Offseason Outlook: Tampa Bay Rays

A FANTASTIC time to be a Rays fan!

I could see them non-tendering Gomes. That would free up 1.25 million. In my opinion Nieman will be traded. He could draw a huge amount of interst from teams.That would clear up another 1 mill. If Nieman is not traded then Jackson would be moved. He's a goof sell high canidate. He walks too many hitters and his numbers were kind of an aberition. Willingham would be solid but I think he'll stay in florida. I know he's left handed but Hermida would be a solid guy.

Micheal Cuddyer for Willy Aybar........ anybody have thoughts on that

Trading Jackson would make a lot of sense for the Rays. For the Royals and Cardinals that would be stupid.

What about Jackson for Corey Hart

imagine the rays signing manny...that would be a sight to behold

Have a funny feeling that the Rays are gonna com back to earth next year. Like, c'mon. I cant see Balfour of Trever miller have as good of years as they had this year. Erick hinske hit 20 HRS! Thats crazy! Sonnastine and Jackson could be question marks. I like the Rays but its going to take more than one year of overachieving to convince me. The Rays should of won the World Series (even though I picked the Phillies and got 50 bucks off them). Phillies hitting was horendous. In that series and playoffs I thought we saw the real Rays bullpen. They didnt do a good job.

I kno people are gonna start calling me some ignorant Yankee fan but whatever. I like the Rays, dont get me wrong, Id rather lose to them than the Sox, but c'mon. all the best to them, they deserve alot of credit.

Sign Burrell to DH, pick up some bullpen help in the form of Fuentes and Affeldt, win the 2009 WS. 'Nuff said.

What about trading Sonnanstine instead of Jackson? Jackson has the higher ceiling, plus could one day become a nice closer. Rays still have other top pitching arms other than Price in their system too.

What about a Choo/Franciso for Sonnanstine type deal with Cleveland? Tribe could throw in Jeff Stevens as well to help the Rays pen. Either Choo or Francisco could fill in RF nicely. Choo is better but Francisco is right-handed.

"the philly & tampa ray fanbase is not as large as typical world series contenders =/"

That's quite the understatement, aren't they the team that drew only 600 people to one of their games.

i was trying to be nice but yes you are right

Corey Hart and Angel Salome to the Rays for Jackson and Crawford.

Hart is a right handed version of Crawford. Crawford and Hart had nearly identical stats both advanced stats and regular stats. Angel Salome is a catching prospect who should really be a DH. He could be playing for the Brewers next year but his defense at catcher is not anywhere near where it should be for him to be a starting catcher. He is also right handed.

The Rays also get a younger and cheaper version of Crawford with Hart.

This would be about an even trade as possible between the two teams.

What about a swap of Jermaine Dye for Carl Crawford? Would this at least be a feasible foundation for a trade? Just seems like Crawford and Dye are exactly what the other team happens to be looking for.

Rays expert, if you will, stepping in...

I have already started doing my version of "Offseason Outlook" on the ESPN board (dont sue me tim!). Here is my 2 cents.

C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, LF, and CF are all locks for next year. The only big question marks are RF and DH. Right now the Rays have Cliff Floyd with a 2.75MM option, but Floyd already said that if he has to have offseason surgery, he will retire. At this point, you cant count on him, and have to move forward. They also have Baldelli, who played part time because of a mitochontrial disease, who is eligible for free agency, but I really do think he will come back on an incentive laden deal, with a base between 1-2MM. Again, cant count on him to be a full timer.

The only two interal options that have a shot at playing every day are Perez and Aybar. Perez, the minor league player of the year for the Rays, still has some things to work on, and could probably use some more seasoning. Aybar, who worked in the outfield towards the end of the season, could be an option for DH or RF (conceivably). Gabe Gross will only be back as a last resort, same with Gomes. Very very unlikely Friedman sees either of them being a big contributer in 09.

That being said, I see the Rays looking to acquire a right handed hitting RF or DH this offseason, with Edwin Jackson being the best trading chip. Getting someone young, like a Butler or Francisco, who is under team control and cost effective, makes a lot of sense. Plus with Jackson set to make 2+ mil through arbitration, the Rays will try and trade him over Sonnanstine.

What you will not see the Rays do is go after any type-A free agents such as Bradley, Burrell or Ibanez. This is a team that needs their first round picks, and with their pick next year not being protected, I seriously doubt they will even consider any type-A's.

Troy Percival is also a question mark for next year. He was not with the rays team during the postseason and its not known whether he will be physically able to pitch next season. Again, they might need to move forward and find a replacement. Whether than means making Balfour the closer and finding another middle reliever, or just finding a new closer, im not sure. Either way, i cant see them getting into the Fuentes/K-Rod bidding. Trading for a set up man could also be an option, with Heath Bell being a possible target.

Jeff Niemann, if not traded, looks to be first in line to be the long reliever in 09. He looked solid out of the pen this season for the rays, with his fastball touching 98.

As for how much money they can spend this offseason, that is still unknown. Owner Sternberg said last year that they will at least increase payroll 20% annually, which would put the base payroll at 53 million next year. I have heard reports that 60MM+ is most likely.

The top two priorities this offseason will be to acquire a right handed hitting RF/DH type and a setup man/closer. Everything else seems set.

"What about Jackson for Corey Hart"

I like that one a lot. Even if the rays do have to throw in another player.

"Corey Hart and Angel Salome to the Rays for Jackson and Crawford."

That would just create another hole for the rays. The whole point is they need an outfielder, meaning they dont have one to give up, especially an everyday player.

Bulter or Hart would be reasonable to me. Jackson would fit well in a lot of team's plans.

I personally would love to see Atlanta get him as a back of the rotation guy.

I would love for the rays to consider an edwin jackson for Francouer possibility, but I feel the rays could get a lot more value out of jackson than frenchy.

Jackson will never become the Rays closer because he takes WAY too much time to warm up in the bullpen. If you have ever seen him before a start, he begins his pregame warmups about 90 minutes before the first pitch to start getting ready. With the current personnal, Balfour would be best suited for closer. They HAVE to shop around this off season to see who's available.

"What you will not see the Rays do is go after any type-A free agents such as Bradley, Burrell or Ibanez. This is a team that needs their first round picks, and with their pick next year not being protected, I seriously doubt they will even consider any type-A's."

You have taken words out of my mouth. Eventually, I could see it happening, but unless the Rays have an absolute need that cannot be filled either internally or through other routes, the draft picks must be kept. An approach on drafting and developing internally is critical. Investing in international scouting (which the Rays already do) is also huge. You bring up a few other good points as well.

RF/DH:

I would call Detroit and see what they want for Magglio. I've warmed up to the idea, but if I can get him at a reasonable cost (both in terms of prospects and salary), I pull the trigger. Huge draw, great player, bonafide slugger, etc.

Or, let Perez, Gross, and Rocco (who I really think is getting resigned), share the spot and target the lefty DH. I don't see any major fits here. I non-tender Gomes, and sign him to a minor league deal.

Avoid one-year rentals like Matt Holliday; if you're giving up big time prospects, you damn better get more than one year of production. Just because the Rays have a nice farm system doesn't mean they need to trade it away for rentals; farm health is critical to success.

Bullpen:

Friedman's strategy works. Low key, small time guys. Try a bunch of guys, see who sticks as new additions to the pen, bring up Niemann, etc. If Jackson is still on the team, he can work out of the pen. There is zero need to go after a Fuentes/K-Rod type, neither will Friedman do such a thing.

I'm talking to Navarro and Garza about extensions. I'd rather not these guys go into arbitration.

How about bring Baldelli for less money? The Rays need a true closer because I heard that Troy Percival might retire. Brian Fuentes is available if not they should get Chad Cordero from the Nationals. He is cheaper and he is only 27 years old. Even though he is a free agent and he was injured, he has another 10 years ahead of him. Get Jeremy Affeldt and get rid off Trever Miller. Trade Edwin Jackson for RF like Magglio Ordonez,Jermaine Dye,Jeff Franceour,or Ryan Ludwick. Release Jonny Gomes and Gabe Gross. Gabe Gross is not a everyday player.ALso, they can trade Niemann for left handed hitting DH/reliever.

I like the idea of Heath Bell to the Rays for a bullpen option, but I have to believe he wouldn't do so well in American League. And the Padres see him as their future closer (between him and Adams, so i have no idea what the Padres would ask for him.

As for the Rays being players in the free agent market, they will continue the recent trend of no major signings i would believe. And Dye/Maggs would be expensive both in terms of salary and prospects. Look for a more lower level deal or minor league signing (think Carlos Pena).

"I will definately admit, a deal for Jermaine Dye makes a ton of sense for the Rays. The White sox need pitching, he is not that expensive, and he would definately provide veteran leadership and consistiency."

I don't see the White Sox trading Jermaine Dye. Their farm system isn't deep, and the best time for them to have some great playoff runs is now, before the core ages further.

JD is on the block. Someone has to go and he has more trade value than Konerko and Thome. They can move Quentin to RF play Swisher in left Anderson in center. I'd like to see him go to LAA for Figgins but a good young starter like Jackson would work too.

For all those hating on the Rays saying they will finish 3rd or 4th...get a clue. The Rays have one of the best outlooks for the coming season. They only have to replace Baldelli, Floyd and Hinske in the offense. While Hinske had a good year the offensive impact from the other two was negligible. Longoria and Upton are only gonna continue to get better. They have the best rotation in baseball and should only expect it to be better. As all their pitchers are on the upside of their career and David Price can be one of the best in the game. Their bullpen should remain strong and they have a number of young arms that can always help in either the rotation or pen. They also posess one of the best systems in baseball with enough depth that they could trade Jackson, Niemann and Brignac and not miss a beat.

They Yankees especially are hurting next year. Even if they sign CC and Tex they will still have to add 2 more starters, will have a big hole in CF and need to deal with the expected decline of Posada, Jeter, Matsui,and Damon. They also have to hope that Cano has a big bounce back year and Joba and Hughes can both stay healthy enough to be full time contributors.

The Sox are in better shape, prob need a bullpen arm but should be able to fill out their rotation with Buchholtz or Bowden. Wake will still decline but he is so cheap that its not as big of a deal. They do have a big hole at Catcher and have a question with Lowell's health. Big Papi could be on the decline but even still they still ahve the youth that is projected to continue to improve, guys like Pedroia, Ellsbury and Lowrie still have some room to grow.

I meant Ludwick was a MVP contender this season, so his value is high. I'm not big on that guy as well.

My point is that I just don't know what people see in Jackson. Like I didn't see what people saw in Daniel Cabrera, who also had a lot of trade talks...

"i think jd has a no trade clause"

JD does NOT have a NTC. He had a NTC for the '08 season. He is now fair game.

"Griffey doesnt seem like a player Rays would go after. Couldnt handle the turf and would have to be a full time DH, which he would below average offensively."

Where did you get that idea? His OBP is still healthy and he was in a pretty bad lineup in Cincy, along with being banged up. There is no real reason to think he can't put up a .820 OPS anymore. That, and they need a Left-Handed hitter who can play RF, which is exactly what KGJ is.

Oh, and it doesn't hurt to have a living legend there to sell seats.

I would really like Hart. He and Butler are at the top of my list. Hart seems to make more sense, because Mil needs pitching more. KC doesnt seem too starved for SP.

Hart for Jackson actually makes a lot of sense in a few ways. First off, both were average at their position. Secondly, both are in the same contractual position, first year of arbitration in 09. Lastly, both have untapped potential. Either team could be a big winner in this deal, or it could work out great for both teams.

"Where did you get that idea? His OBP is still healthy and he was in a pretty bad lineup in Cincy, along with being banged up. There is no real reason to think he can't put up a .820 OPS anymore. That, and they need a Left-Handed hitter who can play RF, which is exactly what KGJ is."

If the Rays want a platoon DH/RF, they can get one for cheaper than Griff's price tag. I don't see Griff signing for under 5-6MM/yr. IMO, a huge waste. The Rays need a LH DH they can platoon with Aybar to continue getting adequate production from DH.

Although..the Rays hit righties pretty decently. Their main focus should be a RH bat to mash the lefties, and play RF.

Watching the rays everyday, I really saw Jackson develop into someone who pitches, rather than throws. Dont forget that this kid used to be an outfielder in the Dodgers system before being converted to a pitcher, and still made it to the majors by 20. He finally started throwing his change up more often this year and it looked pretty darn good. Also, he started throwing a bit of a slurve to compliment his electric 90 mph slider. While his strike outs went down this year, it was because he was pitching more to contact than in the past. I also saw him take a few mph off his fatsball early in the count to get better location and more movement. He started to struggled towards the end of the season, but in the first half he was great.

all depends on money and years. Rays typically arent willing to sign a player multiple years who has a history of injuries (they have burned by FA injuries too much in the past). I would think 2 year max. But since he is type B, he will likely get more interest and even though the rays have money to spend, its unlikely they would to compete for what he might get on the open market. That being said, I would love for the Rays to get him, but financially, not too optimistic. Plus Freidmans strengths are trades and bargain FA signings. New ownership and Friedman has yet to sign a big FA, so I dont know if its part of their philo. With mutliple expendable trade chips, I see them exhausting the trade market first. Jackson alone, should bring in a good RF/DH option.

"Plus Freidmans strengths are trades and bargain FA signings. New ownership and Friedman has yet to sign a big FA, so I dont know if its part of their philo"

It's way too early to tell. When your team isn't at the brink of competing, you really shouldn't go out and sign high-tier FAs. The Rays established themselves as a contender, regardless of what additions they make this offseason. Now is when you spend on the shiny FA to push you over the top. You don't build around free agents, you build around a young core. What Friedman does THIS offseason will truly illustrate his philosophy. If I had to guess, I'd say most top prospects stay put and nobody is given more than a 3 year contract (unless its extending a young core player). And, no big reliever signings.

High dollars, low years for Bradley. I'm seeing something like 2/25 with options for him.

here is my enhanced version...

C - Dioner Navarro - $413K+
C - Shawn Riggans - $400K
1B - Carlos Pena - $8MM
2B - Akinori Iwamura - $3.25MM
SS - Jason Bartlett - $417K+
3B - Evan Longoria - $550K
IF - Willy Aybar - $402K
IF - Ben Zobrist - $400K
LF - Carl Crawford - $8.25MM
CF - B.J. Upton - $413K
RF -
OF - Fernando Perez - $400K
OF - Gabe Gross - $414K+
DH -

SP - Scott Kazmir - $6MM
SP - James Shields - $1.5MM
SP - Matt Garza - $405K
SP - Andy Sonnanstine - $400K
SP - Edwin Jackson - $413K+
SP - David Price - $750K

RP - Troy Percival - $4MM (club option)
RP - Chad Bradford - $3.5MM
RP - Dan Wheeler - $3.2MM
RP - Trever Miller - $2MM (club option)
RP - Grant Balfour - $500K+
RP - J.P. Howell - $400K
RP - Jeff Niemann - $400K

Other commitments: Cliff Floyd - $250K, Jonny Gomes - $1.275MM+

That's about $47MM committed, plus arbitration raises to Navarro, Bartlett, Gross, Gomes, Balfour, and Jackson. Payroll could approach $55MM to bring this group back. I'm not sure how high the Rays can go, but they started the year at $43.7MM.

The Rays have to make tough decisions on a few club options, including Cliff Floyd, Troy Percival and Trevor Miller. Floyd, who tore his labrum in the ALCS, said that if surgery is required, he will retire. Percival, likewise, had a plethora of injuries this past season and it is unknown whether he intends on pitching again. The option on Miller should be a no-brainer, as 2MM is considered a bargain for a dependable veteran reliever. The Rays also have two arbitration eligible players in Gabe Gross and Jonny Gomes that they are might non-tender, and if so, resign to a minor league contract.

The Rays had a middling offense in 2008, but still reached the World Series. They didn't hit lefties very well, so it makes sense to acquire a righthanded hitting slugger for right field or DH. Corey Hart, Magglio Ordonez, Josh Willingham, Billy Butler and Casey Blake could fit the bill. Milton Bradley too, if the Rays want to go there. Matt Holliday is technically available. The Rays could, of course, expand their search to include lefthanded hitters. More than likely the Rays will exhaust the trade market as they do not have a lot of money to spend.

The Rays also have some internal options to take a look at, namely Willy Aybar and Fernando Perez. Aybar filled in very well for Longoria while he was injured, hitting .296 with 5 HR as the everyday third baseman. Perez was the Rays minor league player of the year and added a spark to the offense in September. While Perez had a solid year at Durham, the Rays may feel he needs more seasoning or is best suited as a 4th outfielder. Aybar, who primarily DH'ed during the season, started working with Dave Martinez in the outfield, and could be considered an option for RF or DH next season.

Leaving for free agency this offseason are Eric Hinske and Rocco Baldelli. While Hinske is likely to walk, the Rays will exhaust their efforts to resign Baldelli, likely on an incentive-based contract. While it is still unknown how much Baldelli will be able to contribute next season, he was an invaluable member of the Rays and inspiration to the players and fans.

The bullpen could be tweaked, but a major signing is probably unnecessary. Percival is a question mark for next season, which means they could find a closer internally (Wheeler or Balfour) or search outside of the organization. While they are unlikely to put in a bid on top FA closers like Fuentes or K-Rod, there are more pitchers available on the trade market, which suites the Rays better anyways.

The Rays are one of the few teams in baseball who can boast of a legitimate starting pitching surplus. When Jackson and Wade Davis can't crack your rotation, you're in good shape. Trading the arb-eligible Jackson could make sense this winter. More than likely, in trading Jackson, the Rays will try and find a RF/DH for next season.

It's a great time to be a Rays fan - they have a young, affordable, contending club. Andrew Friedman only needs to tinker this winter.

there are three players i think the rays should consider bringing in to make a massive difference. first is ken griffey jr. not only for experience but between him and rocko baldalli they could take over right field and the dh. next would be greg maddox. lets face it every team he joins the team era drops. and last would would be hoffman. i know he is not what he used to be but between him and maddox they could give the pitching staff some much needed experience. and just for reference i am not a "bandwagon" fan i have been rooting for the devil rays since the neon uniforms and the mid-90's. and i unlike most people actually picked them to win the wild card. nobody may believe it.