21 Teams Facing Tomorrow’s Arbitration Deadline
21 of baseball's 30 teams must make at least one decision prior to tomorrow's deadline for offering arbitration to free agents. The Rays lead with nine eligible Type A or B free agents, six of which are relievers. We'll have predictions and polls later today, but here's a team-by-team look.
- Rays: Grant Balfour (A), Carl Crawford (A), Rafael Soriano (A), Dan Wheeler (A), Joaquin Benoit (B), Randy Choate (B), Brad Hawpe (B), Carlos Pena (B), Chad Qualls (B). Benoit has already signed with the Tigers, so he's a lock for an offer. I think Hawpe, Pena, and Qualls are the three who will not get offers, though I'm on the fence on Wheeler.
- Twins: Matt Guerrier (A), Carl Pavano (A), Jesse Crain (B), Brian Fuentes (B), Orlando Hudson (B), Jon Rauch (B). I think Fuentes is the only one of the six not to get an offer, but it is possible the Twins don't want to risk having some of the other players under contract for 2011.
- Yankees: Derek Jeter (A), Andy Pettitte (A), Mariano Rivera (A), Lance Berkman (B), Javier Vazquez (B), Kerry Wood (B). Jeter is the interesting case here. In Joel Sherman's November 10th article, he wrote that of a dozen executives polled there was a split but the majority thought Jeter would be offered arbitration.
- Blue Jays: Scott Downs (A), Jason Frasor (A), John Buck (B), Kevin Gregg (B), Miguel Olivo (B). I can see all five getting offers, though Frasor may not if the Jays consider him accepting to be a negative outcome. Between offers made last year and the trade for Olivo, Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos has been aggressive in courting draft picks.
- Padres: Miguel Tejada (A), Kevin Correia (B), David Eckstein (B), Jon Garland (B), Yorvit Torrealba (B). We don't have a history to look at with Jed Hoyer, but I can see Garland and Torrealba getting offers.
- Rangers: Frank Francisco (A), Vladimir Guerrero (A), Cliff Lee (A), Bengie Molina (A). I'm leaning toward only Lee getting an offer, though a case can be made for Francisco.
- Red Sox: Adrian Beltre (A), Victor Martinez (A), Felipe Lopez (B), Jason Varitek (B). It'd be risky to offer arbitration to Varitek, while Beltre and Martinez are locks for offers. Lopez was seemingly acquired entirely for a chance at a supplemental pick, though some doubt he'd turn down an arbitration offer and sign a big league deal elsewhere.
- White Sox: Paul Konerko (A), A.J. Pierzynski (A), Manny Ramirez (A), J.J. Putz (B). Putz is a good bet for an offer; Manny has no chance. Konerko and Pierzynski are borderline cases – the Sox would probably like both players back, but perhaps not at the salaries they could earn by accepting arbitration. Kenny Williams did offer arbitration to a highly paid free agent he did not want after the '08 season with Orlando Cabrera, and after turning down the offer Cabrera didn't sign until March due to the draft pick cost.
- Tigers: Magglio Ordonez (A), Johnny Damon (B), Gerald Laird (B). These three Scott Boras clients are unlikely to receive offers.
- Diamondbacks: Aaron Heilman (B), Adam LaRoche (B). Heilman at $3MM or so wouldn't be the end of the world, but Kevin Towers has many needs to fill and might have other plans for his bullpen. I can also see LaRoche going either way.
- Dodgers: Rod Barajas (B), Scott Podsednik (B). Ned Colletti has not offered arbitration to his free agents in recent years, but the team seems happy with both players and they're operating off small salaries.
- Giants: Aubrey Huff (B), Juan Uribe (B). The Giants will attempt to retain both players, and there's no reason not to offer arbitration.
- Phillies: Jayson Werth (A), Chad Durbin (B). Werth's a lock and Durbin seems likely. The Phillies want to retain Durbin, but the only thing that gives me pause is that they did not offer arbitration to Jamie Moyer after the '08 season.
- Reds: Arthur Rhodes (A), Orlando Cabrera (B). Rhodes should get an offer but the Reds may prefer not to be tied to Cabrera at this point.
- Rockies: Jorge de la Rosa (A), Octavio Dotel (B). De La Rosa will get an offer, but Dotel probably will not.
- Angels: Hideki Matsui (B). I don't expect an offer.
- Braves: Derrek Lee (A). I don't expect an offer.
- Brewers: Trevor Hoffman (B). No chance of an offer.
- Mets: Pedro Feliciano (B). An offer makes sense for the lefty.
- Nationals: Adam Dunn (A). He seems a lock for an offer, though Josh Byrnes and the Diamondbacks chose not to make one to him after the '08 season.
- Orioles: Kevin Millwood (B), Koji Uehara (B). Millwood won't get an offer. Uehara is eligible to be offered arbitration, Jeff Zrebiec of the Baltimore Sun tells me. However, I don't think the Orioles will choose to do so.
Odds & Ends: Mets, Collins, Minaya, Pirates, Rays
Some links on a Sunday evening:
- SI.com's Jon Heyman tweets that Chip Hale will be on Terry Collins' coaching staff after losing out on the Mets' managerial job. Meanwhile, Andy Martino of The New York Daily News tweets that both Mookie Wilson and Dave Wallace will "definitely be considered" for the coaching staff as well.
- ESPN's Adam Rubin offers up ten tidbits about new Mets' manager Terry Collins.
- Omar Minaya is in no hurry to accept one of the many offers he's received, writes ESPN's Enrique Rojas. The former Mets GM says he's received offers for various positions from several teams, including some to be an assistant general manager.
- Dejan Kovacevic of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette tells us that the Pirates are set to hire four coaches for Clint Hurdle's new staff: Ray Searage as the pitching coach, Gregg Ritche as the hitting coach, Jeff Bannister as the third base coach, and Nick Leyva as the bench coach.
- Marc Topkin of the St. Petersburg Times feels that the Rays will hang onto B.J. Upton this offseason and likely won't trade a pitcher (candidates include James Shields, Matt Garza, Jeff Niemann, or Wade Davis) until July, unless the offers get "crazy good" once Cliff Lee signs. He does believe, though, that Jason Bartlett will be traded by Spring Training.
- Bartlett's availability will likely have a negative impact on the market for Marco Scutaro, writes Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal.
- Bob Brookover of the Philadelphia Inquirer looks at Ruben Amaro's five best and five worst moves, and says the jury is still out on the Philly GM.
Minor Deals: Sborz, Huber, Royals, Ruiz
We'll keep track of all of the day's minor deals right here:
- Righty reliever Jay Sborz, 26 in January, signed a minor league deal with the Braves with a Spring Training invite, MLBTR has learned. Sborz was outrighted by the Tigers on November 4th after posting a 4.74 ERA, 8.7 K/9, 4.9 BB/9, and 1.6 HR/9 with 19 saves in 43 2/3 Triple-A innings this year.
- The Twins signed Justin Huber to a minor league contract with an invite to spring training, tweets Joe Christensen of the Minneapolis Star Tribune. Huber last played in the majors with Minnesota in 2009, and has a .580 OPS in 175 career plate appearances.
- The Royals announced that four players have been designated for assignment: Jordan Parraz, Victor Marte, Gaby Hernandez and former #1 overall pick Bryan Bullington.
- The Rays released first baseman Jose Ruiz, according to Marc Topkin of the St. Petersburg Times (on Twitter).
- The Tigers announced that they signed Al Alburquerque to a major league deal for 2011. GM Dave Dombrowski says the team has been impressed with the right-hander's winter ball performance and expects him to compete for a bullpen job in Spring Training. The 24-year-old has struck out 191 batters in 174 1/3 minor league innings in the Cubs and Rockies organizations.
- The Yankees have released Jonathan Albaladejo, who signed with a Japanese team, according to Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News (on Twitter).
- The Diamondbacks claimed right-hander Juan Jaime from the Nationals, according to MLB.com's Bill Ladson (on Twitter). The 23-year-old right-hander didn't pitch in 2010, but he has a 2.42 ERA with 11.8 K/9 and 5.7 BB/9 in 111 2/3 minor league innings.
- The Blue Jays signed Mike Hinckley, according to Matt Eddy of Baseball America. The lefty posted a 1.93 ERA in 28 games with the Nationals from 2008-09. Last year he posted 6.8 K/9 and 3.7 BB/9 in 46 2/3 innings in the upper minors.
- Josh Barfield, Ryan Feierabend and Brandon Moss all got Spring Training invitations from the Phillies according to MLB.com's Todd Zolecki.
Odds & Ends: Rangers, Greinke, Ordonez, Rays
Links for Friday, exactly one year after the Cubs signed John Grabow and traded Aaron Heilman to Arizona…
- Vladimir Guerrero is talking to the Rangers and three other AL teams, according to Jon Heyman of SI.com (on Twitter).
- Heyman reports that Bengie Molina wants to play another year (Twitter link).
- Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. suggested that Raul Ibanez and Jayson Werth are comparable hitters, according to David Murphy of the Philadelphia Daily News. That's probably not the first comparison agent Scott Boras would make about Werth.
- An AL executive explained to Sherman that he believes the Royals will trade Zack Greinke sooner rather than later for two reasons: the demand for ace-level starters is high and the Royals don’t want to see a personal or physical issue reduce Greinke’s value.
- Boras tells Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports that Magglio Ordonez has finished rehabilitating his fractured right ankle and "returned to full workout routines"
- Rays president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman tells Cork Gaines of Rays Index that he's likely to hold onto his starting pitching because it's so hard to come by.
Orioles Interested In Bartlett, Hardy
The Orioles have discussed potential trades for Jason Bartlett and J.J. Hardy with the Rays and Twins, according to Jeff Zrebiec of the Baltimore Sun. The Orioles discussed trading David Hernandez to the Rays for Bartlett, but the deal seems unlikely at this point.
Hardy is a non-tender candidate after a 2010 season in which he missed time with a bruised wrist and batted .268/.320/.394 in 375 plate appearances. The 28-year-old continued to play strong defense, according to UZR.
Like Hardy, Bartlett is heading into his final year as an arbitration eligible player. He earned $4MM in 2010, while Hardy made $5.1MM. Bartlett batted .254/.324/.350 in 532 plate appearances. If they trade the 31-year-old, the Rays could pencil Reid Brignac in at short.
O’s president of baseball operations Andy MacPhail wouldn’t comment on specific players, but said he has had some “productive disucssions” at the GM Meetings in Orlando. The team could still bring back free agent shortstop Cesar Izturis.
Justin Upton Rumors: Wednesday
Today's Justin Upton rumors…
- One AL exec told SI.com's Jon Heyman (Twitter link) that Arizona's asking price for Upton is "ridiculous."
- The Rockies inquired on Upton, according to the Denver Post's Troy Renck. A Diamondbacks official expects the team would be willing to deal within the division, though they'd have to receive a very strong offer.
- The Upton rumors are more than just talk, says ESPN.com's Jayson Stark, who was told the D'Backs are "genuinely open" to moving the 23-year-old. However, it might take a package of five players who could help the team in the short- and long-term (Twitter links).
- The Red Sox discussed Upton with the D'Backs late into Tuesday night, reports CSNNE.com's Sean McAdam, but talks are now stalled over Towers' latest demands.
- The Braves are unlikely to pursue Upton after trading for Dan Uggla, GM Frank Wren implied (via Joel Sherman on Twitter).
- The D'Backs will seek at least four or five players in return for Upton, reports Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic. He believes perhaps three of those players would have to be big league ready.
- USA Today's Bob Nightengale introduced the idea of Upton as a trade candidate on Monday, and the rumors took off yesterday. Today, Nightengale says the Yankees' offer for Upton has fallen short but the Red Sox remain engaged. Diamondbacks GM Kevin Towers described the Upton trade talks as "people kicking the tires right now."
- Towers told Joel Sherman of the New York Post, "[Upton] would be a tough guy to move. But you always seek out the information on what teams will do because you never know if, to get one player, a team will grossly overpay." Sherman added via Twitter that the D'Backs "have [a] growing belief [they] will trade Upton based on [a] ton of interest."
- Sherman talked to one team executive who says the Marlins have had the most interest in Upton for a while. An exec speculated that Logan Morrison and Ricky Nolasco would get it done, notes Sherman.
- It's not known if the Rays would like to add a second Upton, but the execs Sherman spoke to consider them an early favorite along with the Marlins.
Odds & Ends: Gordon, Anderson, Phillies, Park
Links for Wednesday, the second day of the GM Meetings, as Ron Gardenhire and Bud Black take home Manager of the Year honors…
- Red Sox GM Theo Epstein says he'd like to add starting pitching depth, tweets Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald.
- The Rockies, Blue Jays, and Athletics are among the teams that have shown interest in Alex Gordon according to MLB.com's Dick Kaegel. "I surely don't want [a trade] to happen, but it's part of baseball and it could happen," said Gordon.
- Bob Dutton of The Kansas City Star reports that outfielder turned pitcher Brian Anderson has opted for free agency after being designated for assignment by the Royals.
- David Murphy of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports Phillies GM Ruben Amaro reiterated that he has not been given a firm payroll by ownership. Their payroll has increased steadily over the last several years, peaking at approximately $138MM last season.
- The Pirates and reliever Chan Ho Park have mutual interest in a new contract, writes MLB.com's Jenifer Langosch, but Langosch believes the Bucs would only do a minor league deal. Park posted a 3.49 ERA, 7.3 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, and 0.6 HR/9 for the Pirates this year after coming over from the Yankees. Jeremy Bonderman is also on the Pirates' radar, reports Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review.
- White Sox owner Jerry Reinsdorf confirmed to Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times that the Sox asked the Marlins for a particular player as compensation for talking to manager Ozzie Guillen. Reinsdorf told Wittenmyer the player was not Mike Stanton; the Sun-Times writer speculates it may have been Logan Morrison.
- As you might expect, the Rays are not in a big rush to trade B.J. Upton given the loss of Carl Crawford, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. Rosenthal feels the Rays will also be reluctant to trade a starting pitcher right now, but would be willing to part with shortstop Jason Bartlett.
Minor Deals: Balentien, Bailey, Hoffpauir, Miller
Collecting the day's minor league signings…
- Outfielder Wladimir Balentien is joining the Yakult Swallows in Japan, according to this report passed along on Twitter by NPB Tracker's Patrick Newman. The 26-year-old hit .282/.337/.536 with 25 home runs in 452 Triple-A plate appearances for the Reds' affiliate.
- The Twins signed 32-year-old outfielder/first baseman Jeff Bailey, reports Seth Stohs. Bailey hit .289/.387/.462 with 12 home runs in 564 Triple-A plate appearances for the Diamondbacks' affiliate.
- The Twins also signed infielder Chase Lambin, tweets Baseball America's Matt Eddy. The 31-year-old hit .252/.327/.414 with 15 homers in 548 plate appearances for the National's Triple-A affiliate in 2011. He has never played in the the big league, but did spend 2009 in Japan.
- MLB.com's Carrie Muskat reports that Micah Hoffpauir has signed a one-year deal with the Nippon Ham fighters. The 30-year-old hit .251/.312/.421 in 394 plate appearances with the Cubs over the last three seasons.
- The Mariners have signed right-hander Justin Miller according to Eddy (via Twitter). In 24.1 innings with the Dodgers last year, the 33-year-old pitched to a 4.44 ERA with 11.1 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9. The Mariners are his ninth organization.
- Seattle also signed shortstop Sean Kazmar, tweets Eddy. He hit .275/.326/.381 for San Diego's Triple-A affiliate this year, and saw some big league action with them back in 2008.
- The Rays signed righty reliever Cory Wade, says Eddy (via Twitter). The 27-year-old had a 2.27 ERA with 6.4 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9 in 71.1 innings for the Dodgers in 2008, but he missed most of 2009 and all of 2010 after having shoulder surgery.
- Eddy tweets that the Athletics have signed outfielder Jai Miller. They lost him on a waiver claim to Kansas City back in April. The 25-year-old hit .252/.326/.490 in Triple-A last year, then .236/.300/.345 in 60 plate appearances with the Royals.
- The White Sox signed third baseman Dallas McPherson, tweets Baseball America's Matt Eddy. The 30-year-old hit .267/.339/.541 with 22 home runs in 354 plate appearances for Oakland's Triple-A affiliate this year. He hasn't spent significant time in the bigs since '06.
- The Phillies signed lefty reliever Dan Meyer, reports Bill Evans of the Gloucester County Times (hat tip to Matt Gelb). The 29-year-old signed with his hometown team after drawing interest from the Giants, Astros, Pirates, Padres, and Twins. Meyer, a big part of the Tim Hudson trade six years ago, had a strong '09 but was designated for assignment by the Marlins twice this year. He posted a 3.38 ERA, 6.1 K/9, 3.6 BB/9, and 0.9 HR/9 in 40 Triple-A innings in 2010.
Small Market Teams Time Free Agent Bids Carefully
If MLB teams want to sign top free agents, they can’t wait much longer than the Winter Meetings. But if they can’t afford to sign elite players, they generally keep waiting. The Rays, for example, will likely see Carl Crawford and Rafael Soriano sign elsewhere, since they are rarely able to bid aggressively on free agents early in the winter.
“We don’t necessarily have the resources ever,” Rays president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman told MLBTR at the GM Meetings in Orlando.
It doesn’t take long to review the early forays into free agency that Friedman has made since taking over baseball operations late in 2005. They signed Akinori Iwamura to a three-year $7.7MM deal in December, 2006, added Troy Percival on a two-year $8MM deal in November, 2007, signed Joe Nelson to a one-year deal in December, 2008 and signed Rafael Soriano to a one-year deal in December, 2009.
Other than those four signings, the Rays have added all their big league free agents in January or February. History suggests the Rays will be patient this offseason, but Friedman says he isn’t necessarily going to wait the market out.
“It’s something for us that most likely it plays out [late],” Friedman said. “But sometimes there are guys who really want to sign earlier, have that peace of mind and I think we’ll be prepared enough to know which guys to move more aggressively on than others.”
Two offseasons ago, Oliver Perez, Manny Ramirez, Adam Dunn, Dennys Reyes, Juan Cruz and Ty Wigginton were the only free agents to sign multi-year deals between February 1st and the beginning of the season. Last offseason, no free agent signed a multi-year deal between February 1st and the beginning of the season and Johnny Damon, Orlando Hudson, Orlando Cabrera and Kevin Gregg were the only free agents to sign for more than $2MM in guaranteed money after February 1st.
There is no question that spending slows down later in the winter. It’s partly because there are fewer players to spend on and partly because the players remaining have less leverage. There is a limited number of major league jobs, (especially at DH and closer) so unsigned players don’t have much bargaining power if they want to play.
That’s why Padres GM Jed Hoyer is likely to wait a couple months before replacing Ryan Webb and Edward Mujica.
“I think frankly we’ll do a lot of our damage late in the offseason as opposed to early, given the market,” Hoyer said. “So we’ll probably wait and we will probably add some relievers, but I have a feeling it’ll be later in the offseason.”
Small market teams like the Padres and Rays wait patiently and spend cautiously because they can’t afford to make Carl Pavano-sized mistakes.
“Our margin for error is significantly less than our competitors',” Friedman said. “And so it obviously makes it that much more challenging.”
The Rays did spend considerably more than usual in 2010, when they opened the season with a $72.8MM payroll. As they prepare to field a less expensive team, the Rays are looking ahead beyond 2011.
“The one mistake we can't make is treat each year like a disparate event and try to be as good as we can that year without being mindful of the future years,” Friedman said. “And so people talk a lot about 2010, that we went all in and I would agree with that from a financial standpoint. We way over-extended ourselves to field the team that we did, but we definitely didn’t from a talent standpoint. We didn’t trade off a lot of guys that are going to be key members of the 2011 and beyond.”
Call it a balancing act, call it a waiting game, the Rays’ approach has earned them a pair of division titles and, back in 2008, even more success.
“We won the American League Championship with a mid 40s payroll,” Friedman said with a grin. “It’s doable [but] it’s obviously very difficult.”
Friedman Talks Best-Case Scenario For Tampa Bay
The Rays have proven that small market teams can win in the American League East. It just takes a lot of talent, careful timing and some good fortune. Tampa Bay faces payroll cuts and the likely free agent departures of Carl Crawford, Carlos Pena and Rafael Soriano this offseason, so president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman knows it's too early to say exactly what will happen this winter. But a few months from now when Friedman looks back at the offseason, he knows precisely what he would like to see.
"That we were able to add a meaningful number of bullpen arms," Friedman told MLBTR. "Some with guaranteed deals, some on Spring Training invites and just have the options in house for us to pick and fill out a bullpen. Also to add a bat or two to the mix that helps balance us out offensively and ideally have an extended term of control beyond just 2011 [for the hitter] in an ideal world. Ideally. You asked for ideally. It may not play out that way; we may get a guy on a one-year deal and that's fine."
The Rays bullpen will look considerably different in 2011, since Soriano, Randy Choate, Grant Balfour and Dan Wheeler are all free agents. How does the team address a bullpen that's completely in flux?
"It's a good question," Friedman said. "We don't really know the answer yet in that we have a number of trade targets that we're focused on, we have a number of major league free agents, we have a number of six year [minor league] free agents and [from] some combination of all three of those pools of players, we're going to have to come out of it with four or five bullpen guys that hopefully offer a diversified look and allow us to replicate some of the success we've had recently in the bullpen."
Building a 'pen in the AL East is tough, but the Rays will look for relievers with above average pitches and hope for good luck. They won't necessarily wait around to address the 'pen, but like the Padres, they will probably add relievers later on in the offseason.