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Jon Gray Done For Season Due To Foot Injury

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Rangers right-hander Jon Gray is done for the season due to a foot injury. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News was among those to relay the news on X from manager Bruce Bochy. Gray is not yet on the injured list but will presumably be placed there shortly. Righty Tyler Mahle is also “pretty much shut down,” according to Bochy, per Kennedi Landry of MLB.com on X.

The Rangers are out of contention at this point, so there’s little reason for any individual player to push through an injury. They are 65-73 and 9.5 games back of a playoff spot with just a few weeks left to play. At this point, there’s nothing to suggest Gray’s foot issue will impact his 2025 campaign, but it seems he will sit out what’s left of the 2024 season. Mahle has already been on the IL for about two weeks due to shoulder stiffness, but it appears he may not have enough time to ramp back up before the schedule is done.

That doesn’t matter much in the short term because, as mentioned, the club is effectively done in the context of the current campaign. But taken in aggregate, the club may have some concerns with next year’s rotation. Both Max Scherzer and Andrew Heaney are slated for free agency this winter. Nathan Eovaldi is likely to be joining them. He needs to pitch 16 more innings this year to unlock a $20MM player option for 2025. But even if he does open up that player option, it would be logical for him to turn it down and head to the open market in search of a lengthier deal with a larger guarantee.

The core of next year’s rotation, on paper, consists of Gray, Mahle and Jacob deGrom. Gray has only thrown 102 2/3 innings this year as he made two separate stints to the IL due to a right groin strain. Now this foot injury will prevent him from adding to that total. Both Mahle and deGrom underwent Tommy John surgery last summer and have been working back to health this year. Mahle made three starts, logging 12 2/3 innings, before heading back to the IL with the aforementioned shoulder soreness. deGrom hasn’t yet pitched at the big league level but is currently on a rehab assignment and could be back in the majors before the season is out.

That leaves the club going into 2025 with a rotation nucleus consisting of three guys who will be coming off incomplete seasons due to injuries. Cody Bradford, Dane Dunning and Jack Leiter figure to be in the mix for jobs, but Bradford and Dunning also missed time due to injury this year. With Bradford, a low back strain limited him to 56 innings in the majors. Dunning made two separate trips to the IL due to shoulder problems and logged 90 1/3 innings. He’s currently on optional assignment. Leiter still has just five big league outings under his belt and an ERA of 11.78 in those.

Kumar Rocker is looking good in the minors but is also coming back from a 2023 Tommy John surgery, like deGrom and Mahle. His numbers have been great this year, a 1.71 ERA, but in just 31 2/3 innings. He’s at the Triple-A level now and is technically close to major league readiness, but it’s unclear how much the Rangers can realistically expect him to provide next year.

Taken all together, there’s plenty of rotation uncertainty going into 2025, so it should be a priority for the Rangers this winter. For the rest of the season, they will have a rotation of Eovaldi, Heaney, Bradford and Leiter. With Gray heading to the IL, perhaps Dunning will be recalled from his optional assignment. Or the club also has veterans José Ureña and Chase Anderson currently in their bullpen for long relief work, with either of them candidates to make some spot starts down the stretch.

Latest On Max Scherzer

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  • It has been over a month since Max Scherzer last pitched, as he was dealing with right shoulder fatigue and then had a Double-A rehab start on August 23 canceled for unspecified reasons.  Scherzer discussed the situation with MLB.com’s Kennedi Landry and other reporters this weekend, saying he was hampered by a nerve problem in his triceps area, but it wasn’t actual nerve damage, as tests revealed.  A change to Scherzer’s throwing motion might’ve “solved this,” as “there was something mechanically going on with my elbow and elbow retraction that was making that radial nerve of my tricep get irritated,” Scherzer said.  “Yesterday, I got on the mound to do a full bullpen and no issue….Structurally, I’m fine.  Strength, I’m fine.  I don’t have an injury here.  This was just a nerve irritation.”  Scherzer is now hopeful that he’ll be able to properly resume his rehab program within the week, and he believes he’ll return to the Rangers rotation before the season is over.

Royals Claim Tommy Pham, Robbie Grossman

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The Royals are bolstering their outfield with a pair of veterans, as K.C. has claimed both Tommy Pham and Robbie Grossman off waivers.  The Athletic’s Katie Woo reported (X link) that Pham was claimed off the Cardinals’ waiver wire after St. Louis designated him for assignment yesterday, and MLB.com’s Anne Rogers (via X) reported that the Royals also claimed Grossman away from the Rangers.  Texas placed Grossman on outright waivers on Thursday.

Because these additions were made before September 1, Pham and Grossman would be eligible for the Royals’ postseason roster if K.C. makes it into the playoff bracket.  Coming off a dismal 106-loss season in 2023, the Royals have already far surpassed last year’s win total by posting a 75-61 record — Kansas City is in possession of the second AL wild card berth, and sit 2.5 games behind the Guardians for first place in the AL Central.

Despite this success, the outfield has been a clear weak link for K.C. for much of the season, and the ranks got even further thinned when Hunter Renfroe was placed on the injured list last week.  Beyond losing Renfroe, the Royals’ lineup took another big hit when Vinnie Pasquantino suffered a broken thumb Thursday and will likely miss the rest of the regular season.

The Royals were one of several teams who had interest in Pham prior to the trade deadline, when Pham was a very obvious trade candidate as a veteran rental on a rebuilding White Sox team.  The Cardinals ended up with Pham and Erick Fedde as part of a three-team trade involving the Dodgers and White Sox at the deadline, as St. Louis was hoping that Pham and right-hander Erick Fedde could boost both the lineup and rotation heading into the playoff stretch.

Unfortunately for Cards Nation, no surge materialized, as the Cardinals have an 11-16 record in August.  Pham himself didn’t provide much help, hitting .206/.286/.368 over 77 plate appearances during his brief stint in a St. Louis uniform.

Since Pham both wanted more playing time and wanted to join a contender, he discussed the possibility of a release with the Cardinals, and that wish has now been fully granted with the move across Missouri to the Royals.  From the Cardinals’ perspective, parting ways with Pham both created more outfield playing time for Jordan Walker, and saved a bit of payroll.  Pham has roughly $480K remaining on his original $3MM salary for the 2024 season, and Kansas City will now foot the rest of that bill.

The switch-hitting Grossman also began his season as a member of the White Sox, but was traded in May back to the Rangers, as Texas was thin on right-handed hitting.  Grossman was a known quantity in Arlington after being a regular for the 2023 World Series team, and he posted similar numbers in his second go-around as a Ranger, batting .238/.336/.362 over 122 PA for Texas this season.

The Rangers’ defense of their title has fallen far short of expectations, and thus the team put both Grossman and fellow outfielder Travis Jankowski on outright waivers to see if another team would clear a few dollars off the Rangers’ books.  Grossman has about $240K remaining of his $1.5MM base salary, so it makes for another inexpensive add for the Royals.

Grossman has continued to mash left-handed pitching and Pham has continued to post solid numbers against southpaws as well, giving Kansas City two new options to work within the lineup.  Either player could slot into Renfroe’s role as a regular right fielder who cedes some at-bats against righties to Adam Frazier, or either Pham or Grossman could spell MJ Melendez (another left-handed bat) in left field.  With the DH spot also up for grabs, it isn’t hard to imagine Pham or Grossman moving into more or less everyday roles, at least until Renfroe is able to return.

The Royals will be the ninth team Pham has suited up with at the MLB level over the course of his 11 big league seasons, while Grossman is joining his eighth team in a 12-year career in the Show.  The duo bring plenty of experience to a young Royals team, and we just need to look back to 2023 to see how Grossman and Pham (after he joined the Diamondbacks) can help out a playoff contender.

With a playoff berth hanging in the balance, general manager J.J. Picollo has now moved aggressively to try and address his team’s lineup needs before the September 1 cutoff date.  Depending on what happens in the pennant race, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Royals make other additions to try and just get into October, even if any newcomers after September 1 wouldn’t be part of any playoff rosters.

Rangers Select Chase Anderson, Option Dane Dunning

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5:15pm: The Rangers have officially announced the selection of Anderson’s contract and optioned right-hander Dane Dunning to the minor leagues in a corresponding move. Dunning, 29, was a standout member of the club’s pitching staff last year but has struggled to a 5.38 ERA in 90 1/3 innings of work this year. Texas also announced that infielder Justin Foscue had been recalled to fill the active roster spot vacated by Grossman.

3:50pm: The Rangers are set to select the contract of right-hander Chase Anderson, according to a report from Robert Murray of FanSided this afternoon. Anderson will need to be added to the club’s 40-man roster, though a corresponding 40-man move will not be necessary after the club lost outfielder Robbie Grossman to the Royals on waivers earlier today. A corresponding active roster move will still be necessary despite the open space made by Grossman’s exit, however, as the Rangers already have 13 pitchers on their active roster.

Anderson, 36, is a veteran of eleven big league seasons who will suit up for his ninth big league club when he first dons a Rangers uniform. Most recently, the right-hander pitched for the Red Sox earlier this year after signing a big league deal that guaranteed him $1.25MM. He pitched primarily in a multi-inning relief role with Boston and posted middling results overall with a 4.85 ERA that was 10% worse than average by ERA+ and an elevated 5.60 FIP in his 52 innings of work. Those lackluster results were accompanied by disappointing peripherals, as while Anderson averaged a career-best 93.8 mph on his fastball with the Red Sox he still struck out just 15.6% of batters faced, a career low for the righty.

Those struggles in Boston didn’t stop the Rangers from signing him to a minor league deal earlier this month. The early returns on his time in the organization have not been promising, however, as he’s been shelled to the tune of a 6.94 ERA in 11 2/3 innings of work across four starts at Triple-A Round Rock to this point. Both Anderson and the Rangers are surely hoping that a move back to the majors and away from the inflated offensive environment of the Pacific Coast League will do the righty some good. The Rangers remain without Max Scherzer, Jacob deGrom, and Tyler Mahle in the rotation, a reality which has forced the club to rely on the likes of Cody Bradford, Andrew Heaney, and Jose Urena for starts this year.

Though Urena recently rejoined the bullpen, that’s still left the club relatively thin in terms of capable multi-inning arms in their relief corps. That’s a void Anderson should have no trouble filling, as he’s swung between the rotation and bullpen on a regular basis as needed since 2020 after spending the early part of his career as a prototypical back-end starter with the Diamondbacks and Brewers. The results have left much to be desired over the past half decade, but the veteran should be well-equipped to soak up innings for a Rangers club that has no real hope of defending its 2023 World Series championship in the postseason this year as they navigate the stretch run.

Rangers Giving Jack Leiter Rotation Opportunity

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An 11-14 showing in August has slammed the door shut on the Rangers’ playoff chances. The defending World Series winners will spend the season’s final month evaluating their plans for 2025. To that end, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News writes that Texas intends to give former #2 overall pick Jack Leiter regular rotation run for the rest of the year.

Leiter made his first three big league starts between April and the middle of May. The Rangers optioned him to Triple-A Round Rock on May 15 and had kept him in the minors until this week. Texas brought Leiter up as the 27th man for the second game of Wednesday’s doubleheader against the White Sox. He tossed four innings, allowing three runs on six hits with two walks and four strikeouts.

In a procedural move, Texas reassigned Leiter back to Round Rock after the game. Pitchers normally need to wait 15 days after being optioned before they can be recalled to the big leagues. That does not apply to players who were temporarily added to the roster for a doubleheader. The Rangers can recall Leiter at any time and Grant reports that they’ll keep him in the big league rotation. His next turn won’t come until early next week, at which point teams will be allowed to carry a 14th pitcher on the active roster with the September expansion.

Leiter’s professional career has not played out as smoothly as the Rangers envisioned when they drafted him in 2021. The Vanderbilt product has struggled to throw strikes consistently. He walked upwards of 13% of opponents at Double-A in each of his first two full seasons. Leiter has scaled back the free passes to some extent this year, issuing walks at a 10.6% clip with Round Rock.

While he’s unlikely to ever have pinpoint command, Leiter still has intriguing stuff. He has punched out a third of opposing hitters over 17 Triple-A starts this year. He owns a 3.51 earned run average across 77 innings with Round Rock, an impressive mark in the Pacific Coast League. The 6’1″ righty hasn’t gotten beyond four innings in any of his first four big league starts. He has allowed 22 runs (19 earned) over 13 1/3 MLB innings.

Leiter clearly isn’t a finished product. It’s nevertheless sensible for the Rangers to give him a few chances to try to find his form against big league hitters. He has logged 254 2/3 minor league frames, all of them at Double-A or above. He’s 24 years old and already occupies a 40-man roster spot. Texas is wrapping up a lost season and will go into the offseason with a lot questions about the rotation.

Max Scherzer and Andrew Heaney will be free agents. It’s likely that Nathan Eovaldi is also headed to the market. Eovaldi needs to pitch 23 more innings to unlock a $20MM player option. Even if he hits the vesting threshold, he could decline the option in search of another multi-year free agent deal.

That’d leave Texas with a rotation core of Jacob deGrom, Tyler Mahle and Jon Gray. deGrom and Mahle could be on innings limits after returning from 2023 Tommy John procedures. Gray has been on the injured list twice this year due to groin strains. He has a 4.32 ERA over 98 innings. Dane Dunning has an ERA north of 5.00 and has been in and out of the rotation. Cody Bradford has been limited to nine appearances this year by a rib fracture. Scherzer, Mahle and deGrom are all currently on the injured list.

GM Chris Young and his staff will undoubtedly add to the group over the winter (likely with at least two outside pickups). They’ll need some kind of emergence from their younger starting pitchers to supplement that expensive veteran group. That has not been a strength for the organization.

Former notable prospects Cole Winn and Owen White remain on the 40-man roster. Neither has become a key contributor. Winn posted an ERA above 7.00 in Triple-A last season and has moved fully to relief. As Grant observes, the Rangers also converted the 25-year-old White to the bullpen in Triple-A this month. White has had better results since moving to relief but still carries a 5.51 ERA over 94 2/3 total frames.

It’s not out of the question that Leiter’s command could eventually push him to the ’pen as well. That’s not currently on the table, though, and the Rangers will give him his first real opportunity against MLB opposition next month. That probably won’t be enough runway to guarantee a spot in the Opening Day starting five, but a strong showing could give him a chance to battle for a rotation job in Spring Training.

Leiter’s college teammate Kumar Rocker has returned from Tommy John surgery and has begun mowing down upper minors hitters. The #3 overall pick of the 2022 draft fired 19 2/3 innings of one-run ball in five Double-A appearances. He tossed five scoreless innings with 10 strikeouts in his Triple-A debut last night. Rocker presumably won’t be in line for a big league call this year, as doing so would require carrying him on the 40-man roster all offseason. He could put himself on the radar for a promotion early in the ’25 campaign if he keeps on anything close to his current trajectory.

Rangers Place Robbie Grossman, Travis Jankowski On Outright Waivers

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The Rangers have placed outfielders Robbie Grossman and Travis Jankowski on outright waivers, reports ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel. Both are free agents at season’s end. Grossman and Jankowski can continue to play for Texas while on waivers, as neither was designated for assignment prior to his placement. However, outright waivers are irrevocable, so if either player is claimed when the 48-hour waiver period expires on Saturday, he’ll head straight to his new club with that team taking on the remainder of his contract.

In Grossman’s case, that’s the final 30 days of his prorated $1.5MM base salary — about $242K overall. For Jankowski, who’s on a $1.7MM base, the price would jump to about $274K. Either player would be postseason-eligible for a new team if claimed. If either goes unclaimed, he can remain with the Rangers and does not need to be removed from the 40-man roster. Waiver priority is determined based on the reverse order of MLB-wide standings and — unlike the now-defunct August trade waiver system — is not league-specific.

Grossman, 34, started the season with the White Sox but was traded to Texas just a few weeks into the year. He’s slashed a combined .225/.333/.318 between the two teams — production that’s about 9% below league-average, by measure of wRC+. That looks at his overall production this season, however, and his production is skewed by sub-par output against right-handed pitching. Against lefties, the switch-hitting Grossman has been has typically productive self: .279/.388/.430 (136 wRC+) in 103 plate appearances.

Grossman has made a career out of tormenting left-handed pitchers. He’s usually more productive against righties than he has been this season, but a strong split against lefties has been a hallmark throughout his career. Dating back to his 2013 MLB debut, Grossman’s ultra-patient approach has resulted in a .282/.382/.427 batting line versus lefties, with the switch-hitter drawing a free pass in nearly 14% of his plate appearances from the right side of the dish. A playoff contender seeking a boost against left-handed pitching could definitely have interest in Grossman’s track record and 2024 production against lefties — and the minimal acquisition cost can’t hurt his chances of being claimed, either.

No team is going to claim the 33-year-old Jankowski for his bat. He’s turned in a bleak .195/.257/.234 batting line in 167 plate appearances, rendering him as one of the league’s least productive players at the plate. That said, Jankowski is an above-average defender across all three outfield spots who ranks in the 84th percentile of MLB players in terms of sprint speed.

Jankowski hasn’t been productive at the plate this season, but he’s only a year removed from a decent showing. He hit .263/.357/.332 for the Rangers’ World Series-winning club last year — including a solid .269/.365/.333 slash against right-handed pitching. Jankowski is a typical speed-and-defense focused fourth outfielder who can provide a late-game defensive replacement and/or pinch-running weapon off the bench for a new club. He’s 8-for-9 in stolen base attempts this season and went 19-for-20 in 2023.

Max Scherzer Scratched From Planned Rehab Start

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Rangers right-hander Max Scherzer was scheduled to make a rehab outing for Double-A Frisco tonight but that will no longer happen. Per Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News, the veteran has been scratched from that start, with the club providing little information about his current status.

It’s been a challenging season for Scherzer, who has never really dealt with a significant injury before. Apart from his 2008 debut and the shortened 2020 season, he has never thrown less than 145 1/3 innings in a major league season. He logged at least 170 frames in each full season from 2009 to 2021.

But he is certainly going to fall short of that range this year. He has thrown 39 1/3 innings in the majors and he’s running out of time to add to that total. He underwent back surgery in the offseason and it was initially hoped that he could be back at some point in May, but that didn’t come to pass.

He began a rehab assignment in late April but that was halted after just one outing due to some soreness in his right thumb. Grant relayed on May 11 that Scherzer was dealing with a nerve issue running down his arm and had received a cortisone injection. Grant provided an update in a May 15 column, noting that Scherzer had received a Botox injection, a treatment for neurogenic thoracic outlet syndrome but also other nerve pain. In a May 28 column, Grant noted that neurogenic TOS normally features pain going from the shoulder to the finger but Scherzer’s case was the opposite, with pain going up his arm from his thumb. In another update on May 31, Grant again mentioned neurogenic TOS but noted that Scherzer has maintained the issue is not TOS.

Scherzer was eventually able to get healthy enough to get on the mound. He made two more rehab starts in June and was reinstated from the injured list that month. He made eight starts at the big league level, throwing the aforementioned 39 1/3 innings, allowing 3.89 earned runs per nine. But in the first week of August, he landed back on the IL due to some right shoulder fatigue. As mentioned, he was planned to start a rehab assignment tonight but that won’t happen now.

It’s undoubtedly a frustrating experience for Scherzer with the constant starting and stopping this year, but there’s little reason for the club to push him at this point if he’s not 100%. The club is 59-69 and 10.5 games back of the Astros in the West. Both the Playoff Odds at FanGraphs and the PECOTA Standings at Baseball Prospectus put their chances of cracking the postseason at less than a half of a percentage point.

With their season more or less on life support, the club and Scherzer can focus on his long-term health. As of last week, the 40-year-old said he was planning to pitch again in 2025. He won’t take the hill tonight and further developments will undoubtedly be forthcoming in the next few weeks.

Scherzer is scheduled to hit free agency at season’s end and is health status will likely play a key role in how the winter plays out for him. Plenty of clubs would be interested in him based on his amazing track record but the mention of neurogenic TOS will undoubtedly raise some flags. Last summer, Jesse Dougherty of The Washington Post looked at the two different kinds of TOS and why the results are often so divergent. Merrill Kelly once had venous TOS but was able to recover and has pitch at a high level for years afterwards. Whereas neurogenic TOS is often more debilitating, with pitchers like Stephen Strasburg significantly hampered by the condition.

Again, Scherzer has insisted he is not dealing with neurogenic TOS, though he does have a nerve issue of some kind. Whatever is ailing him, it’s been a significant roadblock this year. He will undoubtedly be exploring all avenues with medical experts in the coming weeks to find a path forward towards his goal of pitching next year. As of today, he has a 3.16 ERA in almost 3,000 career innings pitched and is tenth on the all-time strikeout list.

MLBTR Podcast: Who Could Get Waived, Potential Rule Changes, Austin Riley, And Hector Neris

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • Will any players be placed on waivers before September 1 who could help? (35:15)
  • How much longer do the Tigers stick with Javier Báez and what holes will they be looking to fill in the offseason? (41:00)
  • If Pete Alonso walks in free agency, what will the Mets do at first base next year? (49:40)

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Rangers To Place Tyler Mahle On Injured List

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Rangers manager Bruce Bochy informed the club’s beat today that right-hander Tyler Mahle is going to be placed on the 15-day injured list with some shoulder stiffness. Righty Jon Gray will be reinstated from his own IL stint in a corresponding move. Kennedi Landry of MLB.com was among those who relayed the news on X.

Mahle, now 29, underwent Tommy John surgery last summer just before hitting free agency for the first time in his career. The Rangers then signed him to a two-year, $22MM deal, knowing that they wouldn’t be able to count on him to join the club until some point in the middle of the 2024 season at the earliest. He was on the IL until two weeks ago and has since made three starts. He went five innings in the first of those, then four and two thirds, followed by just three innings in Sunday’s game.

It’s unclear if the shoulder was bothering him in his last outing or has been nagging at him since. While he was removed after just three innings, he also allowed four earned runs on six hits while recording just one strikeout, so his removal might simply have been about his performance rather than his health.

Shoulder issues have been a problem for him before, as he only made six starts after July 2 in the 2022 season due to a strain and some inflammation. Between those shoulder issues and his recent Tommy John layoff, it’s been three straight seasons of having a truncated workload.

The Rangers have fallen back in the standings lately and are now 11 games back of the Astros in the West and 12.5 games back of a Wild Card spot. Both the Playoff Odds at FanGraphs and the PECOTA Standings at Baseball Prospectus give them just a 0.4% chance of cracking the postseason at this point.

With the club’s season on the ropes, they can make their decisions based on optimizing results next year. Ideally, Mahle would be building up his workload since he hasn’t pitched much in recent years, but pitching through an injury would run the risk of aggravating a shoulder that has given him problems in the past, so it seems the club has decided a breather is the best decision for now. Assuming the issue isn’t major, perhaps he can return for the final few weeks and log some innings in September.

Going forward, the club’s rotation could be facing notable changes. Jacob deGrom is starting a rehab assignment this week and Max Scherzer will be as well, per Landry on X. When those two come back, they will likely slot into the rotation with Gray, Nathan Eovaldi and Andrew Heaney, with Cody Bradford and Dane Dunning also in the mix and perhaps Mahle coming back down the line.

Looking ahead to next year, Scherzer and Heaney are impending free agents with Eovaldi perhaps heading to the open market along with them. Eovaldi’s contract has a conditional $20MM player option that he unlocks if he totals 300 innings pitched over 2023 and 2024 or finishes in the top five in Cy Young voting this year. Even if he unlocks that option, which is possible since he’s at 271 innings since the start of last year, he might turn it down and elect free agency since he’s having a strong season and could look for a bigger guarantee in free agency.

Without those three, the Texas rotation for 2025 projects to include deGrom, Mahle and Gray. The latter two, as mentioned, are coming off lengthy Tommy John rehabs and could have workload concerns next year. Bradford has also missed significant time this year, due to a low back strain, and only has 14 big league starts to his name. Dunning has often been in the club’s swingman/sixth starter role, moving between the bullpen and rotation as needed. Prospects Jack Leiter and Owen White are on the 40-man roster but both have ongoing control issues.

The Rangers are still the reigning World Series champions for a few more months but the title defense has obviously not been what they had in mind. Perhaps that will lead them to shake up their rotation mix in the offseason, as there’s plenty of uncertainty in next year’s group.

Jacob deGrom To Begin Rehab Assignment

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Rangers right-hander Jacob deGrom is set to begin a rehab assignment this week. The righty himself tells Jeff Wilson of Rangers Today (X link) that he’ll likely start for Double-A Frisco on Thursday. Manager Bruce Bochy says that it will either be Thursday or Friday, which will be the first of four rehab outings, per Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News on X. If all goes according to plan, the righty could be back in the majors by September 10.

deGrom underwent Tommy John surgery in June of last year and is now about 14 months removed from that procedure. Once upon a time, it seemed as though deGrom would be part of a trio of heroes riding in to help the Rangers in the second half of 2024. Tyler Mahle also underwent Tommy John surgery last year and was slated for a midseason return, while Max Scherzer opened the season on the IL after undergoing offseason back surgery.

The 2023 World Series champions hoped that they could stay afloat through the first half of 2024 with a strong offense and a rotation mix consisting of Nathan Eovaldi, Jon Gray, Andrew Heaney, Michael Lorenzen, Cody Bradford, Dane Dunning and others. Ideally, they would have gotten stronger throughout the year and made a strong push in defending their title.

It hasn’t exactly played out that way, unfortunately. The team’s hitters have slashed a collective .239/.308/.381 for a 94 wRC+, putting them ahead of just seven teams in the majors. On top of that, the pitching has been a challenging carousel for the club all year. Due to various ailments, no one on the pitching staff has reached 130 innings pitched yet this year, while Eovaldi and Heaney are the only guys currently on the team with more than 100 frames. Lorenzen was traded to the Royals at the deadline and both Gray and Scherzer are currently on the IL.

The combination of injuries and some struggles around the roster have bumped the Rangers towards the back of the American League playoff race. They are 11 games back of the Astros in the West and then 12.5 games out of a Wild Card spot. The Playoff Odds at FanGraphs give them just a 0.2% chance of cracking the postseason while the PECOTA Standings at Baseball Prospectus are slightly more bullish at 0.8%.

At this point, the club is likely viewing deGrom’s return less as a spark plug for a 2024 postseason push and more about getting a few starts under his belt in preparation for the 2025 campaign. He and the Rangers signed a five-year, $185MM deal heading into 2023, though he’s only been able to make six starts on that deal so far, due to his aforementioned surgery.

The club managed to win the World Series last year even without him, but there’s still three years left on that deal, making him a key part of their next chapter. The righty has been one of the better pitchers in the world over the past decade, though the injuries have been an issue in recent years.

From 2014 to the present, he has a 2.53 earned run average in 1,356 1/3 innings pitched, striking out 31% of batters faced while only walking 5.8%. Among pitchers with at least 700 innings in that time, only Clayton Kershaw has a lower ERA while only Scherzer and Chris Sale topped deGrom in terms of strikeout rate.

In recent years, deGrom has provided even higher quality but with less quantity. He topped 200 innings from 2017 to 2019 but hasn’t even hit 100 since. The 2020 season was shortened to just 60 games by the pandemic and then deGrom missed time in the two subsequent seasons due to right side tightness, right forearm tightness and a stress reaction on his right scapula.

From 2020 to the present, he has tossed 254 2/3 innings with a 2.12 ERA and incredible 42% strikeout rate. That punchout rate is tops among all pitchers with at least 250 innings in that stretch, with Spencer Strider a distant second at 36.9%, while only reliever Emmanuel Clase bests deGrom in the ERA department.

At this point, it’s anyone’s guess what kind of form deGrom will be in when he returns. He is now 36 years old and coming off a lengthy injury absence. He also hasn’t been able to make more than 15 starts in a season since 2019.

The Rangers are set to lose both Scherzer and Heaney to free agency in a couple of months. Eovaldi could be joining them, as his deal has a conditional $20MM player option that he unlocks if he totals 300 innings pitched over 2023 and 2024 or finishes in the top five in Cy Young voting this year. Even if he unlocks that option, he might turn it down and head to the open market since he’s having a strong season and could secure a bigger guarantee over a longer deal in free agency.

If Eovaldi does depart, then the 2025 Ranger rotation on paper is deGrom, Gray, Mahle, Dunning and Bradford, with both Gray and Mahle slated for free agency after next year. Jack Leiter and Owen White are each on the 40-man roster but both have dealt with control problems.

Taken all together, deGrom’s form in the coming years figures to be a significant factor for the Rangers, considering how much they have invested in him and that there’s not a lot of long-term certainty in the rotation picture.

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