Andruw Likely Gone

Well, it is kinda weird, but also kind of necessary. Andruw obviously is not worth more than 15 million per season, but for a team who needs power (padres, dodgers, giants) he may be worth that much. That, of course, is not the case for the braves. It makes sense to just let him walk, use the money to either sign some pitching, a cheaper replacement who hits for average, or put the money towards signing TEX long-term. In another move, since we will have an opening in center, I am really becoming open to the idea of trading a bullpen and position play piece for a centerfielder who can hit at the top or bottom of the order for average and play some good defense, such as david dejesus, ryan spilborgs/willy tavares, chris duffy, rocco baldelli, tony gwynn jr., randy winn, ryan freel, so taguchi, reggie willits, travis buck, sign corey patterson or aaron rowand, there are some options (perhaps not patterson) who can provide a much higher average and some good defense at about a 4th of the price. So again, since andruw seems to just be a power threat now, he is not worth an outrageous investment from the braves. It has been great having him, but the production is just not worth the investment any longer it seems.

I can't imagine teams offering $20M per on a long term deal. He'd be worth about $20M per year IF he had his 2006 offensive numbers. That's definitely best case now, and you're talking about a player with range (and offensive production in general) that's going to be declining over the life of the contract.

The Braves would be fools to pay that.

This year, Jones was worth about $12M. We can assume his average offensive season over the life of the contract (say 5 years) will be better than this year, maybe something like 30 HR, 90+ RBI, .265/.345/.470.

If he maintained his current defense, and put up those numbers each year, he'd be worth somewhere around $14-15M per. Since his defense will decline a bit with age, push that down a bit.

$68M over 5 years sounds about right.

That said, someone will probably offer something like $70M/4.

I could really see a team like the Orioles going after Andruw in the offseason. I don't think they will be re-signing Corey Patterson. It's all in if Andruw wants to come to Baltimore, though. He wants to be on a competitive team, and they'd have to sell pretty hard.

If they were able to make some good trades involving some young talent and guys like Tejada, Daniel Cabrera and Jay Payton to help bring in some better pitching depth, they could possibly be a competitive team next season.

Their lineup could look something like:

1. B. Roberts - 2B
2. T. Redman - LF
3. N. Markakis - RF
4. A. Jones - CF
5. K. Millar - 1B
6. A. Huff - DH
7. R. Hernandez - C
8. M. Mora - 3B
9. L. Hernandez - SS

With front three SP's of Bedard, Guthrie and Loewen as well... it looks pretty nice.

As far as suitors I like the Orioles, Dodgers, Padres, Giants, Rangers & White Sox... And "maybe" teams would also include Seattle (move Ichiro back to right) and Washington (big name for their new ballpark)...

And I must say as a Braves fan, I'm glad we are not going to pay him that kind of money... After watching him all season I can definitively say that all the runs he saves in the outfield is NOWHERE NEAR the amount of runs he costs us at the plate. He's been playing the most physically demanding position in baseball for 10 full seasons now. He is 30 going on 38 and by year 3 or 4 of his contract his defense will start to become an issue (to go along with his already declining bat). I enjoyed watching him play over the years but for all the Braves fans who "can't imagine life without Andruw Jones" I have 2 things to say to you:

1)How many championships did we win with Andruw patrolling center?

&

2)WHAT HAVE YOU DONE FOR ME LATELY???

Does anyone know if Randy Winn is still under contract with the Giants? I think him (or even Dave Roberts) would be a good 1 year option...

Jones will be a tremendous bust. His defense will continue to regress along with his speed.

Anyone who pays the guy more than $13m/year is just crazy.

As for him being worth $12m THIS year how did you arrive at that number? The guy barely hit above the Mendoza line. His 26 homers is decent. However, his Slugging % is LOWER than Kenny Lofton's.

Teams would be better off with Rowand at 4/40. The guy will give you .280 w/ 15Hr's and play a good CF. More importantly, he will save you $25-30m over 4 years. Granted he doesn't have the upside of Jones, but he also doesn't carry anywhere near the same risk.

DeJesus isn't worth anything?

Um, ok. His OPS is 17out of 27 CFs with 400 ABs or more. That is higher than Andruw Jones, Melky Cabrera, Jacque Jones, and Coco Crisp and within .015 of Damon and Matthews.

Oh, and DDJ makes $2.5M in 2008, $3.6M in 2009, $4.7M in 2010, and $6M in 2011.

Tell me again how that isn't a valuable player to ANY team?

Wasn't Andruw Jones offensively pretty much like Sammy Sosa this year, if not worse? And because he can play defense he is worth how much?? I'm confused...

Jay Payton may bring in pitching depth, but it'll be in the 2007 Paul Shuey mold.

Don Coburleone: Wynn is locked up with SF thru '09.

I generally go by BP's numbers for what a player is worth.

His total WARP this year is about 3.6, which is worth about $12M.

They say he's 14 runs above replacement on offense, and 18 on defense (by comparison, last year he was 49 runs above replacement on offense).

It kills me to see Braves fans rip this guy. He had an off-year at the plate, sure. And don't get me wrong, it was brutal. But people bounce back from years like that all the time.

And he's still 4th in MLB for putouts as a CF, on pace for over 400. Reports of his decline seem to have been greatly exaggerated. :-)

But anyhow, I don't think he'll be in Atlanta next year. The only case in which he would is if he accepts arbitration, and he's indicated that he wants a multi-year deal, so I don't see that happening. Personally, I'd like to see the Braves get DeJesus or Crisp or some other glove guy who can hit 8th and provide strong defense. A cheap option that'll maintain a high defensive standard is all we need; the offense will be in the top 5 of the NL even with pitcher production from the 8th hole.

DeJesus, outside this year, has been a near .800 OPS center fielder with above average defense. That is very valuable. He also has a very nice contract for the next few years, I don't think one down year is going to lower is value that much.

I don't see the Braves being a good trade partner, not much there except low in the system. The Marlins or Rangers are probably better trade scenarios.

If Dru decides to leave Atlanta, what are the chances that the Braves could get Curtis Granderson from Detroit. I thought I read somewhere that the Tigers have some interest in Renteria and the two teams have a steady history of making deals.