Mets And Johan Santana?

Charley Walters of the St. Paul Pioneer Press throws it down:

"Don't be surprised if the New York Mets, and not the Yankees, end up with Johan Santana for $20 million a year after the Twins' Cy Young Award winner becomes a free agent after the 2008 season."

Who knows what Santana could do pitching half his games in Shea Stadium (one season there, at least).  I think it's impossibly early to call any kind of Santana derby, but maybe Walters just wants to send half of New York into a frenzy.  If Santana does reach free agency, I'm sure all the major big-budget teams will have interest.  He's only the best pitcher in baseball.

Just for fun: PECOTA says Santana will be worth $21,800,000 for the 2009 season.

Of course, this story from January 29th should not be ignored.  The Twins will approach Santana about a contract extension, and Santana is willing to work something out.

Comments

[beauhoopman]

Santana would have no chance against the Nationals offense.

[King Grandiosity]

what would a reasonable over/under for Santana's K total be?

facing mostly the nationals, the marlins, and the phillies (who feature a heart of the lineup that k's 100+ each every year)....

280?

[bobo]

This is a joke, right? Who can write something like that and call themselves a sportswriter?

OF COURSE the Mets would sign Santana for $20M a year. Any team would. What's this guy reporting actually? That the Mets are interested (who wouldn't be?). That he actually thinks they'd get him for $20M (still laughing at that one).

There is absolutely zero chance this happens. He'll either sign with the Twins for a bargain (~$18-20M) rate, or go to the highest bidder. The Mets showed a willingness to overpay with Pedro, so maybe they'll offer him $28M a year or so.

But this is the furthest thing from "news".

[Aduncaroo]

If he goes for 28 mil I will cry...for baseball in general. 28??? Come on, if anyone is worth that, its him. However, no one, especially someone that can only help the team at MOST 20% of their games, is worth 28 mil a year.

[coolpapabell]

For my own personal sanity, let's try to keep the Mets and Johan Santanain different atmosphere's until he signs on a dotted line with Wilpon's name next to it. In be half of all Mets fan's, we thank you in advance.

[bspucker]

i agree with bobo. if he doesn't get an extention with the twins he will go to the highest bidder. you gotta like the yanks in that situation considering the roster spots and the money they are trying to free up.

[Guitar Hero]

This is the stupidest article I've ever read. He's not a free agent yet for 2 years. Many teams will offer him 20 million or more. What's the news here?

[Paul AKA twinsfan]

As a Twins fan all this specualtion about Santana leaving is really starting to piss me off.

[OPERATIONSHUTDOWN]

The Royals would give Santana $20 mm per. Assuming good health, the variables for Santana's next contract are the following:

1)Minnesota's postseason success/prospects.
2)His desire to play for a particular team ("winner") or in a particular city.
3)Number of years/money up front.

With respect to the average salary, this will entirely be up to Santana. He'll be offered the maximum any team can offer without the contract smelling like an albatross. His value is at least 20mm, bidding will push it to god knows where. The recent economic shifts in baseball will really be tested by the viability of free agents like Andruw Jones, Ichiro, Zambrano, and Santana. In an era when a great 44 yr. old can name his own salary, the marginal value of elite talent is pretty apparent.

[Paul AKA twinsfan]

O and I hate Walters he only does this hoping his name will get mentioned in bigger papers by the time 08 does get around he'll have Santana linked to every team except the D-rays.

[bobo]

The $28M number was off the top of my head, but I think it's reasonable.

If Zito's getting $17M and league average starters around in the double digits, then Santana should be there. I don't buy the starting pitching argument either. Yes, he pitches 20% of a team's games, but you have to weight his contribution in those games, which can be 5 times as much as any hitter who plays every day.

VORP, for example, has him right up there with the best hitters. I believe pitchers and hitters VORP is on the same scale, but I might be wrong.

And that's not taking into account his impact on short series. You can assume that most if not all of the teams at the top of the bidding will have a good shot at making it to the postseason. Then you're talking about 40% of the division series, and either 29% or 43% of the LCS/WS, and those games are worth some large factor more.

There's very little doubt that in this market, compared to other players, he's worth well over $25M.

[plh903]

Not for say, the Marlins who pay $600K per marginal win, but maybe for the Cubs who spend $4.9M or the Yankees who pay $3.8M.

Basically a large market team that ignores value and is working with monopoly money will pick him up, but it is not worth it at $25M/yr for most clubs to do so, no matter how good he is.

[organizedfamine]

As a baseball fan (and no the Twins aren't my favorite team) I hope he stays in Minnesota where he belongs.

[nrmax88]

Good lord how many games would Johan win in that ballpark ( Would be CitiField by then), with that lineup. 25?

[plh903]

Johan Santana last three years, and Mets lineup circa 2006, a ton. I'm not sold on either being as overpowering then, however.

Of course, I'm not saying that neither will be at all. Just that a lot could change. But, it could be quite scary, indeed.

[nrmax88]

Yeah your right, Delgado and Lo duca, Alou and Green will most likely be gone by then, or atleast a couple of them, but hopefully by 09 either Milledge, Gomez, or Nando is in the big leagues prducing, your right though, much can happen by 2009

[astralpanda]

I'm guessing Santana has a very subpar year(by his standards). 15-10; 4.40 era; 180 k... And we don't hear about this contract stuff until it's actually over with and it's time to re-sign him.

This is gonna be the first year he has to carry the entire rotation on his back. Without Radke, it'll be interesting to see how he handles things and if the pressure gets to him.

[RotoAuthority]

4.40!!??!??? His performance doesn't correlate to the rest of the rotation. I would say there's less than a 10% chance he posts an ERA of 4.

[plh903]

His PECOTA 10th line is 3.96. That's if he's unlucky and bad.

Dude probably meant 3.40, which would make a lot more sense. Although I see no reason that he would do even that *bad*, none at all.

[Paul AKA twinsfan]

4.40 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! The guy has put up Era's of 2.77 2.87 2.61 3.07 2.99 the last 5 years when he was 22 and didn't have the Change up slider or fastball control he has now and was still learning to pitch he put up a 4.74 era that was 6 years ago. he's been carrying the rotoation the last 2 years he's been the opening day starter. If you knew how he prepared and the hard work he puts in you'd know 4.40 isn't going to happen.

[darkstar1661]

"This is the stupidest article I've ever read. He's not a free agent yet for 2 years. Many teams will offer him 20 million or more. What's the news here?"

~~~ Agreed!

This is 2 years off still, and who’s to say that some other team doesn’t try to buy a championship that year?

Here's a story to write about:

Dec 5, 2008
After a surprising rise to the top of the AL East in 2008 the Devil Rays make the first strike in repeating ~ signing Johan Santana at an unbelievable 7yr/175 million contract; outbidding the Yankees and Mets who were offering in the 5yr/140 range. It looks like saving all that money all those years has paid off for the Rays who now have the best pitcher in baseball as the centerpiece to a team which will attempt to defend their division crown this April…

Whos to say it wont happen anymore than the “Mets @20 a yr” this guys projects for 2 years from now…

[MetFanBen]

Just thought this was worth posting:
the Mets have signed Chan Ho Park to a 1 year deal worth $3 million, according to a Korean newspaper. A girl who lives on my hall at school was able to translate for me. The article is here:
http://news.naver.com/sports/index.nhn?category=mlb&ctg=news&mod=read&office_id=001&article_id=0001543577
Apparently it also says he turned down the 6th starter spot at San Diego, which suggests to me he must have a guaranteed spot in the Mets rotation. I'm not sure how I feel about this, but if pitching half his games at Shea can help him keep the ball in the (chan ho) park, he may be able to keep an ERA in the mid-upper 4s.

[astralpanda]

I know this might be hard for you guys to understand, but Johan Santana is not Jesus. Pitchers have bad years, just about every player does. I did mean 4.40, he will have an off year.

Don't read too much into PECOTA or previous stats. If you know anything about baseball, you'd know anything can happen and there are absolutely no guarantees.

[beeniez]

How does Johan Santana's changeup have an off year? He makes the best hitters in baseball look retarded swinging at it. Why do you think he'll have an off year? Just because you have a feeling? I have a feeling the Braves will win the World Series this year and for the next 42 years without interuption.