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MLBTR Poll: Does Arenado Deal Impact Extensions For Goldschmidt, Rendon?

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Though it took longer than expected, Manny Machado and Bryce Harper got their big deals – Machado for a decade, Harper for a baker’s dozen. In the time between their signings, next winter’s top free agent got his big payday as well – the Rockies locked up Nolan Arenado for 8 years, $260MM. Free agency’s treatment of this winter’s big fish was always going to somewhat inform Arenado’s path, but the ramifications of all three superstars having planted their respective flags extends beyond San Diego, Philadelphia, and Colorado.

With Arenado’s abdication of his position atop 2019’s free agent class, Paul Goldschmidt inherits the throne. The Cardinals are now pressed with increased urgency to sign their new first baseman to an extension, writes Ben Frederickson of the St.Louis Post-Dispatch. Though Machado and Harper were both presumptive fits on the Cardinals roster, they never really approached the bidder’s circle. Of course, as Frederickson points out, signing top free agents hasn’t been the Cardinal modus operandi. What is very much in their DNA is trading for superstars and extending (or re-signing) them, two prime examples being Mark McGwire in 1997 and Matt Holliday in 2009.

Frederickson urges the Cards to dive headlong into their partnership with Goldy, who might prove amenable to a long-term guarantee after watching Machado, Harper, and so many others tread water in free agency. An extension won’t come cheap for one of the more more accomplished hitters of his generation, who boasts an absurd 144 career wRC+, six consecutive All-Star games, four Silver Sluggers, three Gold Gloves, plus two silver medals and a bronze for MVP. And yet, there’s no ignoring the uncertainty created these past two frigid winters.

Still, the top free agents continue to make bank, and the same should be true for Goldschmidt. It was only a year ago this time that Scott Boras coaxed the Padres into giving Eric Hosmer, a far inferior player, $144MM over eight years. Frederickson cites his Post-Dispatch colleague Derrick Goold in putting forth five years, $150MM ($30MM AAV) as a potential framework for a Goldschmidt extension.

The biggest differentiator between the Machado/Harper/Hosmer trio and Goldschmidt, of course, is age. The ISE Baseball client can claim one of the most well-rounded skill sets in the league – but he will be entering his age-32 season as a free agent. Still, the smart play for the Cardinals here, Frederickson suggests, is locking in the .297/.398/.532 career hitter as soon as possible he is willing.

The Nationals have a similar conundrum on their hands with Scott Boras client Anthony Rendon. For most Boras clients, there would be little hope for an extension this close to free agency, but Boras and the Nationals have made this work before – just not in every case. The two sides have remained in contact about a Rendon extension for most of the last year, per MLB.com’s Jamal Collier. Similarly to Goldschmidt, the Arenado signing has an effect here, as Rendon jumps to the top spot among free agent third basemen.

Rendon’s been a foundational piece throughout the Harper/Strasburg era in DC, batting .285/.361/.469 over six seasons in DC. He creates 23% more runs than average in that span, and he’s been even more impressive lately with a 141 wRC+ in 2017 and 140 wRC+ last year. Defensively he’s as sure-handed as they come, if not quite with Arenado’s flash. If it weren’t for Arenado’s vice-grip on the gold glove award, Rendon would likely have some hardware of his own.

Take a stacked positional class that includes Arenado, Kris Bryant, Matt Carpenter, Justin Turner, Eugenio Suarez, add to it superstar contemporaries in Stephen Strasburg, Max Scherzer, and Harper, plus a flourishing next generation of Nats stars like Trea Turner, Victor Robles, and Juan Soto – and Rendon’s excellence gets lost in the shuffle. Epitomizing Rendon’s place in the current canon is this: he has zero All-Star appearances despite three top-12 finishes in MVP voting. He did, however, win a Silver Slugger in 2014 and the NL Comeback Player of the Year award in 2016.

Rendon, who turns 29 in June, is set to earn $18.8MM in 2019, his last year before hitting the open market. With Arenado securing a $32.5MM AAV, what is Rendon’s value? He’s a year older and less decorated than Arenado, but Rendon’s 25.8 career fWAR compares favorably to Arenado’s 25.3 fWAR. Turning to a rate metric, Arenado’s put forth a 127 OPS+ over the past five seasons versus Rendon’s 122 OPS+ in the same span. Still, Arenado is pretty much universally regarded as the superior player.

Given their ages, neither Goldschmidt nor Rendon are likely to surpass Arenado’s contract in terms of length, but they could reach higher AAVs if their incumbent clubs take Frederickson’s advice: “Pour on the money. Scale back the years.” 

Goldschmidt poll link for app users. 

Rendon poll link for app users.

 

More On Bryce Harper: Werth, Phillies, Nats Farewell, New Teammates

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Former National and Phillie Jayson Werth was unsurprised to hear about his former teammate’s decision to sign in Philadelphia, per Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post. Werth knows the trek up I-95 well, as he went the opposite direction in the winter before 2011 when he ended a four-year run in Philly by joining a DC club that had drafted Harper the June prior. Werth’s perspective is unique, obviously, because of his relationship to mentee Bryce Harper, but Werth said he and Harper never discussed free agency or Philadelphia, despite speaking a couple of times over the winter. Werth likes the deal for both sides,“You’re getting a young Bryce Harper for his whole career,” says Werth. “You’re going to get him through tons of prime years. Compared with some of the other deals that are out there, it’s fair in the market for both parties. If you’re Bryce, I think you love the years. If you’re Philadelphia, you probably love the price.” Werth fans will appreciate this update from his post-playing days, which is going about as one might expect: he has his hands full with organic farming, snowboarding, and the launching of his own hemp processing business in Illinois. Let’s check in on a couple other Harper notes…

  • Reuben Frank of NBC Sports Philadelphia takes a look at the ten free agents in Philly history who made the biggest splash upon signing. Current 76ers GM Elton Brand makes the list, as does Werth’s former teammate Cliff Lee and MLB’s hit king Pete Rose. 
  • The Nationals bid Harper a fond farewell from their Twitter account in advance of his introduction in Philly. There does not appear to be quite the level of heartbreak one might expect from fans in Washington, perhaps due to Harper’s early flirtations with the Yankees, or the protracted nature of his departure, or the fact that his national fame predates his Nats career. Of course, the suppression of hurt feelings is a time-tested defense mechanism after a breakup, though the development of Juan Soto and Victor Robles certainly helps soften the blow. Harper leaves the Nationals second to only Ryan Zimmerman in many offensive categories since the club moved to Washington, including home runs, walks, runs, RBIs, extra-base hits and total bases. Add in the organization’s history in Montreal and Harper’s .900 OPS ranks second all-time, bested only by Vladimir Guerrero’s .978 OPS with the Expos.
  • Harper’s future teammates, meanwhile, are excited about the expectations Harper brings to the club, per MLB.com’s Richard Justice. Already many of the comments from Phillies players like Rhys Hoskins and Andrew McCutchen center on this team’s potential as a World Series contender. “[Harper] wants to be a Phillie for the rest of his career, pretty much. I get goosebumps thinking about it,” says Jake Arrieta, a guy who knows something about what it takes to win a World Series. “I doubt I’ll play for another 13 years, but I would love to be here for 13 years with him.” It’s safe to say Arrieta will need to kick his pilates routine into high gear if he’s to stick around that long, as he will turn 45 in March of the final year of Harper’s deal.

Nationals Notes: Kimbrel, Deferrals, Harper, Rendon

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  • Speaking of Kimbrel, ESPN.com’s Buster Olney (Twitter link) hears from rival evaluators who wonder if the Nationals could make a play for the star closer.  Washington is no stranger to high-profile bullpen signings, and while Sean Doolittle has pitched very well as the team’s closer, Doolittle has had his share of injury problems over the years.  Inking Kimbrel would put the Nationals over the luxury tax threshold for the third straight season, and if ownership had reluctance over paying a higher tax bill, the Nats might have to move some salary in order to fit Kimbrel into the mix.  Signing a free agent who rejected the qualifying offer (as Kimbrel did) would also cost the Nats its third- and sixth-highest picks in the 2019 draft.  As Olney notes, the Nationals might not mind surrendering even more picks in order to make a real splurge, as the team has already lost its second- and fifth-highest draft selections (plus $1MM of international draft pool money) by signing another QO free agent in Patrick Corbin.
  • Deferred money has long been a staple of the Nationals’ contract negotiations, as several notable players (i.e. Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Corbin, Anibal Sanchez, Brian Dozier) in recent years have signed deals with the team that include significant amounts of salary to be paid out over long stretches of time.  Scherzer’s deal contains $105MM in deferred money, for example, while Strasburg’s $175MM extension with the Nats contained $70MM in deferrals that will be paid out to Strasburg from 2024-30.  While Scherzer, Strasburg, and Bryce Harper are all represented by Scott Boras, Barry Svrluga of the Washington Post wonders if the Nationals’ deferral-heavy strategy might have cost them a chance at Harper.  Roughly a third of Washington’s reported ten-year, $300MM offer to Harper last fall was reportedly set to be paid out in deferred money for decades to come, possibly until Harper was close to 60 years old.  This type of long-term payment isn’t something that appeals to every player, making Svrluga wonder if Anthony Rendon would be comfortable with deferred money as the star third baseman continues his own extension talks with the Nationals.

Glover Shut Down Due To Forearm Strain

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  • Similarly, the Nationals got more bad news on right-hander Koda Glover, who is being shut down for the time being due to a forearm strain in his right arm, as Mack Zuckerman of MASNsports.com writes. The Nats, by all accounts, love Glover’s potential but have been unable to keep him on the field over the past two seasons, as he’s been shelved by back, hip and shoulder injuries. Once looked at as a potential closer of the future in D.C., Glover has managed just 35 2/3 innings at the MLB level across the past two seasons. Despite only having pitched a total of 55 1/3 innings in the Majors, Glover already has more than two full seasons of MLB service time given his lengthy DL stays. On the plus side, the 25-year-old’s MRI revealed no damage to his elbow ligament. Glover expressed confidence that the issue will ultimately prove minor, though only time will tell whether that will ultimately be the case.

Nationals Koda Glover Leaves Game With Elbow Tightness

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Koda Glover’s health struggles continued in his first appearance of the spring today. He left the game with elbow tightness and will have to be re-evaluated on Monday, per Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post. As of right now, there is no indication as to the severity of Glover’s discomfort. 

Glover managed only 22 pitches to four batters before being replaced by Austen Williams. It’s another unfortunate setback for Glover, who missed most of the last two seasons with injuries to his back, hip and shoulder. Coming into the 2017 season he was a significant piece of the Nats’ bullpen puzzle and the potential closer of the future. A hip impingement sent him to the injured list for two weeks at the end of April of that year, but when he returned, he recorded five saves over a spotless nine appearances in May. He totaled 8 saves on the year before a back injury put him on back on the shelf for the rest of the season.

Remember, Glover’s injuries paired with Blake Treinen’s ineffectiveness led the club to trade for Sean Doolittle and Ryan Madson. Doolittle has become a vocal leader in the clubhouse and community while locking down the ninth inning – when healthy. Of course, that deal cost the Nationals Jesus Luzardo, a Baseball America top-10 prospect as of today, and Treinen would figure things out in a major way while with Oakland.

None of which, obviously, falls on Glover, though one can only imagine it would be reassuring for the Nationals were he and Doolittle to stay healthy and productive enough to secure the high-leverage portions of baseball games in 2019. For that to happen, Glover will first need to get healthy. He felt good coming into the game, and this spring was the strongest he’d felt in awhile, per Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com. Unfortunately, any feel good comeback story is again on hold for the Nats and Glover, who turns 26 in April.

For his career, Glover has appeared in parts of three seasons, totaling 63 appearances out of the pen, a 4.00 FIP and 2.00 strikeout-to-walk ratio. For the Nationals, they should have enough even if Glover is out long-term, with Trevor Rosenthal, Kyle Barraclough, Justin Miller, Wander Suero from the right side, as well as starters Austin Voth, Erick Fedde, Joe Ross, and Kyle McGowin who could be move to the bullpen if they aren’t needed in the rotation.

Minor MLB Transactions: 2/23/19

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Rounding up the latest in minor moves…

  • The Nationals have reportedly signed OF Collin Cowgill and 1B/OF O’Koyea Dickson to minor league deals.  Cowgill, 32, has appeared in the majors for five organizations since his professional career began in 2008, slashing a decent .234/.297/.329 (79 wRC+) over 759 lifetime PA. He spent most of 2018 with Philadelphia’s AAA-Lehigh Valley affiliate, where he turned in a barely-above-average line in 93 games. Dickson had his Japanese sojourn cut short last season; the 29-year-old appeared in just 22 games for Rakuten in the Pacific League, slashing a meager .175/.217/.228. Dickson was thrust from obscurity after a .328/.398/.596 line for AAA-Oklahoma City in 2016; he appeared in seven late-season games for the Dodgers the next season, largely in a pinch-hitting role.

Lerner: No Recent Contact With Bryce Harper, Scott Boras

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The Nationals have continued to be mentioned on the periphery of the Bryce Harper bidding, but in a Friday-morning interview with NBC Sports Washington, managing principal owner Mark Lerner again suggested that Harper will not be returning to Washington. Lerner originally stated back in early December that he was not expecting to re-sign Harper.

“Nothing’s really changed on our end,” said Lerner. “We’ve moved on, as I said [in December]. We had to. There was no way we could wait around. Bryce, I’m sure, will make his decision hopefully in the next few days. But we’ve filled out our roster, and we wish him nothing but the best. But, there’s always that — the door is cracked a little bit.”

The “moved on” portion of Lerner’s statement will assuredly generate headlines throughout the day, but it should be noted that his comment loses some teeth given the immediate followup about the door remaining “cracked a little bit.” Lerner adds that the Nats haven’t even heard from Harper and agent Scott Boras in quite some time and that he has “no clue at this point what they’re up to,” which is perhaps even more telling than his somewhat muddied declaration of “moving on.”

At this point, the Harper market is murky beyond the Phillies and the Giants, the latter of whom has reportedly only been interested on a shorter-term deal than Harper has been seeking this winter. MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reported last night that Padres ownership was holding a meeting today to determine if there was a feasible scenario in which the team could pursue Harper even after signing Manny Machado to a 10-year, $300MM contract, although that was characterized as a long shot and would seem more a matter of due diligence than anything else at this point. Multiple reports out of Chicago have indicated that the White Sox will not be placing a bid on Harper after losing out on Machado.

Bryce Harper Rumors: Thursday

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Now that Manny Machado’s 10-year, $300MM deal with the Padres has been announced, Bryce Harper and agent Scott Boras have a definitive bar to attempt to clear as they seek a record-setting contract of their own. Yesterday’s slate of rumors on Harper had a series of updates on how the Phillies, Nats, White Sox and Giants view the former NL MVP now that Machado is off the board. Here’s a look at the latest chatter on “Harper’s Bazaar” as the long, drawn-out saga inches toward a resolution…

  • MLB.com’s Jon Morosi joined Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area for Pavlovic’s latest Giants Insider podcast (audio link; Harper talk beginning around 12:45), wherein Morosi called an 11-year contract for Harper “very possible.” As others have done before him, Morosi suggested that Harper is expected to receive a larger contract than the one Machado received in San Diego.
  • Coming away from their pursuit of Machado empty-handed has “heightened” the Phillies’ pursuit of Harper, writes Matt Breen of the Philadelphia Inquirer. Breen writes that the organization is confident it’ll be able to sign the six-time All-Star, adding that the Phils “will be much more reluctant to walk away this time.” General manager Matt Klentak spoke candidly this week about the fact that Machado’s price point simply got to a point that exceeded the team’s valuation of Machado. It’s not clear whether the organization will take a similarly practical approach to Harper in the end, but Breen notes that the front office and ownership are keenly aware of how the public would perceive a scenario in which the Phillies fail to sign either Harper or Machado.
  • Padres ownership will meet tomorrow to determine if it is feasible to make a run at signing Harper in addition to signing Machado, tweets MLB Network’s Jon Heyman. As one would expect, Heyman notes that such a scenario is not at all considered likely, but it seems that the organization’s partners will at least perform due diligence and see if such a strategy can be pieced together. Heyman further tweets that for the Nationals, the ultimate call on Harper will come down to Ted Lerner (despite the fact that in 2018, Lerner ceded control of the organization to his son, Mark). The elder Lerner’s relationship with Boras is well-documented, though virtually every report out of D.C. over the past several weeks has suggested that the Nationals won’t be a top bidder for Harper.
  • Bruce Levine of 670 The Score / CBS Chicago reports that the White Sox will not bid on Harper, echoing similar sentiments reported by USA Today’s Bob Nightengale yesterday. Levine notes that the organization is quite high on some of its outfield prospects, noting that the ChiSox could make a short-term pickup in the outfield to help bridge the gap to that young talent.

Anthony Rendon Open To Extension Talks During Season

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Anthony Rendon said today that he isn’t putting any deadlines on extension talks with the Nationals, as Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com was among those to report.

Emphasizing that he’s the boss in his relationship with agent Scott Boras, Rendon said he’s ready to listen to offers at any time of the year. He doesn’t expect contract talks to become a distraction if they drag into the season, but says that “if it does become an issue, then I’ll address it.”

Surely the preference on all sides would be to wrap something up during camp, but it seems there’s still a gulf to be bridged in terms of price. Rendon has, not unjustifiably, staked out a high asking price. He declined to get into details, telling reporters he’d rather leave them guessing, but did acknowledge ongoing chatter. Said Rendon: “if both parties can be happy, then we’ll see.”

Rendon’s stance, then, generally echoes that of fellow star third baseman Nolan Arenado, who is exploring the possibility of a long-term deal with the Rockies. It’s interesting to wonder whether those parallel extension negotiations could influence one another, both because the players are similarly valuable on the field and because the presence or absence of one on next winter’s market could significantly impact the earning outlook for the other.

These players have surely taken note of Manny Machado’s recent payday in considering their own possible free agent futures. Of course, both Rendon and Arenado are on track to enter the market at significantly older (but still youthful) ages, but each has an argument to command an average salary in the range of Machado’s $30MM. We examined Rendon’s extension case at the outset of the offseason.

Latest On Nats, Harper

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  • As part of an interesting look at what it’s like to sit and wait through a long stay on the open market, Britt Ghiroli of The Athletic drops a few nuggets regarding the Nationals and still-unsigned star free agent Bryce Harper. (Subscription link.) Word reached some in the organization recently that the club was “out of the running” to bring back Harper, per the report, though Ghiroli also cautions that there’s still nothing approaching certainty there. After all, Nats ownership and agent Scott Boras have a well-established knack for finding a way to line up on big contracts.
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