Discussion: Pablo Sandoval

We haven't heard anything about the Giants considering a contract offer for third baseman Pablo Sandoval, but Tim mentioned him as possible extension candidate.

Sandoval, 23, burst onto the scene with a late season cameo in 2008, then finished seventh in the 2009 NL MVP voting when he hit .330/.387/.556 with 25 homers in his first full season. He won't be eligible for arbitration until after the 2011 season, but that doesn't mean San Francisco can't secure some cost certainty now. 

The best comparable for a contract extension might be David Wright, who inked a six year, $55MM deal in the middle of his second full season. The Mets' third baseman hit .306/.388/.523 with 27 homers in his first full season, and was hitting .308/.382/.545 on the August 2006 day he signed his deal. Sandoval started the 2010 season at nearly the same exact age that Wright started the 2006 season, but the biggest difference between the two is that Wright was a far safer bet to remain at third base long-term.

With a 5-foot-11, 245 lb. frame (that's what the team's official site says), Sandoval has a -2.3 career UZR at the hot corner, and is expected to slide over to first as he gets older and potentially gets even bigger. That's something the Giants will have to consider if they approach their best hitter with a contract, that it's easier to find a first baseman that hits like he does than a third baseman.

Wright's deal bought out his last remaining pre-arbitration year (for $1MM), his three arbitration years (for $22.5MM total), and two free agent years (for $29MM total). There's also a $16MM club option ($1MM buyout) for the 2013 season, which would have been Wright's third free agent year. That framework seems reasonable for Sandoval, though the Giants might not want to assume so much risk with a bad bodied player. Buying out his last four years of team control for $23MM or so with (ideally) a club option or two for some free agent years would make sense.


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17 Comments on "Discussion: Pablo Sandoval"


Member
BaseballFan0707
5 years 3 months ago

Do the Giants have the money to give him that kind of extension? Would it cost them signing Lincecum long-term?

Member
55saveslives
5 years 3 months ago

Giants have a 90 million payroll with talks of raising it for the right bat…

Renteria and Huff are off the books at the end of this season which is about 12 mill.

Member
BaseballFan0707
5 years 3 months ago

In that case, it would probably be feasible to get Lincecum at perhaps 16 mil per at minimum, and still get Pablo signed up.

Member
shockey12
5 years 3 months ago

Even if they do lock up Panda and Lincecum that’s roughly 30 million to just 2 players that leaves 60 million for the rest of the roster including Cain and Zito. They might be able to lock up their young stars but does that leave them enough money to be able to improve enough to make the Giants champions?

Member
BaseballFan0707
5 years 3 months ago

It’ll be tough. It’s humanly possible to ride your pitching to the WS (See the Astros of 05, though they did have alright hitting as well), but winning it all is another story (The Sox rode their pitching a bit, but had a good lineup with a good amount of power).

Member
gigantes2425
5 years 2 months ago

not to mention the 20 million that is being paid for the stadium. after 2011 it is paid off. i’m sure the giants can use some of that money to pay for his salary.

Member
Mercenary480
5 years 3 months ago

I think you mean 2013 Mike… Not 2016… His option is 16mil for 2013….

Member
5 years 3 months ago

Thanks, fixed.

Member
Ferrariman
5 years 3 months ago

if he would have stayed at catcher…he might be giving joe mauer a run for his money for best catcher in baseball right now.

but anyways…i think sense he is only 23…the giants do have a bit of luxury of offering a 5+ year deal without having to deal with the aging factor. but 250lbs….maybe throw in some incentives for losing weight.

Member
bjsguess
5 years 3 months ago

I think you have to take quite a bit off the top if you are using Wright as a comparable deal. The perception is that guys like Panda are much, much, much more likely to break down over time with weight related injuries. The required move to 1B also really hurts his value.

You could use Wright as a starting point and then subtract maybe 10-20% for the reasons listed above. That would give him 6/$45-50m. To sweeten the pot I would look at matching Wrights deal dollar for dollar for the guaranteed years and then lowering the cost on the team options. That guarantees that Panda gets at LEAST $23-$24m over the next 4 years. The team is protected should his body go down the tubes.

Member
bomberj11
5 years 2 months ago

I think I’d wait after this year to see how he performs, even though I have a lot of confidence in him being just as good as he was last year. I just think it’d be smart to make sure he didn’t just have a fluke season. I just don’t wanna see the Giants hand out another monster contract and have it not work out.