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NL Central Notes: Schwarber, Park, Chapman

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ESPN Chicago’s Jesse Rogers dispels the notion that the Cubs will (or even that they should) shop Kyle Schwarber this offseason due to his perceived defensive shortcomings. While Schwarber undeniably struggled in the outfield this postseason, Rogers notes that no one was clamoring for such a move in the regular season. Schwarber logged about 300 innings in the outfield during the regular season, and while his inexperience showed, he wasn’t egregiously bad over that sample of games, either. It’s hardly a representative sample, but Rogers notes that extrapolating Schwarber’s Defensive Runs Saved mark to a full season would leave him about 10 to 13 runs below average, and his bat is capable of making up the difference. He also points out that with his work ethic, Schwarber has plenty of time to improve at a position that’s still pretty new to him. I’d agree that the notion of trading Schwarber — which I’ve heard from many fans — is an overreaction, to say the least. Over the course of a full season between the outfield corners and behind the plate, I’d expect Schwarber’s bat to make him a plenty valuable player, even if he doesn’t develop into an everyday catcher or above-average outfield defender.

Elsewhere in the NL Central…

  • Travis Sawchik of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review examines whether or not the Pirates should be bidders for Korean first baseman Byung-ho Park. Sawchik spoke to former MLB scout Daniel Kim, who said that the posting fee for Park could be at least double the $5MM Pittsburgh bid to secure negotiation rights with Park’s former Nexen Heroes teammate, Jung Ho Kang. Sawchik writes that as many as 20 teams have scouted Park, with the Rangers having sent “top executives” to watch him. Sawchik also points out the presence of top prospect Josh Bell, who isn’t far from the Majors and projects as a power-hitting first baseman himself. While Bell could be a trade chip, the Pirates also need to address the starting rotation, so perhaps spending money on Park while an internal option is present isn’t the optimal use of their resources. The Pirates, like other MLB clubs, don’t have too long to decide, as Park will be posted next Monday with bids due by next Friday.
  • The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette’s Bill Brink writes that the Pirates have at least cursory interest in Park, reminding that they applied for credentials to watch him earlier this season. However, he also notes that Kang’s success will probably boost the market’s valuation of Park, possibly pricing him out of the range of Pittsburgh, who also has $8MM committed to Mike Morse next year. Earlier today, Sawchik examined at length how Kang’s success could drive up the market for Park.
  • While no one’s quite certain whether or not the Reds will trade Aroldis Chapman this winter, Jon Heyman of CBS Sports writes that the Diamondbacks, Blue Jays and Nationals would be at the forefront of trade talks for Cincinnati’s All-Star closer this offseason should they listen to offers. The D-Backs, of course, pursued Chapman aggressively prior to the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline, while the Nats could have a very different-looking bullpen next year. Drew Storen seems like an obvious trade candidate, and the Nationals will almost certainly shop Jonathan Papelbon this winter as well.

List Of 2016 Super Two Qualifiers

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Presented below is the list of players who have qualified for Super Two status for arbitration purposes this year. (Service time in parentheses.) As MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes recently tweeted, the service time cutoff is 2.130. You can find arbitration salary projections for these players right here.

Click here to read more about how the Super Two concept works. Note that, as the link shows, the originally projected service time cutoff moved down as things played out over the course of the season. That brought some notable names into early arbitration qualification — namely, Calhoun and Rendon — which could have a big impact on their earning power in potential extension scenarios.

It’s also important to bear in mind that several of the players listed above have already agreed to long-term extensions: Gyorko, Lagares, and Archer. Notably, the size of the guarantee provided by Archer’s contract is dependent upon his Super Two status. By reaching it (as had been expected), he keeps a $25.5MM overall guarantee. That total would have been reduced to $20MM otherwise.

That contract structure reflects the importance of reaching Super Two status. Doing so not only bumps a player’s salary a year early, but sets a higher floor for future paydays.

Quick Hits: Royals, Lackey, Odor, Brown, D-Backs

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While Alex Gordon is a lock to decline his $14MM player option, he doesn’t want to leave the Royals, writes Jon Heyman of CBS Sports in his latest notes column. “I want to be here,” Gordon told Heyman. “This is like my second home. We love it here … Obviously, things happen … but this is where we want to be.” Of course, Gordon figures to have a chance at a nine-figure contract on the open market if he chooses to test it, and the Royals have never come close to spending that kind of cash on any player before, as MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes recently pointed out. Heyman also spoke to Johnny Cueto, who acknowledged that his late slide has damaged his free-agent chances. “That’s the way it is,” Cueto said, adding that he hopes he can get some degree of redemption in the World Series. Cueto said adjusting to a new league has played a part in his struggles, but he’s still plenty open to the challenge of signing with an AL club. “The DH isn’t a bad thing,” said Cueto. “I like the challenge.”

More from Heyman’s piece and from around the league…

  • John Lackey may have recently turned 37 years old, but his strong work in 2013-15 has some in the industry thinking that he could land a three-year deal worth $15-20MM annually, Heyman writes. I’d agree that a three-year offer is plausible, though the annual values mentioned by Heyman — especially at the top end of that range — seem pretty aggressive.
  • The Rangers “are expected” to discuss a long-term deal with standout second baseman Rougned Odor following the completion of the World Series, Heyman hears. Odor, still just 21 years old (22 in February), was demoted to the minors earlier this year due to enormous struggles at the plate, but he was among baseball’s most productive middle infielders upon his return to the bigs. Odor went 3-for-3 on June 15 when he was recalled and proceeded to hit .292/.334/.527 with 15 homers through season’s end. Some might assume a bloated BABIP helped to inflate his numbers, but he batted a very sustainable .305 on balls in play after his recall from the minors.
  • The Orioles have “limited interest” in former Phillies outfielder Domonic Brown, MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko tweets. It’ll be interesting to see where Brown lands, and what kind of deal he gets. Baltimore would seem, on paper, to be somewhat of a fit for a buy-low corner outfield option, especially if the team’s front office devotes substantial resources to addressing its needs in the rotation and/or re-signing Chris Davis. However, Kubatko’s tweet doesn’t make it seem like Brown is anywhere near the top of Baltimore’s offseason targets.
  • Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic provides an excellent preview of the Diamondbacks’ expected search for starting pitching this offseason. Arizona can’t afford top-tier arms like David Price, Zack Greinke, Johnny Cueto and Jordan Zimmermann, he notes. Many teams will be in that boat, which could push the market for second-tier arms like Mike Leake beyond the D-Backs’ comfort zone. Piecoro calls Lackey a “perfect fit” for the Snakes, noting that his age will cap the number of years Lackey can receive and keep him in Arizona’s comfort range. Among other free agent candidates suggested by Piecoro are Hisashi Iwakuma and Nippon Professional Baseball righty Kenta Maeda, who is expected to be posted this winter. In terms of trade candidates, Piecoro points out that the Indians and D-Backs line up well, as Arizona has plenty of young bats — a big need for Cleveland, which possesses a wealth of young pitching.

Elected Free Agency: Carlos Corporan, Darwin Barney

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As teams continue to go through the process of end-of-season 40-man roster maintenance, outrighted players will continue to elect free agency, expanding the available pool of talent this offseason. Here are today’s notable players to elect free agency…

  • Rangers catcher Carlos Corporan and outfielder Antoan Richardson have refused outright assignments and elected free agency, reports Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram (Twitter link). The 31-year-old Corporan served as a backup to Robinson Chirinos this season but batted just .178/.244/.299 with three homers in 121 plate appearances. Corporan is a career .218/.280/.342 hitter in parts of six big league seasons (780 plate appearances). He’d have been arbitration eligible this winter, with MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projecting a $1.2MM salary. Richardson, 32, underwent surgery late in spring training to repair a herniated disk in his back. He has limited big league experience but is a prolific and efficient base-stealer in his minor league career.
  • Baseball America’s Matt Eddy reports that Darwin Barney has elected free agency after being outrighted by the Blue Jays. Barney, a fixture in the Cubs’ infield from 2010-14, came to the Blue Jays by way of trade from the Dodgers in September. Toronto had a need at second base with Devon Travis again sidelined by injuries, and Barney was picked up to fill that role despite the fact that being acquired after Sept. 1 made him ineligible for the postseason. Barney spent most of the season in Triple-A with the Dodgers, where he batted .277/.325/.354. He has an excellent defensive reputation and won an NL Gold Glove Award in 2012.

AL West Notes: Mariners Coaches, Ibanez, Angels, Astros

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The Mariners announced today that Angels special assistant Tim Bogar has been hired as the bench coach to serve under newly minted manager Scott Servais (as Mike DiGiovanna of the L.A. Times reported would happen last week). Seattle also announced that Mel Stottlemyre Jr. has been named the club’s new pitching coach. Edgar Martinez will return as the team’s hitting coach, and Chris Woodward will once again handle first base coach duties in Seattle. That leaves openings at third base coach and bullpen coach, and Bob Dutton of the Tacoma News Tribune tweets that two names under consideration are Padres bench coach Dave Roberts and former big league catcher Dan Wilson, who has been Seattle’s minor league catching coordinator for the past three seasons.

A bit more from the AL West…

  • Dutton also tweets that the Mariners have spoken to Raul Ibanez about either a front office role or a position on the coaching staff. Ibanez, of course, played for the Mariners from 1996-2000 and then again from 2004-08 before returning for one final stint in 2013. He’s also familiar with GM Jerry Dipoto, though, as Dipoto signed Ibanez to a low-risk one-year deal for the 2014 season. That move didn’t work out, however, as Ibanez was unable to recreate the production he showed in his final season with the Mariners when he blasted 29 homers as a 41-year-old.
  • Angels GM Billy Eppler acknowledged that the hires of Servais, Bogar and Matt Klentak, who was announced as the new Phillies GM this morning, has taken a toll on the front office, writes MLB.com’s Alden Gonzalez. “That’s no doubt going to be felt throughout a number of departments,” said Eppler. Per Gonzalez, Eppler is keeping an open mind and talking to a wide variety of candidates for the club’s coaching staff and front office. Among those who are possibilities to fill the role of assistant GM to Eppler are Hal Morris and Kevin Reese. Morris is presently the Angels’ director of pro scouting, while Reese holds that same title with Eppler’s former organization, the Yankees.
  • Within his column, Gonzalez notes that Rangers pitching coach is soliciting offers from other clubs and could be a candidate to fill the Angels’ vacancy at that post. As was reported recently, Maddux’s contract expires at the end of this month. He’s been invited back by Texas but appears to be testing the waters to see what sort of interest other clubs may have.
  • The Astros’ payroll will likely increase in 2016, writes MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart, though that will be in large part due to arbitration raises for Dallas Keuchel, Jason Castro, Evan Gattis and Chris Carter. The Astros will try to add another starting pitcher to what was a top-heavy rotation in 2015, he adds. McTaggart also notes that Carter’s tremendous late-season surge complicates the team’s decision on whether not he should be tendered a contract, though it may also have helped to create a trade market for Carter’s services.

Cafardo On Murphy, Price, Davis, Cueto

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In today’s column, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe spoke with eight major league officials about the players trending up and trending down as free agency approaches.  It probably won’t surprise you to learn that the list of players trending in the right direction starts with Mets second baseman Daniel Murphy.

“Obviously, he’s not going to be as hot as he’s been in the postseason, but he plays positions where his power plays well,” an American League GM told Cafardo. “There are teams like the Dodgers and Yankees who need a second baseman. Others, like the Angels, need a third baseman, where he also plays. He’s going to be sought-after and get a five-year deal at around $75MM. Maybe more.”

Murphy, who can also play at first base, would also have appeal for the attractive to the Orioles, Astros, Padres, and Tigers, Cafardo writes.

Here’s more from today’s column..

  • The feeling is that a seven-year, $210MM deal for David Price would be fair, Cafardo writes, though some are concerned that Price won’t live up to that kind of deal unless he goes somewhere that he’s comfortable. The incumbent Blue Jays could be that place, but the Dodgers, Cardinals, and Cubs are also listed as possibilities.  Price, 30, pitched to a 2.45 ERA with 9.2 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9 in 32 regular season starts for the Tigers and Blue Jays this past season.
  • The group of eight anonymous scouts, managers, and GMs polled by Cafardo would not want to give Orioles bopper Chris Davis more than a five-year deal.  Of course, a team out there very well could. “In the heat of the negotiations and fearing someone else will get him, this will likely get beyond what everybody wants. Scott Boras is the agent, so we may be looking at seven years,” one scout remarked.  Recently, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes profiled the two-time home run king and estimated that he’ll be in line for a six-year, $144MM pact.
  • Johnny Cueto had a rough second half after being traded to the Royals and one National League GM told Cafardo that a “few teams have scratched him off their list.”  Still, that GM estimates that Cueto can net a Jon Lester-type $155MM deal.  Recently, we learned that the Red Sox are mulling a serious push for Cueto.  The Marlins also like Cueto, but financial constraints will probably hold them back in that pursuit.
  • One GM told Cafardo that he wouldn’t give Royals outfielder Alex Gordon anything more than a three-year deal at $36MM-$38MM.  In addition to KC, Cafardo recently listed the Indians, Orioles, Mets, Tigers, and possibly the Red Sox as potential fits.
  • Nationals hurler Jordan Zimmermann didn’t have a great season, but he was listed by Cafardo as a player whose arrow is pointing upwards.  One NL scout praised Zimmermann’s work ethic and toughness.  At the end of the regular season, Zimmermann sounded like a player who knows that he’ll be changing teams.
  • One AL GM envisions Blue Jays pitcher Marco Estrada attracting attention from “six or seven teams” who could offer up a “four- or five-year deal in the $12MM-$15MM [per year] range.”  Last month, MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk checked in on Estrada’s free agent stock.  The right-hander posted a 3.13 ERA with 6.5 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9 across 28 starts and six relief appearances in 2015.
  • Cafardo’s panel indicated that Scott Kazmir could get a three-year deal this offseason, but at a reduced rate because of his struggles with the Astros down the stretch.  The group of eight officials sees Kazmir getting $10-$12MM AAV over a three year period.  The Tigers are among the clubs with interest in the veteran left-hander, though Kazmir has also expressed a desire to return to Houston.
  • At least two teams have their top advisers and scouts looking at Rich Hill’s last four starts with the Red Sox to see if his emergence in 2015 is for real.  One AL scout who has done his homework on the left-hander praised the hurler for his confidence.
  • Cafardo identified the Braves, Dodgers, Rays, Astros, and Mariners as teams that could have interest in Orioles catcher Matt Wieters.  Of course, his market will be impacted by whether or not he receives a qualifying offer.  The Rangers will be among the teams with interest, according to Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com, but only if he does come with a QO attached.  In a recent MLBTR poll, 60% of readers said that the O’s should give Wieters a QO.

Adrian Beltre Undergoes Thumb Surgery

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Rangers third baseman Adrian Beltre underwent surgery on his left thumb yesterday, the club announced via press release. The club expects that he’ll “be fully ready for spring training,” per the statement.

The club explained that scar tissue was removed and a general clean-up was performed. Beltre injured a ligament in the thumb on May 31 on a slide, according to the team.

The veteran played through the injury for much of the year, drawing stunned admiration in the process. Beltre, 36, managed not only to appear in 143 games and take 619 trips to the plate, but produced a .287/.334/.453 slash with 18 home runs while drawing typically stellar defensive ratings.

All in all, it wasn’t that far from a typical season for the future Hall-of-Famer, who’ll earn $18MM next year in the final year of his contract. It’s not to soon to call that five-year, $80MM pact — which included a 2016 option, now guaranteed, to bring its total value to $96MM over six seasons — an outright bargain. Beltre has already contributed about 30 rWAR since coming to Texas.

Scott Servais A “Strong Front-Runner” For Mariners Manager

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Just-hired Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto decided largely to start from scratch in constructing his team’s field staff, parting ways with incumbent skipper Lloyd McClendon and many of his coaches. Now, the club is joining the managerial market as it looks to develop a group of uniformed personnel that meshes well with the new front office.

We’ll keep track of the latest in this post:

  • Servais is now the “strong front-runner” for the Mariners’ managerial opening, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (via Twitter). Mike DiGiovanna of the L.A. Times adds (also via Twitter) that Servais, like Dipoto, butted heads with manager Mike Scioscia at times and wasn’t expected to remain with the Angels.

Earlier Updates

  • Angels assistant GM/director of player development Scott Servais, who has been rumored to be a candidate to join the club’s front office, is “gaining traction” as a managerial candidate, reports Bob Dutton of the Tacoma News Tribune. Servais, of course, worked with Dipoto in the Angels’ front office but is said to have a desire to become a manager as well and has been linked to the Padres’ vacancy, too.
  • One source told Dutton that Dipoto is interviewing five candidates. If that’s the case, he notes, the list of candidates would seem to be Servais, Bogar, Varitek, Montoyo and Nevin.
  • Jon Heyman of CBS Sports hears that the Mariners have interviewed former big league catcher Jason Varitek for the position. Previous reports have indicated that it isn’t clear if Varitek would be interested in leaving his Boston-area home (and, more specifically, leaving his young children), so it’s not known if he will give the position serious consideration. Varitek doesn’t have managerial experience, though former major leaguers Brad Ausmus, Mike Matheny and Paul Molitor were all recently hired without prior experience.
  • Rays coach Charlie Montoyo interviewed today for the job, Ken Davidoff of the New York Post reports on Twitter. He served as the club’s third base coach this year after an eight-year run as the manager for the Triple-A Durham Bulls.
  • USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports that the Mariners will interview Diamondbacks Triple-A manager and longtime Major Leaguer Phil Nevin (Twitter link). Nevin has been mentioned increasingly as a future Major League manager and has drawn interest from every club with a managerial vacancy this offseason.
  • Angels special assistant Tim Bogar, who was once the interim skipper for the Rangers, has been mentioned as a possible front-runner from the job. He and Dipoto are not only former teammates, but worked together recently in Los Angeles.
  • The club is also expected to show interest in a variety of other candidates. Among those mentioned thus far as at-least-hypothetical possibilities are Alex and Joey Cora, Padres bench coach Dave Roberts, Rays third base coach Charlie Montoya, former Pads manager Bud Black, long-time Mariners Raul Ibanez and Dan Wilson, and a host of others.

Jurickson Profar, Dylan Bundy To Join Arizona Fall League

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Two of the most heralded prospects in recent memory — Jurickson Profar of the Rangers and Dylan Bundy of the Orioles, both just 22 years of age — are set to participate in the Arizona Fall League after long injury layoffs, according to team announcements.

The news had long been expected for Profar, who was named to the roster already. But he’ll now be activated for the first time, meaning he is no longer on the 60-day DL and will take up a roster spot. Eduardo Encina of the Baltimore Sun reported on Bundy yesterday, explaining that the Orioles want him to see some live action before the spring. Per the team announcement, he’ll take the AFL spot of righty Jon Keller.

Profar did manage a brief rehab stint in the minors already this year, marking his first game action since 2013. He’ll continue to serve as a DH in the AFL as he works to reacclimate his bat even as he continues to get his oft-injured right shoulder in shape for duty in the field. Profar debuted with Texas way back in 2012, when he was just 19 years of age. He owns only a .231/.301/.343 slash in 341 big league plate appearances, but he took all of those in or before his age-20 season.

It’s not yet clear whether and how Profar will factor into the Rangers’ plans for 2015, but he seems on track to do so. Texas still has Elvis Andrus embedded at shortstop and figures to continue utilizing the promising Rougned Odor at second. While an eventual replacement or contributor at short could make sense, it’s far from clear whether Profar will ever again be able to handle the demands of throwing from that position.

Bundy, meanwhile, also debuted in 2012 and has yet to return to the big leagues after suffering a variety of arm ailments. He has made it back for rehab stints in each of the last two seasons, but both times has been shut down after relatively limited action. He was not originally a part of Baltimore’s AFL plans, but will be moved into the competitive league after showing sufficient progress.

This is an important winter for Bundy and the O’s, as he’s out of options for 2016. That means that Baltimore will need to keep its former top prospect on the major league roster out of camp or risk losing him on waivers. While he’s most valued as a future starter, Bundy will obviously need to build back his innings and could feature as a reliever in the near-term.

Outrighted: Blanks, Corporan, Richardson, Strausborger, Fryer, Robinson, Thompson

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Here are the day’s outright assignments:

  • The Rangers have outrighted infielder/outfielder Kyle Blanks, catcher Carlos Corporan, and outfielders Antoan Richardson and Ryan Strausborger, according to a club announcement. Blanks continues to struggle to stay on the field and ended his season with surgeries on both feet. Corporan, acquired last winter from the Astros, struggled to a .178/.244/.299 batting line in 121 plate appearances for Texas. Richardson saw minimal action this year, all in the minors. And Strausborger, 27, reached the majors for the first time, though he produced only a .507 OPS in his first 51 plate appearances.
  • The Twins outrighted catcher Eric Fryer, outfielder Shane Robinson, and lefty Aaron Thompson from their 40-man roster, as Phil Miller of the Star Tribune was among those to report (on Twitter). All have cleared waivers. Fryer, 30, has seen limited MLB action in each of the last five seasons and will surely catch on somewhere (if not back in Minnesota) as a depth option. Robinson, who is also 30, has been somewhat more heavily used at the major league level. Despite a light bat, he is capable of playing center and has received solid grades on his glovework. As for the 28-year-old Thompson, he managed only a 5.01 ERA last year in his first season of frequent MLB usage.
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