Heyman's Latest: Lowe, Teixeira, Guillen

Similarily, I "quietly shopping" some Enron Stock. Anyone interested? I think I have a much a likely hood of selling that as the Royals do of trading Guillen.

couldnt you totally see minaya making a run at varitek using the trusty "veteran prescence, clubhouse leader, work with he pitching staff" excuse?

who the hell would want jose guillen?

ruben don't fall in love with guillen............................please

As a Reds fan...part of me thinks the Reds should go after Guillen, part of me doesnt.

On one Hand, his offensive numbers and arm would help the team, but im not sure his salary or attitude would.

What would the Reds have to give up? Maybe this trade could expand to include Grenkie, Bannister, or maybe Crisp...

I could see Minaya going for Guillen. Maybe he can get him on the cheap.

I really like the idea of Jacobs-Guillen in the order together. It's a shame Guillen can't get along with anyone.

And I'm tired of the media talking about his 'below average' defense. The guy was injured the entire season and couldn't cover as much ground.

"especially since the D'Backs are one of the teams that still likes Aaron Heilman and sees him as a starter."

Wes Gardner reborn.. Proceed with caution when it comes to trading for NY pitchers, very rarely does a good one come along, usually hype. Seaver/Kooz types a rare.

MEddler,

I'm pretty sure some team in need of catching will give up something more valuable than a 30 year old pitcher coming off a terrible season with no history of success as a starter, and only 2 years of team control left. I can't see Heilman being nearly enough to land Montero.

LOL if you think 8/160 is gonna pull teixiera, the angels got somethin else comin. I'd suggest if they even want to consider holding onto him they do 8/200 or 7/175 something like that. 20MM a year will not pull Teix.

Teix contract:
2009: 23MM
2010: 23MM
2011: 23.5MM
2012: 23.5MM
2013: 24MM
2014: 24MM
2015: 25MM
2016 (club option) 25MM
2017(club option) 25MM

I think that is the contract that will get the job done.

Thats 166MM guaranteed money with 2 options for another 50MM. That is the price that will seal the deal for a player of Teix (or holliday next year) caliber.

Arod set the bar high. all great players will follow in suit, hopefully not in the same arrogant way that arod did with scott boras.

Anything over 5/100 for Tex will prove to be regrettable. If Tex turns down a 8/160 offer then screw him, look elsewhere.

"maybe i don't remember lugo's play. but...i don't think they should trade him, especially for someone as bad as willis. and if they do keep lugo, and he starts, and he makes 15 errors in the month of april, and bats .170"

Just remember the 1 Toronto game early in the season onward inwhich Lugo made *3* errors to cost a game, then another in Tampa late that led to a loss, then another vs baltimore in August(?) late in the game that led to a loss is enough for me to say "C'ya" to Lugo for any kind of chance that Willis can be forged back into what he was with Florida with John Farrell's help.

If that's the price for Tex then I don't see who is going to pay it. 8/160 is already way too much. 7/165 is just flat out absurd.

Tex is a very good 1st baseman but he isn't all that. If you can do Dunn at 4/60 why would anyone give Tex 7/165?

"Tex is a very good 1st baseman but he isn't all that. If you can do Dunn at 4/60 why would anyone give Tex 7/165?"

Because Teix can bat .320 and dunn bats .250?

""doesn't every other person suggest the mariners are going to salary dump? why acquire teix? lol""

Salary dump the terrible contracts... Even though the ownership says we won't spend money, and I'm virtually all for that, I would love to sign Teixeira..but it won't happen..

i didnt have to sign back up for typepad.... but i have to sign in each time... it doesn't remember me and it's overriding firefox...

while seeing lugo start at short wouldn't be my "first" choice, i think lowrie is better suited as a back up. cora is gone, and lowrie can play 2b, ss and 3rd.

i'm suprised there hasn't been more furcal to boston talk.

and just say "no to lowe".

"hey farrell brought beckett back around. but dontrelle doesn't have the kind of control that beckett does."

i wouldnt say he turned him around, he was already pitching pretty great when he was traded. he was finally able to keep the blisters off his hands.

how about a Lugo for Guillen trade? Sox need a more offensive minded fourth OF (and a clubhouse nutcase to fill the void left by Manny). The Royals need to get rid of Guillen...

But if that was a possibility then why didn't they just do that when they pulled the trigger on Crisp...

And that is me playing my own devil's advocate.

""Tex is a very good 1st baseman but he isn't all that. If you can do Dunn at 4/60 why would anyone give Tex 7/165?"

Because Teix can bat .320 and dunn bats .250?"

So, despite being pretty similar players production wise, Tex will earn an extra 3 years and an extra 110 million dollars because he is better then Dunn in the most meaningless offensive statistic (or one of them) there is? 5/100 would even be overpaying Tex imo. He is a first baseman. He is a good one, but mashing 1B are too easy to find to pay a guy who may or may not be a top 5 1B 20 mil a year over 8 years. I know Tex is the best one available, but doesn't the fact that there are productive 1B on pretty much every team in the league show that spending 20 mil a year on one is just lazy and stupid?

Meddler... Awesome post. Bravo. I have been trying for months to explain Heilman, and trying to tell people that he throws more then just 2 pitches. Great job.

nrmax88,

Teixeira is far move valuable than Dunn for a number of reasons. The first reason is that he's just a better all around hitter. In each of the past 4 seasons Teixeira has posted the better OBP, SLG, and OPS+. Tex is also a switch hitter who rakes from both sides of plate (LH: .281/.371/.541; RH: .309/.393/.541), while Dunn has serious problems when facing lefties. Throw in the fact that Teixeira plays a minimum of near GG quality defense at 1B, while Dunn is a below average to terrible LF that might have to move to DH, and the difference becomes even more pronounced. Teixeira also just seems like the better bet to see his skills age well, at least in my opinion.

And seriously, Tex MAY be on of the top 5 1B in baseball? Last season he ranked 3rd among 1B in OBP (23 pts better than Pena in 5th), 4th in SLB (9 pts ahead of Howard in 5th), and the 3rd best OPS (75 pts ahead of Cabrera in 5th). I'd say Pujols was clearly better offensively, while Berkman was marginally better and Youkilis was comparable. No one else was even close. That's only talking about offense, not even including the massive advantage Tex has in the field over other slugging 1B like Howard and Fielder.

I really don't understand the Lugo for Willis move for the Tigers. Willis's value is at an all-time low and Lugo is nothing special at the shortstop position. Willis could come back and be a force in that rotation for the Tigers. I suppose this is how the Red Sox have become a perrenial power in MLB.

The RS are interested in Lowe (and Burnett) for 2 reasons.

1 = Innings, Matsuzaka is a 5 inning pitcher, Beckett health, Wakefield health, and they have 3 kids for a 5th starter spot, all of which would be innings controlled. A stable 200 inning pitcher like Lowe would be an asset.

2 = it enables the RS to trade Bowden/ Masterson and some other minor leaguers or whatever, for Saltalamacchia or Teagarden

If Lowe wants 4-5 years, i would use Masterson or Buchholz and live with it.

"Does this somehow change the fact that he was a detriment on defense?"

I guess you'd have to live here and go to the games to understand. It was made clear fairly early in the season that Guillen was dealing with a leg problem and he was told not to exacerbate it by over-doing it in the field or on the basepaths.

Despite that every media report I read - including here locally - talk about his below-average defense. I believe when healthy he would be at least an average defender. I don't mind if the media reports that he was a defensive liability due to playing through an injury...but you never see that.

The Orioles in the last couple years have turned the corner under MacPhail and has been making the low risk/high reward, strong trades, talent-stock-piling, and strong draft moves. It looks like the Mariners are turning into the way the Orioles used to be seen.

Rangers starters Vicente "Padilla and Kevin Millwood are drawing interest from the Braves, Dodgers, and Mets. Padilla is owed $12MM in 2009 with a 2010 option for the same ($1.75MM buyout). Millwood gets $23MM over the next two seasons and has a limited no-trade clause".

Javy Vazquez is also signed for 2/$23 mil so it's safe to say he's drawing interest from these same teams. I would definitely take Javy over Millwood or Padilla. Javy for Kelly Johnson would work.

I think the Phillies could be real players for A.J. Burnett. They might come out of nowhere and suprise some people.

So what does being overpaid have to do with not Tex being better than Cabrera which he is, and the rest of that list 2-7 philsWchamps wrote also. How Loney could even be mentioned as anywhere near his equal is mind boggling.

Have a feeling that the tex detractors come from fans of teams mainly that either A: teams that cannot afford him this off season, or B: Have 1st baseman already signed that they cannot unload due to old age (several NL teams) without eating most of the contract.

"MEddler,

I'm not questioning Heilman's ability to transition to starter or his whether he will improve on his numbers from last year (I'm almost certain he will). What I'm questioning is the Mets ability to attain an attractive young player at a premium position who is under team control for 4 more seasons in return for only 2 seasons of a 30 year old reliever who may be able to transition to starting and is coming off a career worst season. There are a bunch of teams who'd be interested in Montero if he's available and I'm convinced at least one of them would be willing to offer something more valuable than Aaron Heilman straight up."

Again, I'm not so sure that's how the market is breaking. Sure there aren't a ton of catchers out there on the trade or FA market, but there also aren't a ton of teams looking to take a chance on a young catcher. Most teams with need seem to prefer either going the veteran route with a battle tested catcher who's proven his worth as a receiver or targeting one of the Texas quartet. Montero's a nice looking player, but he's no stud by any means.

The situation with the Red Sox is a good example of how the market is breaking. The Sox are brimming with tempting, near ready or MLB ready prospects. But the Sox don't want to give even one up for Montero. And they're right, a big time young player probably IS too much to pay for Montero. So the D'Backs could either target lesser prospects, or less favorable MLB players. If they choose the latter route, Heilman could be among the most appealing offers they get. Having Heilman in any capacity certainly helps your team more than having Montero as your #2 catcher.

I will say though, the fact that Montero hasn't even reached arb yet does matter, and probably means it would require the Mets include another player, but no one of particular significance, just whatever lower level prospect the D'Backs happen to like. Josh Thole maybe? Another lefty hitting catcher with some offensive upside. He's a recent convert so his defense is still developing, but he's a decent prospect and could give the D'Backs some options with Snyder once he starts cashing bigger paydays in arb.

The Braves interest in Padilla and Millwood is intriguing. The Braves have plenty of young players and bullpen help that would be appealing to the Rangers while Padilla who is incedibly appealing to me for Atl is available. I could certainly see them expanding this deal. Maybe go after Gabbard, McCarthy, Byrd or even Hamilton/Murphy. The Braves have the pieces, it's the question of if they are willing to part with them in my opinion.

IT's not that I don't like Tex, I just think he is slightly overrated. That, and I wouldn't pay any first baseman 20 million a year, let alone 20 million a year over 6-8 years, unless his name is Albert Pujols. There may not be guys around the league that can offer you the full package of what Tex can offer you, but there are plenty of good to great offensive players out there capable of playing 1B. They are all over, and I understand that they are not all available, but just the fact that so many teams have good production coming out of 1B makes it seem like an easy place to find a solid bat. Maybe not a .280/.380/.500 bat like Tex with top notch defense, but I would take a .260/.350/.475 from Delgado for 12 million over one year before I pay Tex anywhere in the stratosphere of what he is asking for.

I'd love to hear the case for Loney over Tex.

Part of my argument is going to be based upon players salaries which to me you have to factor in. paying someone 2 million and someone 25 million to do very equivalent work you can’t not take the 2 million guy and then spend the rest elsewhere. If you don’t like it, I don’t care.

1-Pujols we all agree on. No doubt. Best position player in MLB

2-Morneau. MVP on his resume. Over the next 5 years the Twins will pay Justin $66.6 million while Teix’s new team will pay him $100M to $125M. Virtually the same age (Morneau’s a year younger). Both batted right around .300. Teix had more HR’s but Morneau had more RBI’s. Overall stats are very similar with Teix a hair above him in most, but with the $40-$50M difference wouldn’t you rather add say a Derek Lowe?

3-Adrian Gonzalez—Over the next 3 years Gonzalez will be paid $13.25 while Teix $50-$75 million. While Teix hit for a better average (although not so different if you factor just the NL), Adrian had more HR’s slightly and Teix more RBI’s slightly and the same runs scored. Teix had him in OBP and slugging but not overly pronounced. Again I’d rather have a $10M pitcher and Gonzalez than Teix alone.

4-Cabrera—yes Cabrera had an off year and he is now paid close to what Teix will get. Oh and his OFF year was equivalent to Tex’s year in many stats. Miguel is 3 years younger too. Again not sure who I’d take oh wait, I forgot that Miguel helped his team to win a World Series. And did very well in the LCS in 2003 while struggling a bit in the WS all at the age of 21. To me this one could go either way and was the most difficult argument of the main 7 to make.

5-Howard—admittedly this one is personal. Howard gets bashed ad-nauseum for his strikeouts, but yet he puts up production numbers comparable only to Ruth and maybe a few others, but NO ONE in this era on a consistent basis, including AROD. Yes go ahead and blame it on the park, but in his earliest years he hit as many HR’s on the road as he does in CBP. Also he is extremely clutch. He has 3-4 months where he has carried the Phils with 10+HR and 30+RBI months. And at $15 million (assumed arbitration number) he is a bargain compared to Tex. He had just over 150 hits and 146 RBI’s last year, how do you do that???

6-Youklis—This year at 3 million he’s ridiculously a bargain compared to Tex. He’s going into his 4th year so he’s got what 2 more years left of arbitration??? While Youk was strong the last year or two this year he broke out with stats comparable to Tex except for average. His OBP, SLG and OPS were all comparable as well as his power numbers. He’s also proven himself to be very clutch having a solid postseason this year and a much better one in the Sox 2007 WS campaign. No questions here.

7-Berkman—Many considered Berkman for MVP and I think he even got some strong consideration. (No one considered Tex for that irregardless of switching leagues). Berkman is due $44M over the next 3 years. During that same time Tex will have $60-75 million. Berkman is admittedly a couple years older otherwise this would be an easier case to make. Berkman was slightly better in avg, OBP, SLB and OPS in the current year and has been the best position player on his team for several years. He also lost Carlos Lee earlier this year to injury otherwise his numbers would have easily surpassed Tex and he could have challenged Pujols for MVP. He also had an average year in 07 but in 06 had a year that was amazing and challenged Howard for MVP.

The also rans (Pena, Loney and Fielder) are admittedly difficult to make but cases but Loney has amazing potential, Fielder has hit 50+ home runs and Pena was amazingly clutch all year for the Rays.

Also part of my problem with paying Tex $20-25 million per year is that he is DESTROYING the 1B market with this. How much will Howard ask from the Phils in a couple years? So ya I’ve got my reasons for this. Was there any doubt???

philsWSchamps,

Its completely irrelevant to compare what Tex will earn to guys who aren't currently available on the FA market or in trades. The teams that have those players aren't interested in Tex anyway, nor are they interested in trading away their guys. And almost every guy you mentioned is underpaid exactly because they have yet to hit FA. Of course if no one is bidding on their services they are going to earn less.

Seriously, why does it matter if Justin Morneau is earning 40-60 million less over the next 5 years? Obviously the Twins would prefer Morneau to Tex, but no other team has that option. No team has an option of getting Morneau and a good pitcher or Tex, so the fact that you could get both for the same price as Tex is irrelevant.

Now, just to go through the guys you named quickly...

2. Morneau's stats aren't even close to similar to Tex's. Even in his MVP season he put up a line of .321/.375/.559 for an OPS+ of 140, which pales in comparison to Teixeira who has posted significantly better OBPs than that each of the past two seasons, while posting similar SLG numbers. Tex's OPS+ those two seasons were 150 and 151 respectively. Tex is also an elite defensive 1B while Morneau is not.

3. Tex didn't have an overly pronounced advantage in OBP and SLG? Since when is a 49 point advantage in OBP and 42 point advantage in SLG not considered pretty pronounced. That's an advantage of over 90 points in OPS. Some of that is due to Petco, but even OPS+ has Gonzalez down 25 points in 2007 and 13 points in 2008.

4. Cabrera has struggled with weight problems and just had a huge drop off in numbers. His numbers his first 4 years or whatever were more impressive than Tex's but I have some questions about him now. I'd also Tex defense over his in a heartbeat. This one might be close though.

5. Howard doesn't only get bashed for his strikeouts. He also gets legitimately bashed for his piss poor OBP last season and the fact that lefties dominate him. Because lefties dominate him, Howard was basically worthless in close and late situations (.158/.306/.337) because opposing teams could just bring in a lefty. His offensive rate numbers have been an obvious step below Tex's the past two seasons (6 points lower in OPS+ in 2007 and 27 points lower in 2008) and he isn't in the same league defensively.

6. Youk had similar offensive numbers last season (though Fenway played a definite role in that), but he doesn't have nearly the track record and according to the fielding bible and Dewan's numbers Teixeira is significantly better defensively.

7. Berkman is slightly better offensively, while Tex is slightly better defensively. Toss up in my mind.

As for Tex not being "clutch" in the postseason, well he batted .467 and OBPed .550, so yeah that's ridiculous. Just because he didn't get any XBHs in 4 games you're going to act like he choked or something?

Oh and in close and late situations he posted a line of .352/.458/.716, but I guess he's still not nearly as "clutch" as Howard and his .158/.306/.337.

nixa37,

tex's numbers in atlanta and LA were dramatically different avg, obp and slg wise. Any idea why? my theory, because he had much more protection in the lineup in LA.

I understand the rules of the game. I was simply stating that who would i rather have my team have Tex for 8 years at 20-25M per or any of the above and i gave my, OPINION. Tex was league average for Atlanta and his great stats in LA made up for it in half the time.

Oh and I don't give a crap what you're average is in the playoffs. When you have one RBI, you're not clutch to me, but again i had said it was a small sample size, but you conveniently left that part out.

I'm saying as others have too that given the choice of one of the above and a top starting pitcher, I'll take the pitcher and the Cabrera's and Howard's of the world. YOu don't think I don't realize it doesn't work like that???

IMO, he doesn't deserve to be paid 50% more than the best 1b-men in the league and he's not the second best overall player in the league. he's just not.

alright I'm done after this one post.

As you say all of Tex's postseason hits are singles. That to me is a problem for someone with 74 XBH's all year to not have one single one in the 4 games he played in the playoffs?? He continues to do that wherever he goes and he'll be compared to AROD in not just salary but also in playoff performance.

And for some one who's supposed to be one of the best, he had an opportunity in game 2 to tie the series he hit a sac fly in the bottom of the 8th with one out where a hit would have kept their momentum going and an extra base hit would have been key and may have helped his team to a split at home that could have changed the outcome to the series. Instead, the 8th ended 5-5 and Drew untied it in the 9th with a 2 run HR vs K-Rod.

And in game 3 that the Angels won, he was 0-3 with RISP. He got two meaningless singles to end the game 2-6.

In game 4 he struck out looking in a 0-0 game with runners at 1st and 3rd with two outs. A hit there would be huge.

Oh and in comparison Howard only batted .269 in the postseason but his OBP was .397 and had 3HR's and 9RBI's and singlehandedly won game 4 of the WS with a 2HR 5RBI performance that basically sealed the deal.

Oh and now Howard's got a ring and Tex does not. So you can have your close and late during the season. Howard steps up when it counts.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/writers/jonah_freedman/11/21/freedman.contracts/index.html?eref=sircrc

sorry the article from SI.com didn't copy right. should be here now.

"As you say all of Tex's postseason hits are singles. That to me is a problem for someone with 74 XBH's all year to not have one single one in the 4 games he played in the playoffs?? He continues to do that wherever he goes and he'll be compared to AROD in not just salary but also in playoff performance."

Do you realize that he was facing the Boston Red Sox pitching in the playoffs. And seriously how much playoff experience dos the guy have. I think it's a little early to write him off as a choke artist like A-knob.

Do you realize that he was facing the Boston Red Sox pitching in the playoffs. And seriously how much playoff experience dos the guy have. I think it's a little early to write him off as a choke artist like A-knob.

I wasn't comparing. Just trying to make a point that Tex is about to be wayyy overpaid for the production that he will give whoever gets him compared to what others are doing and agreed, he's got a long ways to go to get to AROD's postseason futility. Its just that with his salary, and if his team, wherever he goes doesn't win and he does similar to what he's done this past year that conversation will start. The comparisons to Bonds (pre-2002) and Arod will be made.

nixa37,

actually my point with Hamels vs Lincecum is that it warrants discussion. Their stats are comparable and in instances where Lincecum is slightly better than Hamels, he now has his postseason resume where Lincecum may never get there with the Giants.

But if you re-read my post, my concern is that Tex is inflating the market to levels never before seen for a 1B. His salary represents a 30-50% increase vs most every other top paid 1B in the league (not including Cabrera because he was originally a 3B and if not for his weight he may still be one.)

Again my point is that this contract will further make it impossible for my Phils to keep Howard (assuming it made sense to).