Nationals Rumors

NL Notes: Rodgers, Carrasco, Cardinals, Nationals

By Anthony Franco | March 14, 2021 at 3:00pm CDT

Rockies infielder Brendan Rodgers left yesterday’s Spring Training contest after pulling up while trying to steal second base. He has since been diagnosed with a right hamstring strain, per Thomas Harding of MLB.com (Twitter link). It isn’t yet clear if the issue threatens his availability for Opening Day. If healthy, the former #3 overall pick looks to have a clear path to everyday playing time at second base. Should he be forced to miss time, Garrett Hampson or Josh Fuentes could stand to see an increased role (the latter at third base with Ryan McMahon playing the keystone). Chris Owings is also back in camp as a non-roster invitee and has plenty of second base experience.

Stephen Strasburg Day-To-Day With Calf Injury

By Anthony Franco | March 14, 2021 at 2:23pm CDT

2:23 pm: Fortunately, it seems there’s not much cause for concern. Strasburg felt some discomfort in his left calf but says the issue is “nothing major” (via Dougherty). “It’s not something that’s going to require any sort (of) long-term recovery. It’s definitely good news. So day-to-day,” Strasburg added.

1:23 pm: Nationals starter Stephen Strasburg left his Spring Training outing early this afternoon, Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post was among those to note (video provided by Alex Fast of Pitcher List). He appeared to show discomfort in his lower half.

There’s no indication at this point the issue is particularly serious. A return to form from Strasburg is key to the Nats’ hopes of contending in the NL East in 2021. After shining in the regular season between 2017-19, he took his game to new heights in the 2019 playoffs, helping Washington to a championship and winning World Series MVP honors. Unfortunately, carpal tunnel syndrome limited Strasburg to just five innings over two starts in 2020.

The Nationals are hoping for Strasburg to join Max Scherzer, Patrick Corbin and Jon Lester in the season-opening rotation. The fifth spot remains undecided between Joe Ross and Erick Fedde, although Ross appears to have the inside track.

East Notes: Andujar, Chirinos, Brasier, Rainey

By Anthony Franco | March 14, 2021 at 9:53am CDT

Miguel Andújar has been held back by soreness in his right hand/wrist area and will see a specialist tomorrow, Yankees manager Aaron Boone told reporters (including Marly Rivera of ESPN and Lindsey Adler of the Athletic). That evaluation will surely provide a clearer diagnosis and timetable for Andújar’s return to action, but this seemingly raises the possibility of a season-opening IL stint. Andújar hasn’t played much over the past two years after a strong rookie season in 2018. The 26-year-old has been frequently mentioned as a possible trade candidate based on the offensive upside he showed a few years ago and his lack of an obvious path to playing time in New York. The Yankees could continue to hold onto him as high-minors depth, though, as Andújar has an option year remaining.

What The Nationals See In Joe Ross

By TC Zencka | March 9, 2021 at 10:02pm CDT

The Nationals continue to lean Joe Ross’ direction for their fifth starter spot, per Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post (via Twitter). The Nats’ organization has long been enamored with Ross’ potential. But it’s been a long and winding road.

Injuries and poor performance had all but done in Ross in the first half of 2019. Austin Voth and Erick Fedde were both getting starts ahead of him, and a stint as a long man out of the pen proved disastrous. He posted an 11.17 ERA/6.27 FIP in 19 1/3 innings out of the bullpen. A .415 BABIP didn’t help matters, nor did Freddie Freeman and the Braves, who blew him up for four earned runs in one inning on June 22nd, an outing that resulted in Ross’ demotion to the minors.

Then, with the Nats playing like one of the best teams in baseball, ace Max Scherzer missed the first three weeks of August. Ross stepped in. Surprisingly, he didn’t miss a beat. He made eight starts the rest of the way with a 2.75 ERA over 39 1/3 innings. The Nats went 7-1 in those games.

What Ross found, and what the Nats saw in him, wasn’t just a solid stretch of games. It was a return to his roots. He came into the league in 2015 as a two-pitch pitcher: sinker and slider. He added a change-up for 2016. Over those first two seasons, he had a 3.52 ERA/3.46 FIP over 181 2/3 innings. But injuries piled up, culminating in Tommy John surgery in 2017. He made just 16 starts in 2017-18 covering 89 2/3 innings with a 5.02 ERA/5.14 FIP.

Those were injury-riddled seasons, but something else happened those two seasons. Ross started to re-work his pitch mix, relying less on his sinker. Instead of 54% sinkers, 38% sliders, and 8% change-ups, Ross threw 47% sinkers, 35% sliders, 11% change-ups, and 8% four-seamers. In three starts after returning from Tommy John in 2018, however, his four-seam usage jumped to 30.4% – his most-used offering.

Ross started the same way in 2019 – with lots of fastballs. Over the final two months, however, he returned to a sinker-heavy approach, dropping his fastball usage to 15.1% in August and 21.6% in September. It took Ross awhile to find his sinker again after returning from injury, but he found it in August 2019.

His fastball, of course, does serve a function. It has the potential to be a better swing-and-miss offering than his sinker. His heater generated a 22.8% swing-and-miss rate in 2019 to just 14.9% on his sinker. His most important pitch might be his change-up, an area of specialty for new pitching coach Jim Hickey.

After opting out of the 2020 season, Ross made his first spring start yesterday, tossing 39 pitches against the Mets. Ross spoke about rushing, missing high with his fastball, and trying to focus on his change-up, per MLB.com’s Jessica Camerato.

Manager Davey Martinez hopes to get him closer to 50 pitches in his second outing. If Ross can build up his stamina and avoid injury, he’s going to be the Nats’ fifth starter. The inside track is his.

From the outside, it’s easy to see Ross’ 5.21 ERA/4.91 FIP since 2017, and question whether he’s the best option. But the decision-makers in Washington likely remember the best of Ross. Martinez leaned on him down the stretch in their title-winning season. He called on Ross the morning of game five and pushed him into emergency duty, again, when Scherzer woke up unable to lift his arm. The Nats lost that game, but Ross gave them five innings just two days after throwing 19 pitches in game three.

GM Mike Rizzo knows the best parts of Ross as well. He is, after all, the GM who acquired him. What’s more, the deal that brought Ross to Washington is one of the most successful trades on Rizzo’s lengthy resume. That was the same deal that would eventually deliver Trea Turner as a player to be named later.

There’s a lot of history there. Ross was 21-years-old when Rizzo acquired him. The Nationals have invested a lot of time into his development, and if he can be the guy the organization thinks he can be, he’ll be a steal while making just $1.5MM in 2021. He even has one season of arbitration remaining after 2021.

In tracing Ross’ journey with Rizzo over these past six years, it’s easy to see just how muddying the human element of the game can be. One could look at the projections for Ross, 1.1 fWAR by STEAMER, 0.5 fWAR by ZiPS, and see not much upside. Especially for a Nats’ team that hopes to return to contention in a crowded NL East. For Rizzo, Martinez, and Ross, however, the upside is more than a few wins above replacement. It’s redemption. It’s mentorship and perseverance and the culture of their club. It’s validation all around.

Over the past couple of years, the Nats made headlines by letting superstars Bryce Harper and Anthony Rendon walk in free agency. But as an organization, the Nats like to believe in their people. Ask Ryan Zimmerman, who’s been with the team for 15 years. Or Aaron Barrett, whom the Nats helped return to the bigs after a four year absence and two gruesome injuries. Or even Stephen Strasburg, whom the Nats famously tried to protect by keeping him out of the playoffs because they believed that was best for his long-term health.

It’s not surprising, then, that the Nationals want to believe in Ross. They’re going to give him every opportunity to break camp as their fifth starter. He’s also out of options, which serves as a nice metaphor while also describing his roster status. If he’s not able to put it all together this season, Rizzo and the Nats might finally move on, as they’ve proven themselves capable of doing. But for now, he’s their guy.

NL Notes: Jeffress, Nationals, Varsho, Howard

By Mark Polishuk | March 8, 2021 at 2:55pm CDT

The Nationals’ release of Jeremy Jeffress yesterday carried some mystery, both because it came so early in Spring Training (and within three weeks of Jeffress signing with the Nats) and because GM Mike Rizzo used the odd phrasing of describing the release as due to “personnel reasons.” Rizzo didn’t provide much further clarification in speaking with Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com and other reporters today, apart from saying that Jeffress’ release was “an employment issue” and not related to on-field performance.

Jeffress himself has weighed in, texting Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post to say that the Nationals’ given reason for releasing him was “not true,” without specifying what the club said. The veteran reliever also wrote a pair of tweets yesterday, one stating “I’m not what they say I am, I’m what God says! I don’t deserve this false negativity!” and another since-deleted tweet saying that his former agent “jus ruined my life.” It remains to be seen if the reason behind Jeffress’ release will ever fully come to light, but if nothing else, this uncertain situation would seem to hamper Jeffress’ chances of catching on with another team.

Nationals Will Make Extension Offers To Juan Soto, Trea Turner In Near Future

By TC Zencka | March 8, 2021 at 9:58am CDT

The Washington Nationals have famously fielded top-heavy rosters typically built around a core of strong starting pitching. Since Washington’s first playoff appearance in 2012, they’ve advanced to postseason play five times in nine years, always on the backs of their starting pitching. The starting pitching units on their playoff teams (2012, 2014, 2016, 2017, 2019) ranked 1st, 1st, 2nd, 4th, and 3rd in the Majors by FIP and 5th, 2nd, 1st, 2nd, and 1st by fWAR. Gio Gonzalez, Jordan Zimmermann, Tanner Roark, Max Scherzer, and Stephen Strasburg each posted multiple 3.0+ fWAR seasons for Nats’ playoff teams, and Patrick Corbin is halfway there after a 4.7 fWAR season in 2019.

On the position player side, a core of Bryce Harper, Jayson Werth Ryan Zimmerman, and Ian Desmond added Anthony Rendon in 2014. They morphed by swapping Daniel Murphy and Trea Turner into the core group for Desmond and Werth by 2016. Before 2019, this unit faced their most monumental change yet, letting Harper leave for Philly as Juan Soto developed in his place. Rendon left after the title team in 2019, and it’s now been three years since Zimmerman aka “Mr. National” played a central role in the offense.

Present day, the Nats’ offensive core is a smaller unit than it’s been in year’s past, but it might be the strongest foundation of a Nationals team to date. Soto is one of the best offensive players in the game, compared today to Ted Williams by the Athletic’s Jayson Stark. Turner is one of the game’s most dynamic and underrated superstars.

Victor Robles certainly seemed like a key member of this core unit in 2019, and they hoped Carter Kieboom might step into Rendon’s place at the hot corner, but neither cemented their place in the inner circle during a rough 2020 season. The slow ascent of Kieboom and Robles has made Soto and Turner all the more important to the Nats’ future. Beyond their obvious talents, at 22 and 27 years old, they’re the youngest ties to the 2019 title team.

Starting pitching has been this team’s past, but Scherzer is 36, Strasburg is 32 and twice lost seasons to injury, and Corbin is 31. Their top prospects are a couple of power arms in Jackson Rutledge and Cade Cavalli, and Cole Henry, Andry Lara, Jeremy De La Rosa, and Tim Cate provide some backing in that regard, but there’s much uncertainty in projecting arms. The Nationals future seems to lie in the hands of Soto, Turner, and to a lesser extent, Robles and Kieboom.

The clock is ticking, however, and the cost is rising. Turner will make $13MM this season with one more year of arbitration before free agency after 2022. Soto became arbitration eligible for this first time this winter as a Super Two player. He’ll make $8.5MM in 2021 with three more turns through arbitration before free agency after 2024. He’ll be just 26 years old.

The conversation inevitably turns to potential extensions, and there have been internal discussions about what it might cost to lock their two superstars into long-term deals. In fact, there will be long-term contract offers on the table in the near future, per Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post (via Twitter).

They’ve made offers in the past, however. Per MLB.com’s Jessica Camerato (via Twitter), GM Mike Rizzo said earlier today, “We’ve discussed internally with ownership about it. We’re in the midst of making decisions on what a timeframe would look like … We certainly have made & will make a long-term extension offer to both players sometime in the near future.”

Since the Braves extended Ronald Acuña Jr. to a well-below-market eight-year, $100MM extension, and the Padres extended Fernando Tatis to a 14-year $340MM extension, Soto might be the best young player without a long-term deal in place. Acuña signed his deal after winning Rookie of the Year with a 4.3 bWAR season in 111 games. Tatis signed after two years of service time and 7.0 bWAR through 143 total games. Soto has just 0.143 more service time than Tatis, but he’s begun the arbitration process, played in 313 games, won a World Series, and accrued 9.7 bWAR. How much will it cost to extend the next Ted Williams? That’s a difficult question, especially when he’s represented by Scott Boras.

If there’s any organization comfortable dealing with mega-agent Boras, it’s the Nationals, who have dealt with him over the years both to sign long-term deals in the case of Strasburg and Scherzer and to not sign those deals with Harper and Rendon. The Nats should have a pretty clear idea about what it would take to sign Soto – or if it’s even possible.

As for Turner, the CAA client might want to wait and see how next winter’s free agent market shakes out. One way or another, a market price will be set for star shortstops as Francisco Lindor, Javier Baez, Carlos Correa, Marcus Semien, Trevor Story, and Corey Seager all sign new contracts. If he does wait, 2021 could be a make-or-break season for Turner. While he’s flashed tremendous potential, he’s also dealt with injuries that have cut short some of his most productive seasons. He finished 7th in MVP voting during the shortened 2020 season.

Xander Bogaerts signed a six-year, $120MM extension in April 2019 with the Red Sox, which could be used as a comparison point. You can check MLBTR’s Extension Tracker to find your own comps. Bogaerts – a Boras client – signed after 5.046 days of service time at 26 years old with 759 games and 15.6 bWAR under his belt. Turner is at 4.135 days of service time right now. He’ll be in the territory of Bogaerts’ 5.046 service time days by the time he turns 28-years-old in June. At present, Turner has notched 541 games and 16.6 bWAR.

One thing we know about Washington and long-term deals is that money will have to be deferred. That said, they’ve shown willing to spend high-end money for the right players. Even though they’ll pay Strasburgh $35MM a season through 2026, and Corbin escalating salaries of $23.4MM, $24.4MM and $35.4MM through 2024, the Nats have some long-term payroll flexibility. Schezer’s $42MM deal comes off the books after this season, as does deals for Brad Hand, Starlin Castro, Daniel Hudson, Yan Gomes, Jon Lester, Alex Avila, Josh Harrison, and Zimmerman. They can also takes a $3MM buyout for Kyle Schwarber over an $11MM option. That’s a total of $73.6MM that could come off the books following 2021. Of course, in that circumstance, Rizzo would also have to back-fill nine roster spots.

Nationals Release Jeremy Jeffress

By Mark Polishuk | March 7, 2021 at 11:00pm CDT

The Nationals have released right-hander Jeremy Jeffress, Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post reports. The move was made due to “personnel reasons,” GM Mike Rizzo said in a statement.

Jeffress only signed his minor league contract with the Nats back on February 22, and would have earned at least $1.25MM in guaranteed salary had he made Washington’s MLB roster. While the timing of the release is somewhat unusual, it could be that the Nationals made a quick decision on Jeffress and simply chose to cut him now rather than prolonging his stay in camp. Jeffress may also now get something of an early jump on catching on with another team, though several other veteran relief pitchers are still available.

Looking to pitch in his 12th Major League season, Jeffress posted a 1.54 ERA over 23 1/3 innings with the Cubs last season, though numerous advanced metrics (ranging from a 4.96 SIERA to a .161 BABIP) indicated that a lot of good fortune went into Jeffress’ sterling ERA. It was something of a reversal of his 2019 season, as the secondary statistics indicated that Jeffress pitched better than his 5.02 ERA over 52 innings with the Brewers.

Jeffress has a career 3.08 ERA and 56.6% grounder rate over 424 1/3 career frames with five different clubs, with the majority (304 2/3 IP) of that work over parts of seven seasons with Milwaukee. Reports back in January indicated that multiple clubs were considering Jeffress, so one of those teams could again come calling with a minor league deal now that the 33-year-old is back on the market.

Nationals Sign Justin Miller To Minors Deal

By Connor Byrne | March 6, 2021 at 8:26am CDT

The Nationals recently signed right-handed reliever Justin Miller to a minor league contract, as originally reported by the Talk Nats blog (Twitter link). As per Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post, Miller’s deal does not include an invitation to Washington’s big league spring camp.

There’s familiarity between Washington and Miller, who pitched for the team from 2018-19. He fared quite well in the first of those seasons, in which he gave the Nationals 52 1/3 innings of 3.61 ERA/3.34 SIERA ball with quality strikeout and walk rates of 27.9 percent and 7.9 percent, respectively. Miller was unable to replicate that performance during the Nationals’ World Series-winning 2019 campaign, though, owing in part to shoulder troubles. He totaled 15 2/3 frames, recorded a 4.02 ERA/5.46 SIERA and experienced a severe drop in strikeout percentage (16.9) before his season ended in mid-May.

The 33-year-old Miller, also a former Tiger and Rockie, spent time with the Blue Jays and Reds organizations last season. He didn’t appear in the majors with either team.

Jon Lester Will Undergo Surgery To Remove Thyroid Gland

By Steve Adams | March 3, 2021 at 1:57pm CDT

Nationals left-hander Jon Lester will undergo surgery to have his thyroid gland removed on Friday, manager Dave Martinez announced today (link via Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post). Assuming all goes well, the surgery is only expected to keep him out of action for roughly a week’s time, the manager added.

The 37-year-old Lester has been dealing with fatigue early in camp. After some consultations with medical experts and a slate of tests, he opted to have the surgery this week with the hope that it’ll prevent further symptoms during the 2021 season. He’s traveling to New York today.

Lester signed a one-year, $5MM deal with the Nationals over the winter, setting the stage for him to slide into the rotation behind Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg and Patrick Corbin. The contract reunites him with Martinez, who was his bench coach in Chicago from 2015-17, and with fellow free-agent signee Kyle Schwarber.

Back in 2006, during his rookie year with the Red Sox, Lester was diagnosed with lymphoma and was away for nearly a year while undergoing chemotherapy. Since going into remission and returning to the mound, he’s been among the game’s most durable starters. The five-time All-Star made at least 31 starts per season over a 12-year period from 2008-19, averaging 199 innings per season. Along the way, he also kicked in 144 2/3 innings of 2.55 ERA ball in the postseason and took home NLCS MVP honors in 2016. During last year’s shortened season, he started a dozen games.

While Lester isn’t the ace he was at his peak, his status as one of the game’s most reliable sources of innings makes him plenty appealing for a Nationals club that needed a steady presence behind an established top three. Lester struggled to a 5.16 ERA last summer, but he also posted his lowest walk percentage and highest ground-ball rate since 2015. A clearer schedule for the lefty will be known after the procedure, but the early projection that he could be back to work after just a week obviously bodes well for both Lester and the Nats.

East Notes: Mets, Orioles, Nationals

By TC Zencka | March 1, 2021 at 8:19am CDT

Mets President Sandy Alderson said that he expects extension talks with Francisco Lindor and Michael Conforto to begin soon, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). Both players are scheduled for free agency after the 2021 season. Lindor, for his part, has made clear that he will not negotiate an extension beyond opening day, so the window is now for Alderson and the Mets. Alderson also put forth Noah Syndergaard’s name as a potential extension candidate as well, notes Tim Healey of Newsday (via Twitter). Syndergaard, of course, is on the way back from Tommy John surgery and won’t likely appear until mid-season, but he will also be a free agent at year’s end. Extending those three would certainly cost a chunk of change, but the Mets do have roughly $100MM coming off their payroll next offseason. Interestingly, Marcus Stroman was not mentioned as an extension candidate. His $18.9MM salary could help provide the necessary raises next season for Lindor, Conforto, and Syndergaard. While we’re here, let’s check in with some other clubs in the East…

Orioles outfielder Cedric Mullins is giving up switch-hitting to bat lefty full-time, writes Rich Dubroff of Baltimorebaseball.com. After a horrendous 2019, Mullins bounced back somewhat in 2020, doing enough to stay on the Major League roster to appear in 48 games and 153 plate appearances with a palatable .271/.315/.407 slash line. Mullins is trying to make the Orioles roster as a fourth outfielder, though there are certainly more at-bats available if he proves capable. Giving up his right-handed swing could force him into a more straight platoon, but he hasn’t been helped by his work on the short side of that split anyhow. For his career, Mullins has hit just .146 as a right-hander with a 26 wRC+ (versus 90 wRC+ as a lefty). The split was even more pronounced last season when he earned a 118 wRC+ as a left-handed hitter versus 34 wRC+ from the right side. If nothing else, Mullins should be able to simplify his routine by focusing on one swing.
Erick Fedde may have stumbled upon a solution to his wandering fastball command, writes Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post. In his first start of the spring, Fedde turned to his cutter, a pitch that has long eluded him as he has tried to establish himself as a Major League pitcher. Fedde’s cutter did not help his cause in either 2018 or 2020, per Fangraphs pitch values, though in 2019 it was his best offering. Fedde is competing for the Nats fifth starter job, though he’s not likely to win the job out of camp. With one option remaining, the Nationals have more roster flexibility with Fedde than with his competitors Joe Ross and Austin Voth. For Fedde to stick long-term, he probably needs both his sinking fastball and his cutter to work with more consistency.

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