Carlos Pena Could Sign Long-Term

12MM is chump change. For a Boras client, he'll be expecting the going rate for first-baseman who hit 46 HR a year, in the ballpark of 17MM a year or so. If 4yr/60MM won't sign Matt Holiday, 3yr/36MM won't extend Pena.

Wouldn't it be prudent for the Rays to wait & see which Pena shows up in '08 before throwing millions at him? One year doesn't mean he's a superstar.

I'm not sold at Pena at all and if I were the Rays would be much more inclined to go year to year with him rather than get him signed to a long-term deal. If he can even come close to his 2007 production in 2008 then I would entertain the thought of an extension.

Altho it may seem like Pena came out of nowhere, he didnt. Scouts and coaches all over have been waiting for this guy to break out for years. Thats why even tho he continually struggled, teams kept signing him.

For a long time, people felt Pena's break out was simply a matter of finding the right hitting coach for him. His linedrive rates are strong, and actually show that he can potentially hit for a HIGHER avg.

Pena's power is quite real as well. He wasn't hitting cheapies last year. His 400+ ft HR rates are above avg.

I think he's for real. Worse case scenario. he regresses to hitting "only" 35 HRs with 120 walks. They say his defense regressed last year, but he was once know as a gold glove caliber 1B. Doesnt mean THAT much at 1B, but still a nice to have. With a talented guy like Pena, defense is more a matter of focus and dedication than anything. He hasn't "lost it".

I think 3 for 36 would be a great deal for the Rays.

It would be silly for Pena, even under Boras, to expect $17MM for seasons for which he would be under team control. At most he might want that amount for 2010 forward.

Agreed HeyBlueJay. Pena always had the talent but it never worked out. If he goes .265/35/100 in 2008 then bring out the 3yr/36mm extension.

Yeah there is almost no way that Pena posted another 45 HR, 1000 OPS season next year. A single breakout year can make you a lot of money, but not $17M a year. But I think 3 for 36 is a solid deal for both sides. Personally I think that the Rays should sign him to a contract similar to that, see if he can respond with another big year, and then watch the Mark Teixeira sweepstakes closely. Pretty much all of the big budget teams will be at least somewhat interested in Teixeira, and Pena could end up being a cheaper alternative to teams that lose out on Tex. A year from now if Pena can have another good season, he could have huge trade value to a team like the Yankees or Red Sox. The only problem with that is I doubt they would wanna send top prospects to Tampa.

Boras generally advises his clients to avoid signing low-money long-term deals when they're under control of the team. His strategy is to have his players go year-to-year in arbitration, and then have them cash in once they hit free agency.

If Tampa wants to propose an extension for Pena, they can give him low salaries for the next two years, and then expect to pay him 20MM a year thereafter. I'm expecting 7yr/105MM (Pujols-type money) to get this done, something I don't expect to happen (Boras never low-balls his clients.)

Tampa will never have the money to offer a $100M+ contract. Not even Kazmir would get that kind of offer from them.

I know Boras always wants to take his clients to free agency, but if there was ever a player who shouldn't pass up a chance for an arb/FA buyout type contract, Pena is it. He's 30 years old, and the fact that lots of people have been high on him for a long time doesn't change the fact that he never had a season that was anything close to his 2007 before. And it's not like he never got the chance -- he had 500+ PA in back-to-back seasons with the Tigers, and posted pretty middling numbers for a 1B/DH. He could easily turn back into a pumpkin tomorrow. If the Rays are offering 3/$30 or better, he should jump at it.

Its easy for us to say he should take the 30 mil or wahtever, but its not so easy for these guys.

If he does even remotely close to what he did last year, he's worth more than 12 mil per.

If he signs for 36 mil per, he's risking a LOT of upside. It's a 15-30 million dollar gamble.

If he signs for 3 years, he's a free agent at 34 or so, which givs him a lot less bargaining power for the late 30s years. it's a lot of money.

u might be saying he can risk losing it all. well, he's already guaranteed himself a nice life. even if he goes out and hits .250/.375/.500, stats i think he can EASILY attain, he will make millions.

15-30 mil and more years on his contract may not seem like a big risk on top of a 36 million dollar contract, but to pena and boras, that's a TON of cash and security.

It's an enormous gamble for pena to commit to a short term contract. We don't know whats in his head. he might be EXTREMELY confident he can do it again. He might KNOW that he's figured this league out and simply needs to avoid injury to cash in even biggr down the road.

If he lets it ride one more season, and posts a similar year to last year with slight regression, he can add another year and maybe another 3 mil per on his extension. That people, is a ton of cash.

Given that 1B is historically not the most difficult position to fill (look at how TB found Pena in the first place), there's no way I'd sign the guy now if I was in the Ray's shoes. The odds of him duplicating his season are, IMO, slim and none. And if he does "regress" to something like .250-35-95, so be it. Keep him as long as you control him and move on.

dev,

in less than a full season, Pena was a top 3 1B in the whole league.

Position depth is relevant, but when a player is top 3 at his position, u throw position depth out the window. That player is offering you something only a few human beings on earth can offer.

"If he signs for 3 years, he's a free agent at 34 or so, which givs him a lot less bargaining power for the late 30s years. it's a lot of money."

What are you talking about? He's two years away from free agency. We're talking about a three year deal, which means he'd be a FA at 33 instead of 32. And he gets a ton of money and security in exchange for a small amount of potential income. If he signs and continues to perform well, he'd be "underpaid" for exactly one year.

Arb awards aren't guaranteed. Long term contracts are. If his performance slips this year, or he gets hurt, he could wind up making something like $8M less in 2009 than everyone assumes he'll get. Signing during the arb years transfers risk from the player to the club, not the other way around. Playing out the next two years would be a much bigger risk for a player like Pena than signing a three year deal now.

"when a player is top 3 at his position, u throw position depth out the window"

Why? The drop from top 3 to middle of the pack is less at 1B/DH than it is at any other position. Therefore, having top talent at 1B/DH is less of an advantage than having top talent at any other position. Therefore, you should not be willing to pay as big a premium for top talent at 1B/DH as you would at any other position.