 came with a base value of $4MM but had escalators that could push it to $7MM if he got into 100 games, which he did. After that monster campaign, the Rays triggered the $7MM option to keep him around but 2022 turned out to be a frustrating year for him. He hit just .148/195/.304 through 36 before landing on the injured list and requiring surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome.

The Guardians took a shot on a bounceback, signing Zunino to a one-year, $6MM deal for 2023. But Zunino struck out in 43.6% of his plate appearances and was hitting .177/.271/.306 when he was released in June. He didn’t sign elsewhere in the final months of the season.

Though he clearly had a lopsided profile, Zunino was incredibly skilled in certain areas. He retires with a .199 batting average and .271 on-base percentage, but he launched 149 home runs and racked up 18.3 fWAR thanks to 46 Defensive Runs Saved. He was often cited for his role as a clubhouse leader and could perhaps parlay that skill into future coaching opportunities. Based on his retirement statement, it sounds like he may pursue that line of work at some point. We at MLBTR salute Zunino on a fine playing career and wish him the best with whatever comes next.

Brendan McKay Makes Spring Debut

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  • Rays southpaw Brendan McKay made his first professional appearance since undergoing Tommy John surgery late in the 2022 season today, and Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times spoke to the lefty following the appearance. Per Topkin, McKay expressed satisfaction with his progress, indicating that his curveball is “getting better” while his fastball, which Topkin adds sat at 90 while touching 91, is “in a good spot” to gain more velocity going forward. McKay typically sat at 94 with his heater when he last pitched in the majors in 2019, though the former top prospect and fourth-overall pick of the 2017 draft has dealt with both Tommy John surgery and Thoracic Outlet Syndrome since then. Once a consensus top-30 prospect in the sport, it’s easy to imagine McKay impacting the club’s pitching staff at some point this season if he can remain healthy.

Which Is The Best Team In The AL East?

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Just over a week ago, MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald discussed the National League Central, which is arguably MLB’s most tightly-contested division. While no other division compares to that projected dogfight, the American League East provides the Central with a worthy rival in that regard as the only other division that Baseball Prospectus’s PECOTA projects to not include a 90-loss team. Indeed, there’s an argument to be made that the battle for the AL East this year figures to be even more hotly contested. After all, PECOTA projects both the Pirates and Reds to finish with a lower win total than any of the teams in the AL East, while Fangraphs projects the East as the only division in the majors without a sub-.500 club.

That projection systems see the AL East as a division with five potential contenders is supported by last year’s results. The Orioles led the pack last season with a 101-win record, capturing the division title despite a strong showing from the Rays, who finished two games behind Baltimore. Both Tampa and Toronto also managed to make the postseason last year, while New York and Boston both remained on the periphery of the playoff picture into September despite ultimately coming up short. Since then, each club has seen significant changes, and with the likes of Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery still on the market, it’s easy to imagine one or more of these club’s further improving their stock prior to Opening Day. In the meantime, let’s take a look at where things stand in the American League’s most competitive division:

Orioles: 101-61 in 2023, FG projects 85 wins in 2024, PECOTA 86.2

The Orioles were perhaps the most surprising team in baseball last year, surging to the club’s first AL East title since the 2014 season thanks to contributions from youngsters like Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman, and Grayson Rodriguez. Those same young players will be back this season and figure to be joined by consensus #1 overall prospect Jackson Holliday at some point this season, perhaps as soon as Opening Day. The club’s exciting young core figures to once again be complemented by solid veterans such as Cedric Mullins and Anthony Santander as well, giving them a strong offensive nucleus with which to attempt to continue their reign atop the East.

With that being said, the club has seen some turnover this winter. Veteran starter Kyle Gibson departed the rotation via free agency this winter, and while the club swung a deal earlier this offseason to acquire former Brewers ace Corbin Burnes to front their rotation, dealing away promising southpaw DL Hall and infielder Joey Ortiz could be something of a blow to the club’s depth headed into the season. More noticeably, two key pitchers from the 2023 season are entering the season with significant injuries: closer Felix Bautista underwent Tommy John surgery late last year and figures to miss all of the 2024 campaign, while right-hander Kyle Bradish faces a lengthy absence of his own due to a UCL issue after leading the Baltimore rotation last season with a sterling 2.83 ERA across 30 starts.

While the injuries faced by Bradish and Bautista leave the Orioles without two of their top pitchers to open the season, the additions of Burnes and veteran closer Craig Kimbrel should help to soften those blows, and with youngsters such as Holliday, Cade Povich, and Coby Mayo all on the verge of contributing at the big league level, there’s plenty of reason to believe Baltimore can remain in the upper echelon of the league headed into 2024 as long as the club’s young stars can avoid taking a step back this season.

Rays: 99-63 in 2023, FG projects 86 wins in 2024, PECOTA 86.9

The Rays started the 2023 campaign on an incredible hot streak, winning a record-breaking 13 consecutive games to open the season last year thanks to strong pitching performances from the likes of Jeffrey Springs, Drew Rasmussen, and Shane McClanahan. Unfortunately, each of those aforementioned arms underwent season-ending surgery last year and are expected to miss at least the first half of the 2024 campaign, if not longer. Tampa’s rotation mix was further weakened by the club dealing right-hander Tyler Glasnow to the Dodgers back in December, leaving the club with little certainty in the starting mix outside of Zach Eflin and Aaron Civale. Another major loss from a production standpoint is shortstop Wander Franco, who posted 4.6 fWAR in 112 games last year but is facing sexual abuse charges in his native Dominican Republic that put his future in the majors in doubt.

Even with that hefty number of losses, however, the Rays still figure to be a force to be reckoned with headed into 2024. After all, the club sports one of the deepest lineups in the game, led by the likes of Yandy Diaz, Brandon Lowe, Isaac Paredes and Randy Arozarena. In addition to that group, the club sports plenty of young talent with the likes of Junior Caminero, Josh Lowe, and Curtis Mead all expected to contribute at the big league level at some point this season on the positional side. Meanwhile, the pitching staff boasts intriguing youngsters like Taj Bradley, Shane Baz, and offseason acquisition Ryan Pepiot, each of whom are likely to join Civale and Eflin as rotation pieces this season. The club’s perennially excellent bullpen continues to look strong as well, with a back-end trio of Pete Fairbanks, Jason Adam, and Colin Poche bolstered by offseason additions such as Phil Maton.

Given the number of significant absences the Rays are facing entering the season, it’s not necessarily surprising that projections systems expect the club to take a major step back in 2024. The club figures to rely on the likes of Jose Caballero and Taylor Walls in place of Franco at short and young, unproven arms like Bradley and Pepiot in place of established power arms like McClanahan and Rasmussen. Even so, the club’s deep lineup and strong bullpen figure to keep the club in contention for the AL East crown this season, particularly if the youngsters in the rotation find success in the big leagues.

Blue Jays: 89-73 in 2023, FG projects 85 wins in 2024, PECOTA 88.6

The 2023 season was a strange one in Toronto, as key stars such as Alejandro Kirk, George Springer, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. took steps back at the plate to leave the club with a surprisingly tepid offense. That didn’t stop the Jays from contending last year, however, as the club managed to sneak into the final AL Wild Card spot with an 89-win campaign thanks to a strong performance from the club’s starting rotation. Kevin Gausman, Jose Berrios, Yusei Kikuchi, and Chris Bassitt each combined to give the club above-average production while making more than 30 starts a piece, and veteran southpaw Hyun-Jin Ryu managed to step into the rotation and provide solid back-end production when youngster Alek Manoah struggled badly throughout the season.

Entering the offseason, the club seemed poised to make big changes as they were connected to the likes of Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto, though they ultimately ended up having a much quieter offseason. After watching the likes of Matt Chapman and Brandon Belt depart in free agency, the club brought in the likes of Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Justin Turner to fill the void at third base and DH while adding to their pitching depth with the addition of Yariel Rodriguez. Those minor moves leave the club likely to look for internal improvements as they hope to return to the postseason in 2024. Some of that improvement could come from the club’s young talent, with top pitching prospect Ricky Tiedemann likely to debut sometime this year while the likes of Davis Schneider and Ernie Clement figure to attempt to establish themselves in larger roles.

While the club’s lineup took a bit of a hit this winter after a disappointing 2023 campaign, a robust pitching staff figures to keep the Blue Jays afloat this season even if the offense fails to take a step forward. It’s easy to imagine the club returning to the postseason in 2024 if stars like Bo Bichette, Guerrero, and Springer can deliver impactful performances, especially if the club gets strong production from its supporting cast of hitters like Turner, Schneider, and Daulton Varsho.

Yankees: 82-80 in 2023, FG projects 89 wins in 2024, PECOTA 94.7

After missing the postseason for the first time since 2017 and barely escaping the 2023 season with a winning record, the Yankees wasted no time this winter in looking to improve the club’s postseason chances for year two of Aaron Judge’s nine-year megadeal with the club. That included a complete retool of the club’s outfield mix as the club acquired Juan Soto, Trent Grisham, and Alex Verdugo to complement Judge on the outfield grass while balancing a lineup that leaned too right-handed in 2023. The blockbuster deal for Soto and Grisham cost the club plenty of big league pitching talent, including the likes of Michael King and Randy Vasquez, though New York went on to patch up the club’s starting rotation by landing veteran right-hander Marcus Stroman in free agency.

That lengthy offseason shopping list seems likely to leave them in strong position to contend this season even as they lost the likes of Luis Severino, Harrison Bader, and King from last year’s club. Even as the club added a quality mid-rotation arm, solid outfield regulars, and a superstar bat to its mix, however, it’s possible the club’s most impactful improvements could come internally after the club dealt with a hefty number of injuries last year. Judge followed up his 2022 AL MVP-winning performance with another season that saw him post an OPS north of 1.000 in 2023, though he was limited to just 106 games by a toe injury. Meanwhile, southpaws Nestor Cortes and Carlos Rodon both struggled badly with injuries and ineffectiveness last year but still carry front-of-the-rotation upside when healthy, while veteran hitters like Stanton and Anthony Rizzo could also benefit from improved health this season and rebound from difficult 2023 campaigns.

Of all the clubs in the AL East, it’s easy to make the argument that the Yankees did the most to improve this winter. While even those additions may not be enough to catch up to the club’s divisional rivals on their own after an 82-win campaign, improved health from the club’s key regulars both on the mound and in the lineup could certainly help the club avoid missing the postseason in back-to-back campaigns for the first time since the 2013 and ’14 seasons.

Red Sox: 78-84 in 2023, FG projects 81 wins in 2024, PECOTA 79.2

It’s been a strange offseason in Boston, as the club began the winter with promises of a “full throttle” approach to the 2024 season and a goal of improving the club’s rotation. Despite those major plans, the club has generally opted for smaller moves throughout the winter. Perhaps the club’s most notable move was parting ways with longtime ace Chris Sale in a trade that netted the club young infielder Vaughn Grissom, while Sale’s spot atop the club’s rotation appears poised to go to right-hander Lucas Giolito.

The club also added outfielder Tyler O’Neill in a trade with the Cardinals while signing veteran closer Liam Hendriks to a two-year deal, though the righty won’t impact the team until the second half at the earliest as he recovers from Tommy John surgery. Those moves more or less leave the club in a similar position as they were last season, with Giolito replacing Sale while O’Neill and Grissom figure to replace Adam Duvall and Turner in the club’s lineup. While the club’s most significant offseason losses have been replaced in one form or another, other departures such as those of James Paxton, Alex Verdugo, and John Schreiber have all gone unanswered to this point in the winter.

Despite the club’s many question marks, there’s some reason for optimism in Boston, thanks to the young talent that could impact the club this year. In addition to Grissom serving as a potential solution at second base, Triston Casas, Jarren Duran, and Brayan Bello took significant steps forward last year and could prove to be core pieces for the club, while youngsters like Wilyer Abreu and Ceddanne Rafaela could also impact the club this season after making brief cameos in the majors last year. It’s certainly possible to imagine Trevor Story returning to the form that once made him a star with the Rockies now that he’s further removed from the elbow troubles that cost him much of last season, and Masataka Yoshida could be an impactful bat if he can recreate his performance from the first half of 2023 over the full season this year. Meanwhile, the rotation features a handful of interesting youngsters such as Tanner Houck, Garrett Whitlock, and Kutter Crawford, any of whom could prove to be an impactful arm if they manage to take a step forward this year.

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On the heels of a 2023 season that saw three of the division’s five teams make the postseason and its fifth-place finisher end the season with a better record than the fourth place finishers of four other divisions, it’s perhaps not a surprise that the AL East figures to once again be among the most competitive divisions in baseball this year. After a busy offseason in the division, which team do you think will come out on top? Was the Yankees’ splashy offseason to put them back in the driver’s seat? Will another year of development for the young players in Baltimore allow them to repeat their dominant 2023 campaign? Will the deep rosters of the Rays or Blue Jays manage to outlast the competition? Or could the Red Sox outperform the projections and take the division on the back of their young players and rebound candidates?

Which team in the AL East is best? Have your say in the poll below!

Yu Chang Out Six To Eight Weeks With Oblique Strain

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  • The Rays lost one of their depth infielders to what’ll be a fairly significant injury. Yu Chang will be out six to eight weeks after suffering an oblique strain, manager Kevin Cash told Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (relayed on X). That was the concern when the team revealed that Chang was dealing with left side soreness earlier in the week. The defensive specialist is in camp on a minor league contract. He had a shot at securing an Opening Day bench spot, particularly with Taylor Walls opening the season on the IL, but that’s no longer in play. The Rays have declared José Caballero their expected starter at shortstop. Recent free agent pickup Amed Rosario is on hand as a multi-positional option who’d likely be Caballero’s primary backup.

Rays Notes: Lowe, Chang, Littell

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The Rays are shutting down outfielder Josh Lowe from all baseball activity for the next six days due to inflammation in his left hip, reports Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Lowe could be out of games for up to 15 days while he lets the issue calm down, but manager Kevin Cash tells Topkin that the team is “not overly concerned” and doesn’t think Lowe is in jeopardy of missing Opening Day.

The 26-year-old Lowe had a breakout 2023 season, slashing .292/.335/.500 with 20 homers, 32 stolen bases and quality defense across all three outfield spots (primarily right field). The majority of his playing time came against right-handed pitching, though Lowe wasn’t completely overmatched even in 67 left-on-left matchups (.238/.284/.429). He’s expected to be in the lineup on a near-everyday basis in 2024, so while the team and player are both projecting confidence he’ll be ready for the start of the season, his progression from the current hip issue is worth watching with a careful eye. If Lowe were to wind up missing time, Jonny DeLuca and Richie Palacios would be among the options to step up.

Also ailing is non-roster invitee Yu Chang, who’ll be down at least two weeks with an oblique injury, per the Times’ Kristie Ackert (X link). If testing reveals a strain of any note, there’s a chance Chang could miss the remainder of camp, as even Grade 1 oblique strains regularly shelve players for a month or more. Cash seems to be anticipating an absence of some note, calling the injury “unfortunate” and noting that Chang will likely “miss some time” (via Topkin’s column).

The slick-fielding Chang went 1-for-3 with a homer to begin his spring tenure with the Rays as he competes for what would be his second MLB stint with the team. As a career .204/.269/.359 hitter in 650 big league plate appearances, Chang would seem unlikely to provide the Rays with much at the plate — should be make the team. However, he’s a strong and versatile defender, with at least 300 innings and quality defensive ratings at all four infield spots.

Like Chang, right-hander Zack Littell is no stranger to coming to big league camp and fighting for a job. This spring is different for the 28-year-old, however, as he’s locked into a rotation spot for the first time in his career. He spoke with MLB.com’s Adam Berry about the freedom that gives him to experiment with tweaks to his pitches, mechanics, etc. without fearing poor results will cost him a job.

“It’s nice to have a true six weeks where … you can go out there and you can really play with this stuff and find what works, and either run with it or say, ’Hey, we’re going the wrong direction,'” Littell said.

Though he was a starter in the upper minors and a well-regarded prospect with the Mariners, Yankees and Twins, Littell quickly settled into a relief role in the majors and has since begun to bounce around the league via a series of DFAs and waiver claims. The Rays claimed him from the Red Sox last May, initially deploying him in his familiar bullpen role, but stretched Littell back out closer to the trade deadline as injuries on the pitching staff mounted.

Few could’ve predicted just how well what looked like a desperation move wound up panning out. Over a span of 11 starts, Littell posted a 3.38 ERA in 65 innings of work. That mark was propped up by a .262 average on balls in play and 77% strand rate; paired with a sub-par strikeout rate, it led metrics like FIP (4.04) and SIERA (4.26) to take a bit more of a bearish outlook on Littell’s contributions. It’s also worth wondering whether he can sustain the sensational 1.9% walk rate — more than six percentage points south of his career mark — he turned in during that time.

Regardless, Littell pitched his way into an opportunity to show he can sustain success out of a big league rotation. Cash made perfectly clear that he’ll be given every chance to do so, telling Berry that Littell is currently in line to start the team’s second or third game of the season.

If the Rays have pulled yet another rabbit out of their hat on the starting pitching front and can successfully keep Littell productive in his new role, it’ll prove to be an affordable, multi-year solution. As a player with 4.043 years of MLB service, Littell is under club control through 2025. And with his limited big league track record to date, this year’s arbitration salary clocked in at a modest $1.85MM. If he can indeed sustain some of last year’s rotation success, he could hold a spot in the rotation into next season, when he’d likely still cost the club under $5MM.

Rays Re-Sign Francisco Mejia To Minor League Deal

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10:40am: The deal is now official. The Rays announced Mejia has been signed to a minor league pact and invited to spring training.

10:00am: The Rays are finalizing a deal to bring free agent catcher Francisco Mejia back to the organization, reports Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. It’ll be a minor league contract with an invite to spring training for the ISE client. Mejia was granted his release from a minor league deal with the Angels last month.

Tampa Bay currently plans to deploy defensive standout Rene Pinto as its starting catcher, and non-roster invitee Alex Jackson has been expected to serve as his backup. Topkin adds that those plans remain unchanged even with Mejia on the brink of returning to the organization he played for from 2021-23. Mejia will give the Rays a depth option behind that unproven tandem for the time being. Injuries or poor performances — either in spring training or early in the season — can always change that equation, of course.

The 28-year-old Mejia was once considered one of baseball’s top all-around prospects, but he’s yet to hit at the big league level despite a strong .306/.350/.519 track record at the Triple-A level (633 plate appearances). In 1098 plate appearances in the majors, Mejia owns a tepid .239/.284/.394 slash between three organizations (Cleveland, San Diego, Tampa Bay). The switch-hitter has been twice traded in the past, going from Cleveland to San Diego in 2018’s Brad Hand trade and from San Diego to Tampa Bay in 2020’s Blake Snell trade.

Mejia’s first season with the Rays showed some promise. He hit .260/.322/.416 with six homers and a hefty 22 doubles in just 299 trips to the plate. Things have gone south since that encouraging Rays debut, however, as his bat has faded while his defensive grades have dropped off precipitously. Mejia has long graded as a below-average framer, and in 2023 he threw out just four of 42 runners attempting to steal against him. Statcast also ranks him as one of the least-effective catchers in the game when it comes to blocking pitches in the dirt.

Those shortcomings notwithstanding, Mejia is a switch-hitter with an excellent offensive track record in the upper minors, and the Rays are thinner at catcher than the majority of teams in the sport. Pinto, Jackson and 34-year-old non-roster invitee Rob Brantly are the only catchers in the organization with MLB experience. Brantly has 456 big league plate appearances across parts of eight seasons. Neither Pinto nor Jackson has recorded even 200 MLB plate appearances.

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