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Heyman’s Latest: Melancon, Closers, Nathan, Astros, Iwakuma

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As we continue to march through a busy day in the rumor mill, here’s the latest from Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com:

  • Pirates closer Mark Melancon has been made available, per Heyman. Pittsburgh seems interested in the possibility of cashing him in and re-deploying an arbitration salary that MLBTR projects to land at a cool $10MM. Melancon joins a loaded trade market that is fronted by appealing potential chips such as Aroldis Chapman (Reds) and Craig Kimbrel (Padres) and which could also include Andrew Miller of the Yankees.
  • And that’s not all, as Shawn Tolleson of the Rangers has drawn interest, with Texas said to be willing to listen but not planning to shop the righty. The Phillies seem willing to part with Ken Giles at the right price. Then, of course, there are Jonathan Papelbon and Drew Storen of the Nationals, either of whom could theoretically be dealt.
  • With teams such as the Yankees and Nationals potentially factoring as both buyers and sellers of late-inning arms, says Heyman, it could end up being a “wild closer’s market.” There are a host of teams with interest in Chapman and Kimbrel. The former is said to be “eminently available” from the Reds, while the latter may not be dealt by the Padres, who Heyman says will not enter a rebuilding phase. As for Miller, New York GM Brian Cashman’s openness to creativity doesn’t mean a deal is likely, with Heyman suggesting a significant player — he suggests the involvement of Stephen Strasburg — would be necessary to pry Miller loose.
  • While he’s only likely to get a make-good deal at this point, Joe Nathan is working his way back and could be ready to throw by May of 2016, Heyman writes. The Tigers would be glad to bring back the soon-to-be 41-year-old on a minor league pact, per the report.
  • While the Astros say they don’t need to do much beside adding left-handed arms to the pen, Heyman says that the club does have a shopping list. If Colby Rasmus departs, a left fielder could be added, while additional relief arms, a starter, and an addition at first base might also be pursued.
  • Heyman also provides a few notes on some players of interest. Free agent second baseman Howie Kendrick is looking for four years. The Pirates are taking offers on first baseman (and DH candidate) Pedro Alvarez. And reliever Steve Cishek will soon become a free agent, as the Cardinals do not intend to tender him a contract.
  • The Mariners still have some work to do after striking an early trade, Heyman writes, with a center fielder and starting pitcher among the needs. Adding to the pen and bolstering the catching corps will also be among the priorities of GM Jerry Dipoto and his staff. Seattle will try to solve its rotation needs by retaining Hisashi Iwakuma, as has widely been reported, with Heyman adding that the club will try to do so with a two-year offer.

AL Notes: Chris Young, Royals, Forsythe, Profar, Red Sox

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The Red Sox are among the team’s expressing early interest in free agent outfielder Chris Young, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports on Twitter. It remains to be seen what kind of fit he’d have in Boston, which features two right-handed bats in Mookie Betts and Rusney Castillo in the outfield. Presumably, Young would be pursued as a possible complimentary piece to the left-handed-hitting Jackie Bradley Jr. Of course, it’s still early, and Nightengale also mentions that several other clubs have already been in contact with Young, who had a nice 2015 season for the Yankees (.252/.320/.453 with 14 home runs in 356 plate appearances).

  • That’s not the only player by that name, of course, and the other Chris Young has also crafted an interesting free agent case for himself with a strong platform campaign. The Royals do have interest in bringing Young back, Andy McCullough of the Kansas City Star tweets, but only if his asking price drops. After drawing only marginal interest on the market the last two winters, Young is seeking “pay commensurate to his performance,” per McCullough. (The 36-year-old has contributed 288 1/3 innings of 3.40 ERA pitching over the past two seasons, which was obviously quite valuable.)
  • The Royals are giving indications that they see a reunion with Ben Zobrist as more likely than the re-signing of Alex Gordon or Johnny Cueto, ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick reports (Twitter links). Zobrist not only makes for a nice fit, given his ability to play second or the corner outfield, but will presumably end up with a contract of a shorter duration than the other two players.
  • Another player coming off of a big season is Rays infielder Logan Forsythe, who broke out with a .281/.359/.444 slash line. Tampa Bay and the 28-year-old have mutual interest in discussing an extension of some kind, according to SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo. Forsythe has two years of control remaining, and MLBTR projects him to earn $3.3MM for the coming season. Given that the five-year veteran has never come close to his 2015 production in prior seasons, and bearing in mind the organization’s scant payroll, the likeliest scenario may be a deal that guarantees only two or three seasons while leaving the team with an option or two at the back end.
  • The Yankees are among the team’s that would have interest in Rangers infielder Jurickson Profar if he’s made available, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports. But teams looking for a buy-low opportunity are likely barking up the wrong tree, per the report. “We are not looking to trade him,” said Rangers GM Jon Daniels. “We held onto him this long. We are pretty optimistic his shoulder is fit. The mindset is to wait and see where he is. We believe he will get back to his value, which was one of the best young players out there.”
  • Turning back to the Red Sox, the club not only has some acquisition work to do this winter, but will surely at least consider the idea of extensions, with Betts and Xander Bogaerts seemingly representing the two most likely targets. Jen McCaffrey of MassLive.com discusses that possibility, noting that new president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has reached significant extensions in the past. While he declined to discuss those two players’ situations, he did talk about his general approach. “I don’t really have any specific rule on it other than that you want to make sure you feel comfortable that when you give it to the player that you feel their abilities merit it, that you’re going to get the performance,” said Dombrowski. “It’s an exchange of they’re getting a long-term contract and you’re getting some end of it back yourself. Maybe you’re getting some free agency type years. But I don’t really have any set formula when to do that and I think every player is different.”

AL West Notes: Astros Payroll, Rasmus, Profar, Acta

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Astros owner Jim Crane said today that the organization is prepared to add significant payroll space for GM Jeff Luhnow to work with, as MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart reports on Twitter. “We’ve got quite a bit of room if we need it,” he said. Houston had dramatically slashed its spending as part of its complete overhaul, but moved back over $70MM in Opening Day payroll last year, added salary via mid-season trades, and seems prepared for yet greater increases now that the club’s contention window has been thrown open. Then again, Luhnow himself has indicated that he does not see many areas of significant need entering the winter.

Here’s more from Houston and the rest of the AL West:

  • Luhnow says that the Astros made a qualifying offer to outfielder Colby Rasmus in hopes that he’d accept it, Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle reports on Twitter. “We obviously want to keep Colby,” he said. “So that’s the outcome that we’re hoping for.” That’s certainly interesting to hear, as it certainly would’ve been easy enough for Luhnow to answer the question diplomatically without stating so clearly that he has real interest in a reunion. (In many instances, of course, the qualifying offer is used simply as a tool to open the door to draft compensation.) Rasmus looks like a useful fit for Houston, but it had been presumed that the club would look elsewhere given the rising cost of the 29-year-old, especially after adding Carlos Gomez at the trade deadline. It’s not yet clear whether Rasmus will seriously entertain the offer, or whether the team will pursue Rasmus if he rejects it, but at a minimum it seems that the addition of a left-handed outfield bat of some kind would be of interest. Preston Tucker had a solid rookie effort last year, and might be the leading in-house option to take that role if Rasmus is not retained.
  • Rangers GM Jon Daniels says that Jurickson Profar is expected to enter spring playing shortstop exclusively, as Stefan Stevenson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram reports. Though Profar has been serving as a DH in the Arizona Fall League, leaving it somewhat unclear what the future might hold as he works his way back from serious shoulder issues, Daniels struck an optimistic tone. Saying that Profar is “close to kind of having this thing in the rearview mirror,” the GM expressed confidence in the 22-year-old’s ability to return to full strength while also adding that the organization will continue to tread carefully in ramping up his activities (particularly in the field). The club will keep an open mind about Profar’s use next year, but he seems likely to begin the season at Triple-A.
  • The Mariners have hired former big league manager Manny Acta as their third base coach, Buster Olney of ESPN.com reports on Twitter. Acta ran the Indians and Nationals dugouts previously and has more recently served as an ESPN analyst.

Latest On Byung-ho Park

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8:52am: Yahoo’s Jeff Passan tweets that the White Sox aren’t the winner, either. That leaves the Brewers and Twins in addition to the Cubs and Reds, though the latter duo doesn’t have much of a spot for Park to play (unless Cincinnati feels he can handle left field). Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN reported last week that the Twins have scouted Park quite a bit, though the Brewers seem to be a better fit from a roster standpoint, in my eyes.

8:37am: Heyman also eliminates the Rockies and the Phillies from the mix (via Twitter). That leaves the Brewers, Reds, Cubs, White Sox and Twins as the remaining options. As I noted before, the presence of Joey Votto in Cincinnati and Anthony Rizzo on the Cubs’ roster makes that pair of NL teams seem like long shots, to say the least. The White Sox and Twins each have long-term first base options in Jose Abreu and Joe Mauer, though Park could certainly split time at first and DH with either player.

8:22am: The Astros didn’t submit the winning bid for Park, either, tweets Jon Heyman of CBS Sports.

NOV. 9, 7:29am: We’re down to seven possibilities on the mystery team for Park, as ESPN’s Buster Olney (Twitter link) and the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review’s Rob Biertempfel (Twitter link) report that the Pirates have not won the bidding.

There have been reports eliminating all but seven teams from the Park bidding, leaving the Phillies, Brewers, Reds, Cubs, White Sox, Twins and Astros as possibilities. And while the Reds and Cubs are technically possibilities, it’d be surprising to see either NL club post the winning bid on a first baseman, given the stars that each has entrenched at that position. The Rockies haven’t been completely ruled out, though the report below seems to indicate they’re more of a long shot than anything else at this point.

Alan Nero, Park’s agent at Octagon, tells Travis Sawchik of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review that even he does not yet know which club won the bidding, adding that both league offices were closed over the weekend (Twitter link).

NOV. 8, 9:51pm: The winning bid wasn’t posted by the Royals or Braves, Yahoo Sports’ Jeff Passan reports (Twitter links).  “It’s safe to assume” the Rays didn’t have the winning bid either, the Tampa Bay Times’ Marc Topkin tweets.

9:10pm: The Athletics and Marlins also didn’t have the top bid, Heyman tweets.

7:24pm: The Mariners and Diamondbacks didn’t place bids on Park, as per tweets from CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman and Zach Buchanan of AZCentral.com.  Also, the Giants can be eliminated from contention, according to Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle.  The Rockies might also be out, as MLB.com’s Thomas Harding doesn’t “think anything is happening there.”

2:39pm: Italian artist Michelangelo is famously misquoted as saying that he sculpted the historic David statue by chipping away the parts that did not look like David.  Perhaps that is how we will whittle down the field of suitors for first baseman Byung-Ho Park until we unravel the mystery team that submitted the winning bid to negotiate with the Korean star.  Failing that, we might just have to wait until Monday, when the announcement is formally made.

On Friday, Korea’s Nexen Heroes accepted a $12.85MM bid on the rights to negotiate a big league contract with Park.  As of today, we still don’t know which MLB club won the posting process, but one team out there now has a thirty day window with which to hammer out a deal with one of the winter’s most intriguing and mysterious free agents.

The Blue Jays are not the winning team, according to Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com (on Twitter), and the winning bid was not submitted by the Mets, Yankees, Dodgers, or Angels, either (link),  The Cardinals, who are looking at various first base options, tendered an unsuccessful bid for the 29-year-old, according to Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.  James Wagner of the Washington Post (on Twitter) heard that the Nats did not have interest.  Late last week, the Indians, Tigers, Rangers, Orioles, Padres, and Red Sox were also crossed off the list by various reporters.

If Park and his new club do not reach agreement on a contract, Nexen will lose out on the posting fee and the winning team will have to move on to a Plan B at first base.  The reported $12.85MM fell shy of the $25MM+ posting amount commanded by lefty Hyun-Jin Ryu, but it easily tops what the Pirates paid Nexen last year (~$5MM) for the rights to reach a deal with infielder Jung-Ho Kang. After the team-to-team transfer was arrived at, Kang and the Bucs agreed to a four-year, $11MM guarantee.

In the recently-released list of MLBTR’s top fifty free agents, Tim Dierkes predicted that Park would command a $10MM posting fee and a five-year, $40MM contract from the winning team. The first part of that was close, but it remains to be seen how negotiations will proceed.

West Notes: Rangers, Padres, Rockies, Eppler

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The Rangers made their biggest additions at the trade deadline, writes Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News. The principle additions were ace Cole Hamels along with relievers Jake Diekman and Sam Dyson. Between Hamels’ contract and raises to existing personnel, the Rangers won’t have budget to compete for top free agents. Instead, they’ll pursue more cost effective options. Possible reunions with Yovani Gallardo, Colby Lewis, and Mike Napoli represent a few possible fits. Additional bullpen depth is also seen as a need.

Here’s more from the western divisions:

  • Padres GM A.J. Preller “remains an enigma,” writes Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union Tribune. Payroll is expected to range anywhere from slightly below last season’s $108MM to $120MM. That doesn’t give Preller any room for a splashy free agent signing. The club does have to work on building a better balanced product. A real shortstop – not Will Middlebrooks or Jedd Gyorko – should be a priority. The club probably also needs to replace Ian Kennedy and add another depth piece to the rotation. James Shields, Craig Kimbrel, Joaquin Benoit, and Derek Norris are the most likely veterans to be traded.
  • History says the Rockies won’t make a splash either, writes Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post. Trade interest in outfielder Carlos Gonzalez could affect the team’s plans. If the club is able to trade the two-years and $37MM remaining on his deal, they could potential bid for a slugger like Chris Davis. Despite terrible performance out of the rotation, they probably won’t try to woo free agent pitching.
  • Angels GM Billy Eppler is a blend of the old and new schools, writes Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register. For those interested, the profile of Eppler details his rise from intern to one of the top GM prospects in the game. The Angels faithful will hope his blend of scouting chops with an analytical instinct will result in a productive offseason for the club. His first test – the GM Meetings – begins on Monday.

Outrighted: Ruggiano, Heisey, Wilson, Perez, Beliveau, Elmore, Perez, Sadler, Cumpton

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Teams are continuing to prune their 40-man rosters as decisions arise, and there were a number of outrights over the last day or two. We’ll cover them all here:

  • The Dodgers outrighted both Justin Ruggiano and Chris Heisey, with both outfielders electing free agency after clearing waivers, according to Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times (Twitter links). Ruggiano and Heisey were both added very late in the season — in the latter’s case, re-acquired — and saw limited action overall. It’s worth noting, though, that Ruggiano turned things on after he was demoted early on by the Mariners, raking at Triple-A and even slashing a cool .291/.350/.618 in his sixty plate appearances in Los Angeles. The 33-year-old will be an interesting bench target for teams looking to add a threat against southpaws.
  • Catcher Bobby Wilson refused an assignment with the Rangers after clearing outright waivers, as executive VP of communications John Blake announced on Twitter. The 32-year-old spent time with both the Rays and Rangers last year, continuing to serve as a fill-in backstop who does not contribute much at the plate.
  • Likewise, outfielder Juan Perez is headed for free agency after he was outrighted by the Giants, John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle reports on Twitter. Perez, 28, has received 246 total plate appearances over the last three years in San Francisco, compiling a meager .224/.267/.316 batting line. He’s spent most of his time in recent years at the Triple-A level.
  • Lefty Jeff Beliveau and infielder Jake Elmore have elected free agency after losing their 40-man spots with the Rays, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports on Twitter. Beliveau impressed in 2014, striking out 28 batters and allowing just seven earned runs in 24 frames, but missed most of 2015 after undergoing shoulder surgery. The 28-year-old Elmore, meanwhile, managed to rack up a career-high 158 plate appearances last year in Tampa Bay, but he slashed just .206/.263/.284.
  • Also hitting the open market is infielder Hernan Perez, who the Brewers outrighted, per a club announcement. He’ll qualify as a minor league free agent. The 24-year-old got a 90-game audition in Milwaukee after being claimed from the Tigers, but slashed .270/.281/.365 and apparently did not force his way into the organization’s plans.
  • Finally, injured righties Casey Sadler and Brandon Cumpton have lost their 40-man spots with the Pirates, as Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette tweets. Neither has spent a significant amount of time in the big leagues, though Sadler has debuted and Cumpton did throw just over 100 frames over 2013-14. Both will factor as rotation and pen depth if and when they are ready to return from their respective arm surgeries.

Rangers Make Qualifying Offer To Yovani Gallardo

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They waited until the last minute to pull the trigger, but the Rangers have officially announced that the club made a qualifying offer to righty Yovani Gallardo. Ultimately, GM Jon Daniels called it a “fairly easy” decision to make the one-year, $15.8MM offer.

The veteran hurler was acquired last winter from the Brewers in exchange for a trio of young players: infielder Luis Sardinas and righties Corey Knebel and Marcos Diplan. He delivered a solid season to Texas at a reasonable $14MM salary ($4MM of which was covered by Milwaukee).

Gallardo is hardly an overwhelming pitcher. His heater clocks in at a below-average velocity, and last year he generated less than six strikeouts per nine this season (while walking more than three batters per regulation game).

But he has provided a lot of solid innings, and that has plenty of value in today’s market. The 29-year-old is not exactly a sure thing to go over 200 frames annually — a feat that he’s accomplished twice, in 2011-12 — but he has made thirty or more starts in each of the last seven seasons.

While Gallardo has rarely been dominant, he does carry a lifetime 3.66 ERA. And he’s posted consecutive earned run averages of 3.51 and 3.42 over the last two seasons. ERA estimators have never quite supported those results — this year, for instance, he carried a 4.59 SIERA — but he’d still be a useful piece with some regression baked into expectations.

AL West Notes: Iwakuma, Mariners, Freese, Gallardo

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The Mariners are leaning toward a qualifying offer for right-hander Hisashi Iwakuma, writes MLB.com’s Greg Johns, but no final decision has been made. There’s mutual interest between the Mariners and the 34-year-old Iwakuma, but Johns notes that Seattle must decide if it wants to risk Iwakuma accepting the $15.8MM one-year offer, which would add a significant commitment to a payroll that has already guaranteed $77MM worth of 2015 salary to five players. From my vantage point, Iwakuma can easily double the amount of the qualifying offer on the open market this winter and could max out on a three-year deal in the $39-45MM range, making a QO a reasonable decision. Even if Iwakuma’s market collapses a bit and he has to take a two-year pact, I’d imagine annual salaries in the $13-15MM range would still be in play.

Here’s more from the AL West…

  • ESPN’s Buster Olney hears that Mariners’ early offseason focus is on improving the club’s on-base percentage (Twitter link). Most of general manager Jerry Dipoto’s activity to address that deficiency will come via trade as opposed to free agency, Olney adds. That lines up with an Inbox column from Johns, in which he says he doesn’t foresee Dipoto making a big free agent splash. Rather, his expectation is that Dipoto will seek to add a veteran catcher, bullpen help, a center fielder and a rotation option primarily by being creative on the trade market.
  • Regarding the Mariners and whether or not they’ll dive into free agency, I’ll add this: Seattle has the top unprotected pick in next year’s draft at No. 11, so it’d be pretty surprising to see them sign any player who rejects a qualifying offer. One free agent target that strikes me as a nice fit in Seattle would be Denard Span, assuming he doesn’t receive a QO.
  • Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register examines whether or not the Angels will make a qualifying offer to David Freese. As Fletcher notes, Freese looks to be the lone regular on the free agent market at this time — unless some teams consider Daniel Murphy an option there — which could line him up for something like $30MM over three years. Offering Freese about $16MM is risky for the Halos, who are only about $26MM under the luxury tax threshold by Fletcher’s calculations. If the Angels make the offer, they’ll do so with the hope that Freese rejects. According to Fletcher, the front office is currently mulling the possibility, which is one that MLBTR’s Jeff Todd and I discussed at length on last week’s QO-themed edition of the MLBTR Podcast.
  • Sticking with the qualifying offer theme that has been largely present throughout this post, Jeff Wilsont of the Forst Worth Star-Telegram spoke to Yovani Gallardo’s agent, Bobby Witt, about the possibility of the Rangers extending a qualifying offer to his client. “Deep down, I think they’re going to do it,” said Witt. “That’s the smart play by the Rangers.” Wilson examines the possibility of Gallardo being the first player to accept a qualifying offer, which, as Wilson points out, would mean that Gallardo receives a nice one-year deal to pitch in his home town and hit the open market in a move favorable position on next year’s thin crop of pitchers.

Coaching Notes: Maddux, Yankees, Gardenhire, Angels

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The Nationals announced yesterday that they’ve hired recently departed Rangers pitching coach Mike Maddux to fill the same role in their organization under new manager Dusty Baker. (MLB.com’s Bill Ladson first tweeted that the hire was likely.) In luring Maddux to D.C., the Nationals landed one of the game’s more respected coaches of any discipline, and they paid accordingly. Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports that Maddux will become the highest-paid pitching coach in baseball with the Nationals, adding that the team’s pursuit of Maddux began as soon as the Rangers provided him the opportunity to listen to offers from other teams. Washington’s pursuit lasted more than two weeks, and Nightengale hears that the Nationals’ plan was to hire Maddux as pitching coach regardless of who was eventually named manager.

A few more coaching notes from around the league…

  • The Yankees announced this week that 2015 assistant hitting coach Alan Cockrell has been promoted to hitting coach. Cockrell has previously served as Mariners’ hitting coach and was also the Rockies’ hitting coach during their 2007 World Series run. Meanwhile, recently retired Marcus Thames, who had a productive 2010 season as a part-time outfielder for the Yankees, has been named assistant hitting coach. Thames, still just 38, has spent the past three seasons as a hitting coach with three different Yankees’ minor league affiliates (Tampa, Trenton and Scranton/Wilkes-Barre).
  • Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports that the Padres have offered the bench coach position to former Twins manager Ron Gardenhire, who finished runner up to Andy Green in the team’s managerial search. Multiple sources told Lin of the offer, he notes, while another source said the Padres also offered the position to Dodgers bench coach Tim Wallach. All of this seems to indicate that current bench coach Dave Roberts could indeed depart in 2016, though Lin hears that the organization isn’t shutting the door on keeping Roberts. Rather, they’d assign him a new coaching position if he were to return. Roberts has been interviewing for managerial gigs and is believed to be the favorite to land the Dodgers’ managerial position at this time. Gardenhire, for his part, was diplomatic and wouldn’t confirm the offer in a recent MLB Network Radio appearance, but he spoke highly of GM A.J. Preller (links to Twitter). “A.J. is a brilliant young man,” said Gardenhire. “He’s pretty cool, a baseball junkie, loves to go out and scout. I like those things.” Gardenhire called the San Diego group as a whole “unbelievable.”
  • The Rangers will hire the Astros’ Doug Brocail as their new pitching coach, reports Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News. Brocail, a former big league right-hander, has served as Houston’s pitching coach previously and more recently been working in the team’s front office. As Grant notes, he’ll bring an analytic point of view to Texas, which will mesh with second-year manager Jeff Banister’s philosophies. Grant also reports that Triple-A pitching coach Brad Holman will be the Rangers’ bullpen coach in 2016.
  • The Angels announced this week that former D-Backs pitching coach Charles Nagy has been hired as the club’s new pitching coach. The 48-year-old Nagy enjoyed a 14-year Major League career spent almost entirely in Cleveland, and he served as a special assistant in the Cleveland front office this past season. He was Arizona’s pitching coach from 2011-13.
  • Additionally, the Angels announced that they’ve promoted Dave Hansen from assistant hitting coach to hitting coach and named Paul Sorrento assistant hitting coach. Each hitting instructor spent more than 10 years in the Majors. Hansen has previously been hitting coach for the Mariners and Dodgers, and he’s held his assistant role in Anaheim since 2014. Sorrento has been working in the Angels’ minor league system.
  • The Brewers this week formally announced the previously reported hires of Derek Johnson as pitching coach and Pat Murphy as bench coach. Murphy, of course, was the Padres’ interim manager from June through season’s end and has a close relationship with Milwaukee skipper Craig Counsell, whom he coached in college.

Poll: Should The Rangers Make Yovani Gallardo A Qualifying Offer

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If you aren’t associated with the Rangers in some way, chances are you haven’t wondered if starting pitcher Yovani Gallardo would merit a qualifying offer. Once a promising pitching prospect, Gallardo now features an unimpressive 90 mph fastball, 5.91 K/9, and 3.32 BB/9. In an age of power and pristine strikeout-to-walk ratios, Gallardo is easy to overlook. The Rangers reportedly plan to make the $15.8MM qualifying offer. But should they?

Statistically, there are a few angles to address. The 29-year-old has posted 2.0 to 2.6 fWAR in each of the last four seasons. That’s right around league average. It may feel off, but a relatively young, league average pitcher is generally worth around $12MM to $16MM a year on the free agent market. For example, Ervin Santana inked a four-year, $54MM deal with the Twins last offseason. Santana isn’t a perfect comp because he was coming off a 2.9 WAR season and has a flashier arsenal. He also had a much shakier track record.

Gallardo doesn’t eat innings like a top pitcher. In some ways, that’s both a positive and a negative. The Rangers were able to able to get the most out of him by removing him early. Only five of his 33 starts lasted more than six innings. Ten of his starts ran just five or fewer frames.

That usage put extra pressure on a shaky Rangers bullpen, but it also probably allowed him to post a solid 3.42 ERA in 184 innings. He had a 4.00 FIP based on his strikeout, walk, and home run rates. FanGraphs also tracks an ERA-based WAR called RA9-WAR. By that measure, Gallardo contributed over four wins to the Rangers’ season.

This brings to mind two important questions. Can Gallardo be easily managed by limiting the length of his starts? Evidence suggests he can, but the results are inconclusive. Additionally, how much does the extra strain on the bullpen detract from Gallardo’s value to his club? Obviously, that’s a very club dependent question. A team with a deep, talented bullpen might like using him in a short outing while clubs with less relief depth will prefer longer starts.

The evidence presented says that Gallardo is an unexciting, automatic qualifying offer candidate. However, there are signs that his stuff is on the decline. His strikeout rate has dropped in four straight seasons from 9.00 K/9 in 2012 to a middling 5.91 K/9 last year. His velocity is also down, and he may have experienced a lucky season with regard to his HR/FB rate. He continues to post a high ground ball rate, but he’s shown no signs of developing the excellent command that allows a Mark Buehrle or Brandon McCarthy to thrive.

Every year, a few players are hurt by the qualifying offer designation (refer back to Ervin Santana). Gallardo is exactly the kind of pitcher who could find it difficult to sign with a new club if he turns down the qualifying offer. He’s entering his age 30 season with a multi-year decline in stuff and peripherals. Despite health and consistent league average production, he doesn’t offer clubs much hope for upside.

Ultimately, I still think the worst case scenario for Gallardo is somewhere around a three-year, $28MM contract. Obviously, he could still sign for much more too. If the Rangers are happy to pay him $15.8MM on a one-year contract, then they have no cause for concern either way. But at some point, a player is going to bet on themselves by taking the higher AAV.

Should The Rangers Make Yovani Gallardo A Qualifying Offer
Yes 59.75% (2,397 votes)
No 40.25% (1,615 votes)
Total Votes: 4,012
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