Olney's Latest: Manny, Peavy, Fuentes

If Vitters is the centerpiece in the Cubs offer for Peavy then they have more than enough to get this trade done. Enough with the "Cubs don't have the trade chips" chatter, because if they include Vitters then the supporting cast of the other names bandied about would be enough to finalize it.

And with the what the Braves say, they could afford both AJ and Peavy but could they afford to sign a SS or LF and trade for the other...I doubt it....and Prado won't play SS...

VAFriar - I think it has gone from KT saying "I want top young Pitching for Peavy and nothing else!" to "I want Whatever can be perceived as value for Peavy because we need to dump his salary."

While Vitters seems to be a Gem I still think Peavy would be a Brave by now if they did not have a team policy against NTC's.

The only thing I remember was during the trade the Dodgers agreed to not pick up his options, maybe the return to that agreement was he would not accept arbitration. Then again, does anyone really trust Boras?

"Olney suggests the Rockies were wise to trade Matt Holliday when they did, or they might've gotten significantly less."

The exact opposite of Kevin Towers, whom apparently didn't learn from last season with the Twins and Santana that holding on to a star player; desperately trying to get more, more, more is a loser strategy. Now what will he get for his team's ace? Some Cubs' scrap? Nothing (keep Peavy)? Ouch.

Those who don't know their history are doomed to repeat it I guess.

Screw the Cubs:

Peavy to Chi-Sox

Poreda, Fields, Russell to SD for Peavy

As much as I would like to see Dunn step to the plate in a cubby uniform. Having Soriano and Dunn patrol the OF corners for us could be pretty dreadful.

I am not 100% on this and I don't have a link but:

I think Boras and Manny "wanting a multi-year deal" Asked the Dodgers to agree to decline Manny's two 20 mil options in exchange that Manny would NOT accept Arbitration. Hope that helps?

Really the cubs package is better. I beg to differ. The Braves offer was A Major league ready shortstop( cheap one might I add). Two pitchers in Reyes and Morton who have already had experience at the majors. A speedy outfielder and another good prospect. How does it get any better then that. Towers is an idiot for not pulling the trigger on this one. They need to dump his salary along with Peavy.

Valverde might be available? We Mets fans should be happy about this. At best we get him for a song (Heilman and another prospect) and Valverde sets up Wood for us. At worst it further drives down the market for Fuentes and KRod.

Valverde has the best 1-2-3 innings numbers in baseball this season, he is an elite closer.

Any chance the Padres moved Hill because a cubs middle infielder is likely heading their way?

To the Chi Sox fan above.....

If anything it would be Poreda, Getz, Russell, and Anderson for Peavy. But since Peavy doesn't want to come to the AL let alone the Chi Sox then it is just wishful thinking. KW wouldn't do this either. He is trying to slash a little payroll and get younger, can't see why he would trade away his top prospect and a couple other young players for just Peavy.

"No one player in that rumor is better than Yunel Escobar"

That's arguable. Vitters projects to be a much better hitter than Escobar. Escobar is great defensively and he can hit for average with an acceptable OBP, but he's unlikely to be much of a power threat the way Vitters. Plus, Vitters is 6 years young than Escobar.

As for the Braves entire package. It's likely a GM that values performance-based scouting sees little value in Gorkys Hernandez. His back to back .735 OPS seasons in the minors is very unimpressive. Charlie Morton is a horrible pitcher, no need to bring him up again. JoJo Reyes' numbers at the minor league level are intriguing, but so far so bad at the major league level.

Garrett Olson has a career 2.96 era/1.16 WHIP in the minors with a good K-rate. Him + Vitters is a better return than the Braves package.

Bravesfan, let's look at that Braves package:

Escobar -
He is good, not even going to look up stats because he is a solid player. Very good defensively and average offensively. I do like him, but lets see the rest of these MLB ready players.

Morton -
In 15 starts the guy has a 6.15 ERA, a 1.61 WHIP, more or less a 1/1 BB/K ratio, and around a 4.5BB/9 and 4.5K/9 and an ERA+ of 69

Reyes -
In 32 starts he has a 4.25 ERA which is deceptive, because he also has a 1.66 WHIP, a 4/5 BB/K ratio and 4.5BB/9. He only has a career ERA+ of 72.

Yeah... I'd say the Cubs deal is better if they can include Olsen, Vitters and Marshall...

And I just noticed I was way off on Reyes' ERA, its 5.94, which makes way more sense. I was looking at his +lgERA

Can anyone elaborate on the "serious tension" between Leyland and Dombrowski?

Scribble, you paying Dempster 52M to sit on the bench?

Teetz1,

Escobar has an acceptable OBP? Dude had the 3rd best OBP in baseball for qualifying SS in a down year. With his defense, Escobar is almost certain to be a 6-8 win player. Yeah, Vitters has the cieling of a 10 win player, but its fairly unlikely that he ever even gets to Yunel's level, let alone significantly past it.

Saying Morton is a terrible pitcher and shouldn't even be mentioned is just straight ignorant. Yeah, the guy didn't have good minor league numbers until this past season (when he was great in AAA), but his stuff is just as good as Olson's. He's obviously not as valuable because he doesn't have the track record, but to act like he's nothing is just dumb.

As for Gorkys, he's a lot of projection and skills that don't show up in stats. He has plus plus speed (didn't steal this year b/c of hamstring injury) and plays plus defense in CF. The performance hasn't shown up with the bat yet, but he's still a solid B prospect on the fringes of the top 100.

If the Padres are getting Vitters, Marshall, Olson, and a good PTBNL I think the deal is better than what the Braves offered. Replace Marshall with another good PTBNL and its close. Otherwise, I think the Braves offer is probably better.

Manny is the consolation prize in the "Teixeira Sweepstakes".

"Charlie Morton is a horrible pitcher, no need to bring him up again. JoJo Reyes' numbers at the minor league level are intriguing, but so far so bad at the major league level."

A Horrible Pitcher? Let me just say that if Morton was not brought up this year and the braves left him in AAA, his hype would be near what Hansons is now. He has the stuff and the same goes for Reyes. I would like to see them with the braves next year because they both have a chance to be good and maybe great pitchers.

O and please never judge a pitcher by his rookie season. Just go look up Smoltz and Glavines rookie seasons.

Typekey stikes again...

I will go on record and say I do not like this Peavy deal rumor. I think the Cubs should stay away from draining depth at both levels. I know I am in the minority here. However, it seems Towers and Hendry have their minds made up. I am not sold on getting Peavy.

studio 179,

You probably are the minority, but that doesnt mean your wrong. Seems like the Cubs are giving up some good players on the farm just to get Peavy. By doing that I have to wonder whats left after that. Seems like they are trying too hard to win it next year and trading away a part of the future to do that. The Cubs make it to the playoffs nearly every year. They will win it eventually with or without Peavy.

Yunel Escobar hmm...I swear...You freaking Braves fans act like you have Hanley Ramirez or Jose Reyes. You braves fans probably get wood every time he comes up to bat or makes a routine play. Come on now..Yunel made 3 errors in only 80 TC, He strikes out more than he walks, and 2008 was his first full year as a starter and he hit just .288. Nothing REAL special there. I'm just tired of all this crap about Yunel...shut up people, if he was really that good you all wouldn't want the braves to trade him.

Teetz,

Morton's numbers don't look as good because he really struggles to control his stuff, not because the stuff isn't there. Clearly you've never seen the guy pitch or read a scouting report on him and you think minor league numbers mean everything (go check out Chuck James and compare his minor league numbers to Olson). Morton finally started to get a better handle on his pitches this season and after making the move up to AAA he upped his K rate to 8.2 while dropping his BB rate 3.1, which is basically in line with what Olson did at AAA. Anyways, Morton throw a fastball that sits in the 92-94 range with decent movement, a plus curveball that's he's finally starting to control, and a solid change that comes in right around 80 giving him a good velocity difference. His stuff is very comparable to Olson's as I said, the difference is that Olson has better control over his stuff at this point.

Olney is wrong (as he is about a lot of his conjecture) on Manny possibly accepting arb.

It is a widely known fact that the Dodgers agreed to void his two club option years in exchange for Manny declining arb if/when it was offered to him.

That was the beauty of the deal for the Dodgers. If they didn't keep Manny, then they would net out 2 high draft picks to replace the prospects given up.

ok. what exactly are the Orioles going to get if they give up Olsen? they had a need at shortstop and didnt want to trade for Green straight up.

landfill224 - There is no question that D. Lee is a terrific defensive 1st basemen, arguably the best in baseball. But, it's also clear that his offensive skills are on the decline and his trade value may be at its highest right now. He led the league in double plays grounded into last year and he hit 7 hr's after something like May 15. The fact is the Cubs need some left handed pop in the lineup, a guy that can hit a HR and strike fear into the opposing pitcher and Dunn does that. Personally, I'd like to see what Hoffpauir could do at 1B. With him at 1B and Dunn in RF, it would certainly solve all left handed power issues...though creating defensive issues.

Anyone think that the Pads will get Vitters and then flip Kouz or Headley for an additional pitcher. To say Minnesota or Kansas City?

As a Reds fan, I would love to see Dunn in a Cubs uniform.

I mean, Dunn has a hard enough time playing Defense in a symetrical stadium with not much wind so I can just imagine him in Wrigley.

As far as First Base goes, in 2006, the Reds plan was to move him there but he balked and publicly said he didn't like playing First. He didn't work at it in Spring Training, so the REds traded WIly Mo Pena for Bronson Arroyo, moved Dunn back to LF and then traded for Scott Hatteberg to play First.

Last year, after eh was traded, Dunn palyed soem First Base for het D backs but they moved him back to the Outfield. The ONLY reason I think Dunn agred to play First Base last year was because he was up for Free Agency and his Agent probably told him it would help his value on the market.

If Dunn were to play First Base with the Cubs, you have to ask yourself how many Runs would he cost the team with his bad Defense there as compared to what Derrek Lee would. Then, you have to ask if the number of Runs that Dunn costs on D would be less than what he would produce on Offense, compared to Lee.

I can also see Dunn playing ball in Wrigley in April and May when it is cold, rainy and the wind is howling in. Pitchers will be throwing him meat Pitches and he will be crushing them....right into the Right Fielders glove. So, balls that would be easy Home Runs in GASP will be Outs in Wrigley during those months.

Then there is the heat.

Dunn is a tall guy and doesn't keep himself in the greatest of shape. Since the Cubs play a majority of their Home Games during the day time in the Summer, just think how that heat beating down on Dunn for three hours a day would take it's toll on him.

Then think about September, a month where Dunn's Offensive stats fall off the cliff.

If he wears down in September and his stats fall off while playing his Home Games in GASP just think what would happen if he played his Home Games in Wrigley. Then think about if the Cubs NEEDED him to produce Offensively because they were in a pennant race and he tanked?

amhcubby,

Perhaps the only thing scarier than having Dunn in RF full time is Hoffpauir at 1B full time. That would instantly become one of the worst defensive teams in baseball with our LF, RF, 1B, SS all below average.

Ctownboy--

Tell us how you REALLY feel about Adam Dunn, LOL

I agree with you BTW, as a Cub fan, it's easy to get mesmerized by Dunn's yearly HR total and that pretty OBP. The Cubs have needed a good lefty power bat for so long just the THOUGHT of someone consistently dropping balls onto Sheffield Avenue is a boner-riffic thought.

But the rest of Dunn's game is so atrocious I think the net effect would be a negative to the Cubs, or most any other team. Now that he is making 8 figures per year, Dunn's negatives just aren't worth that kind of coin.

I had to do this for a little bit of fun... sorry Nixa!

"[Rich Hill's] numbers don't look as good because he really struggles to control his stuff, not because the stuff isn't there. Clearly you've never seen the guy pitch or read a scouting report on him ... Anyways, [Hill] throw a fastball that sits in the 92-94 range with decent movement, a plus curveball that's he's finally starting to control, and a solid change that comes in right around 80 giving him a good velocity difference. His stuff is very comparable to Olson's as I said, the difference is that Olson has better control over his stuff at this point."

So is Rich Hill worth as much as Morton? haha.

I love this whole arguement that the cubs package may be better than the braves. I guess you are arguing against every knowledged insider that knows anything about baseball that says the braves package puts the cubs to shame.

Your arguement is the stats of Jo-Jo Reyes and Charlie Morton in about a half year of MLB experience.

First off, let me state that both of these guys were rushed up this year due to the insane amount of injuries to braves SP.

Jo-Jo Reyes had a 36 inning scoreless streak in AAA this season and an era in the 1's before being called up to the braves. Yeah, he and Morton may have been knocked around, but to give you an idea of what pitchers do in their first year, Randy Johnson had a 6.67 ERA his first half season in the pros. Peavy had a 4.56 era his first season on the padres. I guess that no one should have ever taken on projects like these guys, not to mention that Maddux, Glavine and Smoltz all had 5.50 plus ERA's in their first seasons, while Clemens had a 4.5 era in his first season....man Morton and Reyes have no chance, and they should just go with Marshall because he's so dominate. Oh yeah, his ERA was 5.59 in his first season with the cubs, and he gave up 20 hrs with a terrible walk to K ratio...guess that your theory has holes.

Not to mention, Vitters has already had injury problems. Gorkys Hernandez was in the futures game, and is projected as a top notch prospect.

Sorry, but Vitters, Marshall, and I can't find work Cedeno just don't hold a candle to Yunel (.328 ba first yr in league) and the prospects that Gorkys, Morton and Jo-Jo Reyes offer. It's a steal package for the Padres, just like the CWS stole Tyler Flowers off the braves.

Oh and Rich Hills fastball sat in the 86-88 range as opposed to the 92-94 range like Morton's. I don't know, maybe that extra 5-6 MPH makes a difference or something?

Morton wouldn't quiet be as hyped as Hanson, but he is still a big time prospect that was rushed up because injuries. Hanson is throwing in the high 90's consistently and has command of 3 solid pitches now. The braves wouldn't give up Hanson for Peavy straight up right now.....not after the domination that Hanson had in the Arizona Fall League. 1 some era, 10+ k's per 9 innings. That kid is a straight up stud. If Peavy goes to the cubs, then it's just another question mark when it comes to the health of cubs pitching. Cubs are loaded as is, they don't need to sell the farm to get peavy...hold on to the farm so you can put something together when you need it. Stop hitting the panic button because you struggled in the playoffs, if anything, get rid of non-playoff producing Soriano

CubFanForLife,

Maybe you should reread some of the thread before posting? Its not that we are hyping these guys as much as responding to a Cubs fan who said Morton was nothing. Most Braves fans will be much happier if we land Burnett instead of Peavy, because we won't have to give up a large portion of our farm system.

Nixa,
It's just the defensiveness that makes me laugh. Making excuses for players weaknesses (Escobar is 'unlucky', Morton 'struggles to control his stuff'). You can make the same excuses for any player or prospect that has talent but doesn't produce. The unemployment line is chock full of guys with talent out the wahzoo that could never produce at the big league level. You act like every single player in the Braves system is going to realize their full potential and blossom into a star. It doesn't work that way. When you trade for prospects you're taking a risk - they may develop and help you at the major league level, they may not. There's no guarantees in this game. Sure, Morton might turn things around and become an excellent pitcher some day. Or just as likely, he'll continue to 'struggle to control his stuff' and end up flipping burgers in a few years. Josh Vitters could be the NL MVP in about 5 years. Or he could be salesman of the month at your local Ford dealer. You can pull out stats and peripheral numbers and Bill James predictions all day long - none of it means a thing until these guys produce at the big league level.

Escobar was unlucky, his BABIP was well below his career norms. That's not an excuse, its pretty much just a statement of fact. The reason I point it out is that everyone only focuses on Escobar's numbers from 2008 and disregards the better numbers he posted in his ML action in 2007. Last years numbers do not appear to be indicative of his true talent level...and even then he posted the 3rd best OBP of any SS.

You have also still missed the point with Morton. Cubs fans dismissed him because his minor league numbers aren't impressive. Still, your typical minor leaguer with those numbers. His stuff is far better than his numbers indicate, which also makes him more valuable than his numbers would indicate.

You don't just evaluate prospects on performance, you have to look at other things as well. I, along with other Braves fans, was just pointing out that the scouting report on Morton is far stronger than his numbers indicates. If you take that as defensiveness, as opposed to contributing to the conversation, that's your problem.

CubFanForLife, what projections are you using to assume Vitters could be salesman of the month at Ford?? I'd like some stats to back up these claims please. You're way to high on him as a potential prospect.

"Orioles: Pie, Cedeno

Padres: Vitters, Olson, 2 PTBNL's

Cubs: Peavy"

All the Cubs fans keep talking about Pie to the Orioles to get, or be part of a package, to get Olson to trade for Peavy. The O's have Adam Jones to play CF, they don't need Pie.

The fact of the matter is... how often do teams trade Cy Young winners with 5 years remaining on their contract that is extremely team friendly? This is NOT a normal scenerio.

And let's not rip on Braves fans for overvaluing their prospects, the Cubs are notorious for this as well, as are the fans of every other team in baseball. We are much worse lately with our busts of Patterson and Pie.. I for one would like to see some major league performance before I crown any more top prospects.

"The O's have Adam Jones to play CF, they don't need Pie."

Umm...its well documented that for 2 years, with Adam Jones, the O's have been interested in Pie. Take it up with McFail.

Nixa,

Are you trying to tell me that a .312 BABIP is "unlucky", but the .367 he posted the year before was normal? The projections next year have him at .330...

So I guess if he was "unlucky" last year, he would have been "lucky" his first?

He is projected to be a .790 OPS player, and a good defender. While thats valuable at SS, its not all that amazing. You can't fault Towers for wanting someone with more upside than he has. You can make the argument that Vitters might not pan out, so you would take the "safer" package...but Towers is doing what many would consider to be the better move.

Taking the player who is good with 1 or 2 years less service time

or

Taking a package that gives you more pitching and a prospect with an MVP type ceiling, who has all of his service time left and figures to be ready about the time you are ready to compete.

Please don't tell me you don't at least see the logic there...

Aduncaroo, there's no point in arguing logic with the guy. He's a complete homer that will dig up any obscure stats/numbers he can find and twist them around until he can use it to 'prove' that Player A from the Braves farm system is better than anyone you can stack him up against. The guy thinks Kelly Johnson is the best 2B in baseball and Charlie Morton is going to be a multiple Cy Young winner because he has 'great stuff'.