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Now that the second half of the season is underway, and less than two weeks before the trade deadline, the acquisitions of CC Sabathia by the Brewers, Rich Harden by the Cubs, and most recently, Joe Blanton by the Phillies (not to mention Tony Clark by the Diamondbacks and Richie Sexson by the Yankees) must have had an impact on the way teams still in the hunt are gauging their chances.
Let's run down rumors by teams five or less games behind first place and I'll attempt to sound like a baseball expert and predict the probability of some of those trades happening:
Marlins:
Arguably the team most active in trade rumors of those considered "still in it," the Fish have been mentioned in numerous trade scenarios. Most recently, they inquired on the availability of Ivan Rodriguez, but the Tigers said thanks but no thanks.
The Marlins have also been part of the Brian Fuentes trade speculation express, but they might be better served looking for a bat – thus the interest in Willy Taveras.
Sage prediction: It's in their blood; the Fish have been active during trade deadline season in the past and now that the Phillies added Blanton (not to mention, hot play by the Mets) they'll trade for a bat.
Cardinals:
The Birds are in second place behind the Cubs, but with the aforementioned trades by the other two teams out of the top three in the NL Central, it's looking like a major move is inevitable to keep up with the pace.
In fact, the Cards have been mentioned in some trade speculation but those rumors have consistently been shut down. Barry Bonds to the Cards? Nope. Jason Bay rumors debunked, only to have them flare up again tied to top Cardinals prospect Colby Rasmus...until the press talks to the team chairman and they die back down.
Sage prediction: The Cards have to make a move for a bat and for pitching. There I said it. And I'm not the only one.
Twins:
As a small-market team that always competes with what it's got, the Twins are again quiet in the trade market. There is, however, continuing speculation that they're interested in upgrading at 3B, inquiring on the availability of Adrian Beltre. Earlier this week, Charlie Walters of the St. Paul Pioneer Press put together an interesting money-saving trade scenario involving a slugging third baseman.
Sage prediction: The AL Central is up for grabs, and it sure looks like an upgrade will help the Twins down the stretch to when (not if) the Tigers catch up and if (not when) the White Sox let up.
Mets:
Call it oversight, call it my subtle bias that I think the Mets will win the NL East, but commenter D Wright 5 is dead-on for calling me out on not including the Amazin's in this list. I like his assessment:
The Mets are obviously looking to get a corner outfielder by way of trade. How come you didn't add Raul Ibanez as a possible candidate to becoming a Met? Not one word about the rumors swirling around the David DeJesus might also become another possibility for the Mets? Not a word about Brian Fuentes being another option.
Honorable mention:
Dodgers: The problem is money. They have a big payroll and would probably only trade for role players that can help off the bench. Plus, they're really being carried by the young hitters that ostensibly would be coveted by other teams. But don't discount the possibility of someone like Raul Ibañez.
Red Sox: In an interesting twist, the Sawks were mentioned in connection to Mark Teixeira... but as a possible free agent signing next year. I'm gonna go out on limb and say they'll stay pat and wait for the Rays to cool off.
Alejandro A. Leal writes for UmpBump.com. Comments? Rumors? email me: alexo05 [at] umpbump [daught] com.
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I would LOVE if the Twins made a move for Garrett Atkins and Brian Fuentes. That would be perfect.
Drop Breslow and eat the salary of Lamb to make room.
I am not sure who we could trade for them, but it would definitely be a sweet win-now move.
Posted by: joeiscool12 | July 19, 2008 at 12:47 PM
Matt Holliday please; I wouldn't mind wait till the off season.
Posted by: Meoveryouok | July 19, 2008 at 12:51 PM
The Cards will only make a minor roster move and only if their leftie relievers keep carring gas cans to the mound. Why the are holding on to some of their AAAA and AAA players is beyond me. Mather, Reyes, Anderson, Stavinoha, Freese, etc should be moved for a rental bat(Holliday) and/or a reliever.
Posted by: dep258s | July 19, 2008 at 12:55 PM
Can you tell me how the Mets aren't on this list?
They have lost Moises Alou, Angel Pagan and Trot Nixon for the year due to injuries. Not to mention the on going struggles to get Ryan Church back into right fielder due to two concussions in the same season.
The Mets don't have real starting corner outfielders in the lineup every game. Those spots are cluttered up with names such as Fernando Tatis, Endy Chavez and Marlon Anderson. Although Tatis has been tearing it up lately, he the other two players are good role players but shouldn't be in the starting lineup day in and day out.
The Mets are obviously looking to get a corner outfielder by way of trade. How come you didn't add Raul Ibanez as a possible candidate to becoming a Met? Not one word about the rumors swirling around the David DeJesus might also become another possibility for the Mets? Not a word about Brian Fuentes being another option.
The Mets should be on this list easily.
Not to mention, why is the Red Soxs on this list?
Posted by: Ty | July 19, 2008 at 12:57 PM
The Twins won't drop Breslow--have you seen how effective he's been? If they drop anyone it'd be Brian Bass.
Posted by: jesse | July 19, 2008 at 01:03 PM
I don't think the Rays will cool off, this appears to be their time, this is their team's new beginning.
As for Teixiera, it only makes sense if they intend to move Youk or Tex to left.
Posted by: start_wearing_purple | July 19, 2008 at 01:22 PM
The Rays will cool off. They're playing more games on the road in the second half, have 12 games against Bos/NYY and have been extraordinarily blessed with injury-free good pitching.
I'm not saying they'll fall off, but they're not going to win the division if NY/Bos stays healthy.
Posted by: Meoveryouok | July 19, 2008 at 01:25 PM
The Mets really don't have a ton to offer, this is clear, but still, that doesnt mean they couldn't pick up a Murton/Winn/Ibanez type of player. Especially Winn. I know a lot of people don't love him, but I like the fit. He won't cost anything that important from your system, you pay mostly in cash, and he fits LF, and also fits the number 2 hole, which is a double bonus because it gets Endy (I think I am a power hitter but I really don't have power) out of the 2 hole. As much as I love what Endy brings to the table, he is not an everyday corner OF, and he certainly certainly is not a number 2 hitter. He has no power and he does not make contact enough for the type of hitter he is. He also has gotten into a habit of trying to pull everything. Who knows when Luis will be back, so a number 2 hole hitter is nice right now. Then next year, you transition Fernando Martinez into the big club as Randy Winn Contract is expiring. No need to rush Fernando (though I am certainly not opposed to a cup of coffee.), and no need to empty out your system for a Holliday type that will just walk next year anyway.
Posted by: nrmax88 | July 19, 2008 at 01:38 PM
Tocuhé, D Wright 5, the Mets should be on the list.
Posted by: Alejandro Leal | July 19, 2008 at 01:38 PM
I love how people just assume that the Yankees will make a run and get into the playoffs just because they are the Yankees. That is all I ever hear on any sports show. Guys saying.... look at what they did last year, look at 2006... but so what? The Yankees weren't without Wang for most of the season in those years. They didnt have to rely on Rasner and Ponson in those years for an extended period of time. Not to mention the 2 plus 35's they have in Moose and Andy. They have been great, but wit Andy you almost always expect some nagging injury and Moose is getting up there and could tire out. Not to mention the completely unreliable bullpen. I know they have been good recently, but besides Mariano I don't trust any of those guys. Now they think Matsui could be out for the year? Posada has been relegated to DH duties, Jeter is having a down year, Damon is hurt, Melky stinks. There just is so much going on with the Yankees this year that was not the case in years past. And oh yeah, the Orioles and Blue Jays are both extremely competetive this year, so it will be hard to beat up on those teams, and the Rays are a young, talented team with confidence, and more importantly, great starting pitching. I don't need to bring up the Red Sox. I just do not see it happening for the Yanks this year. I hope I am wrong, because it would stink to see the last important game in Yankee Stadium be some stupid all star game, but I think it is what it is. This idea that the Yankees will somehow catch the Rays because the Rays are younger and inexperienced is laughable to me. The Rays have the infinitely better pitching staff and defense, and while they do not slug like the Bronx Bombers, they can still hit a little bit. They are simply the better team then the New York Yankees are this year.
Posted by: nrmax88 | July 19, 2008 at 01:49 PM
Woohoo! I mention in the blog!
=]
Posted by: Ty | July 19, 2008 at 02:09 PM
Atkins and Fuentes for Span mulvie and mabey someone like brian butcher or even a chris parmalee. . what do you think about the proposed Cuddiar deal? who would you rather have cuddy or span??
Posted by: Bray991 | July 19, 2008 at 03:02 PM
"The Rays will cool off. They're playing more games on the road in the second half, have 12 games against Bos/NYY and have been extraordinarily blessed with injury-free good pitching."
injury free pitching?
would your analysis change if I told you that the Rays had missed about 75 man-days from the group of Kazmir, Percival and Garza?
Posted by: wihargo | July 19, 2008 at 03:24 PM
Then next year, you transition Fernando Martinez into the big club as Randy Winn Contract is expiring. No need to rush Fernando (though I am certainly not opposed to a cup of coffee.), and no need to empty out your system for a Holliday type that will just walk next year anyway.
Fernando Martinez should be brought along slowly; the Mets always rush their prospects and it drives me nuts. He's hitting .292/.333/.421 at Binghamton, which is nice but not really a breakthrough from his .271/.336/.377 line from 2007 at the same level. I'd like to see F-Mart really crush AA pitching before the Mets bring him to the bigs.
As far as this season, the Mets really need a corner OF who:
A. Brings some SLG to the table
B. Isn't brutal in the field, since they have lots of flyball pitchers
C. Won't cost the Mets Fernando Martinez or Jon Niese
I like the Raul Ibanez option. Perhaps he could be had for some combination of the Mike Carp-Nick Evans-Daniel Murphy trio.
The Mets had a nice draft this year, adding two guys who look like real legit prospects right out of the box: Bradley Holt and Reese Havens. Young Wilmer Flores is also looking like a phenom, so all of a sudden the Mets' minor league situation isn't looking so dire.
Posted by: JK47 | July 19, 2008 at 04:47 PM
Sorry, first paragraph should have been in italics.
Posted by: JK47 | July 19, 2008 at 04:48 PM
"if (not when) the White Sox let up."
Every time I start to take this site seriously, you go and prove that you're really just a punk Cub fan.
The White Sox will let up in October, right after receiving the trophy after game 4 in the visitors clubhouse at Wrigley.
Posted by: cabiness42 | July 19, 2008 at 05:46 PM
i think the yankees habe a chnace of making the playoofs if they get a starting pitcher or an really good outfielder or both then i think the yankees will make the playoffs but if they dont make a trade then it will be very hard for them to make the plyoffs wit all the injuries
Posted by: yankeefanbriccio13 | July 19, 2008 at 06:56 PM
Andrew Cabiness,
Alejandro Leal probably isn't a Cubs fan, he said IF, NOT WHEN, the White Sox slow down. And then you go and make a completley biased statment by saying the White Sox will sweep the Cubs in the World Series. The Sox are probably the least likely team to come out of the AL. They aren't better then the Angels, Red Sox, or Rays. And the Cubs swept the Sox at Wrigley, if anything you might win a home game or 2. All of this proves that you're the biased Sox fan.
Posted by: Joe | July 19, 2008 at 06:58 PM