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Yankees Interested In Luis Rengifo, Kyle Finnegan, Lucas Erceg

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11:53am: Jorge Castillo of ESPN reports that the Yanks are more focused on pitching and acquiring Díaz is unlikely, which could perhaps apply to Rengifo as well.

11:49am: The trade deadline is just a few hours away now but teams are still scouring the market for upgrades. Per Jon Heyman of The New York Post on X, the Yankees have infielders Yandy Díaz and Luis Rengifo on their radar, as well as relievers Tanner Scott, Pete Fairbanks, Kyle Finnegan and Lucas Erceg. He adds that they could also look to add a starting pitching but might not meet the asking prices.

Some of those guys have already been connected to the Yankees in rumors. The connections with Rengifo, Finnegan and Erceg are new but also in line with their previously-reported pursuits. Even after adding Jazz Chisholm Jr. to the roster, they have seemingly still been looking for more infield help, which Rengifo could certainly help with.

The 27-year-old is in his third straight above-average offensive season. Since the start of the 2022 campaign, he’s hit .272/.323/.433 for a wRC+ of 110. He’s also stolen 35 bases in that time while bouncing to all three outfield spots and three infield positions to the left of first base. He’s not considered a strong defender at any one position but the ability to move all around is certainly attractive.

The Yanks are still trying to figure out their best alignment at the moment. Chisholm’s first game as a Yankee was in center field, where he has been spending most of his time in recent years. But then the Yanks moved him to third base last night, a position he had never played before. Now that Giancarlo Stanton is back and in the designated hitter slot, Aaron Judge moved to center field, flanked by Juan Soto and Alex Verdugo. Acquiring another infielder could result in Chisholm moving to second and bumping out Gleyber Torres, or perhaps Verdugo will get nudged out of the outfield mix.

Rengifo is making a modest $4.4MM this year, with roughly $1.5MM left to be paid out. That’s likely attractive to the Yankees as they are slated to be a third-time payor of the competitive balance tax and well above the top tier, meaning they will pay a 110% tax on anything they add to the ledger. He can also be retained via arbitration for 2025 and could perhaps slide into next year’s second base job with Torres slated for free agency after the current season. Verdugo is also an impending free agent, so perhaps Chisholm could be in the outfield with Rengifo on the infield. There’s also the looming Soto free agency to consider, though the Yanks are expected to be aggressive in trying to re-sign him. Rengifo has also been connected to clubs such as the Red Sox, Dodgers and Royals in recent weeks.

The extra year of control means that the Angels don’t have to move on from Rengifo but there would be logic in doing so as they haven’t been meaningfully competitive for quite some time. Now that Shohei Ohtani is gone and Mike Trout is having annual trouble staying on the field, the odds of them turning things around between now and the end of 2025 seem long.

Bullpen adds are generally on the radar of all contending teams and the Yanks are surely exploring all options there. Finnegan has been the Nationals’ closer for quite some time but is nearing the end of his window of club control, with one year remaining after this one. The Nats have already traded Hunter Harvey and Lane Thomas, two players that were also controllable through 2025, and Finnegan seems likely to move today as well.

He has a career 3.52 earned run average in 272 appearances. He has struck out 23.9% of batters faced, given out walks at a 9.4% rate and kept the ball on the ground at a 46.8% clip. That includes racking up 28 saves this year with a 3.48 ERA, 24.6% strikeout rate, 7.8% walk rate and 40.5% ground ball rate. He’s making $5.1MM this year.

Erceg can still be retained by the Athletics for five seasons beyond this one, but he’s a late bloomer who is now 29 years old despite his limited experience, which could tempt them to sell high. He has a 3.68 ERA this year, 26.3% strikeout rate, 8.3% walk rate and 50.5% ground ball rate. The fact that he’s pre-arbitration and therefore making a modest salary is surely appealing to the Yankees but the cost might be high. Even rental relievers are netting big returns at this year’s deadline so getting Erceg might take an uncomfortable haul.

Yankees, Pirates, Astros In The Mix For Yandy Diaz

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9:38pm: In addition to the Yankees, both the Pirates and Astros are engaged with the Rays on Diaz, reports Cuban journalist Francys Romero.

Both teams make some sense for Diaz, though the Astros’ fit is clearer and more straightforward. Houston released Jose Abreu earlier this summer and has received a middling .232/.316/.354 output from Jon Singleton in his stead. The ’Stros already depleted the top end of a thin farm to acquire Yusei Kikuchi earlier tonight, however, making it tougher for them to win any kind of bidding war for a player of note.

The Pirates’ need at first base has quieted as they’ve enjoyed a resurgence from Rowdy Tellez since the calendar flipped to June. The lefty slugger touts a .331/.370/.595 line over his past 135 plate appearances. That said, Tellez has notable platoon splits in his career, and Diaz could also log time at both third base and designated hitter — particularly if the Bucs are comfortable playing Andrew McCutchen in the outfield more frequently. (Notably, outfielders Joshua Palacios and Ji Hwan Bae both exited tonight’s game with injuries.) More than anything, Pittsburgh simply needs more offense, so acquiring a quality hitter like Diaz and sorting out the playing time later has its own merits, even if the positional fit is less clean with Tellez’s recent hot streak and a franchise icon (McCutchen) serving as a near-everyday designated hitter.

8:35pm: The Yankees have been active in just about every facet of the trade market over the past week. They’ve landed Jazz Chisholm Jr. from the Marlins, looked into big-name starters like Giants lefty Blake Snell and Tigers righty Jack Flaherty, and simultaneously been gauging interest in lefty Nestor Cortes. Among the team’s other targets is Rays infielder Yandy Diaz, per The Athletic’s Brendan Kuty. The Yankees were also involved in the bidding for Isaac Paredes before he was traded to the Cubs, Kuty adds.

Adding some infield help makes good sense for the Yankees, who have Anthony Rizzo on the injured list while veterans Gleyber Torres and DJ LeMahieu have struggled throughout the season. Utilityman Jon Berti, acquired just prior to Opening Day, is on the injured list. Versatile Oswaldo Cabrera has faded after a hot start. Rookie Ben Rice has shown some power but entered play Monday hitting .196 with a .291 OBP (he’s since homered and bumped up those rate stats a bit). A brief look at veteran J.D. Davis didn’t work out.

Bringing Diaz aboard would give the Yankees an affordable veteran who can handle both infield corners, though he’s primarily played first base in recent seasons. The 32-year-old Diaz got out to a dreadful start in 2024 but turned things around emphatically after a slow first month. His season-long .270/.326/.397 line is more solid than it is eye-catching, but setting aside an uncharacteristic slump to begin the season, Diaz has turned in a robust .296/.348/.452 slash over a sample of just under 300 plate appearances. His superlative bat-to-ball skills have been on full display, as Diaz has fanned in a mere 13.7% of his plate appearances during that stretch and walked at a 7.5% clip. That walk rate is slightly below average, but Diaz has an 11.5% career mark in that regard.

Diaz’s approach is a particularly good fit with Yankee Stadium. Although he’s a right-handed hitter, he hits the ball to the opposite field at a hearty 30.3% rate — more than all but 16 hitters in baseball (min. 300 plate appearances). Diaz is batting .333 and slugging .505 when he goes the other way with the ball — numbers that would presumably tick up when playing half his games with that ever-alluring short right-field porch in the Bronx.

Diaz is in the second season of a three-year, $24MM contract. He’s earning $8MM on the year and is owed $10MM in 2025. There’s a $12MM club option for the 2026 campaign on the contract as well, which does not have a buyout. That backloaded contract is relatively steep for the Rays but far more palatable for the Yankees, even with their luxury-tax status. The Yankees are a third-time offender in the top tier of penalization, meaning they’d pay a 110% tax on the AAV of any contracts they add to the books. That creates some short-term pain, perhaps, but Diaz’s deal is more affordable than many free-agent options would be and the fact that he’s locked up through ’26 makes him an appealing multi-year option.

Dodgers Acquire Amed Rosario

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The Dodgers and Rays continue to be two of the deadline’s more active teams, as Los Angeles reacquired Amed Rosario from Tampa Bay.  Minor league righty Michael Flynn heads to the Rays in return in a one-for-one swap.  To create roster space for Rosario, the Dodgers have designated Ryan Yarbrough for assignment

Rosario has now been a deadline pickup for the Dodgers in consecutive years, after L.A. acquired him from the Guardians in exchange for Noah Syndergaard last July.  Rosario hit .256/.301/.408 over 133 plate appearances for the Dodgers following the trade, primarily playing second base with a few appearances at his old shortstop position, after primarily playing short in his previous six seasons with the Guardians and Mets.

After signing a one-year, $1.5MM deal with the Rays last winter, Rosario moved into more of a full utility role, spending most of his time at second base and left field while still getting substantial playing time at shortstop and third base.  The initial expectation was that the right-handed hitting Rosario would mostly face left-handed pitching, but between injuries and his respectable splits, Rosario ended up facing more right-handers than southpaws while hitting an overall .307/.331/.417 across 275 PA for Tampa Bay.  Rosario has a 115 wRC+, which would be a career high if he can keep it going over the rest of the season.

Rosario could just slot back right back into regular second-base duty in a platoon with Gavin Lux, but a larger role is probably in store for Rosario while the Dodgers try to manage several injuries.  With Mookie Betts, Max Muncy, Miguel Rojas, Chris Taylor, and the newly-acquired Tommy Edman all on the mend, Rosario figures to get a decent dose of playing time all over the infield.

With only around $500K still owed to Rosario in salary for the rest of the season, the trade is a cost-effective move for the Dodgers that might pay big dividends, considering Rosario’s quality numbers and his familiarity with playing in Los Angeles.  The deal also continues Andrew Friedman’s long history of trading with his former team, as the L.A. president of baseball operations has swung several deals since leaving the Rays for the Dodgers back in 2014.

Flynn is just over a week away from his 28th birthday, and he’ll get to celebrate by once more changing organizations during his pro career.  A sixth-round pick for the Pirates in 2018, Flynn also spent time in the Mariners’ farm system before joining the Dodgers this season, and he has a 4.95 ERA over 36 1/3 relief innings for Triple-A Oklahoma City.

As with most Pacific Coast League numbers, a look behind the ERA is necessary in the hitter-friendly league, and Flynn has a 32.1% strikeout rate and 9.6% walk rate.  His strikeout numbers have increased exponentially over his last two seasons, and given the Rays’ penchant for uncovering hidden gems, it stands to reason that Tampa has seen something in Flynn that might put him in line for his Major League debut.

Since the Dodgers’ injury woes also extend to their pitching staff, Yarbrough’s DFA counts as a bit of a surprise, as he has been a fairly effective arm for L.A. since being picked up from the Royals at last year’s trade deadline.  This season Yarbrough has a 3.74 ERA in 67 1/3 innings while working as a long reliever and occasional bulk pitcher, albeit with such unimpressive metrics as an 8.9% walk rate and a 13.9% strikeout rate.  That latter number is one of the lowest K-rates in the sport, though he has also been one of the league’s best at limiting hard contact, albeit with some significant help from a .214 BABIP.

Yarbrough’s 4.96 SIERA apparently carried more weight for the Dodgers than his ERA of over a run lower, so Los Angeles has now sent the veteran to the DFA wire.  The left-hander’s ability to eat innings out of the pen could make him a candidate for a waiver claim, particularly since several teams might have holes to fill in their relief corps if other relievers are traded by the deadline.

Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic first reported the Dodgers were acquiring Rosario. Robert Murray of FanSided reported Flynn was going back to Tampa. Juan Toribio of MLB.com first reported the Yarbrough DFA.

Cubs Acquire Isaac Paredes For Christopher Morel, Two Prospects

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The Cubs and Rays have lined up on an eye-opening trade in advance of the deadline, as Isaac Paredes is on his way to Chicago.  Christopher Morel and right-handers Hunter Bigge and Ty Johnson, comprise the three-player package heading to Tampa Bay in the other end of the deal.

Paredes has been a popular figure in trade rumors in recent days, with such teams as the Dodgers, Astros, Rangers, and Mariners all linked to the All-Star.  Instead, a more surprising suitor has won the bidding, as Paredes will instead go to a Cubs team that sits in last place in the NL Central with a 50-56 record.

Still, it isn’t entirely surprising that the Cubs have made such a bold move, as the team is clearly aiming to contend in 2025 after stumbling to their disappointing result this year.  President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer said earlier this week that the Cubs’ deadline moves would be made with an eye towards competing next season as opposed to making a late run now, though Paredes is certainly a boost to Chicago’s lineup right now.

There are also some long-term ties at play, since Paredes began his pro career as an international signing for the Cubs back in 2015.  He was moved along with Jeimer Candelario to the Tigers at the 2017 deadline in the trade that brought Alex Avila and Justin Wilson to Chicago, and Paredes made his MLB debut in a Detroit uniform in 2020.

Acquired in a trade with the Tigers early in the 2022 season, Paredes emerged as a very productive regular over his three years in Tampa.  He has a 129 wRC+ over his 1377 plate appearances in a Rays uniform, highlighted by a 31-homer season in 2023 and an All-Star appearance this year.  Despite a recent slump, Paredes is still hitting .247/.355/.438 with 16 home runs this season, across 425 PA while getting regular work at both corner infield spots.

Most of that work came at third base, and Paredes figures to take right over from Morel at the hot corner at Wrigley Field.  Paredes’ glovework as a third baseman has been more solid than outstanding, yet even average defense is a big upgrade from Morel, whose struggles in the field have been well documented.  The right-handed hitting Paredes could also spell Michael Busch (a lefty-swinger) at first base when a tough southpaw is on the mound, and Paredes also has a good deal of experience at second base, even though the Rays have used him only in the corner infield spots in 2024.  On paper, however, the Cubs already have their 2025 starting infield set, with Paredes at third base, Busch at first, Nico Hoerner at second base, and Dansby Swanson at shortstop.

Infielders Matt Shaw and James Triantos are two of Chicago’s top prospects, so their arrival in a year or two could further shake up the Cubs’ infield picture and perhaps where Paredes ultimately ends up around the diamond.  In perhaps the key element of today’s trade, the Cubs have plenty of time to figure this all out, as Paredes is under arbitration control through the 2027 season.  Paredes is earning a $3.4MM salary this year, in the first of four arb-eligible seasons via his Super Two status.

Even though Paredes was only just starting his trips through the arb process, that escalating price tag surely factored into the Rays’ decision to part ways with a controllable, productive player who is still just 25 years old.  With payroll always a concern in Tampa, the Rays have never shied away from selling high on a player before his price tag becomes too onerous for the organization, as part of the Rays’ constant churn of replacing pricier players for cheaper options that can provide similar or better production.

This strategy has been on full display since the start of July, as Tampa Bay has now moved Paredes, Randy Arozarena, Jason Adam, Zach Eflin, Aaron Civale, and Phil Maton in the last four weeks.  This blitz of trades figures to continue right up until the July 30th deadline, and such names as Yandy Diaz and Pete Fairbanks have also been mentioned as potential trade candidates.  All of these moves have come despite the fact that the Rays are still playing solid baseball, as their 54-52 record has them only 3.5 games out of the final AL wild card berth.

Star prospect Junior Caminero has been expected to receive a longer look in the big leagues at this point this season, and very well could have been called up already if his minor league season hadn’t been interrupted by injuries.  With Paredes traded, Caminero now has a clear path to regular playing time at third base, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see Caminero in Tampa Bay later this week once the dust has fully settled from the team’s deadline moves.

Morel is only in his third Major League season, but he has thus far played at every position except first base and catcher as the Cubs have tried to find a suitable way to get Morel’s bat into the lineup.  Second base could be a more viable option for Morel now that he is no longer blocked by Hoerner, or the Rays could cycle him into their first base/DH mix as well.

Perhaps the first order of business is getting Morel’s bat on track, as he has hit only .199/.302/.374 with 18 homers in 420 PA this season.  Between this 93 wRC+ and his tough defensive number, Morel has been a sub-replacement level player in 2024, with a -0.1 fWAR.  It is an unfortunate setback for the 25-year-old, who hit a much more respectable .241/.311/.471 with 42 homers in his first 854 MLB plate appearances.

There is probably always going to be a lot of swing-and-miss in Morel’s game, but even being a “three true outcomes” type of player has plenty of utility if Morel can keep drawing walks and putting the ball over the fence.  The Rays are also surely thinking that a change of scenery could benefit Morel, or perhaps that the team’s own staff can help him unlock some greater potential (as has been done with Paredes and a number of other hitters who can come through Tampa’s organization).

Bigge was a 12th-round pick out of Harvard in the 2019 draft, and he made his MLB debut just this month, amassing a 2.70 ERA in his first 3 1/3 innings (over four appearances) in the Show.  Bigge has worked only as a reliever in his pro career, and delivered a 4.25 ERA across 159 innings in the minors, with a big 30.42% strikeout rate but also a 15.06% walk rate.

The control is the biggest obstacle preventing Bigge from fully realizing his potential, as MLB Pipeline rates his cutter, slider, and his upper-90s fastball all as plus pitches, and his curveball also has promise.  However, Pipeline puts Bigge only 29th in their ranking of Chicago’s prospects, with those control problems in mind.  Bigge has so much tantalizing stuff that it is easy to see why the Rays had interest, and given Tampa Bay’s history of pitching development, nobody would be surprised if Bigge becomes a dangerous bullpen weapon with his new team.

Johnson was a 15th-round pick for the Cubs in the 2023 draft, and the Ball State product has a 3.54 ERA in 61 total innings in 2024 (33 2/3 frames in A ball, and 27 1/3 innings at high-A).  Starting 10 of his 18 games, Johnson has also shown some nice ability to miss bats, with a 32.5% strikeout rate in his brief pro career.

Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (X link) was the first to report that Paredes was heading to Chicago.  MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reported that the Rays were receiving Morel as part of a three-player package, and The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma reported Bigge and Johnson as the other two players.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Padres To Acquire Jason Adam From Rays

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The Padres acquired right-hander Jason Adam from the Rays in exchange for three prospects, per announcements from both clubs. The Padres are sending righty Dylan Lesko, outfielder Homer Bush Jr. and catcher J.D. Gonzalez to Tampa. The Friars designated right-hander Glenn Otto for assignment to open a roster spot while the Rays reinstated Jeffrey Springs from the 60-day injured list to take Adam’s spot.

Like so many other players before him, Adam bounced around the league before finally becoming his best self in Tampa. He was drafted by the Royals back in 2010 and subsequently spent time in several organizations, including the Padres, as well as the Twins, Blue Jays and Cubs. He was non-tendered by the Cubs after 2021, at that point sitting on a 4.71 earned run average through 78 1/3 major league innings. He had struck out 27.9% of batters faced but also given out walks at a high rate of 11.4%.

The Rays signed him going into 2022 and he has taken his game to another level since then. He made 170 appearances as a Ray with a 2.30 ERA, 30.4% strikeout rate, 8.3% walk rate and 44.7% ground ball rate. He has 24 saves and 51 holds in that time. That includes 47 appearances this year with a 2.49 ERA. His 27.8% strikeout rate in 2024 is a few ticks below recent years but his 47.3% ground ball rate is a personal best.

All contending clubs are looking to bolster their bullpens at this time of year and that’s especially true of the Padres. Their relief corps has a combined ERA of 4.19, which places them in the bottom third of the league. They’ve received good results from Robert Suarez, Jeremiah Estrada, Yuki Matsui and others but guys like Wandy Peralta and Enyel De Los Santos have struggled, with Peralta currently on the injured list.

Adding Adam and his skills to that relief group is understandably appealing, as is his modest salary. Though he turns 33 years old next month, his long journey to being established at the major league level has led to him having a delayed path to notable earnings. He qualified for arbitration for the first time going into 2023 as a Super Two player and made $1.775MM last year, getting a modest bump to $2.7MM here in 2024. He is eligible for two more arbitration seasons before he’s slated for free agency after 2026.

The Padres had to make significant salary cuts in the offseason, which led to Juan Soto getting trading to the Yankees. They have still attempted to field a competitive team here in 2024 and have succeeded. They are currently on a seven-game winning streak that has bumped them to 57-50 and possession of a National League Wild Card spot. But they seemingly want to avoid the competitive balance tax this year and are currently on pace to do so.

RosterResource calculates their CBT number at $225MM, roughly $12MM away from the $237MM base threshold. That appears to give them a decent amount of wiggle room but that’s an unofficial estimate. Adam has less than a $1MM left to be paid out this year, so he will only marginally increase San Diego’s CBT number, perhaps leaving the front office room for further moves.

The Rays aren’t buried in the standings but have decided to do some selling this year anyway, seemingly due to a combination of strong depth as well as a seller’s market. Their record is currently 53-52, just four games out of a playoff spot, yet they have already traded multiple established big leaguers for younger talent. They have sent Zach Eflin to the Orioles, Aaron Civale to the Brewers, Randy Arozarena to the Mariners and now Adam to the Padres.

They still have a chance to compete down the stretch but have not been shy about making these kinds of moves, seemingly content to add some young talent and save some money while trying to backfill the lost talent from within their own system. With Springs, Shane Baz and Drew Rasmussen nearing returns from elbow surgeries, they had readymade rotation replacements. Baz came up to take Civale’s spot and Springs is about to do the same for Eflin. Arozerena’s playing time can be given to guys like Richie Palacios or Jonny DeLuca, while the club always has intriguing bullpen arms on hand and can likely put together a solid relief corps even without Adam.

Lesko, 20, is viewed as the most intriguing part of their return in this deal. The Padres selected him 15th overall in 2022 and he has received plenty of love from prospect evaluators since then. His time in the minors has seen him miss plenty of bats but also the strike zone. He has thrown 69 2/3 innings over 16 starts at the High-A level this year with a 6.46 ERA. He has struck out 25% of batters faced but walked 16.5% of them.

Despite the control issues, he is still considered one of the better prospects in the league. FanGraphs currently lists him #88 overall and MLB Pipeline #76. Baseball America had him #38 overall coming into the year but he’s no longer on the top 100 and was recently bumped to #5 in the Padres’ system. Perhaps the Padres are moving on from a prospect that they have soured on or they have simply accepted this as the price of getting a quality reliever who is affordable and controllable. Either way, Tampa has a strong reputation of getting the best out of players and could perhaps get Lesko back on track in the years to come.

Bush is naturally the son of former big leaguer Homer Bush. The younger Bush was a fourth-round pick of the Padres last year. He is a speed-and-defense specialist with a contact-based approach at the plate. In 130 minor league games, he has seven home runs, a 9.5% walk rate and 15.7% strikeout rate, leading to a line of .290/.383/.379. He also has 65 steals in 76 tries. BA currently ranks him 12th in the Padres’ system.

Gonzalez was a third-round pick last year and BA currently ranks him #8 in the system. He is only hitting .205/.322/.230 in Single-A this year but is projected to potentially be a two-way player from behind the plate someday.

Otto was claimed off waivers in September. He began the year on the injured list with a right teres major strain. He began a rehab assignment in early June and was optioned later that month. He has tossed 15 1/3 innings in the minors this year with a 7.63 ERA. The Friars will have a few days to consider trades or put him on waivers.

The Padres have made a notable upgrade to their bullpen for the stretch run but surely aren’t done. Bob Nightengale of USA reports on X that they are now going to turn their attentions to the rotation. The Rays have already made a number of future-focused moves but could perhaps consider more, with players like Pete Fairbanks, Brandon Lowe and Yandy Díaz candidates to go in the coming days.

Robert Murray of FanSided first reported that Adam was heading to the Padres on X. Kiley McDaniel of ESPN reported Lesko’s inclusion on X. Jeff Passan of ESPN reported on X that Bush and a third prospect were also going to Tampa. Joel Sherman of The New York Post first relayed Gonzalez on X.

Dodgers Trade Rumors: Flaherty, Finnegan, Paredes, Hoerner, Rengifo

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The Dodgers are expected to be very active prior to the July 30 trade deadline, as while Los Angeles still has the fourth-best winning percentage (.585) in baseball, the team is just 10-12 in its last 22 games.  Injuries all over the roster have left L.A. with plenty of holes to fill, and the Dodgers are therefore casting a wide berth in exploring possible deadline pickups.

With starting pitching a particular need, Tigers right-hander Jack Flaherty is a Dodgers target, according to Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press.  Nationals reliever Kyle Finnegan, Rays third baseman Isaac Paredes, Cubs second baseman Nico Hoerner, and Angels infielder Luis Rengifo have also received consideration, as per USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, since the Dodgers are trying to shore up both their bullpen and the infield.

Since Flaherty is a free agent after the season, he is one of the more obvious rental candidates available considering that the Tigers (despite some good recent play) are still only 52-54 and more on the outskirts of the AL wild card race.  As noted by both Petzold and Nightengale, Detroit’s asking price for Flaherty is both high and somewhat straight-forward — teams will have to offer the Tigers something they deem more valuable than the compensatory draft pick the Tigers would receive this winter if Flaherty rejects the team’s inevitable qualifying offer and signs elsewhere.

The Dodgers’ rotation needs have somewhat lessened now that Tyler Glasnow is back from the injured list and Clayton Kershaw has made his season debut, but L.A. still has a whopping nine pitchers on the IL.  Walker Buehler is on a Triple-A rehab assignment, though Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s timetable is still unclear, and Yamamoto will be out until late August at the earliest as he recovers from a triceps injury.  Los Angeles did feel comfortable enough in its pitching depth to deal James Paxton to the Red Sox, but Flaherty is more of a front-of-the-rotation type that could conceivably start a playoff game.

Likewise, Finnegan could slot right into what has become something of a fluid late-game mix.  Evan Phillips is still ostensibly the Dodgers’ top choice as closer, though his recent struggles have brought Daniel Hudson and Blake Treinen into the picture as save candidates.  Manager Dave Roberts recently stated that Phillips could be deployed in any high-leverage situation late in games rather than specifically just the ninth inning, which opens the door for L.A. to solidify things by landing another experienced closer like Finnegan.

Since Finnegan is arbitration-controlled through 2025, he’d also be able to help Los Angeles next season in addition to this year’s playoff run.  This extra year of control means that the Nationals would get an even nicer return by moving him at the deadline, though D.C. might consider waiting until the offseason to gauge offers if nobody steps up with an acceptable enough trade package by Tuesday.  The Nats already got a good score in moving Hunter Harvey to the Royals earlier this month, and between the Harvey deal and yesterday’s trade of Jesse Winker to the Mets, Washington is clearly in sell mode.

The infield targets all come with varying degrees of control beyond just the 2024 season.  Rengifo is arb-controlled through 2025, Paredes is arb-controlled through 2027 as a Super Two player, and Hoerner is signed through 2026 via the three-year, $35MM deal he inked prior to the 2023 season.  That extension started this year, so Hoerner is owed roughly $3.9MM in salary for the rest of 2024, as well as $11.5MM in 2025 and $12MM in 2026.

Sticking with Hoerner, that is a decent-sized price tag for a Dodgers team already far over the highest tier of luxury tax penalization.  In terms of both the actual salary and the added tax hit, Hoerner’s dollar value would come at more than double the size of his contract, as the Dodgers have an additional repeater penalty for exceeding the Competitive Balance Tax in each of the previous three seasons.  This cost could be reduced if Los Angeles sent another contract to Chicago in return, or the Cubs could absorb more of Hoerner’s deal if the Dodgers improved the value of the trade package.

The latter scenario could involve better prospects, or perhaps more win-now types of players for a Cubs team that is still aiming to contend in 2025, even if 2024 is looking like a wash.  Moving a reliable everyday player like Hoerner would be a bold move for the Cubs, yet for a team that has a good amount of middle infield depth, trading Hoerner could allow Chicago to upgrade in other areas.

A defensive standout at either middle infield position, Hoerner could give the Dodgers an answer to their shortstop woes, as both Mookie Betts and Miguel Rojas are injured.  Installing Hoerner at short would allow Betts to play second base (or even move back to the outfield) when he is healthy, and Rojas and Gavin Lux would then assume depth roles.  With Hoerner locked up through 2026, the Dodgers could then explore returning Betts back to right field altogether, or perhaps at least limit him to second base when he does get infield work.

Rengifo is a utility player who can play all over the diamond, though he doesn’t offer strong glovework at any position.  The switch-hitter does bring more offense than Hoerner, and Rengifo has returned in seemingly good health after a three-week absence due to wrist inflammation.  Perhaps the biggest obstacle to a Rengifo trade for the Dodgers would be the fact that the two L.A. teams are infrequent trade partners.  Ironically, Rengifo was part of an infamously scuttled trade between the Angels and Dodgers in February 2020, which reportedly left Halos owner Arte Moreno upset at the idea of ever again doing business with his local rivals.

Conversely, the Rays and Dodgers have lined up on several trades over the years, including the blockbuster deal that sent Glasnow to Los Angeles just this past offseason.  This could help the Dodgers in working out a Paredes trade, who would likely play third base with Max Muncy’s recovery from an oblique strain still up in the air.  Since Muncy is signed through at least 2025 and Paredes would be a longer-term addition, one of the two could likely be moved to second base in 2025, which also helps the Dodgers’ middle infield picture to some extent.  The Rangers, Astros, and Mariners are among the other teams who have been linked to Paredes in recent rumors, though intriguingly, Nightengale writes that the Yankees and Dodgers are in a “bidding war” over the All-Star infielder.

Phillies Notes: Hays, Marsh, Green, Arozarena

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The Phillies and Orioles completed an intriguing trade Friday that saw Baltimore land Seranthony Dominguez and Cristian Pache in exchange for Austin Hays, which represented something of a lengthy pursuit for Phils president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski.  The executive told reporters (including The Athletic’s Matt Gelb and The Philadelphia Inquirer’s Scott Lauber) that “I’ve actually tried to acquire him the last two trading deadlines, and [the Orioles] were asking for much more than we wanted to give.”

The O’s finally budged, perhaps due to both Dominguez addressing Baltimore’s bullpen needs, and Hays’ increasingly expendable nature within a crowded Orioles outfield.  An ice-cold start to the season and then a four-week IL stint due to a calf strain led to Hays’ playing time being reduced, though he has hit quite well in a more limited capacity over the last two-plus months.  Even with the first six weeks of the season essentially being a wash, Hays has gotten his offensive production back above league average, delivering a 102 wRC+ from a .255/.316/.395 slash line over 175 plate appearances.

It isn’t too far removed from the 108 wRC+ Hays posted over 1677 PA with Baltimore from 2021-23, and his recent hot streak indicates that Hays could certainly still match or surpass that number over the rest of the 2024 campaign.  Hays’ numbers against right-handed pitching are far below his career norms, so if those stats in particular pick up, Hays will certainly put himself in line for more of a regular role in the Phillies’ lineup.

“We don’t think he’s just in a position where he has to be platooned by any means,” Dombrowski said about Hays, who for now seemingly will join with the left-handed hitting Brandon Marsh as part of a timeshare in left field.  Marsh could also be moved to center field to split time with the righty-swinging Johan Rojas should Hays force his way into everyday duty in left field.  As Lauber notes, Marsh’s own splits have cut into his playing time — Marsh has been crushing righties but struggling badly against lefties this season, thus necessitating the Phillies’ need for a right-handed bat for the outfield picture.

Addressing that need cost the Phils an experienced reliever in Dominguez, which was no small matter for a Philadelphia team that was already known to be looking for bullpen help prior to the trade.  “We just felt that for us to get a right-handed hitter we had to give up something,” Dombrowski said, and the club will now target “somebody who can pitch innings late in a game that are important innings for us, like our other guys do.”

Carlos Estevez, Tanner Scott, Kyle Finnegan, and Michael Kopech are some of the more prominent relievers linked to Philadelphia’s trade pursuits in recent weeks, and Blue Jays right-hander Chad Green is also “one of the Phillies’ top targets,” in the words of MLB Network’s Jon Morosi (X link).  Green is generally considered to be available given how the struggling Jays will be selling to some extent at the deadline, though Toronto is reportedly focusing on selling pending free agents, whereas Green is under contract through the 2025 season.

As per the unusual multi-option terms of the deal Green signed in January 2023, he ended up earning $21MM over the 2024-25 seasons, once the Blue Jays exercised the two-year version of their club option last fall.  This translates to $10.5MM in 2025 and roughly $3.5MM left in salary this season.  This is no small matter to a Phillies team that is on pace to exceed the luxury tax threshold for the third straight season, and would ideally like to avoid the third penalty tier of $277MM.  RosterResource has the Phils at roughly a $262.3MM tax number right now, and crossing the $277MM line would give the Phillies a 95% tax on any overages, plus their first pick in the 2025 draft would be dropped back by 10 spots.

The Jays could potentially eat more of Green’s salary if the Phillies were to offer a better prospect return, so there are ways for the Phils to work around the payroll issue (while leaving room for other deadline upgrades) if they decide Green is their guy on the trade market.  The veteran righty has a 1.74 ERA over 31 innings for Toronto this season, though his 3.82 SIERA is perhaps a more accurate reflection of Green’s performance.  Green has benefited greatly from a 100% strand rate and a .187 BABIP, and his 23.1% strikeout rate is a little below average, while his 7.7% walk rate is pretty respectable.

In other trade roads not taken, Lauber and Gelb both wrote that the Phillies talked with the Rays about Randy Arozarena before the outfielder was dealt to the Mariners on Thursday.  Gelb noted that Tampa Bay wanted “a top prospect” in exchange for Arozarena, but the Phils weren’t willing to part with the unknown player.

Landing Arozarena would’ve certainly counted as more of a blockbuster move to address Philadelphia’s need for a right-handed hitting outfielder.  While Dombrowski has made a habit of trading prospects for established stars during his storied front office career, it could be that the PBO didn’t want to move whatever particular minor leaguer the Rays wanted, or Dombrowski was wary in general about depleting from the Phillies’ somewhat limited farm system.

Rangers Interested In Isaac Paredes

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With Randy Arozarena and Zach Eflin traded in the last two days, the Rays have already gotten a jump on retooling and cutting payroll even as the team still has a respective .500 (52-52) record.  Isaac Paredes is another name who has gotten a lot of attention in the trade market, and ESPN’s Buster Olney (via X) reports that the Rangers have talked to the Rays about Paredes, in addition to their previously reported interest in Yandy Diaz.

Both the Astros and Mariners have also been linked to Paredes’ market, so the All-Star infielder is generating a lot of interest within the AL West alone now that the Rangers have also joined the mix.  It isn’t surprising that clubs around baseball are checking in on a player with Paredes’ combination of age (25), affordability, team control, and obvious ability on the diamond.

Paredes has blossomed over his three seasons in Tampa, including his 16 homers and .249/.356/.441 slash line over 421 plate appearances this season.  The translates to a 132 wRC+, only a touch below Paredes’ 137 mark over 571 PA in 2023.  Beyond the offense, Paredes has primarily played third base with generally around average fielding grades depending on your metric of choice, but he has also gotten a good chunk of time at first base and (prior to this season) time at second base.

It is safe to say Paredes would primarily stick to the hot corner if he landed with the Rangers, as regular third baseman Josh Jung has missed almost the entire season due to wrist surgery, and then a subsequent shutdown from a minor league rehab assignment due to continued soreness.  Jung restarted a new rehab stint just yesterday (going 1-for-3 with Double-A Frisco) but is still likely a week or two away from rejoining the lineup, given how he’ll need some space to get his timing back after such a long layoff.

Josh Smith’s excellent play at third base has helped Texas manage Jung’s absence to some extent, and the left-handed hitting Smith pairs nicely with the right-handed hitting Paredes.  That same platoon factor could give Paredes some time at first base when a left-handed starter is on the mound, thus giving the Rangers opportunity to sit Nathaniel Lowe.  Even if Jung did return relatively soon in August, that still doesn’t create any real playing time crunch, since the Rangers could rotate any of these players into the DH spot to everyone playing on more or less an everyday basis.

Paredes is a Super Two player, and is earning $3.4MM this season in the first of four arbitration-eligible seasons.  Adding Paredes would therefore bring another long-term option into a Rangers lineup that already has a lot of pieces locked into place.  Corey Seager and Marcus Semien are signed to mega-deals, while Lowe, Adolis Garcia, and Jonah Heim are arb-controlled through 2026.  Leody Taveras is arb-controlled through 2027, Jung and Smith through 2028, and star prospects Evan Carter and Wyatt Langford are both still rookies.  Justin Foscue is another notable prospect in his rookie season, and shortstop prospect Sebastian Walcott is at least a couple of years away from his MLB debut but still falls within this broader timeframe.

If the Rangers feel this creates any kind of a longjam or if they feel Jung is making good progress, they could pursue a rental player type of infielder instead of Paredes.  Such a move would also naturally come at a much lower prospect cost, as Tampa Bay is surely demanding a ton in any Paredes trade.  Given his years of control and the fact that the Rays are planning to contend again in 2025, Tampa isn’t facing any pressure to trade Paredes immediately, as even a healthy arb raise this winter should still fit him comfortably within the Rays’ limited payroll parameters.

Orioles Acquire Zach Eflin From Rays

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The Orioles have acquired right-hander Zach Eflin and cash considerations from the Rays in exchange for three prospects, per announcements from both clubs. Going to the Rays are outfielder Matthew Etzel, right-hander Jackson Baumeister and utility player Mac Horvath. Right-hander Vinny Nittoli has been designated for assignment by the O’s to get Eflin onto their roster.

Eflin, 30, has been a solid big league starter for many years, including his time with the Phillies and with the Rays as well. Since the start of 2018, he has allowed 4.01 earned runs per nine frames in over 800 innings. His 22.2% strikeout rate and 44.8% ground ball rate in that time were both close to league averages and he also limited walks to a tiny rate of 4.9%. Here in 2024, he has a 4.09 ERA in 19 starts. His strikeout rate is down to 18.9% but he’s also lowered his walk rate to 2.8%.

About a month ago, it was reported that the Rays could be looking to make some starting pitchers available, even if they weren’t sellers in the classically understood definition. They had a rotation consisting of Eflin, Aaron Civale, Taj Bradley, Zack Littell and Ryan Pepiot, with Tyler Alexander on hand as a depth option. On top of that group, they had Shane Baz, Jeffrey Springs and Drew Rasmussen each getting back to health after significant elbow surgeries.

As the overall group became healthier, the Rays were seemingly open to subtracting, as doing so could allow them to address other parts of their roster, save some money, bolster their farm system or some combination of those goals, and still keep a fairly healthy rotation for the stretch run. The most logical candidates for such a trade were Civale, Littell and Eflin as the three of them were slated for free agency after 2025. Civale was flipped to the Brewers a few weeks ago and replaced in the rotation by Baz, with Eflin now moving on as well.

The Baltimore rotation has been in the opposite position, as it’s been getting less healthy as the season has gone along. Each of Kyle Bradish, John Means and Tyler Wells required UCL surgery earlier this year, putting them out of action for the remainder of the campaign.

They still had a strong front two in the rotation with Corbin Burnes and Grayson Rodriguez, but there’s been far less certainty behind them. Prospects Cade Povich and Chayce McDermott were each given brief auditions but weren’t impressive. Dean Kremer has a serviceable 4.43 ERA but might be lucky to have that, considering his .227 batting average on balls in play. Albert Suárez has a 3.48 ERA but is a 34-year-old journeyman who is back in the majors for the first time since 2017. Cole Irvin has been moved between the rotation and bullpen due to inconsistent results. Bolstering that group is plenty sensible and it now looks much stronger with Eflin in it. Burnes is set to reach free agency after this season, so acquiring Eflin is also a notable move for Baltimore’s 2025 rotation.

In addition to the situation in Tampa’s rotation, an Eflin deal has seemed likely due to his contract. He signed a three-year pact with the Rays going into 2023, with the $40MM guarantee being backloaded. He was paid $11MM last year and is making that same amount here in 2024, with an $18MM salary for 2025. The Rays often trade their players before they reach free agency and slinking away from that large commitment in the final season of the deal always seemed possible.

The Rays are covering Eflin’s $1MM trade bonus but the O’s are otherwise absorbing the deal, per Jon Heyman of The New York Post and Matt Weyrich of the Baltimore Sun, both on X. That’s perhaps a notable development as the Orioles haven’t spent much money since their last competitive window closed. Per the data at Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the O’s had nine-figure Opening Day payrolls from 2014 to 2018 but haven’t been back to that level since then.

Some of the light spending has been due to the club rebuilding in recent years but their return to contention hasn’t led to a loosening of the pursestrings. The O’s haven’t given a multi-year deal to a free agent since Alex Cobb in early 2018 and the largest guarantee of any kind given out since then is the $13MM given to Craig Kimbrel on his one-year deal.

David Rubenstein purchased the franchise from the Angelos family earlier this year and it has been hoped that the ownership change would also lead to a change in spending habits. Perhaps the fact that the O’s are taking on an $18MM salary for next year is a sign that Baltimore will be operating differently from now on.

Turning to Tampa’s end of the deal, they are presumably saving at least a little bit of money while also adding three fresh prospects to their system. Baseball America just updated their list of the top 30 Orioles’ farmhands, with Horvath in the #13 slot and Baumeister at #18, through Etzel doesn’t crack the list.

Horwath, 23, was selected in the second round of last year’s draft. He’s hitting .232/.328/.417 in High-A this year for a 110 wRC+. He’s also stolen 26 bases while playing second base, third base and the outfield.

Baumeister, 22, was taken with a competitive balance pick last year, 63rd overall. He has made 18 starts at the High-A level this year with a 3.06 ERA and 29.5% strikeout rate, though a 14% walk rate. Etzel was a tenth-round pick last year and has slashed .289/.363/.445 for a 126 wRC+ between High-A and Double-A this year.

The O’s are 61-41 and tied for the best record in the American League but were heading into the stretch run with a flimsy rotation. They’ve strengthened it with a solid veteran, both for this year and next. They have subtracted from their farm system but it’s considered one of the best in the league and they held onto their top guys. Though the rotation is better than it was before this trade, it wouldn’t be a shock to see them add another arm. It’s also been reported that they could trade someone like Ryan Mountcastle or Cedric Mullins, though perhaps today’s trade of Austin Hays to the Phillies makes that less likely.

The Rays have added to their pool of young talent while shedding some payroll commitments, but still go into the final months of this season with a fairly solid rotation. Perhaps they are still hoping to compete but it also seems a more significant sell-off is in the cards. They traded outfielder Randy Arozarena to the Mariners yesterday and it’s possible that guys like Yandy Diaz, Isaac Paredes, Jason Adam, Pete Fairbanks and others could be available in the coming days.

Prior to this trade, Eflin was also connected to clubs like the Astros, Atlanta and the Cardinals. Those clubs will now have to look elsewhere for rotation upgrades in the coming days. Pitchers like Jack Flaherty, Yusei Kikuchi, Erick Fedde, Garrett Crochet, Tarik Skubal and others have been in rumors with varying degrees of availability.

Nittoli was just added to Baltimore’s roster less than two weeks ago and they will now have to either trade him or put him on waivers in the coming days. He has a 1.50 ERA in 12 big league innings this year between the O’s and the A’s.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first reported on X that the O’s would be getting Eflin. Jeff Passan of ESPN reported the prospects going back to the Rays on X. Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com relayed Nittoli’s DFA on X.

Rays Agree To Terms With First-Round Pick Theo Gillen

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The Rays agreed with first-round pick Theo Gillen on a $4.3729MM bonus, reports Jim Callis of MLB Pipeline (X link). That’s full slot value associated with the 18th overall selection.

A 6’3″ infielder from a Texas high school, Gillen ranked as a middle of the first round talent by most pre-draft evaluations. FanGraphs slotted him as a top 10 player in the class and graded him as the top prep player on the board. FanGraphs lauds Gillen’s hit/power combination and gives him a chance to stick at second base or in center field. While evaluators broadly praise the left-handed hitter’s overall ability, some teams were alarmed by a right shoulder injury that necessitated labrum surgery in 2022.

Gillen ranked 19th on Kiley McDaniel’s board at ESPN, 23rd at Baseball America and 21st on Keith Law’s list at The Athletic. He’d been committed to Texas but instead joins a Rays’ system that should also continue to add talent via trade over the next few days.

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