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The Best Remaining Fits For Cody Bellinger

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For the past six weeks, the offseason has centered on three individuals: Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto and Yoshinobu Yamamoto. With the first two having found new homes and Yamamoto expected to choose his team within a week or two, there’s likely to be greater attention placed on Cody Bellinger.

MLBTR’s #2 free agent entering the winter, Bellinger has had a quiet offseason since declining his end of a mutual option and rejecting a qualifying offer from the Cubs. Early reports tied the lefty-hitting center fielder to the Yankees, Giants and Blue Jays. The incumbents have some amount of interest in a reunion, although the presence of highly-regarded rookie Pete Crow-Armstrong gives them leverage to pass on what’s surely still a lofty asking price.

Last week, the New York Post’s Jon Heyman wrote that Bellinger’s camp at the Boras Corporation were seeking to reach or surpass $200MM. Yet it’s fair to presume that the former MVP’s market has dwindled over the past month. Along with Soto, the Yankees acquired Alex Verdugo and Trent Grisham to join Aaron Judge in the outfield. San Francisco signed Jung Hoo Lee to play center field instead. That knocks out the two teams widely perceived as the favorites. (At the beginning of the offseason, every MLBTR staffer pegged the Giants or Yankees as Bellinger’s landing spot in our Free Agent prediction contest.)

Where does that leave things for the two-time All-Star?

Likeliest Fits

  • Angels: It’s difficult to identify exactly where the Angels go from here. Los Angeles has thus far limited its offseason activity to a trio of low-cost middle relief additions (Luis García, Adam Cimber and Adam Kolarek). Ohtani was their top priority. After losing him, they’ll need to determine how aggressively to add to a roster that won only 73 games despite his MVP performance. GM Perry Minasian and new skipper Ron Washington have been clear they’re not about to rebuild. Bringing in a front-line starting pitcher appears the top priority, but they’ll also need to address a lineup that ranked 16th in runs and lost a .304/.412/.654 hitter. Bellinger would give the Angels an option to cover center field if Mike Trout needs any time on the injured list. He’d push Mickey Moniak to a fourth outfield role and could take some of the available DH at-bats. He’s also a marquee name who starred in Los Angeles, which could hold appeal to owner Arte Moreno.
  • Blue Jays: USA Today’s Bob Nightengale wrote over the weekend that the Jays looked like the top suitor for Bellinger. It’s not hard to see why. The Jays came up empty on their pursuits of Ohtani and Soto. While no one would consider Bellinger the same kind of upgrade, Toronto still has ample short-term payroll space and a need for a left-handed bat. They’re also without a clear answer in center field after Kevin Kiermaier hit free agency. The Jays could sign a corner outfielder and bump Daulton Varsho to center (or simply try to re-sign Kiermaier), but Bellinger is the best all-around position player on the open market.
  • Cubs: Bellinger was among the Cubs’ most valuable players a season ago. While they may have initially viewed him as a one-year stopgap to Crow-Armstrong, there’s an argument for bringing him back. The Cubs don’t have a clear option at first base, where Bellinger is a plus defender. His ability to play all three outfield spots would afford the organization the flexibility to start Crow-Armstrong in Triple-A (where he struck out at a concerning rate in 34 games last season) without needing to rely on journeyman Mike Tauchman to maintain his surprisingly strong form from 2023. Even if Tauchman and/or Crow-Armstrong prove deserving of everyday playing time, the Cubs could rotate Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki through designated hitter to keep their outfield fresh.

Longer Shots

  • Mets: New York could upgrade over either Starling Marte or DJ Stewart in the corner outfield. There’s room for Bellinger to join Brandon Nimmo as a long-term outfield investment, but it doesn’t seem that’s how the front office is approaching this winter. The Mets are in on Yamamoto but appear to view him as an exceptional case in what’d otherwise be a relatively quiet offseason as they focus primarily on 2025.
  • Nationals: While Washington isn’t an immediate contender, they could make a legitimate push for the playoffs by the ’25 season. Bellinger, who turned 28 in July, would still project as a productive player during that window. The Nats have top outfield prospects Dylan Crews and James Wood looming, but only Lane Thomas should have a short-term spot locked down. The Nationals struck early on the Jayson Werth signing to accelerate a rebuild a decade ago. There’d be some sense in doing that again, but they’ve been fairly quiet in recent offseasons and still have organizational uncertainty regarding their local TV deal as part of the contentious MASN arrangement with the Orioles.
  • Phillies: Philadelphia is involved on Yamamoto, suggesting an ability to stretch the budget for the right player. Whether Bellinger qualifies isn’t clear. Brandon Marsh is a solid center field option, while the Phils have Johan Rojas and Cristian Pache as options for the corner opposite Nick Castellanos. It’s not a terrible outfield, but it’s also perhaps the weakest area of an otherwise excellent roster. The Phils haven’t shied away from pursuing star talent under owner John Middleton and president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski.

Payroll Questions

  • Mariners: Seattle is likely to bring in at least one outfielder to join Julio Rodríguez and a group that otherwise consists of players like Dominic Canzone, Taylor Trammell and Sam Haggerty. Bellinger fits on the roster, but the M’s have thus far sliced payroll amidst uncertainty about the revenues from their local TV deal with Root Sports. President of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto hasn’t signed a free agent hitter to a multi-year contract in his eight-plus years leading the Seattle front office. Breaking that streak with Bellinger would be a massive shift in operating procedure.
  • Padres: Much of what applies to the Mariners can be said about the Padres. They want to compete after a disappointing playoff miss. They need outfield help to do so. Yet they’re also facing questions about their broadcasting deal and have only cut payroll so far this offseason. With Lee’s six-year, $113MM deal pushing beyond their spending range, it’s hard to see how they could make Bellinger work.
  • Rangers: The defending World Series winners could ostensibly make room for Bellinger, perhaps by trading incumbent center fielder Leody Taveras to address an injury-plagued rotation. GM Chris Young has suggested they’re unlikely to make the kind of free agent splash they have in prior offseasons, though, so it’s far likelier they stick with an internal group of Adolis García, Taveras and Evan Carter while awaiting the arrival of top prospect Wyatt Langford.

Mets Acquire Yohan Ramirez

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The Mets announced Monday that they’ve acquired right-hander Yohan Ramirez from the White Sox in exchange for cash. Ramirez was designated for assignment by the ChiSox last week.

Ramirez appeared in just five games for the White Sox, who acquired him from the Pirates via an early-September waiver claim. He yielded four runs in four innings with the South Siders but had pitched to a solid 3.67 ERA with a 20% strikeout rate and 9% walk rate in 34 1/3 innings.

Now 28 years old, Ramirez made his big league debut with the Mariners in 2020 and has appeared in every MLB season since. He’s totaled 124 innings of 3.99 ERA ball as a big leaguer, striking out 23.2% of his opponents against a 12.5% walk rate that’s well north of the league average. Ramirez was a fly-ball pitcher early in his career but switched from a four-seamer to a two-seamer in 2022 and has since been a pronounced ground-ball arm (54.1%).

Scouting reports on Ramirez from his prospect days praised his stuff across the board but noted that he lacked command. That’s played out through much of his big league tenure to date, but the pieces for a quality reliever are clearly present. He’s out of minor league options, so the Mets will have to either carry Ramirez on the Opening Day roster or else trade him, release him or attempt to pass him through outright waivers prior to the end of spring training.

Mets, Yankees Reportedly Holding Second Meetings With Yoshinobu Yamamoto

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Right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto reportedly met with a contingent of Mets officials including owner Steve Cohen, president of baseball operations David Stearns, manager Carlos Mendoza, and pitching coach Jeremy Hefner at Cohen’s home Saturday night, according to a report from Joel Sherman of the New York Post. It’s the second known meeting between the Mets and Yamamoto this offseason following Cohen’s trip to Japan earlier this month. SNY’s Andy Martino reports that Yamamoto will also hold a second meeting with the Yankees while he’s in New York.

Yamamoto, 25, is widely regarded as the top starting pitcher on the free agent market this offseason. His market has begun to heat up in recent weeks, with a report earlier this month indicating that seven top suitors had emerged in the Yamamoto sweepstakes. Subsequent reports have indicated that each of the Mets, Yankees, Dodgers, Red Sox, Giants, Blue Jays, and Phillies have met with Yamamoto, leaving that group as the likely finalists for the youngster’s services. While Martino reports that discussions between the Mets and Yamamoto have not yet reached the stage of a formal offer, Sherman indicates that the bidding process between interested clubs is expected to “intensify” this coming week, with a resolution expected before the end of the calendar year. That’s hardly a surprise, as Yamamoto’s posting window expires on January 4.

With so many big market teams involved in the bidding process, rumors have swirled that Yamamoto’s final price tag could exceed $300MM. Though that hefty sum could factor in the posting fee owed to the Orix Buffaloes as compensation for Yamamoto’s services, it would nonetheless be an astounding contract for the right-hander. Yankees ace Gerrit Cole’s $324MM pact currently standing as the only contract (except that of two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani) among starting pitchers to reach the $300MM threshold. That Yamamoto could even approach that stratosphere without having even thrown a pitch in the majors is a testament to his unique combination of youth and immense talent. Across seven seasons with the Buffaloes, Yamamoto has never posted an ERA above the 2.35 figure of his rookie season and has posted sub-2.00 ERAs in four of his last five seasons, including a microscopic 1.16 ERA in 171 frames this past season.

After parting ways with future Hall of Famers Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander at the trade deadline over the summer, the Mets could certainly use the sort of front-of-the-rotation caliber arm Yamamoto projects to be. While the club has already added Luis Severino to its starting staff this offseason, even a bounce-back season from the righty would leave the Mets with holes to fill in a rotation that includes little certainty behind Kodai Senga and Jose Quintana. Righty Tylor Megill and lefty Joey Lucchesi appear to be the most likely internal candidates to round out the club’s rotation as things stand.

As for the Yankees, the club is in a somewhat similar boat with little certainty behind Cole. Though lefties Nestor Cortes and Carlos Rodon have both flashed front-of-the-rotation potential in the past, both southpaws are coming off down seasons in 2023 during which they were plagued by injuries and under performance. Meanwhile, the club has little depth outside of that trio and Clarke Schmidt after shipping rotation candidates Michael King, Randy Vasquez, and Jhony Brito to the Padres in exchange for Juan Soto earlier this month.

One wrinkle in the New York clubs’ pursuits of Yamamoto is their backup plans should he ultimately sign elsewhere. While the Yankees are generally expected to pivot to other top-of-the market arms such as Shota Imanaga in the event they fail to sign Yamamoto, the Mets appear unlikely to do the same. Recent reports have indicated that Stearns’s front office is not expected to pivot to other top-of-the-market options like Imanaga, Jordan Montgomery, and Blake Snell in the event that the club misses on Yamamoto. Per the report, the Mets view Yamamoto as a uniquely valuable player worth splurging on, but would otherwise prefer to focus on shorter-term deals for mid-market arms such as Lucas Giolito as they look to rebuild their rotation mix.

East Notes: Mets, Rays, Bautista

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The Mets are among several reported finalists for the services of right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who club owner Steve Cohen traveled to Japan to meet with earlier this month. All indications point to a very serious pursuit of the offseason’s top free agent starting pitcher, but The Athletic’s Will Sammon suggests that intense pursuit should not be taken as an indication the Mets plan to spend aggressively on long-term, top-of-the-market free agents this offseason. Sammon reports that the club views Yamamoto, 25, as something of a unique case thanks to his front-of-the-rotation potential and exceptional youth for a free agent.

Should they fail to land Yamamoto, Sammon suggests that the club doesn’t plan on pivoting to other top-of-the-market free agents such as Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery. Rather, Sammon suggests the Mets could pivot to a mid-market arm like Lucas Giolito, who the club has previously been reported to have interest in as they focus on shorter term, one- and two-year contracts to plug holes on their roster. Indications have percolated since the trade deadline that the Mets view 2024 as something of a transitory year where they hope to thread the needle between staying competitive and focusing on 2025 and beyond, and Sammon’s report is the latest among those signals.

In addition to their aforementioned goal of securing pitching help, Sammon suggests that the club could look to add a regular outfielder to their lineup as well as a right-handed hitting third baseman to replace the injured Ronny Mauricio in the club’s third base mix alongside Brett Baty, Mark Vientos, and Joey Wendle. Michael A. Taylor, Adam Duvall, Tommy Pham, and Joc Pederson are among the outfield options who may be available on short-term deals, while the likes of Gio Urshela and Justin Turner could help the club solidify its infield mix.

More from around MLB’s East divisions…

  • Rays president of baseball operations Erik Neander spoke to reporters (including Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times) today in the wake of the trade that sent right-hander Tyler Glasnow and outfielder Manuel Margot to the Dodgers. While Neander acknowledged that the club loses some “certainty” in dealing way Glasnow and Margot, he also suggested that he sees both Pepiot and DeLuca as players who could impact the big league club in the near future Neander was particularly effusive in his praise of Pepiot, who he suggested has “a very good chance to be a good major-league starter” and could be “very close” to reaching that potential. Per Topkin, the deal will save the Rays $33MM in 2024 as Tampa Bay will pay the Dodgers just $2MM of the $4MM cash included in the trade this season, with the remaining $2MM to be paid out next offseason in the event that the Dodgers decline their $12MM option on Margot, which would cover the $2MM buyout on that option.
  • Orioles closer Felix Bautista spoke to reporters this evening, including MLB.com’s Jake Rill and AJ Cassavell, and provided an update on his health after undergoing Tommy John surgery back in October. Bautista told the pair that his recovery from the surgery is going well, and that he’s “doing everything he can” to get back onto the field. That return to the mound won’t occur in 2024, as Bautista is expected to miss the entire campaign while rehabbing. With the right-hander expected back in time for Spring Training 2025, Bautista and the Orioles got together on a two-year extension upon the announcement of his surgery back in September.

Mets Showing Interest In Justin Turner

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The Mets have been engaged with representatives for free agent corner infielder Justin Turner, reports Mike Puma of the New York Post. They join the Diamondbacks and incumbent Red Sox among the teams known to be in the mix for the 39-year-old.

Turner spent three and a half seasons in Queens over a decade ago. At the time, he looked like a versatile but unexceptional infielder. After hitting .265/.326/.370 as a Met, Turner caught on with the Dodgers for the 2014 campaign. That change of scenery and an overhauled swing launched Turner to stardom. He raked at a .296/.375/.490 clip in nine seasons with Los Angeles before signing with Boston an offseason ago.

Despite his age, Turner remains a very good hitter. In 626 plate appearances, he hit .276/.345/.455 with 23 home runs. Turner kept his strikeout percentage to a modest 17.6% clip with solid power and plate discipline. The righty-hitting Turner had dramatic platoon splits last season, particularly from a slugging perspective, but he traditionally fares as well or better against same-handed pitching.

While Turner hasn’t shown many signs of decline in the batter’s box, his defensive responsibilities have waned. In his final season as a Dodger, he spent an equal amount of time at third base and designated hitter. Turner didn’t see much defensive work in Boston, starting 98 times at DH. He manned the hot corner on seven occasions, picked up four starts at second, and opened 35 contests at first base. That’s in part because the Sox have Rafael Devers and Triston Casas at the infield corners. Yet it’s also a question how heavy a defensive workload Turner can handle at this stage of his career.

That shouldn’t be a concern for the Mets. Turner wouldn’t see much first base action barring an injury to Pete Alonso. New York doesn’t have proven solutions at third base or DH, however. Young hitters Brett Baty and Mark Vientos project as the respective starters. Both are formerly well-regarded prospects, yet neither has produced at the big league level thus far.

President of baseball operations David Stearns said at the Winter Meetings that the Mets weren’t looking for a third baseman. That preceded an unfortunate ACL tear for young infielder Ronny Mauricio, who’d seemed a strong candidate for the third base job before his winter ball injury. Whether that changes the calculus for Stearns and the front office isn’t clear, although Turner could fit at DH even if the Mets wanted to give Baty the hot corner.

MLBTR predicted a one-year, $16MM contract for Turner. The Mets have made clear their primary focus is the 2025 campaign, but they’re not prepared to concede the ’24 season. There’s a need for at least one middle-of-the-order offensive presence in addition to the rotation questions that have been the organization’s focus so far.

Ken MacKenzie Passes Away

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Former major league reliever Ken MacKenzie has passed away at age 89, according to the Associated Press.

Born in Ontario, MacKenzie attended Yale. He signed with the Braves out of school in 1956. MacKenzie reached the big leagues with the franchise, at the time based in Milwaukee, in 1960. He pitched 15 1/3 innings over parts of two seasons before joining the expansion Mets in 1962.

MacKenzie logged a career-high 80 innings for the inaugural team in Queens, posting a 4.95 ERA. As the AP notes, his 5-4 record made him the only pitcher with an above-.500 mark for a team that ultimately went 40-120. MacKenzie was traded twice the following season, going to the Cardinals and Giants. He also saw some action with the Astros in 1965.

Over parts of six campaigns, the left-hander posted a 4.80 ERA across 208 1/3 innings. He struck out 142 hitters and picked up eight wins. After his playing career, he coached baseball and hockey at his alma mater throughout the 1970s. MLBTR sends our condolences to MacKenzie’s family, friends and former teammates.

Mets Sign Cam Robinson To Minor League Deal

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The Mets announced Thursday that they’ve signed righty reliever Cam Robinson to a minor league deal and invited him to big league camp this spring. The team also confirmed its previously reported signing of outfielder Trayce Thompson to a similar non-roster deal with a spring training invite.

The fit with Robinson and the Mets is a natural one, as he’s spent his entire career to date with the Brewers. Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns was running baseball ops in Milwaukee when Robinson was drafted in the 23rd round of the 2017 draft, and Robinson ranked as high as 24th among Brewers prospects earlier this season, per Baseball America.

Robinson soared through three minor league levels in 2022, finishing that season with a 2.49 ERA, 25 saves, a 31.6% strikeout rate and a less palatable 11.8% walk rate in 65 innings between High-A, Double-A and Triple-A. Things didn’t go nearly as well in 2023, when Robinson was tagged for a 5.33 earned run average in 50 2/3 frames between the Brewers’ Double-A and Triple-A affiliates. Robinson’s strikeout rate plummeted to 23%, while his already problematic walk rate climbed to an even more troubling 15.4%.

Lackluster ’23 output notwithstanding, Robinson posted strong run-prevention and strikeout numbers from 2021-22. Baseball America’s scouting report on him notes that his heater typically sits 93-95mph range, topping out at 97 mph. He pairs that with a high-spin curveball and occasional slider. Command troubles have long been an issue for Robinson, but solid velocity, a plus curveball and a track record of missing bats make him a decent depth flier on a minor league contract.

Tommy Hunter Officially Retires

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Longtime big league reliever Tommy Hunter has officially retired, he tells Britt Ghiroli of the Athletic (X link). Hunter first indicated he was retiring on former teammate Adam Jones’ podcast in October, news that eluded MLBTR at the time.

Hunter, 37, pitched parts of 16 seasons in the majors. The Rangers selected the University of Alabama product in the supplemental first round of the 2007 draft. He got to the big leagues the following August. Operating as a starter for three seasons, Hunter compiled a 4.36 ERA before being dealt alongside future home run champ Chris Davis to the Orioles for Koji Uehara.

While Davis turned out to be the star of that return, Hunter was a very productive player for Baltimore in his own right. He struggled as a starter over the next season and a half but found a new gear upon moving to the bullpen in 2013. The right-hander turned in consecutive sub-3.00 ERA showings while surpassing 60 innings in 2013 and ’14, combining for a 2.88 ERA over that stretch.

Hunter found himself in another deadline trade in 2015. As an impending free agent on an average Baltimore team, he was flipped to the Cubs in a swap for outfielder Junior Lake. Hunter bounced around as a middle reliever from that point forward, suiting up with the Indians, Orioles again, Rays and Phillies through 2020. He saw action with the Mets in each of the past three seasons. Hunter was generally effective for the majority of that time, although he finished with a 6.85 ERA in 23 2/3 innings before New York released him this past June.

In the decade after his move to the bullpen, he allowed 3.33 earned runs per nine in 410 appearances with six franchises. Hunter never posted huge strikeout tallies, but he had consistently strong command and turned in five seasons with 50+ innings and an ERA below 4.00. He was part of the 2010 Texas team that won the American League pennant and started Game 4 of that year’s Fall Classic, allowing two runs over four innings in a 4-0 loss.

For his career, Hunter posted a 4.07 ERA across 917 1/3 frames. He recorded 639 punchouts, won 56 games, picked up 103 holds and collected 22 saves. Baseball Reference calculated his career earnings in the $36MM range. MLBTR congratulates Hunter on his productive, very lengthy run at the highest level and wishes him the best in his post-playing days.

Mets Sign Trayce Thompson To Minor League Deal

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The Mets have signed Trayce Thompson to a minor league deal, reports Andy Martino of SNY. The outfielder will receive an invitation to major league Spring Training.

Thompson, 33 in March, is coming off a frustrating season. He seemed to have a breakout in 2022, hitting 13 home runs in 80 games for the Dodgers. He struck out at a 36.5% clip but also drew walks in 12.5% of his plate appearances and his outfield defense was given strong marks. FanGraphs considered him to be worth 2.5 wins above replacement, a solid tally for barely half a season.

The Dodgers brought him back but he couldn’t maintain that in 2023. His performance was diminished in the first couple of months before he suffered a left oblique strain in early June. He was still on the injured list in late July when he was flipped to the White Sox as part of the Lance Lynn/Joe Kelly trade. He activated from the IL a few days later but continued to struggle. He finished the season with a 43% strikeout rate and batting line of .163/.285/.294. He was outrighted off Chicago’s roster at the end of the season.

The Mets will give Thompson a chance for a fresh start and add him to their outfield mix in a non-roster capacity. They have Brandon Nimmo in center field but questions in the corners. Starling Marte, who is coming off an injury-marred season, is slated to be in one corner. DJ Stewart could be in another corner after finishing 2023 on a tear, but he’s a poor defender and might be better utilized in a designated hitter/bench bat capacity. Thompson has played all three outfield spots in his career and can potentially slot in as needed. If he gets added to the roster at any point, he is out of options but has just over four years of major league service time, meaning he could be retained next year if he gets back in good form.

This offseason has seen the Mets place a particular emphasis on depth. In recent months, they have claimed Penn Murfee, Zack Short, Tyler Heineman and Cooper Hummel off waivers. They have given one-year deals to Luis Severino, Joey Wendle, Michael Tonkin, Jorge López and Austin Adams. They have also given minor league deals to Cole Sulser, Kyle Crick, José Iglesias, Taylor Kohlwey, Rylan Bannon and now Thompson.

Francisco Álvarez Open To Extension With Mets

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Catcher Francisco Álvarez is interested in discussing a long-term extension with the Mets, reports Tim Healey of Newsday. The club’s new president of baseball operations David Stearns spoke positively about extensions of young players in a general sense but declined to speak about an Álvarez extension specifically.

“It’s something that every organization has to explore and requires both sides to have interest,” Stearns said. “And certainly, as we go forward, hopefully we’ll have a number of players in that second and third [year] where it makes sense to talk to them about it.”

Álvarez, 22, has just over a year in the big leagues and has carried himself well. He has 26 home runs in 128 career games. His 26.1% strikeout rate is a tad high but he’s also walked at a reasonable 8.2% clip. His .208/.284/.439 batting line amounts to a wRC+ of 98, indicating he’s been just barely below the league average hitter overall, though that’s better than par for a catcher.

In addition to that solid performance at the plate, he was graded well behind it. Each of FanGraphs, Baseball Prospectus and Statcast considered him to be one of the top five pitch framers in the league this year. Defensive Runs Saved gave him a grade of +7 in 2023, a mark that only seven catchers bested that season. FanGraphs considered him to be worth 2.7 wins above replacement on the season overall.

Since he debuted before his 21st birthday, Álvarez is currently slated to reach free agency at a relatively young age. He has just over one year of service time at the moment, meaning he would hit the open market after 2028, his age-26 season. That will give him some leverage in contract talks, as he could simply go year-to-year and cash in at that point. But signing a deal now would allow him to lock in some life-changing money and avoid the risk of an injury sapping some of his earning power. As Healey points out, Álvarez could give the Mets an extra couple of years of control and still become a free agent in his late 20s.

The Mets have been one of the most aggressive spenders in recent years, with owner Steve Cohen having shown little regard for the bottom line since purchasing the club. That presumably gives them the ability to lock in any player they decide they want to keep. They have some significant contracts on the books in the short term, some for players no longer on the roster, but extensions for young players generally ramp up over time, with smaller salaries in the early years.

By 2028, only Francisco Lindor and Brandon Nimmo have guaranteed contracts. Between now and then, significant deals for Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, James McCann, José Quintana, Luis Severino, Kodai Senga, Starling Marte, Edwin Díaz and Jeff McNeil will have wrapped up. But if the club makes a bold move, such as signing Yoshinobu Yamamoto or extending Pete Alonso, then that would obviously change things.

But given Cohen’s willingness to spend when he decides it’s warranted, they should be able to make something work with Álvarez if they consider him a core part of their next competitive window. It’s been signalled that 2024 will be a bit of a transition year as the club targets another full throttle push in 2025 and beyond. Álvarez is on pace to qualify for arbitration after that 2025 season so the club might like to get some cost certainty by agreeing to something earlier.

Extensions for players early in their careers are becoming more common. Luis Robert Jr., Eloy Jiménez and Jackson Chourio got notable guarantees before even reaching the majors while players like Corbin Carroll, Julio Rodríguez and Fernando Tatis Jr. got nine-figure guarantees with limited MLB experience.

In terms of catchers, Keibert Ruiz signed an extension with the Nationals in March. He secured a $50MM guarantee over eight years while also giving the Nats two club options. Like Álvarez now, Ruiz was also between one and two years of service at that time but was a couple of years older, going into his age-24 campaign. His results prior to that deal were also bit below those of Álvarez, both offensively and defensively, so the Mets would almost certainly have to beat that Ruiz deal to get something done with Álvarez.

There’s no real rush for the club, as Álvarez isn’t slated to qualify for arbitration until after 2025. Even if they want to get something done this winter, teams generally prefer to focus on acquisitions in the earlier parts of the offseason and leave extensions for rostered players until closer to Spring Training.

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