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NL East Notes: Harper, Braves, Mets

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One of the biggest questions facing the Phillies this offseason focuses on what position superstar slugger Bryce Harper will play in 2024. The 2024 campaign figures to be Harper’s first full campaign in the field since 2021, as Harper battled a partially torn UCL in 2022 before undergoing Tommy John surgery. That limited Harper to playing DH primarily in both 2022 and 2023, though Harper was able to move to first base late in the 2023 season, filling a hole left by Rhys Hoskins’s ACL injury during spring training. A decision on Harper’s position next year is expected to come in the near future, as president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski indicated to reporters (including Scott Lauber of The Philadelphia Inquirer) that Harper’s preferred position will be taken into consideration when building the team’s 2024 roster.

With Harper at first base in recent months, the Phillies have been able to use Kyle Schwarber at DH while playing both Brandon Marsh and Johan Rojas in the outfield to improve the club’s outfield defense. If Harper were to return to his native right field in 2024, that would seemingly leave Nick Castellanos to move over to left field, with Marsh and Rojas platooning in center. Speculatively speaking, that could open the door for the club to resign Hoskins in free agency or look into other potential first base bats like Brandon Belt and Jeimer Candelario. On the other hand, if Harper plays first base primarily next season, the club could look to add an additional outfielder such as Teoscar Hernandez, Adam Duvall, or Lourdes Gurriel Jr. to deepen their outfield group.

More from around the NL East…

  • David O’Brien of The Athletic recently discussed the future of the Braves rotation, which in part hinges upon the decisions made regarding veteran righty Charlie Morton. It’s as of yet unclear if the 40-year-old hurler intends to continue playing in 2024, and separately it’s an open question whether or not the Braves will exercise a $20MM club option for his services in 2024 or allow him to hit the open market. With Kyle Wright out of commission until 2025 due to shoulder surgery, parting ways with Morton would leave only Spencer Strider, Max Fried, and Bryce Elder locked into rotation spots headed into the 2024 season. O’Brien makes it clear that righty AJ Smith-Shawver is part of the club’s future plans in some capacity, noting the Braves informed teams that Smith-Shawver was “all but untouchable.” Still, even if the club plans to utilizie Elder and Smith-Shawver at the back of the rotation in 2024, they would likely need to replace Morton externally with a veteran arm rather than relying on youngsters like Darius Vines, Dylan Dodd, and Jared Shuster, all of whom may be better suited for depth roles.
  • SNY’s Danny Abriano recently discussed the options the Mets have at their disposal at third base for the 2024 season. While the third base market features interesting names such as Candelario and top option Matt Chapman, Abriano suggests that the club should stick to its internal options at the hot corner for the 2024 campaign. Brett Baty and Ronny Mauricio would appear to be the club’s top contenders for the everyday third base job internally. Baty struggled badly with a .212/.275/.323 slash line in 389 trips to the plate in the majors this year, though his pedigree as a consensus top-30 prospect and his phenomenal minor league numbers suggest the 23-year-old could take the next step in 2024. Mauricio, meanwhile, also struggled at the plate (.248/.296/.347 in 108 plate appearances) and is widely regarded as having a lower offensive ceiling than Baty, but brings quality defense and baserunning to the table when compared to Baty’s defensive miscues at the position. Another factor for the Mets could be top infield prospect Luisangel Acuna, who Abriano suggests will eventually take over second base, which could free up Jeff McNeil to move to third if Baty and Mauricio both struggle in the early parts of the 2024 season.

Braves Sign Pierce Johnson To Two-Year Extension

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The Braves signed reliever Pierce Johnson to a two-year, $14.25MM extension, the club announced. (Atlanta is one of the few teams that publicly discloses contract terms.) Johnson, who was a couple weeks from free agency, is set for consecutive $7MM salaries between 2024-25 and is guaranteed a $250K buyout on a $7MM team option for 2026. For luxury tax purposes, the contract’s average annual value is $7.125MM. Johnson is a client of John Boggs & Associates.

Johnson, 33 next May, first joined the Braves in a deadline deal that sent minor league pitchers Victor Vodnik and Tanner Gordon to the Rockies. It wasn’t an especially high-profile move at the time. The right-hander owned a 6.00 ERA over 38 innings after signing a $5MM free agent deal with Colorado. Johnson had punched out a quality 30.9% of opponents with the Rox, so he wasn’t without upside, but few would’ve anticipated how resoundingly he’d turn his season around.

The Missouri State product tossed 23 2/3 regular season innings for Atlanta, allowing 0.76 earned runs per nine. His strikeout rate jumped more than five percentage points, as he fanned 36% of batters faced. His swinging strike rate spiked from a solid 12.3% to an elite 17.8% mark. He more than halved his walks and doubled his ground-ball percentage. Johnson pitched his way into high-leverage work and added three scoreless appearances in the Division Series.

Leaving Coors Field offers a partial explanation for the improved results, but it’s certainly not the entire story. Johnson has always had promising raw stuff, pairing a 96 MPH fastball with a mid-80s power curve. Upon landing in Atlanta, he dramatically upped the use of the breaking ball. Johnson turned to the hook nearly three quarters of the time as a Brave after deploying it in a near-even division with the fastball while in Denver. Given the results, it’s hard to find fault with that plan of attack.

The question is how much stock to place in two-plus months of dominance amidst an otherwise inconsistent career. Johnson had never shown anything near the level of control he did in Atlanta. He carried a career 12% walk rate in parts of six big league campaigns with the Cubs, Giants, Padres and Rockies before that trade. As a Brave, he handed out free passes to just 5.6% of opponents.

Johnson has flashed solid ability before, albeit never to the level he demonstrated in Atlanta. He turned in a 3.22 ERA over 58 2/3 frames with San Diego three seasons back. His 2022 campaign was derailed by forearm tendinitis that kept him to 15 appearances, setting the stage for his rebound deal with Colorado. Now, he has locked in the strongest guarantee of his career.

It still has the potential to be solid value for the Braves, as Johnson is being paid towards the lower end of the established range for quality setup arms in their mid-30s. Chris Martin secured $17.5MM over two years with the Red Sox last offseason, while Adam Ottavino got an opt-out clause in a $14.5MM deal with the Mets. Ryan Tepera ($14MM) and Joe Kelly ($17MM) landed similar pacts entering their age-34 campaign two years ago.

Atlanta has a solid bullpen, finishing 11th in ERA (3.81) and fifth in strikeout percentage (25.9%). They were set to potentially lose a few pieces from the group, with Joe Jiménez hitting free agency and various option scenarios for Collin McHugh, Kirby Yates and Brad Hand. The club is likely to decline its options on McHugh and Hand, while a net $4.5MM call on Yates is borderline. Re-signing Johnson locks him in alongside A.J. Minter and potentially Nick Anderson or Tyler Matzek as setup options to Raisel Iglesias. Further augmenting the middle relief seems a priority for president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos and his front office.

The Braves are up to roughly $138MM in guaranteed commitments for next season. The arbitration class could tack on roughly $30MM. Roster Resource projects their luxury tax number in the $206MM range (including arbitration estimates), around $30MM below next year’s $237MM base threshold. The organization opened 2023 with a player payroll around $203MM, so there should still be a decent amount of short-term flexibility. In addition to the bullpen, bolstering the starting staff and perhaps upgrading on Eddie Rosario in left field could be offseason goals.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Luis Avilan Retires

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Reliever Luis Avilán has retired, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post (X link). The Venezuela native pitched in parts of 10 big league seasons with seven teams.

Avilán began his career as an amateur signee with the Braves. He debuted with Atlanta in 2012 and pitched his first three-plus seasons there. Avilán allowed 2.00 earned runs per nine in 36 innings as a rookie and turned in his career season in the second year. He posted a 1.52 ERA through a personal-high 65 frames in 2013 and tacked on 2 2/3 scoreless in the postseason.

After another year and a half in the Atlanta bullpen, Avilán was moved to the Dodgers in a massive 13-player, three-team 2015 deadline deal that also sent Alex Wood to Los Angeles. Avilán spent two and a half years in Southern California. He saw postseason action in both 2015 and ’16 before pitching to a 2.93 ERA over 46 regular season innings in 2017.

Going into the following season, Avilán was involved in another three-team deal. This one — orchestrated between the White Sox, Dodgers and Royals — landed him in Chicago. He’d pitch for five teams over the next four seasons, suiting up with the White Sox, Phillies, both New York franchises and Nationals. His 2021 campaign with Washington was cut short after four outings by an elbow injury that required Tommy John surgery.

That ultimately brought his major league career to an end. Avilán re-signed with the Nats on a minor league deal last year, spending the bulk of the season in Triple-A. He was out of professional baseball entirely this past season and, at age 34, has decided to step away.

Avilán concludes with a 3.43 ERA in 354 major league innings. He recorded 319 strikeouts and kept the ball on the ground for just under half the batted balls he allowed. A situational lefty, he collected 85 holds while limiting same-handed batters to a .204/.279/.281 slash line through nearly 700 plate appearances. MLBTR congratulates Avilán on a decade-long run in the majors and sends our best wishes in his post-playing days.

Front Office Notes: Marlins, Click, Braves

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The Marlins recently parted ways with GM Kim Ng in a somewhat shocking move, considering Miami just made the postseason in a full season for the first time since 2003. Today, Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald discusses the concerns Marlins owner Bruce Sherman had regarding the club’s front office. Per Jackson, ownership’s concerns centered around the club’s player development and drafting apparatus, specifically on the position player side of things. Top position player draft picks for the Marlins under Ng like catcher Joe Mack, infielder Kahlil Watson, and infielder Jacob Berry have all struggled to this point in their professional careers, though Watson is no longer part of the organization after being dealt to Cleveland at the trade deadline this year.

Ultimately, those concerns ended up being the trigger for decisions that led to Ng’s departure from the Marlins, including his desire to install a president of baseball operations above her and his move to pick up the team’s half of a mutual option rather than offer her an extension. Per Jackson, Sherman’s goal in hiring a president of baseball operations above Ng was to have someone else lead a restructuring of the amateur scouting and player development departments of the front office in addition to having a hands-on role in those areas. Jackson adds that Miami’s next president of baseball operations will have to fill out senior-level positions in the front office in addition to restructuring the aforementioned areas; along with Ng’s departure as GM, Jackson adds that senior director of international operations Adrian Lorenzo is departing the organization while senior director of player personnel Billy Masse was never replaced after exiting last offseason.

More front office notes from around the game…

  • As the Red Sox continue their search for the club’s next head of baseball operations, former Astros GM James Click became the latest high-profile candidate to pull himself from consideration for the position today. Per Alex Speier of The Boston Globe, Click talked to the Red Sox about the opportunity but has declined to pursue the organization’s top job, citing family considerations. In doing so, Click joins a number of other candidates who have to decline the spot at the head of Boston’s baseball operations department including former Rangers president of baseball operations Jon Daniels, former Marlins president Michael Hill, and Diamondbacks GM Mike Hazen. Click currently works in Toronto’s front office as vice president of baseball strategy.
  • Per R.J. Anderson of CBS Sports, the Braves have officially promoted Ronit Shah to the role of scouting director. Shah was already running the club’s scouting department in 2023 after previously serving as assistant scouting director under Dana Brown, who departed the organization last offseason to take over as GM of the Astros. Atlanta’s scouting operation has seen great successes in recent years, including last year’s breakout performances by rookies Spencer Strider and Michael Harris II. The pair were drafted in the fourth and third rounds of the 2020 and 2019 drafts, respectively.

Offseason Outlook: Atlanta Braves

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MLB’s best regular season team, the Braves were knocked out by the Phillies in a disappointing Division Series. They’ll bring back the majority of the roster to give things another go in 2024, although they could have a few changes outside the core.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Austin Riley, 3B: $197MM through 2032 (deal includes ’33 club option)
  • Matt Olson, 1B: $132MM through 2029
  • Spencer Strider, RHP: $74MM through 2028 (including buyout of ’29 club option)
  • Sean Murphy, C: $69MM through 2028 (deal includes ’29 club option)
  • Michael Harris II, CF: $67MM through 2030 (including buyout of ’31 club option; deal includes ’32 club option)
  • Ronald Acuña Jr., RF: $61MM through 2026 (including buyout of ’27 club option; deal includes ’28 club option)
  • Raisel Iglesias, RHP: $32MM through 2025
  • Marcell Ozuna, DH: $19MM through 2024 (including buyout of ’25 club option)
  • Ozzie Albies, 2B: $18MM through 2025 (including buyout of ’26 club option; deal includes ’27 club option)
  • Travis d’Arnaud, C: $8MM through 2024 (deal includes ’25 club option)
  • Orlando Arcia, SS: $5MM through 2025 (including buyout of ’26 club option)
  • Tyler Matzek, LHP: $1.9MM through 2024 (deal includes ’25 club option)

Option Decisions

2024 financial commitments: $130.65MM
Total future commitments: $686.65MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Non-tender candidates: Chirinos, Soroka, Lopez, Allard, Heller, Hilliard, Tonkin, Velazquez, Ynoa

Free Agents

For the second straight year, a Braves team that won 100+ games was vanquished by the Phillies in a four-game Division Series. While surely a frustrating endpoint for the organization and its fanbase, they’ll have another crack with the same key group of players that comprised this year’s most dominant regular season team.

In each of the past two winters, the Braves had a marquee impending free agent. There’s no one close to the level of Freddie Freeman or Dansby Swanson this winter, though they’re now just a year away from the potential departure of star southpaw Max Fried.

The most notable potential free agents among this year’s class fall into one of two categories: veterans whose contracts contain a club option or non-closing relievers. Charlie Morton is the biggest name in the former group. The Braves hold a $20MM option on the righty, who worked to a 3.64 ERA across 30 starts.

Morton turns 40 next month and has been noncommittal about his future for a few seasons. He’s clearly comfortable in Atlanta, signing successive one-year contracts going back to 2021. Morton has been reasonably effective that entire time, combining for a 3.77 ERA while taking the ball for 94 starts.

This past season didn’t end as Morton envisioned. He carried a 3.29 ERA into the final month but allowed nearly seven earned runs per nine in September. A minor injury to the index finger on his throwing hand ended his season, although he likely could’ve made it back had the Braves gotten to the NLCS.

The down finish might make the Braves reluctant to commit a $20MM salary. Even if Atlanta balks at that asking price, it stands to reason the sides would have interest in a slightly lesser figure if Morton wants to continue playing. Perhaps negotiating a new deal in the $15MM range could be mutually agreeable.

If Morton retires or signs elsewhere, Atlanta’s rotation depth would become a real question. Spencer Strider and Fried are an elite 1-2 combination. It tails off quickly. While Bryce Elder had a solid rookie season overall, the risk of his pitch-to-contact approach was demonstrated with a 5.11 ERA in the second half. Kyle Wright underwent shoulder surgery and will miss the entire season. Ian Anderson and Huascar Ynoa could return from Tommy John rehabs in the season’s first half; both right-handers had struggled before going under the knife. Allan Winans and Darius Vines seem better suited for depth roles.

Jared Shuster and Dylan Dodd landed season-opening rotation spots this year. Both were hit hard and quickly lost their starting jobs. Michael Soroka pitched well in Triple-A but was tagged for a 6.40 ERA in seven big league appearances. His season ended in early September due to forearm inflammation. With a projected $3MM arbitration salary and enough service time that he can no longer be optioned to the minor leagues without his consent, he may not be tendered a contract. Late-season waiver claim Yonny Chirinos and trade returnee Kolby Allard could be non-tendered as well.

Among the in-house options, 20-year-old righty AJ Smith-Shawver is the most intriguing. He struck out over 31% of minor league opponents and earned his first major league call in May. He had an unspectacular 20:11 strikeout-to-walk ratio over six MLB contests. That shouldn’t stake a firm claim to a rotation spot, but the Braves had sufficient faith to carry him on their playoff roster. Atlanta is aggressive enough in promoting young players that they could give Smith-Shawver a look early in the year.

That may also be true of 2023 first-round pick Hurston Waldrep. The Florida product made it as high as Triple-A Gwinnett in his draft year. He fanned a third of opponents with a 1.53 ERA in his first eight professional starts. In many organizations, Waldrep would’ve closed out the season in the low minors. The Braves move their top talents quickly, and while both Smith-Shawver and Waldrep presently have below-average control, they have strong enough arsenals that they could get on the radar.

Even if the Braves are confident in Smith-Shawver and/or Waldrep factoring in early in the season, they’ll need to bring in starting pitching. Atlanta has shied away from free agency in recent years, preferring to make their big strikes via trade and subsequent contract extensions.

The aren’t a ton of clear rotation trade targets. There’d been speculation about the Brewers trading one of Brandon Woodruff or Corbin Burnes. With Woodruff potentially missing all of next season following shoulder surgery, he’s no longer a possibility. That might take Burnes off the table as well, since Milwaukee would take a major step back if they lose both of their top starters. The Guardians could move Shane Bieber, who’s projected for a $12.2MM salary in his final year of club control and missed most of the second half with forearm inflammation.

Teams will inquire with the White Sox about Dylan Cease, though it’s unclear if Chicago has the appetite for that kind of move. It’s a similar story with the Rays and Tyler Glasnow. Boston’s Nick Pivetta and Cleveland’s Cal Quantrill are potential targets among arbitration-eligible starters.

If the Braves can’t line up a trade, they should have room to go into free agency. They have just under $131MM committed to next year’s roster. The arbitration class should tack on around $25MM pending non-tenders. Exercising Morton’s option or negotiating a slightly lower salary could bring their expenditures to the $170-175MM range.

Atlanta carried an Opening Day payroll just above $203MM this year, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. That’d leave around $25-30MM in spending room if they’re willing to repeat that level. It’s a similar story regarding the luxury tax threshold. The Braves exceeded the base threshold this year. Should they go past next year’s threshold — which begins at $237MM — they’d pay escalating penalties as a repeat payor.

Atlanta’s current CBT estimate sits somewhere in the $190-200MM range. (It’s higher than the actual payroll figure because the CBT calculation includes player benefits and is based off contracts’ average annual values.) The option price or a new deal for Morton could leave them between $20-30MM shy of the base threshold to begin the offseason. There’s nothing to suggest the $237MM CBT number represents a hard barrier for the organization, but it’ll likely be a factor in the front office’s decision-making.

A strike for Blake Snell or Yoshinobu Yamamoto isn’t the Braves’ typical operating procedure. Going into the middle tier of the market for someone like Jack Flaherty, Seth Lugo or Michael Wacha should be viable. If Morton doesn’t return, that’d leave more payroll room if they wanted to make a run at Sonny Gray or Eduardo Rodriguez.

The front office figures to engage Fried’s camp in extension talks. The 2022 Cy Young runner-up is projected for a salary around $14.4MM in his final season of arbitration. He’s on track to reach free agency in advance of his age-31 campaign. Fried should top the six-year, $162MM guarantee that Carlos Rodón received last winter. The contract that Snell lands this offseason could set a new standard for Fried’s camp. The Braves have been the league’s most aggressive team in signing key players to extensions. The Freeman and Swanson scenarios demonstrate they’re not keen to throw top-of-the-market money at all their players, though.

Atlanta also figures to go into free agency for relief help. Joe Jiménez and deadline pickup Pierce Johnson are both headed to free agency. Jiménez had an excellent season and could find a three-year deal. The Braves never entrusted him with high-leverage work, so they seem unlikely to match that kind of commitment. Johnson was utterly dominant after coming off from the Rockies. Retaining him on a two-year pact could be viable.

The Braves could also re-sign Jesse Chavez, who consistently provides them with quality low-leverage innings on salaries barely above the league minimum. They have a pair of option decisions on Collin McHugh and Kirby Yates. The former is likely to be bought out after his strikeout rate plummeted this past season. They could retain Yates, who still has huge strikeout stuff, for an extra $4.5MM after accounting for the option buyout. Atlanta will decline its end of a $7MM mutual option on Brad Hand.

Raisel Iglesias is under contract for another two seasons as the closer. A.J. Minter is a high-leverage lefty. Tyler Matzek should be back after undergoing Tommy John surgery during the 2022 postseason. Yates, Nick Anderson and long man Michael Tonkin could all be retained. Rookie Daysbel Hernández made the playoff roster and offers a high-strikeout, high-walk option.

Even if they can re-sign Johnson, the Braves should add one or two arms to the late innings. A nine-figure strike for Josh Hader seems unlikely, but anyone else in the class could fit. Robert Stephenson, Jordan Hicks and Reynaldo López are among the higher-upside arms in the free agent group. Trade possibilities include Scott Barlow and Kyle Finnegan.

The lone option decision on the position player side is a $9MM provision for Eddie Rosario. It’s a borderline price for the streaky left fielder, who had a .255/.305/.450 showing with 21 home runs in 516 plate appearances this year. While his overall production was average, Rosario’s in-season performance was extremely volatile. He was one of the best hitters on the planet in June, excellent in August, and well below-average in every other month.

If the Braves move on, Tommy Pham, Michael Conforto (if he opts out of his deal with the Giants) and Mark Canha (pending a club option with Milwaukee) could be free agent targets. Alex Verdugo and Ramón Laureano could be on the trade market.

Aside from the Rosario decision, the starting lineup is in place. Michael Harris II and Ronald Acuña Jr. will hold the other outfield spots. Matt Olson, Ozzie Albies, Orlando Arcia and Austin Riley are locked in around the infield. Marcell Ozuna mashed from May onwards and silenced early-season speculation about his future at designated hitter. Sean Murphy and Travis d’Arnaud make for an excellent catching tandem, Murphy’s late-season offensive swoon notwithstanding.

No one would’ve pegged the Braves as a suitor for Murphy going into last winter, so a trade to add to the lineup can’t be entirely ruled out. Acquiring a notable starting pitcher feels more likely given the offense’s strength, however. Should they try to bring in a starter with multiple seasons of club control — thereby providing some cover if Fried walks next offseason — they could dangle middle infielder Vaughn Grissom.

Arcia’s emergence at shortstop kept Grissom mostly in Triple-A this year (although he did make the playoff roster and was improbably called off the bench to take their final at-bat against Matt Strahm). He had an excellent year in Gwinnett, hitting .330/.419/.501 with a 12% walk rate while striking out just 14.1% of the time. The biggest question is where he best fits defensively.

There’s no room for him on the Atlanta infield. The Braves could get Grissom some outfield work as a possible Rosario replacement. If another team feels the 22-year-old (23 in January) projects as a big league ready shortstop or second baseman, he might be more valuable to the Braves as a trade chip. The Mariners (Bryce Miller, Bryan Woo) and Tigers (Reese Olson, Sawyer Gipson-Long) have questions at one or both middle infield spots and could dangle a controllable starter who has shown promise at the major league level. That kind of young player swap is rare but can’t be ruled out, particularly with teams having very little opportunity to add middle infield talent in free agency.

As tends to be the case for president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos and his staff, there’s the potential for a notable move or two. Yet the broad theme of the winter should again be continuity. Brian Snitker will be back for an eighth full season as manager. The most important players are all under contract, with everyone aside from Fried signed for multiple years. The Braves should be a top five team in 2024. Whether that results in a commensurate playoff run won’t be known until October.

In conjunction with this post, Anthony Franco held a Braves-centric chat on 10-18-23. Click here to view the transcript.

21 Players Elect Free Agency

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With the offseason quickly approaching, a number of players elect minor league free agency on a regular basis. Separate from MLB free agents, who reach free agency five days after the World Series by accumulating six years of service time in the big leagues, eligible minor league players can begin electing free agency as soon as the regular season comes to a close. Each of these players were outrighted off of their organization’s 40-man roster at some point during the season and either have been outrighted previously in their career or have the service time necessary to reach free agency since they were not added back to their former club’s rosters. For these players, reaching free agency is the expected outcome, and there will surely be more in the coming weeks. Here at MLBTR, we’ll provide occasional updates as players continue to elect minor league free agency.

Here is the next batch, courtesy of the transaction tracker at MiLB.com:

Catchers

Infielders

Outfielders

Pitchers

Quick Hits: Vogt, Giants, Braves, Phillips, Red Sox

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Mariners bullpen and quality control coach Stephen Vogt will interview with the Giants about their managerial vacancy this week, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports.  The Giants have thus far interviewed only internal candidates about the manager’s job, yet Vogt isn’t exactly a true outsider, having played with the Giants during the 2019 season.  Vogt has plenty of other ties to the Bay Area, as he also played six seasons with the Athletics, and hails from Visalia, California (about a four-hour drive from San Francisco).

Vogt only retired from playing after the 2022 season, and his one season on the Mariners’ staff represents his only coaching experience.  That said, Vogt has been regarded as a future manager for years, so it isn’t surprising seeing him immediately pop up as part of a managerial search even though he is relatively lacking in coaching experience.  All of the candidates linked to the Giants thus far would also be first-time MLB skippers, so clearly the front office isn’t prioritizing a long resume when considering its next dugout hire.

Over 10 Major League seasons, Vogt appeared in 794 games with six different teams.  The big majority (528) of that action came with the A’s, but the Giants rank second on Vogt’s game list with 99 games played.  Vogt also briefly played with the Brewers in 2017, so speculatively speaking, it is possible the Brewers might give him some consideration if Craig Counsell doesn’t return as the manager in 2024.

Some more items from around the baseball world…

  • Some flame-throwing relief help figures to be a target for the Braves this winter, as Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution notes that only two bullpens in baseball threw fewer pitches of 96mph or higher than the Braves did in 2023.  Joe Jimenez and Pierce Johnson contributed a big chunk of the high-velocity pitches Atlanta did throw, yet both relievers will be free agents.  With Jesse Chavez also a free agent and Collin McHugh, Kirby Yates, and Brad Hand all on club or mutual options, “the situation allows the Braves to rebuild their bullpen, if they want,” Toscano writes.  Rookie Daysbel Hernandez could be an option on the high-velo front, as Atlanta thought enough of Hernandez’s potential to include him on their ALDS roster even though injury limited the righty to 3 2/3 innings in his first MLB season.
  • J.D. Martinez was known to be a Red Sox trade candidate heading into the 2022 deadline, and WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford reports that the Dodgers came “very close” to a deal to land the veteran slugger.  However, talks fell through when the Sox asked for Evan Phillips to also be included in the trade package.  At the time, Phillips was partway through a breakout 2022 season that saw him post a 1.14 ERA over 63 innings, and he went on to another outstanding year as the Dodgers’ first-choice closer in 2023 (2.05 ERA over 61 1/3 frames, with 24 saves).  Since the Dodgers pivoted to adding Joey Gallo at that deadline, it’s easy to wonder if Martinez could’ve or would’ve done more to upgrade the lineup, yet it’s hard to fault the team’s logic in wanting to retain Phillips.  As it turned out, L.A. got the best of both worlds in 2023, with Phillips closing games and Martinez delivering a big year at the plate after signing with the Dodgers as a free agent last offseason.

Michael Harris II Has Built On His Rookie Of The Year Campaign

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The breakout performance of center fielder Michael Harris II was one of the most exciting storylines for the Braves last season. The 21-year-old rookie was called up to the big leagues at the end of May in 2022 and never looked back, slashing a fantastic .297/.339/.514 in 441 trips to the plate while swiping 20 bases and playing excellent defense in center field. That performance earned him NL Rookie of the Year honors in addition to a few downballot MVP votes, despite the youngster only appearing in 114 games that season.

The Braves saw enough in Harris’s performance to ink the youngster to an eight-year, $72MM extension before his rookie season had even come to a close, and it’s easy to see why. After all, Harris’ 134 wRC+ ranked in the top-25 among all major league hitters with at least 400 plate appearances last year, and his defense in center field was nothing short of superlative. Only Victor Robles, Myles Straw, and Michael A. Taylor outperformed Harris’s +8 Defensive Runs Saved last year among center fielders, while his +7 Outs Above Average left Harris tied with Cody Bellinger and Alek Thomas for sixth-most among center fielders with at least 250 attempts last year.

That being said, there were potential red flags in Harris’s profile last season that made it fair to wonder if he could replicate his excellent offensive season going forward. Of those, the biggest one was perhaps his strikeout rate. Of the 36 players who posted a wRC+ higher than 130 last season (min. 400 PA), just three of them struck out more often than Harris’s 24.3% rate: Aaron Judge, Mike Trout, and Julio Rodriguez. Harris, who hit 19 home runs in 2022 and posted an ISO of just .217, did not have the titanic power of that aforementioned trio with which to make up for his swing and miss tendencies. In addition, Harris’s 4.8% walk rate was by far the lowest of the bunch. In fact, Harris actually ranked in just the 11th percentile in all of baseball last year in terms of walk rate, per Statcast.

It’s easy to see why Harris was striking out so much. Harris swung at a whopping 41.7% of pitches he saw outside of the strike zone while making contact on just 59.7% of those swings. Only Javier Baez, Nick Castellanos, and Michael Chavis swung and missed at more pitches outside of the zone last year. Harris’s free-swinging approach isn’t helped by pitches in the zone much, either. The youngster posted a roughly average 67.9% swing rate on pitches inside the zone, and his 86.2% contact rate on pitches in the zone was actually slightly below league average last year. Between Harris’s reckless swing decisions and middling power numbers, it was easy to see how he could regress significantly headed into 2023. Advanced metrics agreed with that assessment, as Harris’s .368 wOBA noticeably outstripped his .335 xwOBA in 2022.

Early in the 2023 campaign, it appeared that Harris was indeed destined for a serious sophomore slump. After missing most of April due to a back injury, Harris looked brutal at the plate through the beginning of June. In his first 138 plate appearances of the season, Harris posted a brutal .163/.246/.244 slash line with a 25.4% strikeout rate and just two home runs. That being said, he was still playing his typical excellent defense and had an uncharacteristically low .207 BABIP. That was enough for the Braves to stick with their struggling youngster despite his abysmal start with the bat.

The club’s patience paid off, as Harris hit a phenomenal .335/.360/.552 the rest of the way. That impressive slash line is good for a 142 wRC+, the sixteenth-best figure in the majors over that span and on par with the likes of Bellinger and Bryce Harper. Perhaps most exciting is Harris’s improvement in terms of strikeout rate, as he punched out in just 16.5% of his plate appearances during that 100-game stretch. While Harris continued to swing too often- his 42.3% swing rate on pitches outside of the strike zone was ninth-highest in the majors, even during that torrid stretch- he made far more contact on those swings. Harris made contact on a whopping 69.8% of swings on pitches outside the strike zone while posting a 89.1% contact rate on pitches in the zone.

Taken together, Harris’s improvements in contact rate allowed him to post a strikeout rate of just 18.7% on the year good for the 71st percentile among qualified hitters. Though his cold stretch to open the year left his overall season numbers to fall short of his rookie season, as he posted a wRC+ of just 115 on the year, Harris’s peripherals in 2023 are a far better match for his production, indicating he should be able to sustain this level of offensive production going forward. In fact, Harris’s .345 wOBA in 2023 is actually ten points lower than his .355 xwOBA, indicating there could even be a small amount of positive regression in Harris’s future, if he’s able to build on his improved contact rates in 2024.

Injury Notes: Graveman, Matzek, Hoskins

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Astros right-hander Kendall Graveman was unavailable for the ALDS due to discomfort in his right shoulder, and MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart relays that, per manager Dusty Baker, Graveman’s injury hasn’t improved enough to join the club for the ALCS against the Rangers. The news is a significant blow to the club’s bullpen depth, as Graveman posted a fantastic 2.42 ERA in 23 appearances with the Astros down the stretch after being acquired from the White Sox at the trade deadline this year. That brought his season-long ERA down to an impressive 3.12 figure in 66 1/3 innings of work, though his 4.88 FIP leaves something to be desired thanks to an elevated 12.8% walk rate.

Even without Graveman, Houston is set up fairly well in the bullpen thanks to a trio of Ryan Pressly, Bryan Abreu, and Hector Neris with whom they can close out games. This is Graveman’s second stint with the Astros, as the club previously acquired him from the Mariners in a deal ahead of the trade deadline back in 2021. He was dominant in the postseason for the club that year, posting a 1.64 ERA in 11 innings of work. Graveman is under contract in Houston for 2024 on an $8MM salary.

More injury notes from around the majors…

  • Braves left-hander Tyler Matzek missed the entire 2023 campaign while rehabbing Tommy John surgery, but David O’Brien of The Athletic relayed that the southpaw should be ready to go for Spring Training in February, according to president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulous. Matzek, who is under contract for 2024 with a 2025 club option, was a first-round pick by the Rockies back in 2009, debuted with Colorado as a starting pitcher in 2014 but pitched just 63 2/3 innings in affiliated ball from 2015-2019. He returned to the majors with the Braves in 2020 as a reliever and hasn’t looked back since, with a 2.92 ERA and 3.34 FIP in 135 2/3 innings of work with Atlanta. He figures to feature prominently in the club’s late-inning mix next year alongside closer Raisel Iglesias and fellow southpaw A.J. Minter.
  • Phillies first baseman Rhys Hoskins is still hoping to return to the Phillies in time for the World Series after suffering a torn ACL during Spring Training this year. While Rob Thomson told reporters (per MLB.com) that Hoskins has been “moving forward” in his rehab, it seems as though Hoskins’s role will be fairly limited with the club even in the event he’s able to return to the postseason roster. Per Thomson, Hoskins will be used “almost exclusively” as a pinch-hitter if on the roster, as playing him at DH would require the club to move Kyle Schwarber back into the outfield, a move the club isn’t inclined to make. That said, a healthy Hoskins could be a factor in the club’s starting lineup if another injury elsewhere on the roster opened up playing time at DH for him.
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