White Sox, Dodgers Nearing Trade; Frankie Montas Involved
The White Sox and Dodgers are nearing the completion of a trade, reports Yahoo’s Jeff Passan (on Twitter). Top right-handed pitching prospect Frankie Montas would head to the Dodgers in the deal, Passan notes, so it figures to be a fairly significant move. Passan does add that Yasiel Puig is not a part of the developing transaction.
Specific parameters beyond that remain unclear, but both clubs aim to contend in 2016, so each team will likely be acquiring players that can contribute in immediate fashion. (Montas, who made his Major League debut in 2015, fits that bill for the Dodgers.) The White Sox could use upgrades at shortstop and one of second base or third base (Brett Lawrie will man the other position).
West Notes: Cueto, Giants, Astros, Dodgers
Giants GM Bobby Evans discussed the prospective addition of Johnny Cueto yesterday, noting the deal’s upside, as Alex Pavlovic of CSNBayArea.com reports. “You have a guy that has a chance to be an elite presence in your rotation if he’s healthy and we can play good defense behind him and he uses our ballpark to his advantage,” said Evans. Of course, the deal is not yet official, though Evans’s comments appear to suggest that the club isn’t too worried about the physical, which John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle says (on Twitter) will likely take place Wednesday.
Here’s more from out west:
- The San Francisco GM also addressed the team’s outfield search, indicating that he’ll continue to keep an eye on all potential options in the market. But a significant move isn’t likely after the commitments to Cueto and Jeff Samardzija, Pavlovic reports.
- ESPN.com’s Keith Law discusses the Cueto move, explaining that there’s a good deal of risk for the Giants but noting that there are some positives. For one thing, says Law, the veteran looks to be a good fit for spacious AT&T Park; for another, the early opt-out provision (after two years) arguably makes better sense than other such uses of that type of clause. Of course, it ultimately all comes down to whether Cueto will return to form or if his rough second half is an indication of the future.
- The Astros would “definitely like to bring in another starter,” owner Jim Crane said yesterday, as Jose de Jesus Ortiz tweets (video link). Houston has real interest in Yovani Gallardo, could potentially match up on Mike Leake, and remains interested in a reunion with Scott Kazmir, Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle reports. The team doesn’t appear to be moving on Kenta Maeda, he adds, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if GM Jeff Luhnow and co. decide to wait out the market and “bargain hunt.”
- Former big league catcher Josh Bard is likely to join the Dodgers coaching staff, Jon Morosi of FOX Sports tweets. He’s expected to slot in as the bullpen coach, Morosi suggests.
Giants, Johnny Cueto Progressing Toward Deal
3:17pm: ESPN’s Buster Olney reports that the two sides are making progress on a deal and could have an agreement in place soon (Twitter link).
2:34pm: Jon Heyman of CBS Sports reports that the Giants and Cueto are discussing a deal that “easily” tops the $120MM figure he rejected from Arizona. The Dodgers and “a couple others” are still in the mix, but the Giants are working the hardest to get something done. The deal being discussed with San Francisco (and others) will “likely” contain an opt-out clause, Heyman adds.
1:48pm: The Cardinals and Dodgers have both “dabbled” in Cueto’s market, tweets Crasnick, but both teams were hesitant to even approach the reported $120-126MM that Cueto rejected, let alone exceed it.
1:24pm: ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick reports that action on Cueto does indeed seem to be picking up (links to Twitter). One source that spoke to Crasnick and knows Cueto’s market well feels that the right-hander could ultimately top the $120-126MM offer he rejected from the D-backs.
12:46pm: The Giants are making a “strong push” for right-hander Johnny Cueto, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (Twitter link).
San Francisco, of course, was a finalist for the services of Zack Greinke but lost out to a stunning last-minute push by the division-rival Diamondbacks. Since that time, they’ve added Jeff Samardzija on a five-year, $90MM contract, but they’ve reportedly been open to bringing in another starter in addition to that signing. Cueto has already rejected a six-year offer from the D-backs that was reported to be worth $120-126MM in total, which should serve as a barometer of sorts when gauging the type of money it will take to sign him. Of course, it’s not certain that Cueto will sign for more than that figure — his market may have some down a bit, he may simply not have wanted to play with the D-backs, etc. — but it’d be a surprise to see him take substantially less just two weeks after that reported offer.
Cueto, 30 in February, posted a combined 3.44 ERA in 212 innings with the Reds and Royals this past season. His late struggles with Kansas City are well known at this point, as he recorded a 6.49 ERA over his final 51 1/3 innings on his new club. Cueto had mixed results in the playoffs, struggling in two starts but also delivering a pair of masterpieces, including a one-run, complete game victory over the Mets in Game Two of the World Series.
Cueto missed a small amount of time over the summer with a minor elbow injury that never sent him to the disabled list. Regardless, the earlier injury and rocky performance with the Royals has created a fair amount of skepticism surrounding him this offseason, at least in the media. Clearly, with at least one club willing to offer a significant six-year contract, teams aren’t completely scared off by any uncertainties that may exist regarding his right elbow.
Central Notes: Frazier, Rodriguez, Melancon, Royals
The Indians and White Sox were both rumored to be interested in Todd Frazier during last week’s Winter Meetings (the Royals, too, are said to have discussed him as a possible left field option), and Jon Heyman of CBS Sports adds a few more teams to the list of interested clubs. The Dodgers, Nationals, Rangers and Angels are all “believed to have some involvement or interest,” in the Reds‘ third baseman, Heyman writes. Talks are “starting to percolate,” says Heyman. Last week, C. Trent Rosecrans of the Cincinnati Enquirer reported that the Reds are “heavily” shopping Frazier.
A few more notes from the game’s Central divisions…
- Utility man Sean Rodriguez is generating interest from four clubs at the moment, including the Pirates and Tigers, tweets ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick. The 30-year-old batted just .246/.281/.362 in 240 PAs with the Pirates last season, but his ability to play all four infield positions as well as the outfield corners is a selling point, Crasnick notes.
- In an appearance on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM, Pirates GM Neal Huntington confirmed that he’s willing to listen to offers on closer Mark Melancon (Twitter link). However, he also added, “We’re gonna have to get something that really makes sense to even consider moving him.” The Pirates recently freed up some money by trading Charlie Morton to the Phillies and may have saved a bit of cash in the Neil Walker/Jon Niese swap, so there may not be as much pressure, financially speaking, to move him as there was even one week ago.
- Despite last season’s World Series Championship, the Royals are expected to operate with a payroll that is similar to 2015’s mark of $115MM, writes the Kansas City Star’s Sam Mellinger. As such, it’s unlikely that the club is able to retain Alex Gordon, barring unforeseen circumstances. Specifically, Mellinger writes that the club could circle back to Gordon if he lingers on the open market, unable to find a significant pact (presumably, one of five years). Mellinger notes that recent Royals free agents James Shields and Ervin Santana saw their price drop substantially later in the offseason, and the team does believe that the crowded outfield market means that supply and demand are working in its favor with regards to the outfield market, Mellinger writes. It does seem unlikely (to me, anyhow) that Gordon’s price will dip back into Kansas City’s comfort zone, although the Royals do have to be encouraged to hear that the Cardinals aren’t likely to embark on an aggressive pursuit of Gordon.
Reported Runner-Up Offers For Heyward And Greinke
The most important numbers involved in any free agent scenario are, obviously, the final deal terms. But the offers made by other clubs are not only interesting but also potentially tell us something about the market — both at the time of the signing and even moving forward.
We heard plenty of discussion today about how much cash was dangled in front of two of this year’s three biggest free agent pieces: Jason Heyward and Zack Greinke. Heyward reportedly agreed with the Cubs for eight years and $184MM, with a contract provision allowing him two separate opportunities to opt out of the deal and re-enter the market. Meanwhile, after exercising just such a clause to jump back into the free agent waters, Greinke inked a mind-blowing six-year, $206.5MM deal with the Diamondbacks (which included some very significant deferrals).
Before entering those arrangements, both players considered multiple other arrangements. For Heyward, the elusive $200MM barrier was reportedly met or exceeded by both the Nationals and the Cardinals. (Per Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch — here and here — and Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports, on Twitter.) And at least one other team, possibly the Angels, also beat Chicago’s total guarantee with its bid. (That’s per Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports, Twitter links; see here for the Halos’ late interest.)
Notably, though, we’ve not been told how many years Washington and St. Louis covered in their offers, and Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets that it seems neither met the $23MM AAV that Heyward will reportedly receive. And as Keith Law of ESPN.com stresses on Twitter, it’s even more important to bear in mind that the opt-out opportunities carry significant value and that Heyward will owe less in state taxes in Illinois than he would have in the other locales.
While acknowledging the opt-out value, Passan notes that it’s nevertheless “uncommon” for a player to turn down a greater overall guarantee, and that’s largely true in the abstract. But it’s important to remember, too, that Heyward’s unique market placement — he hasn’t even reached the halfway point between 26 and 27 years of age — makes his situation quite a bit different from that of most free agents.
For one thing, Heyward’s age arguably increases the worth of those bail-out clauses even further, since he’ll gain the right to re-enter the market in advance of his age-29 season. That’s still early for a free agent, and might give Heyward a chance not only to step up his AAV (if his performance increases and/or salary inflation continues) but also to tack on more years down the line. Greinke pulled exactly that trick despite turning 32 before signing his new deal, and the upside for Heyward is even greater.
Also, gaining two opt-out points will allow Heyward to assess his market timing while keeping the future guarantee in his back pocket. That not only adds to the value going to him in this deal but also increases the uncertainty and risk for the Cubs.
It’s worth noting, too, that even if Heyward does play out the full eight years in Chicago, he’ll stand to hit the market again before he turns 35. That’s exactly the point in his career that Ben Zobrist finds himself as he joins the Cubs on a four-year, $56MM contract. There’s good reason to believe that Heyward will be plenty capable of continuing to earn money on the open market at the end of his deal, which makes it much easier (and arguably wise) to forego another year (or two) of commitment for a relatively marginal bump in the overall guarantee — all at the cost of annual earning power.
Simply put, without knowing whether the other bidders were willing to include similar opt-out terms, and without knowing the length of their proposals, it’s impossible to compare the offers. From my perspective, though, the deal that Heyward ultimately agreed to is a better contract for him than the straight ten-year, $200MM deal that we at MLBTR thought Heyward could command (see here and here).
As for Greinke, the veteran righty said today in his introductory press conference that he was literally minutes away from signing with some unknown other club before Arizona swept in. ESPN’s Molly Knight tweeted that the Giants were actually the runners up, making Greinke a six-year, $195MM offer.
But San Francisco’s president of baseball operations Brian Sabean has said publicly that the club was not comfortable promising Greinke a sixth year. And both Alex Pavlovic of CSN Bay Area (Twitter link) and John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle (also on Twitter) strongly disputed the notion that the Giants had come anywhere near the D-Backs’ offer.
The Dodgers, too, are said to have balked at going to six years on Greinke, as MLB.com’s Mark Saxon was among those to note recently (Twitter link). It remains unclear how high the Los Angeles offer was, and whether it or another team was the one that nearly struck a deal with Greinke.
Looking at all of those reported offers, it seems clear that there are several clubs that have the capacity and willingness to spend much more money this winter than they have so far. That’s not to say that all will actually put that cash right back into free agency. But the potential is there, and it’s also notable that an unexpected team (the Diamondbacks) put so much cash onto the market.
All said, there’s plenty left to be spent. And that makes sense: more than half of MLBTR’s top fifty free agents — including six of the top ten — remain unsigned at present.
Johnny Cueto’s Agent On Cardinals, Market
The Winter Meetings in Nashville are nearly through and many of the open market’s starting pitchers have found their homes for 2016 and beyond. However, one of this class’s very best, Johnny Cueto, is still searching for his big payday. Cueto is a bona fide ace with years of experience at the head of the Reds’ rotation, but a number of his expected suitors have already allocated major funds towards the top of the starting five. Even though some might have the impression that Cueto’s market is shrinking, agent Bryce Dixon told MLB Trade Rumors in a 1-on-1 interview that he doesn’t see things that way.
“You can always add an ace pitcher to your staff. All thirty teams can use a Cueto,” Dixon told MLBTR on Wednesday in Nashville, Tennessee. “So, yeah, there are teams like the Diamondbacks that have added a [Zack] Greinke and a [Shelby] Miller, so maybe their appetite for him has lessened but, no, I don’t view the market as shrinking up. I’m still finding interest and there still seems to be enough out there for him to land comfortably with a team.”
So far, Cueto has yet to receive an offer that clearly separates him from the second tier of starting pitchers and Dixon says that he is comfortable in waiting. A few weeks ago, Cueto’s camp was handed a sizable offer from the Diamondbacks, one that was worth $126MM over six years, according to ESPN.com’s Buster Olney (on Twitter). Some observers suggested that the offer was a strong one given Cueto’s second half issues and 50/50 showing in the postseason, but Dixon says that he did not discuss the offer at length with the pitcher before they turned it down.
Dixon concedes that the Diamondbacks are one club that does not have a clear fit for Cueto at this stage, but, on paper, the Cardinals do stand out as a team that would have the need and the resources required to sign the veteran. Still, some outsiders have suggested that unpleasant history between the two sides could get in the way of a union. In 2010, the Reds and Cardinals got into a brawl and, in one exchange, Cueto kicked catcher Jason LaRue in the head while wearing spikes. The impact of the kick left LaRue with concussion issues that forced him to retire at the end of the 2010 season. The brawl may still be fresh in the minds of some Cardinals fans, but the Cardinals organization has not brought up the incident in their talks with Cueto’s camp.
“I can’t speak to how the Cardinals feel. ..Obviously [Johnny] regrets how the fight went down,” Dixon told MLB Trade Rumors on Wednesday afternoon. “He’s expressed regret over it in the past. He loves pitching in the NL Central. He’s the best pitcher of our era in the NL Central. It would be a good marriage [between] Johnny and the Cardinals. I think once the fans got past the fight and they saw what a gamer Johnny is and what he could bring to the team, I think they would be able to embrace him now, though I don’t think that they’ll do that overnight.”
Dixon went on to explain that the circumstances of the brawl were complicated. Cueto was pushed up against the screen and, feeling trapped, he made a split-second reaction that he deeply regrets. For a time, the fight may have defined him as someone who is angry or violent, but those who work with and around Cueto, he says, can attest to his mellow character and positive attitude. Ultimately, Dixon can see the Cardinals being a great landing spot for his client.
“Johnny’s best friend is Brayan Pena (Pena signed a two-year deal with St. Louis this winter). Johnny would love to pitch to him and a catcher like [Yadier] Molina, so I think it would be a good fit. Whether the Cardinals step up with the necessary resources, that remains to be seen. But he has no problem towards the Cardinals and the manager of that [2010 Cardinals] team [Tony La Russa] is with the Diamondbacks organization now. He came down and met Johnny and they had no problem. It’s in the past. It’s unfortunate that it happened, but, on our side, we’ve moved on,” said Dixon.
Dixon could see Cueto forming a strong rotation alongside Adam Wainwright, Michael Wacha, and Carlos Martinez, but he could also envision his client looking good in Dodger blue next to Clayton Kershaw in L.A.’s rotation. Those are just two of the fits that Dixon can see for Cueto at this stage and he’s still willing to wait for what he feels is an appropriate pact. When asked to put a timetable on a Cueto signing, Dixon indicated that it could happen in a matter of minutes or a matter of weeks. One option he’s not considering at this time, however, is a one-year pillow deal to allow Cueto to cash in next winter.
“I don’t think we’re going to have to go down that road. We’ll remain flexible but I don’t anticipate something like that,” he said.
West Notes: Cueto, Puig, Rangers, D’Backs, Phillips, Padres
The Dodgers have “joined the fray” on free agent righty Johnny Cueto, per Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com. It’s not immediately clear whether that indicates any stepped-up interest on the part of the Dodgers, who were previously said to have reached out to Cueto’s representatives recently. Indeed, agent Bryce Dixon told MLBTR’s Zach Links yesterday that he saw L.A. as a good fit. As Heyman adds, there are “a couple other” unnamed organizations also “in the mix” for Cueto at present.
Here are a few more notes from the game’s western divisions:
- Scott Miller of Bleacher Report takes a close look at Yasiel Puig‘s standing in the Dodgers organization. He speaks extensively with both Adrian Gonzalez and A.J. Ellis (among others), who provide fascinating insight into the strained (but, perhaps, not-yet broken) relationship between Puig and his teammates.
- With the Rangers reportedly adding reliever Tony Barnette, there’s yet more reason to believe the club could strike a deal involving one of its young pen assets, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News writes. The Diamondbacks have widely been tabbed as one pursuer, and Grant says that Arizona is eyeing late-inning hurlers Shawn Tolleson and Keone Kela. Though the D’Backs are said to be hesitant to part with young righty Archie Bradley, Grant says that exactly who Texas is eyeing in trade talks.
- The Diamondbacks have talked to the Reds on multiple occasions about second baseman Brandon Phillips, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports on Twitter. Arizona’s win-now moves could help persuade Phillips to authorize a deal there, suggests Rosenthal, though MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon tweets that the veteran has not been approached to discuss his no-trade rights.
- As with the Barnette signing, bringing in Christian Bethancourt isn’t necessarily just an isolated move for the Padres, Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune explains. The move leaves the club with four catchers on its 40-man roster, and the two most recent additions — Betancourt and Josmil Pinto — are out of options. San Diego was “shopping” both Derek Norris and Austin Hedges over the week, per Lin, who suggests that it wouldn’t be terribly surprising to see one of them dealt.
Dodgers Moving On From Aroldis Chapman
The Dodgers have moved on from left-hander Aroldis Chapman and are now weighing a run at Yankees lefty Andrew Miller, as well as other options, in their quest to bolster the back-end of their bullpen, reports Jon Heyman of CBS Sports (Twitter link). Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported yesterday that the Dodgers and Astros were talking about Miller with the Yankees, although one would assume that Houston’s reported acquisition of Ken Giles from Philadelphia takes them out of that market.
The Dodgers were said on Monday to have reached a deal to acquire Chapman from the Reds, but later in the day it was reported that the trade had not yet been completed. Eventually, it was reported that Chapman had allegedly been involved in a highly troublesome domestic dispute back in October. While no arrests were issued at the time of the incident, the league is indeed investigating the matter and, under its new domestic violence policy, could take action of some kind against Chapman.
Astros, Orioles Showing Interest In Yovani Gallardo
The Astros and Orioles are among the clubs showing interest in free-agent right-hander Yovani Gallardo, according to a pair of reports from Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle and Jon Morosi of FOX Sports (Twitter link). It’s not clear if there have been significant discussions between Houston and Gallardo’s camp, but Morosi indicates that Baltimore is talking with Gallardo’s agent, Bobby Witt of Octagon. Drellich, though, does point out that Jim Stevenson, the scout who originally signed Gallardo, is now with the Astros. Chris Cotillo of SB Nation tweets that the Dodgers aren’t planning to enter the Gallardo market.
Gallardo, 30 in February, is coming off a solid season with the Rangers in which he totaled 184 1/3 innings of 3.42 ERA ball for his hometown club, averaging 5.9 K/9 against 3.3 BB/9 to go along with a 49.3 percent ground-ball rate. While it looked like he might settle in as a potential front-line arm from 2009-12 when he averaged about 200 innings and better than a strikeout per frame each year, Gallardo has settled in as more of a mid-rotation arm. He’s seen his strikeout rate dip considerably over the past three seasons, and his 90.4 mph average fastball in 2015 was more than two miles per hour slower than his 92.7 mph peak.
Nonetheless, Gallardo has proven to be a highly durable arm, delivering 184 or more innings in each of the past seven seasons. He’s never hit the disabled list with an arm-related injury, either, so clubs can feel reasonably confident that he can supply 180 to 200 league-average innings. That skill set has proven valuable on the free-agent market in the past, as evidenced by contracts for players like Ricky Nolasco, Ervin Santana, Scott Feldman, Jason Vargas and more. Drellich notes that a four-year deal seems like a necessary requirement to secure Gallardo’s services, which is line with MLBTR’s expectations from early November, when we predicted a four-year, $52MM contract.
Mets Deep In Talks On Neil Walker With Pirates
2:16pm: Then again, Joel Sherman of the New York Post hears a deal is indeed near. (Twitter link.)
2:05pm: Ackert’s source now tells her a deal is “definitely in the works” but is “not close to being done.” (Twitter link.)
2:02pm: The Mets are “closing in” on a deal for Walker, Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News reports (via Twitter).
1:00pm: It appears that the Pirates are targeting starting pitching in any deal for Walker, according to a series of reports.
Jon Niese of the Mets is one name that has come up in talks as a “possible return” for Walker, Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports on Twitter. He’s owed $9MM for the coming season, which is close to Walker’s expected cost, and can also be controlled via successive $10MM and $11MM options.
As for the Angels, it’s not clear which of several possible players could make the most sense. Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times suggests on Twitter that Hector Santiago would make for a “good fit” in Pittsburgh, but I’d have to think the Bucs would need to add to Walker to pry him free. Meanwhile, Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review notes in a tweet that C.J. Wilson could be a part of a trade, though he notes that the Halos would have to add cash for that to line up.
Meanwhile, the Nationals do have interest but it is “nothing serious,” per MLB.com’s Bill Ladson (via Twitter).
11:35am: The Angels are also among the teams with strong interest, according to reports from Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times (via Twitter) and Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review (Twitter link). The Dodgers also have interest, he adds, though it’s not as significant.
11:22am: The Nationals have joined the Mets with interest in Pirates second baseman Neil Walker, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reports on Twitter. Both teams heavily pursued Ben Zobrist in free agency and are now apparently looking at backup options.
Notably, the Mets were spurned by Zobrist despite feeling confident that they would get a deal done. And the Nationals joined the Giants in topping the offer that he eventually took with the Cubs, according to a report from James Wagner of the Washington Post. It’s apparent, then, that both clubs had serious interest.
Given that the division rivals were said to be looking at Zobrist primarily as a second baseman, Walker represents a less-versatile, less-accomplished, but younger alternative. The 30-year-old is also a switch hitter, though he’s been far better against righties than lefties. He’s never put up the numbers that Zobrist has at the plate, but does own a strong .272/.338/.431 career batting line.
Walker is quite a different asset from Zobrist, though, as he’s only under team control for one more season. MLBTR projects that he could command $10.7MM through the arbitration process.
Pittsburgh also had talks with the Orioles, Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review tweets, but those discussions were ended when they failed to develop any traction.