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« Nats Talk To Boras About Patterson And Andruw | Main | Odds and Ends: Jenkins, Piazza, Kuroda »
UPDATE, 11-29-07 at 10:30pm: The Yankees' offer stands at Ian Kennedy, Melky Cabrera, and maybe Jose Tabata. Phil Hughes is a big upgrade over Kennedy, and the Twins are insisting on him. Meanwhile the Red Sox are still pushing Coco Crisp while the Twins are holding out for Jacoby Ellsbury. If one of the teams cracks on Hughes or Ellsbury this thing might get done.
UPDATE, 11-29-07 at 8pm: Despite what Jon Heyman said, the Boston Globe's Nick Cafardo seems to think the Red Sox are still in the lead for Santana. It would be the package named below by Olney. Nothing is done yet, as Santana's agent hasn't been approached about an extension. Meanwhile Cafardo indicates that the Yankees may part with Robinson Cano after all. One other note: Peter Gammons suggests that the Sox would have to redo Josh Beckett's reasonable deal if they acquire Santana and give him $20MM+.
UPDATE, 11-29-07 at 2:50pm: Buster Olney suggests the same package as Walters from the Red Sox, except with Michael Bowden rather than Masterson. However the fourth player is still undetermined. He also notes that the Yankees are simultaneously talking to the Twins.
UPDATE, 11-29-07 at 1pm: The Boston Herald has a bit more. Basically the Red Sox are only willing to include one of Ellsbury/Buchholz/Lester, while the Twins want two from that group.
FROM 11-29-07 at 8:30am:
Shooter Charley Walters is back with a new column of rumors and whatnot. Remember, Walters was the one saying the Garza for Delmon rumor wouldn't die.
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Nice catch, Andrew. Hope Cashman et all stick to their guns and keep Hughes's name out of this deal. Just not worth it.
Posted by: Not Joe Morgan | November 29, 2007 at 09:40 PM
Hehehe, did I seriously see Yankee and BoSox fans talking about their minor league systems as though they are sometype of endless gold-mine other teams only wish they could tap? See, I look back over the years and don’t really see much more than fillers with hype coming out of either camp ~ but ok…
And:
“Thanks for delivering the knock-out blow to yourself. That comment proved how much of an idiot you really are. Can you please name the 3 MI prospects on your favorite team that are under the age of 25 and posted a line close to 300/385/500 in AA or AAA? Ok, thats what i thought.”
Hummm… Franklin Gutierrez, Ben Francisco, Shin-Soo Choo, Jonathan Van Every, Trevor Crowe, Jordan Brown ~ and without looking them up I think Ryan Mulhern and Asdroobal Cabrera might have gotten really, really close with Ryan maybe falling a bit short on OBP and AsCab maybe being a tiny bit off the SLG…
Do I win a prize ~ I got between 6 to 8 I think…
Without being a smartass though, yeah ~ it is an impressive line…
Posted by: darkstar1661 | November 29, 2007 at 09:48 PM
ur pushin' it with Van Every too...so u got about 4....but Lowrie was still Minor league all-star SS
Posted by: matsuzakasan | November 29, 2007 at 10:06 PM
The four that qualify are Gutierrez, Francisco, Brown and Cabrera....good research though
Posted by: matsuzakasan | November 29, 2007 at 10:09 PM
Suddenly the Johan trade is looking expensive for the BoSox.
They will absolutely have to include Ellsbury or Buchholz if the Yanks add in Cano. Additionally, if Gammons is right, tacking on another $10m+ year to Beckett's deal is steep.
Between Beckett and Johan you are talking about $35m+ per year in new salary. Throw in the luxury tax and that number creeps up to about $50m in new expenses. That might make me think twice about doing the deal. Johan is a stud but I'm pretty sure he isn't worth $50m.
Posted by: bjsguess | November 29, 2007 at 10:09 PM
darkstar - isn't Gutierrez an OF?
Posted by: maximumpotential | November 29, 2007 at 10:11 PM
Been saying it all along - Theo has no legit interest in trading for Santana. He's just doing whatever he can to drive the Yankees price as high as possible.
Posted by: tolo316 | November 29, 2007 at 10:14 PM
CANO SHOULD BE UNTOUCHABLE ... PERIOD!!!!
The Yanks should see what they got with the kids in the rotation and pursue Sabathia.
Posted by: rossdfarian | November 29, 2007 at 10:22 PM
oh, its off the top of my head ~ huge Indians fan so...
And I didnt look it up but I am almost 100% Choo did it, didnt he? Well, I'm guessing you looked it up because you replied with it ~ but I could have swore... What did he fall short on, the SLG? Nah, I really am sure he did do it ~ please check it again…
I’m guessing Crowe didn’t make it because he struggled this year ~ forgot about that earlier…
Mulhern was really close I imagine, he does have the OBP ability ~ just not 100% sure it did actually show up again recently…
Pushing it with VanEvery?
And I’m actually not sure it’s the only guys in the Tribe’s system with those numbers ~ but it’s the ones off the top of my head that both have the ability and have shown numbers like that… I can probably come up with about 5-6 in the Dodger system as well, atleast 3-4 in the Anaheim farm and a few select form other teams…
While impressive, its not as hard as you think. It doesn’t hurt his value completely ~ but it doesn’t instantly make value either ~ has he been able to show numbers like that for more than one season? That is the real question…
And I refreshed before posting ~ what happened to your other post??? How did you have a post deleted? Type-key is trippy sometimes and I am going nuts with this *"youre logged in" - post - "Registration is required." - refresh - "youre logged in" - loggout - log in* game I play with every single post I make... I don’t know why I keep clicking the “keep me logged in for 2 weeks” button as if it will somehow start working… Ahhhh…..
Maximum ~ yeah, he's our ML RF now...
Posted by: darkstar1661 | November 29, 2007 at 10:26 PM
Oh, oh, oh ~ Choo was hurt this year a bit! Maybe look at 2006 for his line matching that…
Posted by: darkstar1661 | November 29, 2007 at 10:28 PM
Stay strong Cashman!!!!
Save Phil Hughes.
Posted by: henry14theking | November 29, 2007 at 10:30 PM
yeah I agree there are many guys with those numbers....I dont know what that other guy meant...I would say for SS's though his #'s are way above average and the Twins need a SS...
Choo .260 .328 .375
Posted by: matsuzakasan | November 29, 2007 at 10:32 PM
Sounds like the Yankees think they can get Santana for nothing. Whatever... they aren't obligated to make a legit offer. I guess the Twins at this point will just plan to letting Santana walk, hopefully competing in 2008.
Posted by: jehu | November 29, 2007 at 10:39 PM
So basically, it comes down to who blinks first: do the Sox add Ellsbury or do the Yankees add Hughes? My money is on the Yankees.
Posted by: tolo316 | November 29, 2007 at 10:40 PM
ok, that choo line has to be from the injury ~ look again man, I'm thinking you will find it either from 06 in AAA or 05 in AA while he was with Seattle still... Give me those lines if you dont mind...
Yeah, his numbers at SS are impressive ~ but again, are they just in 2007? If he didnt hit near that in 06 then I would really, really question his ability to match it again. (I just cant look it up ATM or would myself...)
Posted by: darkstar1661 | November 29, 2007 at 10:42 PM
If you read Posada's interview, he's willing to drive the rookies out of NY if it means getting Santana.
Posted by: SierraM | November 29, 2007 at 10:46 PM
the only reason lester, lowrie, crisp and bowden trumps kennedy, melky and horne/tabata is not simply because the sox are offering one more player
according to andrew over here the twins find crisp absolutely unappealing, and he also states several times lester is not a valuable piece I find it hard to believe that if those statements are true the twins will agree to a lesser deal simply because it includes more players
then again we all know it isnt true and frankly out of all the yankee homers on here (even the ones who would go down on melky if he let them) andrew seems to be the biggest homer
:)
Posted by: GoBoSox420 | November 29, 2007 at 11:01 PM
I think it's because Posada's tired of losing.
He says plainly that the Yankees need an ace.
Without an ace the Yankees are not gonna touch the sox next year.
Posted by: BaseBallz | November 29, 2007 at 11:02 PM
I tend to agree that the Red Sox are doing this to up the ante for a Santana/Yankees deal, mainly because the Sox are not going to offer Santana more than 4-5 years on a contract.
Yankees will have to give up Cano and Hughes or Cabrera, Kennedy and another player. The Twins would be stupid to accept Kennedy and Cabrera for Santana. They could do better when Santana becomes a free agent.
I still think Yankees still have the inside advantage, mainly they can offer Santana the longest term contract with the most money, and Santana or his agent will probably torpedo a Boston 4 year contract with a fifth year option. Cano and Hughes would be a great pick up for the Twins, and awful for the Yankees.
I see the Red Sox giving up Ellsbury before they give up Buchholz. However I still think the trade won't go through, because Santana can get better money from either New York baseball team than from the Red Sox.
Posted by: okojo | November 29, 2007 at 11:42 PM
Ahh, more of the usual from Sox fans. Kennedy, Cabrera and Tabata/Horne is 'nothing', while Crisp, Lester, Lowrie and Bowden is a 'really good deal'. What is wrong with you people?
Guys like Jed Lowrie and Brandon Moss come around every season. They are truly nothing special. I remember well the argument that Brandon Moss would be a solid outfielder for years to come, since then he's been downgraded to a 4th outfielder, maybe. People who are *expecting* Lowrie to be a solid cheap shortstop for 6 years are similarly delusional. He is a cheap throw-in who just had his first decent minor league season. Wilson Betemit has more upside and actual major league success. He would trump Lowrie in an instant should Cashman want to include him. But it doesn't matter, because players like Betemit and Lowrie don't actually matter.
The deals are centered around Cabrera and Crisp, and Kennedy and Melky. They are similar, but Crisp is making $5 million and putting up OPS's of .718 in his peak years, which is pathetic. He is less than valuable to the now extremely cost-conscious Twins unless Epstein decides to front 80% of his remaining salary, at which point he would be better served to just keep him as a defensive replacement, pinch-runner and 4th outfielder. Melky Cabrera bettered Crisp's numbers the past two years, but at the league minimum and at the age of 21 and 22. He is very projectable, and already hits better. Funny how things look when you actually compare the two players, instead of blasting Melky because he didn't put up elite numbers at the age of 22. Wait a minute! Coco Crisp put up even worse numbers at that age! So reference 3 and 4 years ago if you will, but realize that Crisp was as 'worthless' as Cabrera when he was 22. Probably even moreso.
Anyway, Lester has a higher ceiling than Kennedy. He throws harder. But he hasn't put up good numbers in any league since 2005. Meanwhile, Kennedy blazed a trail through the minor leagues, becoming the minor league pitcher of the year in his first full professional season. He has a strong pedigree and put up elite numbers at USC. He doesn't throw as hard, but is already more major-league ready than Lester, who while having major league experience, it's not really something to write home about. Yes, if Lester obtains control, he could be great. But you could say if Kennedy gained a few ticks on his fastball, he could be great. The facts are, Lester is not great. He is not even good. He has never shown any semblance of control, or improvement of control. Could he learn it? Maybe. But why would the Twins want a maybe when they already have someone they would slot in right next to guys like Kevin Slowey and Glen Perkins (even though he has surpassed them already). Why would the Twins want a project?
The Sox are not serious in their trade proposals. Theo has never been great at trading players, and his and Minnesota's lame attempt to get the Yankees to up their bid most likely won't work. It will take the Dodgers, who are not interested in giving up anyone, or the Angels, who have more starting pitching than anyone in years, to get the Yankees to up their offer. Somehow, I don't see it.
Best case for all involved: Johan stays with the Twins for 2008 and maybe contends for a playoff spot, and then sets records in free agency.
Posted by: Andrew | November 29, 2007 at 11:50 PM
Hahaha, I started to actually read that as if I might get something valuable out of it ~ then I read this line about three sentences into the third paragraph…
“He is less than valuable to the now extremely cost-conscious Twins”
…and began to think my reservations about what I was reading could be true. I decided I had to find out who wrote this before going any further ~ surprise, surprise…
Anyway, what gives you the idea that the Twins are trying to pinch every last penny? Because they are weary of paying any one player over 15M a year? That does not mean they don’t have money to spend…
The rest of the post is questionable as well… What makes you think Melky is more projectable then Crisp? The fact that he’s younger? That doesn’t mean squat if he doesn’t have ability ~ and his Minor-League numbers tell us that yes, he infact does not have the ability! Coco atleast continually posted 350+ OBP and 425+ OPS in the minors ~ I think Melkey only did it once, in his second trip through AAA…
The rest? Well does it even matter if anyone replies? Will you listen to it or continue to just repeat all the stuff that has been debunked over and over and over again? I mean we have gone over all of this before, yet youre still posting it now…
Posted by: darkstar1661 | November 30, 2007 at 12:23 AM
"Was he holding Ellsbury's laptop?"
"(By the way, I always enjoy when the guy also at a computer tells statheads to go outside. It makes me smile, but its one of those "thank god I'm not him" pitying kinds of smiles.)"
"I tried to figure out what you were alluding to but I couldn't. Care to fill me in so I can respond?"
That's what nrmaxx was alluding to.
"Theo has never been great at trading players, and his and Minnesota's lame attempt to get the Yankees to up their bid most likely won't work."
That's so true, I can't think of one instance to prove you wrong.
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/news/040731garciaparra.html
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/news/031128schilling.html
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/news/051124beckett.html
Posted by: ArodSucksAtLife | November 30, 2007 at 12:28 AM
"Word is bond son. Rofl. What this site would do without Arodsucksatlife and Notjoemorgan is beyond me. These dudes are classic."
I tried to figure out what you were alluding to but I couldn't. Care to fill me in so I can respond?"
No disrespect, just meant u guys post some funny shyt. For instance youre steal references to Clay Buccholz are always good for a chuckle.
Posted by: nrmax88 | November 30, 2007 at 12:34 AM
It absolutely blows my mind that Andrew expects us to take his opinion as fact
If the twins were so displeased with the sox offer why have they not jumped on that kennedy package?
You love berating sox prospects and any rsn members who support their prospects, Andrew you do it every time you have an opportunity. I guess you're blinding homerism has rendered you useless when it comes to evaluating rumored trades.
It's ok though..when all is said and done nobody cares what you have to say..just like nobody read that 12 page essay you typed about a team and prospects you simply do not like
Posted by: GoBoSox420 | November 30, 2007 at 12:40 AM
"Are you kidding me? The twins aren't stupid and they don't want Crisp who sucks."
Yeah..... they want Melky..... who sucks.
Posted by: nrmax88 | November 30, 2007 at 12:42 AM
"Was he holding Ellsbury's laptop?"
Just read that... but see, thats classic :)
Posted by: nrmax88 | November 30, 2007 at 12:43 AM
Something to remember about Cano. He wont be so cheap very soon, he will be arb eligible and be getting a big pay raise. I wonder if the twins are looking more for guys with even less service time that they can control 5 or 6 years.
Posted by: nrmax88 | November 30, 2007 at 12:45 AM
I'd just like to see some hard evidence that proves a few things
Kennedy > lester please prove it
Melky > crisp andrew prove this as well
I'd like some sort of valid reason to explain why the yanks havent included another 2nd/3rd tier prospect if their current offer is only one player away from "trumping" the sox offer
Basically can you prove any of this biased drivel you spout on a continual basis? Or are you simply an idiot?
Posted by: GoBoSox420 | November 30, 2007 at 12:58 AM
I'd just like to see some hard evidence that proves a few things
Kennedy > lester please prove it
Melky > crisp andrew prove this as well
I'd like some sort of valid reason to explain why the yanks havent included another 2nd/3rd tier prospect if their current offer is only one player away from "trumping" the sox offer
Basically can you prove any of this biased drivel you spout on a continual basis? Or are you simply an idiot?
Posted by: GoBoSox420 | November 30, 2007 at 01:01 AM
NRMax,
Nah, I think they would be fine with anyone in the 2-6 years of control range. They can always sign a rather friendly semi-longterm deal to guys like Cano if he was brought in…
I would imagine they are not trading Johan to rebuild ~ but to get better (ala Seattle with the Johnson deal). They have the tools already in place to do so with the ML-Ready pitching depth, its best to take advantage of it as soon as you can... They will probably look to break in the new stadium with atleast some type of run at a playoff spot…
Posted by: darkstar1661 | November 30, 2007 at 01:03 AM
I'd just like to see some hard evidence that proves a few things
Kennedy > lester please prove it
Melky > crisp andrew prove this as well
I'd like some sort of valid reason to explain why the yanks havent included another 2nd/3rd tier prospect if their current offer is only one player away from "trumping" the sox offer
Basically can you prove any of this biased drivel you spout on a continual basis? Or are you simply an idiot?
Posted by: GoBoSox420 | November 30, 2007 at 01:05 AM
Just seems like many people are comparing the wrong people. Crisp and Cabrera, to the Twins, are the same guy. Both are essentially MLB average CFs to fill a defensive hole left by Hunter. But while Cabrera is an average CF collecting pauper's wages, Crisp is way too expensive to merely serve that purpose.
The real targets for the Twins, all along, have been Ellsbury and Cano. As expected, both started out as being "untouchable". We'll see if they stay that way.
Right or wrong, the Twins value Hughes and Kennedy over Lester and/or Buchholz. That means that if Ellsbury and Cano remain off the table, the Yankees have the upper hand... if they're willing to give up Hughes and Kennedy, along with Cabrera. The Twins would consider that deal long before they would consider an offer of Buchholz, Lester and Crisp (for example). I doubt adding Lowrie really would tip the scales in Boston's favor, as long as Ellsbury is not part of the deal.
People also are giving the money angle way too much weight. The Twins can absorb close to an 80 million dollar payroll in 2008 and more beyond that. If Santana is traded, along with the other players who won't be returning, they'll have 30-40 million of room under their self-imposed "cap". Plenty of room for extensions to Morneau, Cuddyer and, yes, even a Cano when he hits arbitration. What they shouldn't (and likely won't) do is spend money to pay Crisp to play CF when they can get a cheap kid to play the position with similar results.
I think any report of an inevitable deal that includes Crisp is wishful thinking being leaked to the media.
Posted by: JimCrikket | November 30, 2007 at 01:10 AM
Go BoSox, take a look at baseball-reference or any other site with minor league stats. Kennedy's minor league stats are DRASTICALLY better than Lester's. Kennedy's major league stats are also a lot more impressive, but of course it's only 3 starts, so it doesn't mean a lot.
As for the Melky vs Crisp comparisons, they're about equal now. Crisp is going into his age 28 season, meaning he's likely at his peak now. Melky is going into his age 22 season. That's about the time players usually start developing power. If you look at Crisp's major and minor league numbers, his slugging kept improving until around when he turned 25.
Posted by: yanksfan | November 30, 2007 at 02:26 AM
"Right or wrong, the Twins value Hughes and Kennedy over Lester and/or Buchholz. "
I dont know where you came up with that but that just isnt true. First of all you woudl be hard pressed to find someone that woudl say that buccholz is not better if atleast equal to the potential of Hughes, and you couldnt find ANYONE that would say that Kennedy is better. As for Lester he has better stuff than Kennedy, but needs to work on his control.. Overall your assessment is just plain wrong
Posted by: theMATTador | November 30, 2007 at 05:11 AM
Did anyone actually Read Andrews assesment? I picked this piece out of it for your amusement
"People who are *expecting* Lowrie to be a solid cheap shortstop for 6 years are similarly delusional. He is a cheap throw-in who just had his first decent minor league season. Wilson Betemit has more upside and actual major league success. He would trump Lowrie in an instant should Cashman want to include him. But it doesn't matter, because players like Betemit and Lowrie don't actually matter."
Sorry Andrew, but Lowrie is the Sox best positional prospect besides Ellsbury. He didnt have a great year in 2006 because he was injured, but the expectations for him had always been very high. He profiles to be a similar hitter to Pedroia with a little more power.
Posted by: themfightnwords | November 30, 2007 at 05:24 AM
If this is all they're going to get, keep him and compete this year.
Also, did the Twins really turn down the offer of Kemp/Kershaw? Because that's looking a lot better than what the Sox and Yanks are ponying up.
Posted by: Something Profound | November 30, 2007 at 06:46 AM
some paul lo duca news that should be up on the main mlbtraderumors.com site. There has not been much said about him and he's almost forgotten. Same goes with the Jays.
http://www.globesports.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20071129.wspt-jays-meetings29/GSStory/GlobeSportsBaseball/home
Posted by: waterwalk | November 30, 2007 at 08:16 AM
how about a 3 team deal with the twins getting Cano, Tabata, and Encarnacion from the reds, the yanks get santana, and Kennedy plus a young minor league guy to the reds?
Posted by: carolina03 | November 30, 2007 at 08:18 AM
MATT, the "and/or" I used was inappropriate. My point is that it isn't a question of Lester vs Kennedy. It's Hughes AND Kennedy favored over Lester AND Buchholz. Again, not saying they're right but that's what the Twins seem to be focusing on.
And I really don't think it matters as long as it's Crisp that Boston is insisting on including over Ellsbury. The Yankees have a wider variety of options as long as they include either Cano or both Hughes and Kennedy. I don't think Minnesota takes Lester and Buchholz in a package without Ellsbury.
Posted by: JimCrikket | November 30, 2007 at 08:23 AM
Gotcha, NRMax. Had no idea if that was pro or con (given that a couple people here seem to not think I'm awesome).
Any other Yankees/Sox fans wake up happy to see their team has not yet "won" the bidding for Johan? I did.
Posted by: Not Joe Morgan | November 30, 2007 at 08:35 AM
It cracks me up how the Yankees and Sox fans keep going back and forth with how much the other's prospects suck. The fact of the matter remains that this deal has nothing to do with guys like Cabrera or Crisp or Tabata or Lowrie. It has everything o to do with Ellsbury, Buchholz, Cano, and Hughes - "the untouchables". Whichever team includes any combo of those players first wins the Johan Sweepstakes - it's as plain and simple as that.
Posted by: tolo316 | November 30, 2007 at 08:46 AM
The Red Sox and Yankees fans are delusional.
The fact they have the gall to think any of these young prospects who have yet to prove anything of significance in the MLB are untouchable.
We are talking about the best pitcher in baseball people. Almost a modern version of Sandy Koufax. The man is 28 years old, and barring injury a shoe-in hall of famer!
You are telling me These prospects are untouchable?? Unbelievable. Honestly, you are being delusional.
The Twins are not stupid. It will take Ellsbury and Bucholz, or Hughes and Cano for a deal to get done. The Twins will let him walk and take their pair of #1 picks if they don't get AT LEAST that value. They have had success with that route in the past, and will no doubt choose the draft picks over these crappy prospect offers being talked about now.
Yanks fans, are you honestly telling me you think Hughes is untouchable? He is not even close to a sure thing yet...Unreal, and I'm shaking my head.
Posted by: fireforge | November 30, 2007 at 09:33 AM
My point is this
These yankee fans that act like they post on Brian Cashmans myspace need to shut their mouths.
Nobody knows if the twins value kennedy over lester or buch over hughes, nobody knows what the offers really are and nobody knows what the hell is going to happen.
People need to stop acting as if their opinion is fact, simply because you hate the other team and don't like their prospects does not mean everyone shares your biased opinion
Andrew for example continually spouts the same useless drivel, its his opinion but I guess he thinks we agree with him or something
Posted by: GoBoSox420 | November 30, 2007 at 12:34 PM