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According to Hal McCoy of the Dayton Daily News, Ken Griffey Jr.'s remaining $8MM this year and his $16MM option/$4MM buyout next year will not deter the Mariners. The revelation that Junior may not require his '09 option exercised and the chunk of deferred money could indeed make the money a non-issue.
One question is whether the Reds will treat this as a salary dump or if they'll want a decent prospect in return. The other is whether Griffey would want to join the last place Mariners.
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Hey Tim, reds fan here, do you think a Michael Saunders and Adam Moore for Griff, be a good deal for both sides
Posted by: redhawk61 | May 14, 2008 at 05:42 PM
I really could see Saunders and Moore filling some pretty glaring holes for the reds in the near future with the hopeful departure of Dunn and Bako being our catcher. When Dunn and Griff are gone we are left with Bruce then question marks in the OF and Saunders would be a good fit to fill a void
Posted by: redhawk61 | May 14, 2008 at 05:45 PM
Okay, so in the offseason they didn't realize they were a terrible team and instead went the "add one piece" route, thinking Bedard would stamp their ticket to the postseason. Now, after adding Bedard, they're very obviously a terrible team. Let's add one more piece!
Posted by: asm | May 14, 2008 at 06:53 PM
redhawk, being familiar with both teams, I'll field your questions... Yes, that would be a decent deal for both teams, but I think it hamstrings the Reds in other moves...
Typically you want an offensive minded catcher and a defensive minded catcher... In a perfect world you would have a lefty and a righty with the righthand hitting catcher being the defensive wiz...
Very few times will you find a catcher that does it all, it's why Johnny Bench, Pudge Rodriguez, Yogi Berra are all or will be HOF'ers.
I think that if you look a level lower in the Mariners farm system you'll see Travis Scott who is very similar to Adam Moore, but hits left handed, he's a year younger than Moore and a better defensive catcher as Moore can seem a littl clumsy at times.
Scott's plate discipline causes his BB to SO ratio to be a little off, but it's not bad and his numbers are better than Moore's stats across the board, with less at bats to do it in.
I think this could be one of the catchers of the future for the Reds and if you throw in Rob Johnson who is a GG caliber catcher as well, you have your two headed backstop both under the age of 25.
In addition to this, I don't think Michael Saunders is a good fit for the Reds because he doesn't project as a CF option long term and that is probably the most pressing need as Bruce is a LF or RF in the majors!
Saunders also has Dunn like SO numbers to go with minimal patience at the plate. He is five tooled athlete, but I think a better fit would be Daniel Carroll, you'll find his stats Wisconsin Timber Rattlers, in a pitching dominated league he's managed to hit .339 with a .413 OPS, 10 SBs in 56 ABs + 5 walks over 15 games.
The thing you'll like best about this kid is he's only 19 and he already understands how to steal a bag and to work the count, in a couple years he'll gain power to go with his speed as he's already 6'1 and 175 lbs.
Maybe a good comparison would be he's a right handed Ichiro with a little less contact ability, more SO, but the same kind of guy, expect 40-60 SBs, .310 AVG, 10-15 HRs, 50-60 XBH a year, less than 100 SO, more than 50-60 BB, good defensive, decent arm.
He was a 2nd or 3rd round pick, so his skills are legitimate and he doesn't turn 20 until next year! This gives you the two catchers and CF of the future... Then throw in a mid-level prospect arm going to Cincinnati along with Miguel Cairo and send Griffey and Freel to Seattle.
A name that comes to mind for the pitcher would be an A level pitcher playing for the High Desert Mavericks named Enrique (Ricky) Orta, he doesn't throw very hard maybe low 90s topping out at 92mph, something akin to Bronso Arroyo, with similar movement on his pitches!
That means it would be:
Griffey and Freel to Seattle
Travis Scott C, Rob Johnson C, Daniel Carroll CF, Ricky Orta SP (RH), and Miguel Cairo UTL to Cincinnati
This means that Griffey and Freel will take up roster spots on the 40-man which were held by Rob Johnson and Miguel Cairo. This is a very fair deal and helps both teams! As it is Dusty doesn't like Freel, so let him get a chance to get out of Cinci with Griffey.
Posted by: BaseballGuru | May 14, 2008 at 07:33 PM
BaseballGuru, you are off your rocker. In what universe is Griffey going to return 5 players when owed at least 12 million this year and possibly 24 million over the next 2? Is it his hot start to 08? That .250 avg and 4 homeruns through the first month and a half drawing a lot of attention? He is slugging under .380 in 140+ ABs for pity's sake.
Fact is Griffey is playing like crap, is a huge injury risk and is owed a lot of money. A return of 5 players in trade is optimistic to the point of being ridiculous unless Cinci plans on paying a good chunk of his owed money or takes back a contract (Washburn or Johjima).
I think Seattle is putting out this interest in Griffey so they can get some more butts in the seats all the while buying low on the guy so they don't have to do much more than throw a middling player or two at Cinci and take that fat contract off their hands.
Posted by: thr33niL | May 14, 2008 at 07:48 PM
ASM,
I like you kid, but your comment is terribly short sighted, look at the career numbers of the Mariners and you'll see that they are all playing well below their norms and in baseball players always bounce back, it's probability and statistics!
Plus you can say it happens to everyone, but Washburn has had 8 ERs tacked onto his ERA after the last out of the inning was recorded but the umpire missed the call. That's good for about 1.5 runs meaning he'd have a 4.00 ERA. Batista hasn't been feeling great and usually starts out rough, but this is by far the best staff in the American League and any knowledge baseball person will tell you that.
Write any baseball guy Ken Rosenthal, whoever, ask them their opinion and they will say they are the best or one of the best bullpens as far as talent and eventually talent turns into numbers especially with Mel Stottlemyre as the pitching coach!
As they say during the games, if these guys did this in July or August, no one would even notice... I think if you were to talk to most players around the league, they would tell you that Seattle is one of the scariest teams in baseball.
The Mariners are about to break out at any moment and with great pitching and a rejuvenated offense. Keep in mind Balentien and Clement are just starting to get their feet wet at the majors and have been up for less than two weeks.
Balentien is already on pace for 35-40 HRs, with 4 in the first 11-12 games he's played. They'll stop running into Cliff Lee and Kason Gabbard pitching way better than they are and start rolling off sweeps and winning series left and right...
Most of this has been bad timing with who they play, they've traveled a lot early on and that should lessen to some extent as the season goes on, they played a stretch of 40 some games in 46 days or something like that, and they haven't really been healthy until now.
The chances of 4 offensive starters experience their worst slump of their careers, having your ace miss three starts, and you lose your closer for 18 games, plus he has to reacclimate to coming in during save situations, which means it's more like losing him for 4 weeks.
If you think back to when Johnny Damon was on the A's and Oakland was kicking around 10 games under .500 and then before you knew it was at 95 wins by the end of the season, they were a second half team and that's the whole Mariners team, I've posted the numbers 1st half versus 2nd half, but go to baseball reference and see for yourself... This team will be winning a ridiculous number of games.
Griffey could be the missing piece to that, especially if they get Freel also to compliment Bloomquist as another all purpose player with good speed and has a little dirt dog in him. This team is okay, if you think Oakland or Anaheim really can keep up what they're doing offensively, you have got to introduce me to your dealer!
Posted by: BaseballGuru | May 14, 2008 at 07:49 PM
th33nil, I agree 5 for 1 is steep but Freel is a young player who is raking and can play 6 positions. I took that into account and the deal only includes Johnson as one of the top 20 prospects in the Mariners system.
This deal also allows them to move two guys on the 40-man roster, which otherwise they'd just be DFAing someone, so what's the difference?! You trade 1 or 2 for Griffey, 2 for Freel, and you release 1 or 2 guy(s) to make room, which still comes out to 5 players...
Of course Cincinnati will be eating payroll, since Sexson could be an 11MM sacrificial lamb. I would assume that Seattle gets the 4MM for the buyout and if they excise the option Seattle pays the difference.
If they don't then they basically are paying for just this season and Cinci would probably kick in $1MM on Freel's deal and $2MM on Griffey's, making it about $7MM trading hands.
These are also A ball players except for Johnson and Cairo, so it's not like they are getting guaranteed HOF'ers, but they are solid prospects and it doesn't effect the team negatively with a whole load of prospects coming in within a month!
Posted by: BaseballGuru | May 14, 2008 at 07:57 PM
That is incredibly optimistic. The Mariners....scary? Haha.
Take this from a lifelong Mariner fan and one that has seen every game this season.
The Mariner's offense is TERRIBLE. They have shown some signs of life lately and will improve when the law of averages catches up a bit. The whole they have dug is pretty huge. 10 games under .500 and 8.5 games out of the West. That is a big whole.
I really think that if this clubs wins 80+ games this year, it would be a miracle. That amount of wins though probably locks them up for 2nd place and out of the playoffs.
Unless this offense completely flips and starts hitting way above their heads, they won't run down the Angels. Griffey or no Griffey.
Posted by: thr33niL | May 14, 2008 at 08:00 PM
FYI thr33nil, Griffey only has around 8MM left on this year's contract, the other 2.5MM or so has been paid from March(spring training), April, and May.
The Mariners would only be paying him for June, July, August, September, and October. Everyone gets paid in October, they get paid because otherwise ownership is saying they assume they aren't going to make the playoffs!
Posted by: BaseballGuru | May 14, 2008 at 08:02 PM
First off.. I meant "hole" not "whole" in that last post. Happens when its hot and you type to fast. Proofreading goes out the window.
Second. I would love to add Freel to the mix. To dump Cairo and and a guy like Freel would help the bench out immensely. Also, I wasn't inferring that the 5 guys you posted were super prospects or anything but giving up 4 promising guys and taking on a load of money doesn't even out.
I see it more like that if the Reds indeed kicked in some cash. I wouldn't have a problem with it.
This is all PR though. It has more to do with bringing in fans than it does winning. The Mariners have seen attendance start to slip away and instead of doing the right thing of building a better team for the long term, they constantly look for band-aids. Griffey is another band-aid that brings in the added bonus of nostalgia. I won't lie, I want Griffey back in Seattle as bad as anyone. But if Bavasi overpays in prospects for another quick fix, I will freak out. I'm tired of this team being run into the ground by inept management.
Posted by: thr33niL | May 14, 2008 at 08:10 PM
Just a quick question though. What would Cinci want with Cairo? The guy is a dime a dozen defensive/pinch running infielder that can't hit the ball much further than SS.
I also think if the Mariners do deal for Junior, they guarantee the option year. With Sexson and Vidro off the books for '09, they will be ready to throw money to the wind.
I think Sexson's getting something like 17 million this year because his contract was backloaded. Yikes.
Posted by: thr33niL | May 14, 2008 at 08:17 PM
I'm also a Mariner fan living in Seattle, you my friend are pessimistic! A list of Mariners, their AVG now, their AVG career, and how far below their career average they are:
Ichiro .271, .331, -.060
Vidro .193, .300, -.107
Beltre .248, .271, -.023
Ibanez .299, .284, +.014
Lopez .315, .266, +.049
Johjima .227, .282, -.055
Clement .182, .233, -.051
Balentien .222, .246, -.024
Betancourt .257, .281, -.024
You're telling me that 1 hitter out of 9 is killing the ball and to some degree close to on par with where he'll be as a player career and one other guy is roughly at or exceeding his normal numbers, while every other player is struggling and you don't think they'll all start hitting the hell out of the ball and bring their numbers back to something closer to what they normally put up?! WoW!!
Since Lopez is only 24 now and his partial seasons, in 2004 and 2005 really sabotage his numbers, he's really a much more complete player than his stats indicate and you can't tell me that Balentien and Clement won't figure out the MLB pitchers soon as a regular and become more productive than their "career" numbers that I posted!
This team as a whole is due to score about 6 runs per game the rest of the season and players in their prime which all of them are, always get back to soemthing close to their norms, even an off year is in some cases .050 higher on the batting average for half the team!
Posted by: BaseballGuru | May 14, 2008 at 08:21 PM
Okay, well two things to reply to... One as far as Griffey goes, they'll probably pick up the option, but they know that he'll probably pay for that twice over with his ability to draw fans, so it won't really effect the payroll, the money you speak of with Vidro and Sexson coming off the books is going to go towards a long term option at 1B like Teixeira and with Griffey and Ibanez being older players, they'll need their time to rest, so Clement will probably get weined back to 120 games and taking over for Burke as the full-time backstop next year... He'll probably see 40 at C and 80 at DH. When Balentien gets a day off Griffey would play right and Ibanez to left, otherwise Ibanez will be predominately a DH unless giving a corner OF a day off or replacing the 1B for a day here or there.
As for your second question, Keppinger just fractured his knee cap last night, so they need a SS until Gonzalez comes back, but even after that they'll need another guy to be a utility infielder and corner outfield guy to replace the loss of Freel. It also means sending a 1MM back to Cinci! That's the big part!
Posted by: BaseballGuru | May 14, 2008 at 08:29 PM
To the first numbers post.
I'm not saying they won't bounce back. They have to. There is no way they all can underachieve like this all year. Last year, they were an enigma getting better results than they should have. This year, they are underachieving badly and will snap out of it. My point is they have dug themselves into such a big hole they would have to play something like .640 baseball the rest of the season to win 90 games.
That is way too much to expect.
The second post..
Teix won't come there. He's an east coast guy through and through. Think Yankees ro Baltimore. He's overrated anyway and is going to get a huge contract. Like 20+mil per. Way to much for a first baseman. Plus with Kenji's contract, that pretty much sets Clement as the future 1B especially with Junior added. Raul and or Junior would have to take the bulk of the DHing duties.
Griffey's money would in now way hamstring the Mariners but I can see them accepting Griffey as the the be all, end all to the offensive woes. They will try to sell him off to the fans as THE missing piece. You know it and I know it, this team is more than one missing offensive piece away from true contention.
Bring Griffey back! Just don't trade anymore young promising players to do it.
Posted by: thr33niL | May 14, 2008 at 08:42 PM
I'm with you on the young players not being traded, but having Adam Moore in the minors with Luis Oliveros as another good option doesn't deplete our catchers and with Burke, Clement, and Johjima on the MLB roster, we have plenty of time to reload the minors with good catchers and a draft in the next few weeks could be an easy way to do that!
Cairo is a spare part and Freel is too expensive for the Reds, but not too big an expense for the Mariners. To that extent, let's bring in Hatteberg for Burke straight up to allow them to move Ross to 1B to platoon with Votto. Then our bench would be Sexson, Vidro, Hatteberg, Freel, Bloomquist, and Hatteberg could be the emergency third catcher and a LH pinch hitter!
Posted by: BaseballGuru | May 14, 2008 at 10:34 PM
As for the lineup an outfield of Balentien, Ichiro, and Griffey is playable, the infield is going to be a huge strength defensively, real soon! With Beltre, Betancourt, Lopez, and Ibanez or Clement, this team is ready to take off!
By the way, speaking of defense, it's a big reason why the struggles of the offense has been magnified... You take away the b.s. game(1) lossed to the Rangers on the homerun by Hamilton against Putz when he was injured, the blown save games(2) against the Orioles in the opening series of the season and then the game(1) the Angels won on the 19th of April, where Washuburn had the whole width of the baseball over the plate and above the knee, a strike by 2.5 inches in any direction.
Posted by: BaseballGuru | May 14, 2008 at 10:35 PM
That play would've been strike three and inning over, but they went on to score 3 that inning with two outs, and it forced the offense to play for more runs rather than playing small ball for the win... Plus Anaheim stealing two or three homeruns away in the 9th inning alone?!
You've got to be kidding me, this team is do for hitting, for defense, and for luck, that means it could easily be a 10 game winning streak or two coming around the corner which would bring them back to even and beyond. Then what a 54% winning percentage gets them in the playoffs... If they can lose that many games, they can win that many...
Posted by: BaseballGuru | May 14, 2008 at 10:37 PM
Just imagine if they had just those 4 games back and they would be only two games under .500 and no one would be saying sh*t about them and they'd be going about their business. I mean Santana for Anaheim twice, Lee for Cleveland once, Gabbard for Texas twice, Cabrera for Baltimore twice, these guys suck, maybe sucks a little strong, but other than Lee and Santana, these guys are WAY overachieving and even Santana and Lee are stupid good this year and that surely will not last...
I mean when you play 7 games against pitchers throwing lights out, when they just aren't that good, it's a freak occurance, it can't be maintained and the Mariners will be winning 8 and 9 games out of every 10 within no time!
Posted by: BaseballGuru | May 14, 2008 at 10:38 PM
thr33nil,
A quick question... You said you watch all the Mariners games this season... What's your take on Sean Green and the bullpen?! For some reason Green drives me crazy... I don't mean in a giddy school girl sense either! I mean he's got to be at fault for a hell of a lot of runners scoring... I feel like his ERA is VERY misleading!!
I like Putz, Morrow, Rowland-Smith, Lowe, Rhodes, but I wish Corcoran was still up on the roster and Baek leaves me a little flat, he's serviceable, but not great as a reliever, I like him much more as a starter... Also he seems a little flat personality wise and I like my pitchers to be more emotional... Well RRS can get away with the quiet guy thing, he's like Rick Vaughn from MLB the movie or Tom Hanke the old closer for the Blue Jays, cracks me up!
Am I crazy or should we be getting rid of Green while he has high trade value?! I got your other missing piece after pulling the trigger on Griffey and Freel! We trade Richie Sexson to NYM for Angel Pagan and some young A level pitcher, we eat half his contract like Reds eat half of Griffey's to make it like we are trading Sexson for Griffey and paying the same amount.
Then we trade Sean Green, Cha Seung Baek, Angel Pagan, and Yung Chi Chen too Pittsburg for Jason Bay and Bryan Bullington. Bullington becomes the backup starter if someone gets injured and goes to Tacoma and R.A. Dickey becomes the long reliever.
It would allow Corcoran and Dickey to get promoted, makes room on the roster for when the draft picks come on board after signing, and Clement can become the full-time backup catcher, backup 1B, maybe even teach him 3B, but you get a lineup that has depth to deal with injuries, Balentien would be the super sub outfielder, with Freel being the middle infield back up, Bloomquist the pinch runner and defensive replacement!
Posted by: BaseballGuru | May 14, 2008 at 11:06 PM
Oh and make Hatteberg the LH PH and 3rd catcher...
Posted by: BaseballGuru | May 14, 2008 at 11:10 PM
Wow man you are way too specific. No way any of those trades happen. Bay and Bullington would require more than a handful of mid-level types. Also no way NY would want Sexson after the Delgado situation. Sexson and Delgado are the same type of player. Past star that all of the sudden suck.
Corcoran should have stayed around. Greens problems have been a lack of control and some clutch issues. The bully is shaping up though. The last two long relief shots Baek has had, he really put up. I like the guy in that role.
I see Sexson staying the whole season if he can put up halfway decent numbers. There just isn't any other options right now outside of Raul. That might happen if they trade for Junior.
Best case scenario if Richie keeps sucking.
CF Ichiro
2B Lopez
1B Ibanez
RF Griffey
3B Beltre
DH Clement
C Johjima
LF Balentien
SS Betancourt
Posted by: thr33niL | May 15, 2008 at 01:09 AM
If you got butchered by Darkstar every time you post anything, you'd be specific too... I have to out specify his stupidity and that's no easy task, believe it or not! Yeah, I've seen the control and clutch issues, but am I being overly critical about the guy or do you agree that he doesn't look like he'll come around and start becoming a more solid pitcher?
Another idea for you, what about moving Balentien to 2nd in the order to force him to think contact instead of power get him to stop striking out!
I'd go maybe
Ichiro
Balentien
Griffey
Beltre
Lopez
Ibanez
Johjima
Clement
Betancourt
I know Lopez is looking really comfortable batting 5th and Betancourt looks anything but out of the 9-hole! Ichiro's the leadoff hitter and Beltre's best numbers come at cleanup, Griffey prefers the three hole, the rest was the best for each...
Posted by: BaseballGuru | May 15, 2008 at 01:34 AM
my useless, yet fun lineup:
ichiro!
lopez
griffey
beltre
ibanez
sexson
clement
balentin
betancourt
Posted by: KMD | May 15, 2008 at 10:21 AM
was the johjima omission an oversight...or intentional?
Posted by: KMD | May 15, 2008 at 10:23 AM
No, what's shortsighted is trading for an past-his-prime slugger in the misguided belief that he gives the team a chance to win it all. The M's are like the quasi-Blue Jays, never that horrible but never good enough to win it all.
"Ichiro .271, .331, -.060
Vidro .193, .300, -.107
Beltre .248, .271, -.023
Ibanez .299, .284, +.014
Lopez .315, .266, +.049
Johjima .227, .282, -.055
Clement .182, .233, -.051
Balentien .222, .246, -.024
Betancourt .257, .281, -.024"
Of all the ridiculous arguments. You're using career BA as some sort of indicator of true talent? Even if we accept that ridiculous premise: 2 guys are + so they're dismissed from your argument. 2 of them have 60 or fewer major league ABs.
Of the remaining 5: I can personally guarantee that Vidro will never hit .300 again. There's a very real chance that Vidro, Beltre, Johjima, even Ichiro have their best years behind them.
Of course, once you get into real statistics your argument really falls apart. Beltre's BA is .023 pts behind his career? How astonishing, then, to find that he's currently recording his highest OPS+ EVER (aside from his unbelievable outlying '04). Betancourt has never been and never will be a good hitter. Lopez is murdering the ball at an unsustainable rate. Sure, some guys are likely to rebound, but others are as likely to come back to earth. You've also shown no evidence that the Mariners' hitters are slumping any worse than their competitors'. Or any evidence that they've faced tougher pitching.
Sorry I can't respond more in-depth to your 12,000 words in this thread but I have, you know, other things to do.
Posted by: asm | May 15, 2008 at 02:59 PM
“Sorry I can't respond more in-depth to your 12,000 words in this thread but I have, you know, other things to do.”
…Asm, don’t bother wasting your time ~ if youre not a Mariners fan, its not going to go anywhere. If you don’t believe his theory, he will end up going off into another 5 post, 3 thousand word rant which will almost certainly be heavily-based on such strong evidence as “You don’t know what youre talking about. Youre a loser. You probably live in your moms basement. No one loves you because youre ignorant” etc... He’s been going like that for maybe 2-3 months, insisting things like “Beltre is just like Ron Santo”, “Beltre and Sexson are sure-thing First-Ballot HOFers”, “Clement is not a prospect but rather a guaranteed 300/35/100 hitter”, etc… If you don’t believe that stuff, well then youll get the “you live in your moms basement” argument… I think Nrmax and I had like 3 continuing arguments with him, over maybe 4-5 posts (the three I mentioned, and the forth was when he proclaimed Dunn doesn’t produce runs and should hit 7th or lower.) Now come to find out that my not believing those things means I’m to blame for all his personality issues... Well, like I said to start…
Posted by: darkstar1661 | May 16, 2008 at 05:41 AM