Free Agent Stock Watch: Adam Dunn

A power hitting lead off hitter yay!

Dunn has ALWAYS had a low BA (career: .247), and he's ALWAYS has a lot of walks(career: 102 per 500 AB). I don't see what's new about this. Sure his 2008 numbers are extreme, but it's only 53 AB. Dunn's gotten off to a slow start this year, so he's compensating a bit. He's not getting out much, despite the low BA, while he's working out how to fix his lack of hitting production.

A big part of Dunn's problem is Dusty Baker. During spring training the idiot posing as a manager told Dunn, an amazingly productive hitter, to change his approach at the plate and "be more aggressive", i.e. swing more, because Baker thinks walks are worthless from a power hitter ("clogging the bases"). Dunn had an approach that was incredibly successful, but he's being forced to change that approach and it's resulting in his problems.

Shouldn't you be accounting for plate appearances and not at-bats when trying to extrapolate his walk totals, after all walks don't count as at bats so the more walks he has, the less likely it is that he will reach the same at bat total from last year. Also, Ron Shandler wrote about the typical career path of large lefties in his forecaster two years ago, and what he found is that large lefties generally have a really productive 3-4 years, and then drop off really quickly when compared to righties, and normal sized players. Just food for thought.

Also to prove that american league has better pitching, who has won the last ten all star games?

Whoa discount that statement i made. It was for another topic.

"Also to prove that american league has better pitching, who has won the last ten all star games?"

Good job dude, this is the new stupidest post of the month. I dont know, yesterday was 4/20 so maybe your high. You must be. That is like me saying the AFC is better then the NFC because they won 6 out of 8 pro bowls.

"Whoa discount that statement i made. It was for another topic."

The topic isnt really important. You should be telling people to disregard that statement anyway, if not for its being in the wrong topic, just for its sheer stupidity.

Dunn has to start hitting bombs. Having "just" a 400OBP with terrible wheels and a terrible glove does not make him a $15m/year player.

I'll agree with Dusty on this one point, having someone like Dunn take a lot of walks isn't nearly as valuable as some other player taking walks. Dunn's value comes with the threat of going yard. If you reduce him to just a guy who walks a lot then his value plummets.

Dunn is one of the most overrated players in the MLB.
The BB comment by Bill James is the type of crap I can't stand. It's a complete generalization and then applied to an individual player.
"James reasoned, the increase in walks will result in a decrease in batting average because the pitchers will adjust and will begin to make the hitters hit good pitches."
As opposed to what pitchers normally do? Which is what, pitchers throwing hanging curveballs and BP pitches?
This statement has no true value and certainly cannot be used as a predictor of statistics or behavior.

Also, considering the season is 10% over, it's still a bit early to project stats for the year. Let's talk about the BB projection at the all-star break, and see where Dunn is then...

bonzosa, I think James is suggesting that once pitchers discover that a batter is looking to walk, they will go after him more aggressively, rather than nibbling at the corners of the strike zone.

Chris, you're probably right: I should have looked at plate appearances, rather than at bats. Though, I think any way you slice it, Dunn is on pace for more walks this season.

Metafrantic, I don't follow your logic: Dusty is telling Dunn to be more agressive and, as a result, he's walking more?

Coley, I don't necessarily agree. So, if pitchers know a hitter is looking to walk, does that change the area of the plate you pitch to or try to avoid (because of their hitting strength)?

"Metafrantic, I don't follow your logic: Dusty is telling Dunn to be more agressive and, as a result, he's walking more?"

I think that when Baker told Dunn to be more aggressive and swing more, it threw Dunn off his game. He's now trying to get back to where he feels comfortable, and in the meantime he's taking more pitches than usual (even though it's the opposite of what Baker wanted). No matter what Baker wants, Dunn has to feel comfortable up there or he's not going to produce anything.

"Dunn has to start hitting bombs. Having "just" a 400OBP with terrible wheels and a terrible glove does not make him a $15m/year player."

As opposed to what? Striking out a lot? Because Dunn can't just decide to turn those walks into HR; if it was that easy, everyone would do it. A lot of those walks have come because the opposing pitchers won't throw him anything he can drive. (And Dunn's "wheels" are significantly better than most power-hitting OF. He actually steals a few bases a year. But you're right about his defense.)

"I'll agree with Dusty on this one point, having someone like Dunn take a lot of walks isn't nearly as valuable as some other player taking walks. Dunn's value comes with the threat of going yard. If you reduce him to just a guy who walks a lot then his value plummets."

That's true, although just because Dunn walks a lot doesn't mean the threat of him going yard is diminished. If he gets a pitch to drive, he's not going to watch it pass in the hopes of walking. He has zero intentional walks, which means he earned those walks by having a good eye - which means he didn't get pitches worth swinging at.

Well, one thing that's "hurting" Dunn in this regard, he's being pitched around. At least when the Reds took on the cubs a few days back, the Cubs pretty much pitched around him as often as they could. Then again, Dunn has always killed the Cubs.. and this could be Piniella's way of trying to control that. If other teams are also pitching around him... we're going to see the white version of Barroid, at least as far as pitching around him goes. It also doesn't help that the guy batting behind him, Encarnacion, has struggled until the past week or so. why pitch to one of the more dangerous hitters in the game if you can walk him and get the next guy out with a lot less risk?

If Encarnacion continues to pull it together... and the guys in front of them can get on base... Dunn will start getting something to hit much more often.

What James is saying is that the increased walks are a symptom of aging. You start to notice you're not as good with the bat as you were, so you start working counts to get better pitches or just to produce at the same levels. Pitchers start noticing you're looking to walk and start attacking, and, since this a symptom and not a cause of a decline, you can't hit the same pitches as well as in your prime.

I have to say, though, I agree that it's silly to do this as a predictor. It's not really a very useful theory in my opinion since it seems to function mostly in hindsight.

Bonzosa's critique of BJ's 1986 reasoning about BB is spot on. Pitchers don't just get better at painting the corners just because one guy is being more patient than the rest of the free swingers on a lineup card. Read Jim Bouton on how hard it is to hit your spots and how annoying it is to hear your coach say how easy it is to paint the corners if you just try harder.

What Dusty should do is work with Dunn on a compromise strategy. Give Dunn a daily list of randomly assigned orders to swing on tough pitches during certain counts. Such a list could order Dunn to swing freely on the 3rd pitch of his 1st PA, the 2nd pitch of his 2d PA, the 1st pitch of his 3d PA, and so on, changing these orders every day to prevent the opposition from catching on to the strategy. Hell, Dunn wouldn't even have to remember the list...Dusty could just whisper the information to Dunn before he walks over to the on-deck circle. This would give Dusty yet another excuse to feel like he's a superstar manager, and would help to at least put the ball in play a bit more. Now, under such a strategy, Dunn would be able to hold back if his "swing away" pitch is too far out of the strike zone. For instance, Dunn would not have to swing on a wild pitch that sailed into the stands. To keep Dunn honest, Dusty would watch the swings closely and chide Dunn for not swinging on pitches he felt were too fat not to swing away on. This strategy would be better than simply ordering Dunn to swing on everything, because then his high K rates would only rise, lowering both his AVE and his OBP.

I'd like to dub my Dusty-Dunn hitting strategy a Selective Swing Away Selectively Strategy (or SSAS).
It will put more "sass" in Dunn's swing.

Or, better, a Swing Away Selectively Strategy (or SASS). Then Dunn can be more sassy with opposing pitchers. There's no excuse for Dunn not to try harder to exploit the offense-friendly characteristics of his home ballpark. He should work with Gwynn-like dedication on hitting borderline pitches like Vlad the Impaler in his batting cage sessions. Dunn should watch more film of himself hitting such pitches and pay more attention to what mechanical adjustments he made and figure out how to replicate these mechanics when necessary.

I have heard the excuses for Dunn.

"His knee was injured for two years and that is why he didn't produce as well as he could have". I think his knee might have been sore for two years but it wasn't injured. Read the articles and Dunn said he tried to play injured but it hurt too much. So, I think he tore his meniscus and tried to play for two WEEKS on it but couldn't.

"He hasn't had anybody getting on base in front of him and that is why he hasn't produced as well as he could have". Yeah right. The Reds lead-off and number two hitters in 2007, combined, were second in all of the NL as far as On Base Percentage was concerned. I think for the past five years, the Reds lead-off hitters have also been in the top 1/3 of the NL as far as OBP goes, so Dunn HAS had people on base.

"Dunn hasn't ahd anybody batting behind him to protect him". Wrong. Edwin E hit .289 with 16 Home Runs and 76 RBI's in 2007. This, even though, he struggled to start the year and he was sent to Louisville.

Also, as much as Dunn is being paid, I thought HE was supposed to be the protection in the line-up? I thought HE was the one who was supposed to help pick up the team if other, lesser paid players didn't?

Face the facts people. Adam Dunn is NOT A GOOD HITTER!!! He has a career .248 Batting Average and .220 with RISP. Dunn is a ONE TOOL PLAYER!!! When he is not hitting Home Runs he is NOT helping the team.

If Dunn has "Good speed for a big man" then he is either too stupid, untalented or unmotivated to use it. The Reds have had trouble scoring Runs and he has had AMPLE opportunity to Steal a base every once in a while but has failed to do so. So, his Walks mean very little.

Staying moored at First Base like a battleship means the Double Play is still in order and it means that somebody is going to have to get an Extra Base Hit to score him from First. Heck, looking at yesterday's Game, THAT wont even work.

Dunn is a Designated Hitter masquerading as a Left Fielder. After 2008, some team is going to be stupid enough to sign him to a big dollar, long term contract. As a Reds fan, I pray to GOD it isn't Cincinnati.

DoubleSteel: I don't know whether to laugh or cry.

Doublesteel,

Exactly.

I read a quote from Dunn during Spring Training which just made me laugh. When Dunn was asked about his improved Offensive stats during the second half of 2007, he responded by saying that "something just clicked".

On the Reds board I posted that and said, if he didn't know WHAT clicked or WHY then whatever the cause was, it could just as easily UNCLICK.

I said if Dunn were to study the Game, his swing and the opposing Pitchers, like Gwynn did, then he might have a clue. But since he takes that time to play video games, then improvement is not likely to happen.

clownboy: you do realize that BA tells you almost nothing about how good a hitter someone is?

You point out Dunn's .220 BA with RISP; you omitted that he's got a career .415 OBP with RISP. That means he is FAR above average at not making an out with men on base. In fact, he's far above league average in plenty of categories:

career OBP: .381 (lg. Avg: .343)
career SLG: .516 (lg. Avg: .436)
career OPS: .897 (lg. Avg: .779)

He has a career 130 OPS+. In 2007 he had a .312 EQA, 45.5 VORP and 5.3 WARP.

Even using traditional stats, Dunn's a great hitter; over the past 4 years he's AVERAGED 42 HR, 100 RBI, 102 Runs, 109 BB and 7 SB. The ONLY stat that's bad in his career is BA. And strikeouts, which he does a lot. But so does Ryan Howard, and we never hear how terrible a hitter he is.

In fact, last year Howard hit very similarly to Dunn: Lowish BA (.268), but great OBP, SLG, HR, RBI and Runs. He set a ML record with 199 SO, but was 5th in MVP voting and everyone says he's one of the best hitters in the majors... for following a similar hitting pattern to Dunn, just more extreme: better power numbers, more strikeouts.

Ctownboy,

As a native San Diegan growing up with the Pads, naturally I learned about the work ethic of hitting from Gwynn. And when all the big names in baseball journalism agree that Gwynn's strategy of self-study and working on his mechanics is the right approach for any hitter to take, I think why the hell don't more hitters do this? And when you look at Dunn and the rep he has for being a unidimensional player whose #1 strength is far and away his SLG, then why for ___'s sake doesn't his owner/coach REQUIRE him to double or even triple his efforts in the cage and in the video replay room? Seems like maybe a failure of management here.

Ryan Howard has won an MVP Award because, when he isn't Striking Out, he DOES OTHER THINGS that are productive and helps his team win. Take their Strike Outs away (which helps neither players' team) and look at their production numbers.

Dunn plays in a hitter's park and one which inflates his numbers by 27%, according to Bill James. On top of that, he COSTS the Reds at least 20 Runs a year because of his BAD Defense, that according to John DeWan of The Fielding Bible.

With ALL of his stats, how many Home Run titles has he won? How many RBI titles? How many Silver Slugger Awards? How many All-Star Games has he played in? Zero, zero, zero and one and that was as a Pinch Hitter.

As far as MVP voting, he has finished 28th and 26th, respectively. With 16 teams in the NL, that means some teams have had two (or more) players not only receive votes but finish higher than Dunn ever has.

Look at Dunn's stats AWAY from GASP. Look at his stats against Left Handed Pitching. Then, look at the Reds win totals away from GASP and their win totals against Left Handed Pitching. I think there is a direct correlation between Dunn's failures in those areas and the Reds' record. Dunn is paid to produce, in WHATEVER park he plays in and against WHATEVER type of Pitcher the opposing team puts out on the mound. If he can't do that and has to be platooned because of it (or his Defense) then he IS NOT WORTH THE MONEY THE REDS ARE PAYING HIM!!!

Also notice that Dunn has plateaued the last four years as far as Home Runs, RBI's, Runs, OBP, Slugging and OPS. All the while, his Walk total has gone down.

Since the age 27 and 28 years are supposed to be the best for Offensive players, this means his production is likely to DROP. So why pay a guy MORE for LESS production? Heck, even if his production stays the same but his pay increases, then his VALUE goes down.

For $13 million dollars, the Reds could do JUST AS WELL with a guy who played AVERAGE Defense and who drove in 80 to 85 RBI's a year.

In 2007, the Reds finished 3rd in the NL in Home Runs hit and 7th in Runs scored. Dunn hit .242 with RISP. KGJ hit .244 with RISP. So, the team HAD guys getting on base but the "run producers" didn't do the job they were paid for.

Dunn is PAID to drive in Runs and NOT WALK. When Dunn Walks, he DOES NOT MAKE THE OPPOSING TEAM PAY FOR IT because he doesn't Steal bases or run the bases well.

Take Dunn's Home Run and RBI totals out and add in Carl Craford's (11 Home Runs and 80 RBI's) and the Reds would have finished 7th in Home Run hits and 7th in Runs scored. So, the team Home Run totals would have dropped but NOT the rank in Runs scored. This is TOTALLY leaving out what Crawford brings to the table because of his speed and Defense.

Heck, Josh Willingham of the Marlins, who plays just as bad Defense as Dunn and who plays in a Pitcher's park, would have been just as good for the Reds as Dunn. Willingham hit 21 Home Runs and drove in 89 RBI's. Replace Dunn's numbers with his and the Reds would have finished 5th in Home Runs and 7th in Runs scored. Oh yeah, Willingham was paid $385,000 compared to Dunn's $10 million....

Adam Dunn might be a GOOD Fantasy League player but he is NOT a GOOD Major League baseball player and Home Runs are NOT the end all, be all

Doublesteel,

First off, I think it is a matter of personal responsibility. A player HAS TO WANT TO get better. With Dunn, I think it is the path of least resistance. If he can get away with it, he will.

Just like the guy who comes to work five minutes early and leaves five minutes afterwards. He is there when he is supposed to be and does just enough to get by and not get fired but nothing over and above that.

I honestly believe Dunn thinks he has had a succesful year when he leads the Reds in Home Runs. No matter what his other stats are or if the team wins, he has been succesful if his name is number one on the Home RUn list of Reds players at season's end.

Then, after that, I think the Reds Ownership and Front Office Management are IDIOTS for continuing to keep Dunn around and NOT expect him to work hard and improve.

In all the jobs I have ever had, unless the person is married to or is a relative of the Owner, they did NOT get a 30% pay increase, year over year, for basically the same produciton.

metafrantic,

Here are Howard's career numbers with RISP:

RISP 347 601 449 118 22 1 38 225 131 77 168 5 0 16 6 11 0 0 .263 .423 .570 .993 .309 103

Because those numbers didn't line up right, it shows his OBP with RISP is .423, his SLG is .570 and his OPS is .993.

If you want to compare Howard's career numbers to Dunn's, go right ahead. Howard wins even though he Strikes Out just as much.

Could it be that Dunn has that perfect "baseball body type" that scouts and GMs get all gooey over (according to Moneyball), and that fact gives him the benefit of the doubt on questions about his overall effectiveness as a player? Maybe. He looks exactly like a guy that everyone on my softball team cherished for his gap power and intimidating, lumberjack style body type. Still, I think most MLB pitchers have seen enough of this body type not to get overly worried when pitching to these guys. So I think it's largely a myth, but one that still drives decision-making in the front office.

But doesn't Jay Bruce have that kind of body type too? Plus Bruce is supposed to have better work ethic. With Griffey a perennial injury concern and Patterson/Freel/Hopper not exactly an A+ OF and other boppers in the lineup not doing so well (e.g. Encarnacion), I think management is getting all worried about losing Dunn's stick after trading him away. But tell me what would be so upsetting about a Cincy OF (left to right) of Griffey--Patterson--Bruce? Griffey could use a spell in LF to give his legs a break. Bruce is a better fielder than Dunn and maybe could field as well as Griffey in right. Freel and Hopper aren't completely useless as backups. And Bruce should provide good enough OPS to balance the loss of Dunn, after making an adjustment for the lower runs allowed with Bruce's superior fielding. Just a thought.

Doublesteel, I have to nominate your post on the basics of SASS as one of the funniest and most classic MLBTR posts I have come across in 2 years visiting this site. And I have seen some funny ones.

"To keep Dunn honest, Dusty would watch the swings closely and chide Dunn for not swinging on pitches he felt were too fat not to swing away on. This strategy would be better than simply ordering Dunn to swing on everything, because then his high K rates would only rise, lowering both his AVE and his OBP."

That line killed it for me. Bravo.

Thanks nrmax88,

I picture Dusty chewing on his toothpick watching Dunn's SASS pitch sail just wide of the zone (eliciting no swing attempt by Dunn) and twisting his face into a look of sheer incredulity, thinking "Damn Dunn! Where's that sass we talked about! That was a sweet pitch. You should have grooved it, you big oaf! I'm gonna have a talk with you, real serious-like."