Discussion: The Braves’ Pitching Surplus

In the first trade of the offseason, the Braves shed $5MM of payroll when they shipped Derek Lowe to the Indians and agreed to pick up $10MM of his $15MM salary for 2012.  It was a deal that gave GM Frank Wren & Co. some much needed breathing room, and one that couldn't have been made without a good deal of pitching depth.

Even without Lowe in the mix, Atlanta still has a rotation headlined by Tim Hudson and Jair Jurrjens.  There are plenty of young hurlers available in support, including Mike Minor, Julio Teheran, Randall Delgado , Arodys Vizcaino, Brandon Beachy, and Tommy Hanson.  While Atlanta would certainly like to avoid rushing their young pitchers into taking on major workloads, they might be better served by turning their pitching wealth into offense in 2012.

Wren claims to be content with his stockpile of arms and even though interest in Jurrjens is high, the GM is reportedly asking for a Zack Greinke-like return for the oft-injured 25-year-old.  While the Braves could come away with a solid package for Jurrjens, it's overly optimistic to put the youngster's value on a par with Greinke's. 

The Braves are looking to make a few upgrades in their lineup and would like to move on from shortstop Alex Gonzalez if they can.  They'd also like to land themselves a young center fielder as insurance if they can't retain Michael Bourn when he hits the open market after next season.  Wren would obviously love to keep Jurrjens as part of the starting five, but he can absolutely afford to flip him in order to improve elsewhere.


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387 Comments on "Discussion: The Braves’ Pitching Surplus"


thejackhammer
3 years 9 months ago

JJ to the Yankees for Nunez and a couple of low rated prospects

tomymogo
3 years 9 months ago

Nuñez and Gardner

jjs91
3 years 9 months ago

not worth it

tomymogo
3 years 9 months ago

Well Nuñez and Swisher +4.5 million

jjs91
3 years 9 months ago

still not worth it

tomymogo
3 years 9 months ago

Well then Montero, Nuñez, and Betances or Banuelos…..I mean if that’s unacceptable, then the answer is no. You can’t have him for free

iheartyourfart
3 years 9 months ago

trololol?

sports33
3 years 9 months ago

if only…

YanksFanSince78
3 years 9 months ago

DONE!!!! Nunez and one of the guys that cuts the infield grass. Let’s draw up the paperwork pronto!

PS- They DO prefer to be called “grounds keeper” for future reference.

JacksTigers
3 years 9 months ago

Is that why they get mad when I yell “Yo, high school dropouts, you missed a spot!”

rzepczynski
3 years 9 months ago

 there is a great young shortstop cost controlled good offense and defense in Toronto…. yunel esco….wait nvm

NorthOf49
3 years 9 months ago

I think Toronto could be a great fit, since they have CF prospect depth (Gose and Marisnick), and are looking for a front-of-the-rotation starter.

If Atlanta’s opening to trading Tommy Hanson, I think Hanson and Prado for Gose, Hechavarria, and a ML-ready guy like Eric Thames could work. 

crzycanuck
3 years 9 months ago

You’d be willing to trade Toronto’s future potential all-star and gold-glover Hecheverria, a speedster the team’s been looking for for years AND a 25-30 HR LF in Thames for a #4 SP and decent 2B??

Ty
3 years 9 months ago

It sounds like you’re probably overvaluing Toronto’s guys and undervaluing Atlanta’s here.

crzycanuck
3 years 9 months ago

No I’m saying the suggested trade would benefit Atlanta a lot more.  Would you give up 3 of your top prospects for Cecil and McCoy?

FrankTheFunkasaurusRex
3 years 9 months ago

Did you just compare Hanson and Prado with Cecil and McCoy? Seriously?

EdinsonPickle
3 years 9 months ago

I made that mistake once in 1996, and boy let me tell you things got ugly in a hurry.

jjs91
3 years 9 months ago

Hansons not a number 4 pitcher

grownice
3 years 9 months ago

 Your making us Jays fans look bad, like really bad. Please god stop the madness!

Andrew Ochs
3 years 9 months ago

Their blue jays fans, the biggest homers on the planet

NorthOf49
3 years 9 months ago

That’s correct. Hanson’s a very solid #2 starter when healthy, and Prado’s a very good stopgap second baseman.

Thames is never going to hit 25-30 HR, and I’m of the belief that they should give Travis Snider the LF job to start 2012. Hechavarria has great defense, but probably will never hit enough to be an above-average Major League bat. A lot of scouts prefer Marisnick to Gose, who probably has a higher BA/OBP ceiling with just as much power. They’re obviously all valuable prospects, but I’d trade them away for a player like Hanson.

3 years 9 months ago

Yes, Thames is a 25 hr guy.

Lunchbox45
3 years 9 months ago

not sure Hanson can be considered a #4 starter.. 

bravesdude
3 years 9 months ago

Me neither . He would be an ace or #2 starter on some teams and a #2-#3 starter on almost all the others .

Lunchbox45
3 years 9 months ago

at this point a solid 2/3 but he’s still young and can develop in to a legit #1..

not sure why the braves would consider moving him at this point/

bravesdude
3 years 9 months ago

If they do move Hanson , it would be obviously to improve the team and to let a cheaper more contract controlled option to take his place (Teheran/Medlen/Minor) . Hanson is a proven ML pitcher with a ton of upside . So a deal for him would have to be substantial and would have to overwelm Wren to be able to pull the trigger . But we are overstocked at the moment at that starting rotation position . So a deal is not impossible . And I think that he could be replaced internally fairly easily .

Lunchbox45
3 years 9 months ago

Hanson made league min this year, and won’t make much in 2012. don’t see how he can be replaced for that price 

bravesdude
3 years 9 months ago

TOUCHE !

Not for that price , probably not . But he could bring back great value in a trade that would offensively help the team and open a spot for one of our ML ready pitchers thats waiting their turn .

rundmc1981
3 years 9 months ago

Good luck even getting Wren to take that call about trading Hanson. Guy was the #1 pitching prospect in all of MLB and has proven himself to have top-tier stuff in a short amount of time. Of course, the downside are some injuries, but nothing that has shown long-term damage. 

Selling Hanson, even in this shallow SP market, would be selling low considering the previous upside Hanson has shown. Patience. Guy is young…and a ginger. It’s a hard-knock life.

Kitfisto007
3 years 9 months ago

Yeah. Plus, all three kids would have to perform Mmmbop on the mound. I mean, it’s only like 4 feet in diameter!

NEBravesfan33
3 years 9 months ago

Ridiculous. Hanson is a #1 starter when healthy. Not an ace, but definitely a #1. 

Lunchbox45
3 years 9 months ago

 that makes no sense.

3 years 9 months ago

A No. 1 IS an ace so you just contradicted yourself.

Colin Christopher
3 years 9 months ago

Not true. An “ace” is a rare commodity in MLB, a pitcher who you would “expect” to shut down your opponent most of the time: think Verlander, Kershaw, Halladay, Lincecum. I don’t know about you, but I would estimate that maybe 10-15 guys fit the bill. Every team has a #1 starter, but not every team has an ace. Some teams have more than one ace.
Example: Kansas City’s #1 SP this season was Luke Hochevar. The Mets’ #1 SP was Mike Pelfrey. Minnesota’s #1 SP was Carl Pavano. Baltimore’s was Jeremy Guthrie. Pittsburgh’s was Kevin Correia. Do you see anyone there you would consider an ace?
Example: Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels were Philly’s #2 and #3 SPs this season, but most people consider them aces.

Colin Christopher
3 years 9 months ago

Not true. An “ace” is a rare commodity in MLB, a pitcher who you would “expect” to shut down your opponent most of the time: think Verlander, Kershaw, Halladay, Lincecum. I don’t know about you, but I would estimate that maybe 10-15 guys fit the bill. Every team has a #1 starter, but not every team has an ace. Some teams have more than one ace.
Example: Kansas City’s #1 SP this season was Luke Hochevar. The Mets’ #1 SP was Mike Pelfrey. Minnesota’s #1 SP was Carl Pavano. Baltimore’s was Jeremy Guthrie. Pittsburgh’s was Kevin Correia. Do you see anyone there you would consider an ace?
Example: Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels were Philly’s #2 and #3 SPs this season, but most people consider them aces.

rundmc1981
3 years 9 months ago

Lowe was ATL’s (arguable) #1 most likely because he was paid the most (and thus, had the largest expectations), but no one dare called him Atlanta’s ace. Even he was named “Ace Lowe” legally, no one would call him that. 

Jeff
3 years 9 months ago

The only way he’s a #4 is if 1-3 are Maddux, Glavine, and Smoltz in the mid-90’s..

3 years 9 months ago

surely you jest

FrankTheFunkasaurusRex
3 years 9 months ago

wow.

edit: never mind, I just read your username

Brv Rocks
3 years 9 months ago

You are nuts if you think Tommy Hanson is a #4 pitcher!!!  He is the #2 pitcher on a VERY good Atlanta staff.  When Huddy retires he will be the #1 pitcher on the staff. 

bravesdude
3 years 9 months ago

And he would probably be the ace on half of the leagues other teams .

lam0jam0
3 years 9 months ago

Thames didn’t even hit 25 doubles last year

3 years 9 months ago

um, He had 24 doubles in 360 at bats as a rookie, Were you expecting Babe Ruth numbers the first year ?

FrankTheFunkasaurusRex
3 years 9 months ago

He/she stated a fact, that Thames didn’t hit 25 doubles last year. Why are you being defensive?

3 years 9 months ago

um, He had 24 doubles in 360 at bats as a rookie, Were you expecting Babe Ruth numbers the first year ?

Colin Christopher
3 years 9 months ago

If you see Tommy Hanson as a #4 SP and Prado as only a “decent” 2B, you need to stick with hockey.

Colin Christopher
3 years 9 months ago

If you see Tommy Hanson as a #4 SP and Prado as only a “decent” 2B, you need to stick with hockey.

Brv Rocks
3 years 9 months ago

First, Tommy Hanson isn’t going to be traded.  2nd, that isn’t close to enough for him IF they would trade him.  Hechavarria is nothing but an all-glove shortstop and the Braves already have Andrelton Simmons who is practically the same player.  Thames is nothing special.  Gose is the only decent piece of that trade proposal and he isn’t close to enough for Tommy Hanson, much less him AND Prado.

crzycanuck
3 years 9 months ago

I think it’s safe to say that the Blue Jays won the Gonzalez/Escobar trade.

paulyicecubes
3 years 9 months ago

At least until his attitude sours and he starts hitting like a 6 year old girl again.

Lunchbox45
3 years 9 months ago

he’s had 1 bad half of a season out of 5 full seasons. 

RationalSportsFan
3 years 9 months ago

Darn you and your facts.  Everyone knows Escobar is a clubhouse cancer who is going to stop trying any day now.

crzycanuck
3 years 9 months ago

Don’t think that will happen seeing it’s been over a year and a half since he’s been with the team.  Bautista also talked some sense into him by taking up the big brother role.

tomymogo
3 years 9 months ago

still depends on Pastornicky

NYBravosFan10
3 years 9 months ago

Don’t even bother. The Blue Jays fans on this website refuse to hear it. I’m just waiting until Escobar decides it’s time to start being a whiny little baby again and Pastornicky becomes an all-star then the jokes on them.

Lunchbox45
3 years 9 months ago

lol

slider32
3 years 9 months ago

They are like a cult! AA must be giving out the Kool Aid.

bravo_rob
3 years 9 months ago

Braves wanted his attitude gone. Wouldn’t have mattered what they got back. Gonzo provided pop that the braves needed last year and pastornicky is projected to hit the bigs this year and that’s the key to that deal. Toronto only wins this deal if Pastornicky flops. And then even the Braves first basemen weren’t risking breaking their wrists catching his lazy throws to first…

Lunchbox45
3 years 9 months ago

ofcourse it matters what they get back, thats completely absurd to suggest otherwise..

bravo_rob
3 years 9 months ago

 Bobby Cox wanted Escobar gone.  Like his way of doing things or not, once he decided a player didn’t play the game right (in his opinion) that player had no future in Atlanta.  Escobar was the epitome of what Cox didn’t like in a player.  Lazy, lack of focus, and no hustle… but he was still a good young SS.. of course they’re getting something in return for him, but don’t make the mistake of thinking if they would’ve shopped him around longer they get a better return.  They wanted the deal done.  Benching Escobar never reached him, so they shipped him somewhere else.

Encarnacion's Parrot
3 years 9 months ago

pastornicky is projected to hit the bigs this year

Maybe I’m reading this out of context, but every scouting report I’ve read has Pastornicky projected as a utility player, and isn’t the greatest fielder. Now while multiple scouts’ words aren’t end all be all, they do give you a fairly good idea of what to expect. He can hit for a decent average and not much else as of right now, and this is why he’s not ready for the MLB yet.

I do hope he turns out well cause I can’t stand losing sleep knowing how badly the Jays fleeced the Braves with that deal.

FrankTheFunkasaurusRex
3 years 9 months ago

Meh, I think Pastornicky and Hechavarria are almost comparable at this point. Hech can’t hit at all, while Pastornicky can at least hit for a good average, but Hechavarria’s the better defender. Comparable.

Encarnacion's Parrot
3 years 9 months ago

To play along with the comparison, I’d much rather have the fielder than the hitter. But their value is more or less on par with each other, yes.

FrankTheFunkasaurusRex
3 years 9 months ago

oh, I thought we were comparing Hechavarria and Pastornicky for some reason. Nevermind.

Encarnacion's Parrot
3 years 9 months ago

Hahaha. We can if you want, but my point was basically that Pastornicky is only a mentionable prospect because he reached AAA at a young age–most likely because their SS depth in the minors is kinda..  weak.

FrankTheFunkasaurusRex
3 years 9 months ago

Braves’ SS depth is weak? It’s not weak.

Jeff
3 years 9 months ago

Andrelton Simmons has real potentiall- Pastornicky will end up Replacing Uggla, or maybe forcing Uggla to move to 3B or  LF.

bravo_rob
3 years 9 months ago

As said the Braves have good SS depth.  Simmons is the future starter there, but Frank Wren has already said Pastornicky may be the starter at SS coming out of spring if they can’t find someone on a one year deal.  One year deal because they feel Pastornicky is close.  The Braves don’t need him to hit a ton, they just need him to hit better than Gonzalez did, and be good, not great defensively.  And if you think the Jays “fleeced” the Braves in the deal, keep telling yourself that.  No one in ATL misses Escobar.  Winning organizations put an emphasis on effort and hustle… and while in ATL Escobar lacked in both categories.  A team can only bench a player so many times before they give up on them and let a different team try to reach that player.

nictonjr
3 years 9 months ago

I 100% agree with what you said.  On the other hand, if Escobar was the Braves SS this year the Cardinals don’t win the WC. The Braves do.  Cards love the trade…

bravo_rob
3 years 9 months ago

Escobar would probably have helped the braves win more games last season, but he could’ve also been lazy on defense and cost the Braves some wins… and Freeman’s health.  One of the final straws to trading Escobar was a lazy throw to first he made that almost cost Glaus a broken wrist.  Not to mention with Uggla’s range up the middle having an above average SS defensively was huge last year for the Braves.  Escobar is a good player… he had just simply wore out his welcome in ATL.  If I’m GM of Toronto I do that deal too, and am happy with it.  For the Braves though, Escobar wasn’t a player they wanted to deal with anymore.

mikk402
3 years 9 months ago

Pastornicky has plus range just a weak arm. He may not hold at SS but would be a plus defender at 2B. He has solid OB skills and good speed. Won’t ever be elite, but from everything i’ve seen he should be a middle of the road SS

3 years 9 months ago

kinda sounds like a guy like brian roberts-like. but a ss, a better position. ill take that.

rundmc1981
3 years 9 months ago

Frankly, I do think TOR will win this deal. Pastornicky is the best option right now, but Simmons is maturing as a better ballplayer faster than Pastornicky – Pastornicky just closer to the bigs. Of course, that all can change once they get to ATL. I’d like to see Simmons in AAA in 2012 and see how he does.

FrankTheFunkasaurusRex
3 years 9 months ago

Cool, you can go discuss that at the Escobar-Gonzalez trade thread.

slider32
3 years 9 months ago

Who made that trade for the Jays?

scottandwtb
3 years 9 months ago

Tough to say. Any trade that sends Jo-Jo Reyes to another team is an automatic win.

Ty
3 years 9 months ago

Blue Jays seem like a natural fit if the Braves are willing to part with one of their better (i.e. non-Jurrjens) young pitchers – Hechavarria and Gose seem like two names that would come up in trade talks. 

Lunchbox45
3 years 9 months ago

why would they view Hech as an upgrade over Pastornicky?

Ty
3 years 9 months ago

Whoa, didn’t realize what a good year Pastornicky had at AA/AAA in 2011. Yeah, I guess they probably wouldn’t. I always thought he was just organizational filler… interesting. Hechavarria probably wouldn’t be a good fit after all then. Their CF depth still makes them a decent fit though. And if Prado is involved then the Jays’ surplus of decent/promising LF-types (Thames, Snider) could also be a fit for larger deal.

Lunchbox45
3 years 9 months ago

Would you really be willing to trade thames or snider and bank on one of thames or snider going in to next year?

Despite a surplus of bodies, realistically Jose is the only outfielder you can rely on going in to 2012.. Theres a lot of potential with Rasmus, Snider, Thames and Davis, but thats 4 huge question marks.

bravesdude
3 years 9 months ago

Jurjens could be had for prospects because of the surplus of ML ready pitchers the Braves have . Prado on the other hand would require someone in return who can play now in LF and maybe even a backup IF or 3rd baseman .

If Prado is traded , he would go with a prospect or two to get the Braves a LF or possibly a SS and a utility guy/backup 3RD baseman .

Colin Christopher
3 years 9 months ago

Clearly you haven’t read any of the reports where Frank Wren has stated that he is looking for a “Greinke-like” return for Jurrjens, and if not, they’ll just keep him. The fact that the Braves have a surplus of ML-ready pitching in no way changes JJ’s value to the rest of the league, and the Braves know that.

bravesdude
3 years 9 months ago

I have read them all . Just because I said prospects , that doesn’t mean a lower level . They would have to be ML ready or close . Of course the Braves having a surplus of pitching doesn’t change JJ’s value to the league . It changes his value to the Braves . The Braves have 7 pitchers right now (including Jurrjens) that are either already in the rotation or ready to take over a spot in the rotation . And thats not including Medlen . That fact alone makes Jurrjens expendable as long as the Braves can get something of value in return . And thats what I was stating .

bravesdude
3 years 9 months ago

I have read them all . Just because I said prospects , that doesn’t mean a lower level . They would have to be ML ready or close . Of course the Braves having a surplus of pitching doesn’t change JJ’s value to the league . It changes his value to the Braves . The Braves have 7 pitchers right now (including Jurrjens) that are either already in the rotation or ready to take over a spot in the rotation . And thats not including Medlen . That fact alone makes Jurrjens expendable as long as the Braves can get something of value in return . And thats what I was stating .

Colin Christopher
3 years 9 months ago

Clearly you haven’t read any of the reports where Frank Wren has stated that he is looking for a “Greinke-like” return for Jurrjens, and if not, they’ll just keep him. The fact that the Braves have a surplus of ML-ready pitching in no way changes JJ’s value to the rest of the league, and the Braves know that.

Brv Rocks
3 years 9 months ago

Not only to the Braves have Pastornicky but they also have Andrelton Simmons, who will be at AA next year.  They have no need for a shortstop prospect.

3 years 9 months ago

this doesn’t shock me that a yankee fan is the first person to comment… and they’re throwing up Nunez like he isn’t the heir apparent to Jeter

thejackhammer
3 years 9 months ago

Not a Yankee fan, its just what I could see happenin. I don’t think JJ is worth as much as Braves fans make him out to be and decent hitting shortstops are hard to come by, also Nunez could also be of service as a utility for backing up Chipper at third, he’d have alot of value to them.

StanleyHudson
3 years 9 months ago

Sure he’s a decent hitter but his fielding is atrocious. He made 20 errors in 122 games last year.

bravesdude
3 years 9 months ago

Even with his injury last year he was an AS and arguably the best pitcher in the NL at the AS break . He was in the discussion at the AS break for the CY Young award .

So yeah , we hold quite a bit of value for Jurrjens . We know what he is worth and what he is capable of being able to produce when healthy . And the health issues are not that big of a deal . It wasn’t a major injury , and he is only 25 this year . It’s not like his career is coming to an end and any injury that he has is gonna end it . He is under team control for two more years and is only gonna make about 5.5 million this year even with him being an AS last year .

Wren has good reason to want so much in return . And he won’t just give him away for practically nothing .

If we were to deal with the Yankees , I would want to see a package of Swisher+ whatever for Jurrjens+ whatever .

3 years 9 months ago

In reply to your major/minor injury statement correlating to age – See: Mark Prior. Anything is possible 😉

I don’t expect them to give him away for nothing, but I think Swisher is a little too high. As would be Gardner + Nunez (in reply to another suggestion). He has a lot of potential being so young and seems to now know how to not be a total schlub in the second half of the season. The torn meniscus thing could be a one-time deal, but the fact the braves put him on the 15 day at the end of the season is a little concerning but definitely could be nothing.

I say Nunez + free fielding/throwing lessons for a year, throw in Golson or Maxwell and this Yankee fan would be happy 😉

bravesdude
3 years 9 months ago

I don’t know for a fact cause I’m no doctor . But I can remember the Braves trying to rush him and Hanson back ASAP to help make the playoffs . There may be a chance that he was rushed back a little too early into his rehab starts to put him back on the DL . And I don’t think trading an AS pitcher at 25 years old and has two more years of team control (with this years salary around 5.5 million) for an OFer who hits 25-30 HRs a year and is under team control for one year at 10 million + is too much . For all me and you both knowknow , Swisher for Jurrjens straight up might be too much for the Braves side instead of the Yankees’ side . The question is how bad the Yankees want a good middle of the rotation pitcher and how much the Braves want a power bat with a good OBP . Only Wren and Cashman knows .

Jeff
3 years 9 months ago

They both really want that.

I think the fairest deal would be JJ+Prado+Hoover for Nunez+Gardner+ B+/A- position prospect from the Yankees.

Hoover can be converted back to a starter, and is a solid pitching prospect who isn’t really needed in Atlanta, and will likely end up a middle reliever just due to the glut everywhere else.

bravesdude
3 years 9 months ago

Switch Swisher with Gardner . Their contracts will pretty much cancel out each other which would help the Braves be able to afford Swish’s salary this year .

YanksFanSince78
3 years 9 months ago

I like Swisher and am not sure if I would make that trade but a Swisher + whatever for JJ + whatever is a reasonable suggestion worth considering.

bravesdude
3 years 9 months ago

Oh wow you’re considering . That’s an improvement .

YanksFanSince78
3 years 9 months ago

Said it yesterday. Maybe if you had read it you wouldn’t have this angst towards me. 

bravesdude
3 years 9 months ago

Hey guy , you started this crap by questioning my right to be able to express my freedom to post on a public site . I’ve got just as much right to post my opinion about the team I support (Braves) as you do your team . Don’t fault me cause you don’t feel the same way that us Braves fans do about our players . We obviously know more about them and what they are worth than you do .

If you want to offer your opinion on them , plaese feel free . I like hearing what others that are not Braves fans thinks of our players and prospects . But at least allow yourself to be somewhat openminded and be able to look at not just the negatives but also the positives .

You have stated in several remarks , as I have also about your team in retaliation , that we Braves fans only look at this and don’t look at that . But we also spend the entire season blogging about the same players and stats and concerns that alot of people on here that are not asociated with our fanbase , continue to either post false statements based on rumors or make statements saying that a player holds little value because he is able to pitch against a system that has flaws . Then when a blogger that may have actual information on that matter that has had many discussions on those subjects , tries to give an answer or his opinion based on what has already been discussed , you and some other people decide to take it upon yourselves to totally disregard what’s being stated because were just Braves fans and biased , and etc . It’s bullcrap .

I’m honestly a nice guy and like talking on these blogs , as long as it’s worthy of debating . But when someone starts to get a little immature like you did with me earlier , I tend to do the same thing . If you want to debate , which is really all this site is good for , then let us debate maturely and both be open minded and listen without criticism to each others opinions . I can respect you and your posts as long as you can respect mine .

And before you start pointing fingers at one teams fans , all MLB teams have a few fans that are a little of their rocker , so to speak , so Braves fans are no worse than Yankee , Cardinals , Phillies , Red Sox , or any other teams fans .

YanksFanSince78
3 years 9 months ago

I think the problem I have with “Braves’ fan” when discussing JJ is that they only seem to accentuate his positives and either ignore or minimize the negatives or concerns.

a) He was great last year but he also had a 3.99 FIP and a xFIP of 4.23.

b) He’s lost velocity on his FB for the 5 straight year and doesn’t miss many bats. Braves’ fan usually dismisses this and says “He’s throwing his FB slower for purpose, ya know, pitching to contact?”. Could be true but how is a scout to know this? Should they just ask him?

c) He has been unable to throw more than 152 innings in either of the last two years. Regardless of whether or not he does or doesn’t have any major problems with his arm, an inability to pitch innings expected as a #2 or #3 type is an issue when it’s #2 or #3 type compensation being sought.

d) His K% is below average, his GB% is below average and his LOB% last year was second to Cliff Lee only. There may be a bit of luck in play for him last year. MAYBE he found out a way to clamp down and pitch himself out of trouble or maybe he just got lucky? 

To his credit, he got the job done last year. However, if you base your opinion of him beyond ERA then you have to wonder if his 1st half is repeatable, especially if he leaves the NL.

bravesdude
3 years 9 months ago

It has been stated that the drop in velocity was indeed intentional on a few Braves Live shows this past season not to just pitch to contact but to also have better cpmmand of his pitches which resulted in a BB/9 of 3.2 to 2.6 from 2010-2011 . And he did at times throw 92-93 MPH last year . He just didn’t do it all the time . I guess when your ERA is 2.00 + and the 89 MPH fastball is getting it done to go along with the changeup and another offspead pitch , you don’t have to try and strike out every batter . And I have heard all about the ‘luck’ pertaining to Jurrjens , and it’s hogwash . It’s not like he is the only good pitcher to ever proove the advanced stats wrong about a guys pitcher value . There have been a few pitchers who have pitched well in there career without having to strike out 8-9 batters a game . It shouldn’t matter how a pitcher gets his outs , only that he is able to get them . And he is capable when he is healthy to pitch 200+ innings . His 2009 stats shows where he pitched 215.0 and 188.1 the year before .

YanksFanSince78
3 years 9 months ago

You are a perfect example of the braves’ fan I was referring to. It doesn’t matter how many innings he thru in 2009 and 2008. The concern I was addressing was that he’s been unable to do it the last 2 years. To dismiss that again shows that you are dismissing everyone elses concerns. As for the advanced metrics and your disregarding them…..fine. Others won’t.

bravesdude
3 years 9 months ago

A pure Yankee fan I see with the “I am always right” attitude . You give Jurrjens no credit at all . He is ONLY 25 . He WILL overcome the injuries . If he was 35+ and his last couple of years he spent being injured , then I would agree with your concern . But there is no since trying to convince a Yankee fan about anything . But if Jurrjens was a Yankee you would be telling me about how great of a pitcher he is no matter of is injuries or being a good pitcher with a good ERA even though he completely defies the odds against the advanced stats . But thats fine . I don’t care too much for New Yorkens with the “I believe what the paper and numbers tell me before I believe my own eyes” attitude .

Oh , and Yankees fans are just as shallow as any other MLB team fan , if not more so . Mainly because you have been taught to expect too much from your teams which has left most Yankee fans spoiled like little rich-kid brats .

There . I’m done venting . I feel better now .

NYBravosFan10
3 years 9 months ago

They don’t believe what every paper tells them just the New York Post

bravesdude
3 years 9 months ago

LOL . That’s too funny .

YanksFanSince78
3 years 9 months ago

I’ve spent the last 10 years in Cleveland, OH and Miami, FL so no, I don’t read the post. Nice try though.

Glad to see that conversations based on facts, numbers and an honest valuation of a talent gets thrown out the window because of emotions though.

bravesdude
3 years 9 months ago

So your are a proffesional scout ?

Good to know that your opinion means exactly 00000 .

YanksFanSince78
3 years 9 months ago

One doesn’t have to be a scout. Just have an open mind towards logical thinking. I’m farrrrrr from a sabermetrics guy but there are better ways to evaluate a player rather than ERA and Wins. Now some players do outperform their metrics but there isn’t enough of a history to determine which side of the fence JJ falls. But what I can plainly see is that he’s been unable to stay healthy for the past two years, has a declining FB which is sometimes a sign of trouble and if he moves anywhere else outside of the NL his lack of velocity and lack of ability to induce ground balls can end up being  a problem.

No one here is a scout and my word is far from law. You however have a real problem with having an open mind towards a new way of thinking. This “I know he’s great because I seen it with my own two peepers” argument won’t get you far. You amuse me though….

bravesdude
3 years 9 months ago

There are flaws to the advanced stats . So to be open minded towards something would require it to be a flawless system , which it is not .

And I am not gonna talk anymore about his drop in velocity , mainly cause you haven’t been listening to what some bloggers have already stated on that matter . If you had , you wouldn’t still be bringing it up in discussion .

3 years 9 months ago

if something had to be flawless for you to be open minded to it, your mind would be closed to pretty much everything.

YanksFanSince78
3 years 9 months ago

“He is ONLY 25 . He WILL overcome the injuries”.
Chein-Ming Wang says hello.

“But if Jurrjens was a Yankee you would be telling me about how great of a pitcher he is no matter of is injuries or being a good pitcher with a good ERA even though he completely defies the odds against the advanced stats”.

I don’t argue against logic. For instance, a healthy Joba and Hughes have value. However, I can’t and wouldn’t expect anyone to value them as if none of their negatives or question marks didn’t exist. And no I’m not comparing either to Jurrjens.

“Mainly because you have been taught to expect too much from your teams which has left most Yankee fans spoiled like little rich-kid brats” . 

What we expect is for our owners to put a quality product on the field each year. Speaking for myself, I know some Yankee fans are spoiled. However, I was a fan for all of those early 80’s and early 90’s teams and can speak without the colored lenses on.

Braves fans act as if every pitcher wearing a Braves uniform is something uber special and beyond being criticized though. But that’s ok……be special.

bravesdude
3 years 9 months ago

Guy you are full of it . You can’t tell me that you wouldn’t be using a Yankee pitchers upside or productiveness as a selling point and negating any injury or concerns . And as a GM , if I was one , I couldn’t allow myself to be closeminded as to only value them by their injury history . Especially if the guy I am interested in is only 25 . His career is just getting started . I think I would look more at how well he would perform if he could sustain his health throughout a whole year . Pitchers come back from injuries every year . It’s a pretty common thing . In fact , some pitchers come stronger and have better years after their injuries .

And as far as us Braves fans cherishing our pitchers are concerned . We have had tremendous pitching for the last several decades . And we have tremendous talent in pitching coming up through our system . Not all of our pitchers are great (Lowe , Kawakami….ugh) , but we do value the ones we know can produce like Jurrjens . He is better than what most give him credit for and better than the advanced stats give him credit for . He is not ‘lucky’ . I could see that crap standing if he were lucky for a game or two , but not a good half of the year .

Jeff
3 years 9 months ago

The thing with JJ’s velocity is that he’s using a pitch given to him by Venters, which has helped.  He can still dial it up on occasion, he just hasn’t had a need to do it.

I don’t think he’d be as good in the AL, but he’d still be pretty good- he is an injury risk until proven otherwise, but the injuries are leg not arm, which isn’t as bad.

mikk402
3 years 9 months ago

I don’t think of SS with a .317 OBP decent hitting. Pastornicky will get on base more than that. 

jjs91
3 years 9 months ago

maybe because he isnt a heir apparent to jeter.

YanksFanSince78
3 years 9 months ago

Google “Braves interested eduardo nunez” and maybe that will give you an idea as to why ppl throw Nunez’s name out their whenever there’s a post about Braves’ trade rumors and scenarios.

bravesdude
3 years 9 months ago

And still all I see is false rumors . We don’t want your trash . No thanks .

slider32
3 years 9 months ago

The Braves are the ones interested in Nunez!

bravesdude
3 years 9 months ago

The Braves are interested in everyone in MLB during the offseason . Just like all the other teams in MLB .

You have to also remember that this is the offseason . Until it is a done deal , signed and inked , everything is nother more than just a rumor .

Paul Dorio
3 years 9 months ago

It doesn’t matter, Escobar was a clubhouse cancer and nobody wanted him around anymore.

NorthOf49
3 years 9 months ago

He’s just a bit timid and doesn’t speak very good English – Atlanta may have been frustrated with his bat and sloppy defense in 2010, but that doesn’t mean he’s a cancer or anything.

Far from it. He’s been both lively and professional since coming to Canada.

bravesdude
3 years 9 months ago

It’s great that he has found a home somewhere else . He was not happy in Atlanta . He made that perfectly clear . And it had gotten to the point to where he would let it show in his game(offense/defense) . He is a gifted baseball player with a lot of talent . But if he would have stayed in Atlanta , the story would be the same . He would still be playing way below his skill/talent level until he got what he wanted , a trade elsewhere . Don’t hold it against Atlanta or the fans of the Braves to call him a ‘cancer’ cause that is a nickname of a person that he allowed himself to be called by the way he performed on the field and the effect that he was starting to have on his teammates . He gave Atlanta almost no other alternative but to give him what he wanted . Both teams are now better because of it .

RationalSportsFan
3 years 9 months ago

Everything you say is understandable.  But still, Atlanta should have been committed to diplomacy (i.e. doing whatever it takes to turn him around mentally while keeping him a Brave) over shipping the guy out.  That’s my same problem with how Larussa handled Rasmus.  You gotta do what it takes to keep premium, young talent around.

bravesdude
3 years 9 months ago

I believe that they offered every oppurtunity to Yunel to try and figure out what his problem was . He was and still is a young guy . Bobby Cox has always been known to stand up for his players and give the younger talent as much of an oppurtunity to show that they can perform . I think when all was said and done , the Braves , as a whole (players,coaches,FO) decided that there wasn’t anything else that they could do to try and help the guy except give him another chance to shine somewhere else .

Like I said , I’m happy for him . I hope he has a great career . But for whatever reason , he didn’t want to stay in Atlanta . And you can’t force a player to play %100 if he’s not happy with his circumstances . Cox even tried sitting him on the bench for a few games to try and give him a wake-up call and I think it just made things worse . So it is what it is .

jsmoltz29
3 years 9 months ago

One of the best examples I can think of in regards to his piss poor attitude was the incident where he disagreed with being issued an error and pointed at the press box and mouthed obscenities. 

3 years 9 months ago

And this really bothered you?

If Escobar were to do that as a Jay most fans would probably get a good laugh out it.

bravesdude
3 years 9 months ago

It was a sign of unprofessionalism and immaturity on his part . He was pointing the finger somewhere else other than where it should’ve been pointed , at himself .

clvclv
3 years 9 months ago

“Cancer” may be a bit harsh, even though things were definitely trending that way before the deal. Will leave it with the mention that not only was the fact that Gonzalez received a standing ovation from players and coaches when he entered the clubhouse  reported in the AJC, they made sure to mention it during the tv broadcast that night.

slider32
3 years 9 months ago

Bobby was too old school for Escobar, it’s like putting Teddy Roosevelt with Obama.

Lunchbox45
3 years 9 months ago

doesn’t change the fact that they should have gotten more for him. justify away though

bravesdude
3 years 9 months ago

I’m sure that the other GM’s knew of his apparent attitude problems and may not have wanted to take a chance on him . Either that or Wren took what he felt was the best package that he could get for Yunel’s value at the time .

Geaux_Braves
3 years 9 months ago

He was still a a great young talent playing a premium position. If other GM’s knew of his apparent attitude problems, they still would have paid more than what the Jays did. I think Wren looked at Gonzo’s bat at the time and stellar D and thought he had a steal if he could get a solid SS prospect to boot in hopes of Escobar being an actual cancer(something I never labeled him).

bravesdude
3 years 9 months ago

I don’t think Gonzo was the main piece in that deal from the Braves point of view . And if Wren could have gotten more for Yunel then I’m sure he would have . No one actually knows what Yunel’s deal was . But it was affecting the team as whole and the only solution was to give the kid what he wanted , somewhere else to play . You just have to cut your losses sometimes and take what you can get for him . And I honestly think that both teams are better after that deal . Obviously the Braves miss his talents , but only if he is willing to play up to his potential . And if we would have kept him , I don’t think he would have .

Paul Dorio
3 years 9 months ago

They dealt with him for years. Not just 2010. He jogged to first on popups, refused to talked to media, and refused to learn the english language. He made obscene gestures to the scorer when they ruled against him, and constantly fought with Bobby Cox. It was time for him to leave.

Paul Dorio
3 years 9 months ago

Not to mention on balls that were hit in the gap with decent height (which were few and far between), were in his mind no doubters over the fence. So when they hit the wall he’d have a sliding double that most players would be on their way to 3rd on.

ColoradoBravesFan
3 years 9 months ago

The justification is that the Blue Jays had to take Jo Jo Reyes in the deal.   :o…

ColoradoBravesFan
3 years 9 months ago

The justification is that the Blue Jays had to take Jo Jo Reyes in the deal.   :o…

RationalSportsFan
3 years 9 months ago

He seems to be doing just fine in Toronto.  Maybe Atlanta’s clubhouse is next to a nuclear waste runoff pool, because he seems to be cancerless now.

Paul Dorio
3 years 9 months ago

I’ll say it again… “They dealt with him for years. Not just 2010. He jogged to first on popups, refused to talked to media, and refused to learn the english language. He made obscene gestures to the scorer when they ruled against him, and constantly fought with Bobby Cox. It was time for him to leave. “

slider32
3 years 9 months ago

It’s like Henley with the Marlins, he’s no Jeter, you can only put up with that kind of player for so long. Sometimes the player matures and sometimes they don’t like with Manny. The main thing is you have to know what you have and if it’s Manny you keep him and put up with him to win championships.

NYBravosFan10
3 years 9 months ago

have you seen the area Turner Field is located? Wouldn’t surprise me…

bravesdude
3 years 9 months ago

I disagree . It’s just off of the interstate which makes it accesible . And it’s just a ways out of the business district which makes it a little easier to get to with all the traffic in Atlanta .

3 years 9 months ago

I wonder if they would really go into the season as they are now. If JJ or someone else has a good first month or 2 they can then go out and get the return they seek.

AirmanSD
3 years 9 months ago

That is a possibility, but at the same time oft-injured isn’t an inaccurate word to use for him for a reason. Thats the reason currently his value isn’t to the level that the Braves would like, but its hit or miss with his health. For the Braves if they do move him it has to make sense in the long run, either filling an upgrade at SS or long term replacement in CF.

3 years 9 months ago

ya he has been labeled. but maybe more would be possible if they can get a team with an injury. another wainwright injury for a contender. look at the giants and zack wheeler.

AirmanSD
3 years 9 months ago

That is true, but it only works if he can stay healthy himself. That is the point, another injury might just kill his value all together. Plus currently he has two years of team control left, the same amount that Greinke had when he was dealt, so any delay makes that request even more absurd.

3 years 9 months ago

Jurrjens to CIN for Chris Heisey and Todd Fraizer seems like a fair deal for both sides.

bravesdude
3 years 9 months ago

I’m not Wren , but I like that deal . I like Heisey . Other Braves bloggers are bigger on Stubbs . But his K totals scare me . Heisey looks like if given a full season he could produce 20-30 HR’s a season with a decent batting average and OBP . Don’t know much about his defense . But I do like his offense .

slider32
3 years 9 months ago

That sounds like a great trade to me, Heisey will do well with the Braves, and Frazier is a gammer ever since he played on the little league world series team. I’m not sure Jurjens will be the pitcher Cinncy is looking for.

mikk402
3 years 9 months ago

I’ve heard something like JJ for Yonder Alonso

slider32
3 years 9 months ago

The Reds should trade Alonzo and Grandel for Sheilds who is much better than Jurgens.

bravesdude
3 years 9 months ago

I think they would be more interested in Heisey . Alonso is a good talent but he is LH and the Reds value Alonso more so than Heisey .

Pete
3 years 9 months ago

See Greinke does this thing called striking hitters out, it means you are very good at pitching. 

Jurrjens does not do that. 

They are not worth equal value in a trade, anytime ever.

Lunchbox45
3 years 9 months ago

while I agree that Grienke is a far superior pitcher.. The royals didn’t get an overwhelming return, the package sent for Grienke would probably be pretty fair to offer for JJ

braves aren’t comparing JJ to Grienke, just the deal for Grienke

3 years 9 months ago

Jurrjens is worth one top prospect, thats about it

3 years 9 months ago

true. but u could easily make an argument he should have started the all-star game this past year. when healthy he can be a very solid #2. all at age 25

bravesdude
3 years 9 months ago

Jurrjens and Greinke are two different pitchers . Greinke strike out his batters to get outs while Jurrjens fools the batters just enough to let them get themselves out . Just because they have different pitching styles does not make them differ that much in value , although I agree that they do a little  . With that being said , I believe that Jurrjens still has a lot of value for any team . He’s young with 2 more years of team control and was an AS and arguably the best pitcher in the NL at the AS break .

Southgadawg
3 years 9 months ago

You are right, and we Brave fans realize that Greinke and Jurrjens are not of equal value because Jurrjens is much more valuable over the long haul than Greinke. Jurrjens can carry a team at any given time with his pitching. Plus he is a good clubhouse presence and a very much “team” player rather thana “I am the STAR” player.

BaseballLogic_Braves
3 years 9 months ago

Yes, strikeout pitchers are good. But just because you aren’t a strikeout pitcher means nothing. Jurrjens uses his lower velocity to his advantage like Tom Glavine. He certainly wasn’t a huge strikeout pitcher, but he’s one of the all-time greats. I’m not comparing Jurrjens to Greinke, nor am I comparing him to Glavine. I’m simply saying that you are jumping to the conclusion that because Jurrjens can’t strikeout 9 batters a game every time that he’s a bad pitcher.

kevb197731
3 years 9 months ago

Cubs are looking to upgrade pitching, and they are looking to sign Cespedes or Soler. If they can sign either I think they should part with Jackson or Szcur in a trade along with someone like Byrd for a Jurrjens. Atlanta is looking for a right handed bat with power, would love to see the Cubs eat a huge portion of Sorianos contract and ship him the Braves, but I know that won’t happen.

Cory Taylor
3 years 9 months ago

Theo sounds like he could blow up the MLB to improve the farm. I’m surprised we haven’t anything about the Braves interest in Castro and/or Byrd

slider32
3 years 9 months ago

Theo might trade Castro for a few of those young pitchers like Delgado or Teheran, Beachy,Vizciano.

bravesdude
3 years 9 months ago

I think maybe Castro for Jurrjens+Hoover and maybe one more lower level prospect MIGHT be fair .

nictonjr
3 years 9 months ago

 Castro for Beachy, Pastornicky and something.   No way Theo trades his best player for someone who’s made 43 starts over the last 2 seasons.  Everyone says JJ is a 1/2.  Why is his arbitration value ~$5 mil???   Shouldn’t it be closer to Timmy Lincecum’s???

bravesdude
3 years 9 months ago

I think it is called a paygrade or pay scale . I don’t think they can just increase a player’s salary 10 mill from one year to another during their arbitration years .

nictonjr
3 years 9 months ago

Arbitration is more of a comparison thing.  For instance, Clayton Kershaw made $.500 mil, 500K, this season.  His first year estimate, on this website, is $8.4 mil.  Jurrjens second year arbitration estimate is $5.1.  Matt Garza’s second year was $5.95 mil.  He compares to be ~16% lower than Garza and has big injury questions.  If Wren is waiting for a Greinke deal, JJ will either be on the Braves opening day roster or the Braves DL to start the season…

bravesdude
3 years 9 months ago

Why would he be on the DL starting the season ? He was close to being ready to come back into the rotation at the end of the regular season . Plus he has the entire off season to rehab if needed .

bacboris
3 years 9 months ago

WHAT? You want to go all in for a pitcher with these kind of peripherals? You do know what kind of defense the cubs have right?

As for the hypothetical if the cubs sign…; Brett Jackson can help for many years to come. Whether any international signing occurs doesn’t change that, mostly because of how barren the system is when it comes to outfield prospects. This proposed trade provides a great year of Soriano, Colvin, and Byrd (with Johnson on the bench and what, I guess in your hypo Cespedes in double A). UGLY with a capital U.

sports33
3 years 9 months ago

Yes because Adam Lind, E5 (E3 now?) et al all missed time with broken wrists this year. Oh wait…

EDIT: This was in reply to bravo_rob’s comment.

NYPOTENCE
3 years 9 months ago

A blue-chip prospect and a couple major-league ready prospect should net Jurrjens, however, in this thin pitching market  I expect the Braves to come real close to the Royals’ haul for Greinke and Betancourt.

rundmc1981
3 years 9 months ago

Honestly, I don’t think that at all. I don’t expect to see 5 players be sent over for JJ, but all these reports that ATL will part with JJ or Prado for platoon players like Nunez or Seth Smith is ridiculous. Every other teams expect the same return as Wren expects with a pitcher coming of an all-star season for an all-star caliber team that is cost-controlled. We’re benefitting off JJ being injury-prone during his arbitration years, because it’s limiting his stats and thus, his price.

Shawnthemon
3 years 9 months ago

I would love to get some pitching from Atlanta, being a Jays fan

Jurrjens/Hanson for Hech, Thames/Snider, and a pitching prospect

Thats probably a little under what would be fair, being the jays arent giving enough, but something around that package

Lunchbox45
3 years 9 months ago

a package for hanson will be double compared to a package for JJ..

Hech, Thames and a pitching prospect for hanson is beyond laughable

Shawnthemon
3 years 9 months ago

I meant to write beachy, and yea I agree with you, Gose would have to be in a package for Hanson, along with 2 more of our top prospects

FrankTheFunkasaurusRex
3 years 9 months ago

Beachy would still cost a lot.

Shawnthemon
3 years 9 months ago

Hech, Thames and a prospect is a lot

FrankTheFunkasaurusRex
3 years 9 months ago

Depends on the prospect. No way Hech + Thames gets it done.

commenter3346
3 years 9 months ago

For a good young, cheap pitcher who’s under control till 2017?

bravesdude
3 years 9 months ago

Still not enough . We value hanson and Beachy even more than we value Jurrjens . And we value Jurrjens quite a bit . He was an AS you know ?

Lunchbox45
3 years 9 months ago

hech and thames isn’t much at all.

commenter3346
3 years 9 months ago

Beachy would cost a ton as well…

tomymogo
3 years 9 months ago

Hanson is off limits

Jeff
3 years 9 months ago

He shouldn’t be.  I think Beachy could be as good as Hanson.

I’m fine with keeping JJ instead of Hanson if teams try to short-change for JJ.

Brv Rocks
3 years 9 months ago

Thames or Snider have very limited trade value.  One of them packaged with a good prospect could get Jurrjens I suppose.

Tommy Hanson would cost a LOT more than the Blue Jays would be willing to pay.

slider32
3 years 9 months ago

No team wants those players in a trade!

tomymogo
3 years 9 months ago

I like Johnny Peralta. Tigers are interested in Prado, I’d throw in Jurrjens for a good package. Something like Jair Jurrjens and Martin Prado for Johnny Peralta, Delmon Young, and Andrew Oliver.

Prado and JJ will earn a combined 9.5 million, and Peralta and Young earn a combined 11.8 million, so the Braves are adding 2.3 million and fixing their SS and LF issues. I’m not crazy about Delmon Young but hey, Johnny Peralta would be a very good pick, and Andrew Oliver has some potential. Peralta can also play 3B, and has a 6 million club option for 2013, that boldes well for ATL for when Chipper retires. And getting Peralta, will allow the Braves to move him to 3B if Chipper hits the DL, and call up Pastornicky. Oliver could be a useful trade chip during the season if they wanted.

For Detroit this makes sense because they improve their rotation and get a quality 2B or 3B. They can platoon Rayburn and Kelly in LF. Obviously this means they need to sign a SS, like Jose Reyes or Jimmy Rollins, which would be perfect for them since they need a leadoff hitter anyway.

ATL’s new lineup
CF Michael Bourn
3B Chipper Jones
C   Brian McCann
2B Dan Uggla
1B Freddy Freeman
SS Johnny Peralta
RF Jason Heyward
LF Delmon Young
Pitcher

DET’s new lineup
SS Jose Reyes
CF Austin Jackson
1B Miguel Cabrera
DH Victor Martinez
RF Brennan Boesch
2B Martin Prado
C   Alex Avila
3B Brandon Inge
LF Don Kelly/Ryan Rayburn

Shawnthemon
3 years 9 months ago

Braves wouldn’t do this, Prado for Peralta is fair, but uneeded. Young and Oliver for JJ is just bad imo, The Braves should be going for high ceiling hitting prospects, in CF and SS

tomymogo
3 years 9 months ago

Prado for Peralta wouldn’t be enough for the Tigers

JacksTigers
3 years 9 months ago

You had better throw something else in there if you want Peralta for Prado. How about Young, Peralta, Smyly, and Oliver for Prado, Jurrjens, and Alex Gonzalez.

Jeff
3 years 9 months ago

A-Gon’s a FA.  I’d definitely be interested in Peralta+prospect for JJ+Prado.

The Braves have a ton of good players, but few great ones.  I’d trade two good for one very good/great.

Brv Rocks
3 years 9 months ago

That would be a terrible trade for the Braves.  They would be giving up an all-star starting pitcher and an all-star starting 2B for an all-bat shortstop coming off of a career year, a horrific outfielder, and a prospect.  Blech!!

tomymogo
3 years 9 months ago

I’m not crazy about Young, but Peralta is very good. JJ and Prado have hurt their trade value with injuries.

Can you be certain that Prado will bounce back to his 2010 form? And JJ has pitched 43 games in the last two seasons, and finished injured both of the last two seasons. 

Jeff
3 years 9 months ago

Prado’s injury was a staph infection.  That saps you for a few months, but doesn’t hurt you long-term.  He’ll be fine.

JJ’s a bigger risk, but his injuries are leg not arm, there’s a good chance he’ll overcome his injury bug.

JacksTigers
3 years 9 months ago

Put Prado 2nd, Jackson 9th, and push Avila, Inge, and Kelly/Raburn up one.

Jeff
3 years 9 months ago

Prado isn’t a good 2-hole hitter.

jhawk1000
3 years 9 months ago

Prado is a 2 hole hitter when he’s not hitting behind a “true” lead off man. He hit really well until we acquired Bourne and he had to be more patient to allow Bourne a chance to steal a bag. Point is if a team has a true lead off guy Prado is better suited in the 6-7 hole, if you’re making due without a base stealer in the lead off spot, then Prado makes very good contact and moves guys along.

3 years 9 months ago

I think the Braves should sign someone like reed johnson to back up the outfield, start tyler pastorniky, and sign a left-handed shortstop veteran to platoon with pastorniky/back-up SS and 3rd. Lets not make a trade until mid-season when contending teams will be desperate for Pitching, than we will haul in a large package! Oh, yeah, and go WIN A WORLD SERIES!

guydavis
3 years 9 months ago

Is Pastorniky ready to start in the majors and if so, would you really want to platoon him? Can’t see that being good for his development.

3 years 9 months ago

i’m not sure how that really works, but i would imagine tyler pastorniky would benefit from watching and learning from a veteran about every other game.

3 years 9 months ago

Twins’ GM Terry Ryan won’t make this deal, and maybe ATL wouldn’t either, but I’d trade Ben Revere for Martin Prado. Helps both teams out. ATL gets a good, young CF and MIN gets a decent 2B/LF (depending on where the Twins would want him). I think it’s a better deal than the rumored D.Young/Prado trade with the Tigers.

3 years 9 months ago

Sounds like a good deal for both teams if ATL didn’t have Bourne playing CF. Revere wont hit enough to justify playing LF fulltime 

3 years 9 months ago

“They’d also like to land themselves a young center fielder as insurance if they can’t retain Michael Bourn when he hits the open market after next season.”

Revere would be that insurance. Not to mention a defensive sub and pinch runner. Though, an outfield of Revere, Bourne and Heyward would be sick defensively if they did intend to use Revere in LF…

bravesdude
3 years 9 months ago

Chipper’s and the rest of Lowe’s !0 mill will be off the books next year . That’s over 20 mill just with them two alone that we will have to make sure our CF spot is secure . If we like Bourn enough to keep him , then we can resign him with what extra $$ we will have .

3 years 9 months ago

I understand that, I do, but re-signing players is never a sure thing. 

bravesdude
3 years 9 months ago

No , but there are just a few FA options in 2013 that the Braves could look at . But they would have the money to certainly compete with any other team for Bourn . I guess it is just how bad they wanted him and if he (Bourn) wanted to come back .

roberty
3 years 9 months ago

It works for me.  Bourn will probably sign a sizable FA deal next year, and it probably wont be with the Braves, so a guy like Revere would be great as a 4th OF next year, and a full time CF in 2013.  Considering the Braves also have Matt Diaz and Eric Hinske, it would be nice to have a defensive first OF to compliment them.  Plus I just really like Revere. 

wait_HOWmanyrings
3 years 9 months ago

what would the braves be willing to offer for colby rasmus?

FrankTheFunkasaurusRex
3 years 9 months ago

Heyward-Rasmus flip?

wait_HOWmanyrings
3 years 9 months ago

whoa, if i was the bluejays i would take that in a second

3 years 9 months ago

pretty sure hes kidding 

FrankTheFunkasaurusRex
3 years 9 months ago

Wasn’t really kidding. It is a pretty lopsided deal (for the Jays) though.

wait_HOWmanyrings
3 years 9 months ago

seriously though, i think rasmus would be a good center for a deal

3 years 9 months ago

Did Rasmus’ value go up or something?

wait_HOWmanyrings
3 years 9 months ago

what, a rasmus for jurjenns deal wouldn’t be so bad, would it?

Jeff
3 years 9 months ago

Rasmus+ something maybe.

3 years 9 months ago

doubt it. jays need rasmus more than jurrjens, who probably profiles as a 3-4 type in the AL East. i dont think rasmus`stock has fallen that low.

BaseballLogic_Braves
3 years 9 months ago

I know Heyward had a horrible year, and we all couldn’t bare to watch him weakly ground out every at-bat, but that doesn’t mean you trade him for Colby Rasmus. He’s gonna be good, we just have to be patient. As hard as that is to say.

FrankTheFunkasaurusRex
3 years 9 months ago

I know, I’m a Blue Jays fan.

bbxxj
3 years 9 months ago

I believe Wren is looking for and will find a similar package to what he got for Vazquez. By that I mean a solid young veteran position player to play LF or a SS like what they hoped to get in Melky, a high upside prospect they love who could be a few years away like Arodys Vizcaino and then some decent filler like Dunn was.

It’s really hard to tell who will give up the most for him as most teams could stand to add a pitcher like Jurrjens but that’s roughly what I think he will be dealt for.

roberty
3 years 9 months ago

It seems like Wren doesn’t make a move unless a power lefty reliever is changing hands. 

3 years 9 months ago

striking out does not mean a pitcher is better. is greinke really better than a healthy jurrjens? look at their career numbers. 

was hideo nomo better than greg maddux just because he struck out way more batters on average?

i honestly don’t think people give jurrjens full credit for his game. injuries are the only thing that has stopped him from being considered an ace

3 years 9 months ago

“striking out does not mean a pitcher is better. is greinke really better than a healthy jurrjens? look at their career numbers.”
Umm, wtf is going on today?

3 years 9 months ago

Ummmm

bravesdude
3 years 9 months ago

So I guess if you don’t strike out 8 or 9 batters a game , but only manage to give up a little better than 2 runs a game , the you still suck because you didn’t strike out a batter an inning . This theory that a pitcher has to strike out a bunch of hitters to suceed is ridiculous .

3 years 9 months ago

He said to compare their stats.. Greinke is a true ACE. Jurrjens is a good 3/4 starter 

bravesdude
3 years 9 months ago

Correction ….. Greinke for one year was a true ACE . And even in his CY Young year only won 16 games . Which is the most games he has ever won in a season . So yeah , he was an ACE for one year in a horrible Royals starting rotation . He would be the Braves #3/4 starter , maybe #2 .
 
And take away that 2009 season , and his best other year in ERA (which is a good way in my own opinion to determine how good a pitcher is because it gives reference to how well that pitcher did in limiting runs allowed by him) was 3.47 .

BLEACHER_CREATURD
3 years 9 months ago

Really, wins? So felix wasn’t a true ace when he got his Cy Young either I suppose. What did he win that year, 13 games or something…?

lmao. You should really stop posting because you’re either drunk, or just really have no idea what you’re talking about. Greinke would be the number one pitcher for pretty much every team in the majors except like 3 or 4 of them.

bravesdude
3 years 9 months ago

You are about as ignorant as your username . I think I did say that he was an ACE for that one year . He hasn’t put numbers even close to that since . And yes , Felix is an ACE . Regardless of his win totals , he puts up a respectable ERA year in and year out . Your comparing a great pitcher in Felix with a good pitcher in Greinke that had one great year and has been a little better than average ever since .

Teams JUST in the NL that Greinke would NOT be the ACE of the staff .

Phillies=Hallady , Lee both better options(Hamels may be a better option)
Braves=Hudson better option , (Hanson may be better option)
Nationals=Strasburgh better option
Marlins=Johnson better option
————————————————————————————-
Cardinals=Carpenter better option
Brewers=they already have Greinke , no better option
Reds=Cueto pitched well and could be possibly at least as good of an option
————————————————————————————-
Dodgers=Kershaw definitely better option
Giants=Lincecum , Cain better options
Diamonbacks=Kennedy arguably better option(we’ll find out more on him this next year)

I’ll just stop right there . Go to ESPN and look at JUST the NL pitching stat rankings . Greinke was ranked the 34th best ptcher and had three Brewer starters ranked higher than he was . He is not an ACE .

leachim2
3 years 9 months ago

Strasburgh’s unproven. Cueto is not better than Greinke. Neither is Hudson. Kennedy is debatable. Johnson is always hurt. The only ones that are definitely better are Kershaw, Lincecum, and Halladay. 

bravesdude
3 years 9 months ago

I seriously doubt that Greinke is better than Lee , Hudson , Cain . And Hammels be be better at this point than Greinke is also . And those were just from the NL . I could go AL and say Sabathia , King Felix , Verlander , and so on and so on .

Like I said , Greinke was great for one year . Other than 2009 , he has been fairly good since . But there are quite a few numerous better options out there that are either already in the league or are coming up into the league(Cueto,Kennedy,Hanson,Strasburgh) .

leachim2
3 years 9 months ago

I was using the aces you mentioned. I would take Cain and Lee over him, but not Hamels. He and Hudson are probably about even.

guest_54
3 years 9 months ago

Some food for thought.

This is an excerpt from a recent Atlanta Journal Constitution article about Hudson having back surgery:”Over the past two seasons, Hudson went 33-19 with a 3.02 ERA and .232 opponents’ average in 443-2/3 innings. For comparison, Phillies star Cliff Lee was 29-17 with a 2.77 ERA and .234 OA in 445 innings during that two-year span, and Giants ace Tim Lincecum was 29-24 with a 3.08 ERA and .232 OA in 429-1/3 innings.”While I understand that win-loss record and ERA are definitely not the best way to judge a pitcher, opponent’s average is a pretty good indicator of a pitcher’s effectiveness. Not saying that these stats “prove” Hudson to be an ace, but it should at least offer some evidence that he belongs in the conversation.

YanksFanSince78
3 years 9 months ago

Yes but when a pitcher strikes out a below average amount of hitters, doesn’t induce many GB (43% or below past 3 seasons), has had a FIP and xFIP of 4.00 or better the last two seasons and would be moving from what most consider to be a pitcher friendly park, then yeah, those things do matter to anyone looking to acquire him.

bravesdude
3 years 9 months ago

So your saying that Greg Maddux , because the advanced stats didn’t agree with him either , was not a good pitcher . Thats one reason that the system that they use for the advanced stats they have out now I think need some work . They tell you that a pitcher should pitch a certain way to be sucessful . No matter how he gets the outs , if he doesn’t get them the way that the stats says he needs to get them , then he has no value as a pitcher .

We have had this discussion on our team blog , and there will always be acceptions to the peripheril stats or advanced stats that some of these guys come up with .

YanksFanSince78
3 years 9 months ago

Really? Is that what you come back with?

When did I ever say that you HAD to strike out a lot of ppl just to be successful? What I DID say was

a) His velocity has dropped down 4 years in a row (and was down around 89 mph last year).

b) If you don’t have velocity then it helps to have a high GB%, which JJ hasn’t had over the last 2 years.

c) His ERA doesn’t match his FIP and xFIP.

d) He might have been somewhat lucky last year.

e) He hasn’t pitched 200 innings in over 2 years.

Mr. Maddux

-While he was never a hard thrower he ALWAYS had a high GB% (aound 50% for his career).

-In his prime had a FIP or xFIP below 3.50 for like 10-13 years straight.

-As for durability, Maddux had 21 straight years of 194 IP or better.

So to sum it up, Maddux’s performance and his FIP’s and xFIP may not have been mirror images but they are ALL within the same range of each other.

I never said JJ wasn’t a good pitcher. What I DID say, along with others, is that his performance doesn’t match his peripherals and that there are legitimate concerns about whether he can stay healthy and whether he can produce up to the standard that you and others are valuing him. “Braves fan” is valuing him as if he’s a #2 type and others disagree. 

bravesdude
3 years 9 months ago

Braves fans see the kid pitch every year and every game . We know how good he was last year . Luck didn’t get him an AS invitation . The guy know how to pitch with what he has . And the velocity thing is getting old . Many bloggers including myself have tried many times to explain that his drop in velocity was done by him on PURPOSE . It’s amazing how much of a concern it is when the guy just came off the best year he’s had and was in the talk for the CY Young at the AS break . Velocity is NOT a concern with him . The only concern with him would be the injury . And I don’t think that it will be a huge factor with him . He has a lot of career ahead of him .

The Braves had one of the better starting rotations last year . And Jurrjens carried that rotation the first half . He is , obviously when healthy , a definite #2/#3 on most teams and a #1 on some others that need pitching .

Jeff
3 years 9 months ago

Turner field is pretty neutral.

Brv Rocks
3 years 9 months ago

Jair Jurrjens isn’t the #2 pitcher for the Braves.  That would be Tommy Hanson.  In fact, I would call Jurrjens the #4 pitcher on the Braves; behind Hudson, Hanson, AND Beachy.

3 years 9 months ago

could not disagree more. beachy and hanson barely could last 5 innings in a game. jurrjens was shut down all until injuries, 1.87era first half and he always pitched 7-9innings. i would put jurrjens as the number 2. i still do see huddy as #1 though. 

in a year or two, beachy and hanson could very well be aces. but they just don’t seem efficient enough to me yet. hanson would strike out 10+ but could hardly make it out the fifth inning

bravesdude
3 years 9 months ago

I sir agree with you . Jurrjens was the number 2 pitcher for the Braves last year . In fact , he was probably the number 1 pitcher in the first half last year before the AS break . He was the one that became an AS , not Hudson or Hanson . Although , I think Hanson should have gone instead of Voglesong .

Dodgersarelife
3 years 9 months ago

I DON’T MIND I’ll TAKE ALL EM YOUNG BRAVE PITCHERS

BaseballLogic_Braves
3 years 9 months ago

I don’t think Jurrjens would be number four. I like Hanson in the 2 spot though. 
This is how it SHOULD be. 

Hudson
Hanson 
Jurrjens
Beachy
Minor

I really like Mike Minor… His numbers aren’t particularly good, but I really think given the opportunity he would do fine.

3 years 9 months ago

Thats ridiculous to put Beachy ahead of Jurrjens…he was the best pitcher in the NL for the first half of the season last year.