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Tyler Mahle

Reds Have Had Recent Trade Talks Regarding Castillo, Gray, Mahle

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TODAY: The Rangers are one of the teams who have spoken to the Reds about their starters, according to Jon Morosi (via Twitter).

NOVEMBER 29: The Reds have had talks with multiple teams about starting pitchers Tyler Mahle, Sonny Gray, and Luis Castillo, reports MLB.com’s Jon Morosi (via Twitter). Cincinnati has reportedly been open to dealing starting pitchers for weeks now, but Morosi suggests there have been recent discussions on all three from that trio.

Either Mahle (who has two years of control remaining after a breakout 2021) or Gray (who’s under contract for $10.2MM in 2022, with a $12MM club option for 2023) would figure to cost significantly less in prospect capital than would Castillo, whom Cincinnati is said to be loath to deal. Like Mahle, Castillo has two years of club control remaining. However, he also has a longer track record of consistent high-end production than Mahle, and he’s three years younger and less expensive than Gray, who is playing out the final two years of a contract extennsion.

An earlier report by Morosi had linked the Angels to Castillo, though he described those talks as “preliminary.” MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets, however, that the Angels are at the “forefront” of the Castillo push, even as the Reds have told opposing GMs they prefer to hang onto their top starter.

Just how high a price Reds GM Nick Krall is asking for Castillo remains to be seen, but any team that’s come calling will have expected it to be high. In what was actually one of his lesser statistical seasons, Castillo posted a 3.98 ERA (3.75 FIP) across 187 2/3 innings against a career ERA of 3.72 (3.76 FIP) in parts of five major league seasons — all of which were spent playing his home games in the hitter-friendly confines of Cincinnati’s Great American Ball Park. He’s also been remarkably durable, taking the ball at least 31 times in each of his full seasons (and 12 times in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season).

Castillo also closed out the year in particularly impressive fashion, recovering from an ugly April/May showing to post a 2.73 ERA and 3.34 FIP over his final 135 1/3 frames. Combine that with an eminently reasonable $7.6MM projected salary in arbitration (via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz) and an additional year of club control, through the 2023 season, and it’s easy to see why the ask on Castillo would be sky-high.

The 32-year-old Gray, meanwhile, is plenty affordable in his own right. He hasn’t replicated the 2015 form that saw him finish third in AL Cy Young voting and may never reach that level again, but the right-hander has strongly bounced back from a poor showing with the Yankees that prompted his trade to Cincinnati.

In three years with the Reds, Gray carries a 3.49 ERA with a 28.5% strikeout rate that trounces the 20.9% mark he posted in his pre-Reds career. Last season’s 4.19 ERA was more solid than stellar, clearly, but Gray was also among the best in the game in terms of limiting hard contact. Most fielding-independent metrics feel he was quite a bit better than that baseline ERA indicates.

Mahle doesn’t carry the name value that his teammates do — but he’s developed into a quality mid-rotation arm over the past two seasons. Through his past 227 2/3 frames at the MLB level, Mahle owns a 3.72 ERA with an impressive 28.1% strikeout rate against a respectable 8.9% walk rate. Walks and home runs have both been issues at times in his career, but he posted solid marks in both categories over the past two seasons — and one would imagine that a move away from Cincinnati’s Great American Ball Park could also have a beneficial impact on his home-run rate.

Swartz projects a $5.6MM salary for Mahle, so any team acquiring him would have to figure it’s picking up two years of Mahle for under a total of $15MM in salary. There’s quite a bit of surplus value there, making Mahle a more enticing trade option than most would expect. Mahle turned 27 at the end of September, so he’ll pitch nearly all of the 2022 season at that age. Teams will likely view him as a pitcher whose stock is on the rise, and some may even have designs on extending him after a trade, given his age and recent strides.

Reds Reportedly Open To Trading Sonny Gray

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The Reds are open to trading right-handed starter Sonny Gray this offseason, reports Buster Olney of ESPN (Twitter link). However, Olney hears that Cincinnati isn’t amenable to moving either of Luis Castillo or Tyler Mahle.

No deal involving Gray appears to be close, but he’s seemingly the most likely Reds starter to wind up on the move at some point. That’s not especially surprising, since Gray’s also the most expensive of their top trio. Cincinnati has opened the offseason scaling back expenditures, and general manager Nick Krall has spoken about “aligning (the team’s) payroll to its resources.” Early reports suggested a Castillo deal could be part of those efforts, but Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reported last week that it was doubtful any deal involving the 28-year-old would come to fruition.

Gray looks like a fairly straightforward trade candidate as he enters the final guaranteed year of his contract. He’s slated to earn around $10.67MM in 2022 and remains under club control for 2023 via $12.5MM club option. (Gray would also receive a $1MM assignment bonus in the event of a trade). That’s a reasonable sum for a pitcher of Gray’s caliber, but it also makes him Cincinnati’s fourth-highest paid player. And the three players set to earn loftier sums (Joey Votto, Mike Moustakas and Eugenio Suárez) wouldn’t be easy to move. Votto’s a franchise icon who has full no-trade protection; Moustakas and Suárez are coming off bad 2021 seasons and wouldn’t figure to hold much appeal to other clubs.

On the other hand, Gray offers a blend of fairly substantial but still team-friendly salary that could make a trade realistic. He’s coming off a season in which he posted a 4.19 ERA/3.85 SIERA across 135 1/3 innings. That’s decent mid-rotation production, and Gray was even better over his first couple seasons in Cincinnati. Despite pitching in one of the league’s more hitter-friendly home environments, the right-hander reeled off 231 1/3 innings of 3.07 ERA ball from 2019-20.

Gray has backed up those solid results with strong underlying numbers. While he typically runs walk rates a bit higher than the league average, he also generates an enviable combination of punchouts and grounders. Gray has posted above-average strikeout and ground-ball percentages in each of the past three seasons. His 27% and 47.2% marks in those categories in 2021 were his lowest since 2018, but even those were both markedly above the respective league averages (22.6% and 42.7%) for starting pitchers.

Installing Gray into the middle of a rotation should have plenty of appeal around the league. The Dodgers were already rumored to have interest in that possibility this offseason, and others would join them if the Reds’ front office began to discuss trade frameworks in earnest.

Both Castillo and Mahle could bring even greater returns, as they’re arguably superior pitchers who are more affordable. Like Gray, both righties are controllable for two more seasons, but they’re proceeding through arbitration. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Castillo for a $7.6MM salary in 2022; Mahle is projected to bring in around $5.6MM. Both pitchers would stand to earn a final raise in 2023, although it’s unlikely either would match or top the value of Gray’s $12.5MM option that year.

Nevertheless, it doesn’t seem the Reds are preparing to tear the roster down completely. Coming off an 83-win season with a strong core led by their talented rotation, it’s not implausible that Cincinnati could compete next season. A frugal offseason would certainly make building a strong roster more difficult for Krall and his front office, particularly with middle-of-the-order presence Nick Castellanos likely to sign elsewhere as a free agent. A returning group including Castillo, Mahle, Votto, Jesse Winker, Jonathan India and Tyler Stephenson certainly has promise, though. Speculatively speaking, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them target near-MLB players in potential discussions involving Gray to help thread that needle of remaining competitive while cutting costs.

Players Avoiding Arbitration: 1/15/21

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The deadline to exchange arbitration figures is today at 1pm ET. As of this morning, there were 125 arbitration-eligible players who’d yet to agree to terms on their contract for the upcoming 2021 season. Arbitration is muddier than ever before thanks to the shortened 2020 schedule, which most believe will lead to record number of arb hearings this winter. Be that as it may, it’s still reasonable to expect dozens of contractual agreements to filter in over the next couple of hours.

We’ll highlight some of the more high-profile cases in separate posts with more in-depth breakdowns, but the majority of today’s dealings will be smaller-scale increases that don’t radically alter a team’s payroll or a player’s trade candidacy. As such, we’ll just run through most of today’s agreements in this post.

I’ve embedded MLBTR’s 2021 Arbitration Tracker in the post (those in the mobile app or viewing on mobile web will want to turn their phones sideways). Our tracker can be sorted by team, by service time and/or by Super Two status, allowing users to check the status on whichever groups of players they like. You can also check out Matt Swartz’s projected arbitration salaries for this year’s class, and we’ll do a quick sentence on each player’s agreement at the bottom of this post as well, with the most recent agreements sitting atop the list.

Today’s Agreements (chronologically, newest to oldest)

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NL Notes: Cubs, Bryant, Heyward, Reds, Mahle, Nationals, Castro

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The Cubs aren’t yet sure how David Ross’ style as a tactician will differ from his predecessor, but Ross’ decisions are starting to trickle in and lend some clarity to the Cubs’ 2020 season. For starters, Kris Bryant as the leadoff man does not feel like an experiment – it’s happening. Ross likes Bryant’s speed and baserunning ability, and to his credit, there’s really nothing to dislike about Bryant in the leadoff spot. It does create questions further down the order, but coming off a season in which their leadoff men were last in the league with a .294 OBP, that’s a tradeoff they’re willing to make, per Mark Gonzalez of the Chicago Tribune. The other major decision passed down today was that Jason Heyward would remain in right field as often as possible. Given Heyward’s tremendous defensive abilities and a wRC+ that’s been at league average over the last two years, and it makes some sense to profile Heyward as a centerfielder. He’s more comfortable in right, however, and his glove does play as a genuine asset there. Let’s check in on a couple other National League clubs…

  • Tyler Mahle will be more than okay coming out of the bullpen for the Reds if that means staying in the big leagues, per MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon. In the rotation last year, Mahle went 3-12 with a 5.14 ERA/4.66 FIP across 129 2/3 innings in 25 starts. According to Mahle, his biggest problem was the lack of an effective put away breaking ball, something he’s working on by adding a slider. There might be something to Mahle’s analysis, as his curveball induced a 26.6 whiff%. More to the point might be his 7.11 ERA against left-handed hitters, though it’s part and parcel of the same issue, likely.
  • Starlin Castro is energized by the opportunity to play for a contender again, per Sam Fortier of the Washington Post. Between the changes that Castro made to his approach in the second half of last year, and his excitement over playing in games of consequence again, the Nationals are finding reasons to believe in Castro’s potential to make up for some of the offense lost in the wake of Anthony Rendon’s departure. Castro’s a difficult player to pin down in terms of ability, but he is a four-time All-Star entering his age-30 season, and before the terms of his current two-year deal run out, he may even cross the 2,000 hit threshold.

Reds Activate Tyler Mahle, Place Jesse Winker On IL

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The Reds have activated right-hander Tyler Mahle from the injured list and sent outfielder Jesse Winker to the IL (retroactive to Monday) with a cervical strain, the team announced. Mahle will head to Triple-A Louisville.

Mahle missed just over a month with a hamstring injury. Prior to that, the 24-year-old gave the Reds 102 1/3 innings and 19 starts of 4.93 ERA/4.31 FIP ball. Those numbers don’t look impressive, though Mahle also recorded 9.32 K/9 against 2.29 BB/9 and posted a solid 45.6 percent groundball rate at the same time. He’ll hope that production, not to mention whatever he does the rest of the season (if he returns to the Reds), will help him earn a place in the club’s rotation next year. The group figures to welcome back Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray, Trevor Bauer and Anthony DeSclafani then, while Kevin Gausman could join Mahle in pushing for the last spot.

Winker, meanwhile, represents another of Cincinnati’s promising young players. In his most extensive big league action to date, the 26-year-old has slashed .269/.357/.473 (113 wRC+) with 16 home runs, 38 unintentional walks and 60 strikeouts over 384 plate appearances this season. The lefty-swinging Winker hasn’t been a legitimate option this year versus southpaws, though, as he has hit just .163/.280/.163 against them in 50 PA.

Quick Hits: Scherzer, F. Vazquez, Broxton, Reds

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The Nationals are expecting ace Max Scherzer to return from the injured list by Thursday or Friday, Byron Kerr of MASNsports.com reports. Scherzer, out since July 13 with right shoulder bursitis, threw a full bullpen session Monday and offered an encouraging assessment afterward, per Kerr. The Nationals have maintained a playoff spot during Scherzer’s absence, but the three-time Cy Young winner is their MVP and someone they likely can’t go without for much longer. The 34-year-old Scherzer was amid another all-world season before hit hit the shelf, with a 2.30 ERA/2.02 FIP, 12.6 K/9, 1.6 BB/9 and 5.5 WAR in 129 1/3 innings.

More on a few other clubs…

  • Back on July 1, Pirates general manager Neal Huntington downplayed the possibility of trading closer Felipe Vazquez. The Bucs have lost 10 of 16 since then, putting them six games out of playoff position, but Huntington’s mind hasn’t changed. He once again made it clear Sunday that the Pirates expect to push for contention in the near future with Vazquez on their roster (via Adam Berry of MLB.com). On a potential Vazquez trade, Huntington said: “If we were expecting to lose 100 games next year, then it’s a different approach. But our expectation is to be right back in this — if we don’t get there this year — to be right back in this next year, and to have a guy like that in the back end is really important.” The Pirates haven’t made the playoffs since 2015, the year before they acquired the electric Vazquez, and appear as if they’ll extend their drought this season. Vazquez is controllable through 2023, giving the Pirates time to take advantage of his presence; on the other hand, Vazquez’s team-friendly contract is one of the reasons he’d bring back so much in a trade. Huntington appears to have no interest in giving up one of the greatest acquisitions of his tenure, though.
  • When the Orioles designated center fielder Keon Broxton for assignment Sunday, manager Brandon Hyde suggested the O’s would lose him, saying (via Joe Trezza of MLB.com): “I’m hoping he’ll get picked up by somebody, especially someone who needs outfield defense and baserunning for the postseason. I wish Keon the best.” It appears Broxton will indeed end up elsewhere in the coming days, as Trezza reports “a few teams” have checked in on the 29-year-old. Broxton can run and defend, as Hyde noted, though horrid hitting has torpedoed his value in 2019. Broxton has struck out in 43 percent of his 165 plate appearances, thus limiting him to a .184/.244/.289 line (42 wRC+). With no minor league options left, both the Mets and Orioles have given up on the once-promising Broxton this season.
  • The Reds put right-hander Tyler Mahle on the injured list Monday with a left hamstring strain and recalled fellow righty Sal Romano from Triple-A Louisville. The 24-year-old Mahle’s IL placement came after a pair of rough starts that saw him allow a combined 14 runs (10 earned) in 9 2/3 innings in losses to Colorado and St. Louis. Mahle has now mustered a 4.93 ERA in 102 1/3 innings, though he has also logged a much better 4.32 FIP, posted 9.32 K/9 against 2.29 BB/9 and notched a 45.6 percent groundball rate.

Reds Reassign Nick Senzel To Minor League Camp

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The Reds announced a slew of players who’ve been reassigned to minor league camp Friday, headlined by top prospect Nick Senzel. Cincinnati’s decision to do so has prompted a response from Senzel’s agent, Joel Wolfe of Wasserman, who spoke harshly of the organization’s decision to ESPN’s Jeff Passan (Twitter link).

“I don’t believe I’ve ever made public statements on this issue in my career,” said Wolfe, “but I feel compelled to do so in this case where it feels like a simply egregious case of service-time manipulation. We are well aware of the mandate from ownership for the Reds to win this year — and this seems to fly in the face of it. The NL Central was decided by one game last year. Every game matters. This is a shortsighted move that may be frugal now but could cost them dearly later.”

Reds president of baseball operations Dick Williams, unsurprisingly, told C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic that the decision was not tied to service time (Twitter link).

The Reds’ Senzel decision is, at the very least, more defensible than some recent service-driven minor league assignments (e.g. Kris Bryant, Eloy Jimenez, Ronald Acuna). Senzel is learning a new position on the fly after being moved from the infield to center field, and injuries limited him to just 44 games last year while also preventing him from taking place in the Arizona Fall League.

That said, Senzel is hitting .308/.300/.462 with six doubles and four stolen bases in 39 spring at-bats thus far, and he batted .310/.378/.509 as a 22-year-old in his first exposure to Triple-A pitching last season. There’s an argument  that Senzel’s bat is ready for big league work, and the timing of his promotion to the big leagues will be an interesting situation to monitor in the coming weeks. The Reds would only need to keep Senzel in the minors for just over two weeks in order to secure an extra year of club control over the 2016 No. 2 overall draft pick.

Regardless of whether the move is service-driven, the Reds are well within their rights to make it and are arguably even wise to do so. The fact that they’re hoping to be more competitive and contend for a postseason berth in 2019, as Wolfe suggested, does muddy the waters a bit, and the Reds will unquestionably receive their share of criticism if they call Senzel up early in the season and narrowly miss the playoffs.

However, the current service time constraints were collectively bargained long ago and were not addressed in the latest wave of negotiations between the league and the MLBPA, thus maintaining a clumsy and antiquated system that is a disservice to virtually every party other than ownership. The game’s best young players are often held down longer than need be, slowing their path to significant earnings, while fans are deprived from seeing rising stars on the game’s biggest stage. Even front offices are left to make thinly veiled and often transparent statements to their fans, knowing full well that they’re setting themselves up to incur an angry backlash. It’s an out-of-date mechanism that would be better served to be restructured, and it’s likely to be a focal point as the league and union begin preliminary discussions well in advance of the next wave of the current CBA’s expiration.

In other Reds news, Cincinnati skipper David Bell announced that right-hander Tyler Mahle will open the season as the team’s fifth starter while Alex Wood heals up from back spasms that have plagued him throughout the spring (Twitter link via Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer). Wood’s injury isn’t expected to sideline him long, so he may only be in line for a small handful of starts before either shifting to a bullpen role or heading back to Triple-A to continue making regular starts.

Reds Select Tim Federowicz, Gabby Guerrero

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The Reds announced today that they have selected the contracts of catcher Tim Federowicz and outfielder Gabby Guerrero. To create 40-man space, the organization recalled righty Keury Mella and placed him on the 60-day DL.

That pair of newcomers to the MLB roster will be joined by righty Tyler Mahle. The well-regarded young hurler has already spent most of the season in the majors, of course.

Federowicz joined the Reds earlier this year on a minors pact after he was cut loose from the Astros. The 31-year-old will now have seen time with five MLB clubs over parts of seven seasons. Though he hasn’t hit all that well thus far at the Triple-A level in the Cincinnati organization, and is a marginal hitter in his limited experience at the game’s highest level, Federowicz will provide some welcome catching depth down the stretch. He’ll be eligible for arbitration at season’s end, though it stands to reason that he’ll be allowed to test the open market.

As for Guerrero, he originally came to the Cincinnati organization on a waiver claim, then was non-tendered and re-signed in the winter of 2016. Today’s news means that he’ll beat his cousin, elite Blue Jays prospect Vladimir Guerrero Jr., to the big leagues. Of course, Gabby is now 24 years of age, so he had more than a five-year head start. He earned his way up after a solid year in the upper minors, during which he slashed .293/.328/.474 with 19 home runs in 539 plate appearances.

Central Notes: Suarez, Mahle, Romano, Garrett, Kirby, Tigers

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Mark Sheldon of MLB.com posits that the Reds’ extension of Eugenio Suarez is a sign that the club is making an effort to keep a young core of players together for the foreseeable future, alongside potential future Hall-of-Famer Joey Votto. In the companion video, GM Dick Williams speaks highly of Suarez, particularly in regards to his defensive capabilities. “This is one of the premier defenders in the league,” says Williams. “At third base he’s established himself as one of the best young players in the league… he’s an offensive force, defensive force, leader in the clubhouse, say no more.” It’s interesting that Williams so specifically refers to Suarez as a third baseman, given the speculation that the former shortstop might slide back to his old position to make room for top prospect Nick Senzel. The GM’s comments seem to suggest the possibility that the destination of Senzel’s path to the majors isn’t the hot corner.

More from some non-coastal ballclubs…

  • In other Reds news, the starting rotation picture is beginning to gain some clarity beyond Homer Bailey and Luis Castillo, who appear to be the only locks following injuries to Anthony DeSclafani and Brandon Finnegan. Per a tweet from C. Trent Rosencrans of The Athletic, manager Bryan Price says that Sal Romano and Tyler Mahle “may have separated themselves from the pack a little bit” in the rotation competition. A piece by John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer contains quotes that line up with this tweet, perhaps also suggesting that lefty Amir Garrett is tabbed for a spot if Finnegan’s injury sidelines him to start the season. “With the way Romano and Mahle have thrown in camp, they’ve certainly put themselves in the lead,” Price said, via Fay’s article. “I think with the way Amir has thrown has created an opportunity to jump in there in the rotation and get a start against the Diamondbacks and get stretched out.”
  • Brewers prospect Nathan Kirby is finally healthy and determined to establish himself as a valuable pitcher, writes Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel. Rosiak describes Kirby as something of a “forgotten man” in Milwaukee’s system for the past two and a half years. The 24-year-old was drafted 40th overall by the organization back in 2015, but has since undergone two surgeries on his left elbow (a Tommy John operation and another for ulnar neuritis). Though Kirby ranked near the bottom on most Milwaukee prospect lists, he was a large part of the University of Virginia’s first College World Series title, and would seem to have the potential to rise through the Brewers’ farm system quickly if he can stay healthy this season.
  • Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press tweets that the Tigers remain on the lookout for veteran insurance for their starting rotation. The organization is reportedly concerned about the dependability of its starting rotation as a whole; their current options include Michael Fulmer, Francisco Liriano, Mike Fiers, Jordan Zimmerman, Matt Boyd and Daniel Norris. Alex Cobb tops the list of available free agent starters, while Scott Feldman, Trevor Cahill and Clay Buchholz are some other interesting arms that remain on the market.

Minor MLB Transactions: 8/27/17

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Sunday’s minor moves from around baseball:

  • The Reds selected the contract of right-hander Tyler Mahle before Sunday’s game against the Pirates and optioned fellow righty Luke Farrell to Triple-A Louisville (updated depth chart). The 22-year-old Mahle, who made his big league debut with a start on Sunday, earned his way to the majors with a combined 2.06 ERA, 8.6 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9 in 144 1/3 innings between the Double-A and Triple-A levels this season. Baseball America (No. 78), FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen (No. 85) and MLB.com (No. 86) each regard Mahle as one of the sport’s 100 best prospects. The 2013 seventh-round pick has a mid-rotation ceiling, per MLB.com, which notes that he’s a “command and control specialist” who brings a low-90s fastball that can touch 96 mph and average secondary offerings to the table.
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