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Nationals’ Owner Lerner On Martinez, Rendon

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The Nationals enter tonight’s NLCS Game 4 up 3-0 on St. Louis and turning the ball over to Patrick Corbin as they look to complete the sweep. Seeing as only one team has ever blown a 3-0 series lead in MLB history, it’s little surprise Nats’ managing principal owner Mark Lerner is happy with his team’s position. Lerner talked with reporters (including Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post and Mark Zuckerman of MASN) about his club’s “very special” position and fielded questions about the team’s manager and best player.

Interestingly, Lerner told reporters that firing manager Dave Martinez “never crossed (his) mind,” even amidst the club’s nightmarish start. Despite entering the year with high expectations, Washington started the season 19-31, leading to some speculation about Martinez’s future. After all, the Nationals have something of a reputation for being quick to pull the plug on managers. Martinez’s predecessor, Dusty Baker, wasn’t offered a contract extension after the 2017 season despite overseeing a division winner that year, with general manager Mike Rizzo saying at the time that “winning a lot of regular season games and winning divisions is not enough.” It stood to reason that Martinez could’ve been in some hot water after the club missed the playoffs in 2018 and got off to a slow start, so it’s interesting to hear that ownership was never considering a change.

Certainly, any speculation about Martinez’s job status has gone up in flames over the past few months. Washington’s spectacular second half got them to 93 wins regardless, and Martinez’s club is now on the doorstep of the franchise’s first pennant. That’s in no small part to the efforts of Anthony Rendon. The superstar third baseman put up borderline MVP numbers in the regular season, slashing .319/.412/.598 (154 wRC+) with his trademark elite defense at the hot corner. He’s picked up where he left off in the postseason, pairing with Juan Soto to form a two-man wrecking crew in the middle of the Nats’ order.

With Rendon a few weeks from becoming baseball’s most coveted position player free agent, Lerner predictably reiterated that the Nationals would love to keep him in D.C. “We certainly want to keep him. That’s 110 percent,” Lerner said of Rendon. “It’s really in Tony’s and his family’s hands at this point. They have to decide what they want to do. He’s earned that right as a free agent. It couldn’t happen to a better guy. We love him to death.”

“Good team wants to keep its best player” is hardly eye-popping news, and we know the Nats already floated an extension offer to the 29 year-old in the range of $210-215MM, although it’s possible deferrals could’ve held the contract’s actual value a bit below that figure. As Lerner acknowledged, though, there’s little reason for Rendon and his family not to explore their options in free agency at this point.

That’s not to say Rendon’s certainly leaving Washington; he’ll just assuredly speak with other teams as he and his family attempt to find their best fit. Lerner didn’t discuss specifically to what extent the organization would be willing to go to retain Rendon- in all likelihood, even the Nationals don’t know what their exact breaking point would be just yet- but it seems the club will be in the familiar position of lurking in the background while the face of their franchise tests the open market.

Nationals Notes: Rendon, Robles, Taylor

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Here’s the latest from the Nationals, who take a 2-0 series lead into tomorrow’s Game Three of the NLCS….

  • Could Anthony Rendon be open to the idea of a relatively short-term contract for a high average annual average?  “Some friends of Rendon believe that he’s more interested in a shorter-term deal…because he might not be devoted to the idea of playing for as long as he possibly can,” ESPN’s Buster Olney writes, which Olney feels could make Rendon even more of an attractive target for a team like the Dodgers.  Los Angeles reportedly had interest in such a short-term deal with Bryce Harper last winter, though such efforts fell short since Harper was specifically looking for a very long-term contract.  A premium free agent like Rendon showing interest in only a very pricey deal of four or five years would be a fascinating wrinkle, as clubs would no longer have to worry about a late-30’s decline if Rendon is only under contract through his age-33 or age-34 season.  (The third baseman turns 30 next June.)  It could also create a ripple effect for future superstar free agents around the game, and the players’ union may also not be pleased at one of its top names taking what teams would certainly adopt as a precedent-setting model.  Then again, Rendon’s agent Scott Boras has long aimed to garner maximum money at maximum years for his clients, and Rendon reportedly already turned down a seven-year extension offer from the Nats worth $210-$215MM.
  • Victor Robles is expected to take part in batting practice and some running drills on Monday, manager Davey Martinez told reporters (including MASNsports.com’s Byron Kerr).  Robles also did some running today and underwent treatment on his bothersome right hamstring, which was tweaked in Game Two of the NLDS.  The injury has kept Robles out of action, though there is some optimism he will be able to return for Monday’s game.  “I’m not going to anticipate anything until he comes in tomorrow. But he’s progressing and hopefully he will be ready tomorrow,” Martinez said.
  • Robles will regain the regular center field job when he is ready to play, Martinez noted.  This will send Michael A. Taylor back to the Nats’ bench, though Taylor has performed well (.300/.333/.450) in 21 plate appearances since filling in for Robles.  It marked a nice turn-around for Taylor, the Washington Post’s Sam Fortier writes, as Taylor’s early-season struggles led to a demotion to Double-A, before he finally got his swing back on track in the final days of his minor league assignment.  “I was finally able to get that feeling.  I just tried to repeat over and over,” Taylor said about a hot streak that saw him post a 1.191 OPS over his last 52 PA in the minors.  Though he was at one point a top prospect and seemed to be breaking out at the MLB level as recently as the 2017 season, Taylor has been inconsistent over his six big league seasons, but now stands as a very valuable bench asset as the Nationals continue their postseason run.

Nationals Notes: Hudson, Anibal

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The Nationals achieved a 2-0 series lead over the Cardinals in the NLCS on Saturday, with the last out of their 3-1 victory being recorded by pitcher Daniel Hudson. It also marked the culmination of a whirlwind week for the righty Hudson, who caught a fair amount of flack for missing the team’s Game 1 matchup–despite the fact that his absence was a result of the birth of his third daughter.  The modest firestorm surrounding Hudson’s prioritization of family values was, perhaps as much as anything, a reflection of how quickly social media can convert molehills into mountains in this day and age.

Hudson, at least, isn’t losing perspective on the situation, as he demonstrated to Brittany Ghiroli of The Athletic (link). “I went from not having a job on March 21st to this huge national conversation on family values going into the playoffs,” Hudson explained to Ghiroli. “Life comes at you fast. Man, I don’t know how that happened and how I became the face for whatever conversation was going on.” Although it’s tempting for many to view ballplayers as mercenaries singularly focused on winning games, Hudson’s comments provide a reminder that the men of Major League Baseball are, first and foremost, men–with all of the same personal issues and considerations that the rest of us workaday humans also experience. We at MLBTR, for one, extend sincere congratulations to Hudson’s family on the birth of their new baby girl Millie. After settling for a $1.5MM guarantee from the Blue Jays last year, Hudson will hit the open market this offseason after pitching to a 2.47 ERA across 73 innings in 2019; it stands to reason that he should be able to secure a new guarantee that will leave plenty left over for diaper money.

More from the buzzing environment surrounding D.C.’s team…

  • In another Ghiroli piece, the unique career of Anibal Sanchez is appreciated in the afterglow of his dominant Game 1 NLCS showing (link). As Ghiroli points out, Sanchez has operated in familiar territory in 2019–as the often-overlooked “fourth starter” operating behind a trio of fearsome frontline aces. During his time in Detroit, Sanchez was something of an afterthought in the shadow of three guys named Verlander, Price, and Scherzer, and he’s taken a similar position in D.C. as the elder statesman of a staff featuring Stephen Strasburg, Patrick Corbin, and Max Scherzer (again). If Sanchez was feeling bashful about not receiving shine in the leadup to this postseason, he didn’t show it on Friday: in a rousing performance that saw him deploy pitches anywhere from 66 to 93 mph, Sanchez became the first pitcher in LCS history to throw at least 7 2/3 innings and not allow more than one walk and a hit. Interestingly, Ghiroli notes that the pitcher nearly retired in the winter of 2018, even going so far as to tell his agent that he would hang up his spikes if he didn’t receive a contract offer by his birthday on Feb 27–the Twins eventually came calling with just a few days to spare, and the Nationals of 2019 are thankful that the rest might end up being postseason history.

 

NLCS Injury Updates: Suzuki, Gomes, Hudson, Robles

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Kurt Suzuki has been questionable since a fastball from Walker Buehler glanced off his arm and into his forehead, prompting an early exit from game five of the NLDS. Still, Suzuki is ready to return for game two, and he’ll be behind the dish to catch Max Scherzer in St. Louis this afternoon, per Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post. The Nationals are up 1-0 in the NLCS, but they’re not without questions heading into game two…

  • Yan Gomes started more games during the regular season than Suzuki, and he only caught Anibal Sanchez twice during the first 162, but he put together a stellar game in Suzuki’s stead last night. Not only did Gomes guide Sanchez and Sean Doolittle in their one-hit effort, but he also reached base three times and knocked in the game’s first run. The Nationals will have a decision to make on Gomes in the offseason regarding a $9MM club option. Gomes was one of the NL’s worst offensive performers for an uncomfortably large chunk of the season, but he hit his stride late in September when an injury to Suzuki forced Gomes to be an every-down bellcow. Suzuki will return at age-37 to play a part in the Nats’ 2020 catching picture, but after 70 starts this season, it’s likely the Nats will again need someone to carry the brunt of the catching burden. Gomes clocked out with a .223/.316/.389 batting line with 12 home runs, but he better controls the run game than Suzuki and had better marks as a receiver overall. The Nats will have upwards of $100MM to play with this winter, so unless they have a clear upgrade in mind, there’s a decent chance they pick up that option heading into the offseason.
  • Anibal Sanchez put his stamp on the NLCS in a big way last night, providing 7 ⅔ huge innings of one-hit ball for the Nationals. Cardinals hitters managed an average exit velocity of just 83.1 mph off of Sanchez on the night. The length provided by Sanchez was all the more crucial on a night when they were without their most integral reliever. That Daniel Hudson is a lynchpin reliever in the championship series is amazing in and of itself, but there was near panic in DC when it was announced he was to miss game one for the birth of his third child. It all worked out for the best – healthy baby girl, game one victory – and Hudson will be in St. Louis tonight to relieve his 9th-inning tag-team partner in Doolittle, who closed yesterday’s game with a four-out save. Crazy as this sounds, all but 2 of the 118 outs recorded in wins by the Nationals this postseason have come from Hudson, Doolittle, or the the Nats four-piece rotation, tweets Dougherty. 
  • Victor Robles may return to the lineup soon, per MLB.com’s Jamal Collier and Anne Rogers. He will not, however, be in the starting lineup for game two, tweets MASN’s Mark Zuckerman. Michael A. Taylor has been a surprisingly able replacement, though he did finally snap an 8-game postseason hitting streak with an 0-4 night in game one. Robles certainly provides more upside, and he’s arguably the best defensive centerfielder in baseball, but with so much of his game speed-dependent, there’s little reason to rush him back until his hamstring is healthy enough to be at full speed.

Nationals Announce NLCS Roster

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The Nationals have released their roster for the club’s first-ever National League Championship Series. It contains a few wrinkles …

In particular, the team made some notable changes in the bullpen. Key late-inning righty Daniel Hudson will begin the series on paternity leave, replaced temporarily by Wander Suero. Once Hudson is ready to return to duty — he can take between one and three days — Suero will depart.

The Nats have made one series-long bullpen swap. Southpaw Roenis Elias, another important deadline pickup, is healthy enough to take part. He’ll be joined by Javy Guerra in a new middle-relief mix, with Hunter Strickland bumped out of the picture.

Here’s the full 25-man unit:

Right-Handed Pitchers

Left-Handed Pitchers

Infielders

Outfielders

Catchers

With just eleven pitchers, the Nats are again going to be banking on heavy contributions from their starters. Voth will help provide length if there’s a need for a volume of relief innings. Strickland’s two poor innings in the NLDS sealed his fate. It’s still a bit surprising to see the Nats unwilling to rely upon Suero for more than a placeholding spot; he has been effective against hitters of both hands and carried strong peripherals, while Guerra was not terribly effective this year. Elias’s ability to contribute may be a key aspect of the Nationals’ ability to hang with the Cardinals late in tight games.

The approach does leave the club an exceptionally deep bench to work with, increasing the match-up possibilities for late innings. There’ll be bench bats, pinch-running possibilities, and defensive replacements to call upon as needed.

Notably, the Nats feel good enough about the health of Suzuki to carry him and withhold a third catcher. Raudy Read would likely have been the alternative. Suzuki left Washington’s decisive game 5 after a pitch struck his hand and ricocheted into his face. He isn’t in the lineup tonight, though. Neither is Robles, who is still dealing with a hamstring injury suffered during the series with the Dodgers.

Latest On Ryan Zimmerman’s Future

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Longtime National Ryan Zimmerman is slated to reach free agency after the season, but it doesn’t appear he’ll retire or wind up in another uniform in 2020. Odds are Zimmerman and the Nationals will hammer out a new agreement prior to next season, Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com suggests.

The Nationals already control Zimmerman for another year, but they’re sure to decline his $18MM club option in favor of a $2MM buyout. That’ll bring an official end to the six-year, $100MM extension the Nationals gave Zimmerman in 2012 when he was their franchise player and one of the premier third basemen in the game. Unfortunately, injuries have been an all-too-common problem for Zimmerman since his deal kicked in during the 2014 season – the last time he lined up at the hot corner.

Zimmerman transitioned to first base in 2015 and has since offered up-and-down production, with 2019 sure to count among the least effective campaigns of his career. The 35-year-old is coming off yet another injury-limited regular season, in which he amassed 190 plate appearances and hit .257/.321/.415 with six home runs.

Zimmerman did come up with a heroic swing in the Nationals’ Game 4 win over the Dodgers in the NLDS, though it’s still fair to say his output has typically fallen short since the club made a long-term commitment to him. Nevertheless, the affinity he and the Nationals have for each other seems as if it will pave the way to another contract, per Zuckerman.

A Nat since they chose him fourth in the 2005 draft, Zimmerman told Zuckerman his time in Washington has been “special,” and added “my family’s close. My wife is from here. So I’m lucky: I get to see my kids for 81 games. A lot of guys are on the road. So I look at it more as I’m lucky to be in this situation. I think a lot of guys would love to have this situation, but don’t really have the opportunity that I’ve had. So I think I feel more lucky than anything.”

Regardless of whether Zimmerman does remain a National, he’ll go into the offseason as an obvious candidate for an inexpensive short-term deal. At the moment, he’s one of a few Nationals first base options with uncertain futures ahead. Matt Adams also has a club option (for $4MM), but the team seems likely to buy him out for $1MM. Meanwhile, Washington’s control over soon-to-be free agents Howie Kendrick and Gerardo Parra is about to expire.

MLBTR Poll: Who’s Going To The NLCS?

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If you like baseball (you’re reading this, so you probably do), Wednesday evening already looks rather promising. All four of the National League’s remaining playoff teams will square off then in win-or-go-home contests to conclude their thrilling NLDS matchups. The top-seeded Dodgers will take on the Nationals in Los Angeles, while the Braves will host the Cardinals.

To many, a third straight pennant for the perennially dominant Dodgers looked like a foregone conclusion entering the playoffs. But the 106-win club has had its hands full with the Nationals, a 93-69 team that needed a miraculous comeback over the Brewers in the wild-card game just to reach the NLDS. The Dodgers have led this series twice (1-0 and 2-1), but they’ve been unable to stamp out the Nationals, thanks in part to the heroics of Washington co-aces Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg. The latter’s slated to take the ball in Game 5 against Walker Buehler, who has supplanted Hall of Famer Clayton Kershaw as LA’s most valuable starter. Buehler put forth his latest ace-caliber effort in the Dodgers’ Game 1 win last Thursday, when he fired six scoreless, one-hit innings.

In Atlanta, the Braves will send Mike Foltynewicz to the mound to battle Jack Flaherty, who – like Buehler – has burst on the scene as an elite young arm. Foltynewicz entered the season as one of the Braves’ clear-cut top starters, though it nonetheless may seem hard to believe they’re turning to him with their season on the line. After all, the team did demote the 28-year-old to the minors in late June on the heels of a horrid few months. To his credit, however, Foltynewicz has rebounded since his early August return, and he continued to roll with seven shutout innings during a Game 2 victory over the Flaherty-led Cards. He’ll again contend with a St. Louis offense that has gotten exceptional production from Paul Goldschmidt and Marcell Ozuna in the series.

The 23-year-old Flaherty will deal with an Atlanta club that has seen outfielder Ronald Acuna Jr. continue to stake his claim as one of the sport’s up-and-coming superstars in October. Runs may be hard to come by for Acuna & Co., though, as Flaherty hasn’t yielded more than three in a start since July 2. Dating back to then, Flaherty has given up a ridiculously low 14 earned runs in 113 1/3 innings and 17 starts.

Of course, it would be foolish to only mention the starters who are lined up for these two games. With all four clubs’ seasons on the line, they’ll likely be in all-hands-on-deck mode (or something close to it) as they attempt to reach the final round of the NL playoffs. As is often the case in the postseason, the teams’ bullpens will probably play integral roles in the outcomes. Which clubs do you expect to advance Wednesday?

(Poll link for app users)

(Poll link for app users)

Cole Vs. Rendon: Who Will Sign The Bigger Contract?

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A year ago at this time, the baseball world was gearing up to see outfielder Bryce Harper and infielder Manny Machado reach free agency. They represented a pair of rare 26-year-old franchise players who were on the cusp of hitting the open market, and there was little doubt they’d end up with a couple of the richest contracts in the history of the sport. While the two wound up sitting on the market for longer than some may have expected, they ultimately did score the largest deals ever awarded in free agency before the offseason concluded. Harper left the Nationals for the Phillies’ 13-year, $330MM offer, while Machado waved goodbye to the Dodgers after a short stay in LA and signed with the Padres for 10 years and $300MM.

It wasn’t surprising that Harper and Machado reeled in $300MM-plus guarantees last winter, whereas there’s little chance of a free agent approaching that figure this offseason. That’s not a knock on the absolute best players in the upcoming class, though, as Astros right-hander Gerrit Cole and Nationals third baseman/ex-Harper teammate Anthony Rendon do have cases to collect massive paydays. In fact, both players – a pair of Scott Boras clients – have strong arguments to reach or exceed $200MM in guarantees on their forthcoming contracts.

Cole, who turned 29 last month, could not only win the AL Cy Young after putting up a 2.50 ERA/2.64 FIP with a ridiculous 326 strikeouts in 212 regular-season 1/3 innings, but the ace workhorse may also aid his cause with an epic playoff run. Cole looked to be setting himself up for a postseason in his start this past Saturday. He ran roughshod over the Rays in 7 2/3 scoreless innings, striking out 15 hitters, issuing one walk and allowing four hits during a 3-1 victory.

Regardless of how the rest of the postseason goes for Cole, Boras will likely try to get his client a pact in the vicinity of the all-time record for a pitcher. That honor has belonged to Red Sox lefty David Price since December 2015, when he inked a seven-year, $217MM contract as a free agent. Nationals righty Max Scherzer, another Boras client, isn’t far behind on the seven-year, $210MM deal he scored via the open market the winter before Price landed his accord.

Indications are that Rendon, who’s also 29, has already turned down money in the Price/Scherzer neighborhood in advance of his much-anticipated foray into free agency. Rendon spurned a seven-year, $210MM-$215MM offer (with deferrals) from Washington, perhaps in hopes of signing a contract that’s closer to the seven-year, $234MM extension Rockies third baseman Nolan Arenado received before this season. While Rendon, who finally earned his first All-Star nod this year, is neither as decorated nor as young as the four-time All-Star Arenado (28), there’s a legitimate case he’s the superior player.

Dating back to 2017, which is admittedly an arbitrary cutoff point, Rendon ranks fourth among position players in fWAR (19.9; Arenado’s ninth with 17.4), trailing only MVP winners Mike Trout, Mookie Betts and Christian Yelich. And Rendon seems likely to garner serious consideration for this year’s NL MVP honors, having slashed a career-best .319/.412/.598 with personal highs in home runs (34) and fWAR (7.0) across 646 regular-season plate appearances.

It may be a long shot, but we could see Cole and Rendon square off against one another if in the Fall Classic in the next few weeks. No matter how the season ends for their teams, though, which of the two stars do you expect to emerge from the winter with the bigger contract?

(Poll link for app users)

NL Notes: Robles, Wainwright, Wood

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On a quiet transactional night in MLB, we’ll take a look at a few playoff and offseason related matters from the National League.

  • Nationals center fielder Víctor Robles isn’t in tonight’s lineup for the club’s pivotal NLDS Game 3 matchup against the Dodgers. Per Jamal Collier of MLB.com, that’s at the discretion of manager Dave Martinez, who overruled the rookie’s requests to start in order to be particularly cautious with his prized 22-year-old. Nevertheless, Martinez described Robles’ injury as a “very, very mild” hamstring strain, and noted that the speedster could come off the bench tonight. The Washington Post’s Jesse Dougherty adds (via Twitter) that the Nationals don’t anticipate any scenario in which they would scratch Robles from their NLDS roster, so it indeed seems an exceedingly minor concern for the defensive stalwart.
  • Adam Wainwright, 38, gave a brilliant performance this evening in the Cardinals’ Game 3 loss to the Braves, tossing 7.2 scoreless innings with eight strikeouts. It was a vintage performance for the former ace, who gave the Cardinals 171.2 innings of league average pitching (4.19 ERA, 20.5% K%, 8.6% BB%) in the regular season. Clearly, Wainwright can still perform at a high level, but given his age and the upcoming expiration of his one-year contract, there are questions about his future. Wainwright, though, doesn’t sound like a man on the verge of hanging up the spikes, telling Joe Trezza of MLB.com postgame he “never felt for one second that today was going to be (his) last day.” That’s not a definitive statement that he’d be returning to the big leagues, or to St. Louis specifically, but it stands to reason both sides could have interest in a similar incentive-laden arrangement (which Waino went on to maximize for $10MM) as they hammered out last October.
  • While Wainwright stayed healthy all season, the same can’t be said for left-hander Alex Wood, who started just seven games for the Reds after they sent two noteworthy prospects to the Dodgers to acquire him, Yasiel Puig, and Kyle Farmer last winter. Dealing with a back injury, Wood was ineffective when he did manage to take the mound, working to a 5.80 ERA with dreadful peripherals. It was hardly the platform season the 28 year-old (29 in January) wanted as he nears free agency for the first time. With the offseason offering an opportunity to get healthy, the sinkerballer tells Bobby Nightengale of Cincinnati.com he’d like to return to the Reds, admitting that his injury-riddled season wasn’t what the organization had in mind when they acquired him. As Nightengale notes, it’s difficult to see the Reds winning a bidding war for Wood given their strong staple of returning starters. That said, president of baseball operations Dick Williams has made clear the organization plans to be aggressive in free agency this offseason and wants to bolster the club’s pitching depth, so perhaps a Wood reunion could be in the cards depending on how his market shakes out.

MLBTR Poll: Will Stephen Strasburg Opt Out?

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Three games into the Washington Nationals 2019 postseason and Stephen Strasburg has already played the part of hero twice. In the other game, the Nats lost. Last night’s mastery spun 6 innings of 3-hit ball with 10 strikeouts to zero walks as he took the win at Dodger Stadium. His brilliance in the 2017 NLDS against the Cubs is largely forgotten since they didn’t advance, but it does add to the mounting pile of evidence suggesting Strasburg is indeed one of the game’s best big game pitchers.

Strasburg has a decision looming whenever the magic of the Nationals 2019 postseason runs dry. He has an opt-out clause in his contract that he could exercise to become a free agent this winter. Given the depressed market of recent offseasons, the possibility that Stras would opt-out seemed far-fetched not too long ago. That’s no longer the case. After completing perhaps the healthiest season of his career, one in which he could finish as high as second in Cy Young voting, one in which he registered league-leading marks in wins (18) and innings (209), as well as notching a career-high 251 strikeouts, Strasburg’s opt-out is more certain now than ever.

His agent, Scott Boras, is sure to make that pitch, though he has thus far refrained from speaking specifically about Strasburg’s intentions. He is, however, laying the groundwork for potential free agency by declaring stud starters such as Strasburg immune to any downturns in the market, per Bill Shaikin of the LA Times. With four-years and $100MM remaining on his contract already, he won’t exactly be hard-up for cash either way. Strasburg, 31, is also the rarest of Boras client – one who signed before reaching the open market.

If he doesn’t opt-out, his deal would expire after his 35th birthday. Strasburg could view this winter as his last opportunity to lock-in a major payday for his elder years. Zack Greinke signed his six-year, $206.5MM deal at a similar point in his career – after a career season in which he turned 31-years-old and finished second in Cy Young voting. In raw totals, Greinke’s 9.1 bWAR 2015 with the Dodgers eclipses Strasburg’s 6.3 bWAR 2019 by a decent margin, and Greinke’s overall track record was a tad more impressive at the time. He had been worth 48.9 bWAR to that point in his career versus 32.6 bWAR for Strasburg now. Even if you attribute the difference largely to durability (323 GS, 2094 2/3 innings for Greinke post-2015, 239 GS, 1438 2/3 innings for Strasburg post-2019), that’s hardly an insignificant attribution in contract negotiation.

A similar contract would more than double Strasburg’s guaranteed money while only tacking on two additional years. From the team perspective, it’s hard to fault the Diamondbacks for the deal now, as despite the whopping gross total, Greinke did deliver 16.4 bWAR across 3+ seasons, a playoff appearance, utility player Josh Rojas and their #4, #11 and #12 prospects as ranked by MLB.com.

Jake Arrieta signed a free agent contract when the Phillies inked him to a 3-year, $75MM deal the same week he turned 32. Arrieta had an even more uneven history than Strasburg, with 20.2 bWAR earned at the point of his free agency and a chasm of difference between the glory years in Chicago and his humble beginnings in Baltimore. This also feels less comparable to Strasburg as – despite being close to the same age at the time of free agency – Arrieta appeared headed for the downswing of his career. Strasburg is just now coming into his own, as written about here by Barry Svrluga of the Washington Post.

That same offseason, Yu Darvish signed his 6-year, $126MM deal with the Cubs in the winter of his 31st year. Darvish was coming off a 4.0 bWAR season split between Texas and Los Angeles, though a pair of disastrous World Series outings certainly colored the narrative of his free agency.

Regardless, Strasburg, Scott Boras, and the Nationals will have a lot to talk about this winter. If Strasburg can further grow his October legend, Boras may be right about his value transcending that of the market. Not to mention, Strasburg’s hometown of San Diego has a team on the rise, money to spend, and a gigantic ballpark with which to lure Strasburg home. In terms of competition, he’d be the clear-cut second-best starting pitching option on the free agent market after Gerrit Cole. You tell me: what comes next in the Strasburg saga?

(Poll link for app users)

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