Phillies Links: Victorino, Lidge, Hamels

A few items to pass along as the Phillies begin their defense of five consecutive NL East crowns …

  • Center fielder Shane Victorino, entering his final season before free agency, said there haven't yet been any negotiations between him and the Phils regarding an extension, but he said wants to remain in Philly, according to Todd Zolecki of MLB.com“I don’t plan on going anywhere else,” he said.
  • Brad Lidge, now of the Nationals, said the Phillies reversed course after telling him that they wanted to re-sign him at the conclusion of 2011, according to Bob Brookover of the Philadelphia Inquirer. GM Ruben Amaro told Brookover that the sides discussed a modest deal early in the offseason but moved on to other options when Lidge passed in favor of seeking closing opportunities elsewhere.
  • Now that Cole Hamels has expressed a willingness to remain with the Phillies — and perhaps even sign at a hometown discount — the onus is on the club to secure the left-hander with a long-term contract, opines Ken Rosenthal of FOXSports.com. Rosenthal adds that even with an already hefty payroll, the Phils can afford Hamels, as they've already sold 3.1MM tickets for 2012.


50 Responses to Phillies Links: Victorino, Lidge, Hamels Leave a Reply

  1. start_wearing_purple
    start_wearing_purple 3 years ago

    Onus. Now that’s a word one doesn’t hear often.

    Anyway, yeah. At this point I’d be shocked if the Phils don’t work it out with Hamels. The ball really is in their court.

  2. Dylan 3 years ago

    I’m not sure the Phils can still afford Hamels and Shane after this year…It’s great that they sold that many tickets already and it is a true testament to how passionaite the fanbase in Philly is, but we know not all that money goes into the Phillies. What they need is a new TV deal and then the LT won’t matter.

    On Victorino, if he signs a three year deal, I’d be fine with that, but I think he ends up in SD closer to Hawaii for four years+ with their new TV deal.

    I’ll be very happy if/when they announce a deal for Hamels regardless of $ and years. It’s always good to keep homegrown talent through their prime years (even if you have to keep them around for a couple years longer than you want) and that is something the Phillies seem to have been doing for a bit now.

  3. Phillies_Aces35 3 years ago

    First priority’s Cole Hamels. There’s still the posibility (very slim) that Mayberry turns himself into an every day player and can take over for Shane for a year or so until Pence’s contract’s up.

    I’m curious to see what Tyson Gillies can do. I doubt he’d be ready any sooner than mid season 2013.

    • 1980CHAMPS 3 years ago


      There’s still the posibility (very slim) that Mayberry turns himself into an every day player”

      Is this Charlie Manuel?  Did you even watch Mayberry play last season?  He played better than most of this teams everyday players.

      • Phillies_Aces35 3 years ago

        “He played better than most of this teams everyday players.”

        … you left out in the 2nd half. He was awful in the first half until he came back from AAA.

        and you can’t compare Mayberry to the likes of Victorino, Rollins, Howard, etc because he didn’t in fact play every day and was protected from facing the Tim Lincecums, the Matt Cains, the Josh Johnsons, etc of the world.

        I still don’t think he’s going to be able to hit right handed pitching well enough (good, quality right handed pitching not bad middle relievers) to be an everyday player.

        • philly_philanderer 3 years ago

           that was the same argument about Jayson Werth also–couldnt hit off-speed, couldnt hit Rhanded pitching…and Werth made the physical plate adjustment (dropping his hands) and we already saw Mayberry make that exact same hitting adjustment when he returned from his AAA stint (as you mentioned). It is early to tell what Mayberry can bring to the table, but with our outfield depth I seriously cannot see mgmt investing any more into Victorino…hes a fan favorite for sure, but I think he falls victim to the fact that Hamels is priority number 1 and Victorino can be replaced

  4. Whowonthe2009WorldSeries 3 years ago

    The question is, if they sign Hamels long term at something close to Santana’s contract (6/138 I think) can they field a competitive offensive team given what they are currently locked into.  I understand that they have a high payroll and that they are selling tickets but they can’t really sell more than last season.  They are selling out every night, their revenue is their revenue at this point.

    Payroll though they are currently paying several older players substantial money to play their positions for years to come.  It’s not like they have a ton of wiggle room.  If they choose not to resign Victorino how are they going to replace their first or second best offensive player?  Is the answer an aging Josh Hamilton or Andre Ethier?  Who knows who even hits the market.    Also, its not that Lee and Halladay are going to fall off of a Cliff but in 2 years they likely won’t be 2 of the best 10 pitchers in the MLB.  That isn’t a knock on them its just kind of what happens in baseball.  And that offense doesn’t really have any reinforcements on its way.  I understand they have Dom Brown but a) they don’t seem to want to utilize him b) prospects miss all of the time, he might be one of them.  The I could be wrong but I don’t think Phillies are that far away from becoming similar to the 2011 San Francisco Giants.

    • start_wearing_purple
      start_wearing_purple 3 years ago

      I’d be very surprised if it took something similar to what Santana signed for to get Hamels. At the time Santana was considered easily a top 5 pitcher. Hamels is good and top of the rotation on almost any team but I don’t think many people outside of Philly would call him a top 10 pitcher.

      • Whowonthe2009WorldSeries 3 years ago

        I get what you’re saying but ages 22-27 Sabathia had a 127 ERA+, Hamels has a 126.  I don’t think Philadelphia has anything to do with that, those are elite numbers.  And maybe he isn’t a top 10 but Santana signed that deal like 5 years ago, seems totally fair for Cole. Not to mention Lee who was 3-4 years older got 5/125.  Why wouldn’t Cole get more?

        • Phillibuster 3 years ago

          Cole is benefiting from one of the best defensive teams in recent memory.  Not to say he wouldn’t be an elite pitcher anywhere, but some of his stats are getting a bit padded by the fact that he’s got spectacular gloves behind him.

          • InLeylandWeTrust 3 years ago

            3.03 SIERA, 3.05 FIP, 3.02 xFIP last season. He’s a stud no matter where you put him.

          • Phillibuster 3 years ago

            As I said, he’s an elite pitcher anywhere.  But if you put some less-than-best-in-the-league defense behind him, you’d see some of his stats (including ERA+) rise somewhat, making a Johan-esque contract not nearly as “fitting.”

            Especially looking at what happened with that contract.

          • $1519287 3 years ago

            hey the contract is not over yet. I hope my favorite pitcher from the last decade can bounce back this year. He probably won’t be worth as much as he’s getting paid… but Johan’s going to give it all he’s got. 

            He’s had stellar seasons even when the Mets were going downhill. 

            And I place some, or most, of the blame on their inept medical staff for the delayed rehab of injuries. 

            – ECB

          • Whowonthe2009WorldSeries 3 years ago

            Those are fielding independent numbers.  And if Cole is benefiting from the defense I guess Halladay and Lee must not be as good as their numbers show, right?

          • Phillibuster 3 years ago

            How is ERA+ independent of fielding?  A player with greater range is going to get a ball that a player without it would not.  It won’t be deemed an error by the official scorer if Prince Fielder legitimately has no shot to get to a ball smoked down the 1st-base line, but if Adam Lind makes a diving catch, it prevents a hit (possibly a run), which in turn impacts the pitcher’s Earned-Run-derived statistics.

            As far as Halladay and Lee, yes, they benefited from an excellent defense in 2011. Does that mean they’d be bad, mediocre, or slightly above-average elsewhere? No. But it also means that some of their numbers would look slightly less impressive on other teams.

  5. TophersReds 3 years ago

    It must be nice to already have more tickets sold for 2012 than my club will even hope to sell by the end of the year. Then again, consistent winning allows that to happen when it comes to selling tickets (unless you’re the Rays).

  6. Harryhood280 3 years ago

    Here is the deal with the phillies money situation (at least from what I have observed)

    Assuming they don’t completely fall off in the next 2-3 years, they will be top 3 in ticket and merchandise sales every year for some time to come. That, plus their rich and, lately, willing to part with cash ownership group allows them to run a 170-180 million payroll during that time. That leads up to 2015 / 2016, when the phillies will get a new TV deal worth at least 5 billion dollars. no one needs to panic, unless the phils go .500 and miss the playoff this year and next.

    Now regardless of all of that money, they still are going to need to have young cheap talent to plug into the 4 & 5 SP spots, at least one outfielder and one infielder, maybe a catcher and most (or all) of the bullpen and bench. It doesn’t matter how much money you have if you are paying 3 20m pitchers and 75m+ for your 5 best offensive guys. Because of that, I think they are going to take every opportunity they can in the next few years to plug young guys in if they are ready. If brown and Mayberry have good years, adios Shane. Valle could be the starting catcher at less than 1m – year on average from 2013-2018. They have good young pitching that could replace halladay and Lee in 2-4 years. They had a great draft in 2011 and lots of picks in 2012.

    What I’m saying is relax. The phillies are still in great shape for the future. A few god breaks and they could be looking at a long dynasty ala the braves in the 90s – 2003 (hopefully with more world series wins of course).

  7. Harryhood280 3 years ago

    End got cut off

    They are in great shape for the future is what that should say. A few good breaks and they could be looking at a legit dynasty situation with a few more WCs.

  8. Need to lock up Hamels. As for Victorino… if Domonic Brown is killing it triple A come June I think you seriously consider bringing him up, letting him get some at bats at major level and if he does well you trade Shane come all-star break. You can’t let Victorino walk and not get anything in return. (yes I know we would most likely get a draft pick but that system seems to be shady now after this latest CBA)

    soo…..

    I’m either trading Shane for ONE top 3B, SS, or a 2B prospect along with a mid-level pitching prospect. 

    Or

    I’m trading Shane for prospects to then flip over for a starting 3B (David Wright or Adrian Beltre)  

    • Whowonthe2009WorldSeries 3 years ago

      Adrian Beltre just signed a 6 year deal with Texas that began last year.  He isn’t getting moved.  And who is going to pay top prospects that could aquire David Wright for 1/2 of Victorino.  Why wouldn’t they just get David Wright themselves.  Keep dreaming.  You are not getting that much for half of one year of Shane Victorino.

  9. Harryhood280 3 years ago

    Philibuster –

    As for the owners, no we don’t know exactly how wealthy they are, but they are clearly wealthy enough. They own a team with the 2-3 highest payroll in the league, and let’s not forget that there are a lot of them.

    The TV deal – not only do they have 3 times the viewers as the padres, but San Diego is a small market relatively speaking. The Philadelphia metro area is the 4th largest market in sports and the biggest with only one baseball team as
    Opposed to NYC, Chicago, and LAs 2 teams. Not only do they have the 5.5 million people in the city and immediate suburbs – The phillies broadcast area also includes the Allentown – Reading – Lancaster corridor (1.5 million people) and the rest of S Jersey (another million).

    4 billion $ is a conservative estimate when looking at that info and comparable deals. 5 is a pretty safe bet.

    • Phillibuster 3 years ago

      We can assume that their payroll indicates that they’re well-off, or it’s also possible that we’re legitimately reaching the ceiling of where they’re comfortable going.  Neither you, nor I, have any idea on that score – anything we may say about it is purely inference.

      The Greater San Diego Metropolitan Area has about 4.8MM residents.  The Greater Philadelphia Metropolitan Area (which includes almost all of those areas you listed, as well as portions of Delaware) has about 6.7MM residents.  That is larger, but not hugely larger.  It’s all well and good that we’ve only got one MLB team here, but even if you average out Angels and Dodgers fans, they still have a larger viewer base (greater LA Metro Area has 18+MM residents).  Same goes for the Mets and Yankees (22+MM residents in the Greater NYC Metro).

      Additionally, the Padres deal was for twenty years.  You would have a very hard time convincing me that the Phillies are willing to sign a TV contract that long.  Couple that with the fact that numerous sources (even according to the Gelb article) are saying the Padres contract will not reach the $1.5BB mark, and I think it’s extremely premature to be predicting that the Phillies’ new TV contract will be more valuable than the Dodgers’ new contract is projected to be.

  10. Harryhood280 3 years ago

    And the dodgers aren’t really comparable here. They have serious financial and ownership issues. The phillies don’t have either. The dodgers also compete with the angels for viewers. The phillies have a monopoly in their viewing area, strengthened even more by having the AAA, AA, and low A affiliates within the viewing area and 50 miles from CBP.

    • monkeydung 3 years ago

      I can’t wait for two months from now when people aren’t talking about the Dodgers like this anymore.

    • Phillibuster 3 years ago

      Actually, I would think that the confusion with ownership would result in a higher value contract, because the new owners are going to want to bring in as much money as possible in to help offset the costs of acquiring the team in the first place.

      Couple that with a viewer base that’s 3 times larger than the Phillies (1.5-2, if you want to assume that the split between Angels and Dodgers fans is 50/50), and the fact that the Angels just signed a new TV contract recently as well (to the tune of roughly $3BB), and I’m decidedly unconvinced that Gelb’s projection is realistic.

  11. Dylan 3 years ago

    Phillies  can’t trade Shane half way through. You don’t trade one of your best hitters and give his job to a prospect when you are a contender and a favorite to end up in the WS. How can one justify this?

  12. 1980CHAMPS 3 years ago

    Its very simple: If Mayberry shows that last season wasn’t a fluke and Brown ends up the player they are hoping for…Victorino is gone after the season.

  13. Dylan 3 years ago

    Just so you know, I brought up this before and if they are going to trade Shane, right now would be the time to do it and get back a 3B prospect along with another young arm, not half way through the season…still can’t see it happening on either accounts unless a deal comes up that is to good to pass up

  14. Whowonthe2009WorldSeries 3 years ago

    I think you are vastly underestimating the drop off between Wiggington/Nix/Pierre and Shane Victorino.  I’m skeptical a club that had a 96 wRC+ last year is going to look to move arguably its best offensive player.

  15. Whowonthe2009WorldSeries 3 years ago

    I understand, and I’ve never been a huge Victorino fan, but his .372 wOBA last year was very real.

  16. Whowonthe2009WorldSeries 3 years ago

    That’s fine but I still think you are really underestimating the difference between him and anybody else the Phillies have available.

  17. Phillibuster 3 years ago

    Selective memory, alas.  In 2009, Lidge had a terrible year during the regular season, but continued his “never blew a save in the playoffs wearing red” trend that he began in 2008.  In 2010, he was significantly better in the regular season, and – again – zero saves blown in the playoffs (4 appearances, 4 IP, 2 saves, 0.00 ERA).  He spent too much of 2011 on the DL to get a good read on things, but he posted the best ERA in the ‘pen during both the regular season and the playoffs.

    That said, I find his comments rather confusing.  “The Phillies reversed course after telling him that they wanted to re-sign him,” but yet he also “passed in favor of seeking closing opportunities elsewhere.”  He had to know that “we want to re-sign you” and “you’re going to be the closer” are not synonymous.  That being the case, how is it in any way the Phillies who reversed course, if Lidge left because he wanted to close?

  18. Whowonthe2009WorldSeries 3 years ago

    I don’t think you realize that this isn’t 2003 Juan Pierre.

  19. Phillibuster 3 years ago

    The point raised by “Whowon” there was that Hamels’ ERA+ (ERA adjusted for ballpark) was akin to Johan’s.  My point, is that Hamels’ ERA+ is being inflated by the defense behind him. 

    His ERA, of course, should be suffering from how ‘hitter-friendly” CBP is, but not his ERA+.

  20. Phillibuster 3 years ago

    I generally prefer mostly non-SABR stats myself (case in point, I had to look up ERA+), but the Phillies’ D – especially the infield – is really pretty remarkable.

  21. Vmmercan 3 years ago

    A-Rod…Damon double steal…Was Lidge not pitching that game?

  22. For starters, though it does not meet the technical definition of a blown save, Lidge’s inability to hold runners on allowed Johnny Damon to put the Yankees up for good in Game 4 of the 2009 World Series.  That put the Phillies in a 3-1 hole they would never come out of.  He was just OK in 2010, and lost his job by 2011.  Regardless, he did not live up to the money he was paid.  I do not blame Lidge for that, I blame the GM, but for Lidge to be critical of the Phillies now, after the nightmare 2009 season, the constant injuries, and the loss of his job, seems a bit selfish to me.

    Lidge wanted his cake, and he wanted to eat it too.  He wanted to find the best offer on the market that he could for himself, and he wanted that to be in Philadelphia.  It sounds like he needs to grow up.

  23. Phillibuster 3 years ago

    Gave up 3 runs in an inning, but it wasn’t a save situation, so no save blown.  He got the loss, though.

  24. Phillies_Aces35 3 years ago

    Did Lidge not also have close to 10 days in between outings… 

  25. Phillibuster 3 years ago

    We have no idea how rich Montgomery and the other owners are, because they don’t publicize their annual earnings or their net worth.  We can assume they’re wealthy, but the lack of spending in the mid-’90s and early-’00s indicates that may be a relatively new development.

    Did you get a source for the TV deal being in excess of $5BB other than the Matt Gelb article, where his entire justification is “Padres’ new TV deal might be as much as $1.5BB, and the Phillies have more than 3 times their ratings?”  Because his argument there was full of numerous holes (duration of the Padres contract, questions over whether the Padres deal is actually worth that much, likelihood that the new Dodgers deal is going to be less than that despite a viewer base more than triple the size, etc.). 

    That doesn’t mean it’s definitely not going to happen, but making statements like “[it’ll be] worth at least 5 billion dollars” based solely on that are a litte premature.

  26. $1519287 3 years ago

    Correct. There are some words that auto flag the post for review, at which point a moderator must approve or delete the post. If you had used a derogatory word to attack another poster, your post would not have been approved. Hope that helps. Cheers.

    – ECB

  27. I wouldn’t sweat it man.  I posted a comment last night about Brad Lidge, nothing derogatory either, unless “stones” is considered derogatory, and my comment has been simply deleted by the mods.
    Censorship rules!!

  28. I guess this WAS my comment. 

    Anyway, Lidge was offered a minor league deal with no promises of the “closer’s” job by the Phillies.  He turned his nose up at it, despite the fact that the Phillies made him a very wealthy man from 2009-2011.  The Phillies got very little in return for the money they paid Lidge, but they stuck by him, played him when healthy, and even played him when he was flat out terrible.  He spent much of the past three years injured.  I really would like to know what Lidge expected the Phillies too offer.  If he settled for 1 year and $1M from Washington, something tells me he had a much higher opinion of his market than the market did.

    Contrast Lidge with Raul Ibanez.  Ibanez was paid a similar amount of money, he had an amazing first half of 2009, and was frequently injured from then on.  He appreciated the Phillies loyalty so much, that he agreed to turn down their arbitration offer so that they could at least recover a draft pick.  Based on his comments, I think it is safe to assume Lidge would not have returned the favor as Ibanez did.

  29. “He got the loss, though”

    A blown save by any other name….

  30. nm344 3 years ago

    If Freddi Galvis has a good year in AAA, he can take over shortstop and Jimmy can move to 3rd next year.  

  31. nm344 3 years ago

    This is his last big contract, he should care more about winning at this point.

  32. Phillies_Aces35 3 years ago

     Ideally but Jimmy’s earned the right to dictate where he plays as long as he’s doing so at a high level.

  33. Phillibuster 3 years ago

    I make no claims to the effectiveness of the “Save” as a statistic for determining the value of a pitcher.

  34. Phillibuster 3 years ago

    I would say that 2009 and 2008 largely cancelled each other out, though Lidge continued to perform well in the playoffs up until one game, which would make the net experience of the 2 years combined as a positive one.  You can feel free to judge his performance year-by-year as independent, but you can’t imagine that he’d have gotten the contract he did if he hadn’t been literally perfect in saves during the 2008 seasons, so basing his performance on his contract is somewhat foolish.

    In 2010, Lidge posted a sub-3.00 ERA, a sub-.200 BAA, and a 2.17 K/BB ratio.  That’s not “just OK” as far as 9th-inning relievers go.  Then, in the playoffs, he was as perfect as perfect could be, posting a 0.00 ERA through all of his appearances. 

    I’m not making the argument that Brad Lidge was worthy of the CY, but forgetting his 2008 season, emphasizing his 2009 season, and downplaying the successes he had in 2010 doesn’t mean that he really was as bad as you paint him.  It was his injury risk, more than anything, that set his low price point this off-season.

    As I said, I find it confusing that he feels the Phillies “reversed course” without telling him, while at the same time decided he wanted to be a closer (hence why he left) again.  That doesn’t make any sense to me, because there was no way he was going to be the closer again in 2012, and he had to know that.

    Then again, maybe every former-Phillies player who joins the Nats is required to say something derogatory about the FO/team as a term of their employment in Washington.  Or maybe Jayson set the precedent.

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