Roberts Deal Trailing Bedard Trade?

While I agree tim for the O's though I really don't have interest in Pie. If we only get one starter out of Bedard I need two for roberts. Marshall and Gallagher.

theres no way that the orioles would send Jones back into SS if they acquired Pie to play CF would they? I don't think that would be a good move but then Luke Scott is put into a DH role which is already quite crowded with Huff, Millar, and unfortunately Gibbons

I don't understand the Orioles interest in Pie. If they pull off this deal with the Mariners then where will Pie play?

I don't think Heyman thought this through all the way.

Yes, I am Joe. You an O's fan? If you get Gallagher...enjoy, he's going to be a good one.

You're right, "baseball354"...I don't understand the interest either, especially if they get Jones in the Bedard trade. I guess they'd have Jones, Pie, and Markakis in the outfield?

I understand Gallagher in the trade, but I would say that Gallagher and Sam Fuld would be more than adequate for two years of Roberts.

Give me a break. Pie and Gallagher for Brian Roberts? That's crap.

Look at it this way. Edgar Renteria cost the Tigers Jair Jurrjens and Gorkys Hernandez. Sean Gallagher is better than Jurrjens, and Pie is better than Hernandez. Renteria is better than Roberts - Renteria plays a MUCH more important defensive position (it's like comparing the offense of a center fielder to a left fielder), Renteria has out EqA-ed Roberts the past two years, and Renteria is not a roided-up liar who went from hitting for Sean Burroughs like power to real power.

Bull, bull, bull. For the Cubs to give up MORE for Brian Roberts than the Tigers did for Renteria, considering Roberts taking steroids can't hold Renteria's jock, is idiocy.

Now Orioles fans kvetch and moan about Roberts is a great guy (when he's not lying) and a good clubhouse guy... who cares? People try and sell that about everybody they trade. I remember Orioles fans saying Melvin Mora was the "face of the franchise" when they gave him his contract, which I knew was a bad idea. Now no one gives a damn about Mora.

Let the Orioles keep Roberts and see how much they can get for him when he goes back to a .750 OPS, 35 steals season. Because after he got off to a hot first half in '07, that's what his second half looked like - more like his career numbers.

Brian Roberts has more in common with RYAN FREEL than any true impact guy

I'm cool on fuld grinch any other ideas.

"I don't understand the Orioles interest in Pie. If they pull off this deal with the Mariners then where will Pie play?"

You know what would be cool, if a team had a minor league system in which they could have players stored like say if they could use an extra year of development or if extras could be cut/traded. Another crazy idea I heard this one time, is that teams should trade for the best players they can get and worry about other stuff later. Nothing is worse than having a lot of talent.

No I like Gallagher I think he'll end up kind of like blanton. I just want to squeeze as much as I can.

I just don't see the hang up with trading Pie and Gallagher for an all-star lead off hitter. The Cubs have sunk so much cash into winning now that it only makes sense to cash in the farm for the right pieces to go to a world series. Gallagher is a back of the rotation starter at best and Pie is enigma. Why not roll the dice to win now?

"Gallagher is a back of the rotation starter at best and Pie is enigma."

Gallagher is a 21 year old pitcher, entering his age 22 season that averages a strikeout an inning and has given up only 387 hits in 451 IP...what about that screams barely making a major league roster as his ceiling???

As for Pie, his numbers are similar to Adam Jones and he's been holding up this Bedard trade for weeks.

Gallagher reminds me more of an Ian Snell or John Maine type of pitcher but both of those guys are probably 4.50 ERA guys in the AL.

I agree he'll give up less hits then blanton but more strikeouts. If this deal gets done he's really who I'm after.

Where is pie rated for prospects in the cubs system?

The questio is is roberts worth an al league average #3 or#4 and a real good cf?

Pie is no longer a prospect based on his 177 ABs with the Cubs last year. BA had him as their #1 prospect last year, though.

When you look at Pie's minor league numbers, you will see that he has very little power, average plate discipline at best, and is atrocious on the bases. He is also been identified as a "five-tool" guy, which makes him valuable. There is a laundry list of guys with a resume like his that never make it (Corey Patterson anyone?), and some figure it out. As for Gallagher, he is known for his smarts and not his arm. There aren't that many Greg Maddux's out there, normally righty's with 90-91 sinkers end up as 3/4 even with excellent command.

"When you look at Pie's minor league numbers, you will see that he has very little power, average plate discipline at best, and is atrocious on the bases."

His numbers are near identical with Adam Jones

Jones .291/.350/.476
Pie .300/.355/.469

Both dominated AAA in their second tour last season and both din't make an immediate impact at the major league level. Again, Jones is going to nab Erik Bedard.

As for Gallagher...

"normally righty's with 90-91 sinkers end up as 3/4 even with excellent command."

This is a silly theory and can't be backed up. His numbers are outstanding at the minor league level...so how can you use numbers to say Pie is probably bad, but not use Gallagher's number to say he is probably good? You mention his fastball without mentioning his great curveball. He strikes out a hitter an inning, so he must be doing something right with that 90-91 mph fastball.

Also, what does Greg Maddux have to do with anything? Obviously there aren't "many" Greg Maddux's out there, since he is arguably the best pitcher in the history of baseball.

I take my Colvin thing back, Jeff Samardzija is the most overrated Cubs prospect. He is the anti-Gallagher. The guy throws 98 and can't strike anybody out. Goes to show you...

"This is a silly theory and can't be backed up. His numbers are outstanding at the minor league level". Yeah, your right, there are just so many 1/2s out there that are right handed with low 90s heat. There is absolutely no precedent to back up my projection. I am not saying the guy sucks, I am just saying he is a 3-5 guy, most likely a 4. There are only around 50 1/2 calibre guys in the league, and I feel there is about a 1% chance he will ever be one of them. Guys that move to the top normally have 1)Great Stuff 2)Great Command 3)Good Makeup, in that order. From what I have read he has #2 and #3, but not #1.

As for Pie, I agree that he has upside, but he certainly hasn't been able to show it at the Major league level, even in almost 200 ABs. My point was that he is far from a sure thing all-star and worth the risk in trading for a good leadoff man.

Oh, and the Jones comparison is suspect, given that Jones produced his numbers over a full season that included 25 HRs and Pie had 250 ABs and change (projecting to about 17 HRs).

Teetz,

The difficulty on the Pie to Jones stats thing is the fact that Iowa and West Tennessee (the parks where Pie had recent success) are both rather hitter-friendly environments, where Jones played in San Antonio and Tacoma (both fluctuate between semi to kinda-extreme pitchers parks, esp Tacoma last year). Not saying it’s a huge deal, but it can end up making a difference on overall numbers and maybe extreme differences on seemingly impressive/non-impressive individual seasons… (a guy like say Ronny Cedeno for instance, is possibly affected quite a bit by it…)

I meant Big Mike or Timmy.

nice try WWI, but that was so yesterday...

But anyway, where did the whole Greene to the Cubs thing come from? I have not seen a single *actual* rumor of the Pads looking to trade Greene to anyone and literally 100% of the Greene/Trade stuff I have seen has come from Cubs fans saying stuff like "Murton + for Greene". Is there anything leading to so many Cubs fans repeating it, or is it all basically little more than wishful thinking?

The list of vaunted Cub prospects goes on forever, with precious few amounting to much. BA ranked the Cub system no lower than 3rd from 2001-2003, but what happened to them? Hendry refused to get the Cubs a closer back in '04 because he wouldn't give up the prize jewel, Angel Guzman. The Cubs fans on this board go on and on about how (Fill in the blank) is going to be great so we shouldn't give him up but in the same breath say git-r-done when it comes to acquiring Roberts. The Chone and Marcel projections for Gallagher have him posting an era near 5.00; Marshall a mid 4.00 ERA, and that's in the NL. If those guys are examples of can't miss prospects, wouldn't the Cubs have slotted both of them in the rotation and dealt away Marquis and Dempster (to say nothing of signing Lieber). Sure, the return on Marquis and Dempster might not be great but the resulting rotation of Zambrano, Hill, Lilly, Gallagher and Marshall would be stellar, right? Or perhaps those guys aren't as good as Cubs fans would LIKE to think they are.....

Is anyone actually looking up the park factors on these sites or are you just guessing?

Spin this one - if the AA and AAA affiliates of the Cubs are such blatant hitter's parks, that makes what Sean Gallagher has done there at his age even more impressive.

Once again, Felix Pie has similar numbers to Carlos Gonzalez, the center piece of the Haren deal, and Adam Jones. Jones had a better year in '07, but that doesn't make Adam Jones fantastic and Felix Pie nothing.

Also, as long as we're bringing up nonsensically crappy projection systems, can I point out that Bill James projected Rich Hill to post better numbers than Bedard? Yeah, *very* convincing.

Bringing up past Cub prospects who have failed as a reason for the Cubs to get ripped off in comparison to the Renteria deal makes no sense. One has nothing to do with another. The Tigers had a long line of busted pitching prospects before Verlander, Zumaya, et al, that doesn't mean they're worthless.

I'm not even a Cubs fan. I just think this is a crappy deal in lieu of the Renteria deal.

It's simple. Renteria > Roberts. Therefore, giving up more for Roberts than was given up for Renteria is stupid. Is this string theory that it's difficult to understand or something?

2007 stats greene .254/.291/.759 fptc .984 with 11 errors 20 something hrs
wilson
.296/.350/.790 fptc.983 with 11 errors 12 hrs
also , jack wilson would be a better fit anyways because he could bat second IF the cubs picked up roberts .

roberts, wilson , soriano , lee , fukudome , ramirez , soto , and the cf .

Why is this a Greene topic? Why am I getting sucked in?

The Cubs should've been going after Greene from Day 1. Moaning about OBP with Greene misses the point. He hits flyballs at one of the highest frequencies in baseball, and he's in a park that's death to do so. Meanwhile, Wrigley is a great park for hitting flyballs. Furthermore, on the road all of his numbers go up, including OBP. He strikes out less, thus hits for a better average, and thus posts a better OBP.

Greene's probably a .280 EqA guy with the Cubs. Theriot is, what, .239? Who cares about OBP then? That's like saying Dan Uggla wouldn't be an upgrade over Mark Loretta.

I am pretty sure this is how the Cubs fans got going on Khalil Greene.

Rosenthal's Latest: Boras, Murton, Marquis, Clark
Ken Rosenthal is here to hopefully rescue what's been a slow day for rumors.

Rosenthal points out that it seems Scott Boras has been more flexible with his clients' contracts this year, perhaps even as the result of his "failures" with Alex Rodriguez and Kenny Rogers. A new, gentler Boras? Wait til Mark Teixeira, Matt Holliday, and Prince Fielder reach free agency.
The Padres are targeting Matt Murton for left field, a notion that gels with Kevin Towers' stated quest to acquire a corner outfielder via trade. Plus, Towers gets along well with Cubs GM Jim Hendry. Not sure how the teams would match up, unless things expand to include Khalil Greene. The Cubs would have to be sure they don't need Murton for other deals or because of other deals.
Rosenthal agrees with the recent rumor that the Orioles will decide whether to trade Erik Bedard and Brian Roberts by month's end. He notes that Cubs starter Jason Marquis actually does have trade value, and could be part of a package for Roberts. Other teams are interested in him too - go figure. Innings are innings I guess. Marquis, 29, is owed $16.25MM over the 2008-09 seasons.
An MLBTR commenter questioned the other day why Troy Tulowitzki's deal was said to top Grady Sizemore's as the record holder for a player with less than two years service time. The commenter wondered why Brian McCann wasn't part of the discussion - he signed for more than Sizemore ($26.8MM) in March of '07 with about a season and a half under his belt. Anyone know why McCann's name doesn't come up in this discussion?
One of Rosenthal's sources believes progress has been made on a long-term pact with Holliday, and the recent two-year deal is a positive sign.
Teams inquiring on Tony Clark: Mariners, Giants, and Red Sox. Clark has been mentioned as a Giants target before.
Posted on January 21, 2008 at 08:03 PM in Atlanta Braves, Baltimore Orioles, Boston Red Sox, Brian McCann, Brian Roberts, Chicago Cubs, Colorado Rockies, Erik Bedard, Matt Holliday, Matt Murton, San Diego Padres, San Francisco Giants, Scott Boras, Seattle Mariners, Tony Clark, Troy Tulowitzki | Permalink | Comments (102) | TrackBack (0)

I find it amusing that everyone is all up in arms over dealing away Gallagher. And those of you that say he looks like he'll be a solid #4 or #5....how do you know? He really has no experience starting at the MLB level. And I am sure very few of you have ever seen him start at the minor league level. As a Cub fan I say trade him and Marshall for Roberts. We still have Veal and a few other "prospects" left. And let's face it, it's not like we've ever really produced and top flight talent anyways!

dark, Padres beat writer, Corey Brock, discussed a possible Greene to Chicago(among other places) trade. Tim posted it on Jan. 21st.

Yes, it wasn't just cubs fans, it is pretty widely known that greene would rather be further east, and was the only player not attending team activities. He wants to leave, its just a question of how bad, when, and what they could get back for him. So don't go blaming cubs fans yet again, talk to the pads beat writer first, ok? Plus, both teams like a player the other one has...so why isn't the conversation legit? Obviously, we would have to give up more than murton to get him, but I think we could make it worth their while...

I have seen Gallagher pitch. He has a + Curve and a ++ Sinker. He is well suited to pitch at Wrigley. His fastball tops out @92 but he is still only 21. I think over time he can get it up to about 95.

He also has very good control and is a very cerebral pitcher. I think he has very good stuff. I wouldnt call it electric but he is the kind of pitcher who should be around for several years.

I think he is a more complete pitcher than Sean Marshall but Marshall is a bit more electric and he is a lefty.

I am of the opnion that '09 Gallagher will be in the majors. I think he may be part of the late season call up when they expand the roster. Which is why I would prefer not to trade him.

But considering Camdon Yards I think he could be very successful due to his groundball to fly ball ratio. Its going to improve as he matures.

But his time on the big club wasnt great to start. And I am not a professional scout.

HarryCarsysGhost,
Actually, Corey Brock doenst mention the Cubs. Actually, Brock doesn’t even mention a trade at all ~ Corey just has an article boiling down to “this is the current situation as it seems to stand with Greene” and asks his readers what they would do… The trade stuff in that post is what Tim added…

Buddah,
Thanks, I do remember that; but not that it included a Greene mention from Tim. That too is just Tim though; Rosenthal never mentioned Greene possibly being traded anywhere either… The Pads have no interest in trading Greene, they are competing now and wouldn’t be able to fill his place at SS or his bat in the lineup ~ that’s why its all so puzzling about why this keeps showing up in like every Roberts/Cubs thread now…

Although, I did remember earlier that the Pads turned down a Greene for Felipe Lopez and Chad Cordero offer from the Nats about a month or so ago …

And Adun…
“but I think we could make it worth their while...”

oh, you mean like this:

“What about Murton\Cedeno\Marshall for K. Green? Anyone?
Posted by: Aduncaroo | January 17, 2008 at 11:08 AM”

…yep, that’s what you find when you look through a couple of the recent Padres threads. Seems everyone rightfully ignored it though…
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2008/01/padres-looking.html

Just to calm everyone down, the Cubs are NOT considering moving Pie in this Roberts trade. I do not even understand why Orioles fans would be excited about picking up 2 CF's in a week span anyway.

When I read this article from Heyman I laughed my a^s off and placed a call with Pie's agent. He actually laughed too. It's simple BS reporting. Sorry.

"When I read this article from Heyman I laughed my a^s off and placed a call with Pie's agent. He actually laughed too."

lmao! You did? And why would anyone believe that? I'm sure players' agents are always excited to accept phone calls from fans asking questions about rumored trades.

Bleacher_Buddha

I think both Gallagher and Marshall could be reliable #5's. But that's about the best I see out of either of them. I haven't seen enough of Gallagher in a starters role to know for sure, but he just never seemed all that great. Marshall is a soft tosser and seems capable of a few good starts here and there. But he too doesn't projest to be anything special. If we could deal both those guys for Roberts then Hendry would be nuts not to do it. I actually liked what I saw from Hart more than what I saw from either Marshall or Gallagher.

I highly doubt the os have interest in pie after getting jones, and hendry has no interest in trading him. He starts cf next year, so I agree, calm down people, he is going nowhere

“I bet he starts the year with the big club in long relief, and when Dempster/Lieber hit the wall, which they will, hopefully he can step in and have a strong impact on our rotation.”

…Actually, its pretty much impossible because of 25-man restraints. As it stands, none of Gallagher/Marshall/Hart/etc can really make the club unless there is an injury or Cotts is released. Which, if Cotts were released, Marshall is probably the guy for the pen since he’s LH (Eyre would be the only LH RP if Cotts is removed)

“For a guy that is going to leave anyway, I would think that proposal is pretty decent.”

…I guess it depends on your definition of decent… I don’t see how Murton\Cedeno\Marshall could ever be considered a better return than Lopez/Cordero though. (and no, the Padres don’t need 5th-stater types; they have 4-5 guys competition for the 5th spot as it is, with 1-4 set. Marshall would possibly be in their pen, but its my understanding that is full as well…)

Sqweeek,

I would only point out 2 things,

1) that Marquis (regardless of if he should be) is more likely in the rotation with either Dempster or Leiber in the pen (Jason afterall has that 16M left on his contract ~ way too much for a mid-reliever).

2) I agree Cotts is expendable, and that Ascanio is a possibility ~ but probably lower of one than a LHer or Lahey (who was a Rule-5 and would need to be returned if not on 25-man). Ascanio atleast has options left so he can be buried until he is needed later on...

Regardless though, probably going to be rather difficult for Gallagher, Hart and Marshall (unless as that LH reliever) to make the squad…

darkstar

I would agree about Marquis except that Pinella's comments this off-season lead me to believe he's going to have to pitch lights out in the Spring to win a rotation spot. I don't see it happening and I think Pinella has lost a ton of faith in Marquis. I have to believe that if he isn't traded that Marquis winds up in the pen at some point.

Buddha - Harden is too much of a gamble for me. If the Cubs were rebuilding I'd take shot on him, but not now.

"I don’t care if he pitches like Jose Canseco, I am paying the guy 17 Mil! "

Lou: Yeah Jim, but I'm not the moron that signed him to that ridiculous contract. While we are on the subject of ridiculous contracts, I am going to bat Sorriano 5th. I could care less that he thinks he is a better hitter in the leadoff spot. I hope you weren't dumb enough to pay him 18 million per season AND promise him he'd bat leadoff.....

I figured since Harden has a spotty history recently and only 1 year left that they may be willing to trade him, while he can still get something for him. But considering its Beane you just never know.

Thanks.

As for Marquis, he will be traded and the cubs will eat quite a bit of his salary, maybe up to 9 mil? But he can be a guy who goes out and throws for a team that wont contend and eat innings. I would think that he might do well in Oakland because of the size of the park.

I'm sure something is going to happen soon. We are getting close to Spring Training and everyone is going to have to show their hand eventually. I would flinch a bit if I were to see any move with Pie and Gallagher involved. I still think Pie has offensive potential and is a stud defensively. He's only 22 and he will figure it out eventually. As for Gallagher, he has excelled at every level in the minors with great control and command of his pitches...all great attributes for a solid SP.

If I were JH, I would hold onto the limited players of value now and assess the situation at the All-Star break unless you can get a deal for Roberts like: Marshall, Murton, Colvin, etc.

“I doubt that the Cubs would decide who goes in the rotation based on salary. Or at least I hope they wouldnt.”

Its actually one of the more common moves in baseball, the high priced guy almost certainly gets first dibs on playing time because… well who knows why, and in some cases its just idiotic ~ but it still happens. I mean, look across town… What, Contreras missed all of 3 starts when he tanked? Or what about in NY where Mussina played the “I am a starter, I’m not a starter, I am a starter” game last year despite better options available; and is apparently starting again in 2008… And its not just pitchers; just ask Damon, or Anderson, or Pierre, or Nomar, or… Well, you get the idea… Sadly, you make the big bucks ~ you are nearly guaranteed a starting gig…

Thanks for the memories Trot Nixon, with your near impossible to shake, crappy ass play… *sigh*

Hahaha…

Not sure if I would go that far, and instead maybe just write it off as “well I bought it already, I might as well try to get some use out of it” thinking behind many of such moves… BUT, you are not wrong at all; and it is especially the case with a couple of these current owners and GMs…

Hey Kenny, I’m looking at you!

Hehehe…

Buddah,

Glaring problem with that theory… Increased D didn’t help the 2007 staff, it hurt them!

See, the BAbip problem on the 2007 Cubs is really visible in the first half, when Izturis was the SS. Unless you are saying Izturis is some amazing D wizard who changed the face of the franchise, the “improved D will help the BAbip” argument falls well short. Here, the numbers on the 3-5 starters:

Hill ..255 BAbip & 3.81 ERA in first half
Hill .300 BAbip & 4.05 ERA in the second

Marquis .246 BAbip & 3.67 ERA in first half
Marquis .306 BAbip & 5.73 ERA in the second

Marshall .279 BAbip & 3.48 ERA in first half
Marshall .302 BAbip & 4.35 ERA in the second

Those 1st half numbers are the reason the team both A) saw regression in the second half and B) will almost certainly see regressing numbers in 2008…

“I think the BABIP is a crock of s*%t”

Try to talk yourself into believing that if you like, but don’t forget that just 2 days ago we had a player explain to us just how much the actual pitchers do focus on BAbip and how important it is in the game. If you are trying to write if off, you are writing off years of history and the actual formulas that the players themselves use. Who should we believe; historic president & the actual players, or you?

“The statistics above (from darkstar) attempt to represent the decline of 3 starting pitchers in the second half which, again, is not a good predictor of future behavior”

No, it doesn’t at all. Not knowing anything about BAbip I can see why you jumped to that conclusion ~ but the truth is the stats above were given to show that the 2nd half was more of an indicator of what the first half numbers should have looked like.

Had Hill been posting a more normal .300-ish BAbip (instead of a .255), then his first half ERA would have been well over 4.0. If Marshall. Think about that, .255 BAbip created 83 Hits in the first half, if it was .300 then his hit total would have increased by something like 15 more hits in the first half. If you look at the actual splist on Hill for 2007, you will notice that his 2nd half looked really similar to his 1st other than the fact that opposing hitters hit only .227 instead of .243 off him. The OBP was within .020 points though (and the BA fluctuation would have taken care of that), and he actually had a higher SLG in the first rather than second. Hill would have been a 4.00+ ERA guy last year if his BAbip was not an extremely fluky low.