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« Week In Review: 7/20 - 7/26 | Main | Jarrod Washburn Rumors »
10:02pm: Jon Heyman provides some Manny musings. Despite Manny's comments, he doesn't believe he'd waive his no-trade rights for nothing. Like others, Heyman doesn't find a trade likely.
8:36pm: Todd Zolecki finds a Manny acquisition unlikely for the Phillies, though he says they have discussed him internally. Signing Ramirez as a free agent might be more feasible, if Pat Burrell leaves.
5:40pm: Jayson Stark puts the kibosh on the idea of the Phillies pursuing Ramirez. Never made much sense anyway. Stark says the Phils remain focused on relief help.
3:56pm: Red Sox outfielder Manny Ramirez said today that he'd approve a trade if the team can reach one. The implication is that Ramirez would not require additional compensation to waive his no-trade power, but that's uncertain.
The quote:
"If they can get a trade, I'd approve it. If they can't trade me, then they will simply have to inform me by the end of the season that they won't use the options and we'll go separate ways."
Notice how Manny doesn't mention the possibility of his '09 option being exercised.
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I would love for the Sox to trade Manny. Go Rays
Posted by: tmoney352 | July 27, 2008 at 04:01 PM
New York Mets Recieve:
- Manny Ramirez
Boston Red Sox Recieve:
- Fernando Martinez
- Jon Niese
- Mike Carp
- Mid-Level Prospect
Posted by: Ty | July 27, 2008 at 04:07 PM
I would also love this. Go Yanks.
Posted by: Not Joe Morgan | July 27, 2008 at 04:07 PM
Perhaps I'm going to be totally wrong, but I don't see any possible way Ramirez brings in even close to that package. Sabathia drew less.
Posted by: Not Joe Morgan | July 27, 2008 at 04:08 PM
So does everyone in Boston. Go Sox
Posted by: 04Forever | July 27, 2008 at 04:10 PM
D Wright 5 -
you seem to be forgetting one thing... the Sox want Manny gone, which puts all the power in the hands of the suitors. BoSox are probably going to have to sell low on Manny because of all of the crap he's done this year.
Posted by: bseballcrzy17 | July 27, 2008 at 04:12 PM
D Wright 5, id take that deal in a heartbeat if we got a mlb ready reliever too, proving the mets would never do it
Posted by: 04Forever | July 27, 2008 at 04:15 PM
OMAR PLEASE GET MANNY
Posted by: Jreyes7 | July 27, 2008 at 04:18 PM
Hey D Wright 5 i think you are on crack, why would they give up their best 3 prospects for a lazy, expensive, 36 year old that might walk at the end of the year? The only guy the Mets would trade Martinez for is Holliday, but I wouldnt even do that. I would maybe trade Niese and a few B level prospects for Bay.
Posted by: nymforlife | July 27, 2008 at 04:19 PM
What a crazy trade. The Mets would not trade their entire farm system for Manny.
It would be Fmart or Niese and Evans or Carp and an MLB reliever like Show.
Posted by: coach king | July 27, 2008 at 04:19 PM
bseballcrzy17, just because the Sox want Manny gone doesn't mean they'll let themselves get shafted. remember, he's worth 2 1st-round picks in the 2009 draft (assuming he signs somewhere else in the off-season). Theo Epstein wouldn't trade him for less than the value of those prospects.
Posted by: metafrantic | July 27, 2008 at 04:20 PM
The Mets won't give up Ferdando Martinez. He's their best prospect.
And just like bseballcry17 posted, from all the crap Manny has done this year, his value has certaintly dropped.
Posted by: Sal from Tampa | July 27, 2008 at 04:21 PM
while there's almost assuredly no connection, JA Happ was pulled from his triple a start today in the middle of the third. there's conflicting reports of him getting congratulations on the bench and just trying to be kept on a low pitch count (he's thrown a lot in his past couple starts).
just food for thought for everyone.
Posted by: JohnKruksWaistLine | July 27, 2008 at 04:22 PM
metalfrantic -
i realize they won't get shafted, but they also won't get 3 top prospects prospects for him. Manny is too much of a liability for the Sox to get that much value right now.
Posted by: bseballcrzy17 | July 27, 2008 at 04:26 PM
that information, by the way, comes from phuturephillies.com.
Posted by: JohnKruksWaistLine | July 27, 2008 at 04:27 PM
Phillies minor league pitcher, JA Happ has been pulled from his start. He pitched a couple innings and was pulled with no apparent injury.
Posted by: Ty | July 27, 2008 at 04:29 PM
"remember, he's worth 2 1st-round picks in the 2009 draft"
Not necessarily true. Boston would have to offer him arbitration which would be really risky.
Posted by: Not Joe Morgan | July 27, 2008 at 04:29 PM
bseballcrzy17,
3 top prospects - no, probably not. But whatever 2 of the top 50 players available in next year's draft are worth, which is a good bit.
Manny also has the value of the production he'd provide for the next few months, although his cost and bahavior negate that value. But the Sox could always send cash with him to help and raise the value of their return for him.
Posted by: metafrantic | July 27, 2008 at 04:31 PM
I might be wrong with this, but I think the team only gets its two draft picks if it offers arbitration.
Manny has done stranger things in his time ...
Posted by: dproc0219 | July 27, 2008 at 04:31 PM
Not Joe Morgan,
That's true, but I can't imagine after all this that Manny would accept arbitration. It would mean that the Sox had declined his options, which would mena he'd be playing for a good bit less than the $20m. Manny clearly feels "entitled" to that money, so if the Sox refuse to pay him that, He'd surely go elsewhere. Plus, another team would almost definitely give him a 3 or 4-year contract, which is a lot better for him at this point than only 1 guaranteed year.
Posted by: metafrantic | July 27, 2008 at 04:34 PM
**** JA Happ was pulled from his triple a start today in the middle of the third.****
I was told that Marson didn't start today and Golson was pulled from the Reading game.
Posted by: RuffinTumble | July 27, 2008 at 04:36 PM
metafrantic, he's not worth two 1st round picks at all...
For one, the Red Sox can't decline his option AND offer arbitration, Manny would do that just to screw them as there is no way in H-E-Double Hockey sticks that he gets 4MM less than his current contract in arbitration and there's no long-term deals on the horizon, my guess is he'll go to arbitration every year if given the chance.
Which brings me to my next point, nobody will pay Manny 20MM a season in FA, so if the team holding him, DID offer arbitration, chances are he'd see a 20% increase or about 4MM more, so he'd cost 24MM if he accepts their offer of arbitration OR he could sign a deal for about 15MM a year to be a super-DH as his defense is laughable and should be a deduction to his salary at this point.
Posted by: BaseballGuru | July 27, 2008 at 04:38 PM
I really think the market for him is going to be somewhat soft, especially with Burrell and Dunn (two similar, younger players who won't be coming down from a $20MM salary) available.
Posted by: Not Joe Morgan | July 27, 2008 at 04:40 PM
If that's a Bruce Ruffin reference, I'd like to give you an internet high-five.
Posted by: Not Joe Morgan | July 27, 2008 at 04:41 PM
Also metafrantic, where do you get a decrease in pay from using the arbitration process?! I think a player has ever gone to arb. and got LESS money twice and both times it was due to an injury... Guaranteed, he gets a buyout plus no less than 80% of his current annual deal, which would be $16MM, again, way more than he'd get on the free agent market. Nobody is desperate enough to pay $16MM a year, let alone in a long term deal to a 36 year old with no defensive skills, causes trouble in the clubhouse, and when you can pick his current production up at the corner store with a pack of cigarettes and the local paper. Sorry, but you could rationalize trading 4 middle to high end prospects for a middle of the order youngin', more than you can shell out $16MM a season for Manny and sleep easy, regardless of your payroll threshhold... The Mariners are offensively depleted and there is no way I want Manny on the team, no matter the cost... Point being his arb. will guaranteed be 16MM for next season + buyout, which is like $4MM, so it guarantees the team holding his contract CAN'T offer arb. without paying atleast what he made the year before. As for arb., he's in line to make 22-25MM for 2009 if he was offered it.
Posted by: BaseballGuru | July 27, 2008 at 04:44 PM
"I was told that Marson didn't start today and Golson was pulled from the Reading game."
Only half right. Marson didnt play, but Golson was still batting in the bottom of the eight. Golson and Happ?? We'll find out shortly if there is anything to it.
Posted by: forlife61 | July 27, 2008 at 04:45 PM
****If that's a Bruce Ruffin reference, I'd like to give you an internet high-five.****
That's definitely a Bruce Ruffin reference. I had to decide between that or "Carmen Get It". Yep; Don Carmen baby.
Posted by: RuffinTumble | July 27, 2008 at 04:46 PM
Burrell's not available.
I'm scared now if Marson didn't start today. Sure it could be a regular day off but who knows.
Golson I won't cry over and Happ isn't too bad, but please, don't trade away Sweet Lou, PG.
Posted by: JohnKruksWaistLine | July 27, 2008 at 04:47 PM
Manny to the Dodgers for Juan Pierre, Andy LaRoche, Scott Elbert and Ivan DeJesus? Pierre's arm wouldn't look so bad in the short left field at Fenway and combining his speed with Ellsbury's would be frightening in front of the power in that lineup.
Posted by: AA | July 27, 2008 at 04:47 PM
BaseballGuru,
Even if Manny would get as much or more than $20m in arbitration that doesn't mean he'd take it. He's said multiple times this season that he wants to play for 4 more years; a 1-year contract would be a big detriment to that. Some team out there would give him a 3 or 4-year contract, albeit for less money. There's a good chance he'd find that preferable, especially considering the bad blood he's created in Boston right now.
Manny's above quote strongly indicates that he wants out; of course he's said that before, but now that Red Sox management has shown they won't put up with his antics any more, he could really meant it - plus he's potentially on the verge of a free-agent contract that could get him the 4 years he wants. (also remember he switched agents to Scott Boras, who ALWAYS wants to take his players to free agency).
Posted by: metafrantic | July 27, 2008 at 04:56 PM
relax phils fans. wasn't marson heading for Beijing soon? Oh and golson is still playing he's got the golden sombrero today! i would be worried about happ though.
Posted by: philsWSchamps | July 27, 2008 at 04:57 PM
You people talking about Manny bringing back two first round picks really have no clue how the process works.
Just don't say anything if you don't know what you're talking about. It serves the world a favor
Posted by: jza1218 | July 27, 2008 at 05:01 PM
I like Happ but I won't worry if he's traded for something that helps the rest of this year. He's at best probably a back end of the rotation guy, and we've got enough of those (now and in the pipeline).
Posted by: JohnKruksWaistLine | July 27, 2008 at 05:01 PM
"You people talking about Manny bringing back two first round picks really have no clue how the process works."
I think its been pretty well hashed out. If his option is declined and Boston offers arbitration to Manny, who then signs elsewhere, Boston will get a 1st and a Supp (or 2nd and a Supp if its a bottom half team). Add anything if you like.
Posted by: Not Joe Morgan | July 27, 2008 at 05:09 PM
NJM, you may want to point out that there's a chance Manny only brings something like a #40 and #50 overall, as opposed to 2 high draft picks like everyone is making it out to be. It's important to recognize that 50% of the prospective buyers don't net you a first rounder.
Posted by: 92-93 | July 27, 2008 at 05:14 PM
I did in my parenthetical (although the odds are greater than 50% that Manny would sign with a 1st tier team). Regardless, its two top 60 picks.
Posted by: Not Joe Morgan | July 27, 2008 at 05:19 PM
Buying low on Manny does make perfect sense for the Mets since they need a power right handed bat and can afford it. If the Mets offer arbitration and he accepts great and they gradually work Fernando Martinez in next year. If he declines great we get the two draft picks next year.
There is a chance but usually teams with the money to sign Manny finish 16-30 so most likely he will get you a first rounder and a supplemental pick.
Posted by: metsfan | July 27, 2008 at 05:20 PM
92-93, that's true; half the teams would net a 1st-round pick (Pick #16-30), plus the sandwich pick between the 1st and 2nd round. If it was one of the other teams, then the Sox would get that team's 2nd-round pick instead, plus the same sandwich pick. Even the 2nd-round pick is still pretty valuable, although of course not close to the 1st-round.
That sandwich pick is pretty valuable; remember, the Sox got Clay Buchholz, Jed Lowrie and Mike Bowden all as sandwich picks in the 2005 draft.
Posted by: metafrantic | July 27, 2008 at 05:25 PM
Wait a minute ... Manny Ramirez and the Boston Red Sox have opened up a seemingly unrepairable rift ... pre-trade deadline mind you ... and there are hardly any insane trade proposals? Why do I even visit this site? lol cmon guys
Posted by: iamsam33 | July 27, 2008 at 05:31 PM
Check the other thread. Billingsley is part of a package deal if the Reyes option falls through.
Posted by: Not Joe Morgan | July 27, 2008 at 05:32 PM
Lets get a couple of things straight:
1) The only way this deal makes sense if its a Dunn to Red Sox, Manny to Phillies, and prospects from both teams to Reds deal. The Reds know that they really can't afford Dunn in that outfield again next year and can't risk going to arbitration for picks in the event he accepts again. Plus, they actually would have a modocum of leverage in the deal as the Red Sox would clearly need to replace Manny's production with someone other than Coco Crisp...
2) If a team declines Manny's $20 million club option there is NO way they will offer him arbitration (and thus potentially be compensated with picks). Manny would be looking at $20mm+ through the arbitration process (I'd guess around $25mm) and there would be a real chance he'd end up accepting with Dunn and Burrell more attractive options on the FA market due to their age. Basically, a team declining the team option would be admitting that Manny isn't worth that much and then would be making him an offer for MORE.
Posted by: jcmurder | July 27, 2008 at 05:33 PM
"New York Mets Recieve:
- Manny Ramirez
Boston Red Sox Recieve:
- Fernando Martinez
- Jon Niese
- Mike Carp
- Mid-Level Prospect"
BREAKING NEWS. FOR THE FIRST TIME IN THE HISTORY OF MLBTR, A FAN PROPOSES A TRADE WHERE HIS OWN TEAM GETS ABSOLUTELY RAPED. STOP THE PRESSES.
In all seriousness though, that trade would probably cost Omar Minaya his job.
Posted by: nrmax88 | July 27, 2008 at 05:49 PM
But it would put him in line to be Coletti's right hand man.
Posted by: Not Joe Morgan | July 27, 2008 at 05:50 PM
NJM, where have ya been? I miss your one liners. I got a chuckle out of the Billingsley is in line if the Reyes option falls through post. Anybody else stolen any computers or anything lately?
Posted by: nrmax88 | July 27, 2008 at 06:01 PM
I drift. Always fun to come here during the offseason, at the trade deadline and whenever a Red Sox player does something really dumb. Getting 2 out of those 3 at the same time is a bonus.
Posted by: Not Joe Morgan | July 27, 2008 at 06:13 PM
I am a huge sox fan, but it is clear manny will not be traded before the deadline.
Posted by: cseek39 | July 27, 2008 at 06:29 PM
"So does everyone in Boston. Go Sox
Posted by: 04Forever | July 27, 2008 at 04:10 PM "
Yeah, not so much. The day Manny Ramirez is no longer a member of the Sox is a sh*t day.
Posted by: ArodSucksAtLife | July 27, 2008 at 06:33 PM
"NJM, where have ya been? I miss your one liners. I got a chuckle out of the Billingsley is in line if the Reyes option falls through post. Anybody else stolen any computers or anything lately?
Posted by: nrmax88 | July 27, 2008 at 06:01 PM "
Don't make me hurt you.
Posted by: ArodSucksAtLife | July 27, 2008 at 06:34 PM
Haha, please don't hurt me. I love how NJM's mortal MLBTR enemy ArodSucksatlife shows up right as I bring up the Clay Buchholz thievery. Classic. Somebody scripting this?
Posted by: nrmax88 | July 27, 2008 at 06:42 PM
Gammo said on BBTN, the Sox are willing to pay the remainder of Manny's '08 salary, to up the return.
mortal enemy? he's one of the few rational insightful interesting posters on here. I'd assume his "mortal enemy" would be the gibberish that Guru spouts, or the irrational bigotry of bsox21. But yeah, 10 million bucks, Manny, and the draft pick compensation that comes with him should bring a nice haul.
Posted by: ArodSucksAtLife | July 27, 2008 at 06:52 PM
add:
even if he roots for a crap team.
Posted by: ArodSucksAtLife | July 27, 2008 at 06:54 PM
as much as I've been a fan of Manny's bat since he's been in the Majors I don't think the Mets need him. Regardless of what people think Tatis/Chavez would be a great option the rest of the year in LF as long as Church comes back healthy. He should be coming this week for rehab. So The Mets should sit on the deadline unless they can get a solid reliever!
If Church can't come back would Barry Bonds not be a decent Fall rental? I mean he'll get on base right?
Posted by: RIPShea | July 27, 2008 at 06:57 PM
Wow, I missed this comment... Manny, talking about the Red Sox today: "I'm tired of them. They're tired of me."
Apparently he's decided to burn his bridges BEFORE crossing them. If there was any question about the Red Sox picking up his option for next year, this should kill the idea.
Posted by: metafrantic | July 27, 2008 at 07:00 PM
Possibly because its not worth remembering, but I can't remember a time I was more happy about a rain delay.
Posted by: Not Joe Morgan | July 27, 2008 at 07:18 PM
Arod... I was only joking. I have seen you two goin at it plenty of times over Buchholz etc.
Posted by: nrmax88 | July 27, 2008 at 07:28 PM
"OR he could sign a deal for about 15MM a year to be a super-DH as his defense is laughable and should be a deduction to his salary at this point."
Is it really though? The guy knows the Monster better than anyone currently in baseball and he still can throw. Further, the short left field at Fenway will always depress RF because you will get fewer outs.
Posted by: AA | July 27, 2008 at 07:33 PM
There's no edge to those jokes this year with Buchholz being a non-factor.
Posted by: Not Joe Morgan | July 27, 2008 at 07:36 PM
How about Manny and the entire Portland Seadogs to the Mets for Reyes and Beltran? Just kidding.... but seriously, if the Mets would ever let Reyes go....
I don't think Manny is going anywhere. Maybe if they couple him with a young pitcher and take on some of the salary, they might be able to pull the trigger to bring in somebody that would improve the chances of winning this year....
Posted by: 9thmanout | July 27, 2008 at 07:37 PM
You are not seriously going to argue the defensive merits of a guy who was rolling around in the LF grass like a trained golden retriever?! Seriously... Enough, his defense is still laughable, and we are talking for a team NOT PLAYING IN BOSTON!! His value to Boston not withstanding since he won't be playing there soon... And to answer that portion, yes his defense is still laughable... I believe it was in Boston where he cut off Damon's throw in short LF, less than 10 feet from where he was throwing it from, BRILLIANT MOVE!! That was at Fenway, so yes, his defensive errors come home to roost even in Boston!
Posted by: BaseballGuru | July 27, 2008 at 07:38 PM
He's a Canseco kind of stupid in the outfield... Like he takes can play defense to an all new level... Like Glenallen Hill was just lazy, Cust lacks cordination. Manny is part mental retardation, part lazines, part indifference, partly uncoordinated, and part of him just lacks the fundamental understanding of the game.
He did learn to be Manny being Manny from the biggest ASS in baseball since Ty Cobb, none other than Albert Belle, so go figure he has all the flaws to his personality and work ethic.
Posted by: BaseballGuru | July 27, 2008 at 07:44 PM
METAFRANTIC (did you see this?!)
Okay let's cover this one more time...
(Boras loves money not long term deals, just uses long term deals to hide inconsistencies with his clients. For a consistent performer like Manny he'd go year to year at this point, he's not A-Rod-Poster-Child-Type-Marketable, especially with his behavior)
RULES OF ARBITRATION
*Can't make less than 20% of previous years contract
*Unless you drastically fall off from the previous year, like Rolen has for instance or have been injured, you'll make a raise.
*Less than 5% of arbitration cases go in favor of the low bidder.
*Less than 1% of arbitration cases become a reduction.
*A supplemental first round pick is given for ANY Type A or Type B free agents, with an additional draft pick.
-- No higher than the 2nd round for a Type B
-- A 1st round for a Type A, when the signing team drafts in the 16-30 slots, and/or when there is even a 1st round pick to be signed (dependent upon whomelse that team has signed in addition to the other ranked players they've acquired through FA.)
-- Picks are then handed out in order of rankings for the players taken(highest player gets previous team the 1st or 2nd round, depending on draft slot, every other ranked FA signing goes in order 2nd or 3rd for the next highest rated signed by the same team, and so on until all teams losing Type A or Type B players have been compensated.)
NOW FOR THE ARGUMENT
You make the point he's not wanted in Boston...
A) We are talking about compensation for a trade, so clearly he won't be in Boston.
B) If he's in Boston, then it doesn't matter what draft picks the Red Sox can or can't get from offering arb.
C) Determining value is for the team receiving Manny, so they know what to give up.
D) If Manny stays in Boston than the Red Sox wouldn't decline his option anyways, no matter how pissed he is or they are, because that's the type of stuff that leads to Manny being Manny in the big Apple, AL style.
E) If Manny gets a long term deal for 4 years, look for him to get about 60-70MM Definitely no more and probably less.
F) To be a 20MM a year player you have to be in your prime, play great on both sides of the ball, be a good clubhouse/media friendly player. At 20MM/yr. you are selling your soul, not your game.
G) If Manny accepts arb., he CAN'T make LESS than $16MM, based on previous cases (in a legal system based on pre-existing case law, so it's more than a hunch or speculation), he WILL NOT make less than $22MM per year and figures to see a raise to $24MM.
H) If Manny gets even 22MM than next year you go back to the table knowing that even injured he'll get $17.6MM MINIMUM. Realistically, he again won't get less than his current salary, but figure another 10% increase, so he'll be making $24MM roughly. By year three, he'll be at $27MM. By year four, he'll make 29MM.
I) Even if he stays at $27MM by year four, then he's making EXACTLY $100MM over 4 years. Do you really think that Manny will leave $30MM over only 4 years on the table best case scenario and more like $40-45MM over that time period, realistically?! Of course not, he makes enough money that he's better off taking arbitration.
J) Arbitration benefits ONLY the player and Manny and his agent will know this, REGARDLESS of who that is.
K) If Manny is traded to another team, then compensation has to be figured.
-- Assuming he will not get his option picked up, you have to compensate for what he does for you now, a A/AA level player who has marginal to decent upside.
-- Then you compensate for money, means the Red Sox taking on a big contract, which begs the question, who would it be?!
-- Then finally you determine if there is any value in offering arbitration and what would you get?!
-- In the case of Manny he'd accept, so you'd get nothing. Clearly if he got traded to the Mets, they would either pick up his option or let him walk, there is no offering arbitration because that means he's not going back to Boston, and that'll be another team he KNOWS won't offer him a contract, meaning arb. will seem that much better.
-- Going around the league:
AL WEST
Anaheim could be a fit for Manny, but only if Anderson doesn't stay, since they have too many big contracts and too many outfielders.
Oakland would never make that investment.
Texas, doesn't need more offense, especially at DH or LF.
Seattle, would never bring Manny here, care too much about image (personally I love his bat, but am repulsed by his antics, I agree on the garbage personality--I enjoy looking at strippers, but I'm not going to marry for the pu**y! Same goes with Manny, his offense is great and fun to watch, but you can no more turn a Manny being Manny into a positive clubhouse guy than you can a whore into a housewife.)
So team count: 1
AL CENTRAL
Royals can't afford him.
Indians might want him, but I wouldn't bank on it for that money.
White Sox have WAY TOO MUCH offense to worry about his 'tude.
Twins can't/won't afford him, like Seattle, they are big on appearances!
Tigers have to be about tapped out financially.
Team count: 1(maybe 2)
AL EAST
Red Sox: Nope
Yankees: Don't have a place to put him with Matsui @ DH/LF, Damon DH/LF, Posada C/DH, there's too much money already clogging those spots next season.
Rays: Nope, can't/won't afford him.
Blue Jays: Maybe the only sleeper team that could bring him in, but they'd have to clear some payroll and that means moving one of their other outfielders, one of their starters, or Rolen. I think this is the most likely spot in the east for him, but only as a DH and that means 15MM/yr.
Orioles could afford him and they could use an upgrade at DH, but it would depend a lot on whether they could get a new ace, retain Guthrie in a long term deal, etc. If they don't think they can build a contender tomorrow, they won't invest in Manny.
Team count:2(maybe 3)
NL WEST
Giants had Bonds and without the obligation to support their own player, no way even Sabean makes that mistake, struggling offense or not.
Padres would never bring in Manny as they don't see themselves as a big enough payroll team to makes moves like that.
Diamondbacks with a full outfield next season and already having one spare part in Conor Jackson or Chad Tracy come next spring, there's no way he ends up in AZ.
Dodgers seem to be having money issues maybe from some reports I've read, but most likely they are feeling bloated from eatting a buffet of bad contracts, see Penny, Schmidt, Garciaparra, Jones, Pierre, Furcal, etc. Still paying $35MM next year for Schmidt to pitch at AAA and for Jones to change garbages, keep score, and collect bats after a plate appearance.
Rockies no way they make a financial commitment to Manny and trading him for Holliday makes ZERO sense for Colorado, they want prospects and they already have a handful of guys ready to take over, Ryan Spilborghs, Seth Smith, and anybody they get in return for Holliday. They want to get younger not older, they want salary relief, not economic suicide.
Team Count: 2 (maybe 3)
NL CENTRAL
Pirates: No way they do it.
Brewers: they are set in LF for the next 6-7 years plus.
Reds: Could make a play for Manny, but I don't think they like being pot committed and even at 75MM a year, their payroll is awfully small.
Cardinals: Have lots of good, young outfielders, that cost pennies on the dollar and their stats are not all that different.
Cubs: Already committed in LF and Alfonso isn't/shouldn't/can't move to RF for numerous reasons starting with arm strength and ending with comfort level.
Astros: Committed long term to Lee and Pence isn't going anywhere.
Team count: 2 (maybe 3)
NL EAST
Mets: would trade for him, but they would not commit to him long term as there are other options that appeal to them more. Plus with so many quality players at positions they already have someone playing, they can sign at other positions and trade their holdover player to fill LF.
Phillies really don't need a bat, they need more/better pitching, this isn't a good fit for numerous reasons, the biggest being they have Ryan Howard about to become a free agent and asking for Manny money, Utley is alreay committed to for 6 years, Rollins is in for a couple years. All of these contracts are expensive and I don't think Manny is a big enough improvement over Burrell to put up with his behavior issues or pay him the addition 5-6MM a season he'll get on the FA market.
Nationals have too many outfielders and while personality clearly doesn't influence their decisions, there just isn't a good fit here unless they dump a couple outfielders like Pena and Dukes in the offseason.
Marlins could never dream of affording this salary unless they are already in their new stadium... But they aren't.
Braves would never commit that kind of money as they sent Andruw Jones packing for less and Chipper Jones has never made anywhere near 20MM a season and bringing in Manny for that money would be like a slap in the face to Larry after he gave a hometown discount to his team.
Team Count: 2 (maybe 3)
So in closing... Manny's defense makes him too much of a liability to truly get a call from a NL team, and so his options would appear to be Anaheim, Toronto, and MAYBE a return to Cleveland, but I'm thinking there are two places he might end up and that's not enough for him to pass on arbitration.
Posted by: BaseballGuru | July 27, 2008 at 07:44 PM
"I believe it was in Boston where he cut off Damon's throw in short LF, less than 10 feet from where he was throwing it from, BRILLIANT MOVE!!"
Given Damon's terrible arm, that may well have made sense ;-)
"Seriously... Enough, his defense is still laughable, and we are talking for a team NOT PLAYING IN BOSTON!!"
Funny, there are a lot of players in the league who would love to have his throwing arm. Besides, he plays the least important defensive position on the field anyway.
That said, has Adrian Beltre's OBP dropped anymore?
Posted by: AA | July 27, 2008 at 07:49 PM
Has a player with a team given contract (versus an arb year contract) over $10MM ever accepted arbitration before? I thought Loretta last year was a very rare veteran to accept so I imagine Manny would be the first of his kind in that money range. In a "raise regardless" situation, Hampton could theoretically pitch 100 solid IPs from here on out (chuckle) and get a bump from his $16MM salary (assuming he's an FA after this year, I don't feel like verifying so if not, just call that a hypothetical). I'm thinking the fact that Manny's coming off a huge deal may mitigate the usual guaranteed salary increase.
Posted by: Not Joe Morgan | July 27, 2008 at 07:51 PM
Arbitration is a legal process... Arbitration as a rule is based of previous case law... They don't get into where the bar was set and how much he made... The argument is going to be 99 cases where the person made more regardless of whether they played "better", and 1% where they bring out the cases that failed to make more... Considering Manny's people are going to say these guys were injured and failedto maintain even a remote level of consistency from their previous seasons into the last one before this judgment. Meaning the arbitration panel will rule in favor of the 99%... There is no way this goes good for the team offering him arbitration... This comes from a law student who is going over this now for the third year in a row... They've spent an extreme amount of time talking about arbitration processes, so I'm not just talking out of my ass... But NJM, let's play along with this theory... Do you want to offer Manny Ramirez arb. and try to low ball him at say 17MM-18MM and him come over the top with 25MM?!?! Remember they HAVE TO PICK JUST ONE FIGURE, there is not averaging the two, it's either or, so if they gamble on them going below the 20MM and the panel says nope, then you are forced to take WHATEVER MANNY writes down on his little piece of paper... While you're at it you should send them (Manny's arb. offering team) a revolver with a bullet in it for Christmas.
Posted by: BaseballGuru | July 27, 2008 at 08:01 PM
I can't wait until the crowd's reaction when Manny steps to the plate.
Posted by: Ty | July 27, 2008 at 08:02 PM
Oh and to answer your question, yes, Clemens... He went from 13-14MM a year up to 18MM with Houston, it's actually the one arb. offering instance that has haunted GMs for the last 4 years come December.
Posted by: BaseballGuru | July 27, 2008 at 08:02 PM
"Has a player with a team given contract (versus an arb year contract) over $10MM ever accepted arbitration before? I thought Loretta last year was a very rare veteran to accept so I imagine Manny would be the first of his kind in that money range."
Greg Maddux...screwed the Braves...Remember?
And no, Mike Hampton isn't a good comparison as he's coming off injury which has already been noted to lower arbitration
Posted by: jza1218 | July 27, 2008 at 08:08 PM
Adrian Beltre (.330 OBP), how about you worry about GMJ (.311 OBP) and his atrocious numbers at 11MM, the 11.6MM you are giving to Anderson (.308 OBP), the 14.5MM you are shelling out to Vlad (.347), and my FAVORITE the 18MM to Hunter (.342 OBP) and the 11MM to Escobar (DL). My God, you have so many problems in Anaheim, you really need not be talking about Beltre... The guy is still the 2nd best 3B in the game and kills half of your "star players" in OBP. Not to meantion that beltre turns it on in August and September, so he'll easily be around .350 OBP by the end of the season, so don't you worry about Adrian, he'll just be earning his GG, getting his well deserved SS award stolen by an imposter 3B who has no buiness fielding that position in Alex Rodriguez (should be moved to RF when Abreu's deal is done or 1B after this season), sure he makes an occasional great play, but seriously he's HORRIBLE on defense, poor range, looks lost, and seems at times like he's fielding the ball with two spatulas... Too bad they don't determine positional relevance when giving out SS awards, otherwise there are people not just Beltre that would win the award based on being the best at their position offensively, not the best to stand in the geographic location while the team is playing in the field.
Posted by: BaseballGuru | July 27, 2008 at 08:13 PM
The "gamble" inherent in offering Ramirez arbitration is overblown. Between 1974 and 2006, owners came out on top in arbitration cases against player 269-199.
The Red Sox could offer the maximum 80% reduction figure of $16M. If Boras tried to "come over the top" with $25M, he'd only be hurting Ramirez's chances of success, because there is only one other player in baseball in that salary range, and Manny's production the last few years doesn't approach his.
Arbitrators consider past performance and playoff success, but they also weigh "leadership," production relative to position, games played, and statistical decline. It's highly unlikely that an impartial arbitrator would award Ramirez the second-highest salary in baseball in light of all those factors.
Posted by: DunkinDonuts | July 27, 2008 at 08:30 PM
"My God, you have so many problems in Anaheim, you really need not be talking about Beltre... The guy is still the 2nd best 3B in the game and kills half of your "star players" in OBP."
2nd best 3B in the game are you kidding?
Arod
David Wright
Evan Longoria
Aramis Ramirez
Ryan Zimmerman (I know he was hurt but he is still a rising star and cheap)
Chipper Jones
Even Troy Glaus is putting up better numbers
Beltre does play great defense but is far from the 2nd best 3B in the game.
Posted by: metsfan | July 27, 2008 at 08:33 PM
"Do you want to offer Manny Ramirez arb. and try to low ball him at say 17MM-18MM and him come over the top with 25MM?!?! Remember they HAVE TO PICK JUST ONE FIGURE, there is not averaging the two, it's either or, so if they gamble on them going below the 20MM and the panel says nope, then you are forced to take WHATEVER MANNY writes down on his little piece of paper"
I guess I'd still say yes, I'd go for it. Either you're working on a one year deal for a guy still raking or you're getting picks. The downside really isn't all that down. And I'm not arguing the legalese, more that the panel may not use all cases as historical precident and rather consider Manny a one-off case who, even at $18MM, is making far more than market value for his production.
Posted by: Not Joe Morgan | July 27, 2008 at 08:58 PM
you could add Mike Lowell to that list too.
Posted by: Kramerica Industries | July 27, 2008 at 09:44 PM
I forgot about Lowell even Edwin Encarnacion is putting up better numbers I even forgot Garret Atkins and if you still consider Miguel Cabrera a 3B.
Atkins and Encarnacion's success can partly be attributed to the ballparks they play in.
Posted by: metsfan | July 27, 2008 at 10:00 PM
Guru when are you going to stop posting. Don't you have some sort a bet about how much the M's suck.
Posted by: yankees2727 | July 27, 2008 at 11:01 PM
Guru, are you f-in kidding me?!
How much time do you have on your hands?
Do you ever leave the computer????
Give it a rest man! NoOne cares about what you hav to say.
I think this is his longest post, but a could be wrong.
"METAFRANTIC (did you see this?!)
Okay let's cover this one more time...
(Boras loves money not long term deals, just uses long term deals to hide inconsistencies with his clients. For a consistent performer like Manny he'd go year to year at this point, he's not A-Rod-Poster-Child-Type-Marketable, especially with his behavior)
RULES OF ARBITRATION
*Can't make less than 20% of previous years contract
*Unless you drastically fall off from the previous year, like Rolen has for instance or have been injured, you'll make a raise.
*Less than 5% of arbitration cases go in favor of the low bidder.
*Less than 1% of arbitration cases become a reduction.
*A supplemental first round pick is given for ANY Type A or Type B free agents, with an additional draft pick.
-- No higher than the 2nd round for a Type B
-- A 1st round for a Type A, when the signing team drafts in the 16-30 slots, and/or when there is even a 1st round pick to be signed (dependent upon whomelse that team has signed in addition to the other ranked players they've acquired through FA.)
-- Picks are then handed out in order of rankings for the players taken(highest player gets previous team the 1st or 2nd round, depending on draft slot, every other ranked FA signing goes in order 2nd or 3rd for the next highest rated signed by the same team, and so on until all teams losing Type A or Type B players have been compensated.)
NOW FOR THE ARGUMENT
You make the point he's not wanted in Boston...
A) We are talking about compensation for a trade, so clearly he won't be in Boston.
B) If he's in Boston, then it doesn't matter what draft picks the Red Sox can or can't get from offering arb.
C) Determining value is for the team receiving Manny, so they know what to give up.
D) If Manny stays in Boston than the Red Sox wouldn't decline his option anyways, no matter how pissed he is or they are, because that's the type of stuff that leads to Manny being Manny in the big Apple, AL style.
E) If Manny gets a long term deal for 4 years, look for him to get about 60-70MM Definitely no more and probably less.
F) To be a 20MM a year player you have to be in your prime, play great on both sides of the ball, be a good clubhouse/media friendly player. At 20MM/yr. you are selling your soul, not your game.
G) If Manny accepts arb., he CAN'T make LESS than $16MM, based on previous cases (in a legal system based on pre-existing case law, so it's more than a hunch or speculation), he WILL NOT make less than $22MM per year and figures to see a raise to $24MM.
H) If Manny gets even 22MM than next year you go back to the table knowing that even injured he'll get $17.6MM MINIMUM. Realistically, he again won't get less than his current salary, but figure another 10% increase, so he'll be making $24MM roughly. By year three, he'll be at $27MM. By year four, he'll make 29MM.
I) Even if he stays at $27MM by year four, then he's making EXACTLY $100MM over 4 years. Do you really think that Manny will leave $30MM over only 4 years on the table best case scenario and more like $40-45MM over that time period, realistically?! Of course not, he makes enough money that he's better off taking arbitration.
J) Arbitration benefits ONLY the player and Manny and his agent will know this, REGARDLESS of who that is.
K) If Manny is traded to another team, then compensation has to be figured.
-- Assuming he will not get his option picked up, you have to compensate for what he does for you now, a A/AA level player who has marginal to decent upside.
-- Then you compensate for money, means the Red Sox taking on a big contract, which begs the question, who would it be?!
-- Then finally you determine if there is any value in offering arbitration and what would you get?!
-- In the case of Manny he'd accept, so you'd get nothing. Clearly if he got traded to the Mets, they would either pick up his option or let him walk, there is no offering arbitration because that means he's not going back to Boston, and that'll be another team he KNOWS won't offer him a contract, meaning arb. will seem that much better.
-- Going around the league:
AL WEST
Anaheim could be a fit for Manny, but only if Anderson doesn't stay, since they have too many big contracts and too many outfielders.
Oakland would never make that investment.
Texas, doesn't need more offense, especially at DH or LF.
Seattle, would never bring Manny here, care too much about image (personally I love his bat, but am repulsed by his antics, I agree on the garbage personality--I enjoy looking at strippers, but I'm not going to marry for the pu**y! Same goes with Manny, his offense is great and fun to watch, but you can no more turn a Manny being Manny into a positive clubhouse guy than you can a whore into a housewife.)
So team count: 1
AL CENTRAL
Royals can't afford him.
Indians might want him, but I wouldn't bank on it for that money.
White Sox have WAY TOO MUCH offense to worry about his 'tude.
Twins can't/won't afford him, like Seattle, they are big on appearances!
Tigers have to be about tapped out financially.
Team count: 1(maybe 2)
AL EAST
Red Sox: Nope
Yankees: Don't have a place to put him with Matsui @ DH/LF, Damon DH/LF, Posada C/DH, there's too much money already clogging those spots next season.
Rays: Nope, can't/won't afford him.
Blue Jays: Maybe the only sleeper team that could bring him in, but they'd have to clear some payroll and that means moving one of their other outfielders, one of their starters, or Rolen. I think this is the most likely spot in the east for him, but only as a DH and that means 15MM/yr.
Orioles could afford him and they could use an upgrade at DH, but it would depend a lot on whether they could get a new ace, retain Guthrie in a long term deal, etc. If they don't think they can build a contender tomorrow, they won't invest in Manny.
Team count:2(maybe 3)
NL WEST
Giants had Bonds and without the obligation to support their own player, no way even Sabean makes that mistake, struggling offense or not.
Padres would never bring in Manny as they don't see themselves as a big enough payroll team to makes moves like that.
Diamondbacks with a full outfield next season and already having one spare part in Conor Jackson or Chad Tracy come next spring, there's no way he ends up in AZ.
Dodgers seem to be having money issues maybe from some reports I've read, but most likely they are feeling bloated from eatting a buffet of bad contracts, see Penny, Schmidt, Garciaparra, Jones, Pierre, Furcal, etc. Still paying $35MM next year for Schmidt to pitch at AAA and for Jones to change garbages, keep score, and collect bats after a plate appearance.
Rockies no way they make a financial commitment to Manny and trading him for Holliday makes ZERO sense for Colorado, they want prospects and they already have a handful of guys ready to take over, Ryan Spilborghs, Seth Smith, and anybody they get in return for Holliday. They want to get younger not older, they want salary relief, not economic suicide.
Team Count: 2 (maybe 3)
NL CENTRAL
Pirates: No way they do it.
Brewers: they are set in LF for the next 6-7 years plus.
Reds: Could make a play for Manny, but I don't think they like being pot committed and even at 75MM a year, their payroll is awfully small.
Cardinals: Have lots of good, young outfielders, that cost pennies on the dollar and their stats are not all that different.
Cubs: Already committed in LF and Alfonso isn't/shouldn't/can't move to RF for numerous reasons starting with arm strength and ending with comfort level.
Astros: Committed long term to Lee and Pence isn't going anywhere.
Team count: 2 (maybe 3)
NL EAST
Mets: would trade for him, but they would not commit to him long term as there are other options that appeal to them more. Plus with so many quality players at positions they already have someone playing, they can sign at other positions and trade their holdover player to fill LF.
Phillies really don't need a bat, they need more/better pitching, this isn't a good fit for numerous reasons, the biggest being they have Ryan Howard about to become a free agent and asking for Manny money, Utley is alreay committed to for 6 years, Rollins is in for a couple years. All of these contracts are expensive and I don't think Manny is a big enough improvement over Burrell to put up with his behavior issues or pay him the addition 5-6MM a season he'll get on the FA market.
Nationals have too many outfielders and while personality clearly doesn't influence their decisions, there just isn't a good fit here unless they dump a couple outfielders like Pena and Dukes in the offseason.
Marlins could never dream of affording this salary unless they are already in their new stadium... But they aren't.
Braves would never commit that kind of money as they sent Andruw Jones packing for less and Chipper Jones has never made anywhere near 20MM a season and bringing in Manny for that money would be like a slap in the face to Larry after he gave a hometown discount to his team.
Team Count: 2 (maybe 3)
So in closing... Manny's defense makes him too much of a liability to truly get a call from a NL team, and so his options would appear to be Anaheim, Toronto, and MAYBE a return to Cleveland, but I'm thinking there are two places he might end up and that's not enough for him to pass on arbitration."
Posted by: Sal from Tampa | July 27, 2008 at 11:19 PM
"2nd best 3B in the game are you kidding?
Arod
David Wright
Evan Longoria
Aramis Ramirez
Ryan Zimmerman (I know he was hurt but he is still a rising star and cheap)
Chipper Jones
Even Troy Glaus is putting up better numbers
Beltre does play great defense but is far from the 2nd best 3B in the game."
Wait who's first? I'm confused.
Posted by: ArodSucksAtLife | July 28, 2008 at 12:06 AM
"2nd best 3B in the game are you kidding?
Arod
David Wright
Evan Longoria
Aramis Ramirez
Ryan Zimmerman (I know he was hurt but he is still a rising star and cheap)
Chipper Jones
Even Troy Glaus is putting up better numbers
Beltre does play great defense but is far from the 2nd best 3B in the game."
Wait who's first? I'm confused.
Posted by: ArodSucksAtLife | July 28, 2008 at 12:06 AM
This guy I made up in MVP Baseball 2005.
Posted by: Meoveryouok | July 28, 2008 at 01:28 AM
In order to deal Manny, the Red Sox would have to think outside the box....WAY OUTSIDE THE BOX...
Here is a crazy idea that would help both teams now/future. Keeping in mind "help" is a relative term to be applied loosley under the given circumstances.
Sox Trade Manny Ramirez to the Dodgers for Andruw Jones/Matt Kemp.
Dodgers get a slight boost in LF this year and get to shed Jones awful contract.
Manny for Kemp straight up would be a bad deal for the Dodgers given the production difference doesn't warrant the cost difference; however tossing Jones terrible contract into the mix might make it worthwhile for the Dodgers.
Dodgers can handle Mannys salary and with 2 option years, they aren't handcuffed looking for an OF next year.
Dodgers will receive type A compensation if they opt for arbitration and Manny goes; thus they would get two draft picks to compensate for Kemp and would have shed the money owed to Jones allowing them to make a push for a top tier LF on the Free Agent market thanks to the salary relief, should Manny not take the arbitration.
THats about as outside the box as I could come up with that would actually "help" both teams.
Red Sox could then move Coco Crisp as well, as they would have Jones for defense in CF along with Ellsbury.
Posted by: baxter4218 | July 28, 2008 at 07:55 AM
If anyone acquired Jones, it certainly wouldn't be to play him.
Crisp > Jones on both sides of the ball.
Posted by: DunkinDonuts | July 28, 2008 at 08:28 AM
Agree Dunkin- Andruw Jones has no business wearing a MLB uniform at this point.
But the thing I'm thinking about is, what if they offer Manny arbitration next year and he accepts? Is that really the worst thing in the world to have Manny on a 1 yr. contract around 20 mill? It's basically like picking up his option, but if he wants to leave, we get some draft picks as compensation. I actually think this is the best way for the team to proceed. And based on what Manny is saying, it doesn't seem likely that he'd accept a 1 yr arbitration offer when he could get a 3/4 yr deal in free agency.
Posted by: Papelboner | July 28, 2008 at 08:34 AM