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Archives for March 2016

AL East Notes: Donaldson, Interpreters, Gibbons, HanRam, Gausman

By Zachary Links,Jeff Todd and Tim Dierkes | March 23, 2016 at 11:03am CDT

Star Blue Jays third baseman Josh Donaldson has personal experience with domestic violence, as Rosie DiManno of The Star writes.  As a child, Donaldson was exposed to a troubled relationship between his mother and father. “I’m not going to get too colorful with it. But it wasn’t pretty. The best way I can describe it is I can still remember things from when I was from three to five years old that are very vivid in my mind to this day. And it’s not something I would want anybody else to go through. It not only affects the two people that are involved but it affects children. It definitely has had an effect on me throughout my life,” Donaldson said. The reigning AL MVP is obviously to be applauded for his willingness to address a difficult and important subject that continues to pose challenges to major sports leagues.

  • While not of the same level of significance, another notable off-field topic that’s drawn attention of late is the inclusion of Spanish interpreters in major league clubhouses, and Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News provides an interesting look at the subject. Veteran Yankees outfielder Carlos Beltran, who helped lead the charge to bring Spanish translation on board for every team, explains how important it is for players. “The reality is that most of these guys come and get to the big leagues, sometimes they don’t know how to express themselves the right way,” Beltran said. “I look at having a translator as a no-brainer because it will help communication between everybody. Players and coaches, players and players, and players and media. I don’t know why it took so long.” The article includes worthwhile thoughts from several players with different language backgrounds, and is highly recommended.
  • While the Blue Jays’ new front office ultimately modified the contract of manager John Gibbons, Jeff Blair and Shi Davidi of Sportsnet report that Gibbons had raised the matter himself previously with former GM Alex Anthopoulos. “It’s something I first spoke to Alex about before he left,” said Gibbons. The new arrangement does away with the “rolling option” — which became guaranteed on each New Year’s Day with another option year added each time — that existed under his original contract.  By the way, Gibbons confirmed this morning that Marcus Stroman will be the Jays’ Opening Day starter.
  • Though he expresses skepticism, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe reports that off-the-record conversations with Red Sox players and staff “all reflect a positive theme” regarding first baseman Hanley Ramirez, suggesting that perhaps the veteran has matured in his second spring with the Red Sox. Ramirez appears to be enjoying himself this spring, Tim Britton of the Providence Journal writes, who notes that the returns have been generally positive on Ramirez’s work at first.
  • Kevin Gausman says his right shoulder pain is improving, but his status for Opening Day is still in question, as Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com writes.  Right now, the Orioles hurler says he is aiming to be ready “by hopefully the first or second week of the season.” Needless to say, his health is of critical importance to a Baltimore club that faces rotation questions and hopes the youngster will take the next step in his development in 2016.
  • In case you missed it, the Orioles added lefty reliever Zach Phillips on a Major League deal this morning, as insurance for the injured Brian Matusz.
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Baltimore Orioles Boston Red Sox Toronto Blue Jays Brian Matusz Hanley Ramirez John Gibbons Josh Donaldson Kevin Gausman

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Ross Ohlendorf Opts Out Of Royals Contract, Is Granted Release

By charliewilmoth | March 23, 2016 at 10:01am CDT

WEDNESDAY: Kansas City has given Ohlendorf his release rather than adding him to the 40-man, MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan tweets.

MONDAY: Veteran righty Ross Ohlendorf has opted out of his minor-league deal with the Royals, ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick tweets. The Royals now have 48 hours to place Ohlendorf on their roster or release him.

Ohlendorf is one of several players fighting for what would could be one bullpen spot, with Wade Davis, Joakim Soria, Kelvin Herrera, Luke Hochevar, and perhaps Danny Duffy and the recently-rostered Dillon Gee all likely to win jobs. Chien-Ming Wang has thrown hard and gotten good results so far this spring, and could have the inside track on a spot as well. Ohlendorf has pitched eight innings in Spring Training and allowed six runs, although he’s struck out nine and walked only three.

The 33-year-old Ohlendorf fared well in 19 1/3 innings of relief with the Rangers in 2015, posting a 3.72 ERA, 8.8 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 while throwing considerably harder than he had in much of his earlier big-league career, most of which he had spent as a starter. He’s the veteran of eight big-league seasons, also playing for the Yankees, Pirates, Padres and Nationals.

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Kansas City Royals Ross Ohlendorf

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Orioles Sign Zach Phillips, Designate Chris Jones

By Tim Dierkes | March 23, 2016 at 8:12am CDT

The Orioles have signed lefty Zach Phillips to a one-year deal, announced the team.  To clear a spot on the 40-man roster, they designated southpaw Chris Jones for assignment.  MLBTR has learned that Phillips received a Major League deal worth $510K.  Phillips is represented by Matt Colleran.

Phillips, 29, elected free agency last week after the White Sox removed him from their 40-man roster.  He has just 15 2/3 innings of big league experience, which came from 2011-13.  Last year at Triple-A Charlotte, Phillips posted a 3.13 ERA, 10.5 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 in 54 2/3 innings, allowing just one home run.  He spent 2014 with the Hiroshima Carp.  The Rangers took Phillips as a draft-and-follow out of Sacramento City College in 2004, trading him to the Orioles in July 2011 for Nick Green.  Phillips told reporters including Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com this morning, “I’ve always wanted to come back here and I thought it was a great time to. Just being familiar with Baltimore and them giving me a chance. I’ve always liked it here and thought it would be good to come back.”

Phillips “has a good chance to make the Orioles,” writes Rich Dubroff of CSN Mid-Atlantic.  As noted by MLB.com’s Brittany Ghiroli on Twitter, the Orioles have a potential bullpen opening because of an injury to Brian Matusz.  According to Eduardo A. Encina of the Baltimore Sun, Matusz has been dealing with a lower back strain and just received a cortisone injection, putting Opening Day in jeopardy.  The Orioles kick off their season at home against the Twins on April 4th.  Their bullpen should otherwise include Zach Britton, Darren O’Day, Brad Brach, Mychal Givens, Dylan Bundy, and one more reliever from a handful of options.

Jones, 27, put up a 2.94 ERA, 6.3 K/9, 1.7 BB/9, and 0.90 HR/9 in 150 Triple-A innings last year.  That represented his third career stint at Triple-A.  Jones was drafted by the Indians in the 15th round in 2007.  He was traded to the Braves in October 2011 for Derek Lowe, and was later shipped to Baltimore for Luis Ayala in April 2013.  The O’s released Jones in February 2014 upon signing Nelson Cruz, re-signing the lefty to a minor league deal shortly thereafter.  He rejoined Baltimore’s 40-man roster last November, and had been reassigned to minor league camp early last week.

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Baltimore Orioles Newsstand Chris Jones Zach Phillips

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Offseason In Review: Baltimore Orioles

By Mark Polishuk | March 23, 2016 at 8:02am CDT

This is the latest entry in MLBTR’s Offseason In Review series. The full index of Offseason In Review posts can be found here.

After years of modest-to-little offseason spending, the Orioles exploded for the biggest spending spree in club history.  A lot of familiar faces are back for another AL East run, though the O’s still have some questions to answer in the rotation.

Major League Signings

  • Chris Davis, 1B: Seven years, $161MM
  • Darren O’Day, RP: Four years, $31MM
  • Yovani Gallardo, SP: Two years, $22MM (includes $2MM buyout of $13MM club option for 2018)
  • Hyun Soo Kim, OF: Two years, $7MM
  • Matt Wieters, C: One year, $15.8MM (accepted qualifying offer)
  • Pedro Alvarez, 1B: One year, $5.75MM
  • Zach Phillips, RP: One year, $510K
  • Total spend: $243.06MM

Notable Minor League Signings

  • Dale Thayer, Steve Tolleson, Paul Janish, Julio Borbon, Hideki Okajima, Mike Carp, Jeff Beliveau, Alfredo Marte, Sam Deduno, Nathan Adcock, Todd Redmond, Cesar Cabral, Audry Perez, Pedro Beato

Trades And Claims

  • Acquired 1B/OF Mark Trumbo and RP C.J. Riefenhauser from Mariners for C Steve Clevenger
  • Acquired SP Odrisamer Despaigne from Padres for SP Jean Cosme
  • Acquired OF L.J. Hoes from Astros for cash considerations
  • Acquired C Francisco Pena from Royals for cash considerations
  • Claimed P Vance Worley off waivers from Pirates
  • Claimed IF/OF Joey Terdoslavich off waivers from Braves
  • Claimed OF Joey Rickard from Rays in the Rule 5 draft

Extensions

  • None

Notable Losses

  • Wei-Yin Chen, Steve Pearce, Gerardo Parra, Junior Lake, David Lough, Rey Navarro, Steve Johnson, Ji-Man Choi (Rule 5 draft), Clevenger, Riefenhauser

Needs Addressed

If the theme of the Orioles’ offseason was unexpected spending, the tone was set early on when Matt Wieters accepted the team’s one-year, $15.8MM qualifying offer to return for the 2016 season.  With Caleb Joseph and Steve Clevenger already lined up as the new catching tandem, Wieters’ return created a bit of a surplus, so Clevenger was dealt to Seattle as part of a trade that saw Mark Trumbo come to Baltimore.

Trumbo will see some time as the Orioles’ designated hitter against lefty starters, but he’ll probably spend most of his time in right field, where he has posted below-average (-10 defensive runs saved, -11.8 UZR/150) metrics.  The O’s will live with that lack of glove work as long as the move to Camden Yards suits Trumbo’s power bat.  Trumbo has 131 homers in 2760 career PA despite playing much of his career in pitcher-friendly ballparks in Seattle and Anaheim, though the challenge for him has always been getting on base.Chris Davis

Through Trumbo was on hand as a possible first base replacement, the O’s were focused on Chris Davis as their top winter target and eventually re-signed the slugger on a team record seven-year/$161MM contract ($42MM of which is deferred).  It was a stunning outlay, especially considering that talks between the two sides seemed to stall at one point over a $150MM offer, though that could have just been some negotiating gamesmanship on Baltimore’s part.  Still, the $161MM figure topped expectations, especially considering that Davis’ market seemed rather quiet — the Tigers were the only other club known to have a clear interest in Davis (as a left fielder, rather curiously), with the Red Sox, Cardinals and Blue Jays also rumored to have at least explored a signing at some point.

Another Scott Boras client joined the Orioles in Pedro Alvarez, who will more or less be a full-time DH in his first stint in the American League.  It’s possible that Alvarez’s one-year, $5.75MM deal could be one of the offseason’s biggest bargains given the move to Camden — like Trumbo, he has shown big power in a pitcher-friendly environment, launching 111 homers over the last four seasons despite playing home games at PNC Park.  Perhaps more importantly for the defensively-challenged Alvarez, he can now focus exclusively on hitting in the DH role, and also be protected from tough lefty pitching due to Trumbo’s presence.  Alvarez isn’t a flawless signing, of course, as we’ll explore in the “questions remaining” section.

Gerardo Parra left to join the Rockies, and while the Orioles explored some bigger names in the outfield (more on that later), they addressed their corner vacancies in the form of Trumbo and Korean signing Hyun Soo Kim.  The O’s have been quite active in the international market under Dan Duquette (with Wei-Yin Chen standing out as the only real success story) and the club hopes Kim can be a solid option in left on at least a platoon basis.  The 28-year-old Kim posted monster numbers over 10 seasons in the Korean Baseball Organization, and he’ll form the left-handed hitting side of a platoon with Nolan Reimold slated for time against opposing southpaws.  Rule 5 draft pick Joey Rickard could also see some at-bats against left-handed pitching as the O’s endeavor to keep him on their 25-man roster.

With these new options in the outfield and at first base, the Orioles were comfortable letting Steve Pearce leave in free agency, although they did have some discussions about bringing back the veteran utility man.  Pearce ended up staying in the AL East, signing a one-year deal with Tampa Bay.

On the bullpen front, the Orioles bought back a familiar face in Darren O’Day, inking the long-time setup man to a four-year, $31MM deal.  The signing may have been extra sweet for the Orioles since their beltway rivals in Washington were reportedly O’Day’s second choice and he came very close to signing with the Nationals.  O’Day and closer Zach Britton will again team up to headline what should continue to be a very solid Baltimore bullpen that also stands to benefit from full seasons out of Mychal Givens and oft-injured, out-of-options prospect Dylan Bundy.

GallardoWhat’s an Orioles offseason without a medical controversy surrounding a signing?  This time it was Yovani Gallardo who ran afoul of Baltimore’s notoriously stringent physicals, as the original three-year, $35MM agreement morphed into a two-year, $22MM contract with a $13MM club option for 2018 after the O’s discovered an issue with Gallardo’s shoulder.

Of course, durability is Gallardo’s chief calling card: the righty has averaged 32 starts and 191 innings per season since 2009.  Though his strikeout rate has steadily dropped over the last three years and he posted just a 5.9 K/9 last season (against 3.3 BB/9), Gallardo has posted at least 2 fWAR in each of the last four seasons and proved last year in Texas that he could succeed against American League lineups.Read more

Questions Remaining

In terms of being a pure replacement for Chen, Gallardo matches up quite well since the two have been almost equally valuable since 2012.  Considering that Chen is seven months older and cost the Marlins a five-year, $80MM commitment (albeit with an opt-out clause), the O’s did well on paper in landing Gallardo at a fraction of the money and years.

The bigger question, of course, is that if Gallardo merely replaces Chen’s production, it won’t do much to help a rotation that badly struggled in 2015.  If Chris Tillman and Miguel Gonzalez both scuffle again, Ubaldo Jimenez reverts to his 2014 form and Kevin Gausman doesn’t take the step forward from promising young arm to reliable front-of-the-rotation starter, Baltimore is going to have to win a lot of slugfests.

It could be that the Davis negotiations prevented the O’s from pursuing one of this winter’s top free agent aces.  For all of the money the Orioles spent this winter, they had to keep a lot of powder dry to land Davis, who didn’t sign until January.  By that time, many of the biggest pitching names on the market were already long gone.  Since the O’s were able to add several bats with first base experience anyway and had a clearer need for pitching than hitting, it could be argued that Baltimore should’ve prioritized an ace rather than a top slugger like Davis.  Such a strategy might ultimately have been a non-starter, however, given how owner Peter Angelos is so hesitant about any kind of major pitching signing.

Also on the pitching front, the O’s were linked to such names as trade target Hector Santiago (who thought he was on the verge of being dealt to the Orioles in November) and free agent Scott Kazmir, whose injury history could’ve led to an interesting run through the Baltimore medical gauntlet.  Baltimore did add one depth option in Odrisamer Despaigne, who will join Mike Wright and Tyler Wilson as the Orioles’ first line of rotation replacements.

While Trumbo and Alvarez bring a lot of pop, they also bring a lot of whiffs to a club that already had the third-highest strikeout rate in the game.  Neither slugger is much of an on-base threat and both are defensive liabilities, though playing one of them regularly at DH should mitigate a bit of that last concern.

It’s fair to say that Trumbo would be slated as the regular DH and Alvarez wouldn’t be on the roster at all had Baltimore succeeded in landing one of their top outfield targets.  The Orioles were linked to Jay Bruce and Nick Markakis in trade rumors and were also connected to several of the offseason’s biggest free agent outfielders — Justin Upton, Alex Gordon, and Yoenis Cespedes.  Had the Davis talks fallen through, the O’s would likely have made a harder run at any of these three, though they reportedly made Cespedes an offer in the five-year, $90MM range when negotiations with Davis were at an impasse.  It’s worth noting that Upton and Cespedes both signed contracts with opt-out clauses, which the Orioles refuse to offer.

That stance against opt-outs may have cost them Dexter Fowler, who had one of the offseason’s stranger free agent stints.  Fowler was still unsigned in late February thanks to the qualifying offer dragging down his market, though for a couple of days it seemed like the Orioles were going to add both Gallardo and Fowler to three-year deals in the $33-$35MM range.  Instead, Gallardo signed his two-year deal and Fowler didn’t sign at all, surprisingly returning to the Cubs on a one-year contract when several media outlets were reporting an agreement with Baltimore.  The situation led to some strong displeasure expressed by Fowler’s agent Casey Close, though it seems the two sides were never as close as reports indicated.  Without Fowler to solidify right field, the O’s will have to get by with Trumbo’s shaky defense.

Deal Of Note

The O’s were ultimately comfortable in surrendering their first-round pick (14th overall) to sign Gallardo, and they did recoup another first-rounder (27th overall) as compensation for Chen.  All in all, Baltimore will have five picks between the #27-91 selections of this year’s draft, and you wonder if the team wasn’t hoping for an even bigger draft haul in the form of an extra pick from Wieters’ free agency.

Wieters’ acceptance of the qualifying offer caught many by surprise, perhaps even a few in the Baltimore front office.  If a return wasn’t in the cards, then that move was unquestionably the biggest domino to fall in the Orioles offseason.  If Wieters turns down the QO, then Clevenger isn’t dealt and perhaps Trumbo stays in Seattle…then perhaps the Orioles have more pressure to get a deal done with Davis and sign him earlier…and then maybe the O’s have time to get in on a top starter who’s still on the market while they have an extra $15.8MM to spend.  The possibilities are endless.

Not only was Wieters projected to be the top free agent catcher on the market, it was doubly stunning that a Boras client was one of the first three players to accept the QO given how the agent has so disparaged the qualifying offer system.  Still, in this context, the QO isn’t too different from the “pillow contract” strategy that Boras himself has pursued with other clients.  Wieters was limited to just 101 games over the last two seasons due to Tommy John surgery, and had an overall subpar year at the plate when healthy and playing 148 games in 2013.

MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes predicted Wieters would land a four-year, $64MM deal this winter simply due to his potential, track record and the lack of catching depth on the open market, though given how other players (including some notable Boras clients) have been affected by the qualifying offer, Wieters’ list of suitors could’ve been shorter than expected.

Rather than risk settling for a below-expectations contract, Wieters decided to take the $15.8MM (not a bad payday at all) on the table and spend another year in a familiar situation in order to improve his stock for next winter’s free agent market.  Staying healthy will be key, of course, and Wieters’ spring has already been interrupted by some elbow discomfort.

The 2016-17 free agent class is notably thinner than this year’s crop, so if Wieters is healthy and productive, he’ll be in much better position to land that huge multi-year deal.  Assuming he signs elsewhere after a strong campaign, the Orioles will still get their compensatory first-rounder for Wieters, just a year later than expected.

Overview

In Duquette’s first four offseasons as Baltimore’s executive VP of baseball operations, the team spent roughly $116MM combined on Major League free agents.  Needless to say, the O’s adopted a much different strategy towards the open market this winter, more than doubling that $116MM total.  You had to figure some increase was necessary given how many key names were free agents, though the sheer amount of spending raised eyebrows.  Only the Cubs, Tigers and Giants dedicated more to MLB free agents than the Orioles did this winter, and their total would’ve been even higher had they successfully landed Fowler.

Bringing back three of their own free agents is a clear sign that Angelos and Duquette believe in the core of this team, and the additional spending on new talent reinforces the notion that the Orioles are counting on a pennant run.  With at least $145MM (not counting pre-arbitration salaries) already committed to the payroll, it’s a safe guess that they’ll be comfortable spending more at the trade deadline to add another piece if they’re in contention.

That piece may well end up being a starting pitcher, as despite all of the spending, the Orioles are really just doubling down on their recent strategy of winning games via a big offense and a strong bullpen.  A lack of starting pitching depth won’t necessarily doom a team (just ask last year’s Royals and Blue Jays), though a lot will have to go right for Baltimore’s rotation to just be average.  Still, an average rotation may be all it takes considering the Orioles will be rolling out a lineup that includes Manny Machado, Adam Jones, Davis, Trumbo, Alvarez, Wieters, an emerging talent in Jonathan Schoop and maybe a hidden gem in Kim.

How would you grade the incredibly busy Orioles’ offseason? (link to poll for mobile app users)

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

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2015-16 Offseason In Review Baltimore Orioles MLBTR Originals

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Sign Up For The MLB Trade Rumors Newsletter

By Tim Dierkes | March 23, 2016 at 8:00am CDT

Is MLBTR’s newsletter landing in your inbox each week?  The premise is simple: an exclusive weekly hot stove article, written by me.  There are no strings attached.  The newsletter is completely free, and we won’t give out your email address or use it for marketing.  This week, I’ll take a look at the 2017 MLB Free Agents who fell short of the top ten in my power rankings.  Those of you viewing this post in our app can use this link.

Get the weekly article from Tim!


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2017 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings

By Tim Dierkes | March 22, 2016 at 10:49pm CDT

The 2015-16 MLB free agent class is winding down, and it’s time to turn our attention to the 2016-17 group. These players project to become free agents after the 2016 season, unless they sign contract extensions first.  Extensions seem unlikely for the top names.  Players may be reluctant to sign now, as the 2016-17 class appears weak.  MLBTR’s full list of 2016-17 free agents can be found here.

What exactly are we ranking here? The simplest explanation would be earning power. These rankings represent expected contract size, assuming each player reaches the open market and goes to the highest bidder. Of course, nothing affects a free agent’s earning power more than his most recent season, so I’ll be updating these rankings monthly.

MLBTR 2017 Power Rankings (vertical)

1.  Stephen Strasburg.  The first overall pick in the 2009 draft, Strasburg has been very good in his Nationals career but hasn’t quite lived up to expectations.  One could draw a parallel with one of last winter’s top free agents, Justin Upton.  Of course, it’s different with pitchers, and over the years Strasburg’s only limitation has been health.  After tying for the NL lead in strikeouts in 2014, shoulder, neck, back, and oblique issues limited Strasburg to 23 big league starts in 2015.  After the season, he had a “small, non-cancerous growth removed from his back,” wrote James Wagner of the Washington Post.  Strasburg also has Tommy John surgery in his health history, with the procedure performed in September 2010.  Strasburg’s agent, Scott Boras, enjoys a well-known cozy relationship with the Nationals.  The team generated controversy in 2012 when Strasburg was shut down at 159 1/3 innings with the team headed to the playoffs, a decision unsurprisingly supported by Boras.  Now, if Strasburg can muster up his second career 200-inning season along with his typical dominance, Boras will seek to shatter David Price’s record contract for starting pitchers, which was for seven years and $217MM with the Red Sox.  As with Price, opt-out clauses will factor heavily into the discussion.  Strasburg doesn’t turn 28 until July, so he’ll be about two years younger than Price was.

2.  Carlos Gomez.  Gomez took big steps forward after being traded to the Brewers in November 2009, and posted a career-best 19 home runs in 2012.  In the spring of 2013, with free agency looming after the season, Gomez signed a surprising three-year extension with Milwaukee.  He went on to put up monster seasons in 2013 and ’14, but was derailed in 2015 with hamstring and hip issues.  A near-trade to the Mets fell apart in July when New York backed out for various reasons, but he was successfully traded to the Astros the following day.  Similar to Strasburg, a healthy season will go a long way for Gomez, who is also represented by Boras.  The center fielder could land a deal north of $150MM if he returns to his 2014 level of health and production.

3.  Yoenis Cespedes.  I predicted a six-year, $140MM deal for Cespedes, who reached free agency after the 2015 season.  Instead, the 30-year-old slugger turned down multiple five-year offers and returned to the Mets in late January on an interesting high-AAV contract.  Cespedes signed a three-year, $75MM deal, with an opt out after 2016.  If exercised, Cespedes will have earned a hefty $27.5MM for the ’16 season.  If he does opt out, perhaps Cespedes will be coming off a season good enough to ease whatever concerns plagued him this winter, and he can snag that six-year deal in the end.  It’s a weaker market for sluggers, as Bautista and Encarnacion are considerably older.

4.  Jose Bautista.  Bautista, 36 in October, crushed 75 home runs over the last two seasons for the Blue Jays.  He’s a late bloomer, having broken out with the Jays in 2010 at age 29 with 54 home runs.  While extension talks with Toronto have occurred, Bautista stated in February that he’s “not willing to negotiate” from his asking price, which reports suggest could be five or six years at around $30MM per season.  Right now I’m penciling him in for four years and $120MM.  Some teams will draw a hard line because of Bautista’s age, but it’s certainly possible for one to throw caution out the window.

5.  Edwin Encarnacion.  Bautista’s teammate has been prolific in his own right, with 151 bombs over the last four years.  He’ll turn 34 prior to the 2017 season, so age is a big factor here as well.  Talks with the Jays have stalled over contract length, and you have to think Encarnacion expects at least four years.  I could see something like four years and $100MM, though he’d have a good argument for five years if Bautista gets that many first.  Encarnacion is more limited in the field, as a DH/first baseman.

6.  Josh Reddick.  Reddick doesn’t carry the same health or age concerns as the other outfielders on this list.  He recently turned 29, and he played in 149 games last year.  Reddick has evolved as a hitter, dropping his strikeout rate to 11.2% last year.  He’s got 20 home run pop and a good defensive reputation, if not the numbers to back up the latter in recent years.  He could be a candidate for a surprising five-year deal approaching $100MM.  The A’s are at least exploring an extension.

7.  Andrew Cashner.  You might be surprised to see Cashner this high on the list.  Indeed, his position is tenuous.  But in a free agent market starved for starting pitching, Cashner is the type you can dream on.  A former 2008 first rounder, Cashner averaged a blazing 94.8 miles per hour on his fastball last year.  That ranked sixth in baseball among those with 180 innings.  On the other hand, it was Cashner’s first time reaching that innings plateau, and he served up a 4.34 ERA for San Diego.  The team chose to hold onto him over the winter, perhaps sensing his value could rise in his contract year.  If Ian Kennedy can get five years and $70MM plus an opt-out clause, Cashner could do well in a free agent market for starting pitching that looks much, much worse.

8.  Kenley Jansen.  Jansen, 29 in September, may be the game’s best reliever.  The Dodgers’ closer boasts massive strikeout rates, and he added a career-best walk rate last year.  Jansen is practically unhittable, and he doesn’t come with the off-field baggage Chapman does.  Jonathan Papelbon’s record four-year, $50MM contract for relievers could fall, as it’s possible Jansen could land a five-year deal.

9.  Adrian Beltre.  Though he’s represented by Boras, Beltre stands a fair chance of reaching an extension with the Rangers.  The third baseman will turn 37 soon, but a three-year deal would be a fair request.  I could see three years and $60MM or more.  Though Beltre is winding down a potential Hall of Fame career, he remains a potent hitter and strong defender.

10.  Aroldis Chapman.  Chapman is right there with Jansen in terms of relief dominance, regularly punching out at least 42% of batters faced.  The 28-year-old is the hardest-throwing pitcher alive, averaging 99.5 miles per hour on his fastball last year and over 100 the year before.  However, his upcoming free agency is clouded by an incident that occurred at his home last October.  In a police report uncovered by Tim Brown and Jeff Passan of Yahoo, Chapman reportedly pushed and choked his girlfriend and fired a gun repeatedly in his garage.  Chapman denies harming his girlfriend, but chose not to appeal the 30-game suspension handed down by MLB as part of its domestic violence policy.  Even if Chapman avoids further incidents as a member of the Yankees, this one will affect his free agency after the season.  Every interested team will conduct due diligence, and perhaps several will emerge with enough comfort to offer Chapman a large four-year deal.  At this point, it’s difficult to say.

In the 2015-16 offseason, ten free agents signed for at least $80MM, seven of whom were pitchers.  This year, only Strasburg seems likely to reach $80MM, highlighting the lack of depth in starting pitching in the 2016-17 market.  After Cashner, there’s names like Jesse Chavez, Jorge de la Rosa, Ivan Nova, Edinson Volquez, Kris Medlen, and Brett Anderson.  James Shields and Scott Kazmir each have the ability to opt out of their current contracts and join the market, though it’s unclear whether either will find that worthwhile.  On the relief side, Mark Melancon is a high quality arm likely to land in our top 20.

There are a few interesting position players who did not make my initial top ten: Justin Turner, Francisco Cervelli, Matt Wieters, and Neil Walker.  Ian Desmond and Colby Rasmus will find themselves back on the market again, barring extensions.

It doesn’t seem likely that the Nippon Ham Fighters will post 21-year-old phenom pitcher Shohei Otani after this season, but if they do it would shake up the MLB free agent market.

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Offseason In Review: Los Angeles Angels Of Anaheim

By Mark Polishuk | March 22, 2016 at 9:21pm CDT

This is the latest entry in MLBTR’s Offseason In Review series. The full index of Offseason In Review posts can be found here.

The Angels made a couple of big trades to shore up the infield, but a payroll crunch led new GM Billy Eppler to address other roster holes in a more cost-conscious way.

Major League Signings

  • Cliff Pennington, IF: Two years, $3.75MM
  • Geovany Soto, C: One year, $2.8MM
  • Daniel Nava, OF: One year, $1.375MM
  • Al Alburquerque, RP: One year, $1.1MM base salary (only around $275K is guaranteed if Alburquerque is cut before Opening Day)
  • Craig Gentry, OF: One year, $1MM (split contract, salary only guaranteed if Gentry makes the MLB roster)
  • Rafael Ortega, OF: One year, $525K
  • Total spend: $8.45MM guaranteed ($10.5MM with Alburquerque and Gentry on the MLB roster)

Notable Minor League Signings

  • Javy Guerra, Gregorio Petit, Lucas Luetge, Ramon Ramirez, Quintin Berry, Andrew Brown, Yunesky Maya, Josh Roenicke, Lou Marson, Donavan Tate

Trades

  • Acquired SS Andrelton Simmons and C Jose Briceno from Braves for SS Erick Aybar, SP Sean Newcomb, SP Chris Ellis and $2.5MM
  • Acquired 3B/SS Yunel Escobar and $1.5MM from Nationals for RP Trevor Gott and SP/RP Michael Brady
  • Acquired cash considerations from Indians for OF Collin Cowgill
  • Acquired cash considerations from Orioles for 1B/OF Efren Navarro
  • Acquired future considerations from Phillies for IF Taylor Featherston
  • Acquired 1B/3B Jefry Marte from Tigers for 2B Kody Eaves

Claims

  • Claimed IF Rey Navarro off waivers from Orioles
  • Claimed RP A.J. Achter off waivers from Phillies
  • Claimed RP Deolis Guerra and 1B Ji-Man Choi in Rule 5 Draft
  • Claimed RP Rob Rasmussen off waivers from Mariners (Rasmussen has since retired)

Extensions

  • None

Notable Losses

  • Chris Iannetta, David Freese, David Murphy, Cesar Ramos, Shane Victorino, Matt Joyce, Mat Latos, Dan Robertson, Aybar, Gott, Cowgill, Navarro, Featherston

Needs Addressed

The offseason was only a couple of weeks old when Eppler made his first big splash, landing Andrelton Simmons in a deal that saw longtime shortstop Erick Aybar and top pitching prospects Sean Newcomb and Chris Ellis go to Atlanta.  While the Halos were criticized for an overall lack of spending this winter, acquiring Simmons required a significant financial commitment given that he’s owed $53MM through the 2020 season.

At that price, the Angels now have not just baseball’s top defensive shortstop, but perhaps its top defender at any position — Simmons’ career 21.4 UZR/150 is the best of any player from 2002-15.  While any team would benefit defensively by adding Simmons, he’s a particularly big upgrade for the Halos given that Aybar posted below-average defensive metrics over the last three seasons.  Simmons has shown flashes of hitting potential over his career and he’s still only 26, though he’s so spectacular in the field that he’ll be a valuable asset even if he continues to be a subpar hitter.

AndreltonThe acquisitions of Cliff Pennington and Rey Navarro added to the theme of defense up the middle.  Pennington has shown some good glovework at second over his career, while Navarro (who made his MLB debut in 2015) has been regarded as an excellent defensive middle infielder over his nine-year pro career.  They’ll be backup options in the middle infield or perhaps even platoon options for Johnny Giavotella at second, who struggled defensively in 2015 and didn’t show too much at the plate.

There’s a chance Yunel Escobar could end up at second if once-touted prospects Kaleb Cowart or Kyle Kubitza emerge, though in all likelihood, the Angels will stick with their plan of using Escobar as the everyday third baseman.  After talks of a reunion with David Freese didn’t develop, Anaheim dealt hard-throwing ground ball specialist Trevor Gott to Washington for Escobar and $1.5MM to go towards covering part of the veteran infielder’s $7MM salary.

Escobar was a defensive liability at third last season, though it was his first time playing the hot corner since 2007.  Having Simmons play next to him should help in that regard, though the Angels are mostly hoping Escobar can add some pop to the lineup.  In his age 32-season, he hit .314/.375/.415 (his highest totals in all slash line categories since 2009) with nine homers over 591 plate appearances for the Nats.  Escobar did benefit from a .347 BABIP, however, so it remains to be seen if he can come close to replicating that performance in pitcher-friendly Angel Stadium.

Losing Gott isn’t too big a blow to a fairly deep Angels bullpen, but the club did go on to acquire some low-cost depth in Al Albuquerque, Javy Guerra and a few other notable veteran names on minor league deals.  Right-hander and Rule 5 Draft pick Deolis Guerra will also have to stay on the 25-man roster all season or else Los Angeles will lose him back to Pittsburgh.

With Chris Iannetta gone to the Mariners in free agency, the Angels signed Geovany Soto to handle most of the catching duties, though Carlos Perez could end up receiving as much as half the playing time behind the plate.  Soto brings the type of defense (particularly in pitch-framing and throwing out baserunners) that manager Mike Scioscia always looks for in his catchers, so he could up being a very good value on his one-year, $2.8MM contract.

Speaking of value, veterans Craig Gentry and Daniel Nava are slated for a left field platoon at the combined price of $2.375MM.  On paper, this combo could work quite well — Gentry is a career .274/.354/.366 hitter against lefties while Nava has a .281/.377/.409 slash line against righties.  The problem is that neither player has hit much of anything over the last two seasons, so there’s plenty of room for the likes of newcomers Rafael Ortega, Todd Cunningham, Quintin Berry or Gary Brown to earn playing time.

Continue reading after the page break for more analysis …

Read more

Questions Remaining

While owner Arte Moreno insisted that he’s willing to go over the $189MM luxury tax threshold in the right circumstance, it seems that this offseason didn’t fit that criteria.  Moreno said last month that his team is only about $2MM short of the $189MM limit, as luxury tax payroll is based on average annual value of contracts and bonuses, rather than straight dollar amounts.

Going over the $189MM limit would trigger a 17.5% penalty on the overage, though since the tax rate jumps to 30% for a second year over the threshold, Moreno’s concern was that the Angels wouldn’t be able to avoid a repeater tax in 2017 if they exceeded the limit in 2016.  Several big contracts (C.J. Wilson, Jered Weaver, Joe Smith) come off the books next winter, though those savings could be partially offset by large arbitration raises for Garrett Richards and Kole Calhoun, a $2MM salary bump for Simmons and a $4MM bump for Mike Trout.

In summation, Eppler didn’t have much money to spend this winter.  Attempts to trade Wilson and his $20.5MM salary for 2016 were unsuccessful, as the Angels weren’t willing to sell low on the lefty just for the sake of unloading him.  Hector Santiago and Matt Shoemaker were also the subject of trade speculation, with Santiago seemingly coming close to being dealt to Baltimore in November.

Ultimately, the Angels decided to hang onto all of their notable Major League arms and perhaps with good reason, given that the L.A. rotation has its share of issues.  Beyond Richards and Andrew Heaney, the 33-year-old Weaver is battling a bulging disk in his neck and trying to rebound from a few years of injuries and declining velocity.  Wilson is dealing with shoulder problems and is facing the possibility of beginning the season on the DL.  Santiago, Shoemaker and Nick Tropeano are all battling for a rotation spot.  Tyler Skaggs will also return at some point this season (maybe even by late April), though his effectiveness and durability in the wake of Tommy John surgery is unknown.

It’s a rotation that would’ve certainly been helped by one of the notable names in this winter’s free agent pitching market but, again, the Angels’ lack of available spending was a roadblock to any major signings.  This was especially true as the Halos looked at ways of filling their holes at second and left field — while they at least touched base with names like Howie Kendrick for second and some of the top-tier outfielders available (Justin Upton, Yoenis Cespedes, Alex Gordon, Jason Heyward), those names weren’t realistic unless Moreno was willing to bite the luxury tax bullet.  Kendrick came at a much lower price tag than the outfielders, though he would’ve come at the notable cost of the Angels’ first round draft pick, which now sits at 16th overall now that Kendrick and the other qualifying offer free agents have all signed.

That first rounder is of particular importance given how the Angels essentially cleaned out what was left of their minor league system to land Simmons.  When the 2016 Baseball America Handbook not only ranks your farm system last in the league but also adds a joking disclaimer to the listing (“Side effects of reading through the entire Angels Top 30 may include drowsiness and an upset stomach“), one has to question whether dealing Newcomb and Ellis was a wise move.  As great as Simmons is with the glove, if Anaheim was willing to deal its two best young arms for a long-term Major League chip, it could be argued that the club should’ve pursued a proven hitter instead.  The alternative would’ve been to hang onto Aybar for the last year of his contract and then look for a new long-term shortstop next winter.

Eppler connected on the trades for Simmons and Escobar, though other possibilities were explored on the infield trade market.  L.A. was rumored to be interested in Twins third baseman Trevor Plouffe and ex-Pirates second baseman Neil Walker at various points this offseason, though Plouffe stayed put in Minnesota and Walker was dealt to the Mets.  On the outfield front, the Angels were one of many teams who called about the Rockies’ outfielders, with Charlie Blackmon being of particular interest to Anaheim.  Colorado ended up dealing Corey Dickerson to the Rays, however, so they’re probably done shopping their outfielders for now.

The biggest trade that went by the boards, of course, was the proposed three-team deal with the Blue Jays and Reds that would’ve seen Jay Bruce go to Toronto and Michael Saunders on the move to Anaheim.  Saunders would’ve provided more upside in left field than the Gentry/Nava combo, but he would’ve been far from a sure thing given that he missed all but nine games last season due to knee injuries.  Speaking of Bruce, there was some speculation earlier this winter that he would’ve been a fit for the Angels, though there wasn’t any indication that L.A. was actually interested.

It wouldn’t surprise me if the Angels still made a move to address left field before Opening Day, since as it stands, the club is really no better off at left or at second now than they were when last season ended.  The same could also be said of catcher and third base, as the Halos were content to essentially just match Freese and Iannetta’s production rather than look for substantial improvements.

It all adds up to more or less a treading-water type of offseason for a club that could’ve used some upgrading around the diamond.  If the Angels do end up essentially breaking even at catcher, left, second and third, that means the club is relying on C.J. Cron to break out as a consistent power bat, Albert Pujols to recover from offseason foot surgery and return to the lineup as soon as possible, and Calhoun to rebound at the plate.  The only sure things Anaheim can truly count on in its lineup are Trout’s continued all-around excellence and great glovework from Simmons and Calhoun.

Deal Of Note

As mentioned earlier, BABIP played a role in Escobar’s big season at the plate.  Despite Escobar’s good numbers, however, Freese was actually the slightly more valuable of the two players (2.2 fWAR to 2.1 fWAR) since Freese held a big advantage on defense and was only a bit less productive on offense.

YunelMLBTR predicted Freese would find a three-year, $30MM deal in a very thin third base market this offseason, though interest was scarce and he had to settle for a one-year, $3MM deal with Pittsburgh.  I wonder if the Angels have had any second thoughts about obtaining Escobar and paying him $5.5MM for 2016 when they could’ve waited a bit longer and potentially brought back Freese at a lesser price.  In fairness to the Halos, Freese’s asking price early in the offseason was undoubtedly a multi-year deal in the neighborhood of $10MM per year, so that early-December trade for Escobar seemed at the time like the thriftier option.  The team hardly could’ve imagined that Freese would still be available in March, though by waiting even into January to address third base, Anaheim could’ve landed Freese or perhaps another third baseman (Juan Uribe?).  That might’ve both saved the team some money and allowed it to keep Gott (who also could’ve been dealt elsewhere to fill another need).

Freese has his share of question marks as well, so the choice between he and Escobar performance-wise could at best be a wash.  (Freese had a slightly elevated .310 BABIP himself last year, it’s worth noting.)  The Angels have a $7MM club option on Escobar for 2017 with a $1MM buyout, so if L.A. chooses to part ways with him, it’ll work out to a total price tag of $6.5MM, or more than twice what the Pirates are paying Freese.  In an offseason when every dollar counted for the Angels, that extra $3.5MM could’ve been very helpful in going towards other roster needs.

Overview

With the Angels so close to the luxury tax line and with virtually no minor league trade chips left to move, Eppler will have to be very creative in order to make any notable roster adds at the trade deadline.  (Though if the team is in contention at midseason, Moreno may decide paying the tax is worth it to chase a pennant.)  The team’s long list of waiver claims and minor league signings indicate that Eppler is leaving no stone unturned in search for ways to improve his team, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Angels continue to be very active on the waiver wire all season long.

The Angels were 85-77 last season and a league-best 35-17 in one-run games, which overshadowed the fact that the club actually had a negative (-14) run differential.  Was it just a relatively off-year for a core that won 98 games in 2014, or were the Halos simply fortunate to be in the playoff hunt (or even a winning team) whatsoever?  With this uncertainty about the Angels’ true talent level in mind, it’s understandable why Moreno may have been unwilling to splurge this offseason after being such an aggressive spender in past years.  It could be that Moreno felt this roster was more than one or two big contracts away from contending, or he simply showed some restraint after past big-ticket acquisitions like Pujols, Vernon Wells or Josh Hamilton ranged from disappointing to disastrous.

It wouldn’t be surprising to see Eppler try to move Wilson, Weaver, Smith or even Escobar as the season goes on in order to free up payroll space, even if the Angels are in contention.  (Assuming both starters are healthy, of course; it’s also worth noting that Weaver has a full no-trade clause and Wilson can block deals to eight teams.)  L.A. could use that saved money to address other needs at the trade deadline, for instance.  For such moves to happen, however, Anaheim needs some young players to move from question marks to consistent producers.  Shoemaker returning to his 2014 form, Skaggs returning healthy or Tropeano emerging would be hugely helpful to the Angels both for the sake of this season and in the big picture.

Expect the Angels to return to their usual aggressive selves next winter once they get some payroll breathing room and they have a better sense of what they have in several of their young players.  As for 2016, they’ll need a few breaks to challenge for a postseason spot in a very competitive American League, though there’s certainly enough talent on board to make it happen.

How would you grade the Angels’ offseason? (link to poll for mobile app users)

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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NL Central Notes: Cubs, Pirates, Brewers, Reds

By Zachary Links | March 22, 2016 at 8:30pm CDT

No team will fret over having too much in the way of talent, but Phil Rogers of MLB.com wonders if the Cubs’ depth could stifle the growth of Javier Baez and Jorge Soler.  In the case of Baez, manager Joe Maddon believes that he can get enough work in as a utility player.  Overall, Maddon is grateful to have such strong insurance against injuries.

“It’s obvious just by making the daily lineups now,” he said on Sunday. “When you give guys a day off playing but the team that goes to play that day is pretty thick still. That’s what has hit home with me. … The depth is really intriguing. You need that to be successful during the course of a long season. You’re going to have things happen. No question.”

Here’s more out of the NL Central:

  • Stephen J. Nesbitt of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette took on the tough task of predicting the Pirates’ Opening Day roster.  His projections do not include outfielder Matt Joyce, who was brought in on a minor-league deal this offseason.  Nesbitt’s writes that his projections could be thrown off by a few factors, including the possibility that Michael Morse is moved in anticipation of Jung Ho Kang’s return.
  • Brewers left-hander Sean Nolin won’t be ready for Opening Day and that could have roster implications for Milwaukee, as Tom Haudricourt of the Journal-Sentinel writes.  As Nolin deals with his elbow issue, only two lefties – Chris Capuano and Franklin Morales – are left vying for spots and both were brought in on minor league deals.  Those two southpaws plus reliever Blaine Boyer have opt out clauses in their contracts that could spring them from their deals before Opening Day.
  • Nolin is out-of-options, but his elbow issue likely will buy the Brewers time in making a decision on him, Haudricourt tweets.  Nolin is likely destined for the DL.
  • J.J. Hoover is likely to be the Reds’ closer and manager Bryan Price says he would “definitely” be the choice if the season started now, Mark Sheldon of MLB.com writes.  Hoover, who won his arbitration case against the Reds this offseason, could help his arb case next offseason if he can rack up saves.
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Red Sox Notes: Sandoval, Shaw, Dombrowski

By Zachary Links | March 22, 2016 at 6:44pm CDT

The Red Sox aren’t “actively looking” for pitching help, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski tells Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports.

“Can you always be better? Sure. Will we always be open-minded? Sure. But we’re not actively looking for pitching,” said Dombrowski, who added that he doesn’t “even know where” he would slot a No. 2 starter type.

Here’s more out of the AL East:

  • The fact that there is a real competition between Travis Shaw and Pablo Sandoval at third base is a reminder of exactly how Dombrowski runs the Red Sox and how much control he exerts over the team, Michael Silverman of The Boston Herald writes.  For his part, Sandoval is trying to play down the attention that the brewing competition is getting.  “Every day is a competition — every single day, every moment. Every guy competes to be better and better,” Sandoval said. “I don’t know why you guys make a big deal. Every guy is here working hard to make the team look better, win games. Every guy here is working together to be better and better, so that’s good.”
  • Peter Abraham of The Boston Globe laid out the pros and cons of benching Sandoval in favor of Shaw.  On one hand, putting Sandoval on the bench would send a clear message to players like Rick Porcello, Hanley Ramirez, and Rusney Castillo that a high-priced contract does not guarantee your place as a starter.  On the other hand, Sandoval is the type of player that needs support to succeed rather than negativity.  Also, Sandoval probably wouldn’t be much of a contributor off the bench and would likely be relegated to pinch-hitting against righties, Abraham writes.
  • Indeed, Dombrowski says that he does not believe that contracts should dictate spots in the lineup, as Rob Bradford of WEEI.com writes. “I thought it was important, because I’m new here, that that was my philosophy, and our philosophy as an organization, that I had a chance to visit with [principal owner] John Henry and [chairman] Tom Werner and know they supported that. I thought it was important to do that. I think for good organizations, and clubs that are trying to win, you need to play the best guys to win,” Dombrowski said.
  • Earlier today, the Red Sox announced that reliever Carson Smith will be placed on the disabled list due to a strain of his flexor mass muscle.
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Dodgers OF Andre Ethier Out 10-14 Weeks

By Zachary Links | March 22, 2016 at 4:33pm CDT

The Dodgers announced that Andre Ethier has suffered a broken leg, as Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times tweets.  The fractured right tibia will sideline the outfielder for 10-14 weeks.  Luckily, the outfielder will not require surgery.

Ethier, 34 in April, slumped to a .249/.322/.370 slash line in 2014 but rebounded in a major way in 2015. Last year, Ethier slashed .294/.366/.486 with 14 homers across 445 plate appearances, primarily as a platoon bat.  After he restored his value, the Dodgers received trade interest on Ethier this winter, including some bites from the White Sox.  With a crowded outfield, the Dodgers probably could have afforded to part with the two-time All-Star, but Dodgers GM Farhan Zaidi shot down that talk in February, referring to Ethier as a “really important part” of the team.  Indeed, after his bounce-back campaign, the Dodgers were looking forward to seeing what Ethier’s left-handed bat could do in 2016.  Now, they’ll have to wait until the summer to find out.

For his career, Ethier has a strong batting line of .286/.359/.464 across ten seasons for the Dodgers.  He has two years remaining on his contract and is owed $38MM, including a modest buyout on an option for 2018.  Aside from Ethier, the Dodgers have outfielders Joc Pederson, Yasiel Puig, Carl Crawford, Scott Van Slyke, Trayce Thompson, and Enrique Hernandez on the 40-man roster.  Ethier’s 10-and-5 rights kick in next month, but Zaidi has publicly said that he is not concerned about that happening.

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