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Archives for October 2012

Olney On Hamilton, Brewers, Lohse

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The Brewers could pursue Josh Hamilton this offseason if the free agent outfielder doesn’t get any offers for four-plus years and more than $100MM, ESPN.com's Buster Olney writes. Here are more notes from Olney’s column…

  • The Brewers aren’t positioned to give Hamilton a massive contract, but they can offer him a comfortable place to play where he’d be supported. Johnny Narron, his former mentor, works as Milwaukee’s hitting coach, and Brewers bench coach Jerry Narron also knows the 31-year-old. While many outsiders lack detailed information about Hamilton’s off-field issues, the Narron brothers know the outfielder well enough to make a determination about his ability to continue producing.
  • At this point the Brewers intend to pursue multiple starters this offseason.
  • General managers expect free agent starting pitchers to do well this year, since there’s a shortage of viable options at a time that many teams are flush with dollars. The Blue Jays, Royals, Cubs and Angels are among the many teams known to be seeking starting pitching.
  • Some agents and general managers believe free agent starter Kyle Lohse could command a deal in the $60-75MM range, Olney reports.

Cubs Acquire Marcelo Carreno

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The Cubs acquired minor league right-hander Marcelo Carreno and cash considerations from the Tigers to complete the August trade involving Jeff Baker, the Tigers announced (on Twitter). The Tigers acquired Baker from the Cubs for two players to be named later on August 5th only to send him to Atlanta for another PTBNL four weeks later.

Carreno, 21, just completed his fifth season in the Tigers organization. He spent the 2012 campaign with Class A West Michigan, posting a 3.23 ERA with 7.7 K/9 and 1.8 BB/9 in 139 1/3 innings over the course of 27 starts.

Offseason Outlook: Chicago Cubs

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The Cubs enter the 2012-13 offseason with multiple needs, but their pitching staff requires the most attention at this point.

Guaranteed Contracts 

Arbitration Eligible Players (estimated salaries)

Contract Options

  • None

Free Agents

Sometimes the second offseason under a new front office can be the first 'normal' winter for a team's baseball operations department. A year ago, in the first offseason under Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer, the Cubs had to conduct a managerial search, fill out their front office and create a plan for player development. Now, as the Cubs begin their second winter led by Epstein and Hoyer, team executives can focus on their primary task: turning a 101-loss team into a contender and, eventually, bringing that elusive World Series title to the North Side of Chicago.

Jeff Samardzija - Cubs (PW)

The Cubs spent in excess of $100MM on payroll in each of the past five seasons, so we know the resources are there. Yet to this point, they've committed just $42MM to next year's team, not accounting for arbitration eligible players. That should provide lots of flexibility for Cubs executives, but if last offseason provides any indication, they won't spend for the sake of spending. Instead, the Cubs figure to complete short-term free agent contracts and trades.

The Cubs could start by dealing one of their most experienced players. Alfonso Soriano had a good year in 2012, posting .262/.322/.499 batting line and hitting 32 home runs (reaching the 100 RBI-threshold won't hurt his value, either). Though Soriano has made it clear he'd consider waiving his no-trade rights, president of baseball operations Theo Epstein has said he won't deal the 36-year-old unless the Cubs get something of value in return. It's hard to envision Soriano's trade value rising much from here, so if the Cubs intend to create room for younger players and free up some salary, it's now time to make a move.

The Cubs will also need a contingency plan for center field. Just about half of Brett Jackson's at bats (59 of 120) ended in strikeouts this year, an indication that he won't make enough contact to maintain a respectable on-base average. He has some power, plays a premium position and can draw walks, but his contact skills create legitimate questions about the likelihood that he'll realize the potential that placed him on many top prospect lists earlier in his career.

Between a possible trade for Soriano and the need for a legitimate option behind Jackson, the Cubs could be in the market for outfielders this offseason. They could wait on a deep class of free agent outfielders or contact teams like the Diamondbacks and Twins, who have enviable outfield depth.

If the Cubs retain Luis Valbuena they'll be set at all four infield positions, with Starlin Castro, Darwin Barney and Anthony Rizzo occupying the three other spots. The Cubs could look to improve their catching depth following a season in which Chicago catchers placed 28th of the 30 MLB teams in OPS (.616). The free agent market seems relatively strong at catcher this year, and the Cubs could call teams such as the Blue Jays about possible trades.

The Cubs have a mid-sized group of arbitration eligible players that includes a number of non-tender candidates. Chris Volstad figures to be cut loose following a poor season; Ian Stewart's wrist issues place him in uncertain territory; Manny Corpas' chances of returning seem slim. Valbuena, the team's fourth non-tender candidate, has earned praise from his manager, an indication he could start the 2013 season as the Cubs' third baseman. Still, management might prefer to have options other than Valbuena and 23-year-old prospect Josh Vitters.

Jeff Samardzija has emerged as an extension candidate following his breakout season — an unexpected ascent that represented one of the primary positives of the Cubs' 101-loss season. MLBTR's Tim Dierkes has suggested a deal in the four-year, $27MM range could work for both the Cubs and Samardzija, who's under team control through 2015.

Despite Samardzija's production and a solid half-season from Matt Garza, Cubs starters struggled to complete innings (922 2/3, 24th in MLB), limit walks (3.1 BB/9, 23rd in MLB) and prevent runs (4.52 ERA, 23rd in MLB) this past season. Hoyer will be in the market for starting pitching, and could consider trades or free agent signings. The Cubs will presumably look for certainty given the state of their current rotation, so starters like Joe Blanton, Gavin Floyd and Jeremy Guthrie could make sense. Shaun Marcum, Dan Haren and Brandon McCarthy have health and performance-related questions, but they could also be intriguing free agent options for Hoyer to pursue if the players' asking prices are reasonable.

While it's not yet time for the Cubs to spend aggressively on top MLB free agents, they shouldn't hold back on elite international players (though spending restrictions do apply internationally). Prospects such as 18-year-old right-hander Shohei Otani could be worthwhile targets if Cubs scouts are impressed. The Cubs have already begun leveraging their status as a large market team by spending on international players such as Jorge Soler and they must continue adding talent to the organization in this way to the extent that it's possible under the sport's new collective bargaining agreement. The Cuban market could offer impact players as well, though this year's class doesn't appear to be as deep as the one that produced Soler and Yoenis Cespedes.

Garza, a midseason trade candidate this past summer, figures to stay put after missing the end of the 2012 season with an elbow injury. He'd likely have more value if he can prove he's healthy, so the timing isn't ideal for an offseason trade. If Garza's healthy midway through the 2013 season, the Cubs should trade him for the best controllable players they can get.

Cubs relievers performed less effectively than the team's starters this year, walking more than one batter per two innings (4.8 BB/9, 30th in MLB), generating few strikeouts (7.4 K/9, 29th in MLB) and posting a 4.49 ERA (27th in MLB). While it wouldn't make sense for the Cubs to spend aggressively on top free agent relievers such as Rafael Soriano, they must devote resources and attention to their relief corps this offseason. Trade candidates, minor league free agents and non-tendered players should all be on the team's radar. Perhaps the Cubs can even find a taker for Carlos Marmol, who will earn $9.8MM in 2013 after walking nearly one batter per inning this past season.

The Cubs lost 100 games for the first time since 1966 this past season. Even for a franchise that’s grown accustomed to losses that’s a lot of defeats. But they can be closer to contention within a few months if the front office completes a successful offseason by seeking pitching depth and pursuing impact talent whenever possible.

Photo courtesy of US Presswire.

Arbitration Eligibles: Milwaukee Brewers

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The Brewers are next in our 2013 Arbitration Eligibles series.  Matt Swartz's salary projections are below.

The Brewers' arbitration class includes four relievers: Axford, Loe, Parra, and Veras.  Axford was removed from the closer role in July, but was soon worked back into save situations.  Saves pay in arbitration, and Axford still amassed 35 of them in 2012 (and 106 for his career).  At $5.1MM, he'll already be expensive for a reliever after his first time through arbitration, but Axford will be back in 2013.  

Earlier this month, Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel noted that the Brewers' bullpen will be "extensively retooled" behind Axford and Jim Henderson, so it's possible Loe, Veras, and Parra are all removed one way or another.  Loe struggled this year but would get credit in arbitration for 51 career holds.  Veras' already-shaky control slipped in 2012, but he still racks up strikeouts.  Parra missed all of 2011 with an elbow injury and returned in 2012 with 58 2/3 relief innings.  He remains tough on lefties and still throws hard, so he might be worth a $1.6MM investment.  On the other hand, with a 5.06 ERA and tons of baserunners, it's possible the Brewers have seen enough.  My guess is that Brewers GM Doug Melvin will shop this trio prior to the November 30th non-tender deadline.  

Starters Estrada and Narveson are first-time arbitration eligible.  Estrada posted a 3.76 ERA, 9.3 K/9, 1.7 BB/9, and 1.18 HR/9 in 23 starts, so he has a rotation spot locked up for 2013.  Narveson was serviceable in 2011, but he missed almost of all 2012 due to rotator cuff surgery.  If, as we're projecting, that keeps him under a million bucks for '13, the Brewers will probably tender him a contract.

The Brewers have three arbitration eligible position players: Morgan, Ishikawa, and Gomez.  Morgan lost his effectiveness against left-handed starters, and won't be worth his projected arbitration salary.  Ishikawa was decent in limited action, but there's still some danger of a non-tender.  Gomez hit a career-high 19 home runs, and is locked in as the Brewers' center fielder for next year.

The Brewers have a lot of borderline non-tender candidates in the bullpen, so it's tough to pin down a total salary estimate.  If only Axford, Gomez, Narveson, and Estrada are retained, that'd be a projected $10.9MM for four arbitration eligible players.

Matt Swartz's arbitration projections are available exclusively at MLB Trade Rumors.  To read more about his projection model, check out this series of posts.

Rockies To Interview Jason Giambi

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The Rockies will interview 18-year MLB veteran Jason Giambi for their managerial vacancy, Troy Renck of the Denver Post reports. No date has been set for the Rockies to interview Giambi, the team's final in-house candidate. 

Giambi has spent the past three and a half years of his career playing for the Rockies. Renck and Patrick Saunders of The Denver Post reported earlier this month that the 41-year-old would retire as a player if given the opportunity to manage the Rockies. Giambi, a free agent this coming offseason, has not coached at any level or ruled out another year as a player.

The Rockies interviewed bench coach Tom Runnells for their managerial opening last week, and the former Montreal Expos manager said he's excited about the state of the franchise, according to MLB.com’s Thomas Harding. Rockies senior VP of Major League operations Bill Geivett said the Rockies will look outside of the organization for more candidates, according to Renck.

Triple-A manager Stu Cole could obtain a coaching position, but he won't be the team's next manager. The Rockies don't have plans to interview Vinny Castilla, a current front office member and former Rockies star.

Quick Hits: Beltran, Prospects, Cano, Nationals

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Chris Carpenter and Ryan Vogelsong will oppose one another at AT&T Park a few hours from now. Here are some links from around MLB to keep you entertained while waiting for the NLCS to resume…

  • Giants assistant general manager Bobby Evans told John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle that the team had approximately a dozen offseason conversations with Carlos Beltran's agent, Dan Lozano. That's a stark contrast from Beltran's statements, who said the two sides never talked. Shea speculates that Lozano didn't convey any of the communication to Beltran, who is of course, squaring off against his former teammates in the NLCS.
  • Matt Eddy of Baseball America has a rundown of 10 minor league deals that reaped significant Major League benefits, including Gregor Blanco, Brandon Moss and Quintin Berry.
  • Mets 2011 draftee Bradley Marquez will undergo surgery on his left knee after sustaining an injury playing football at Texas Tech, writes ESPN's Adam Rubin. The Mets allowed Marquez to continue playing football in order to facilitate the signing of their 11th-round selection.
  • Alex Rodriguez may be in the midst of a disappointing October, but at least he has a long-term contract in place. Robinson Cano, an offseason extension candidate, may have diminished his bargaining power by hitting poorly in the postseason, Joel Sherman of the New York Post writes. Plus, Rodriguez's struggles probably won't make the Yankees over-eager to spend a comparable amount on another struggling player.
  • The Nationals are set at every infield position but first base heading into the offseason, Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post writes. Ian Desmond could be in line for an extension this offseason, and Kilgore suggests a six-year, $45MM contract could work for both sides. It sounds as though there's a good chance Adam LaRoche will re-sign in Washington, even if he declines his side of the mutual option on his contract.
  • Giants GM Brian Sabean said coaches Ron Wotus and Dave Righetti would be excellent managers given the opportunity, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe reports (on Twitter). Wotus is the Giants' bench coach and and Righetti is the team's pitching coach.

Managerial Notes: Rockies, Red Sox, Baker

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Earlier today the Reds extended Dusty Baker for another two years. The former Cubs and Giants skipper has led Cincinnati to a pair of NL Central Division titles since taking over the helm. Here are some more links pertaining to managers…

  • Rockies bench coach Tom Runnells tells the Denver Post's Patrick Saunders that he's grateful to be considered for another managing position. Runnels has been the Rockies' bench coach for the past three seasons, and hasn't managed at the big league level since 1992 with the Expos. Saunders calls him the leading in-house candidate, and mentions Tim Wallach, Ryne Sandberg and Brad Ausmus as external candidates.
  • Don't count Brad Ausmus out as a candidate to take over as the Red Sox manager, writes Gordon Edes of ESPNBoston.com. It may seem strange that he was called in for an interview since his competition all appears to have extensive managing experience, but Edes notes the success of Mike Matheny this season. He quotes Joe Torre, who managed Ausmus with the Dodgers, in saying that Ausmus reminds him of Yankees skipper Joe Girardi.
  • Hal McCoy of the Dayton Daily News calls the decision to extend Baker a wise one. He notes that Baker overcame the loss of Ryan Madson, Nick Masset and Bill Bray before the season even started, and also lost Brandon Phillips and Joey Votto for notable amounts of time.
  • McCoy's colleague, Greg Billing, writes that the decision can't be judged until next season. Billing writes that he doesn't often question the decisions of GM Walt Jocketty and the Reds' ownership, but notes that the decision has not been met kindly by fans online.

AL East Notes: Ortiz, Peralta, Jackson

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Some links from around the AL East for your Monday reading pleasure…

  • David Ortiz is still looking for two years and $25-30MM, according to the Boston Herald's John Tomase. Ortiz told Tomase that he expects the Red Sox to reach out to his representatives at SFX next week.
  • Rich Dubroff of CSNBaltimore.com cautions Orioles fans not to buy into any rumblings that Ortiz could end up in Baltimore if he doesn't re-sign with the Red Sox. Dubroff notes that manager Buck Showalter felt handicapped by Vladimir Guerrero's inability to play in the field the last time the team had a strict DH in 2011.
  • In his latest mailbag, MLB.com's Bill Chastain tells one reader that Joel Peralta is so intent on returning to the Rays that he will likely deal with them exclusively before talking to other teams. Chastain does opine that a multi-year deal from an outside team could sway Peralta's thinking.
  • Chastain also says he believes that the Rays will open the season with Ben Zobrist as the shortstop, as Hak-Ju Lee may not be ready from an offensive standpoint yet.
  • Danny Knobler of CBS Sports tweets that the Blue Jays had nine different scouts in attendance for Edwin Jackson's final three regular season starts. Jackson will be a free agent this offseason, and while he'd like to return to the Nationals, he could end up elsewhere. The Jays are planning to shop aggressively this offseason.

Lohse Hasn’t Received Offer From Cardinals

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It's been a career season for Kyle Lohse, but despite that fact the right-hander informs Jim Bowden of MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM that he has yet to receive an offer from the Cardinals (audio link). Lohse says he's begun to think about new places to play, and that his wife and two children will factor into his decision. Bowden also tweets that GM John Mozeliak feels it will be difficult to re-sign Lohse because the 34-year-old has emerged as a big-game pitcher.

Lohse fired a career-high 211 innings this season, adding career bests in ERA (2.86) and BB/9 (1.6) as well. His 6.1 K/9 was his best strikeout rate since 2006 with the Twins and Reds.

That the Cardinals have yet to make an offer isn't necessarily a shock. The team is still in the playoffs and likely focused on the NLCS currently. Beyond that, they possess enviable pitching depth with Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright, Jaime Garcia, Jake Westbrook, Shelby Miller, Lance Lynn and Trevor Rosenthal all presenting rotation options in 2013.

It seems likely that Lohse will receive a qualifying offer — a notion which more than 74 percent of MLBTR readers agreed upon in this September poll. Lohse is finishing a four-year deal that paid him $41MM, and he could seek a similar payday in free agency. He'll join Zack Greinke, Ryan Dempster, Anibal Sanchez, Edwin Jackson and Shaun Marcum on the free agent market. Names like Jake Peavy and Dan Haren are reportedly likely to hit the market as well after team options on the right-handers are declined.

Hudson Wants To Finish Career With Braves

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Following the conclusion of this year's World Series, the Braves will have three days to decide on whether or not to exercise a $9MM option on Tim Hudson or pay a $1MM buyout. It seems practically inevitable that they'll pick up the option, but David O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports that Hudson is hoping for more than just one final year as a Brave:

"I’d love to stay here,” said Hudson … who’s been with the Braves for eight seasons. “Obviously for next year, but I’d love to stay here as long as they’ll have me.”

Hudson, 37, pitched to a 3.62 ERA with a 5.1 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 in 179 1/3 innings of work for the Braves this season. His 55.5 percent ground-ball rate ranked seventh in all of baseball among qualified starters, but still represented a noticeable departure from the 62.2 percent mark he posted from 2007-10.

The sinkerballer missed time with bone spurs in his ankle this season, but told O'Brien that he believes the back surgery he underwent last November has prolonged his career:

“I felt better this year than I have in a while, except for the ankle,” he said. “My arm felt great all year, my back never gave me any problems, so that was definitely encouraging. I feel good that I can pitch for a while longer.”

The Braves, of course, don't have to decide on a long-term extension right now. Hudson would like to discuss such a deal this offseason, but the Braves could simply wait to see how he fares in 2013 before deciding on his fate. There are some signs for concern that would merit such caution. Hudson's ERA rose in both 2011 and 2012, his ground-ball rate declined in each of those seasons, and his 5.1 K/9 in 2012 was his lowest since 2004. Hudson's sinker also averaged just 89 mph — a full 1.5 mph drop from 2011.

The Alabama native has been with the Braves since being acquired from the Athletics following the 2004 season. In hindsight, that trade looks like a steal, as the Braves gave up just Juan Cruz, Dan Meyer and Charles Thomas. While all three were highly regarded, none developed into a superstar. Hudson, meanwhile, has pitched to a 3.52 ERA in 1,441 2/3 innings for the Braves.

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