Odds & Ends: Gonzalez, Red Sox, Fielder, Phillies

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62 Comments on "Odds & Ends: Gonzalez, Red Sox, Fielder, Phillies"


SixtoLezcano
5 years 13 days ago

Are you kidding me? Brewers are not going to trade Fielder for something centered around Wade Davis. Jeremy Hellickson, maybe.

jwredsox
5 years 13 days ago

Agreed. Unless the Rays really offer some nice secondary prospects and several of them.

johnsilver
5 years 13 days ago

Rays would be out of their minds to swap Wade Davis for 1 1/2 years of fielder. Davis will be a #2, maybe even a #1 in a year or 2, especially on that brewer staff.

invader3k
5 years 13 days ago

Maybe they don’t need to trade for Fielder, but do you think they can catch the Yankees without acquiring at least one impact bat?

johnsilver
5 years 13 days ago

I don’t think either Boston or the Rays can catch the NYY honestly, they are just way to stacked. the only real weakness that team has is the bench. the BP is not that bad. Bosth the Rays and Sox don’t have the best either and kind of negates the Yanks so-so in that dept. Both Boston and the Rays are fighting for the WC spot in IMO and swapping their future #2 seems like a poor thing to do for a 1 1/2 year rental they have -0- chance of signing LT.

jwredsox
5 years 13 days ago

Actually their bullpen has been pretty bad. Joba has been terrible for them and no one outside of Mariano has stood out.

BaseballFanatic0707
5 years 13 days ago

David Robertson has been much better lately. Joba’s peripherals are still sound (shocking I know). Cashman knows he still needs to go out and get some arms, so it’s nothing to be heavily concerned about to be honest.

BaseballFanatic0707
5 years 13 days ago

The Rays have one of the best bullpens in baseball: http://www.fangraphs.com/teams.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&lg=all&type=1&season=2010&month=0

4th in terms of xFIP, 3rd in FIP, 2nd in WHIP, 3rd in BB/9, 2nd in K/BB. The only areas they are average in is K/9 and HR/9.

The Rays’ problem is the lack of ability to get a hit with the bases empty (They’re .256 team average is thanks in LARGE part to their clutch-ness….but you can only be so clutch when you’re hitting like .230 with no one on base).

BaseballFanatic0707
5 years 13 days ago

Ok, chances are my original comment doesn’t show up, since comments with links seem to never show up, but:

The Rays have one of the best bullpens in baseball. 4th in xFIP, 3rd in FIP, 2nd in WHIP, 3rd in BB/9, and 2nd in K/BB. They are slightly above average in terms of K/9 and HR/9.

The Rays’ problem is that they can’t hit the broad side of a barn when the bases are empty. They’re middle of the pack when it comes to team average, but, unless some great reversal has occurred, it is thanks in large part to having a great average with RISP. Which, to be honest, isn’t anything to write home about if you barely have runners on base.

dickylarue
5 years 13 days ago

invader,

I totally agree Tampa needs an impact bat. They’ve always felt one bat short to me. I’m not sure that’s the difference they need to catch the Yankees, but I think it’s what they need to get to the post season and go far in it.

aap212
5 years 13 days ago

Davis might be a number 2 on the Brewers staff, but he won’t be better than a 4 on Tampa, and they need a hitter.

dickylarue
5 years 13 days ago

I don’t think they’d be out of their minds. You have to give something up to get something.

The kind of presence and production Prince could have in the Tampa lineup is worth considerable talent.

A ball guys aren’t going to get it done.

Tampa has to look at their team and decide if they are going to constantly try to contend while rebuilding or thrown down the hammer and contend and take a step back on the development route.

I think they are missing that one thing that makes that lineup invincible. Prince Fielder could be it.

5 years 13 days ago

So the Phillies need to make a move because the Braves downgraded at short? Even as a Braves fan I don’t see the logic in that. It’s not like the Phillies aren’t going to make a move anyway, why rush something just because the Braves gave Bobby a retirement present? (I’m obviously joking here)

theydizneyboy
5 years 13 days ago

I thought the same exact thing. I was a little confused by the logic here. This move doesn’t seem to be impacting enough to force the Phillies to make a deal as soon as they can. More than two weeks until the deadline, the Phils will make at least one move.

5 years 13 days ago

Exactly, I guess if they make a move people want to sound like they predicted it would happen or they are just one-upping the Braves? Again, the Phillies will make some move however I seriously doubt it will be to answer what the “Braves have done”.

aap212
5 years 13 days ago

Which part is the joke? Seems on point to me.

5 years 13 days ago

Even if Gonzalez keeps the power up, I don’t really see this trade as a big improvement for the Braves either. Escobar might need a change of scenery, however, he would have improved his power numbers a little bit. Gonzalez, while having a terrific season, like mentioned in a post below, is among the league leaders in “Just Enough” HRs. They lose average and gain a bit of power. It is, however, a pretty even trade considering what the Braves got back in addition to Gonzalez.

5 years 13 days ago

So people are treating Alex Gonzalez’s 2010 season like it’s a real thing, like maybe at age 33 he suddenly became a 30+ HR threat? He’s a worthwhile player and all, most years, but those 17 homers positively stink of fluke.

Muggi
5 years 13 days ago

Agreed. The guys at FanGraphs had a great blog entry about this, entitled “Beware the Jay’s Sluggers”. To summarize, it showed how Gonzalez (and Bautista to a lesser extent) are among the MLB leaders in HitTracker Online’s “Just Enough” HR category (cleared wall by less than 10ft, or landed within a wall’s length of the wall) and were greatly helped by the Rogers Centre.

This is particularly noticeable for Gonzalez, and could be a negative predictor for his ATL tenure…Rogers Centre has a 110 Park Factor for RHB’s, Turner field has a 90. That’s a HUUUGE swing.

5 years 13 days ago

Exactly, I’m glad people that actually understand these factors are commenting about Gonzalez. The are crazy to think he will keep up this production at Turner Field, heck I doubt he hits 5 homers at the Ted for the rest of the season…

5 years 13 days ago

+1 I hated this part of the trade for the Braves, Gonzalez is a downgrade from Escobar. They got great prospects though so its about even.

Muggi
5 years 13 days ago

Yeah I don’t think it was a bad trade all things considered, but the knee-jerk “it’s a short-term win-now deal for the Braves” isn’t exactly accurate IMO. I don’t think it makes them noticeably better short-term, except maybe in clubhouse morale.

Long-term they got a couple prospects who might help them down the line…and TOR got a young SS who they can keep for three years on the relative cheap, or hope he rebuilds some value and trade in the future.

Pretty even, if sometimes misunderstood, trade overall.

EcRocks
5 years 13 days ago

I wonder what happens to the average payroll of the AL all stars if you remove the Yankees players.

bonestock94
5 years 13 days ago

I’m going out on a limb here, but I bet it decreases

55saveslives
5 years 13 days ago

Just remove Arod.

aap212
5 years 13 days ago

What happens to the average size of mammals if you remove whales and elephants?

jwredsox
5 years 13 days ago

Who cares?

aap212
5 years 13 days ago

I was equating the two answers, genius, not trying to engage you guys in a zoological discussion.

icedrake523
5 years 13 days ago

Elephants and whales are natural. The Yankees’ payroll is unnatural.

Here’s how ridiculous it is. The Yankees’ 2009 payroll is $206M, obviously 1st in baseball. The 2nd is the Mets at $139M. That’s a difference of $67M. A team that spends $67M less than the Mets is the Reds at just about $72M. There are 20 teams between the Mets and the Reds in payroll, yet none between the Mets and Yankees.

bonestock94
5 years 13 days ago

I agree, these selfish owners pocketing all their money rather than spending on their teams need to be taught a lesson. I’d like to see a salary floor enacted next collective bargaining agreement.

icedrake523
5 years 13 days ago

Baseball needs a salary cap, not a floor.

0bsessions
5 years 13 days ago

It needs BOTH.

5 years 13 days ago

I like Prince as a DH for Tampa, they certainly have the pieces to get him. Davis + 3 prospects or Hellickson & Quate should get it done.

jwredsox
5 years 13 days ago

IT’s going to take more than Hellickson and a High A pitcher to get it done.

Pat_M
5 years 13 days ago

Is it? A consensus top 5 prospect for 1.5 years of an expensive Prince? I agree that it will prolly take another prospect to make it a 3 for 1 package, but Hellickson is a arguably (i think he is) a better prospect than LaPorta and Smoak. The days of the Mark Teixeira trades are over, and the Brewers are desperate for pitching. Who is a pitcher better than Hellickson that the Brewers can get if they trade Prince? There isn’t one, and most trades are always focused on that one blue chip prospect.

Pat_M
5 years 13 days ago

You could argue there are pitchers with a higher ceiling – Martin Perez, Casey Kelly, Julio Teheran – but not one that could step in immediately and pitch in the Brewer’s rotation.

jwredsox
5 years 13 days ago

arguable but that isn’t enough for a guy with 1.5 years left before free agency. Maybe if it was just half a season that would work but that isn’t enough for 1.5 years.

jwredsox
5 years 13 days ago

In both the Laporta and Smoak deals it was for a player who had .5 year left on the FA clock. Look at the Teixeira deal with 1.5 years left to Atlanta and .5 year to the Angels. Notice the difference in the overall package? Like I said that would be enough if Prince were going to be a free agent next year but the Brewers are still going to ask for the world because they will have another year to trade him if they don’t get what they want. Plus, unlike the Rays, The Brewers aren’t one pitcher from the playoffs if they have to give up Prince to get him so while they are desperate for pitching if they are going to trade away their season they are going to want more than one pitcher and another guy who is 2-3+ years away.

Edit: I missed your point on the Teixeira days being over and I agree with the way Atlanta got robbed but it still holds true that the Brew Crew will want a lot more than they will if they still have Prince next year.

Pat_M
5 years 13 days ago

Yea i guess it is just a matter of perspective. Perhaps the best analogy would be the Roy Halladay trade because he was traded with 1 season left and signed a below market value contract. The Blue Jays got 3 top 100 prospects – Drabek, Wallace, and D’Arnaud. However, none of those guys was or is regarded as a top 20 prospect in the game. Again, I’m just going on consensus – Toronto might think they are all top 10. Hellickson is widely regarded as top 10 prospect, a pretty sure thing, and is ready to contribute now. I would prefer to have the guy that could be the Brewer’s co-ace for the next 6 years rather than 3 guys who profile as above-average to very good players.

SixtoLezcano
5 years 13 days ago

I hope you aren’t still counting on Davis being “Brewers’ co-ace” for the next 6 years. He has been terrible in almost one hundred innings this year. Incredibly terrible. Unable to strike anyone out, one of the worst pitchers in the majors terrible. Sure, he still has upside, but the Brewers don’t need a second Manny Parra.

Pat_M
5 years 13 days ago

I’m also worried about the Brewers leverage as we move into next season or to the next trade deadline. Everyone knows Prince is going to command a huge extension after 2011 and there is also a good chance that Adrian Gonzalez will be on the market at the same time. Teams could then play the Brewers and Padres against each other to take a lesser deal or risk losing them for just draft picks.

5 years 13 days ago

If you talk about guys currently in the minors, and not guys who have been promoted recently but who still count as “prospects”, Hellickson is in the top 5 prospects in the minors, easily. The Brewers wont need more than 1 of those plus a lower level good prospect to move Prince. That’s a pretty great deal for them.

I love how you are a red sox fan, are you just scared of TB really sealing the WC with this move or something? Looks that way, and good luck trying to pry Adrian away from SD (not. gunna. happen.)

5 years 13 days ago

I get nervous about NL guys coming over to the AL as a DH. Some guys have a hard time just DH’ing (read Pat Burrell)

dickylarue
5 years 13 days ago

Love the idea of Prince to TB. They have the pitching that the Brewers would want and he would be the missing link in a lineup that feels one elite power bat short as it stands.

It’d be a great move for Tampa for next season as well since the added offense will off set the loss of Crawford and allow Jennings some breathing room to develop at the big level.

It almost seems like a perfect match, which means it will never happen, lol.

Still, I give Olney credit for cooking that one up.

5 years 13 days ago

C- John Jaso
1B- Carlos Pena
2B- Sean Rodriguez
3B- Evan Longoria
SS- Jason Bartlett
RF- Ben Zobrist
CF- B.J. Upton
LF- Carl Crawford
DH- Prince Fielder

brewcrew6
5 years 13 days ago

Maybe if they reach an extention with Crawford they could package Jenningsin the deal or we could also throw in Corey hart as a replacement

aap212
5 years 13 days ago

No, if they let Crawford walk, take the draft picks, and replace him with Jennings, they have the money to pay Fielder next year and then some. I really don’t think you want to be paying Crawford in four years at the salary he’ll be getting, and Tampa can’t afford to pay $80 million for $50 million worth of production.

jwredsox
5 years 13 days ago

Crawford will probably be cheaper than Prince. He already turned down 5 years/100mil.

aap212
5 years 13 days ago

I’m strictly talking about next year, when Prince will be in his last arbitration year and Crawford will be in the first year of his free agent deal. My thinking doesn’t involve Tampa locking up Fielder long term.

jwredsox
5 years 13 days ago

Alright I understand.

aap212
5 years 13 days ago

Flags fly forever. The Rays have such great starting pitching depth, not to mention a strong crop of younger pitchers in the minors who are two or three years away. I’d happily build a package around Davis for Fielder and see what kind of run they could make with Fielder’s bat this year and next.

nictonjr
5 years 13 days ago

Would the Rays be able to keep him for a year and a half?? How much do you think Boras is going to ask for in arbitration?? Are the Rays going to pay Fielder ~$18 mil for 2012??

aap212
5 years 13 days ago

Pena and Crawford come off the books. Jennings and Fielder step in. The arbitration number will be doable, especially if he helps them into the playoffs and garners them a little extra revenue.

SixtoLezcano
5 years 13 days ago

Davis is not good enough to land Prince Fielder! Stop deluding yourselves!

aap212
5 years 13 days ago

As a starting point? Why not? What better piece are you going to get from someone else for Fielder? Especially since the Rays can also include someone like Matt Moore, Colome, or Torres in the trade as a second player, setting aside what the other pieces would be.

I’m not deluding myself. I have no rooting interest here. I think if the Rays start a package with Davis and Moore or Colome, the Brewers don’t hang up the phone.

brewcrew6
5 years 13 days ago

I would really like if we could get Hellickson instead of Davis and the rest of that package. If Jennings is “untouchable” even for a premier bat like Fielder maybe they could send us Tim Beckham

nictonjr
5 years 13 days ago

The Rays should just keep calling the Nats about Adam Dunn. A rotation next year of Stras, Davis, Zimmerman is a pretty good start. Offer Dunn arb after the season if the rays want him for one more year. Ar worse they get comp picks back and alot of payroll space over trading for Fielder…

jwredsox
5 years 13 days ago

Just to be a devil’s advocate with Hellickson here. But prospectjunkies is one site I’ve seen that isn’t too high on him like other publications are. They think he has good stuff but that his ceiling isn’t that great for a good team. They project him as a #3 on a good team so that is hardly the ace that the rays fans think. Like I said just playing devil’s advocate but Hellickson reminds me of Buchholz though prospectjunkies don’t see his curveball as a plus pitch like I think Buchholz’s was and as more of it being Hellickson’s command of it that does the job.

jwredsox
5 years 13 days ago

Just to be a devil’s advocate with Hellickson here. But prospectjunkies is one site I’ve seen that isn’t too high on him like other publications are. They think he has good stuff but that his ceiling isn’t that great for a good team. They project him as a #3 on a good team so that is hardly the ace that the rays fans think. Like I said just playing devil’s advocate but Hellickson reminds me of Buchholz though prospectjunkies don’t see his curveball as a plus pitch like I think Buchholz’s was and as more of it being Hellickson’s command of it that does the job.

jwredsox
5 years 13 days ago

This is what fans of the Rays don’t get and should. You can try to do it every year the way they are and have it be that they have to upset some team to get in the playoffs or do they spend the money/prospects and have a chance to be the team to beat in the playoffs. I’d rather be the latter.

nictonjr
5 years 13 days ago

They tried spending on Burrell. That didn’t work. They traded for Soriano. That worked very well except he’s a fa after the season.

I’m all for trading from minor league depth, but the Rays 5 SP haven’t missed a start this year. How often does a team have no injuries to the starting staff?? Soriano, Balfour and Benoit are fas after the season. Bartlett, Upton and Garza are ae. Getting Fielder probably costs the Rays the ability to sign any of the bp arms. The Rays reality is the they have to make ‘OR’ decisions (Fielder or a bp) not ‘AND’ decisions (sabathia and Burnett and Teixeira). It is what it is…

jwredsox
5 years 13 days ago

Or the rays could realize that since all those guys are going to be free agents this could be their last run in 2 years and they should go all in and get Fielder.