The cutoff for super two players after the 2012 season will be two years and 134 days of service time, according to preliminary internal studies by CAA (Twitter link). A year ago this time the agency correctly anticipated that the 2011 cutoff would be two years and 146 days of service time.
This would be good news for players such as Josh Thole, Chris Johnson, Michael Saunders, Tyler Colvin, Sam Fuld, Esmil Rogers, Drew Storen and Mark Melancon. They'll project as super twos this coming offseason, assuming they accrue a full year of service in 2012 and the CAA projection is accurate.
Super two status entitles certain players to four years of arbitration eligibility, rather than the usual three. In other words, they'll earn more than their peers. Under baseball's new collective bargaining agreement, 22% of players qualify as super twos. This represents an increase from 17% and helps explain why the cutoff is lower than it was a year ago.
The following players will finish the season with less than two years and 134 days of service time: Carlos Santana, Justin Smoak, Danny Valencia, Michael Brantley, Jordan Schafer, Giancarlo Stanton, Madison Bumgarner, Stephen Strasburg, Daniel Hudson, Dan Runzler, Andrew Cashner and Alexi Ogando. They don't project as super twos, so their teams may only have to worry about going through the arbitration process three times.
I looked ahead to some upcoming first-time arbitration eligible players earlier in the year.