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« Melky Held Out Of Winter Ball? | Main | A-Rod Adds Another Agent »
30 year-old Tigers starter Nate Robertson is offering his team a chance to buy low. He just finished an off year (4.76 ERA) and doesn't reach free agency until after the '09 season. But he'd like to sign an extension now to stay in Detroit longer than that.
My guess is that the Tigers might entertain the idea of buying out his two remaining arbitration years plus one year of free agency. A three-year extension in the $27MM range might make sense for both parties. Thoughts?
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4 Years 36MM seams more reasonable.
In exchange for the extra year he may give the team an option year at 12MM.
Posted by: registereduser | December 18, 2007 at 11:11 AM
as a tigers fan, i'm all for it. but then again, i wanted to keep mike maroth, so what do i know?
Posted by: mckeetho | December 18, 2007 at 11:26 AM
nate is worth locking up for a few more years. but the dollars you guys are throwing out there are the same as what's being discussed for a dontrelle extension and also what bonderman got a year ago. these are two players that nate is rightly behind in the rotation. did he have a season that warrants a 150% pay raise?
that said, i'd rather give that money to nate more than a lohse or a silva or whatever muddling back of the rotation guy would otherwise be there to collect the money in a year or two.
Posted by: omarsheets | December 18, 2007 at 12:37 PM
As long as Dontrelle works out and is extended, Porcello looks like he will be big league ready by 2010, we pay Verlander his ace money, and plan on giving Bonderman another contract after 2010, then I say letting Robertson walk after 09 is a no brainer. Our payroll is gonna skyrocket with Verlander and Cabrera extensions. Alternatively, I'd be all for locking Nate up low and shopping Bonderman down the line.
Posted by: earthytones316 | December 18, 2007 at 12:51 PM
As long as Dontrelle works out and is extended, Porcello looks like he will be big league ready by 2010, we pay Verlander his ace money, and plan on giving Bonderman another contract after 2010, then I say letting Robertson walk after 09 is a no brainer. Our payroll is gonna skyrocket with Verlander and Cabrera extensions. Alternatively, I'd be all for locking Nate up low and shopping Bonderman down the line.
Posted by: earthytones316 | December 18, 2007 at 12:53 PM
Tim,
How can you say “He just finished an off year (4.76 ERA)”? Under that theory, he has had 5 “off-years” in the last 6 he has pitched. Lets really, really think about Nate for a sec…
2003 ~ 44.2 IP, 5.44 ERA to 4.30 *LgERA (+1.14), 1.746 WHIP
2004 ~ 196.2 IP, 4.90 ERA to 4.45 *LgERA (+.45), 1.403 WHIP
2005 ~ 196.2 IP, 4.48 ERA to 4.27 *LgERA (+.21), 1.358 WHIP
2006 ~ 208.2 IP, 3.84 ERA to 4.56 *LgERA (-.72), 1.308 WHIP
2007 ~ 177.2 IP, 4.76 ERA to 4.56 *LgERA (+.20), 1.475 WHIP
…So, over his Detroit career he is constantly .20 or more abover the LgAvg ERA and posts a 1.3-1.475 WHIP. That’s rather, well, shitty… Compile it with the fact that he’s now 30YO and you have a guy who isn’t worth signing to a high-dollar contract, he just hasn’t shown he can provide better than LgAvg numbers while proving he can be much, much worse than them…
Posted by: darkstar1661 | December 18, 2007 at 04:58 PM
Robertson can easily make $10MM per when he hits free agency, I don't see why he'd take less money when guys like Carlos Silva are about to make $44MM over 4.
Posted by: astralpanda | December 18, 2007 at 05:28 PM
Let him walk after 09. He'll be easily replaceable. I have my doubts whether he can stay healthy that long anyway. I hope Nate is making smart investments around Wichita in the offseason, because he's a playing out as a footnote in Tiger highlight reels downthe road.
Posted by: coryjwilson | December 18, 2007 at 05:55 PM
“Robertson can easily make $10MM per when he hits free agency, I don't see why he'd take less money when guys like Carlos Silva are about to make $44MM over 4”
Are you kidding? Silva sadly is much better than Robertson, and has shown much, much more ability although not quite as consistent. Here:
2003 ~ 087.1 IP, 4.43 ERA vs 3.99 *LgERA, 1.477 WHIP
2004 ~ 203.0 IP, 4.21 ERA vs 4.73 *LgERA, 1.429 WHIP
2005 ~ 188.1 IP, 3.44 ERA vs 4.45 *LgERA, 1.173 WHIP
2006 ~ 180.1 IP, 5.94 ERA vs 4.47 *LgERA, 1.542 WHIP
2007 ~ 202.0 IP, 4.19 ERA vs 4.33 *LgERA, 1.312 WHIP
Check out those numbers outside of the horrible 06 campaign ~ that’s far superior, 04-05 were great and 07 was on the nice side of LgAvg as well.
Even with 06, this is what the career numbers look like:
CAR ~ 945.0 IP, 4.31 ERA to 4.39 *LgERA (-.08 to Avg), 1.368 WHIP
To Robertson looking like this:
CAR ~ 832.2 IP, 4.60 ERA vs 4.45 *LgERA (+.15 to Avg), 1.411 WHIP
Even Jason Marquis is a bit better than Nate, and he only signed for an average of what, like 7M a year I believe… Robertson is not worth more than 7M really, and 9M max ~ he’s a SP4 type who is rather old at this point and has only had one fluke year of anything resembling true success. He's on the negative side of LgAvg ~ his IP are the only real plus so he should not get 10M or more...
Posted by: darkstar1661 | December 18, 2007 at 06:54 PM
Every team has those "bad" contracts that they wish they could get rid of (right now Inge is it on the Tigers team).
Giving Nate that kind of money just seems like it has a strong possibility of being then next "bad" contract.
Posted by: action000 | December 18, 2007 at 09:43 PM