Latest Johan Santana Rumors

If the Red Sox trade for Santana, what is their rotation?

Santana
Beckett
Matsuzaka
Schilling
Lester or Bucholz?

With Wakefield spot starting or in relief?
A while ago I think Tim noted the possibility of a six man rotation. I would expect this to increase Dice-K's numbers, as the splits indicate he was a world better with the extra day of rest. However, many pitchers prefer a five game rotation, and the loss of starts would factor into all of their Cy Young potential (which Beckett and Santana much be concerned about).

Also, will Beckett be less likely to sign an extensive if he isn't the ace of the staff? Will the Red Sox be less likely to offer ace money?

With Miller and Maybin both going for Cabrera, I find it difficult to believe that the Red Sox are that set on not trading two of their top prospects for Santana. I can understand not moving two top pitching prospects, but Ellsbury and Lester does not seem too crazy of a price to pay to assure the Cy Young stays in Boston for at least half a decade.

I'm not a Yankees or Red Sox fan, but if the Red Sox do get Santana, the Yankees will have no one to blame but themselves when the Red Sox win like 5 more titles in the next 10 years. Hank Steinbrenner is an idiot. "We're not gonna go past monday", STFU you overweight idiot. Its Johan Santana, he's the only player you do give up the farm for. Oh well, I guess thats what they get.

Josh SF (D1), what do you mean he never had the numbers? In 2005 he had a 2.61 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, and struck out 163 in 148 IP with only 10 HR. He was Eastern League Pitcher of the Year.

Lester was brought up a bit early in 2006, pitched decently considering he was only 22 and pitching with back pain, and then was diagnosed with cancer. Take a look at Lester's major league game log from 2006:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/gl.cgi?n1=lestejo01&year=2006&t=p

After 8 starts he had a 2.38 ERA, .224 BAA and 37 K in 45 1/3 IP. His only problem was his high BB count (29), which brought his WHIP up to 1.43, and some wildness can be expected from a young guy who just reached the majors.

Pettitte had a BB/9 of 2.53 in the minors, and 2.881 over his big league career. Lester's minor-league mark is a disgusting 3.78, and he's at 4.78 in the bigs. Worst is that there's never been any real sign of improvement, and given what we hear about the kid's stuff, his strikeout rates are awful.

There's nothing here to be optimistic about except his arm and left-handedness, along with the whole 'coming back from cancer' deal. I know character's big and all...but talent's bigger. Nothing but respect for the guy but that doesn't make me think any more of him as a pitcher...

What the hell is wrong with Typepad?!? No names in the posts and I had to log out and back in TWICE before I could post for the first time!

"Josh SF (D1), what do you mean he never had the numbers? In 2005 he had a 2.61 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, and struck out 163 in 148 IP with only 10 HR. He was Eastern League Pitcher of the Year."

Yeah, and that was pretty good...except he did it largely on an unsustainably low hit-rate of 6.92 per nine. He chopped over 1 hit per nine off his 2004 total and his BB/9 remained a lousy 3.46. You're right, he was good...I just think it was something of an outlier.

Also wanna clarify that his K/9 isn't bad at all...it's just not that great, either. No. 3 maybe? I'd rather get younger on the offensive side of the ball at this point, like anon kinda just said.

(PS: I was the one who posted Pettitte's numbers...typepad sucks today)

"I'd rather get younger on the offensive side of the ball at this point, like anon kinda just said."

Yeah, I totally agree with that, especially since the Sox have an aging lineup... should be good for a couple more years, but then there's giong to be a steep decline. I've said all along that the Sox's strength is their depth of pitching, and they need to trade from that strength. ALthough I do think Lester has huge potential, I actually would prefer to see Lester traded than Ellsbury, just because I think the Sox need Ellsbury more.

I think that's correct, the Sox could move Lester in a package to get one of the Rangers catchers, or to address CF. Ellsbury's value will never be higher, and while I'd prefer to hang on to him, I am comfortable trading him for Santana. Coco can still play great defense, or maybe they sneak in and get Rowand on a 3 year deal around $15M per and still trade Coco. They are in the drivers seat and can go in so many directions because of their depth.

I thnk he may have been referring to Taylor Teagarden in addition to Saltalamachhia. Teagarden hit about 28 homeruns in double-A and while he mostly DH'd due to an injury he has a very strong arm from behind the plate when healthy.

If the Twins were smart they would try to talk to the Dodgers or another NL club that might have the pieces they need in return for Santana. They would be wise to take even a slightly worse deal from an NL team. Any team that trades for Santana will likely have to give him a 5-7 year extension for the trade to happen. If the Twins deal Santana to the Red Sox or the Yankees they can kiss any hopes of getting out of the first round of the playoffs goodbye for 5 years.

"the Yankees will have no one to blame but themselves when the Red Sox win like 5 more titles in the next 10 years"

and the Yankees know first hand that. unbeatable teams on paper rarely turn out that way.

it is indeed a very scary rotation. but if they do something along the lines of Ellsbury / Lowrie / Masterson and another decent prospect. they would essentially be throwing their future offense out the window after Manny / Ortiz leave and/ or decline.

it's a steeper tradeoff then some people seem to suggest. yeah pitching wins. but a great pitching team with no offense won't win either (see 03 Dodgers) and pitching is also less stable health / performance wise.

it's a big gamble either way for whatever team involved.

Josh SF (D1), I forgot to comment on this earlier:

"Also wanna clarify that his K/9 isn't bad at all...it's just not that great, either. No. 3 maybe?"

Before 2006 Lester's career minor league K/9 was 8.65; that's a lot better than a #3. in 2006 he jumped from AA to AAA and the tougher competition dropped his numbers (still at 8.29 K/9); then after only 11 starts he was bumped to the majors (because the Sox had serious injury issues that year). So his K/9 did drop, and I'm sure the cancer and the related back pain didn't help.

He did show some improvement in the second half of 2007, getting his K/9 over 7 again. In his last 5 regular-season appearances he had 25 K in 23 2/3 IP. Once he's got his full strength back, who's to say he can't sustain an 8.5 K/9?

"The Sox could extend Varitek by a year or two and then have Teagarden take over (while possibly taking over the backup catcher role in '09- spelling Varitek every 5th day or so)."

That's true, and the Sox have already said they want to extend Varitek before Spring Training:

http://www.projo.com/redsox/content/projo_20071205_varitek.6cd12b2d.html

But again, why couldn't they go with internal options like Kottaras and/or Brown in the same scenario? Both are closer to the majors than Teagarden.

Neither Kottaras or Brown have the upside of Teagarden. Kottaras did not impress at all this year, and brown looks like a backup catcher at best(probably a career minor leaguer) .

Teagarden may be a couple of years away, but he has star potential. He may turn out to be a bust too, but he has a high upside.

"Kottaras so far is kind of looking like a bust, he never had a high point at all lost year."

"Kottaras did not impress at all this year"

Kottaras' 2007 second-half numbers in AAA Pawtucket: .318/.389/.582/.971, 6 HR, 21 RBI, 20 Runs in only 110 AB.

Teagarden looks to have great upside. But Kottaras looks strong too, and he's closer to the majors - that means a lot. Teagarden only has 105 AB at the AA level; he's minimum 2 years away, and probably 3 is more likely.

There is no reason the Sox can't resign Varitek for a couple of years, have Kottaras spend 2008 in AAA and then come up in 2009 and back up Varitek for a couple seasons. As Mr_Punch pointed out, Teagarden could easily turn out to be a bust - in fact, he has as much chance of being a bust as Kottaras, and maybe more since he has more levels ahead of him to prove himself in.

So long Ellsbury. Long live Santana. Ellsbury's signing with Boras makes me think we'd be better off getting rid of him now, anyway. Crisp is perfectly fine and we're lucky to have someone as good as him.

I think both the Yanks and Red Sox have done well by themselves for not including Lester and Ellsbury or Hughes/Kennedy/Cabrera. Let's remember, what both teams are really trading for is the right to sign a guy who is only a year away from free agency. If neither team gives in, they can keep their prospects and sign this guy a year from now. So basically, all they're getting is one year of a player. I don't care who that player is, that's not worth 7 protected years of two of your top prospects. Well done Yanks and Sox. Stick to your guns.

I can see your point with the depth issue. If Kotteras can be league average behind the dish, then trading Lester to address other areas may be better. I'm not convinced that he's going to be league average though, which is why I think they could trade Lester for Teagarden, Keep Tek through '10 (with a 2yr extension)and have Teagarden be his backup in '10 and ready to takeover in '11. He may even be ready in 2010.

They will need to find a replacement for 'Tek eventually, and if we can get a top catching prospect soon, it lessens our dependency on the Captain being able to hold up for a number of years to come.

ummm, am i the only one curious why posters name arent displaying anymore? even my own isnt showing up

Do you guys think this trade would be better if the Redsox trade a guy like Coco to another team besides the Twins before the Johan trade. By this they probably get 2-3 quality maybe high quality guys. Then they take out Ellsbury and add those 2 to 4 more guys for Johan. So you got Bucholtz or Lester maybe both Materson Lowrie and the other prospects from the other trade. If Johan goes look for Nathan too follow.

i understand heymans stance on "getting what hes worth" and not taking a lackluster deal, but come on, 4 to 5 above average to extraordinary prospects under team control for as many as 6 years for one potential HOF pitcher, is still stupid. No matter what team it is, thats not worth it.

postscript = if the rangers are considered better suitors then the yankees, then its between the sox and mets, and the minute the mets collapse and give up reyes with their respective deal, he is going to NL new york for absolute certainty, sox wont up the offer for that, especially if it means we blocked the yanks, and he goes to the NL, its a win for us anyway

Rangers have a few prospects don't they? The Tex traded landed them quantity and quality. Gagne brought back decent pieces. Add that to what they already had (granted it wasn't great) and you can probably structure a half-way decent deal.

The bigger hang-up is that I really doubt Johan would want to pitch in Texas. Johan is in the running for the greatest pitcher of his generation. Pitching in Texas would screw up his place in history. Texas is a perpetual under 500 ballclub and the ballpark is absurd for pitchers. Maybe they would move the fences back if Johan came?

I just heard from the Star Tribune that the Twins signed Monroe.

Baseball Prospectus had Texas as the 22nd-ranked team in terms of organizational depth as of February 2007. Did the Teixeira trade really catapult them to a Top 5 system? I'm skeptical.

Correction, trade all the prospects aside for F-Mart. Gomez might be a mirage, or he will take a while to develop.

They should really push for a trade to the Mets they have better talent than the Yankees or the BoSox.But if I were the Twins I would wait for teams like the Dodgers and Angels with better prospects and trade him there.But then again there not asking for Santana.

nrmax88, I respect your opinion as a long time poster here....as well, as you being a Mets fan. I am going to have to disagree with you on this Santana thing. I think he will provide a lot of stability in the rotation for a long time. People thought it was crazy for the sox to give Pedro a 7 year deal, and that worked out pretty well. O.P., Maine, Santana is pretty solid going forward. If he can be had in free agnecy, then we win big time, because you get to keep your beloved Gomez. Johan in the NL...look out!

By the way, can you please tell me why you are so crazy about Gomez? Why will he be a better big league hitter than Martinez? I can't help but seeing Jason Tyner, Alex Ochoa, Roger Cedeno, with the plate approach of Rey Ordonez. In a perfect world he is Beltrans heir, but he just doesnt look it at the dish. Lastings was a lot better at the dish last year as well as this.

I just hate giving a guy soo many years where if anything happens we are efffed big time for half a decade. I like F-Mart also, but I love Gomez. I am banking on the fact that he fills out as he gets closer to 25, and starts hitting some bombs. I mean, we saw how far he can hit a ball, he just swung way to hard at everything this year. I also love how his minor league numbers pretty much keep getting better as he gets older, his obp keeps rising and rising. Gomez, like Milledge is probably more valuable in CF though. I undertsnad looking at Gomez and seeing Alex Escobar or Jay Payton or whatever, which is fair, but I look at his upside and see Alex Rios or Hanley Ramirez. I love Nando also, I just think with the tools and body frame Gomez has, he can be a monster for a long time. He also can lay down a bunt when he is slumping and beat it out which I love. This guy is so explosive it is crazy, but youre right, it is still all potential at this point. I wont argue with people that say Martinez is better, he could be, I am not even saying he isnt, I just love Carlos Gomez and the monster potential that he is.

My problem is that the Twins shouldnt have the kind of leverage people keep saying they do.

1) Johan wants out. The Twins tried to pay him and he said no. He is leaving in a year.
2) He only has one year left, the Twins want people to pay for his past. We should be paying for one 20 win season over 200 innings and a sub 3 era.
3) Whoever trades for him is FORCED to offer him a really awful and risky contract.
4) People keep using the negotiation thing as an advantage for the Twins, why? It isnt as if Minnesota is doing it to be nice, they are giving an extension window because they have to or Johan will call the whole thing off.

"mets trade martinez or gomez,estrada or schneider to the rays mets get santana
twins get kazmir and a prospect"

The Rays probably wouldn't do that for all four of those guys, and if the Mets could get Kazmir, they would never give him up for Santana, Kazmir is already an ace as is. The Rays would want way more than Martinez and Schneider. How about Reyes and Heilman? Kazmir is a 25 year old stud ace that strikes out a ton of guys and has already proven himself in the AL East. The Twins would probably giggle for joy if they could get Kazmir for Santana.

"People thought it was crazy for the sox to give Pedro a 7 year deal, and that worked out pretty well."

Yeah the context of that deal would be far different than that of a Johan deal. For Pedro the Sox only had to give up money, not also top prospects on top of that. Also, the age is a monumental difference. The difference between offering a guy a contract for his age 25-31 years and 29-35 years is a huge, huge difference. Especially for a pitcher, where they can break down really quickly as they come out of their primes. And plus, the Pedro deal was a little crazy.. how many 7 year deals have you seen since then? Practically none. People knew the Red Sox got lucky on how incredibly good Pedro was for the duration of that contract.

All of the projections I have seen for Santana extensions have been for 5 or 6 years.

I would feel more than comfortable giving Santana a 5 year deal.

He might prefer to finish his next contract at 33 and be able to get one more huge pay day, rather than risk becoming a free agent at 35 when he may be in decline.

Indeed. The one assured winner in these negotiations will be Santana.

My mistake, Pedro was traded, and yes Pavano and Armas were both great prospects. On BA's top 100 in 1997 (the year before the trade), Pavano was #17 overall. This is the same situation in that it is an ace pitcher on the block because his team can't afford to sign him long term and hes approaching free agency. In terms of that its essentially identical, but the fact that Pedro was 25 and Johan is 29 changes everything. Pedro was just entering his prime, while Johan is just leaving his. A pitcher is quite, quite different in his age 25-31 years and his age 29-35 years.

The Mitchell report is actually something I haven't seen discussed in regard to Santana, but it could be relevant. The Twins might want to see if any of the players being offered up might have some connection to steriods or HGH before they make a deal. They might have someone on hold until they can make sure the players are clean. If the other GM knows his players are clean, he won't have issue with that, and they'd just stall with the media for a couple weeks until they get whatever info's in the Mitchell report.