Olney On Phillies, Bautista, Dodgers, Red Sox

Rumors from the blog of ESPN's Buster Olney

  • Olney suggests the Phillies acquiring Roy Oswalt and trading Jayson Werth would in large part be about positioning the team for 2011.  Oswalt would still be under contract next year, while Domonic Brown would get big league seasoning.
  • Some teams feel that the Blue Jays are bluffing by asking for elite young players for MLB home run leader Jose Bautista.  Rival executives feel that Bautista's salary will jump to eight figures in his final arbitration year, and the Jays would be reluctant to pay.
  • The Dodgers expect they'll be able to add a starter and reliever in the next ten days, giving up better prospects while the other team pays the player's salary.  Not the best long-term strategy.  The Dodgers have been linked to Paul Maholm, Roy Oswalt, Ted Lilly, Jake Westbrook, Fausto Carmona, David Aardsma, and the Blue Jays' relievers.  
  • Some teams believe the Red Sox will be aggressive on the waiver wire next month, placing strategic claims at a time when few teams are willing to take on salary.  Today on the Dennis & Callahan show, Red Sox president Larry Lucchino said the team has "money set aside to acquire talent if we can find it," at that they're at the "bottom end of the tax threshold." 


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46 Comments on "Olney On Phillies, Bautista, Dodgers, Red Sox"


5 years 1 month ago

Sounds like how the Dodgers lost Carlos Santana for Casey Blake…

5 years 1 month ago

They wouldn’t hace gone to the NLCS if the hadn’t. Besides we would still have Revolving door at 3B

thegrayrace
5 years 1 month ago

Oh come on. Casey Blake and his .251/.313/.460 line with the Dodgers in 2008 took them to the NLCS? Really?

Besides, the Dodgers could’ve obtained Casey Blake without giving up Carlos Santana if they weren’t unwilling to pay Blake’s salary. If they picked up Blake’s salary they could’ve got away with Lucas May instead of Santana.

Then they could’ve used Carlos Santana and Josh Bell to obtain Cliff Lee in 2009, instead of George Sherrill. Starting to see how dumb the Carlos Santana trade was yet?

markjsunz
5 years 1 month ago

It has to do with money. It is like selling a player outright for cash. The owner gets to pocket the 6 weeks of Blakes or Sherill`s contract. McCourt has spent the least amount on minor league draft picks and team development of any owner since he took control. McCourt inherited a great group of young talent that with a few moves at securing an ace might have lead to a championship. Now it looks to be going the other way.

thegrayrace
5 years 1 month ago

No argument from me there!

Guest
5 years 1 month ago

wow 8 figures for Bautista? That’d be a jump of over 4x …is that unheard of for a 3rd-4th time arb player? (or 2nd to 3rd)

5 years 1 month ago

We’d have to find examples of guys whose performance jumped so dramatically right before their last year of arb. I am going to look into the whole thing a little more. But Bautista I think can be compared to any player rather than just those with 5-6 years service time.

zeroes
5 years 1 month ago

I thought the arbitration process took the previous three years experience into account. Even if the most recent year is weighted somewhat higher, which I don’t think it is, Bautista’s performance over a 3 year period is nowhere near worthy of 8 figures. That sounds absurd.

Sniderlover
5 years 1 month ago

I don’t think he’ll get to 8 figures. Maybe something like 8 mil at most. Either way Jays have tons of cash so they can sign him.

However, if Bautista doesn’t get dealt I think he gets signed to a long term extension, maybe similar to what Zobrist got.

5 years 1 month ago

This was around the amount that I had ballparked for him as well. I really do hope we can avoid the long-term extension. We know he’s playing over his head, and even if he isn’t, how many years would he be able to keep this up? 2 or 3? It’s highly unlikely he’s worth it. We might not be able to get a Montero-type, but even a 3B prospect or future #2-type starter I would think would be of equivalent value considering Bautista would be controlled for another year.

5 years 1 month ago

Indeed, they can just give Bautista the money they no longer have to pay to BJ Ryan.

rayking
5 years 1 month ago

The Mariners would accept anything offered for Aardsma.

But no way the Dodgers get the teams of the other pitcher mentioned (Maholm, Oswalt, Lilly, Westbrook, Carmona) to eat the salary, even if they do offer top-notch prospects. There are teams willing to trade good prospects AND pick up the tab on the those guys.

bbxxj
5 years 1 month ago

The Pirates and Indians both have a recent and strong history of eating salary in a trade in order to get better prospects. Santana for Blake and the Wilson/Sanchez deals are the most recent examples.

5 years 1 month ago

Carmona or westbrook would be good pick ups for the dodgers. Our GM, Ned has been pulling off miracle trades at the deadline for a few years running now.
And Ardasma/Broxton combo would be the best in baseball.

dire straits
5 years 1 month ago

Have you been watching Broxton lately?

ThinkBlue10
5 years 1 month ago

we should trade him, im sure hes pretty valuable. kuo could take over the closer role.

Gibbys_Limp
5 years 1 month ago

If you think we should trade Broxton, you’re delusional. Kuo taking over as our closer? You’re aware he can’t pitch on back-to-back days, right?

ThinkBlue10
5 years 1 month ago

your delusional if you think broxton should continue to blow games in the 9th inning for us, te guy doesnt have it. hes just not a 9th inning pitcher. alright if not kuo we can get another closer. closers my friend, are a dime a dozen.

Gumby65
5 years 1 month ago

I have a dollar. Go get twelve right now. And you mean to tell me Broxton is supposed to be so infallible that he can’t have a bad spell?

0bsessions
5 years 1 month ago

Is that so? Alright then, Adrian Beltre’s protective cup straight up for Aardsma. Barely been used!

Potrzeba
5 years 1 month ago

Like who would be placed on waviers that the red sox would want?

johnsilver
5 years 1 month ago

Kerry Wood comes to mind right off and his horrid remaining portion of the 10.5M salary. Scary part could be the 55GF trigger option on 11M option for 2011 if Cleveland actually let him finish enough games this year to get close to that amount. That would instantly nullify anyone’s interest in him.

East Coast Bias
5 years 1 month ago

Wasn’t there a contradictory report that said the Red Sox were trying to keep payroll down to try to stay under the luxury tax?

5 years 1 month ago

Yes but they are already over the limit for the luxury tax.

5 years 1 month ago

i think that olney hit the nail on the head in regards to the phillies. why not make a big move for the a ace type pitcher for next year. if the phils get into the playoffs this year and acquire oswalt that could be the best in the post season.

aap212
5 years 1 month ago

Last year, the Jays had a GM who trashed Adam Dunn out of nowhere for no reason. Next year, they might have to give ten million in arbitration to a guy who in a wildly off the deep end career year is playing like Adam Dunn. I like it.

mt99808
5 years 1 month ago

Except for the fact that Bautista can play about 5 different positions and many of them as an above average defender giving teams incredible lineup flexibility without sacrificing defense.

aap212
5 years 1 month ago

He’s got a good arm, but he’s not actually a very good defender, especially in the infield.

bjfan
5 years 1 month ago

“Some teams feel the Jays are bluffing”. Really? I am sure the Jays will be happy to take a couple of scrubs for the HR leader.

5 years 1 month ago

if the dodgers continue to sell off the farm (i.e. santana for blake) or eventually some of the younger players such as kemp or billingsley to get another 4th starter such as maholm, im done with this team. mccourt can take it and shove it up his you-know-what…

bjfan
5 years 1 month ago

“Some teams feel that the Jays are bluffing”. Really? I am sure that the Jays will be happy to take a couple of scrubs for the HR leader, who plays numerous positions.

bjfan
5 years 1 month ago

sorry didn’t mean to post it twice.

5 years 1 month ago

I also don’t really know what that point is supposed to mean. What are they bluffing about? Are they bluffing that they want high end talent (makes no sense)? Are they bluffing about really wanting to trade him (ask too much, and then if they don’t trade him that’s okay)? Or are they bluffing in that they are going to ask high, and then settle for something decent?
I’m assuming the article meant the latter, but it was not quite clear to me (nor was it clearly true).

bjfan
5 years 1 month ago

I think that other teams are so used to the Jays never really being in the hunt, or being willing to take washed up players. They just don’t quite know how to get a handle on AA or Rogers and their willingness to pay. Keep on underestimating!!!

thegrayrace
5 years 1 month ago

The Dodgers need to call it a season and sell high on guys like Furcal, Padilla, and Broxton. Rebuild the farm, which is basically mediocre, and plan for 2012.The WORST thing the Dodgers could do is trade off the few good prospects they still have for average players and salary relief in a half-hearted attempted to contend this season. The Giants and Rockies have more resources, both in payroll flexibility and prospects, and can easily match any moves the Dodgers would make. And the Cardinals and Reds are making it look like the Wild Card may not come out of the NL West.That being said, Frank McCourt is an idiot and will probably drive this team into the ground rather than publicly acknowledge that he doesn’t have the resources available to make this team competitive right now. After Padilla, Kuroda and Manny drop off this off-season, the Dodgers are screwed until ownership changes.Adding an average starter and a single reliever isn’t going to help. The Dodgers need an ace and 2 or 3 solid relievers. Right now they’ve got nothing but garbage beyond Kuo, Broxton, and Weaver, and the latter two have been mediocre lately, too.

I should add that their bench, beyond Carroll, currently consists of Garret Anderson, Ronnie Belliard, A.J. Ellis and Brad Ausmus. How’s that for terrible?

Gumby65
5 years 1 month ago

“The Dodgers need to call it a season and sell high on guys like Furcal, Padilla, and Broxton.”

It’s kinda hard to “sell high” on Padilla. I actually like him right now and he’s lights out, but his rep is awful around the league. If he goes to a team/city that he’s not “mentally comfortable” in (or has 3-5 players he’s drilled), he can be himself in no time flat. Broxton & Furcall? AND throw in the towel this year? Hogwash. They have had a horrendous run the previous 2 seasons and done more than “got back in the thick of things”. I’d be more inclined to side with you on this if it were a little more dire, but not yet.

“I should add that their bench, beyond Carroll, currently consists of Garret Anderson, Ronnie Belliard, A.J. Ellis and Brad Ausmus. How’s that for terrible? ”

Compared to a lot of teams, Really?

thegrayrace
5 years 1 month ago

Kuroda or Padilla, whomever brings back more. Padilla’s reputation is a good point, but he’s pitched better than Kuroda as of late.

kimofromkauai
5 years 1 month ago

The sorrow of this Dodger mess is that McCourt is not an idiot but rather a very shrewd, cunning person who knows how to con the public, the tax man, and the fans. His family has drained untold 10’s of millions from the team and he will continue to do so while living his life of luxury and paying no taxes.

The Dodgers need several pitchers but likely will get only what comes for free (or prospects).

5 years 1 month ago

It’s not like Bautista is sneaking fly balls over the fence and we should expect those to turn into warning track flies. He has 17 home runs of 400 feet or more. (Compared to his career high 16 home runs of any distance in a full season.) He has plenty of room to “come back to earth” and still have those clear the fence.

Fangaffes
5 years 1 month ago

I can also see the Sox putting some highly paid guys like Cameron, Beltre, Martinez, and Ortiz out on the waiver wire to make them eligible for waiver-trades later on in case things fall apart. They have some guys who would be excellent rentals for a contending team and wouldn’t mind restocking the farm system or getting back under the cap.

johnsilver
5 years 1 month ago

Not intending to Dice you in any way, but without going and looking it up, the Sox had one of the top 8-10 ranked farm systems in MLB at the start of the season and I *think* it was number 8 off the top of my head. Just most of the better prospects are at AA or lower and of course Ryan Westmoreland went down with the brain surgery.

Now putting some of the players on waivers is good and also fully expect it to be done, it has been done before and most GM’s will try that maneuver since they can in most cases pull them back if a claim is made.

Fangaffes
5 years 1 month ago

Yeah, exactly. Not saying the farm system is bad, but it could always be better. Losing Westmoreland was a huge blow for sure, not to mention Tazawa. Anyway, it’s a way to salvage the season from a total loss if things go badly.

dodgerjulio
5 years 1 month ago

Jesus Christ, my team is an embarrassment at the trade deadline. If we trade Withrow, Sands, or Jansen for F-ing Paul Maholm, I will cry.

thegrayrace
5 years 1 month ago

Don’t worry, it’ll only be Gordon and E. Martin.

NNNWWW
5 years 1 month ago

:-(

Dustroia15
5 years 1 month ago

Why don’t the Red Sox trade Beltre for prospects…then trade prospects for Fielder, then move Youk to third. If San Diego falters maybe reexplore the AGonz trade with Kelly and the Beltre prospects going to SD.

I also think trading DiceK for Werth is pretty close. There is no doubt in my mind that DiceK can be as good if not better than Oswalt in the national league, plus he would come at half the price. Sox could add Reddick to the deal. If the Sox could lock him up before the season ends great, if not, take the type A’s and go hard after Crawford.

I would also like to see Ellsbury, Bowden, and additional prospects moved to KC for DeJesus and Soria.

I don’t know why the Sox would even want to touch the waiver wire if all they’d be taking on is bloated contracts of guys like Kerry Wood.