Archives for March 2016

Questions Remaining

The rotation is largely set, with Morton and Hellickson joining promising youngsters Aaron Nola and Jerad Eickhoff, each of whom will look to build off of excellent debuts last year. Velasquez had flashes of excellence last year in Houston, and ought to get a chance to stick as a starter in Philly. He and Adam Morgan appear to be the final two candidates for the fifth spot, but both will probably have their chances over the course of the season. Other younger options — including recent trade additions like Appel, Alec Asher, Jake Thompson, Zach Eflin, and Ben Lively — could eventually earn an opportunity in 2016. On the whole, while there’s plenty of uncertainty in the staff, the course seems largely set for the season to come.

There’s less excitement in the pen, but it too doesn’t lack for options. The aforementioned, out-of-options Oberholtzer appears headed to the pen as a long man to open the year, but will also provide rotation depth. Severino Gonzalez is another swingman option. Hernandez may face competition for the 9th-inning job from minor league signee and former closer Andrew Bailey, who has impressed in limited action this spring. Dalier Hinojosa is also said to be in the mix as well and will play a major role regardless. Jeanmar Gomez, Luis Garcia, and Hector Neris all had good results last year and remain as right-handed options. They are joined by a host of minor league signees, including former late-inning relievers Edward Mujica (who’s been stingy this spring) and Ernesto Frieri (who hasn’t). Yoervis Medina has also had quality showings in the majors; he represents the return for one-time top prospect Jesse Biddle, whose arm troubles proved too risky to keep a roster spot. On the southpaw side of things, beyond Oberholtzer, the club could give a chance to Rule 5 pick Daniel Stumpf, hope that Elvis Araujo can build on a solid 2015, or hand a spot to minor league free agent James Russell — all while awaiting the return of TJ patient Mario Hollands. There are a lot of moving parts here; the Phils will presumably cycle through possibilities over the year to see what sticks while managing the varying contractual situations of all the candidates.

There aren’t a lot of battles in the infield, where everyone is watching to see if Maikel Franco can build on his exciting debut while waiting for J.P. Crawford to join him on the left side. Second baseman Taylor Featherston obviously has Klentak’s eye, as he was carried as a Rule 5 pick last year by the Angels (where Klentak was AGM) before being claimed this winter by the Phils. He’ll get some needed seasoning in Triple-A but could take another MLB opportunity at some point. In the meantime, Freddy Galvis, Cesar Hernandez, and Andres Blanco will hold down the fort in the middle infield. First base looks to be a platoon of Howard and Darin Ruf, while Cameron Rupp figures to see the bulk of the time behind the plate in front of Ruiz. Veteran J.P. Arencibia is also on hand, and solid prospects Jorge Alfaro and Andrew Knapp are backstops on the rise — though it’s not clear whether either will be ready for major league time this year. While Galvis, Hernandez, Ruf, and Rupp are a relatively youthful (and inexpensive) group, they’d be playing much less significant roles in most other organizations. It’s a situation ripe for turnover as the season progresses.

The Phillies outfield, meanwhile, is yet more susceptible to ongoing tinkering. Odubel Herrera is sure to get a chance to entrench himself in center after turning into one of the best Rule 5 choices of recent memory last year, though he’s been slowed by a finger issue. He’s joined in camp by this winter’s top Rule 5 selection, Tyler Goeddel, bounceback candidates like the swift and rangy Peter Bourjos and glove man David Lough, and minor league signee Cedric Hunter (who has only the barest MLB experience — a cup of coffee back in 2011 — but has performed well this spring). Another option is Darnell Sweeney, who could also see time in the infield dirt. Converted third baseman Cody Asche may enter the picture if he can get healthy, as could well-regarded prospects Roman Quinn and Nick Williams if they come along in the upper minors. All told, there’s a real lack of depth here, especially with interesting youngster Aaron Altherr set to miss most or all of the year following wrist surgery. Unsurprisingly, the Phils have held some discussions about adding to this mix, and may well end up scouring the waiver wire and opt-out market to bolster their ranks.

Deal of Note

Some felt the Phillies might look to make a splash or two in free agency with a robust market that included some younger options, but that never felt terribly realistic. Really, the major question entering the winter was whether the time was right to make a move on Giles, who has established himself as a late-inning force at age 25.

The front office could certainly rolled the dice and waited, as the organization did last year with Cole Hamels. Relievers tend to hit peak value during the summer, and it’s possible to imagine that Giles might have been a top trade target at the deadline — particularly since many other top options are situated on likely contenders.

Ultimately, though, Giles was cashed in this winter. And given the quality and depth of the return, it’s not hard to see why. To be sure, young relievers with his track record can be hard to find, but given the well-documented volatility of pen arms, it made good sense to do a deal when presented with significant value.

The two headline pieces — Velasquez and Appel — may not turn out to be quality starters in the long run. The former has an impressive arsenal but lacks elite control, while the latter has yet to harness his own power repertoire in the minors. But Philadelphia has the time and patience needed to give both a chance to fail in the rotation. Importantly, too, there’s good reason to think that both have an excellent chance of functioning as quality late-inning pieces — possibly even approaching, even if not eclipsing, Giles in terms of quality.

The remainder of the deal has value, too. Oberholtzer may only end up as a placeholder, but he’s just 26 and has ample control remaining, potentially making him a useful swing piece for years to come. And while the 21-year-old Eshelman doesn’t have big-time stuff, he was worthy of a second-round pick and slightly under-slot $1.1MM bonus last year and could move reasonably quickly as a polished collegian with outstanding control. (As for the two, unrelated Panamanian youngsters by the same surname who changed hands in this deal, it’s anybody’s guess.)

All in all, the package has its share of upside to go with a reasonable floor, and it doesn’t seem terribly likely to impact the team’s timeline for a return to contention.

Overview

While Phillies fans are settling in for another losing campaign, there’s certainly quite a lot to look forward to in the coming season. Many of the organization’s most promising farmhands are nearing MLB readiness — if they haven’t reached it already — and the big-budget club may well consider some reasonably aggressive promotions to get an idea of its contention timeline and mid-term needs.

There’s still a lot of work to be done, of course, in both talent accumulation and development. But the club has just $26MM on the books past the present season, allowing ample flexibility to add big league pieces as a new roster core takes shape. Exciting times may not be far off.

Now, it’s your turn to weigh in on things (link to poll for mobile app users):