Gammons On Prospects, A’s, Kalish, Iglesias

Peter Gammons appeared on WEEI's Minor Details podcast to discuss the value of a deep minor league system, the difficulty in finding power hitters, and, of course, the Red Sox.  WEEI's Alex Speier has the partial transcript, and here are some of the highlights…

  • The value of top prospects, Gammons notes, is higher than ever before since teams are realizing that it isn't cost-effective to sign free agents when those older players are entering a decline phase.  Dealing for a star player in his prime is now the preferred option for a team like Boston that has a strong minor league system.  “Having three really good prospects and getting Adrian Gonzalez so they won’t have to pay him past the age of 35, I think that’s part of it," Gammons said.
  • To wit, Gammons believes the Yankees will forego trying for a free agent pitcher and instead use their own deep minor league system to acquire a pitcher like Brett Anderson or Gio Gonzalez "if Oakland doesn’t get off to a really good start."  I'm not sure I agree with Gammons on this one.  It's hard to believe the A's would deal Anderson or Gonzalez for anything short of a totally absurd offer, be it from the Yankees or anyone.
  • Shortstop Jose Iglesias and outfielder Ryan Kalish are "without question" going to be regulars for Boston in 2012.  This puts them right on track to succeed incumbents Marco Scutaro and J.D. Drew, who are both in the last year of their contracts.
  • Theo Epstein told Gammons before the 2005 draft that drug testing was going to create "a new game over the next five to 10 years," and then the Sox drafted Jacoby Ellsbury in the first round.  Gammons notes that Boston has yet to develop a consistent power hitter in Epstein's regime, aside from Kevin Youkilis (who was drafted by former Sox GM Dan Duquette).


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122 Comments on "Gammons On Prospects, A’s, Kalish, Iglesias"


Dave_Gershman
4 years 5 months ago

I’ll be honest, i’m totally against trading Gio or Brett for anybody, especially with potential regression from Trevor Cahill which will happen more likely than not, but imagine if the Yankees offer Jesus Montero for one of those guys? Hard to say no.

Also, with this being a prospect post, two words — ROYA LS

AthleticsFan
4 years 5 months ago

It’s probably going to have to be more than Jesus Montero. Dont you think??

Dave_Gershman
4 years 5 months ago

Yeah, I think so. But nothing crazy. I still don’t think either are going anywhere.

The_Silver_Stacker
4 years 5 months ago

The only trade that Montero would be dangled in would be for King Felix, but that is definitley not happening.

woadude
4 years 5 months ago

You know, it is getting really old hearing any Yankee fan talk about King Felix in trades, even when they end it with, definitly not happening, how about you focus on pitchers that Yankee homer broadcasters talk about, like Josh Johnson of the Marlins, the Marlins hate paying pitchers money, could they use Montero and take that slob Joba off your hands?

YanksFanSince78
4 years 5 months ago

“slob Joba”? Yeah, no bias there.

I am Urban Legend
4 years 5 months ago

wait…u still believe that line that Joba gained 45 pounds of pure muscle this off-season?

no yankee bias at all

YanksFanSince78
4 years 5 months ago

Well seeing as neither of us have seen him w/o his shirt and all reports from the ppl that sign his checks say it was 20 lbs I’ll go by what they say and not you. Cool?

0bsessions
4 years 5 months ago

To be fair, it’s most definitely in the Yankees’ best interest to talk Chamberlain up considering his potential as trade bait.

Yankee_Baal
4 years 5 months ago

Yeah, but after a strong finish last season and a week of sprig training people are calling him a worthless slob whom the Yankees need to move… come on. He might not have a great value now, but is not someone that they “need” to remove.

Guest
4 years 5 months ago

The Mariners are an embarrassment to baseball and their own fans. They have the best pitcher in the AL and the arguably, the 2nd best pitcher in baseball behind Halladay and I’d even argue Felix has more value these days due to age alone. That being said, the Mariners are in an incredibly tough position. They have the best player in baseball complimented by a bunch of nobodies and a patch work roster. No disrespect to Ichiro who is obviously a HOF type candidate, but as his age now (still productive) I wouldn’t be saying “hey he’s part of our future” guy. He may only have a handful of years left in him. Point being I do not expect the Mariners to compete in the next two years (Felix has three or four years left of his contract) and that team more or less, needs a lot of help. They have a couple of very talented prospects in the system, but not enough to get by in 11 or 12. So where does that leave them, maybe (and that is a slim maybe) they are competitive in the remaining year of Felix’s contract? I don’t see it. I’ll argue this point to my death..No one seems to want to agree on here, but I listened to a podcast from a couple local Seattle guys back in December, and well, they feel the same as I do..Roll the dice with Felix (subject to injury and their only hope to turn this thing around) and see if you can squeeze one winning season out of 3 or 4 left or trade him soon, net a huge bounty and field a complete team next year? To tell you the truth at this very moment, I can’t even tell you who is pitching behind Felix in 11? Anyone else know or are they just going to throw Felix out there every 5th day and forefit the other 4 games in between? I’m dead serious when I say that..Plus let’s face it..If Felix continues to pitch the way he is, does anyone think the Mariners are going to win in a bidding war with the Yanks, Phils, Sox in 2015? Probably not. Not moving Felix in the next 12 months is just prolonging the inevitable. Cashman knows this..so do others I’ve spoken to. Jack Z is defensive about the subject because he knows he is in a very VERY difficult position. As I said in a previous post about 4 months ago. The Mariners had three chances to maximize Felix’s value. Last year with Cliff and Felix heading the rotation (strike 1) this year will tell a lot. If they don’t win more than 70 games, that will be strike two and I guess we’ll see what happens from there..Felix being traded is very real and a lot will be determined in the coming months for those Mariners.

MaineSox
4 years 5 months ago

Paragraphs man.

I actually agree with you. If I were the Mariners GM I would start listening to offers for Felix, but a team would have to mortgage their future for me to trade him, especially with four years left on his contract. If the Yankees wanted him I would ask for something along the lines of: Montero, Banuelos, one of Brackman/Betances, Heathcott, and a couple guys in their 15-20 range (maybe a couple of Laird/Culver/Adams).

In other words I would want a package that would give me a chance to compete in a year or two. Most teams would balk at a package like that so it might take something more creative, but that’s what I would ask for.

Guest
4 years 5 months ago

Written after my vitamin shot this am so a bit a rambling cohenentness going on there…

Montero + Nova + Betances + Nunez + Gardner

Montero behind the plate, Nunez at short, Ackley at 2nd, move Figgens back to 3rd, Smoak at 1st, Garder in LF, Guterriez in Center, Ichiro in RF, with Nova and Betances injected into the rotation along Pineda and Bedard as a #4…

OF’s are pretty cheap (non Crawford) so even if it was Montero, Betances, Nova, Brackman (over Gardner) and Nunez…

I’ve been studying this closely for many, many months and I’ve determined that Felix could be wearing one of four or five jerseys next season in this order – Yanks, Tigers, Jays, W-Sox, Dodgers..Tampa would be a long shot. Outside of that I don’t see any other team matching up with the pieces. The Sox have Iglesias, but wouldn’t have the other pieces needed. Not even sure Tigers, WSox or Jays do either, but they all seem to be on move up for the moment so could be potential matches. This is really more about the Yanks however..

Guest
4 years 5 months ago

I’m also going to say based on what I’ve seen so far, I’m not even sure as a Yank fan I’d want to trade Montero, Banuelos or Betances at this point. The whole Felix thing could be a moot point considering we could have something close to him in Banuelos. Hearing comparisons to Guidry and Santana is a good start..

In a sense I’m afraid Jack Z could have missed the boat on this one concerning the Yanks. Felix Hernandez’s value was probably at his all time high this past Nov/Dec. What if Montero (just a hypothetical) produces a line of 285/385/410 and hits 20 or more homers with 70 or better RBI’s this coming season? What is Felix is still stellar, but not as good as 2010? The gap narrows and then if the Mariners wanted to trade Felix they might only be able to net say just Montero and Nova alone…

Notin J. Notin
4 years 5 months ago

The minor leagues and back ends of bullpens are loaded with guys who were supposed to be “next greatest guy.”

Banuelos will NOT be as good as King Felix, despite the opinion (or possibly press-twisted words) of a couple of Yankee employees.

Banuelos at age 19, spent pretty much the entire year in A-ball. At 19, King Felix was spending half of a season in the majors.

Whether or not Banuelos is any good is another matter altogether.

As for your hopes on getting Felix for Montero and Nova – unlikely. Even if Hernandez has a lesser year, he is still only 25 years old – or, you know, one year older than Ivan Nova. Even with Hernandez contract, if the Yankees topped out their offer at Montero and Nova, there are plenty of teams that can and would easily beat it….

MaineSox
4 years 5 months ago

Assuming that Banuelos will be as good as Felix would be foolish, but that’s not what Century did; he said he could be almost as good, and by all accounts it sounds like he has a chance to be that good. Saying that he absolutely will not be as good is just as foolish as saying that he absolutely will be as good.

What each of them was doing in their 19 year old season really doesn’t have any bearing on how good they are; Roy Halladay didn’t pitch at all in the majors until he was 21 and didn’t get a full time starting job until he was 25, does that mean he can’t be as good as Felix either? Because I’m pretty sure he’s the one person you could say is better than Felix…

P.S. Peter Gammons (certainly not a Yankees shill) said that Banuelos is like Johan Santana with a curve ball. If that turns out to be true I think he has a shot at being “something close to (Felix)” as Century says.

4 years 5 months ago

As a lifelong A’s fan I disagree. The A’s are set at the MLB level with Suzuki.

Plus, the A’s have “their” catcher of the future in Max Stassi. The kid is a projected MLB all-star and already has elite defense tools. He is three or four years out and he will be the successor to Suzuki.

Personally, I feel Montero is another over hyped Yankee farm hand and it doesn’t’ meet a need for the A’s.

CitizenSnips
4 years 5 months ago

So you’re all over Stassi’s ceiling and tools but shove Montero aside as overhyped? Yeah that makes perfect sense.

YanksFanSince78
4 years 5 months ago

Montero can play 1B and be your DH. You have an anemic lineup and every year you’ve try and obtain over the hill DH types to stick in your lineup. Yeah, you couldn’t use Montero at all.

PS- Not suggesting Montero for Gio is a good deal.

Also, didn’t know that the Yanks had every single talent evaluator on the payroll. So let me guess…….10 to 15 ROyals and Rays in the top 100 he unbiased opion. 3 or 4 Yanks in the top 100 equals some sort of “Watergate-ish conspiracy”. Can you imagine Cashman in a raincoat, hat and shades carrying the sinister brief case to pay off the stooges at Baseball America?

wolf9309
4 years 5 months ago

yeah I mean, he may be useful as a DH, but a DH is nowhere even close to the value of a half-decent starter, never mind one of those guys (I did see your PS, I know you’re not suggesting it)

fgsfsfbbbrd
4 years 5 months ago

Don’t forget about Dusty Napoleon!

Snoochies8
4 years 5 months ago

If Cahill was a flyball pitcher then I’d kinda be worried about a regression, but with one of the best defensive infields I’m only slightly worried about a regression, and that regression might only be a slight one

Dave_Gershman
4 years 5 months ago

Being a flyball pitcher has nothing do with it. He’s definitely going to regress. He was extremely lucky last year with a .236 BABIP and a 4.19 FIP. His fastball/sinker is his really only good pitch and he only throws it at 90.1 MPH on average. He’s just really hitable.

jpshark
4 years 5 months ago

You have to remember that Oakland’s elite infield defense is one of the reasons that BABIP is that low. Is that figure sustainable? Probably not. Cahill was somewhat lucky last year, but the park he plays in as well as the infield behind him won’t be leaving his favor anytime soon. I also expect him to increase his K rate as he learns to incorporate his curveball more consistently, and reducing that FIP. Cahill gets docked hard with regards to FIP because of his low K rate. By the way his secondary stuff is better then you give him credit for, and your not accounting for the fact that he also throws a 4-seam fastball that sits 93-94. Also, the velocity of his 2-seam fastball (sinker) really doesn’t need to be any higher to be an above average pitch. The movement is the important part. Brandon Webb was a Cy Young caliber pitcher with a 87-89 MPH sinker. I completely understand the assumption that Cahill will regress, and I also believe he will, but I don’t think it’ll be anywhere near the point that some people are claiming. I’m thinking a 3.3-3.4 ERA, 6.5 K/9 and another slight reduction in his BB rate. Trevor Cahill is a very good pitcher and is just now entering his age 23 season.

As far as a trade for one of the A’s starters, I would have to think that if come June they’re out of it, an offer including Montero and Banuelos would get Beane’s attention. All three of the A’s new boppers will be FA’s after the 2011 season. If Beane sees an opportunity to grab a very good bat in Montero, I could see him pulling the trigger considering the pitching depth Oakland has

YanksFanSince78
4 years 5 months ago

His splits were not really that bad. He did allow more HRS on the road (13) than at home (6) but almost all other peripherals are the same.

jb226
4 years 5 months ago

I’ll give you the BABIP; that’s low and almost certainly going to rise, making at least a small regression probable.

But what is the point of looking at FIP if a pitcher’s team defense hasn’t really changed between the two years? I’d look at FIP if I were considering a trade for him, I’d look at FIP if I wanted to try to compare him to another pitcher on a different team, but I don’t see why I should look at FIP trying to predict a regression unless the defense itself has gotten worse.

Maybe I’m missing something. I’m hardly a saber expert. It just doesn’t seem like good evidence.

MB923
4 years 5 months ago

How about just revising it and saying, what is the point of looking at FIP at all?

**awaits notsureifers response

notsureifsrs
4 years 5 months ago

FIP is one of the best predictors we have of future ERA in general because it tells you how a pitcher performed, well, independent of his fielders. if the quality of the fielding changes, so will the pitcher’s ERA for example – usually in the direction of his FIP figure

jb’s point here is that even if he performs the same as he did last year in terms of FIP, he could still have a very nice ERA because the defense behind him hasn’t changed much from last year. it’s a good point. span identified that his FIP was high, but didn’t consider what that would mean here

FIP is still extremely useful when comparing cahill to other pitcher’s, of course, but it’s not useful here for what span wanted to do: find a reason to predict major regression for cahill. his FIP is high, but he still has great defense behind him, so his ERA may still turn out low. he’ll still likely have to survive an increase in BABIP though

MB923
4 years 5 months ago

Ahh, knew you’d respond sooner or later. :)

But why use FIP and BABIP? One ignores hits given up except HR, and the other shows how hitters hit against him and the defense.

notsureifsrs
4 years 5 months ago

but i just said why. FIP is one of the best predictors we have of future ERA

if nothing else, BABIP can give you an idea of how likely a repeat performance is. because BABIP fluctuates wildly for many pitchers (part of the reason FIP is important!), a low BABIP usually means a pitcher’s overall statistics will worsen the next year when BABIP returns to the mean

in cahill’s case, i wouldn’t be that worried about it. he’s a sinkerballer in a pitcher’s park whose HR/FB rates will only go down if anything. regression in his BABIP fgure won’t necessarily doom him if it’s offset by fewer homeruns

FrankTheFunkasaurusRex
4 years 5 months ago

even with the same defence, BABIP tends to fluctuate.

baseball33
4 years 5 months ago

Dear Span,

Can you please take off your Yankee hat. A new picture of you with a Royals hat might be better.

Thank you in advance,

baseball33

Dave_Gershman
4 years 5 months ago

Okay. Deal.

Snoochies8
4 years 5 months ago

HAHA at the idea that the A’s would deal Anderson or Gonzalez, I could see them CONSIDERING a trade for Braden, but even then it’d be a consideration at best, and it’d have to be a damn high-quality haul for him since he’s still arb-eligible for a couple more years

Edit: of course since I’m an A’s fan I’m fairly irrational as to what Braden or anyone else would pull, but I still stand by what I said!

Dave_Gershman
4 years 5 months ago

Yeah, I agree. That whole team is centered around the two of them.

Pete
4 years 5 months ago

I’m an A’s fan and I would love to trade Anderson+Green for Montero+Gardner. We need outfielders, badly, and Gardner is the perfect CF solution. Pennington looks the goods as a long term SS so giving up the potentially better Green doesnt hurt too bad, and even less by getting Montero. Anderson is godly, a total ace of the staff when he’s on and Green is the A’s #1 prospect and would be a possible heir to Jeter’s throne. Really its a great deal for both sides.

I think Gio is the only untouchable guy Oakland has. He’s about to become a sensation.

corey23
4 years 5 months ago

yea we really need outfielders, you know with sweeney, carter, taylor, choice…. we need them really badly. gardner is a product of the yankees offense. any player on the a’s would be soooo much better if you stuck them in boston or new york’s lineup. beane rebuilt… he got young players, we have a good core of young players that could be up in 2012/2013 and the pitching will be established even more so by then.

YanksFanSince78
4 years 5 months ago

I can see how the Yankee lineup might effect a number #3-#8 hitter but how does it help Gardner? So much of his strength is because of his patience and speed. Those are traits you can duplicate in any lineup. He was 5th in BB% and 13th in Pitches Seen in the AL. Those are attributes you can produce anywhere. If anything, pitchers are probably attacking him more because he can hurt them more with a walk than he probably can with the bat (or until he proves otherwise).

Guest
4 years 5 months ago

Have to agree with you on this one…

corey23
4 years 5 months ago

i wasn’t trying to take a shot at gardner… he’s probably my favorite yankee because they didnt buy him. I’m just saying, when you play with guys who are great players, and they bat all around you, you have an advantage. It’s great for him, he plays with a ton of all stars, that will definitely rub off on him. sure he could have been great everywhere, but being on the yankees couldnt have hurt his development

notsureifsrs
4 years 5 months ago

you have an advantage in things like RBI if hitters on front of you are on base a lot. and if the lineup turns over a lot, you get a few more plate appearances than you otherwise would. but even though it’s a bit counter-intuitive, there isn’t actually any clear advantage to having an elite bat behind you in the order

Pete
4 years 5 months ago

Talent does not “rub off on” people you either have it or you dont. The only advantage he would get would be via better umpiring calls or something intangible.

sportsfan07
4 years 5 months ago

There’s been talks that Beane wants to extend Willingham and DeJesus so we will see what will happen with them before we try to get Gardner or anything like that. Anderson is worth much more than Gardner and Montero (especially because Montero needs a defensive position). No way will he take over for Suz because what he gives you in terms of offense, we will lose just as much in defense. Plus Suz is not batting in the #3 position anymore so without all of that pressure, his numbers should go back to that .270, 15 HRs numbers that he had before last year.

xfipMachine
4 years 5 months ago

I love the people scoffing at the idea of the A’s trading Anderson or Gonzalez…. have you seen how Beane deals with his pitchers over the last 13 or so years?

Anderson was on the DL with an elbow injury last year, Gonzalez is a K guy with major walk-rate issues.

It would take a huge package, especially for Anderson who could be the next best leftie after Lester, but I wouldn’t be shocked one bit.

4 years 5 months ago

There is no way any of the main 3 young starters the A’s have get traded, Anderson especially since he is locked up for years for super cheap. Gio and Cahill are still pre-arb guys and the A’s would never trade guys that good who are so cheap. Now in their last year of arb there would be a high possiblilty if they dont already have extentions.

woadude
4 years 5 months ago

That’s what they said when they had Zito, Hudson, and Mulder, no way they are trading them, and then the next year they were sent packing, except for Zito, they wanted to keep him but lost him to the Giants when they were irrational with their money.

4 years 5 months ago

yes it is true that they were traded, but they were not traded in their pre-arbitration years when they were cheap. Both were traded in their later arbitration years (Hudson, like I said, was traded in his last year of arbitration) when they were much more expensive. So if they are ever traded, it wont be for another 4 years or so.

corey23
4 years 5 months ago

zito had been extended prior to him walking. but i agree, no way they’re anderson, cahill or gonzales go before arb. mazzaro only got traded because gio stepped up and outman is looking really good.

YanksFanSince78
4 years 5 months ago

I can seem them being traded….easy. But I don’t see them being traded for prospects. If anything they “should” be traded (if Beane was inclined to) for a proven bat not simply one that projects to be amazing.

Actually though, their depth isn’t that great beyong the mlb roster though. Krol is probably at least 2 years away. De Los Santos is a toss up even though his ERA is deceiving and Ross is more of a back of rotation guy it seems.

vonhayesdays
4 years 5 months ago

i could definitely see the A’s making trades but not for a few year or so when the options are out and they would actually have to spend some money they dont make from the empty Macaffe colesium. its a shame cause i still admire the former philly athletics

vonhayesdays
4 years 5 months ago

years

YanksFanSince78
4 years 5 months ago

“I love the people scoffing at the idea of the A’s trading Anderson or Gonzalez…. have you seen how Beane deals with his pitchers over the last 13 or so years?”

Yeah, he trades them.

robnet707
4 years 5 months ago

If you look back you will see that Beane rarely trades young pitchers under team control for several more years.He will trade a vet in his prime years(see Hudson,Mulder,Haren,etc.) to restock.If he were to trade any of the mentioned(Braden,Gio,Anderson,Cahill) his socks would have to be ripped off him by force.Meaning the haul would have to be incredible.No way an anderson,Green for Montero,Gardner deal would get his attention,not when hes got choice and stassi a couple years out.

xfipMachine
4 years 5 months ago

Gammons also said expected the Red Sox to have a spending bonanza on the upcoming draft, especially with power. He said the Rays management plays for “windows of opportunity,” and they have been saving money for this draft for a long time, to make another run in the last half of this decade.

NomarGarciaparra
4 years 5 months ago

What is Gammons’ point about the drug testing and power hitter? I’m a bit confused.

amputechture
4 years 5 months ago

I think Peter Gammons was insinuating that Theo Epstein used god-like prophetic powers to peer into the future and see that the game was headed into a more speed driven game, hence the drafting of Jacoby Ellsbury. God I hate Gammons.

andrewyf
4 years 5 months ago

Should’ve drafted Gardner instead, eh?

amputechture
4 years 5 months ago

i replied already but it looks like it didn’t go through. in retrospect rasmus could have been taken but hindsight is 50 50 as the old adage goes. and i am not a yankee fan if that is what you mean.

MaineSox
4 years 5 months ago

20-20. Hindsight is 20-20.

amputechture
4 years 5 months ago

stupid me.

MaineSox
4 years 5 months ago

Eh, it happens.

rickjimbo
4 years 5 months ago

you actually had me going there for a second, “Hmm, hindsight really is 50/50 …. oh look Gullible is written on the ceiling”
sad but true.

MaineSox
4 years 5 months ago

Why?

RedSoxDynasty
4 years 5 months ago

Ells is better than Gardner, sorry! Nice try though!

BentoBox
4 years 5 months ago

Ellsbury has the steals and has been in the majors for a longer. If Gardner gets the same opportunity, he can be just as good as Ellsbury.

notsureifsrs
4 years 5 months ago

quite right. the only thing preventing me from concluding gardner’s the better player is his service time

forgetting that, he’s got better defense, comparable speed, and better OBP skills. his value is held down by granderson pushing him to left field. were ellsbury forced to play left field for his full seasons, his value would be lower than it was

MaineSox
4 years 5 months ago

I guess it really depends on how much of a fluke last season was for Gardner. If he stays a similar player to last year he is clearly the better player, if he regresses all the way back to ’09 numbers I think Ellsbury is probably the better player. It’s speculation at this point but I think the most likely scenario would be that it is somewhere in-between and they end up being about equal in value. Don’t forget that aside from ’10 Ellsbury actually had a better OBP, has better “power” numbers (though you’re talking the difference between 5 HRs and 10 HRs, or .379 SLG and .405 SLG) and strikes out considerably less.

That being said, Gardner definitely has the potential to be a better player than Ellsbury. I think we saw in ’08-’09 what kind of player Ells is likely going to be: somewhere between 3-4 WAR, Gardner has shown that he CAN be a 5+ WAR player, so it depends on whether or not he can do it consistently or if his real talent is somewhere between 3-4 WAR and last year was a bit of a fluke.

notsureifsrs
4 years 5 months ago

definitely – that’s what i meant when i mentioned his service time. gardner still isn’t fully proven, though his pitches per plate appearance figure last year suggests his discipline isn’t a fluke. strikeouts come with the territory when you take that approach and don’t really worry me. i’d love for ellsbury to strike out that often if it also meant getting on base more

“Ells is likely going to be: somewhere between 3-4 WAR, Gardner has shown that he CAN be a 5+ WAR player, so it depends on whether or not he can do it consistently”

true facts. but again, gardner put up 5+ WAR as a left fielder with no power; ellsbury’s best work came in center where there’s no real penalty for that missing tool. assuming his defense is for real (it’s only a season and a half, so it may not be), gardner’s probably at least a 4+ WAR centerfielder, even with some regression factored in

of course ellsbury may not have hit his ceiling yet either, so it’s not exactly a downer having him around

RedSoxDynasty
4 years 5 months ago

Ellsbury is an excellent defensive player as anyone whos watched him play can attest and his obp has gotten better every year and is as good as Gardners. Hes a better hitter by far .291-.268 with more power as well! Also lets see Gardner do it again in his 2nd full season to fairly judge him!

notsureifsrs
4 years 5 months ago

“his obp has gotten better every year and is as good as Gardners”

– ellsbury has played two seasons during which his OBP has been .336 and .355. the 20 point increase in OBP was due entirely to a 20 point increase in his batting average. he did not develop any better discipline at the plate

– gardner has played two (one and three-fifths) seasons during which his OBP was .345 and .383. his batting average increased only seven points over that time, while his walk-rate increased almost 5%

– ellsbury has never posted a walk rate above 7% overall; gardner’s was nearly double that last year (13.9%)

– ellsbury’s career average for pitches per plate appearance is 3.69 (never higher than 3.77). gardner’s last year was 4.62 (4.35 career) – the highest in all of baseball

“[ellsbury is] a better hitter by far .291-.268″

if batting average told us the quality of a player’s hitting, you would be right. gardner has never hit above .277 (.268 career) while ellsbury has gone a full season at .301 (.291 career). but batting average does not tell us about the quality of the hitting; it only indicates the quantity of hits (divided by at-bats). so unless you think a single is worth as much as a triple or a homerun, for example, you shouldn’t be using batting average to determine the quality of a hitter

wOBA on the other hand weights each non-out event (hit, walk, etc.) according to its relative value. ellsbury’s career-high wOBA is .354 (.343 career). gardner’s career-high wOBA is .358 (.341 career). thus there is no evidence that ellsbury is a better hitter than gardner

“with more power as well!”

gardner has very little power – and as a left fielder this really hurts his value. his highest ISO is .109 (.100 career). but ellsbury doesn’t have any either, with an ISO high of .114 (.114 career). so again, no

i love you to pieces and you are a genius, but literally everything you have just said is wrong

woadude
4 years 5 months ago

It actually sounded like Eptein knew players were on steroids,boy if the Mitchell report knew about that……

4 years 5 months ago

Seems like Anthony Rizzo might have been one of the first power hitters developed in Boston recently had he not been traded. 25HR 100RBI last year in the minors (A, AA). Not really an overwhelming offensive prospect but it’ll be interesting to see how he develops for SD.

woadude
4 years 5 months ago

He is going to be good, he makes really solid contact and the ball flies off his bat. A good example of a power hitter that was drafted by Eptein.

Pete
4 years 5 months ago

I really disagree with Gammons’ whole concept of the A’s being out of it and trading pitching. If the A’s are out of it, it will be because of their pitching and them all being injured. However, I do see the A’s and Yankees matching up well with a major blockbuster, as the A’s would love to have Montero, Gardner or Swisher. Who Oakland would give up for those three I’ll leave to the peanut gallery…

andrewyf
4 years 5 months ago

Why would the A’s want Swisher back? He makes more than $5M.

woadude
4 years 5 months ago

It’s not that they will trade them because they are “out of it” but Billy Beane is always looking to sell high on players and loves making trades, he had some bust signings that couldn’t work out and I bet he is itching to pull the trigger on a deal, remember what he got from Hudson? He is looking to repeat.

corey23
4 years 5 months ago

after this post i’m convinced you have no idea what you’re talking about. The A’s don’t want swisher, they don’t want Gardner and they don’t want Montero. The only offensive position they can develop is OF and they have suzuki and stassi at catcher. I could see them trading for a 3B prospect or a SS prospect but not outfielders or catchers.

j6takish
4 years 5 months ago

The A’s seem to collect players like Gardner, toolsy OBP guys with no power. Now only if he were injury prone, then we would be in business

sportsfan07
4 years 5 months ago

Willingham is a guy with power. Matsui is a guy with power. Carter is a guy with power. Taylor is a guy who flashed power and is due for a comeback season. Balfour had some injuries but he was still very effective and was not injured before. Fuentes hasn’t had injuries in a while. Just saying stuff out of your rear end is just simply ignorant.

Pete
4 years 5 months ago

After your posts I’m certain you are under 15 years old. Why wouldn’t the A’s want Swisher, Gardner or Montero? Gardner&Swisher are upgrades and Montero would be their #1 prospect and might stick in another position than catcher. The current OF of Willingham-Crisp-DeJesus-Jackson are all gone as FA’s after this year. Oakland needs all new guys and you cannot make that call that suddenly Carter learns defense and Taylor suddenly becomes MLB-ready out of nowhere.

Sweeney has the knees of a 40 year old, Carter is an absolute nightmare with the glove and is a DH/1B-only, Taylor was totally awful at AAA last year and Michael Choice has played 30 games in his pro career. The A’s have the worst farm system they have had in many years, I think they had a maximum of 2 guys (Carter&Green) in everyone’s top 100 prospect lists, and they were mid-later spots.

You have no idea what I’m talking about because I am talking about how to make a team better by upgrading wherever possible however possible. You clearly dont know anything about this topic.

corey23
4 years 5 months ago

i guess i’m just used to being an a’s fan so i know that there is no way they’ll go after someone like swisher who is getting paid, when they have guys who play for nothing. it’s sad really that that’s my state of mind after so many years of watching them lose players to free agency and or having to trade them before they lose them for nothing.

The_Silver_Stacker
4 years 5 months ago

The A’s will and rightfully so should ask for a kings ransom for Anderson or Gonzalez as they are cheap, young, and most importantly good.

Ferrariman
4 years 5 months ago

The value of top prospects, Gammons notes, is higher than ever before since teams are realizing that it isn’t cost-effective to sign free agents when those older players are entering a decline phase.

ok, who else was thinking : I took professional MLB teams THIS long to figure that out!?!?

NomarGarciaparra
4 years 5 months ago

Your logic seems sound at first…but have you thought about this? What if another team snatches up Gonzalez and signs him to an extension? Pujols would cost more with more years (and Theo may not be comfortable doing that), and Fielder is just not as good IMO. Fielder’s defense sucks, and how long will his out of shape physique hold up?

Mr. Pinches
4 years 5 months ago

Pujols would looks super sexy as the Boston DH.

Sure it might be an outrageous amount to pay a DH but imagine the longevity and production that he’d have at Fenway.

NomarGarciaparra
4 years 5 months ago

what makes you so sure about “longevity” and “production”? Pujols is good, but he isn’t God.

A few years ago, anyone would’ve said the same thing about A-Rod…yet we are already seeing a declining A-Rod, with 7 more years left on his contract.

raygunpunx
4 years 5 months ago

I’m still trying to figure out the comment of Boston having a strong minor league system. Once a Red sox shill always a shill. I always liked hearing about how Lars Anderson would be the answer to the the Yanks getting Tex.

MaineSox
4 years 5 months ago

I’m not defending Gammons, or saying that he isn’t a shill (he works for NESN after all, that’s kinda what he gets paid to do right?) and I think strong may have been the wrong word, but Boston’s farm system IS very deep. All of the guys between about 8 and 30 (organization ranking) are pretty much interchangeable as far as ranking goes. Most of their depth is in A – A+ and are high upside players, and around Boston there is a lot of excitement about what the guys on the farm COULD turn out to be, so there is a belief that in another year the progression of some of those guys could have them ranked somewhere around 8-10 again. But to say that right now Boston has a strong farm, especially as far as organizational rankings go, is definitely an overstatement.

MB923
4 years 5 months ago

I thought Gammons worked for MLB? Like on MLB Network and a writer on the MLB web page (can’t post the link but you know it’s MLB dot com) lol

notsureifsrs
4 years 5 months ago

he is employed by MLBcom, MLB Network, and NESN

woadude
4 years 5 months ago

No, it was more along the lines that Lars Anderson would net them the equivalent to Teix….as in they trade him to San Diego along with that stud Michael Bowden and some change and they were shocked San Diego wouldn’t take such a king’s ransom for AGon….Truth is in the end I am glad they had to give up such awesome players and can’t wait to hear about trades that will net them back Casey Kelly….Remember the ridiculous trade proposals to try to bring back Hanley?

Mr. Pinches
4 years 5 months ago

Really, why don’t you guys ever understand this point?

Gammons is employed(via NESN) by the Redsox organization. Therefore he is a representative of his employers.

raygunpunx
4 years 5 months ago

He also works for the MLB Network and all the years before that when he worked for ESPN.

Mr. Pinches
4 years 5 months ago

He also was a writer for the Boston Globe covering the Red Sox from 69 to about 86. Its where all his experience and connections/contacts were from. Get the whole story next time and it will make sense.

Gumby65
4 years 5 months ago

re: Juan Uribe story, Manny Mota is closing in on what, 75, and can probably still roll out of bed and line one up the middle in the clutch. Hell of a good man besides being the (temporary) All-time PH king.

4 years 5 months ago

What about former Oakland Athletic Barry Zito? He is left handed and is the Giants projected #5. The Giants are set with Lefties in both the rotation (with Sanchez and Bumgarner) and the pen (elite left-handed specialist Javier Lopez). Zito’s value couldn’t be any lower at this point. The asking price can’t be much.

fpsantangeloswingman
4 years 5 months ago

Zito’s contract has 3 yrs/$57 mill left on it. No team, even the Yanks, will take that on unless the Giants cover a good amount of the cash.

GoAwayNow
4 years 5 months ago

the angels might.

mrsjohnmiltonrocks
4 years 5 months ago

Oakland sure could deal a pitcher or two if they wanted to. They are good at turning their minor league pitchers into major league pitchers and they have good depth there. No if I were Oakland, I’d go after someone who could be a long term solution at 3rd base. I don’t think anyone has that player to deal though.

MB923
4 years 5 months ago

And formerly ESPN. So in other words, 4 parts of Red Sox Nation lol

MB923
4 years 5 months ago

Blaa, disqus failing as usual

4 years 5 months ago

Just wondering if the Yankees can wait a year and maybe try bringing up their prospects.

4 years 5 months ago

2012:
DH Lars Anderson/ Jed Lowrie (I really like him)
C Luis Exposito
1B Adrian Gonzalez
2B Dustin Pedroia
3B Kevin Youkilis
SS Jose Iglesias
LF Carl Crawford
CF Free Agent Signing/ Trade/ Josh Reddick
RF Ryan Kalish

SP Clay Buchholz
SP Jon Lester
SP Josh Beckett
SP John Lackey
SP Drake Britton/ Felix Doubront/ Stolmy Pimentel/ Michael Bowden

4 years 5 months ago

There is no way Oakland trades Anderson. I can see the A’s trading Gonzalez, however. But it would have to be for a top prospect, plus a decent/above player under contract for a while.

vonhayesdays
4 years 5 months ago

what Gammons spoke negatively about the Sox

woadude
4 years 5 months ago

More than that they could of had their pick of Albert, Prince or Agon with almost every big market having a first baseman, I still think they will snub Agon and weigh in on Pujols, shoot if I was running the Sox I would…Agon nets type A draft pick comp AND I have arguably the best first baseman in the game, Red Bird to Red Sox Albert.

YanksFanSince78
4 years 5 months ago

Not hatin’ but I can barely slip a sandy vjj reference in here. You slippin’ someone some payoff money to look the other way?

Green_Monster
4 years 5 months ago

Or, they wanted to contend, and didnt want Adrian to have a taste at the free agent market. Because they could end up with no one.
That’s the second biased comment you’ve posted in this thread.

I am Urban Legend
4 years 5 months ago

nope…if Im the Sox…I actually trade A-Gon for 1 good prospect and 2 lower level prospects come July. Bring up Lars Anderson to play 1B to hold them over for a few months.

soxfan0928
4 years 5 months ago

Really? Is Pujols really worth an extra $120mm over Gonzo? I don’t think so. Gonzo will be a 40 HR/130RBI guy in Boston through the age of 35 @ 160mm. Pujols would be a 42 HR/140 RBI guy in Boston for the first few years, with a decline over the last but of a 10 year contract @ 280mm. I take Gonzo.

YanksFanSince78
4 years 5 months ago

Yeah, I think Boston gets credit for their track record whereas the Yanks get doubts because of theirs. Think about it…all of the guys that are in their top 10-15 were all there the last two years except for Sanchez and whoever you want to fall in love with from the 2009 and 2010 drafts. But instead , they still had IPK, Austin Jackson, Arodys Vizcaino and Mike Dunn in the system. It’s all subjective. Would not be shocked to see guys like Ranuado, Lavarnway, Cecchini, Vitek and Ramos bring some luster to the organization.

4 years 5 months ago

who is going to pay what boston did for agon??? nobody thats who… they can wait for the F/A first basemen like boston should have done..

Mr. Pinches
4 years 5 months ago

does anyone outside the redsox organization even believe Lars is going to make it to the MLB level?!

I remember seeing something about this being the year the organization might move on from Lars if he flounders again.

woadude
4 years 5 months ago

Lars shows you he is the master of the ground out.

4 years 5 months ago

so you toss out best system in 15 yrs… then name things that occurred in the last 5 tops??? aren’t you missing 10 yrs of evidence there… i think a more accurate statement would be the braves have had the best system in the last 15 yrs yrs since chipper but thats just me!

z3rogs
4 years 5 months ago

I think he meant that this is the best Yankees farm system in the last 15 years, not the best in all of baseball.

MaineSox
4 years 5 months ago

It’s definitely a make or break year for Anderson, but if he shows a return to form and lives up to his potential I could see him getting a look as a DH, assuming they don’t re-sign Ortiz for cheap, or being traded to another team who needs a 1B. He struggled pretty bad offensively last year, but the potential is still there.

notsureifsrs
4 years 5 months ago

last year he hit .262/.340/.428 (.337 wOBA) in AAA, so i wouldn’t say he struggled badly. he’d probably have made the top 100 lists this year with that line if he were still hitting with the same power he was when he became a top organizational prospect (.211 ISO .430 wOBA in AA)

having said that, the power is a dealbreaker. until he rediscovers it, he can’t contribute much value to any big league club

MaineSox
4 years 5 months ago

I guess that’s really what I was thinking was the sudden power outage after his move to AAA. I’m still fairly optimistic about his chances; he has had similar struggles every time he has moved up in the system only to go on to dominate enough to force a promotion the next season. If he starts off strong again next season I think there is a decent chance he still makes it to the Majors, whether it is with Boston or elsewhere.

roomwithamoose
4 years 5 months ago

he’s looking for a reason to bash anyone saying something positive about the yankees, and trying to artificially make all yankees fans seem arrogant enough to think that they had best farm system in baseball year in and out since the big bang… too bad wished people would have rational discussions without perverting what someone else says to fit their prejudice.

woadude
4 years 5 months ago

The answer is yes, just as much as Fenway is going to help Gonzo, it will be even bettwe for Pujols, 42? you think he would have 2 more home runs than Gonzo? Pujols could probably hit one over the monster one handed, you absolutely go for Pujols, don’t kid yourself.

Mr. Pinches
4 years 5 months ago

Engrish Prease