The Holliday Situation

You think Boston becomes interested now that Ortiz is out?

That way they can also drop Manny's option and replace him in LF next year

jza1218-

The Sox have internal options for the OF/DH situation they're in with Papi's injury. I'd be surprised to see them jump on something now.

I also don't see Holliday being a good replacement for Manny next year. Personally, I'd like to see Manny retire in a Sox jersey.

It won't be the Red Sox. Manny or Drew can DH (the other will be in the field) and the other two OFs are Crisp and Ellsbury... then you still have Moss to backup. They managed to still survive while Lowell was out, they can at least hold their own with Ortiz out. If it is for the whole season tho, maybe they will make a play for a loaner that can DH and pinch hit... at least for the post season.

As much as I would like to see Manny retire with the Sox, I think Holliday would be a great addition. Manny has had a little hot streak recently and his still a great hitter but I think it's safe to say that his 30 homerun seasons are dwindling if not gone. The real question is what would they have to give up for for him in addition to the long, expensive contract. Probably a similar discussion to this past offseason around Santana and I don't know if the Sox can afford to part with Ellsbury or Lester as they are both major leauge contributors this year.

How would Manny take it if the Sox traded for Holliday? Even Manny would be able to read the writing on the wall on that one, so not only would the Sox be without Ortiz, but they would also have a very disgruntled Manny on the team for the remainder of the year. Not a good idea.

Stewart going to 2B was kind of a "throw it at the position and see if it sticks" move." Barmes eventually stuck so that could be solved (though Stewart has split time there while Barmes is on the DL). I am guessing that if Holliday is the one to be traded then Atkins will be kept, moving him to 1B once Helton is done and opening up 3B for Stewart...or Atkins could be dealt, either way you slice it Stewart takes over at 3B.

AA, that's incorrect, Holliday's home-road splits are huge. Last year his home/road splits had a difference of about 250 points in slugging. He had more than twice the number of home runs at home than on the road. This year is the same so far. Holliday is far more worthy a player in Colorado than for anyone else.

Also no, fenway isn't a pitchers park but it's not a launching pad either. Look at the stats, it's consistantly in the back half of homer friendly parks.

Three things are working against the Rockies now.

1. The market has continued to trend toward overvaluing young talent. Tex being traded this year would not return the same value as the Rangers received last year.

2. Holliday isn't playing as well this year. Plus he is coping with injury issues.

3. His splits are insane. Good hitter - yes. But being optimistic I would guess that he is a 900 OPS corner outfielder if moved. That's fine and all, but certainly not worth top minor league talent to trade for him + a 6/115 type contract that Boras will demand.

I would like to see the Yankees get involved ... Fuentes and Holliday for Melky, Kennedy, and Veras may be appropriate (perhaps another prospect can be thrown in).
The Yankees could move Damon back to Center for the rest of the year and, next year, let Abreu catch on elsewhere.

rossdfarian..i think the yanks would have to offer alittle more then that to get Holliday...

"I didn't say that Holliday's home-road splits weren't bad, I said that the general argument about Coors isn't. It may be that Holliday feels better playing in front of the home crowd."

Haha yes I'm sure that's it.

In defense of AA, I think what they were really saying is that thought Holliday's splits might not prove it, in GENERAL the humidor has helped, and it's not fair to necessarily devalue a hitter based on them playing at Coors Field, when players playing at places like Citizens Bank Park are not devalued, even though they're in a hitter's park that's even worse than Coors.

And yes, Holliday's splits do leave something to be desired, but as AA pointed out, Helton has been better on the road this year, Atkins has been better on the road this year, and either last year or in 2006, Hawpe had a LOT more home runs on the road. So yes, the splits for Holliday suck, but let's not blame it on Coors...let's blame it on Holliday.

Come on rossdfarian ...

Three for two - here's who you suggested:

Cabrera - low 700 OPS / 4th OF on most teams
Kennedy - 0-3 / 7.41 ERA / Projects as a 4/5 starter
Veras - middle reliever with close to a 4 ERA

for

Fuentes - under 3 ERA in Coors / has been a successful closer
Holliday - runner up 2007 MVP / currently posting an OPS of 950+

You mentioned that another prospect might need to be thrown in to get it done. That prospect's name better start with Phillip or Joba.

Fuentes by himself is more valuable than 2 of the 3. Holliday by himself is certainly more valuable than all 3.

Having better stats at home vs the road is nothing to worry too much about.

However, this isn't a slight discrepancy ... a few hits here, a few bombs there.

For Holliday the differences are between the best hitter in baseball (when he plays at home) and a 3rd/4th outfielder (when he is away). Darkstar provided the stats. No way am I buying that a 250 point swing in his OPS is anything but park related.

It is true that SOME players in Colorado have similar or better splits away from home. However, that alone doesn't prove that anything. Many factors contribute to Holliday's success that might not translate to other players.

The contract would be a deterrent unless they just make the trade contingent on signing Holliday to an extension like they did in the Johan trade. Problem solved. Either way you look at it though you are getting a perrenial MVP candidate with a 1.000 FPCT this year and a decent arm, at home and on the road.

Holliday will not end up in a Red Sox, Cubs, nor Yankees jersey if it involves a trade (it can happen through Free agency).

Also, I believe the vast majority have better stats at home, it has to do with the travel, and all that fun stuff.

The most logical place that I see is the Indians.

If you are all interested in my trade proposal, please check out my blog at.

http://talkfromprogressivefield.blogspot.com

“For Holliday the differences are between the best hitter in baseball (when he plays at home) and a 3rd/4th outfielder (when he is away). Darkstar provided the stats. No way am I buying that a 250 point swing in his OPS is anything but park related.”

…I don’t know if I would go as far as “3rd/4th outfielder” ~ well, depending on the team I guess…

But the thing is, Holliday seems to be a contact or pure hitter with more warning-track power ~ in the mold of a Garko type (better of course, but you get the idea). Or maybe think of Matsui, that’s probably a good example ~ higher BA and some power; most of it 2B power though unless the stadium adjusts that… His home/road BA difference is generally the difference of XBH, his OBP follows that adjustment, his XBH difference is extreme creating the SLG variance ~ it all makes sense… Probably expect .275-ish with walks giving a .360-.370 OBP and quite a few doubles, but around 25 dingers in most stadiums…

Oh, and I probably would not trade more for Holliday than I would Dunn, if that sets what I think his value is...

I have to laugh at cubs fans. With an already over filled outfield you still want more? You have enough for two outfields (exaggeration) Soriano, Pie, Fukodome, Edmonds, Murton, come on. But it'll also never happen. The cubs don't have the prospects to get Holliday.

"Oh, and I probably would not trade more for Holliday than I would Dunn, if that sets what I think his value is..."

I think that is a good evaluation. Holliday is faster and makes better contact while Dunn has more power and patience.

"Or maybe think of Matsui, that’s probably a good example ~ higher BA and some power; most of it 2B power though unless the stadium adjusts that…"

I like the Matsui comparison, except that Matsui is a better defensive player and hits left-handed. The more I think about it, the more I see Holliday as a good MLB player who had a great year.

To illustrate my point as to why Holliday WON'T be traded...

'do you think that Pie and Cedeno would be enough to get Holliday to the North side?'

'The Giants don't have enough pitching to get Holliday. The starting point would be, Cain/Lincecum (one or the other) Jonathan Sanchez, Madison Bumgarner + 1 more.'

'Fuentes and Holliday for Melky, Kennedy, and Veras may be appropriate'

These three proposals vary sooooo wildly in terms of the value exchanged because of how little Holliday's own value is understood or agreed upon.

The Cubs and Yankees proposals are ridiculously low for a talent of Holliday's caliber, while the San Fran counterpoint is absolutely ape-s*#$ batty the other way around. Cain/Lincecum, Sanchez, Bumgarner and a fourth?! NO. Colorado would do a deal for much less, I'm certain. Nevertheless, they're all representative of the problem that comes with dealing with Colorado and the inherent risk and related (perceived) exchange rate inequities.

Yeah, no one is trying to say Holliday isnt a good player ~ it’s the probable situation of paying for Pujols and getting something closer to Abreu that’s the concern. Would it suck to add an Abreu type to your lineup? No, not at all… But it sure would suck to pay 2-3 times what ya probably should have for him…

And heres the thing, the split statistics sum up the difference between his play at Home vs his play on the Road, but it might not be completely showing how dramatic it is. So here, think of it this way…

In 2007, Holliday hit a HR every 17.7 AB. How does it specifically break down though? Well, he hit a HR once every 13.1 AB at Home vs once every 28.1 AB on the Road. What does that difference mean? Well, spread over 600 AB it’s the difference of 46 HR at Home vs 21 HR on Road. Doubles go from 28 (home) vs 22 (Road) to 51 (Home) vs 43. Triples, 5 (Home) vs 1 (Road) to 9 (Home) vs 2 (Road). Oh, and of course Hits are 1 / 2.6 AB vs 1 / 3.3 AB… All of it brings us to a total looking something like:

600 Home AB ~ 231 H / 51 2B / 9 3B / 46 HR
600 Road ABs ~ 182 H / 43 2B / 2 3B / 21 HR

…And its not just 2007 ~ here are his career rates:
600 Home AB ~ 214 H / 48 2B / 8 3B / 38 HR
600 Road ABs ~ 171 H / 38 2B / 4 3B / 19 HR

..Its rather amazing, don’t ya think? You say you can look at him and see that he is a really good player ~ I don’t dispute that because I can do the same. But to what level do you see him playing? Or more important to that would be asking which one are you watching? Are you watching the Pujols-like Home player, or the Abreu-like Road guy? Both are really good, but there is a gigantic difference as well…

And hey, maybe its just a fluke statistical anomaly or something ~ but please ponder those numbers for a min and let us know what you really think the odds of that are…

I know you all say the cubs couldn't get Holliday via trade, but how does Cedeno, Paterson, Murton, Veal, and Donaldson sound for Holliday?