Ryan Howard Due For Huge Raise

How about a 7 year, 126MM contract.

I'm not so sure it will be "wise" to let him walk at age 31 and I'm curious to hear why you do. Yes, he's a big guy who might face additional wear and tear on the knees but he'll likely still be a productive bat in any lineup.

Howard's widely regarded as one of baseball's "good guys", so I have heard/read, so as one of the faces of a good, young Phillies team, I think it would behoove the organization to commence discussions.

And if they buy him out this early, I'm guessing he could be signed for less than free market rates (like the 7/$126M suggested above).

Bet you would've said the same thing about Mo Vaughn, Travis Hafner, Boog Powell, and Cecil Fielder.

I don't think it's any mystery that A) we can't project 2011 with any accuracy B) most of Howard's comps aged poorly and in general thats how big slow guys age and C) Hitters generally are declining past 30.

I'm hearing a note of discontent in Howard's comments. If the Phils don't nip this in the bud, this might be another Scott Rolen type of situation brewing. The Phils eventually had no choice but to deal Rolen eventually from all of the bad mojo coming from the hot corner. We can all debate how that turned out at that time, but at the time, Rolen showed no real signs of health issues and was a perrenial All-Star candidate. Their games are completely different but Howard looks like a perrenial All-Star too.

If I were the Phils I'd do anything in my power to keep this guy a Phillie for a longtime. Forget the projections of his ages 31-35 values. He's an elite quality player and potential future MVP guy, and, that's a long ways away to plan for and possibly being overly cautious to anticipate him to decline early at 31. The traditional decline starts at 33-34 but dips below productive values at age 35. Though true perrenial MVP types can exceed that.

You should include that 900K is the highest salary EVER (tied with pujols) given to a player in his situation, and that Howard said your italics with a huge smile and chuckle, as he does most things.

Its a delicate situation tho, do you go for a long term contract now, and try to save money in the long run, or wait to see if he turns in bad years before free agency

I blogged about this today at The Good Phight. I think the Phils should offer Howard a long-term deal now, for something like six years, $84 million; based on his best comparable players, there's risk, but the bet that he'll continue to mash the ball through his early 30s strikes me as a pretty good one that a team with championship aspirations pretty much has to take.

Link: http://www.thegoodphight.com/story/2008/1/4/13407/32714

Tim, Boog Powell isn't the best comparable to push your argument. He got out cus of health reasons but in his second to last season at age 33, he won an MVP with 27 HRs. You are right that he had 2 bad seasons previous to that but they are related to injuries.

And, if you're arguing that Boog Powell was physically built more like Cecil or Mo Vaughn than I'd disagree there too. He was built more like Jim Thome or, yes, even Ryan Howard. They are both listed as about 6'4" / 230-240 lbs. Cecil is listed to a similar weight but he was really more in the 250 lbs range at his peak.

1. MVP awards measure nothing
2. Fred Lynn won it anyway

Granted, I can understand why you might think he was a "BIG' player during his player days because of his reputation today ("Boog's Barbecue") and since he is a Cecil-like huge man today. Though here are some pics of him during his peak years as an Oriole and one of him in his last few years as an Indian:

http://www.okamooo.com/boogpowell002.jpg
http://66.132.211.220/images/10414.jpg
http://www.sportsautosttm.com/boogpowell.JPG

"6yr 84 mil? Hmm and you wonder why no one reads your blog."

How'd you hear about this?

I'm not saying he is one way or the other. And, I could easily see his SO/BB ratio start to deteriorate his overall numbers over time once some things start to slip. I am just saying that right now, no matter what the comparables say he is, those comps are based on a couple of full-time ML seasons, so, you just don't know. The fact of the matter is that comparables change every season for young players. Right now I think as fasr as this stuff goes, Howard is being penalized for starting the league at age 24, whereas a guy like Prince started at 21. Some have argued that the Phils went especially slow with advancing Howard.

* I wonder what the MLBPA would have to conceed in order to get service time to start after X years under a team's control rather than after X years of MLB experience. Seems like guys like Howard or those stuck on teams that don't expand after Sept. 1 are at pretty big disadvantages.

if Pat Burrel can convert from 3B/1B to left field, then anyone should. Howard had every chance to convert to a OF but couldnt, it not the Phils fault he couldnt get out of Thome's way

(RF is between 3B and LF, I know, but I'm not sure it was relevant here)

I know the spectrum and all, but c'mon PAT BURRELL! if you cant walk around in the OF like an idiot as good as him, you should be ashamed.

in all seriousness tho, The Phils are getting a 50homer guy for peanuts. What makes me mad with this is they're not taking that extra money and using it to build a better team. If you're winning and getting "underpaid"(oh no only 7mil!), it probably wouldnt be such an issue. unless your T.O.

#1 - I am fairly certain that Howard was extrememly pissed off with the $900k contract, which was extremely generous on Philly's part.

#2 - phightins - what "extra" money? When you have a young player perform well, it's not like the difference between their salary and their value is deposited into the team's account. Howard's contract is part of the team's budget. Is he a bargain? In a vaccuum, yes, but not overall because the savings on the young players goes to generally overpaid free agents (and JC Romero - hahaha)...

#3 - if they go year to year with Howard, he WILL get a huge contract at age 31. This, as many have said (and given good evidence for), is a bad idea. Like others have said, the best idea would probably be to get ~2 of those FA years signed, and let him walk when he's 33 or so.

mac_1103: he's no babe ruth, but .313avg, 58HR, 149RBI should qualify as a ruthian year.

Maybe not extra money from hoawrd alone, but the Phils have said they are willing to spend around 7-10$mil extra then they have already, after jenkins/durbin . They havent won a playoff game yet, let alone a series. It was a succesful season, but with this core, theres no time like the present to overpay.

"Go ask them," Howard blurted out in a raised voice. "They're the ones with all the money."

Howard is a 28 year old baby. He has already received $1,255,000 in the 2006-07 seasons, plus an additional $230K signing bonus when he was drafted.

I'll try to remember that quote for when Phillies come to town so I can give Howard an ear full when he's on the on deck circle.

bsox21, when Ruth played, stadiums were usually designed so that home runs would be rare, but that triples and inside the park home runs would be common. You had giant outfields back then.

Monument Park at Yankee Stadium? That used to be in the middle of the outfield before the renovations in the 70s.

What we call a pitchers field today would've been a nice hitters field in Ruth's day.

It was a lot harder to hit a home run in Ruth's day.

In response to Bobo, I believe the "extra money" here is the cash that Phil's brass keeps promising they have to spend in the off-season. It became "extra" when they traded Abreu and his monster salary to the Yanks.

Excuse my ignorance, but I thought that Fenway Park's field dimensions have been pretty much kept the same since the days of Ruth. So why would have it been harder to hit a HR there in 1907 than it was in 2007? Were all the fields back then (as Yanksfan tells us) really that big?

Actually, "not true at all" was probably not a great choice of words on my part. I think, other than the addition of the bullpen, the dimensions have remained basically unchanged, but that one change had a huge influence in regards to this discussion.

No one is saying Howard is as good as Babe Ruth. Someone said .313 58HR 149RBI isnt considered a "ruthian" season, which others argued against, and rightfully so. His MVP season wasnt the best of all time or anything, but it definintely is top 25 of all time i think. And as always, there will always be a sabermetrix stat or two that will disprove that, but when isnt there.