Mets Rumors

Brewers, Marlins Interested In Eloy Jimenez

By Mark Polishuk | July 29, 2023 at 10:43am CDT

With the White Sox in seller mode and already dealing away pending free agents, teams are also inquiring about some longer-term players. According to Bruce Levine of 670 The Score, the Brewers and Marlins have both shown interest in outfielder Eloy Jimenez, who is under contract through at least the 2024 season (and controllable through 2026 via two club option years).

There isn’t any indication that Jimenez is being shopped, and reports earlier this month suggested that Jimenez was one of four players (along with Luis Robert Jr., Dylan Cease, and Andrew Vaughn) as virtually untouchable. It is therefore possible that the interest from Milwaukee and Miami was simple due diligence, just in case the Sox were becoming more open to the idea of a wider-scale rebuild.

The White Sox haven’t been solely trading rental players, as Kendall Graveman (dealt yesterday to the Astros) is still under contract through 2024. But needless to say, moving Jimenez would be quite a different situation, as Chicago would be parting ways with a cornerstone player. The Sox signed Jimenez to his six-year, $43MM deal in March 2019 before he had even made his MLB debut, speaking to the confidence the front office had in the outfielder’s potential to lead the club into a new era of winning.

While the club’s on-field success has been limited, Jimenez has held up his end of the bargain at the plate. His .285/.328/.478 slash line over 293 plate appearances this season is pretty close to his overall career line over 1581 PA, but Jimenez’s problem has been just getting onto the field. A ruptured left pectoral tendon cost him over half of the 2021 campaign, and he missed two months of the 2022 season due to a hamstring injury. In 2023, Jimenez has missed roughly a month due to both another minor hamstring issue and an appendectomy.

Jimenez’s lack of defensive value is another issue, as he has posted generally below-average grades as a left fielder. With a number of DH days also required to keep him healthy, there is concern that Jimenez might already be trending towards being a DH-only player before his 27th birthday. This being said, there is still obvious reason why the Brewers, Marlins, or any number of teams would be interested in adding a young, above-average hitter to their lineups, especially at his price point. Jimenez is owed $13MM in 2024, and there are $3MM buyouts both his 2025 club option ($16.5MM) and 2026 option ($18.5MM).

Christian Yelich has been locked into Milwaukee’s left field position, so the Brewers could either test Yelich or Jimenez in right field in the event of a trade. The likelier possibility is that the Brewers would just use Jimenez primarily as a DH, adding some thump to a lineup that has struggled to generate offense this season.

Despite the lack of pop, the Brewers have ridden solid pitching (and a somewhat weak division) to first place in the NL Central. The Brew Crew already picked up Carlos Santana from the Pirates to help address first base, and Will Sammon and Tim Britton of The Athletic report that the Brewers also have interest in Mets outfielder Mark Canha.

The Marlins are similarly hanging in the wild card race without much lineup, particularly in the power department. With Jorge Soler playing mostly as a DH, Miami is more apt to use Jimenez as a left fielder. This might create something of a logjam once Jazz Chisholm Jr. returns from the injured list, but that’s a problem the Marlins are probably happy to have if it means having more offensive options in play.

Dodgers Rumors: Verlander, E-Rod, Singer, Keller, Cardinals, Scherzer, Canha, Pham

By Mark Polishuk | July 29, 2023 at 8:12am CDT

The Dodgers have already both added and subtracted from their pitching mix prior to the deadline, acquiring Lance Lynn and Joe Kelly from the White Sox while also shipping out Noah Syndergaard to the Guardians in exchange for Amed Rosario. Between these moves and the re-acqusition of old friend Enrique Hernandez from the Red Sox, Los Angeles has already checked several boxes on their wishlist with over three days to go until the trade deadline, but more transactions seem likely given the Dodgers’ aggression.

Pitching remains the focus, as while Lynn will theoretically fill one hole, Lynn’s inconsistency and the Dodgers’ relative lack of rotation has put a lot of other hurlers on the team’s radar. According to Jack Harris and Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times, the Dodgers’ list of targets include Justin Verlander, Eduardo Rodriguez, Brady Singer, Mitch Keller, Jack Flaherty, and Jordan Montgomery. Beyond Verlander, the Dodgers are also looking at a couple of other Mets players to address their outfield needs, as The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya reports that Tommy Pham and Mark Canha are of interest.

One Met who apparently isn’t under heavy consideration is Max Scherzer, as Harris/Castillo write that “the likelihood…isn’t as strong” of Scherzer heading to Chavez Ravine at another trade deadline. L.A. memorably landed Scherzer and Trea Turner from the Nationals two years ago, but Scherzer was a rental at the time, just two-plus months away from free agency. Scherzer implied yesterday that he would be exercising his $43.333MM player option for 2024, and with the Mets likely to ask for a strong trade return, the uncertainty over that player option makes Scherzer a pricey add both financially (he is also still owed $16MM for the rest of 2023) and from a prospect cost.

Given how aggressive the Dodgers have been, a Scherzer reunion might not be entirely ruled out until either the team makes another pitching move, or until Scherzer is potentially shipped elsewhere. With Verlander, Pham and Canha also apparently under discussion, the Dodgers’ talks with the Mets could go in several directions between now and Tuesday’s 5pm CT deadline.

Similarly, there are plenty of layers to the negotiations between the Dodgers and Cardinals, as Nolan Arenado is yet another star name Los Angeles has explored. In a move akin to that Scherzer/Turner blockbuster of 2021, the Dodgers could aim to land both a major position player and a rental pitcher (either Montgomery or Flaherty) in the same deal. Harris/Castillo note that L.A. might also pursue either Montgomery or Flaherty on their own, should the more complicated machinations of an Arenado deal fall through.

Rodriguez has drawn attention from several other teams as the deadline approaches, and the Tigers left-hander’s status is also impacted by a contractual option. Rodriguez has the ability to opt out of his contract after the season, leaving three years and $49MM on the table in search of a richer and longer-term deal. An opt-out seems like a distinct possibility the way E-Rod has been pitching, yet an injury or a drop in form (with the Tigers or a new team) could certainly still occur post-deadline, leading to a change in his thinking. If this did happen after a trade, a new club could find itself on the books for $49MM of a suddenly distressed asset, which surely factors into the thinking of the Dodgers and any other team considering the southpaw.

Beyond these veteran rental players, the Dodgers are also slightly expanding their perimeters to look at more controllable pitchers. The Pirates have arbitration control on Keller through the 2025 season, while the Royals have Singer arb-controlled through 2026. Keller seems like the longer shot, as Pittsburgh is perhaps only listening to trade offers out of due diligence, and would command a huge prospect return in any deal. While Los Angeles is one of the teams with the prospect depth to perhaps get the Pirates’ attention, it doesn’t seem likely that the Bucs will move Keller anywhere at the deadline or even in the near future, as Pittsburgh may have an eye on fully turning the corner back into contending in 2024.

“No traction toward a deal has materialized” between the Dodgers and Royals, so Singer is probably also not on the move. The former first-rounder has a breakout season in 2022 but has struggled to a 5.46 ERA over 113 2/3 innings this year, albeit with a somewhat more favorable 4.41 SIERA. It is possible that L.A. was looking to buy low on the righty (who turns 27 next week), just in case Kansas City was considering a wider-range rebuild in the wake of its disastrous 2023 season. The Royals are in a tough spot given the lack of production from almost all of their projected cornerstone young players, yet while it isn’t clear what the next step will be for the franchise, it does seem too soon for K.C. to give up on Singer, one of the few members of that group who has had some level of success in the majors.

Returning to Verlander, he would also bring a bit more control than a rental player, as he owed $43.333MM in 2024 and he can earn a $35MM player option for 2025 if he pitches at least 140 innings in 2024. It’s a steep price tag for a pitcher who turns 41 in February, as even though Verlander has pitched closer to his vintage form in the last few weeks, he missed time earlier this year due to a teres major strain and was then shaky in his first few starts of 2023.

Perhaps more relevant to August 1, Verlander has a full no-trade clause in his contract, and said earlier this week that “I’m focused on being a Met. I want to win here…Obviously it hasn’t gone according to plan just yet, but I didn’t sign a one-year deal.” Since the Mets have already started to trade veterans and look ahead to 2024, it is possible Verlander might change his mind should a contender make an offer, and there has been a connection between Verlander and Los Angeles in the past. The Dodgers pushed to sign Verlander in free agency last winter, with Harris/Castillo writing that L.A. offered the future Hall-of-Famer two years and $80MM.

Max Scherzer Discusses Future With Mets

By Anthony Franco | July 28, 2023 at 10:20pm CDT

The Mets kicked off what’s likely to be a deadline sell-off last night, sending David Robertson to Miami. It’d seemed a long time in the making with New York unable to get above .500 but still marked a symbolic blow for a team that entered the year with championship aspirations.

How aggressively New York will retool the roster remains to be seen. Short-term veterans like Tommy Pham, Brooks Raley and Mark Canha seem likely to move within the next few days. There’s been increasing chatter about a pair of much bigger names: Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander.

After his start tonight, Scherzer spoke with the New York beat about his future (relayed by Anthony DiComo of MLB.com). While he conceded the roster “put (itself) in this position” by not playing up to expectations, he noted his disappointment with the club’s situation. Regarding both whether he still had confidence in the team to compete in 2023 and his longer-term future with the organization, Scherzer said he was likely to speak with the front office about the club’s direction.

Scherzer declined to say whether he’d be willing to waive his no-trade rights. However, he seemed to tip his hand regarding the $43.333MM player option in his contract for next season. The three-time Cy Young winner said he’s “not going to be a free agent,” distinguishing this from the 2021 deadline when Scherzer waived his no-trade clause to go from the Nationals to the Dodgers three months before free agency.

The star hurler didn’t directly say he was a lock to opt in to next season. His contract with Washington didn’t have any option years, so there was no question he was headed to free agency that winter. Between his no-trade rights and player options, Scherzer has the ability to ensure he’s a Met in 2024. He added he “can see a path to contend next year” with New York but noted that’s pending a conversation with team brass.

Scherzer’s comments surely won’t quiet speculation about the chances of another deadline blockbuster. Yet they’re far from ensuring a move will happen. Even if Scherzer were willing to waive his no-trade rights, the Mets would need to find a deal they consider tenable. Andy Martino of SNY wrote this afternoon the Mets were finding more interest in Verlander of the two pitchers.

Both are making a record annual salary north of $43MM. Verlander is under guaranteed contract next season and has a vesting player option for 2025. Scherzer owns a 4.01 ERA through 107 2/3 innings. He’s striking hitters out at a quality 27.3% clip and limiting walks but has struggled with home runs.

Latest On Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer

By Steve Adams | July 28, 2023 at 1:47pm CDT

The Mets’ sell-off began in earnest last night when they traded David Robertson to the division-rival Marlins, and further deals are widely expected to come together in the days leading up to Tuesday’s trade deadline. Veteran outfielders Mark Canha and Tommy Pham can be free agents at season’s end — Canha has a 2024 club option — and figure to hold interest to contenders seeking right-handed bats and/or general outfield help. But perhaps no two players will be of as much interest to fans in the next few days as future Hall of Famers Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer.

Andy Martino of SNY reports that the Mets have thus far received “moderate” interest in Verlander but have not had meaningful enough talks to even approach the three-time Cy Young winner about waiving his no-trade clause. Scherzer has drawn less interest, per Martino.

Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reported late last night that a pair of executives with other clubs believe there’s a real chance the Mets will ultimately trade Verlander. He listed the Rangers and Astros as potential fits, and Martino adds (without directly tying them to Verlander) that the Angels and Reds have been scouting the Mets of late. Feinsand adds that the Rangers were in on Verlander in the offseason, but the 40-year-old righty was more keen on signing with what he viewed as a contending club in Queens. It’s only reasonable to think he’d view the Rangers more favorably now; Texas is leading the AL West and owns the third-best winning percentage and top run differential in the American League. He’s certainly no stranger to pitching in Texas either, having spent several years with the Astros.

Obviously, there would be plenty of obstacles to any trade actually coming together. First and foremost, both Verlander and Scherzer have full no-trade clauses in their contracts. They’d have to approve any deal, although one can imagine that the opportunity to go from a struggling Mets team into the type of playoff chase both envisioned when signing in New York would be quite enticing. Both players are also earning a record $43.333MM annual salary on the contracts they signed in free agency — a massive number which would rule some contending clubs out entirely. Owner Steve Cohen could of course pay down some of that salary in order to facilitate a trade, but the specifics of how much cash to include and what caliber of prospects to send back for either multi-time Cy Young winner would be difficult to broker.

Beyond the contractual hurdles, the simple fact is that neither Verlander nor Scherzer has pitched as well in 2023 as in recent seasons. Verlander’s 3.24 ERA is a perfect match for his career mark, but this year’s 20.9% strikeout rate 8.2% walk rate are nowhere close to last year’s respective rates of 27.8% and 4.4%. Verlander’s 94.6 mph average fastball, 10% swinging-strike rate and 34.9% opponents’ chase rate are all down slightly from last year’s levels of 95.1 mph, 11.6% and 36.9%, as well.

Verlander, who missed the first five weeks of the season due to a strained teres major, is guaranteed $43.333MM this year and next. His contract contains a conditional $35MM player option for the 2025 season that would vest if he pitches 140 innings next year.

As for Scherzer, he’s sporting a 4.20 ERA that would be the second-highest mark of his career — his worst since a 4.43 showing way back in 2011. His 27.4% strikeout rate and 6.7% walk rate are down from his 2022 levels (30.6% and 4.2%) but still remain considerably better than the league average. However, he’s also giving up home runs at the highest rate of his career. Scherzer has yielded an average of 1.97 round-trippers per nine innings pitched and seen a whopping 16.8% of his fly-balls leave the yard. The latter of those two numbers seems bound for some regression, but Scherzer is giving up hard contact at his highest levels since Statcast began tracking batted-ball data (89.1 mph average exit velocity, 10.3% barrel rate, 38.7% hard-hit rate).

Scherzer is in the second season of a three-year, $130MM contract pays him $43.333MM annually, but he has the right to opt out of the final year of that deal this winter. Barring a return to vintage form over the final couple months, he’s unlikely to match that type of payday on the open market. However, Scherzer suggested prior to the season that the opt-out was negotiated into his contract in large part to see where the organization stood at that point. He knew his now-former teammate Jacob deGrom had a looming opt-out in his deal and wanted to ensure that the Mets would remain committed to fielding a winning club in the event deGrom departed. The Mets certainly strived to do so in 2023, but things haven’t worked out.

Reports have since suggested that Scherzer is willing to waive his no-trade clause, which is only sensible if winning is his his top priority. His willingness to do so hardly guarantees that a deal will come to fruition, but with the Mets beginning to trade short-term veterans, both Scherzer and Verlander figure to be oft-discussed names over the next four days.

Marlins Acquire David Robertson

By Anthony Franco | July 27, 2023 at 11:50pm CDT

The Mets and Marlins pulled off a late-night divisional swap on Thursday. Miami acquired veteran reliever David Robertson in exchange for low minors prospects Marco Vargas and Ronald Hernandez. The Fish transferred Matt Barnes to the 60-day injured list to clear a 40-man roster spot.

Robertson was one of the top rental relievers on the trade market for the second straight summer. The Cubs flipped the right-hander to the Phillies at last year’s deadline, bringing back pitching prospect Ben Brown. Robertson helped Philadelphia’s run to a pennant in 2022; he’ll hope for a similar late-season push in Miami.

Signed to a one-year, $10MM free agent deal over the offseason, the former All-Star was supposed to assume a key setup role in Queens. Edwin Díaz’s freak knee injury pushed Robertson into the ninth inning unexpectedly. While much of the New York roster has underperformed, the 15-year MLB veteran had a very strong few months in Flushing.

Robertson owns a 2.05 ERA across 44 innings. He’s well on his way to what’d be the sixth sub-3.00 showing of his career. He’s striking out just under 28% of opposing hitters while generating whiffs on a quality 13.1% of his offerings. Robertson’s command had been spotty in 2022 — perhaps a reflection of rust after injuries cost him the bulk of the 2019-21 seasons — but he’s dialed the strike-throwing back in this season. Robertson has walked only 7.6% of batters faced.

He’s 14-17 in save opportunities and has picked up an additional seven holds. Robertson has dominated right and left-handed hitters alike this season and brings a rare consistency for a single-inning reliever. He’ll take on a key high-leverage role for the Fish, likely taking over closing duties. Left-handers Tanner Scott and A.J. Puk are also in the late innings. Miami’s bullpen was a bit thinner on right-handed options, so they’ll bring in Robertson one day after a swap of change-of-scenery relievers sent Dylan Floro to Minnesota for Jorge López.

The intra-division swap serves as a reminder of how disappointing the Mets’ 2023 campaign has been. New York, coming off a 101-win season and running the highest payroll in MLB history, entered the year with championship aspirations. Miami was viewed more as an upstart, a team with plenty of young talent that faced an uphill battle to finish higher than fourth in their division.

Four months later, the Marlins are buying from the Mets. Miami held a Wild Card spot for the bulk of the season. They’ve hit a cold spell, dropping nine of their last 11. They now find themselves outside the playoff picture but only marginally, as they’re half a game behind Cincinnati for the National League’s last postseason spot.

With a real chance to make the playoffs in a 162-game schedule for the first time in two decades, the Fish will deal from the low minors to add immediate MLB help. Now that they’ve fortified the bullpen, general manager Kim Ng and her staff could try to bolster the position player group in the coming days. They’ve been tied to infielders like Tim Anderson and Jeimer Candelario in recent days.

Miami appears to have some financial breathing room. Marlins’ owner Bruce Sherman implied as much a few weeks ago, and they’ll put that into practice by taking on the roughly $3.55MM owed to Robertson through season’s end. The Mets haven’t been shy about potentially paying down contracts to facilitate a better prospect return. That apparently wasn’t necessary in Miami’s case. Roster Resource had calculated the Marlins’ payroll around $103.6MM before the deal; it’ll jump past $107MM at this point.

The cash savings for the Mets will go beyond what Miami assumes in salary. Any money which New York offloads would also come with a 90% savings in luxury taxes which the club had been set to pay. The Mets save around $3.2MM in taxes and approximately $6.7MM overall.

More meaningfully, the organization adds a pair of intriguing low level talents. Vargas, 18, is a left-handed hitting infielder out of Mexico. He’d ranked 20th among Miami prospects at Baseball America coming into the season, though BA’s Josh Norris tweets that he was rising up the ranks after impressing evaluators in the complex league this summer.

The outlet’s preseason report praised Vargas’ bat-t0-ball skills and suggested he’s likely to fit best defensively at second base. Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs ranked him ninth in the Marlins’ system at the end of May, similarly praising his hit tool. Vargas has a .283/.457/.442 line with nearly twice as many walks as strikeouts in 33 games this year.

Hernandez, 19, is a switch-hitting backstop from Venezuela. He’s repeating the level at the complex league but raking at a .298/.464/.452 clip over 31 games. FanGraphs ranked him 24th in the Miami system, crediting his advanced hit tool and above-average arm strength. There’s ample variability in targeting players this young, but each of Vargas and Hernandez seems to have a shot at being an everyday player down the line if they develop as hoped.

That’ll be little consolation for the Mets in the short term. Moving Robertson confirms their increasingly obvious place as deadline sellers. Other potential free agents like Tommy Pham, Carlos Carrasco and Mark Canha (whose contract contains a ’24 club option) could follow Robertson out the door. The Mets may not have the appetite for a larger-scale rebuild, but their place in the standings this year has gotten too hard to ignore.

Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic first reported the Marlins were acquiring Robertson. Rosenthal and Will Sammon first reported the Mets were receiving two minor league hitters in return. Jon Heyman of the New York Post was first with the return of Vargas and Hernandez. The Post’s Joel Sherman confirmed the Marlins were taking on all of Robertson’s remaining money.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Mets Have Not Approached Justin Verlander About Deadline Trade

By Darragh McDonald | July 26, 2023 at 10:46am CDT

The Mets are expected to do some selling before the August 1 trade deadline but they have not approached Justin Verlander about any potential trade talks. That’s notable since the veteran has a full no-trade clause and would need to sign off on any deal before it could be completed.

“I would hope that if there was any chance of that, Billy would come and talk to me and that hasn’t happened,” Verlander said to Deesha Thosar of Fox Sports yesterday, referring to general manager Billy Eppler. “I’m focused on being a Met. I want to win here… Obviously it hasn’t gone according to plan just yet, but I didn’t sign a one-year deal.”

The Mets and owner Steve Cohen ran up the biggest payroll in MLB history for this season but that hasn’t translated into the on-field results they were hoping for. They are currently 47-53, a distant fourth place in the National League East and seven games back in the Wild Card race. It was about a month ago that Cohen addressed the club’s lackluster results and said it would be “silly” to make additions. The club was 8.5 games back of the postseason at that time, and though they are slightly closer now, it still seems like they might have their sights set on 2024.

It’s expected that the club might at least look to move some impending free agents such as Tommy Pham, Carlos Carrasco and David Robertson, or players with 2024 options like Mark Canha and Adam Ottavino. Verlander would be a very different situation. Part of the club’s spending spree in the winter was signing him to a two-year, $86.67MM deal, with a $35MM player option for 2025 that’s conditional on him throwing 140 innings next year.

There are various factors in there that would make a trade complicated. One is that Verlander hasn’t quite been as dominant as last year’s Cy Young campaign. He’s allowing 3.24 earned runs per nine innings this year, a solid number in a vacuum but one that’s almost double his 1.75 mark from a year ago. His strikeout rate has dropped from last year’s 27.8% to 20.9% this year, while his walk rate has gone from 4.4% to 8.2%.

Some of that might be explained by the fact that he started the season on the injured list due to a shoulder strain and didn’t debut until May. He has a much stronger 2.44 ERA since the start of June and a 1.69 in July alone. But the overall season in his age-40 campaign may have given some other clubs hesitation regardless, especially considering his massive salary. Then the no-trade clause adds another wrinkle, as Verlander would have to approve any deal that the Mets could line up. It wouldn’t be unprecedented, as Verlander previously approved a trade from the Tigers to the Astros in 2017, but that doesn’t necessarily mean those stars could align again.

The cash part of the deal might not be a total obstacle, at least judging by the way the Mets have behaved under Cohen. In addition to spending heavily in free agency, the club has shown a willingness to eat money in trades in order to tip the scales on the talent side. They flipped infielder Eduardo Escobar to the Angels last month, eating all of his salary in order to get a pair of prospects. They also took Chris Flexen’s deal off the hands of the Mariners in order to acquire Trevor Gott earlier this month, immediately designating Flexen for assignment.

It’s possible the Mets have had some internal discussions about doing a similar thing with Verlander’s deal, though that would clearly be in a different stratosphere. Escobar is making $9.5MM this year and only had about half of that left to be paid out at the time of his trade, while the Mets took on about $8.5MM in the Gott deal when factoring in luxury tax payments. But Verlander will still be owed about $14MM from this year’s deadline to the end of the season, plus another $43.33MM next year and the $35MM player option looming after that.

It’s entirely possible that Cohen is willing to eat that massive sum in order to obtain some prospects, since he keeps surpassing the expectations of what an owner is willing to spend. But there would be complications for the Mets beyond the money, namely the additional hole it would make in next year’s rotation. Though the club may do some selling this year, there’s nothing to indicate they’re embarking on a years-long rebuild, as they are expected to try to compete again in 2024.

As mentioned, Carrasco is an impending free agent and isn’t slated to be back even if he’s not moved at the deadline. José Quintana’s contract runs through 2024 but he’s drawn some trade interest recently. Max Scherzer also has one year left on his deal but has an opt-out opportunity this offseason.

That leaves Kodai Senga, with four more years on his contract after this one, as the most sure thing in the rotation next year. Scherzer isn’t having a typically dominant season with a 4.20 ERA, so it doesn’t seem like he’s trending towards opting out, but a strong finish to the season could always change things. Regardless, trades of Quintana and/or Verlander would further deplete the group. They have some internal options with David Peterson, Tylor Megill and Joey Lucchesi, but they’d obviously be better with a healthy and effective Verlander.

With the deadline now less than a week away and the complicated nature of any theoretical Verlander deal, it seems like the club doesn’t have any plans on shopping him around. That points to him likely returning to Queens in 2024, just after his 41st birthday, and hoping the Mets fare better in his second year as a Met.

NL Notes: Rockies, Matz, Winker, Brewers, Ziegler

By Mark Polishuk | July 24, 2023 at 10:37pm CDT

The Rockies’ injury-plagued season has extended into the club’s farm system, as MLB.com’s Thomas Harding (via Twitter) reports that pitching prospects Gabriel Hughes, Jackson Cox, and Jordy Vargas will all undergo Tommy John surgeries this week. Dr. Keith Meister will perform all of the procedures, as well as the previously reported TJ surgery for veteran righy-hander Antonio Senzatela.

It’s a brutal setback for the three youngsters, all ranked by MLB Pipeline among the Rockies’ top 12 overall prospects, and Pipeline lists the trios as three of Colorado’s top four pitching prospects. Hughes was the 10th overall pick of the 2022 draft, Cox was a second-round pick in that same draft, and the 19-year-old Vargas was an international signing in 2021. Hughes was the furthest along of the trio since he made his Double-A debut this season, but now all three pitchers have been dealt a big setback in their young careers. Given the usual recovery timeline for Tommy John procedures, there’s a chance any of Hughes, Cox, or Vargas might be able to return late in the 2024 campaign, but it is likelier that the right-handers will all be sidelined until 2025.

NL East Notes: Candelario, Marlins, Pham, Phillies, Dominguez, Hoskins

By Mark Polishuk | July 23, 2023 at 5:21pm CDT

The Marlins have interest in Nationals third baseman Jeimer Candelario, as USA Today’s Bob Nightengale writes that Miami views “Candelario as a perfect fit.” With a cumulative -0.9 bWAR posted by Marlins third basemen this season, no team has received less from the hot corner than the Fish, as Jean Segura’s resurgence over the last few weeks haven’t been enough to erase his very rough performance over the first three months. Segura could move into a utility role in the event of a Candelario trade, as Luis Arraez is a lineup fixture at second base, Jorge Soler is primarily a DH, and the hot-hitting Garrett Cooper is the primary first baseman.

Candelario is one of the more obvious trade candidates available heading into the deadline, as the Nationals are out of the race and Candelario will be a free agent after the season. After a poor 2022 season with the Tigers, Candelario has bounced back nicely to hit .254/.333/.474 with 15 homers over 390 plate appearances with Washington. He is owed roughly $1.8MM in remaining salary this season, which is a modest sum anyway but shouldn’t be a problem for the Marlins — owner Bruce Sherman has promised financial “resources” for deadline additions. Of course, Sherman’s statement came before Miami suffered through an eight-game losing streak out of the All-Star break, but the Fish got back into the win column with today’s 3-2 win over the Rockies.

Giants Interested In Justin Verlander

By Mark Polishuk | July 22, 2023 at 10:55pm CDT

With the Giants in pursuit of at least a wild card berth and maybe the NL West crown, San Francisco is looking to make some additions at the trade deadline. At least one of those possibilities is a big name, as MLB Network’s Jon Morosi (Twitter link) reports that the Giants are one of the clubs interested if Justin Verlander opts to waive his no-trade clause to join another team.

The 45-51 Mets are 6.5 games behind the Phillies for the final NL wild card slot, and four other teams sit between Philadelphia and New York in the wild card standings. While the Mets have a 9-5 record thus far in July, they may already be in too deep a hole to mount a serious charge at the postseason, and it looks like the club will be sellers in some respect at the deadline barring a big winning streak between now and August 1. Given the Mets’ record payroll, they might well wait until close to the last minute before the deadline to determine the extent (if at all) of their selloff, as the Amazins might only look to move pending free agents, or they could make a more significant move in dealing a controlled asset like Verlander.

One of the top players available in the 2022-23 offseason, Verlander signed a two-year, $86.66MM deal to join the Mets, and the contract also contains a $35MM vesting option for 2025 (Verlander gets that $35MM player option if he tosses at least 140 innings in 2024). A teres major strain near the end of Spring Training delayed Verlander’s Mets debut until May 4, and while there was some rust over his first month of action, Verlander has more recently started to display his usual form. The right-hander has a 1.74 ERA over his last five starts and 31 innings, though his strikeout rate (20.8%) and walk rate (10.4%) haven’t yet normalized.

These numbers, the large salary, and Verlander’s age (40) stand out as red flags for a possible trade suitors, though these concerns are also perhaps simply outweighed by Verlander’s incredible track record. It was just last season that Verlander won the AL Cy Young Award and helped lead the Astros to a World Series title, and even his recent outings suggest that he has plenty left in the tank. An argument can also be made that Verlander might benefit from a change of scenery, with the ideal scenario being his last stint as a trade candidate. Verlander was already pitching well for the Tigers in 2017 but his performance was kicked into a higher gear when Detroit moved him to Houston on August 31, resulting in Verlander playing a big part in the Astros’ first championship.

It is worth noting that Verlander waived a previous no-trade clause in his Tigers contract to accommodate that 2017 deal, though the Astros agreed to waive a $22MM vesting option that was included for the 2020 season. If Verlander was open to a trade this summer, he might first insist that his potential $35MM in 2025 get turned into a player option right away, without the vesting threshold. Of course, this is just speculative and Verlander might be willing to waive his no-trade protection entirely to join a contender, but it is an example of the leverage that he holds in whatever trade talks the Mets might explore with other teams.

Even taking on an extra $35MM in 2025 wouldn’t necessarily be an obstacle for the Giants, who don’t have much in the way of long-term payroll commitments on their books. Acquiring Verlander would also represent a win in the team’s longstanding search to land a face-of-the-franchise superstar, after coming up short on signing Aaron Judge in the offseason and having their deal with Carlos Correa scuttled due to medical concerns. This isn’t the first time San Francisco has been linked to Verlander, as the Giants were one of the many teams who had scouts attending Verlander’s showcase when he was a free agent in the 2021-22 offseason.

Despite the high price tag of Verlander’s contract, the length of the deal fits the Giants’ general preference for shorter-term contracts, especially for pitchers. Most of San Francisco’s current rotation consists of veteran starters on two-year or three-year contracts, and since Alex Wood and (pending a club option) Alex Cobb might both free agents this winter, trading for Verlander would provide a top-shelf upgrade both for this year’s playoff run and at least through the 2024 campaign.

Returning to the financial aspect, it is possible that Verlander’s salary might not even be the Giants’ problem, should the Mets agree to pay most or all of his salary in order to land a better prospect return. This would represent a larger-scale version of the strategy the Mets have already employed in earlier moves this summer (trading Eduardo Escobar to the Angels and temporarily acquiring Chris Flexen from the Mariners), as owner Steve Cohen has no issue in spending big, whether that means acquiring MLB talent or in using the payroll to accommodate the acquisition of premium young talent. Considering that the Mets still plan to contend in 2024, they would naturally want some big league-ready help if they moved a front-of-the-rotation arm like Verlander.

José Quintana Drawing Trade Interest

By Darragh McDonald | July 21, 2023 at 9:55am CDT

Mets left-hander José Quintana has spent the entire season on the injured list until this week, only making his debut as a Met yesterday. Nonetheless, he’s drawing interest from other clubs around the league ahead of the trade deadline, reports Andy Martino of SNY.

Quintana, 34, had a strong campaign last year, split between the Pirates and Cardinals. He tossed 165 2/3 innings over 32 starts, allowing just 2.93 earned runs per nine innings. His 20.2% strikeout rate was a bit below average, but he paired that with a strong 46.4% ground ball rate and 6.9% walk rate. He was able to parlay that into a two-year, $26MM deal with the Mets coming into 2023, a small part of the club’s massive offseason that saw them run up the highest payroll in MLB history this year.

Unfortunately, he was shut down in the spring and required bone graft surgery for a benign lesion on one of his ribs. That kept him on the shelf until he began a rehab assignment last month and he has just now returned to the big leagues. That absence from Quintana is just one of many challenges the Mets have faced in their rotation this year, as Justin Verlander and Carlos Carrasco have also spent time on the injured list while Max Scherzer missed time due to a sticky stuff suspension. That’s left Kodai Senga as the only consistent member of the rotation this season.

The club now finds itself in an uncomfortable position, with just over a week until the trade deadline. They have a record of 45-51, which puts them 17.5 games back in the division and seven games back in the Wild Card race. FanGraphs currently pegs their postseason odds at 15.1%, still giving them a chance but surely less than what they hoped for during their aggressive winter.

Owner Steve Cohen spoke to the media last month in order to address the club’s disappointing season. He said that it would be “silly” to make additions at the deadline if the club didn’t change its position. They were 8.5 games out of the playoffs at that time and have inched closer but are still on the fringes of contention.

Perhaps a hot streak in the next week or so will change the picture, but it seems as though the club might consider selling some short-term assets before reloading for another shot at competing in 2024. They have already traded Eduardo Escobar to the Angels and it was reported this week that Mark Canha is drawing some interest. Impending free agents like Carrasco, David Robertson, Tommy Pham are also logical candidates to be discussed.

Quintana would be a bit of a different situation for the Mets, and there’s nothing in the above report to indicate they have actually entertained the idea of moving him, just that other clubs are interested. He still has another year left on his deal, which means the Mets could spurn that interest and hang onto him for 2024.

Their rotation has some question marks for next year, with Carrasco set to reach free agency and create at least one vacancy. Scherzer also has the ability to opt out of his deal, leaving his $43.33MM salary for 2024 on the table. It’s hard to say whether he would do so or not, given that he’s about to turn 39 in a few days and isn’t having a dominant season. His strikeout and walk rates are both a couple of ticks worse than last year while his 3.99 ERA is a big jump from last year’s 2.29.

On paper, the Mets have Verlander, Senga and Quintana for next year’s rotation, along with the uncertain Scherzer situation and players like Tylor Megill, David Peterson and Joey Lucchesi as internal options to take Carrasco’s spot. The upcoming free agent class is heavy on pitching and Cohen has clearly demonstrated he’s not shy about spending, so perhaps they feel they have a path to a strong rotation next year, but moving Quintana would give them one more thing on their to-do list in the upcoming offseason.

If Quintana is available, it seems fair to expect the Mets to eat most or all of the remainder of his contract in order to extract the best possible return in terms of player talent. That’s been the club’s tactic in the aforementioned Escobar deal, as well as the Trevor Gott/Chris Flexen trade and James McCann trade. That should make him theoretically attainable by any contending club, regardless of their payroll situation, as long as they are willing to part with something the Mets want.

As mentioned, there’s nothing at this moment to indicate the Mets are actively shopping Quintana, but he would surely be of interest to clubs given his lengthy track record and success last year. The Mets will have to make some tough decisions soon, given their precarious place in the standings. Part of that might involve weighing the value of Quintana’s potential contribution to the 2024 club against whatever trade offers they receive. The trade deadline is August 1.

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