Extension Candidate: Anibal Sanchez

Before he turned 24, Anibal Sanchez had been dealt in a blockbuster trade, pitched a no-hitter and undergone an operation for a torn labrum in his throwing shoulder. The unpredictability of the right-hander’s early career has subsided and Sanchez, who turns 28 next month, has established himself as a dependable, accomplished starter.

Anibal Sanchez - Marlins

Since 2010, Sanchez has averaged a 3.61 ERA, 196 innings, 8.3 K/9, 3.1 BB/9 and a 44.7% ground ball rate. He’s entering his final season as an arbitration eligible player, and the Marlins view him as a candidate for a contract extension. The club approached Sanchez about a long-term deal late last season, Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald reported in the fall.

The Marlins offered $6.9MM for 2012, while Sanchez countered with an $8MM submission, as MLBTR's Arbitration Tracker shows. Let’s place his 2012 earnings at $7.5MM to keep things simple. 

Sanchez’s free agent years figure to be considerably more expensive for the Marlins. C.J. Wilson, who was able to solicit bids from all 30 teams this offseason, will earn $15.5MM per free agent year under his new contract with the Angels. Since 2010, Wilson has out-performed Sanchez in terms of wins, ERA and innings, so it's hard to imagine an annual salary of $15.5MM for Sanchez's free agent years at this point. Another Angels starter, Jered Weaver, signed an $85MM deal, but it’s also out of reach for Sanchez.

There’s little doubt that Sanchez’s free agent years are each worth $10MM-plus. Johnny Cueto, Trevor Cahill and other statistically similar pitchers had free agent years valued above $10MM on extensions, although those pitchers were considerably further from free agency than Sanchez is now. This gives us a likely $10MM floor for each free agent year to go along with the presumed ceiling of $15.5MM.

John Danks signed a five-year, $65MM deal with the White Sox and though the left-hander has historically been more durable than Sanchez, his deal could figure in to talks between the Marlins and Icon Sports Group. Danks’ free agent seasons were valued at $14.25MM each, a target Sanchez could approach.

A 2012 salary of $7.5MM and a $14MM salary for 2013-15 would amount to a four-year total in the $50MM range. The deal would not rival Danks’ contract in terms of length or overall value, but Sanchez has more labrum operations than 200-inning seasons at this point in his career, and the Marlins will surely take that into account when considering the possible risks of locking Sanchez up.

However, Miami committed $58MM for four seasons of Mark Buehrle and appear to have offered Wilson considerably more. They’re willing to spend on pitching and if they believe Sanchez can replicate his 2010-11 success, he could be their next long-term investment.

Photo courtesy Icon SMI.


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21 Comments on "Extension Candidate: Anibal Sanchez"


NYBravosFan10
3 years 6 months ago

Yes Miami please extend him!!! The Braves almost always squeeze at least 3 or 4 runs out of him. He’s basically the only Marlins pitcher they are good against.

Clayton Wilson
3 years 6 months ago

Ricky Nolasco: 111 IP, 4.80 ERA, 1.500 WHIP, .301, .347, .507

Anibal Sanchez: 86 IP, 5.11 ERA, 1.541 WHIP, .289, .359, .437

Carlos Zambrano: 74 IP, 6.08 ERA, 1.568 WHIP, .274, .366, .462

Buehrle’s only made two starts against the Braves. He didn’t pitch too well, but managed to limit runs. Johnson pretty much owns the Braves though.

None of this really matters though, I’m just bored. Teams change every year……But I do have plenty of confidence in them beating up on Zambrano, which is always fun to see.

NYBravosFan10
3 years 6 months ago

lol, i hear ya. And Nolasco has pitched much better in recent years against us. Those numbers are pretty skewed because his horrid performances pre-2009 and to be totally honest I forgot about Zambrano.

Clayton Wilson
3 years 6 months ago

Yeah, I still got that 16 K game from Nolasco in my head. Diaz could’ve tied the game up in the 9th had he just kept running toward the plate after the wild pitch, but was instead thrown out at 3B to end the game……and likely the Braves WC chances in 2010.

Nunez(or whatever his real name is) is another guy the Braves usually handle.

valkscool
3 years 6 months ago

I think they should sign him to a 4 year deal worth $41,000,000.

Devon Henry
3 years 6 months ago

EJack should be a good comparable for A.Sanchez.

johnsilver
3 years 6 months ago

Sanchez is far better than jackson and u watch.. Over the next 3 years or so will put up better numbers, regardless of the league he pitches in. Sanchez knows how to control his stuff and is in command on the mound. His only problem was with injuries early on in his career, not just plain old stank.

Devon Henry
3 years 6 months ago

I agree, im talking money wise. They have similiar numbers and are the same age. In my opinion i believe that Sanchez is the better pitcher.

3 years 6 months ago

“C.J. Wilson,
who was able to solicit bids from all 30 teams this offseason, will
earn $15.5MM per free agent year under his new contract with the Angels.”

This can’t be accurate… The Rays have 7 MLB ready pitchers, with a small budget on top of that. I can’t imagine Andrew Friedman even bothering to throw out an offer…

NYBravosFan10
3 years 6 months ago

No way that’s accurate. There definitely are some teams that had their rotations decided or at least who was going to compete for the spots and I can’t imagine that any major league free agent would ever solicit interest from all 30 teams.

bjsguess
3 years 6 months ago

“was able” is not the same as “actually received”. The point being made was that any team COULD put out a bid (or CJ and his agent COULD reach out to every team). You are absolutely correct that CJ did not receive bids from every ML club.

bjsguess
3 years 6 months ago

“was able” is not the same as “actually received”. The point being made was that any team COULD put out a bid (or CJ and his agent COULD reach out to every team). You are absolutely correct that CJ did not receive bids from every ML club.

dc21892
3 years 6 months ago

Amazing how well he’s bounced back from a shoulder injury when so many pitchers fail to do so.

3 years 6 months ago

Lock him up, now! If the Fish didn’t have a new ballpark and all the bells, whistles, and big contracts, Sanchez would be considered their #3 starter for years to come. Even so, he’s going to be around for a while. He’s quietly consistent.

And happy birthday to Josh Johnson today!

NYBravosFan10
3 years 6 months ago

There’s a lot more than bells and whistles. Have you seen that skyscraper home run feature?

3 years 6 months ago

Ugh. I’ve tried my best to avoid looking at it. I’m hoping Big Mike cranks one into it on Opening Day and puts an end to that monstrosity. 

chico65
3 years 6 months ago

He’s a no-hitter waiting to happen every time he takes the mound.  I’d go 3-4 years at 10-12 a year without much hesitation.  At that amount, he won’t hamstring you too much if his shoulder flies apart.  That said, they’re better off with him than Wilson, for sure.

3 years 6 months ago

Agreed. He’ll probably get a 7-7.5, 10, 12, 12 deal structure. I think he was better than Ricky No-Show last year, and Nolasco makes 11.5 in the last year of his deal. 

citizen
3 years 6 months ago

conisistently below .500 except for the rookie season. no cgs.

Clayton Wilson
3 years 6 months ago

Well, that’s one way to evaluate pitchers I guess……

bjsguess
3 years 6 months ago

I wouldn’t hesitate to go 4/40 with him. I’d be comfortable at 4/50. More than that I’d look for a trade partner.