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Archives for March 2016

Market Notes: Simon, Lincecum, Harang, Jimenez, Gutierrez, Fernandez

By Jeff Todd | March 18, 2016 at 3:43pm CDT

Before he signed on with the Reds, righty Alfredo Simon drew interest from some other organizations — which helps explains why Cincinnati ultimately gave him a guaranteed $2MM contract. Simon says that the Blue Jays were one team with interest, as MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon tweets. And the Marlins also reached out, according to Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald, though the club wasn’t willing to promise that kind of money to the veteran.

Here’s more on some market situations around the game:

  • The Marlins appear unlikely to add Tim Lincecum despite long being said to have interest in the comeback candidate, Jackson adds in the above-linked piece. Miami expects the price will be too steep for him, too. The Fish are not being particularly aggressive in attempting to fill in for injured reliever Carter Capps, Jackson adds.
  • Righty Aaron Harang is “not planning to pitch this season,” according to ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick (Twitter link), though he’s also apparently not quite ready to sign his retirement papers. Harang is leaving open the possibility that he’ll change his mind, per the report. That could suggest that the 37-year-old would entertain an appealing opportunity, but he presumably wasn’t interested in taking a minor league offer to compete for a job in camp. Harang had a tough season last year with the Phillies, but is only one campaign removed from posting a 3.57 ERA over 204 1/3 frames for the Braves.
  • The Astros are among a few clubs taking a look at out-of-options Blue Jays catcher A.J. Jimenez, the Houston Chronicle’s Jose de Jesus Ortiz reports (via Twitter). Jimenez, 25, hasn’t yet cracked the majors and hasn’t done much at the plate in the upper minors while dealing with a string of injuries. But he’s a former top-30 Baseball America organizational prospect, and is said to be a high-quality defender. Houston, of course, has a need with Max Stassi sidelined by wrist surgery, and Toronto doesn’t appear to have any inclination to put Jimenez onto the active roster.
  • Cuban free agent Vladimir Gutierrez has re-established some of his lost sheen with an impressive recent showcase outing, Baseball America’s J.J. Cooper reports (subscription required and recommended). The 20-year-old has gone unsigned despite his strong prospect pedigree, with Cooper explaining that he’s churned through three agencies while struggling to show the same ability that first drew scouts to him in his homeland. In his most recent outing, Gutierrez touched the mid-90s with his fastball, showed a return to his typically excellent curve, and even demonstrated progress with his change, according to the report. He remains eligible to sign at any time, though he will still be subject to international bonus pools.
  • Speaking of international matters, the Padres have long been expected to make some big investments in the coming months. Cuban second baseman Jose Fernandez may well be a leading name that will head to San Diego, according to a recent report from Peter Gammons of GammonsDaily.com (Twitter link). Fernandez reportedly left the island in search of a major league opportunity, though he has apparently not yet been granted free agency. Of course, recent rule changes could significantly impact his timeline. Fernandez, 27, is viewed as being more or less ready for major league action, and he could constitute a significant near and long-term addition for a Padres organization that lacks much certainty in the infield.
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Cincinnati Reds Houston Astros Miami Marlins San Diego Padres Toronto Blue Jays Aaron Harang Alfredo Simon Jose Fernandez 2B Tim Lincecum Vladimir Gutierrez

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White Sox Outright Zach Phillips, Who Elects Free Agency

By Jeff Todd | March 18, 2016 at 3:17pm CDT

The White Sox have outrighted lefty Zach Phillips, Dan Hayes of CSN Chicago was among those to report (via Twitter). Phillips rejected an assignment to Triple-A and elected free agency.

Chicago had added the 29-year-old southpaw to its 40-man roster to protect him from the Rule 5 draft. He spent last year at Triple-A for the organization after coming back over from Japan, working to a 3.13 ERA over 5 2/3 innings with 10.5 K/9 against 3.3 BB/9. Phillips has made 19 total big league appearances over parts of three seasons, but hasn’t cracked the majors since 2013.

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Chicago White Sox Transactions Zach Phillips

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Mariners Re-Sign Justin De Fratus To Minors Pact

By Jeff Todd | March 18, 2016 at 1:26pm CDT

The Mariners have re-signed righty Justin De Fratus, according to a team press release. He was recently released from the MLB deal he signed with the club earlier in the winter, and will now return to major league camp on a minor league contract.

De Fratus was brought in with hopes that he could return to the form he showed with the Phillies back in 2014. He struggled last year, ultimately losing his roster spot in Philadelphia, and he’s reportedly been unable to regain his former velocity thus far in camp. His results reflect that, but Seattle obviously saw enough to want a continued look — without the commitment of a 40-man slot.

 

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Seattle Mariners Transactions Justin De Fratus

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Braves Return Rule 5 Pick Evan Rutckyj To Yankees

By Jeff Todd | March 18, 2016 at 1:19pm CDT

The Braves have returned Rule 5 selection Evan Rutckyj to the Yankees, according to an announcement from New York. He obviously cleared waivers given that he’s going back to the New York system, indicating that the rest of the league passed on a chance to step into his Rule 5 rights.

Rutckyj, a 24-year-old southpaw, reached the Double-A level last year for the Yankees and will be shipped to Triple-A upon his return. He spent most of the year at High-A in 2015, and in total ran up 61 2/3 innings of 2.63 ERA pitching with an impressive 12.0 K/9 against 3.1 BB/9.

Atlanta obviously didn’t think that Rutckyj was quite ready to carry that production to a full season in the majors. He got three innings this spring, allowing only one hit but surrendering five free passes.

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Atlanta Braves New York Yankees Rule 5 Draft Transactions

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Latest On Adam LaRoche Retirement Controversy

By Jeff Todd | March 18, 2016 at 11:52am CDT

We already rounded up some of the fallout yesterday regarding the complicated Adam LaRoche retirement situation — see here and here — but there’s continued intrigue surrounding the White Sox. Here’s the latest:

  • Union chief Tony Clark has “indicated” that a grievance could be considered on LaRoche’s behalf, according to Andy McCullough, reporting for the Chicago Tribune. Clark says he hasn’t spoken with LaRoche and suggested that he is waiting for more facts to emerge before deciding on a course of action. “The question becomes when a player makes a decision to retire, that means one thing,” Clark said. “If there is a discipline involved, that means something different. We are 24 hours removed from everything that you are aware of. And I can suggest to you that we are likely aware of a little bit more, but aren’t in a position to suggest what tomorrow is going to look like, as a result of what happened yesterday.”
  • Adam Eaton, the club’s union player rep, said he has been in contact with the MLBPA regarding a possible grievance, Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times reports (links to Twitter). Per Eaton, LaRoche told him that his son’s locker room presence was a part of his agreement upon joining the organiation. He added that players hope to meet with Sox owner Jerry Reinsdorf in the coming days.
  • There are reports suggesting that some White Sox players did complain to higher-ups about the presence of children in the locker room — see this tweet from CBSChicago.com’s Dan Bernstein — but third baseman Todd Frazier contests that fact in a comment to Bruce Levine of 670thescore.com (via Twitter).
  • Ace Chris Sale, meanwhile, says that his concern is that president Kenny Williams has given the club varying stories about where complaints came from — players, coaches, or Reinsdorf — per Colleen Kane of the Chicago Tribune (Twitter link). The star lefty had very strong words for Williams, telling reporters that he and his teammates were “bold-faced lied to” by Williams, as Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports.
  • As for Williams, he declined to comment on the matter further. He tells Levine that it’s “time for us to get to work.” (Twitter link.) Buster Olney of ESPN.com rounded up anonymous reactions from some of Williams’s peers, providing some interesting insight from other organizations.
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Chicago White Sox Adam LaRoche

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AL West Notes: Street, Simmons, De Fratus, Romero, Rangers

By Jeff Todd | March 18, 2016 at 10:58am CDT

If you’re wondering how Angels closer Huston Street has managed to continue befuddling major league hitters despite a lack of an overwhelming fastball, the answer may lie in his incredibly strict routine. As MLB.com’s Alden Gonzalez explains in an interesting piece, Street’s daily regimen is shaped by lessons learned from his late father.

Here’s more from the AL West:

  • Angels shortstop Andrelton Simmons, the organization’s key offseason addition, has now missed four straight days to rest his arm, as Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register reports. Manager Mike Scioscia reiterated that the team isn’t concerned with Simmons’s health and is merely “err[ing] on the side of caution.”
  • Mariners skipper Scott Servais says the club has interest in bringing back just-released righty Justin De Fratus on a minor league arrangement, Bob Dutton of the Tacoma News Tribune reports on Twitter. That continued interest and the move’s timing could suggest there was a financial motivation for setting De Fratus back on the open market, since there was no corresponding 40-man addition. Also, stashing him in the minors might be the organization’s preferred outcome, and he is out of options. Whether or not De Fratus returns to the fold, Seattle is said to be on the lookout for additional bullpen candidates.
  • The Mariners have several options for right-handed power bats in the first base/DH mix, and MLB.com’s Greg Johns notes that it would be unwise to count out Stefen Romero. He has impressed at the plate and in the field thus far, though he’ll likely still need to beat out both Jesus Montero and Dae-ho Lee to earn a roster spot.
  • Derek Norris may be a more sensible target for the Rangers than Jonathan Lucroy, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News opines. Salary and length of control are the two main factors, but Grant notes that there are some reasons to prefer Norris over Lucroy from an on-field perspective, too.
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Los Angeles Angels Seattle Mariners Texas Rangers Andrelton Simmons Derek Norris Huston Street Justin De Fratus

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Brad Penny To Retire

By Jeff Todd | March 18, 2016 at 10:17am CDT

Veteran right-hander Brad Penny is hanging up his spikes, according to MLB.com’s Gregor Chisholm (via Twitter). Penny has been in camp with the Blue Jays on a minor league deal.

Now 37, Penny is rather far removed from productivity at the MLB level.  Indeed, you could argue that his last full and fully effective season came way back in 2007 with the Dodgers, when he posted a career-low 3.03 ERA over a career-high 208 frames.

To that point — his age-29 season — the righty had provided 1,365 2/3 innings of 3.90 ERA pitching in extended stints with the Marlins and Dodgers. Since, he’s only appeared in 559 1/3 MLB innings and owns a composite 5.23 ERA, with his strikeout rate falling to less than five batters per nine.

Penny isn’t alone in battling the effects of age and injury, of course, and there’s a lot to commend about his willingness to keep returning to the hill — even when it’s in the minors. After leaving Los Angeles, Penny bounced from the Red Sox to the Giants, then on to the Cardinals for an injury-shortened run.

A stop in Japan did not work out as hoped, and Penny wasn’t effective in a relief role upon returning to San Francisco. He sat out all of 2013 before returning to the Marlins the following year though he couldn’t replicate a solid minor league showing at the MLB level. Last year, Penny made 24 starts at Triple-A for the White Sox, working to a 4.46 ERA with 5.4 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9.

Cracking the Toronto roster always seemed a longshot, but this spring hadn’t gone as Penny probably hoped after entering camp as one of several bounceback veterans (among them Gavin Floyd, Roberto Hernandez, Wade LeBlanc, Randy Choate, David Aardsma, and Rafael Soriano, who is reportedly also retiring). He’s received a legitimate look — his seven frames is third-most in the organization — but the results haven’t been there. Penny has surrendered eight earned runs on 12 hits and four walks, with just three strikeouts on his ledger.

All said, it’s been a nice run for Penny, who ended up appearing in 14 MLB seasons and racked up 26.8 fWAR — most of it during his prime years with the Marlins and Dodgers. Penny played a major role on the then-Florida Marlins’ 2003 championship squad, taking the ball every fifth day during the regular season and logging two World Series wins. Los Angeles ultimately acquired him along with Hee-Seop Choi and Bill Murphy in a 2004 deadline deal that sent Juan Encarnacion, Paul Lo Duca, and Guillermo Mota to the Fish.

MLBTR wishes Penny the best of luck moving forward.

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Toronto Blue Jays Transactions Brad Penny Retirement

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Brad Boxberger Out 8 Weeks After Core Muscle Surgery

By Jeff Todd | March 18, 2016 at 8:41am CDT

Rays closer Brad Boxberger will be out of action for eight weeks after undergoing core muscle surgery, per manager Kevin Cash (via Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times, Twitter links). Tampa Bay doesn’t expect to look for an outside addition, preferring instead to utilize internal options without naming a single 9th-inning man while Boxberger is out.

The Rays thinned out their pitching depth somewhat over the winter, bringing in options in the field in trades that cost the club arms such as Jake McGee and Nate Karns. McGee, certainly, would have been the obvious choice to fill in for Boxberger were he still with the club.

As things stand, Alex Colome looks like a good bet to receive the lion’s share of the save opportunities that arise — even if he’s not anointed as the closer. After all, the live-armed righty was reportedly set to receive frequent eighth-inning assignments in a setup role. Other possibilities include right-handers Danny Farquhar and Steve Geltz and southpaw Xavier Cedeno.

Of course, unlike the cross-state Marlins’ season-long loss of Carter Capps, this injury promises only to be a temporary setback. Any significant injury is cause for concern with a pitcher — the lingering effects and cascading impact on a delivery can be a subtle threat — and it isn’t clear whether the eight-week estimated timetable is for Boxberger’s return to baseball activities or to a major league mound. But it seems there’s at least hope that he’ll be able to make it back before May is out.

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Newsstand Tampa Bay Rays Brad Boxberger

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Offseason In Review: Chicago Cubs

By Tim Dierkes | March 18, 2016 at 7:00am CDT

Check out all the published entries in our Offseason in Review series here.

The Cubs added tons of veteran talent to an already-strong team, mostly through free agency.

Major League Signings

  • Jason Heyward, RF: eight years, $184MM.  Heyward can opt out after 2018 season or after 2019 season with 550 plate appearances in 2019.  Includes deferred money.
  • Ben Zobrist, 2B: four years, $56MM
  • John Lackey, SP: two years, $32MM
  • Dexter Fowler, CF: one year, $13MM.  Includes $9MM mutual option for 2017 with a $5MM buyout.
  • Trevor Cahill, RP: one year, $4.25MM
  • Andury Acevedo, RP: one year, $700K.  Split contract, worth $200K in minors.
  • Total spend: $289.95MM.

Notable Minor League Signings

  • Aaron Crow, Stephen Fife, Brandon Gomes, Jean Machi, Edgar Olmos, Jack Leathersich, Manny Parra, Jonathan Pettibone, Tim Federowicz, Jesus Guzman, Munenori Kawasaki, Kristopher Negron, Matt Murton, Juan Perez, Shane Victorino

Trades And Claims

  • Claimed RP Ryan Cook off waivers from Red Sox (Cubs non-tendered Cook on December 2nd)
  • Claimed RP Jack Leathersich off waivers from Mets (Leathersich elected free agency and was signed to a minor league deal by the Cubs in December)
  • Acquired RP Spencer Patton from Rangers for 2B Frandy De La Rosa
  • Claimed RP Edgar Olmos off waivers from Mariners (Olmos claimed by Orioles from Cubs on December 10th, (claimed back by Cubs on December 23rd, outrighted by Cubs in February)
  • Acquired RP Rex Brothers from Rockies for P Wander Cabrera (Cubs released Brothers on March 10th)
  • Acquired P Adam Warren and IF Brendan Ryan from Yankees for 2B Starlin Castro (Cubs released Ryan on December 23rd)
  • Claimed RP C.J. Riefenhauser off waivers from Orioles
  • Acquired P Aaron Brooks from Athletics for OF/2B Chris Coghlan

Notable Losses

  • Starlin Castro, Chris Coghlan, Frandy De La Rosa, Wander Cabrera, Chris Denorfia, Jonathan Herrera, Dan Haren, Jason Motte, James Russell, Tsuyoshi Wada, Tommy Hunter, Fernando Rodney

Needs Addressed

Entering the offseason, it was no secret that the Cubs had a middle infield surplus with Addison Russell, Javier Baez, and Starlin Castro.  With four years and $38MM remaining on his contract, Castro was the most likely to go.  The Yankees were a natural match, having shown interest in Castro during the summer.  As Yankees GM Brian Cashman told John Harper of the New York Daily News, the Cubs initially asked for outfielder Brett Gardner and were rebuffed.  Then, after a month of the Cubs pestering Cashman for swingman Adam Warren, the Yankees gave in and the trade agreement was reached.  Still, the Castro trade was delayed for a few days, as the Cubs were simultaneously attempting to sign Ben Zobrist as a free agent.

The Cubs achieved Theo Epstein’s “multiple-bank shot,” moving on from Castro after six big league seasons.  I was surprised by the Cubs’ plan to move Castro to make room for a second baseman from outside the organization.  Instead of plugging Baez in at second base, the Cubs went with veteran Ben Zobrist, who turns 35 in May.  Zobrist served as Joe Maddon’s Swiss Army knife for six seasons after establishing himself in the Majors with the Rays.  While Zobrist may not be the defensive asset he once was, he’s still an excellent high-contact hitter and potential three-win player.  The Cubs should get good value with Zobrist at $14MM a year, despite the riskiness of signing a player through age 38.  He’s a clear improvement over Castro, and with the Yankees taking on Castro’s contract, two-thirds of Zobrist’s deal is covered.  The Cubs can rest assured that competition was stiff for Zobrist, with the Mets and Giants willing to go to $60MM and the Nationals making a play.

With the addition of Warren, the Cubs proved that Castro did indeed have mild positive trade value despite the middle infielder’s contract and up-and-down career.  In Warren, the Cubs received a useful pitcher who is under club control for three years.  The 28-year-old can serve as an effective reliever or credible fifth starter depending on the Cubs’ needs.

The Cubs’ primary offseason need was to add an impact starting pitcher.  Though Epstein later told WEEI the Cubs were “very interested” in the best available option, free agent David Price, the Cubs’ president also admitted, “We ended up a distant third” in the bidding.  Shortly after Price’s agreement with the Red Sox, the Cubs reached an agreement 37-year-old veteran starter John Lackey on a two-year deal.  Epstein had previously signed Lackey as Red Sox GM six years prior.  As Epstein explained in that same WEEI interview, “There’s risk inherent in longer pitching contracts, and having a pitcher the caliber of John Lackey on a two-year deal was a no-brainer for us.”  I thought Lackey would command a three-year deal even at his advanced age and with a qualifying offer attached, so plucking him from the Cardinals on a two-year term was a big win.

By the Winter Meetings, the Cubs had made significant improvements to an already-strong club, without surrendering prospects or adding a major financial burden (at least for a big-market team).  Soon, it became apparent the Cubs’ biggest move was yet to come.  They were again tangling with the Cardinals and Nationals for a free agent: Jason Heyward.  We’ll have more on the Heyward signing in the Deal Of Note section.

With the Cubs adding Zobrist, Lackey, and Heyward,  the rich got richer.  Heyward was penciled in at a new position, center field, since Dexter Fowler was expected to sign elsewhere as a free agent and the Cubs already had Jorge Soler as the right field incumbent.  It appears that the Cubs kicked around a lot of trade possibilities, likely involving Soler and Baez.  Meanwhile, the team quietly re-added Trevor Cahill on a one-year deal.  Cahill turned down a more definitive rotation offer from the Pirates to stay with the Cubs, even though he seems likely to begin the year in the bullpen.  Cahill’s contract calls for incentives both for starts and relief appearances.  The 28-year-old first joined the Cubs in August on a minor league deal.  He pitched for the big league club in September and after a dominant month out of the pen became a key late-inning reliever in the playoffs.  The signing gives the Cubs four potential swingmen, along with Warren, Clayton Richard, and Travis Wood.

As February came to a close, the Cubs’ offseason seemed to have reached a successful conclusion, as they were down to tinkering with free agents on minor league deals.  Then, in the course of a few hours, Epstein stunningly completed another multiple-bank shot.  First, news broke that outfielder Chris Coghlan, whose presence on the Cubs’ roster was already somewhat redundant, had been traded to Oakland for Aaron Brooks.  This trade seemed mostly about clearing Coghlan’s $4.8MM salary.  Coghlan, a free agent after 2016, raked right-handed pitching with a .277/.354/.478 line from 2014-15.  Brooks, meanwhile, will soon turn 26 and has yet to experience big league success.  He’s got an interesting change-up and could develop into a useful pitcher, but it was a light return for Coghlan.

Shortly after the Coghlan trade, the Cubs announced that center fielder Dexter Fowler had re-signed on a one-year deal.  Although media reports suggested Fowler had a multiyear agreement in place with the Orioles, Fowler, his agent, and Orioles executive vice president of baseball operations Dan Duquette later said that was never the case.  Instead, Fowler’s talks with the Orioles fell apart when they wouldn’t give him an opt-out clause, and the Cubs swooped in with a low-risk one-year deal.  While it’s true the Cubs sacrificed another potential draft pick, Fowler basically fell into their laps.  Heyward is now penciled in at his natural right field position, Fowler returns in center, and the Cubs have a pair of highly-regarded young players in Soler and Kyle Schwarber in left field.

Continued analysis after the break …

Read more

Questions Remaining

In Soler and Baez, the Cubs have a pair of big league ready, highly-regarded early-20s players without starting roles.  This is generally a good problem to have.  Still, each player would ideally be getting regular playing time, and the Cubs’ acquisitions at least imply uncertainty in the pair.  So far, the Cubs have taken the safe route with Soler and Baez, holding onto them and hoping their value either increases or stays the same.  Without knowing the trade offers that came in this winter, it’s difficult to assess that decision.  Most likely, the depth will be necessary, as the Cubs can mitigate the damage of injuries to their starters better than most teams.  Of course, Soler and Baez may still be traded anytime between now and August 1st.

By the playoffs, the Cubs had assembled a strong bullpen, which included resurgent veterans like Cahill and Richard.  The club could have issues if those resurgences don’t carry over, as Warren was the only real offseason addition.  Though the Cubs have Wood and Richard from the left side, it seems that left-handed relief was an area of focus for them given the minor additions of Rex Brothers (since released), C.J. Riefenhauser, Edgar Olmos, Jack Leathersich, and Manny Parra.

Did the Cubs do enough to improve their rotation?  Jake Arrieta, Jon Lester, Jason Hammel, and Kyle Hendricks remain in place, and on paper Lackey definitely makes the rotation better.  The biggest concern is regression or injury for Arrieta, who tallied nearly 250 innings in 2015.  The Cubs have a slew of swingmen to step in if someone gets hurt, but it’s still true that the front office chose to allocate most of their free agent budget to add to a strength, position players.  Given the Cubs’ trade chips and this offseason’s unprecedented free agent starting pitching, it was surprising to see the Cubs only come away with Lackey.

The Cubs were unable to reach a long-term agreement with Arrieta, instead avoiding arbitration with a one-year,  $10.7MM deal.  Arrieta is due another potentially large raise for the 2017 season, after which he’ll be eligible for free agency.  I think the fact that the Cubs did not add a $20MM+ starting pitcher leaves the door open for an Arrieta extension, even if agent Scott Boras strongly prefers to take his clients to the open market.  In October, I suggested Arrieta’s salary expectations covering his free agent years would likely match that of Zack Greinke, and then Greinke signed an unprecedented six-year, $206.5MM deal with the Diamondbacks.  That would be on top of Arrieta’s 2017 salary.  Arrieta just won the Cy Young award with a season for the ages.  Can his price really get any higher if the Cubs wait another year, or even two?  In general, do the Cubs want a Greinke-like contract on the books?  Arrieta’s contract status will be an ongoing question mark for Epstein and company.

Speaking of Epstein, the Cubs’ chief architect is signed only through 2016.  Based on public comments from Epstein and Cubs owner Tom Ricketts, a new contract seems inevitable.  Comments Ricketts made to Bruce Levine of CBSChicago.com indicate that a new deal for Epstein is likely to once again make him baseball’s highest-paid executive.  With Andrew Friedman earning $7MM a year with the Dodgers, I wonder if Epstein’s new contract will push a $10MM salary.

Deal Of Note

Feb 29, 2016; Mesa, AZ, USA; Chicago Cubs outfielder Jason Heyward poses for a portrait during photo day at Sloan Park. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

I was surprised to see the Cubs aggressively pursuing Jason Heyward, because right field didn’t seem like a primary need for the club.  Nonetheless, they signed the offseason’s best position player to an eight-year deal guaranteeing $184MM.  The Cubs also stoked a longtime rivalry, as the Cardinals tried to retain Heyward.  Crucially, Heyward can opt out of his deal with the Cubs after three years.  If he doesn’t opt out after that 2018 season, and then picks up 550 plate appearances in 2019, he has another chance to opt out.  As Matt Swartz explained in a January article for MLBTR, it’s not likely Heyward opts out after 2019 if he doesn’t after 2018.  Swartz values Heyward’s opt-out clauses at about $25MM, so the Cubs were able to reduce the guarantee to Heyward by about 12% by taking on downside risk.

Including an opt-out clause was a prerequisite to signing Heyward, who was an unusually young free agent at 26 years old.  Now that the Cubs have Heyward and this contract, they have to hope he does opt out after 2018, making this a three-year, $78MM deal.  If Heyward’s 2018 season is good enough to compel him to opt out (to which Swartz assigns a 50% likelihood), then it likely means the Cubs got more than their money’s worth.  If the momentum does begin to swing clearly toward Heyward opting out after 2018, the Cubs will be presented with another Arrieta-like situation.  They’ll have already gotten surplus value and will have to decide whether to re-up with the player at market price.

Overview

This is the Cubs team fans expected Epstein to eventually build, when he was hired in the fall of 2011.  The team is overflowing with controllable position player talent for the long-term, supplemented by big-market style free agent signings.  Though they didn’t reach the World Series, the 2015 Cubs had the Cy Young winner, Rookie of the Year winner, and Manager of the Year.  Based on FanGraphs’ projected standings, the Cubs are the preseason favorite, and no other team is close.  On paper, the Cubs are a popular World Series pick.

The problem with such high expectations for any team is that “the field” still has much better odds of having the World Series winner.  Mostly, preseason favorites that fall short are done in by injuries, and the Cubs are just as susceptible as any team.  After four years, the Theo Epstein front office has stacked the odds nearly as far in the Cubs’ favor as possible, but it won’t mean anything until the franchise gets the championship monkey off its back.

So, how would you grade the Cubs’ winter moves? (Poll link for app users … )

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2015-16 Offseason In Review Chicago Cubs MLBTR Originals

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Matt Kemp Hires New Representation

By Jeff Todd | March 17, 2016 at 9:14pm CDT

Padres outfielder Matt Kemp has hired Reynolds Sports Management to represent him, according to announcements from both player and agency.

Kemp’s new representatives likely won’t have to negotiate a baseball deal for the slugger for some time. He is still playing under the eight-year, $160MM contract he signed with the Dodgers before the 2012 campaign. Kemp will earn $21.5MM anually over the next four years. (San Diego will receive $3.5MM annually from Los Angeles as part of the trade that brought him over last winter.)

That contract was negotiated by former agent and now-Diamondbacks GM Dave Stewart, who obviously was forced to wrap up his services to players when he moved to the Arizona front office. He reportedly transferred the agency to teammate and friend Dave Henderson, but Henderson passed away unexpectedly late last year.

Kemp, 31, will be looking to improve his overall output in his second season with the Pads. He scuffled in the first half of the 2015 campaign but did finish strong, compiling a .286/.339/.528 slash with 15 home runs over his final 274 plate appearances.

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San Diego Padres Matt Kemp

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