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Nathan Eovaldi Opts Out Of Rangers Contract

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Rangers president of baseball operations Chris Young told reporters (including Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News) this morning that right-hander Nathan Eovaldi has declined his $20MM player option for the 2025 season, making him a free agent. Young added that the club has “great interest” in reuniting with him this winter.

Eovaldi, 34, just wrapped up his second season in Texas. The veteran right-hander was solid but unspectacular for the Rangers this year as he pitched to a 3.80 ERA (104 ERA+) with a 3.83 FIP in 170 2/3 innings of work. Given that rather uninspiring platform season, Eovaldi’s decision to opt out may register as something of a surprise at first glance. A closer look to the right-hander’s season and overall body of work makes it clear why he would opt out ahead of his age-35 season in hopes of seeking what could be the last multi-year pact of his career, however.

An All-Star for the Rangers just last year, Eovaldi has pitched to a 3.72 ERA (110 ERA+) and a 3.86 FIP during his time with the Rangers. Those results are largely consistent with the numbers he posted during his final three years with the Red Sox, for whom he posted a 3.79 ERA (120 ERA+) with a 3.43 FIP from 2020 to 2022, including a dominant 2021 season where he was named an All-Star and finished fourth in AL Cy Young award voting. Those numbers cast Eovaldi as a solid mid-rotation arm, and his underlying numbers suggest he could continue to be a quality, playoff caliber arm even as he ages.

His fastball velocity (which averaged 95.6 in 2024) remains strong even as he enters his mid-30s, and he maintains that high-octane stuff despite boasting a 5.6% walk rate that stands as the fifth-best in baseball over the past half decade among pitchers with at least 600 innings of work. During his time with the Rangers, he’s tended to be a victim of high home run rates, thanks in part to Globe Life Field being among the most homer-friendly parks in the sport. That reality in conjunction with his solid 7.7% barrel rate with the Rangers helps to explain why advanced metrics like SIERA think so highly of Eovaldi, whose 3.88 figure over the past two seasons mirrors that of top free agent starter Corbin Burnes.

Of course, Eovaldi surely won’t come especially close to matching Burnes or the other top pitchers on the market this winter in terms of guarantee. That’s both because Eovaldi’s overall results (115 ERA+ from 2020-24) have fallen well short of that upper echelon of pitching talent in recent years, and also because he’ll already be 35 years old when pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training in February. While it seems reasonable to expect Eovaldi to earn a healthy average annual value, it would be surprising to see him land more than two or three years in free agency. That makes him a particularly interesting free agent as a potentially impactful rotation piece who may be more attractive to teams that tend to hesitate on lengthy contracts, like the Angels, Cubs, and Orioles, in addition to the Rangers’ aforementioned interest in a reunion. Sean Manaea, Nick Pivetta, and Luis Severino are among the other players who figure to occupy the middle tier of the free agent rotation market this winter.

Red Sox Exercise Club Option On Rob Refsnyder

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The Red Sox announced this morning that they’ve exercised their club option on outfielder Rob Refsnyder for the 2025 season. Refsnyder will make $2.1MM in 2025.

The decision to exercise Refsnyder’s option was surely an easy one for the Red Sox, given the low financial cost associated with the deal and his excellent 2024 campaign. Though Refsnyder was only a part-time player for the Red Sox this year with just 307 trips to the plate across 93 plate appearances, the 33-year-old slashed an excellent .283/.359/.471 with a 130 wRC+, including a .302/.393/.548 with a 160 wRC+ against left-handed pitching. That ability to rake against southpaws is particularly valuable for the Red Sox due to their lefty-heavy lineup, where Jarren Duran, Wilyer Abreu, and Masataka Yoshida are all swing lefty in the outfield mix.

Refsnyder hasn’t simply been a one-season wonder, either. The veteran has provided the club with quality production off the bench in each of his three seasons in Boston, slashing a solid .278/.367/.427 (122 wRC+) in 727 trips to the plate with the club since he first joined them back in 2022. That sort of steady production in a bench role can be difficult to come by, making today’s decision to bring Refsnyder back for 2025 something of a no-brainer. The biggest possible hurdle to Refsnyder returning to the Red Sox next year was the possibility that he could contemplate retirement following the 2024 campaign, but he put those questions to bed in late September when he suggested that he would be open to playing “a couple more years” before hanging up the cleats.

Obvious as the move to bring Refsnyder back into the fold for 2025 was, however, it only serves to highlight just how crowded the club’s outfield mix has become. Duran and Abreu figure to get the lion’s share of starts in two of three outfield spots next year with both Refsnyder and Yoshida also on the roster as players restricted to outfield and DH duties. Ceddanne Rafaela, meanwhile, is capable of playing all over the diamond but is the club’s best defensive center fielder on the roster and not nearly as well regarded defensively when on the infield dirt.

Playing time figures to be further complicated by the impending arrival of top prospect Roman Anthony, another lefty swinging outfielder, and the club has also been heavily rumored to have interest in adding an everyday player who hits from the right side like incumbent slugger Tyler O’Neill or 2023-24 offseason target Teoscar Hernandez to the lineup this winter. With so many outfield options to be considered, it would hardly be a surprise if the Red Sox looked to deal from their outfield mix in order to clear up playing time and address the rotation. If such a trade does come to pass, however, Refsnyder is unlikely to be the one departing the Red Sox. Moving on from his $2.1MM salary would be relatively inconsequential in the great picture of Boston’s financial outlook, and one year of a part time player is unlikely to command a major return on the trade market.

Mets Decline Team Option On Phil Maton

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The Mets have declined their $7.75MM team option on right-hander Phil Maton, according to Jon Heyman of the New York Post. The 31-year-old will receive a $250K buyout and return to free agency.

The decision isn’t much of a surprise, even though Maton pitched quite well for the club down the stretch this season. The veteran righty posted a 2.58 ERA with a nearly identical 2.57 FIP in 28 2/3 innings of work after being acquired from the Rays in early July, with a 26.5% strikeout rate against a 5.3% walk rate. Those excellent numbers may have been worth considering the $7.5MM decision on his option if they were held throughout the season, but that unfortunately was not the case.

Not only did Maton struggle badly in the playoffs, with an 8.53 ERA in six appearances for the Mets this season, but his brief tenure with the Rays was something of a disaster. His 4.58 ERA in 35 1/3 frames with the club was 12% worse than league average by measure of ERA+, and his 5.63 FIP was 42% below par by measure of FIP-. He struck out just 19.7% of batters faced during his time with Tampa Bay, but even more concerning was the fact that his walk rate ballooned to 11.8% during that time. In all, that leaves Maton to enter free agency with a platform season that casts him as a solid but unspectacular middle reliever with a 3.66 ERA and 4.26 FIP in 71 appearances this year.

That’s more or less par for the course for Maton throughout his eight seasons in the majors. The right-hander sports a career ERA of 4.16 (100 ERA+) with a 4.00 FIP and a 25.9% strikeout rate against a 9% walk rate. The best season of Maton’s career came just last year with the Astros, his third season in Houston after the club acquired him from Cleveland midway through the 2021 campaign in the trade that made Myles Straw a Guardian. In 2023, Maton struck out 27% of opponents while walking 9.1% en route to a 3.00 ERA in 66 innings of work.

A club that buys into Maton’s 2023 performance and his stretch run during the regular season with New York this year could potentially look at the right-hander as a late-inning option, although it’s possible he’s best suited to serve as a steadying, veteran presence in a bullpen like those of the Tigers, Cubs, and Rockies that has relied heavily on relatively young and inexperienced players. All three of those teams figure to be in the market for relief help this winter, but that can also be said of virtually every team in baseball. That should leave Maton comfortably in position to land a big league deal this winter, even if it doesn’t come at an AAV north of $7MM like this team option would have if exercised.

As for the Mets, Edwin Diaz remains locked in as the club’s closer and players like Jose Butto, Sean Reid-Foley, and Alex Young all impressed with the club this year. While it wouldn’t be a shock to see them look for bullpen upgrades this winter (particularly from the left side), they’ve already begun to make additions with their recent deal to land right-hander Dylan Covey. The signing of Covey, who has struggled in the majors but spent time both as a relief arm and a starter, could signal that the Mets don’t plan to spend much of their considerable payroll flexibility this winter on relievers as they look to reconstruct their rotation, retain first baseman Pete Alonso, and get into the thick of the bidding for Juan Soto.

Royals Sign Michael Wacha To Three-Year Deal

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The Royals announced this afternoon that they’ve signed right-hander Michael Wacha to a three-year contract with a club option for the 2028 season. Wacha will earn $18MM in each of the 2025 and 2026 seasons and then at least $14MM in 2027, with another $4MM available in incentive bonuses. The $14MM club option for 2028 contains a $1MM buyout.  All in all, the three-year pact will net Wacha at least $51MM in guaranteed money. Wacha is represented by CAA Sports.

Wacha signed a two-year, $32MM free agent deal with Kansas City last offseason that contained an opt-out clause after the first year. It was widely assumed that Wacha would opt out (leaving $16MM on the table) and return to free agency, though this new deal will give Wacha some security after bouncing around the league for the last several years.

The 33-year-old got his start with the Cardinals after being selected in the first round of the 2012 draft, but performed as little more than a back-end starter in seven seasons with St. Louis. After his first forays into free agency saw him post below-average numbers with the Rays and Mets, Wacha managed to turn things around in a big way after signing with the Red Sox on a one-year deal prior to the 2022 season.

In 23 starts with Boston, he posted an excellent 3.32 ERA in 127 1/3 innings of work. Wacha has kept that level of performance up throughout his early thirties, with a 3.30 ERA in 76 starts over the past three years with the Red Sox, Padres, and Royals. That 128 ERA+ is already quality mid-rotation production that most any club would happily take as a part of their starting five, but Wacha’s overall numbers looked even better with Kansas City than they had in his two prior successful campaigns.

Wacha largely maintained a more or less identical strikeout rate (21.2%) to the 21.3% figure he posted from 2022-23, and his walk rate ticked down slightly from 6.9% to 6.6%. Far more important than that, however, is Wacha’s improved ability to suppress hard contact. The right-hander’s hard-hit rate of 32.2% was the lowest Wacha had posted since 2017, while his barrel rate also improved slightly over his 2022-23 figure. Overall, Wacha’s quality of contact numbers were among the best of his career, including the lowest line drive rate he’s ever posted in a full season, plus improved groundball and infield fly ball rates relative to his 2022-23 seasons. Altogether, that improved batted ball data left the righty with not only a strong 3.35 ERA but also a 3.65 FIP that was his best in seven years.

Looking ahead to 2025 and beyond, the move to keep Wacha in the fold solidifies Kansas City’s rotation entering next season, keeping a front three of Seth Lugo, Cole Ragans, and Wacha together while Brady Singer, Alec Marsh, and Kyle Wright are among the club’s options for their final two starting jobs. With their rotation perhaps mostly set, the Royals will now surely look to upgrade an offense that generally struggled to produce in 2024 outside of superstar shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. In particular, the Royals figure to look for upgrades to their outfield mix coming off a season where the club’s 79 wRC+ in the outfield was bottom three in baseball ahead of only the White Sox and Pirates.

While Wacha’s fresh contract in Kansas City takes a quality mid-rotation arm off of the market, a number of interesting pitchers remain available this winter. Corbin Burnes, Max Fried, Blake Snell, and Jack Flaherty stand at the top of the market, with mid-rotation options like Nathan Eovaldi, Sean Manaea, and Luis Severino among the players still available in a similar tier to Wacha for the many clubs who figure to be on the hunt for rotation help.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan first reported Wacha’s new deal, with MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand adding the full contract breakdown.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Gerrit Cole Triggers Opt-Out In Deal With Yankees

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TODAY: The Yankees’ deadline to decide on Cole is 4pm CT on Monday, according to MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (X link).  The New York Post’s Jon Heyman reported earlier today that the deadline was on Monday, rather than tonight.

NOVEMBER 2: Right-hander Gerrit Cole has triggered the opt-out in his deal with the Yankees, per Kiley McDaniel and Jeff Passan of ESPN on X. However, he is not yet a free agent, as the club has a chance to void the opt-out by tacking on an extra year at the same $36MM salary as the rest of the contract.

Cole’s original deal with the Yanks was for $324MM over nine years with even salaries of $36MM in each season, starting in 2020. Per that deal, he could opt out after five years, walking away from the final four years and $144MM. The Yanks could then tack on another $36MM for 2029 and negate the opt-out. Now that Cole has triggered his opt-out, the Yankees now have to effectively decide if they want Cole back for $180MM over the next five years. If not, Cole will return to free agency.

For the first few years of the contract, Cole continued to pitch to his usual excellent standards. From 2020 through 2023, he tossed 664 innings, allowing 3.08 earned runs per nine. He struck out 31.1% of batters faced, limited walks to a 5.9% clip and got grounders at a 41.1% clip. He racked up 15.4 wins above replacement in that time, per the calculations of FanGraphs, fifth in the majors behind Zack Wheeler, Corbin Burnes, Kevin Gausman and Aaron Nola. He won the American League Cy Young last year by posting a 2.63 ERA over 209 innings.

Throughout that time, it seemed quite obvious how the contract situation would play out. Cole would make the no-brainer decision to trigger his opt-out while the Yanks would make the equally-easy decision to add on the extra year, bringing their total commitment to $360MM over 10 years.

But the road ahead became a little less certain as things developed in 2024. Cole dealt with some elbow inflammation during spring training and was shut down for a while. No structural damage was found but he was sent to the 60-day injured list as he underwent his non-surgical rehab. He was eventually able to get back on the mound, making his season debut in the middle of June.

He was a little shaky at first, with a 6.75 ERA through his first four starts, but his numbers were far more Cole-like from there. He posted a 2.67 ERA in his final 13 starts of the year. His 25.7% strikeout rate wasn’t quite all the way back to his usual level but his 6.8% walk rate was still quite strong. He made another five postseason starts with a 2.17 ERA, helping the Yanks reach their first World Series since 2009.

While Cole has seemed like his old self for months, the Yanks may still have to think about this one. As seen in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, the largest deal for a pitcher aged 34 or older was the five years and $185MM that the Rangers gave to Jacob deGrom. That deal hasn’t gone well so far, as deGrom required Tommy John surgery and hardly pitched for the Rangers in the first two years of that pact. The Yankees would have to essentially match that deal to prevent Cole from getting away. As mentioned, tacking on the extra year would mean committing to paying Cole $180MM over the next five years, just shy of the deGrom deal.

Cole’s record of durability is far better than deGrom’s. Cole has thrown almost 2,000 innings to this point in his career while deGrom was just over 1300 when he signed with Texas. Still, Cole is just recovered from a notable absence related to his throwing elbow. Most of the other pitchers in this age bracket signed shorter deals with higher average annual values, with Wheeler’s recent extension with the Phillies coming in at $126MM over three years. Max Scherzer’s deal with the Mets was $130MM over three, though he was a few years older, starting that deal at age-37.

The Yankees are facing the prospect of Juan Soto hitting free agency and Cole is potentially a second superstar departure. Some have argued that the Soto situation should motivate the Yanks to keep Cole, just to stave of that possibility of losing two stars on the heels of a frustrating World Series loss. On the other hand, some have suggested that the Yanks might welcome having an extra $36MM of payroll space to use on luring Soto back to the Bronx.

The latter line of thinking would leave a big hole in the rotation, but it wouldn’t be an awful group without Cole. The projected rotation would still include Carlos Rodón, Luis Gil, Clarke Schmidt, Nestor Cortes and Marcus Stroman. If the Yanks let Cole go, they could focus on Soto and circle back to him later or pursue some other starting pitchers. They had reported interest in Blake Snell last winter and he is opting out of his deal, becoming a free agent again. The market will also feature Burnes, Jack Flaherty, Max Fried and plenty of others. Garrett Crochet, Erick Fedde and dozens of other could be available in trade.

It’s one of the more interesting decisions of the offseason. Most free agent contracts bring back the best returns in the early years and get more painful as the deals go along. The Yankees have a chance to walk away after the best years and perhaps avoid the downside. But doing so would mean letting one of the best pitchers in the league slip through their fingers. They have until Sunday evening to decide, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today on X.

Nationals Decline Their Side Of Joey Gallo’s Mutual Option

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The Nationals announced that they declined their end of Joey Gallo’s $8MM mutual option for the 2025 season.  Gallo will instead receive a $2.5MM buyout as he heads into free agency for the third consecutive winter.  Last offseason, Gallo signed a one-year deal with Washington worth $5MM in guaranteed money, broken down as a $2.5MM salary and then at least $2.5MM via the buyout.

The rebuilding Nats have made a habit of signing veterans to short-term deals and then looking to flip them at the trade deadline, though multiple injuries and Gallo’s overall struggles scuttled any trade value.  Gallo hit only .161/.277/.336 with 10 home runs over 260 plate appearances, translating to a 76 wRC+ and a below-replacement value of -0.2 fWAR.

Gallo’s 12.3% walk rate and 13.1% barrel rate were still solid in comparison to the rest of the league, if well below his career averages (14.6BB%, 19.6% barrel rate).  His 39.2% strikeout rate was slightly higher than his career average, yet the third aspect of Gallo’s “three true outcomes” approach failed him greatly.  Gallo’s .175 Isolated Power number was his lowest in any full season.

On the health front, Gallo missed about three weeks due to an AC sprain in his left shoulder, and then over two months due to a hamstring strain.  It might be fair to chalk up Gallo’s shaky production to these injuries, though his overall performance has been very up-and-down over the last five seasons, evening out to almost a perfectly average 99 wRC+ in his last 1844 plate appearances.

This inconsistency has led to Gallo playing for five different teams in the last four years, going from the Rangers to the Yankees to the Dodgers in trades, and then to free agent deals with the Twins and Nationals.  He might have to settle for a minor league contract in the wake of his rough 2024 campaign, though Gallo should still draw some attention based on his past track record.  Gallo is a veteran of 10 MLB seasons but is still only just a few weeks away from his 31st birthday.

Gallo primarily served as the left-handed side of the Nationals’ first base platoon, with a few appearances in both corner outfield slots and at DH.  It was no surprise that Washington would be passing on Gallo’s mutual option, as it is widely assume that the Nats will be looking for a big upgrade at first base this winter.  This could manifest itself as a full-time regular, or perhaps another left-handed bat to split time with Juan Yepez.

Yankees Decline Club Option On Lou Trivino

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The Yankees announced that they declined their $5MM club option on Lou Trivino’s services for the 2025 season.  No buyout was attached to the option, and the 33-year-old reliever will now head to the open market.

Trivino hasn’t pitched in the majors since Game 3 of the 2022 ALCS, as he suffered an elbow sprain during the following Spring Training and then underwent a Tommy John surgery in May 2023.  He returned to the mound to toss 11 minor league innings in New York’s organization this season, though he dealt with elbow inflammation that delayed the start of his rehab work, and then some shoulder soreness brought an early end to his 2024 season.

The Yankees non-tendered Trivino last offseason and then re-signed the righty to a $1.5MM guaranteed contract with the $5MM option for 2025.  These types of contracts for pitchers recovering from major arm surgeries have become fairly common around the league, as the Bombers were betting that Trivino would get healthy and show enough to put himself into the club’s plans for next season.  However, Trivino’s continued health concerns made it a pretty easy call for New York to move on.  Another contract with the Yankees wouldn’t be a surprise, if the team still has interest in Trivino but simply at a lower price point than $5MM.

Trivino has a 3.86 ERA over 284 2/3 MLB innings, with 263 of those innings coming with the Athletics from 2018-21.  The A’s dealt Trivino and Frankie Montas to the Yankees in a prominent deal at the 2022 trade deadline, and Trivino had a 1.66 ERA in his first 21 2/3 frames in the pinstripes, as well as 3 2/3 scoreless innings in the 2022 playoffs.

Brewers Decline Club Option On Devin Williams, Retain Control Via Arbitration

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The Brewers have declined their $10.5MM club option on closer Devin Williams, according to ESPN’s Jeff Passan. Williams will receive a $250K buyout and remains under team control for the 2025 season via arbitration, where MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him to earn $7.7MM in his final season prior to free agency.

The move hardly comes as a surprise given that the Brewers figure to save around $2.5MM by declining Williams’s option. The 30-year-old may have been able to put together a season where he played well enough to justify picking up that option had he been healthy, but multiple stress fractures in his back left Williams unable to pitch until late July this year. Once he was on the mound again, Williams was nothing short of his dominant self with a sensational 1.25 ERA and a 2.06 FIP in his 22 appearances during the regular season this year. In his limited playing time this season, Williams posted his typical elevated walk rate of 12.5% but made up for it as per usual with an otherworldly strikeout rate as he punched out a whopping 43.2% of opponents this year.

Eye-popping as those numbers may seem, they generally are not a product of sample size. Williams has been among the very best relievers in the sport ever since he broke out during the shortened 2020 season to earn the NL Rookie of the Year award, a top-7 finish in NL Cy Young award voting, and even down-ballot MVP consideration.

Since that incredible rookie year, Williams has pitched to a 1.70 ERA that’s 248% better than league average by ERA+ in 222 innings of work. That’s the second best ERA in baseball among qualified relievers over the past five years, second only to Emmanuel Clase. Meanwhile, Williams’s 2.24 FIP ranks third behind only Edwin Diaz and Matt Brash, and his 40.8% strikeout rate is second only to Diaz.

As one of the very best relievers in baseball over the past half decade, Williams has been vital to Milwaukee’s success in recent years, particularly following the departure of Josh Hader at the 2022 trade deadline. While that could make Williams difficult for the club to replace in 2025 and beyond, the Brewers managed to remain successful in 2024 even after dealing Corbin Burnes to the Orioles last winter. Given that the first half of 2024 showed the Brewers were more than capable of getting by without Williams thanks to excellent performances from Trevor Megill, Bryan Hudson, Jared Koenig, and Joel Payamps in the bullpen, it would hardly be a surprise if Williams found himself dealt at some point this winter. MLBTR ranked Williams #4 on our recent list of the Top 35 offseason trade candidates, and even club GM Matt Arnold acknowledged last month that the Brewers will need to remain “open-minded” about the possibility of shipping Williams elsewhere this winter.

Of course, that doesn’t mean a trade is guaranteed. Even as the Brewers parted ways with Burnes, they decided to retain shortstop Willy Adames for his final season of team control. Adames figures to reject a qualifying offer and sign elsewhere this winter, but his resurgent 4.8-fWAR campaign proved crucial to the club’s offense throughout the year as the Brewers claimed their second consecutive NL Central title. If offers for Williams aren’t sufficiently enticing or the club decides Williams is too important to the club’s hopes of winning in 2025 to part ways with, it’s certainly possible he remains with the club for his final trip through arbitration before free agency.

12 Players Elect Free Agency

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As the offseason nears, a number of players elect minor league free agency each week. These players are separate from six-year MLB free agents, who’ll reach the open market five days after the conclusion of the World Series. Eligible minor leaguers can begin electing free agency as soon as the regular season wraps up. These players were all outrighted off a team’s 40-man roster during the year and have the requisite service time and/or multiple career outrights necessary to reach free agency since they weren’t added back to teams’ rosters.

Electing free agency is the anticipated outcome for these players. There’ll surely be more to test the market in the coming weeks. We’ll offer periodic updates at MLBTR. These transactions are all reflected on the MiLB.com or MLB.com logs unless otherwise stated.

Infielders

Pitchers

* Chris Cotillo of MassLive reported that Dalbec, Westbrook, and Keller have elected free agency. Francys Romero reported that Barrero has elected free agency.

Cody Bellinger Exercises Player Option With Cubs For 2025 Season

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Cody Bellinger has exercised his $27.5MM player option for the 2025 season, according to ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel and Jeff Passan (X link).  Bellinger’s three-year, $80MM deal with the Cubs last winter included opt-outs after both the 2024 and 2025 seasons, but Bellinger will pass on the first opt-out (and $2.5MM buyout) in order to remain in Chicago for at least one more year.

Bellinger also earned $27.5MM in the first year of his contract, so he’ll have a $25MM decision waiting for him with next year’s opt-out.  With $5MM attached to that opt-out, Bellinger has now guaranteed himself $60MM of that initial $80MM payday, and could potentially be in line for another long-term contract if he delivers a big 2025 season.

Of course, Bellinger thought that his big 2023 season might’ve set him up for a lucrative long-term contract last winter, yet he ended up rejoining the Cubs for that three-year pact.  Similar option-heavy shorter-term deals were also in the cards for other notable Scott Boras clients like Blake Snell, Matt Chapman, and Jordan Montgomery, leading the quartet to be known as the “Boras Four” as their trips through free agency dragged deep into Spring Training.

Bellinger signed near the end of February so he still had the benefit of most of spring camp, though injuries were probably the bigger reason why the former NL MVP’s performance dropped off from 2023.  A fractured right rib and a fractured left middle finger resulted in a couple of relatively brief trips to the injured list, though Bellinger hit a modest .266/.325/.426 with 18 home runs over 569 plate appearances.

While his 109 wRC+ was still above the league average, it also wasn’t the kind of standout platform year that would’ve made Bellinger a lock to top the remaining salary on his Cubs contract.  As a result, Bellinger was still reportedly unclear about his opt-out decision as late as September 20, and he has now chosen perhaps the slightly more cautious move of just sticking in Wrigleyville for another season.

There’s plenty of logic in Bellinger’s decision, beyond the obvious appeal of a $27.5MM payday.  After being a free agent in each of the last two offseasons, a quiet winter with his 2025 destination already established surely had some appeal for Bellinger.  He has also been vocal about how much he has enjoyed playing for the Cubs, so he’ll now stay in a familiar and welcome environment of the Friendly Confines.

From the Cubs’ perspective, they now have a pretty big salary on their books for 2025.  Of course, a one-year outlay for a player with Bellinger’s upside isn’t exactly a bad outcome, and obviously it was an outcome the front office has planned for given the three-year contract.  With Pete Crow-Armstrong now establishing himself in center field, Bellinger will probably be the Cubs’ primary right fielder next season, with Seiya Suzuki perhaps getting the bulk of DH duty.  Bellinger’s ability to also play center field and first base adds to his versatility, and gives manager Craig Counsell some flexibility in figuring out his daily lineups.

As per RosterResource, the Cubs’ projected payroll for next year up to roughly $183.5MM, factoring in Bellinger staying and Drew Smyly leaving after Chicago declined their end of the veteran pitcher’s mutual option.  This leaves the Cubs with plenty of spending space before they get up to the $241MM luxury tax threshold, provided the threshold is any sort of real barrier for ownership.  The Cubs didn’t pay the tax in any of the 2021-23 seasons but may have just barely crossed the threshold this season, depending on the league’s final calculations.

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