Latest On Nicholas Castellanos, Marcell Ozuna
There is little doubt that Nicholas Castellanos and Marcell Ozuna have the most earning power among free-agent outfielders. In MLBTR’s estimation, they’re the only outfielders who look like strong bets to even land $20MM guarantees this winter. We have Castellanos signing for $58MM over four years and Ozuna receiving a three-year, $45MM contract.
Compared to Ozuna, Castellanos has two obvious factors working in his favor: He’s younger (Castellanos will turn 28 in March, while Ozuna’s 29th birthday was on Tuesday) and there’s no qualifying offer weighing him down. The Cardinals, Ozuna’s most recent team, hit him with a $17.8MM QO aftter the season. Assuming he rejects it by Thursday’s deadline, which looks likely, Ozuna’s next club would have to surrender draft compensation to sign him. As for Castellanos, he was part of a trade during the 2019 campaign, going from the Tigers to the Cubs, so he was ineligible to receive a QO this offseason.
Regardless of whom you prefer, both Castellanos and Ozuna figure to draw plenty of interest now that the offseason is underway. The Reds are one team that seems to like both: Already known to have Ozuna on their radar, they’re also eyeing Castellanos, Jon Morosi of MLB.com reports. Either would give the playoff-desperate Reds a much-needed established option in the corner outfield, where the talented but largely unproven Jesse Winker and Aristides Aquino look like their best choices at the moment.
The Reds and Cardinals are two of at least a half-dozen teams open to a deal with Ozuna, according to the St. Louis Post-Dispatch’s Derrick Goold, who also names the White Sox and Rangers among the intrigued clubs. The White Sox’s interest isn’t remotely surprising. After all, they’re trying to transition from rebuilding to contending, but doing so will be difficult without significantly improving an outfield that finished dead last in the majors in fWAR (0.9) in 2019, when rookie Eloy Jimenez was their lone bright spot in the grass.
Likewise, the Rangers have one immensely valuable outfield building block (Joey Gallo), but it’s otherwise up in the air who will comprise the unit with him in 2020. Hunter Pence is a free agent (and more of.a designated hitter nowadays); Shin-Soo Choo‘s more cut out for a DH role; Nomar Mazara has disappointed and may not even be a Ranger in 2020; Willie Calhoun and Danny Santana don’t have set positions; and Delino DeShields is coming off yet another rough offensive season. All that said, there’s room for Texas to make at least one notable addition in the outfield, and with the team set to christen a new stadium in 2020, perhaps Ozuna will end up as one of its buzzworthy pickups.
White Sox Notes: Rotation, Free Agency, Trade Market
The White Sox went hard after Manny Machado last year and came up empty. But they’re back after the market with an even stronger mandate to improve this time around. Club president Kenny Williams said as much in brief comments to reporters, including Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times (Twitter link). What started as a cliche resulted in a promise of something greater from Williams. “We’re here to do business as usual,” he said before catching himself. “Well, not usual. More than usual.”
So what’s on tap for the South Siders? Pitching, among other things. GM Rick Hahn says he’s looking for two new rotation pieces this winter, as Van Schouwen tweets. Carlos Rodon underwent Tommy John surgery earlier this year, while uber-prospect Michael Kopech will be returning from his own Tommy John procedure (performed late in the 2018 season). The White Sox have Lucas Giolito, Dylan Cease and Reynaldo Lopez as rotation options in addition to the returning Kopech, Carson Fulmer and Dylan Covey. Hahn was unsurprisingly not worried about the potential to eventually have more arms than rotation spots.
Here’s more on the South Siders…
- Despite Williams’ vow to be more active, Hahn made clear that the Sox aren’t aiming for the dubious honor of “winning the offseason” (subscription link via James Fegan of The Athletic). “You know, we’ve taken home the offseason champion belt a few times,” said Hahn. “…In reality, none of that matters come September if we’re not in the thick of things.” Hahn addressed last winter’s failed pursuit of Manny Machado as well, noting that while the organization would rather have “converted” in its courtship of Machado, the public nature of the pursuit was also in some ways a “response to the general narrative that we weren’t legitimate players for such talent.”
- Hahn isn’t the only one who views the White Sox as a viable landing spot for premium free agents. Scott Boras told reporters at the GM Meetings today that he agreed with Hahn’s assessment of the team’s situation (link via Van Schouwen). “They have a lot of great young talent,” said Boras. “It’s a great city. Certainly players look at the White Sox in a very different way than they did two years ago, no question.”
- The ChiSox have a lengthy offseason wish list, of course, and they’re not likely to do all of their shopping on the free-agent market alone. Trades will surely be a part of the winter calculus, though Hahn downplayed the possibility of adding any pieces who would be a one-year rental before reaching free agency next winter (Twitter link via Fegan). Hahn was “resistant” to parting with notable young assets for such pieces. While the likes of Mookie Betts, Robbie Ray, Ken Giles and perhaps old friend Jose Quintana could all conceivably see their names kicked around the rumor mill this winter, it doesn’t sound as though the White Sox are a particularly likely landing spot for that type of veteran.
GM/Coaching Notes: Pirates, Cubs, Mets, Tigers, ChiSox
Blue Jays vice president of baseball operations Ben Cherington and Brewers assistant general manager Matt Arnold will get second interviews this week for the Pirates’ GM vacancy, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network and reporter Robert Murray. Cherington and Arnold are reportedly two of three finalists to take over in Pittsburgh. Pirates assistant GM Kevan Graves seems to be competing with them, as Rob Biertempfel of The Athletic tweets that he also appears likely to receive another interview. Meanwhile, even though the Pirates technically don’t have a GM right now, they’re also carrying on their search for a manager. Twins bench coach Derek Shelton has been particularly impressive to the club thus far, Heyman relays.
More staff news from around baseball…
- Cubs first base coach Will Venable has been popular in managerial searches in recent weeks. The Cubs discussed their job with Venable prior to their David Ross hiring, and he also sat down with the Giants in regards to their position before they selected Gabe Kapler. Now that Venable’s not going to land a managerial job this offseason (unless Pittsburgh pursues him), the former major league outfielder will stay where he is. He’ll be one of the Cubs’ base coaches in 2020, Bruce Levine of 670 The Score tweets. The Cubs have at least one opening for those positions, as third base coach Brian Butterfield left to take the same role with the Angels.
- The Mets are closing in on a deal to retain hitting coach Chili Davis, Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets. The former big league slugger is fresh off his first year with the Mets, whose offense made strides on his watch. Davis helped the club to the majors’ 13th-most runs and its seventh-highest wRC+ (104).
- The Tigers have hired Josh Paul as their quality control coach, the team announced. Paul served as the the Angels’ bench coach over the previous three years, but the Halos fired him after this season. The 44-year-old Paul was previously a major league catcher and then a well-regarded assistant in the Yankees organization.
- Nationals assistant hitting coach Joe Dillon is a legitimate candidate to become the Phillies’ hitting coach, Heyman suggests. Dillon has been working under Nats hitting coach Kevin Long, who’s a favorite of new Phillies manager Joe Girardi, as Heyman points out. Long was the Yankees’ hitting coach for part of Girardi’s tenure as their manager. Dillon, meanwhile, is an ex-major league infielder/outfielder who has two years’ experience as a coach at the game’s highest level.
- Scott Coolbaugh is the White Sox‘s new assistant hitting coach, the club announced. Coolbaugh was the Orioles’ hitting coach from 2015-18 and the Dodgers’ Triple-A hitting coach this season. He’ll team with White Sox new HC Frank Menechino in his new role.
Draft Compensation For 8 Teams That Could Lose Qualified Free Agents
Eight teams issued qualifying offers this year to ten players, with the Nationals and Giants handing out two apiece. Teams issuing the $17.8MM offer must be comfortable with the receiving player accepting, as it isn’t possible to trade such a player (absent consent) until the middle of the season. But in most cases, the offer is given with the expectation it will be declined, thus allowing the issuing team to receive a compensatory draft selection if the player signs with a new club.
As with draft forfeitures, draft compensation is largely tied to the financial status of the team losing the player. And in 2019, seven of the eight teams that issued qualifying offers fall into the same bucket: teams that neither exceeded the luxury threshold nor received revenue-sharing benefits. This applies to the Astros, Nationals, Giants, Mets, Cardinals, White Sox and Braves. In such cases, the default compensation for losing a qualified free agent is applied.
In other words, if any of Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg, Anthony Rendon, Madison Bumgarner, Will Smith, Zack Wheeler, Marcell Ozuna, Jose Abreu or Josh Donaldson signs with a new club, their former team will receive a compensatory pick between Competitive Balance Round B and Round 3 of the 2020 draft. Those selections would likely fall in the upper 70s and low 80s. Slot values in that range of the 2019 draft checked in between $730K and $700K. The Nationals and Giants, then, could add a pair of Top 100 picks and roughly $1.5MM worth of additional pool money each if they lose both of their qualified free agents.
The lone team that stands to gain a potential pick at the end of the first round would be the Twins, who issued a qualifying offer to Jake Odorizzi. Minnesota is a revenue-sharing recipient that did not exceed the luxury threshold, thus entitling the Twins to the highest level of free-agent compensation possible … if Odorizzi signs for a guaranteed $50MM or more. If Odorizzi’s total guarantees are $49.9MM or lower, the Twins would receive the same level of pick as the other seven teams who issued qualifying offers: between Competitive Balance Round B and Round 3.
Of course, if any of the players who received qualifying offers either accept the offer or re-sign with their 2019 clubs on a new multi-year deal, no draft compensation will be awarded to that team at all.
Multiple Teams Pursuing Zack Wheeler At Outset Of Free Agency
7:33pm: The Mets also remain interested in exploring a multi-year arrangement with Wheeler, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). It’s not evident how serious that possibility is — let alone whether there’s any potential for a pact to come together before Wheeler formally reaches the open market.
We’ve seen plenty of on-again/off-again chatter of a deal with Wheeler over recent months. When the Mets acquired Marcus Stroman, it was generally supposed that the club was going to move on from Wheeler, though the door stayed open when he wasn’t dealt over the summer. With obvious budgetary restrains and other needs, it still feels like a longshot.
Meanwhile, those prior trade talks also came up in reporting today. Andy Martino of SNY.tv tweets that the Mets spoke with teams right up until the deadline passed, with the Astros pushing hardest and the Yankees, Rays, and Athletics also involved.
That’s mostly of historical interest, though it could offer some clues for free agency. Indeed, the Houston organization is already engaged with Wheeler’s reps, per Heyman (via Twitter). The ‘Stros talked shop with Jet Sports today. We can only presume that the outfit’s major free agent starter came up in conversation, among other things.
2:29pm: Zack Wheeler technically has another three days to accept or reject his $17.8MM qualifying offer from the Mets, but there’s never been a realistic scenario in which he takes the one-year deal. The right-hander is widely considered to be among the four best pitchers in free agency this winter — No. 3 behind Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg, by many accounts — and should have little trouble cashing in on a lucrative multi-year pact. To that end, MLB.com’s Jon Morosi reports that the Angels, Padres and White Sox are among the teams that have shown early interest in Wheeler. Other clubs have surely checked in already and will continue to do so, of course.
Wheeler, 29, has come all the way back from a lengthy absence stemming from 2015 Tommy John surgery. He’s made 60 starts over the past two seasons and saw his fastball velocity tick up to a career-high 96.7 mph average in 2019 — the second-hardest mark of any free-agent starter on the market (behind Cole).
Wheeler had a rough handful of starts at the beginning of each of the past two seasons, but over his past 55 starts combined, he’s worked to a 3.47 ERA (3.27 FIP) with 9.0 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 0.82 HR/9 and a 43.1 percent ground-ball rate in 349 2/3 innings. Beyond the high-end velocity, Wheeler possesses above-average spin on his heater and curveball, and he’s excelled in terms of minimizing hard contact against him (90th percentile average exit-velocity among MLB starters, per Statcast).
Each of the three listed teams is a natural fit for Wheeler, though that’s true of the majority of rotation-hungry teams in the league. While the likes of Cole and Strasburg will be wholly ruled out by many clubs due to their expected $30MM+ annual salaries and over the next half decade-plus, Wheeler is quite likely someone most teams will view as affordable — even if he’s at the top end of their budget. The New York Post’s Joel Sherman quotes one team executive expressing a similar sentiment, calling Wheeler the best arm of the market’s second tier (beyond Cole and Strasburg) and adding “and everyone pretty much will believe they could afford him.”
Beyond the listed teams in Morosi’s report, it’d be a surprise if the Phillies, Twins, Braves, Yankees, Rangers, Nationals (if Strasburg departs), Dodgers, Blue Jays and others aren’t in play for the righty. Wheeler could draw the most widespread interest of any free agent on the market this winter and will probably be connected to a dozen or more additional teams between now and the time he finally puts pen to paper.
Odrisamer Despaigne Signs With KBO’s KT Wiz
Former MLB hurler Odrisamer Despaigne has inked a contract to pitch with the KT Wiz of the KBO, relays Dan Kurtz of MyKBO.net (link). The Cuban native will receive a $750K guarantee with up to $150K in incentives.
Despaigne’s name last surfaced here when he was outrighted off of the roster of the White Sox in mid-June after a rough sampling of three starts with Chicago. After his outright, the 32-year-old enjoyed a nice showing with Triple-A Charlotte, recording a 3.47 ERA and 9.0 K/9 in 124.1 innings at the highest level of the minors.
As it stands, his 2014 rookie season with the Padres stands as the highlight of a six-season major league career spent with five separate major league teams. That incipient season saw the 6’0 Despaigne log a 3.36 ERA and 3.74 FIP across 96.1 big league innings, although ensuing years exposed the hurler’s general lack of strikeout stuff as something of a liability (career 5.55 K/9 mark). Still, Despaigne will be fondly remembered by some fans for being a true everything-and-the-kitchen-sink pitcher, with Statcast recording as many as seven pitches in his toolbox (including an all-too-rare eephus offering).
The former Padre, Oriole, Marlin, Angel, and White Sox will head to his next adventure with a career 5.11 ERA through 353 innings and 50 starts at the MLB level. MLBTR wishes him all the best in his international endeavor.
White Sox, Jose Abreu Have Discussed Long-Term Contract
The White Sox have one particularly notable free agent in first baseman/designated hitter Jose Abreu, who has never looked all that likely to leave the club. Both sides have said time and again that they would like to continue their partnership, and the White Sox protected against Abreu’s exit somewhat by giving him a qualifying offer earlier this week. With that in mind, the Nov. 14 deadline to accept the QO may be moot in the case of Abreu, with whom the White Sox have discussed a long-term contract, Jeff Passan of ESPN reports.
In Abreu’s case, “long term” could be relatively short. After all, he’s a soon-to-be 33-year-old whom MLBTR has re-signing with the White Sox on a two-year, $28MM deal. Even that total looks somewhat generous for a non-elite hitter who brings little to no defensive value to the table. Just last winter, DH Nelson Cruz settled for a one-year, $14.3MM guarantee with the Twins after a somewhat more impressive season than the one Abreu just had. Cruz was then fresh off a .256/.342/.509 season with 37 home runs, whereas Abreu hit .284/.330/.503 with 33 HRs this year.
Despite Abreu’s ab0ve-average contributions at the plate, the White Sox ranked 18th in the majors in wRC+ and 24th in runs this season. They’re clearly a team in need of offensive help if they’re finally going to return to relevance in 2020, so retaining Abreu for a reasonable sum would make sense. Keeping Abreu would at least enable the White Sox to cancel out one potential need area and move on to other business.
10 Players Receive Qualifying Offers
It appears that ten players have received qualifying offers this year. Bob Nightengale of USA Today rounds up the full slate of players on Twitter, some of whom were already reported and covered on this site.
This year’s qualifying offer value is $17.8MM for a one-year term. Players issued the offer will have ten days to assess their options. Should a player reject the offer and fail to work out a deal with their existing team, he will enter the market carrying the requirement that a signing team sacrifice draft compensation. (While the former team would not stand to lose a pick, it would not gain a compensatory pick if it re-signs that player.) Click here for a full rundown of the QO rules.
This represents a bounce back up in the number of players to receive a qualifying offer. Last year was a record-low of seven, with other offseasons ranging from nine (2012, 2017) all the way up to twenty offers (2015).
Here are the ten players:
- Jose Abreu, 1B, White Sox
- Madison Bumgarner, SP, Giants
- Gerrit Cole, SP, Astros
- Josh Donaldson, 3B, Braves
- Jake Odorizzi, SP, Twins
- Marcell Ozuna, OF, Cardinals
- Anthony Rendon, 3B, Nationals
- Will Smith, RP, Giants
- Stephen Strasburg, SP, Nationals
- Zack Wheeler, SP, Mets
There are a few notable players that were eligible for the QO but did not receive it. Those players will hit the open market free and clear of draft compensation. Didi Gregorius of the Yankees and Cole Hamels of the Cubs were perhaps the leading possibilities beyond those that received the offer. J.D. Martinez would surely have received one from the Red Sox had he opted out of his deal; Aroldis Chapman was also certain to get a QO had he not agreed to a new contract. Quite a few other prominent free agents were ineligible because they were traded during the 2019 season and/or had previously received a qualifying offer.
Rangers Acquire Welington Castillo
The Rangers have acquired catcher Welington Castillo and international draft bonus pool money from the White Sox in exchange for minor league outfielder and corner infielder Jonah McReynolds, as per Rangers executive VP of communications John Blake (Twitter link). Texas has also outrighted left-hander Jesse Biddle and outfielder Zack Granite to Triple-A, with Biddle first being reinstated from the 60-day injured list.
The Rangers will get $250K in international bonus funds, as per Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News (Twitter link), which seems to have been the team’s real incentive for the trade. Texas is expected to decline Castillo’s $8MM club option and instead pay him a $500K buyout.
In essence, the White Sox decided to save that $500K of Major League payroll in favor of giving up $250K in international money. It could be that the Sox also simply decided McReynolds was of more interest to them than any other prospects who might arise on the international market.
Castillo became expendable in Chicago after he hit only .209/.267/.417 over 251 PA in 2019, losing playing time to James McCann in the process. This comes on the heels of a 2018 season that saw Castillo post some respectable numbers (94 OPS+, 96 wRC+) for a catcher over 181 PA, though that year was marred by an 80-game PED suspension.
While the $8MM salary was too rich for the Rangers’ liking, it wouldn’t be a total surprise to see the team have an interest in Castillo at a lower price. While Castillo struggled at the plate last year, his numbers still represent an improvement over what the current Texas catching corps (Jeff Mathis, Jose Trevino, Isiah Kiner-Falefa) produced in 2019. Then again, the Rangers could also choose to stand pat at catcher since they have several other areas to address this winter.
McReynolds, who turns 24 in December, was a 13th-round pick for the Rangers in the 2016 draft. He has a .217/.285/.322 slash line over 637 PA in his first four pro seasons, the last three of which have been spent at low A-ball. He has played all over the diamond as a professional, though spent much of 2019 focused on third base and first base.
Red Sox Claim Josh Osich
The Red Sox have claimed left-hander Josh Osich off waivers from the White Sox, as per a team announcement.
Originally claimed off waivers from the Orioles last March, Osich posted a 4.66 ERA, 4.07 K/9 rate, and 8.1 K/9 over 67 2/3 relief innings for the White Sox last season. Osich’s effectiveness was limited to same-sided batters, as he held left-handed hitters to only a .551 OPS (115 plate appearances) while right-handed hitters mashed him to the tune of a .903 OPS (157 PA).
These numbers largely match Osich’s rather lopsided splits for his career, making him one of many specialist relievers (particularly lefties) whose careers could be altered by the three-batter minimum rule coming into effect in 2020. From Boston team in need of bullpen reinforcements, however, clearly the team sees value in exploring Osich’s potential. The 31-year-old does possess a mid-90’s fastball, and he has a solid 48.5% grounder rate over his 188 career MLB innings.
The waiver claim will shave a little bit of money off Chicago’s book, as Osich was projected to earn $1MM in his first year of arbitration eligibility.