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Archives for July 2018

MLBTR Poll: Next-Best Rental Player

By Jeff Todd | July 18, 2018 at 8:31am CDT

You didn’t need to check our ranking of the 75 top trade deadline candidates to know that (former?) Orioles star Manny Machado was the best rental player on the market this summer. He’s an immensely talented, mid-prime player, the likes of which are rarely seen on the block this time of year.

Admittedly, though, deciding how to fill in that list behind Machado was not easy. The most valuable remaining potential trade candidates are those who come with future contract rights, making them less than likely to end up on the move. As for the remaining rental players, let’s just say they all have some demerits. Given the difficulties I had in deciding just how to rank the next-best players who’ll be dealt for only a few months of service, I thought it would be interesting to pose the same basic dilemma I faced to the MLBTR readership.

Note that I’m including Cole Hamels ($6MM buyout on a $20MM club option), Mike Moustakas ($1MM buyout on $15MM mutual option), and Joakim Soria ($1MM buyout on $10MM mutual option) in the poll despite the fact that all come with some future contractual considerations. While not technically rentals, these players will mostly be treated that way by the market. The mutual options are quite unlikely to come into play, in particular. While the Hamels situation is more complicated, it seems to me he should be considered alongside these other starting pitching options.

If you want my thoughts on the players in question, check out the blurbs in the rankings post linked to above. Which do you think is the best asset from this group? (Response order randomized. Link for app users.)

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MLBTR Polls

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Top 75 MLB Trade Candidates At The All-Star Break

By Jeff Todd and Steve Adams | July 18, 2018 at 7:10am CDT

This is the first update to our annual ranking of top trade candidates in the run-up to the trade deadline, drawing from our power ranking approach to pending free agents. You can check out the original list (and review the methodology) here. Essentially, we’re ordering players based upon our assessment of both their trade value and likelihood of being dealt.

One significant name is now off the board as we originally compiled it, as the Nationals landed Royals closer Kelvin Herrera. It has been fairly quiet on the trade front since, with the exception of the Red Sox’ acquisition of Steve Pearce, though plenty of other notable developments have occurred as well.

Here’s the updated ranking as we prepare for tonight’s All-Star Game:

1. Manny Machado, SS, Orioles (LR: 1): All indications are that Machado will be gone before play resumes after the All-Star break. While it will hurt to part with young talent to land a player who’ll reach the open market at season’s end, Machado promises to be a massive upgrade for whatever contender gets him.

2. Jeurys Familia, RP, Mets (LR: NR): At the time of the first iteration of this list, the Mets were still hanging around in the NL East. Not so much anymore. Familia is the best rental reliever available at this point. Though he may not quite be operating at peak capacity — his 12.0% swinging-strike and 50.5% groundball rates are down from his peak levels, though he’s throwing about as hard as usual — Familia carries a 2.88 ERA with 9.5 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 and has shown he’s healthy after an injury-and-suspension-marred 2017 season. He’s earning $7.9MM this year, a manageable enough sum for an established late-inning reliever, and was excellent during the Mets’ 2015 postseason run (though things didn’t go quite as well in the ensuing season’s Wild Card game).

3. Zach Britton, RP, Orioles (LR: INJ): The southpaw really didn’t figure to land this high on the list, but recent developments have knocked down other candidates and he seems to be working out the kinks, with improved results and increased velocity of late. There are also loads of reports on interest, so it’s all but certain he’ll be dealt. Britton is still just 15 games into his return from Achilles surgery, of course, and dealt with elbow/forearm troubles last year. But the Britton of old was one of the game’s best relievers and he has certainly shown some eyebrow-raising signs of late, including increasing fastball velocity and a swinging-strike rate that is up to 14.5% for the year. He’s earning a $12MM salary this year, which will also serve to impact his market and the O’s potential return.

4. Wilson Ramos, C, Rays (LR: 6): While the Rays are playing well, the postseason outlook remains bleak and Ramos is a high-performing, highly compensated player. With some clear potential demand behind the dish for multiple contending organizations, a trade seems inevitable. Unfortunately, Ramos is also now dealing with a hamstring injury of unknown severity. We’ll keep him on the list despite the likelihood of a coming DL placement, since the length of said DL stint isn’t known and he may be moved regardless, but it’s hardly great news given his history of leg issues.

5. Asdrubal Cabrera, INF, Mets (LR: NR): The switch-hitting Cabrera has been a consistently strong offensive producer since coming to the Mets. He’s showing more power than ever before at the moment, with 17 home runs and a .215 isolated slugging mark. Cabrera could be tasked with playing at second or third, though metrics have not smiled upon his glovework. With Jed Lowrie set to stay in Oakland, the Mets should receive some added interest in Cabrera.

6-10. J.A. Happ, Blue Jays; Cole Hamels, Rangers; Tyson Ross, Padres; Matt Harvey, Reds; Nathan Eovaldi, Rays, SP (LR: 3, 4, 7, 27, INJ): The market for pitching rentals has not looked stellar of late, to say the least. There are two rising pitchers here, Harvey and Eovaldi, but both come with long-term injury questions and their share of short-term performance inconsistencies. Since a brutal start to the season, Harvey’s velocity has stayed up, and he’s getting more and more whiffs with his slider. He has allowed just five earned runs over his past four starts, and while he’s hardly the ace he was early in his Mets career, he’s a near-lock to be traded in the next two weeks. Eovaldi is throwing about as hard as ever, getting more swings and misses than ever, and drawing grounders on about half of the balls put in play against him. He’s also continuing to exhibit the home run problems he had in 2016 and was just shelled (eight earned runs, one strikeout, 2 2/3 innings) in his most recent outing. Meanwhile, recent developments have not helped the value of Happ and Hamels, who we have discussed extensively in recent weeks. Both veteran southpaws entered the break with ERAs in the 4.3 range following three consecutive rough outings. Ross also had a pair of messy starts after carrying a 3.32 ERA through the end of June, with his velocity also trending down. But he showed much better against a tough Dodgers lineup in his most recent appearance. In all of these cases, contending teams will surely be watching the next few starts quite closely.

11. Mike Moustakas, Royals, 3B (LR: 5): Moustakas has been trending in the wrong direction since last we looked, but he’s a known commodity with good power and he remains a reasonably affordable option at the hot corner.

12. Joakim Soria, White Sox, RP (LR: 12): Soria recently saw an end to a string of 18-straight scoreless appearances. He’s earning $9MM this year, with a $1MM buyout on a 10MM mutual option for 2019. With a 2.75 ERA and 11.3 K/9 vs. 2.3 BB/9 on the year — buttressed by a career-high 14.7% swinging-strike rate — Soria looks to be quite a worthwhile target.

13-15. Brad Hand, Padres; Raisel Iglesias, Reds; Felipe Vazquez, Pirates, RP (LR: 8, 9, NR): Vazquez joins the list as the Bucs have faded. This trio represents the field of conceivably available, controllable, high-quality closers. There’s no real reason to think that these hurlers’ respective teams are particularly inclined to deal them, but the deadline is often an optimal time to move relievers and it’s generally easier to imagine one of these pitchers changing hands than a similarly affordable/controllable starter or position player.

16. J.T. Realmuto, C, Marlins (LR: 10): If the Marlins were more clearly interested in continuing their sell-off, Realmuto would rank higher — probably in the top two to three spots on this list. As it stands, the hints are that the 27-year-old won’t be dealt barring an overwhelming return. Will another team step up? Thee possibility of adding Realmuto down the stretch, and for two more affordable seasons, is awfully tantalizing after watching him race out to a .310/.365/.536 slash with a dozen home runs in 303 plate appearances to open the season.

17. Jacob deGrom, SP, Mets (LR: NR): The star righty is firing on all cylinders right now. His two future seasons of arb control are immensely valuable to the Mets, but most of the other top starters that could conceivably be dealt have even more cheap years of control remaining. If a contender is going to line up a monumental offer for a starter, deGrom seems like the clear target. While the likelihood of a deal still seems on the low side, the lack of top-end rental-starter talent should not be overlooked as a factor in driving interest. Given deGrom’s sheer excellence for a lost Mets team, he warrants a fairly lofty spot on this list.

18-21. Eduardo Escobar, INF; Brian Dozier, 2B; Fernando Rodney, RP; Zach Duke, RP, Twins (LR: NR): This group of trade chips may not quite yet be available, given that a nice run has put the Twins back within plausible striking distance in the AL Central. That’s not to say, though, that the organization isn’t readying for a sale, in which case all could well be on the move. Escobar can play short, but hasn’t really been trusted there much of late. He is, however, doing more than ever before with the bat. The same can’t be said of Dozier, but he is starting to turn things on and is a productive all-around player even if he’s not hitting at the levels he did in the prior two campaigns. As for Rodney, the experience has been a good one thus far for Minnesota, which signed him to a $4.5MM deal that also includes some incentives and a 2019 option. Though he’s not a pure rental, the 41-year-old figures to be as available as any other Twins relievers. In 34 1/3 innings this year, the closer-for-hire — he has appeared with nine teams in his career and recorded saves for eight of them — owns a 3.12 ERA with 10.1 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9. Meanwhile, Duke has reversed a tough 2017 showing and then some. He has dominated lefties and turned in passable-enough results against righties. Overall, he’s back to producing good strikeout rates (9.3 per nine) with excellent groundball rates (59.4%). Plus, he’s earning just $2.15MM this year plus some reasonably priced appearance-based incentives.

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22-27. Kirby Yates, Padres; Nate Jones, White Sox; Kyle Barraclough, Marlins; Shane Greene, Tigers; Mychal Givens, Orioles; Keone Kela, Rangers, RHP (LR: 21-26): Controllable relievers, anyone? All six of these arms can be controlled cheaply through at least the 2020 season, though some seem likelier to move than others. Yates is a natural candidate to be dealt after adopting a splitter that has turned into a wipeout pitch for him at age 31. Jones has battled injuries over the past three seasons, which could mitigate some trade interest, but none of his three club options are more expensive than $6MM. Barraclough and Givens probably have the steepest price tags of the bunch, as neither Miami nor Baltimore is keen on dealing them with three and a half years of control left. Greene recently returned from a minor DL stint and may not be at peak value. Kela has had some ups and downs with the organization, and the Rangers are set on selling off some pieces to restock the farm this summer, even if they’re not necessarily embarking on a full-scale rebuild.

28-30. Zack Wheeler, Mets; Jake Odorizzi, Twins; Mike Fiers, Tigers, SP (LR: NR, NR, 30): Wheeler has a 3.50 ERA with nearly a strikeout per inning and respectable control dating back to mid-May. He’s controlled through 2019, and while he comes with a lengthy injury history, he’s also earning just $1.9MM this season. A few of his more-prominent rotation mates would fetch better returns, of course, but Wheeler might be the most marketable Mets chip that has a truly realistic chance of being moved. Odorizzi is missing bats again, and he’s controlled through 2019, which should generally hold some appeal. But his walk rate is up a bit, he’s inducing fewer grounders than ever before, and homers look like they’ll always be a problem for him. He’s similar to Wheeler in that he’s a serviceable option with another year of control, but he’s more expensive at $6.4MM and doesn’t have that same type of value. Minnesota may still be able to get a bit more than it gave up to get him, though. As for Fiers, he has been on a solid run as his velocity has recovered over the course of the year. He’s not exactly exciting, but he’s a useful fourth starter who can thrive in a big park. The price tag shouldn’t be sky-high, as he’s earning $6MM and could be in line for a raise to $8MM+ in his final arb year.

31-38. Tyler Clippard, Seunghwan Oh, John Axford & Jake Petricka, Blue Jays; Sergio Romo, Rays; Brad Ziegler, Marlins; Brad Brach, Orioles; Jesse Chavez, Rangers, RP (LR: 31, 32, 33, NR, NR, NR, 11, 34): Teams looking to add solid veterans to their middle relief mix will have quite a few names to choose from. These are some of the most interesting rental arms. Since the start of June, Clippard has recorded 22 strikeouts against just one walk in 16 2/3 innings. And he’s getting gobs of infield flies (20.0%) once again. Oh has been getting it done all year long, with a 2.82 ERA and better than ten strikeouts per nine. Romo ended May with a 6.33 ERA. since, he has allowed three earned in 19 2/3 frames. Similarly, Ziegler carried a 7.88 ERA at the end of the day on June 1st and has allowed only a pair of earned runs in his most recent 21 frames. As for Brach, he has had a rough go of late but has been hurt by a .372 BABIP and is still generating a 13.4% swinging-strike rate. Though Chavez may not represent an exciting target, he’s showing well this year in a multi-inning role, with 56 1/3 innings of 3.51 ERA ball thus far for Texas.

39. Shin-Soo Choo, Rangers, OF/DH (LR: NR): Choo isn’t just having his best season with the Rangers, he’s having one of the best seasons of his career at the plate. He may be 36 years old now, but he’s mashing at a .293/.405/.506 clip with 18 homers already under his belt. (Worth noting: his previous season-high for dingers is just 22.) Choo is due the rest of this year’s $20MM salary plus $21MM in both 2019 and 2020, but trading him doesn’t look quite like the pipe dream it once was. The Rangers, of course, would still have to eat the majority of the money he’s owed. The major question here is whether a National League team will view Choo as a plausible target despite lacking the ability to utilize him as a DH. If not, there’ll be quite a limited group of potential suitors.

40-41. Jose Bautista, Mets; Curtis Granderson, Blue Jays, OF (LR: NR): The Mets were panned for their signing of Bautista, but he’s hitting .241/.399/.457 with five homers and 10 doubles in 188 PAs since joining up with them. Not much has gone right in Queens this season, but he’s been a nice surprise and could fetch a modest return from a team seeking a bench upgrade. As for the Grandy Man, the strikeouts are piling up a bit and he’s drawing poor grades for his baserunning and corner outfield glovework. He’s also riding a .326 BABIP that outpaces his career mark, but he’s hitting right-handed pitching well and still showing impressive pop.

42-44. Jake Diekman, Rangers; Jerry Blevins, Mets; Luis Avilan, LHP, White Sox, RP (LR: 38, NR, 36): Diekman’s longstanding walk problems have continued, though he has pared them back of late and owns an appealing 3.34 ERA overall. Surprisingly, he’s doing that while carrying rather drastic reverse platoon splits that have never before been apparent. Blevins also has had some struggles against lefties but has finally started racking up strikeouts again of late. It’s tough to know what to make of his season, though, which features a rather incredible turn from being a roughly average groundball pitcher to one that draws grounders only twenty percent of the time the ball is put in play against him. As for Avilan, he has held 58 opposing lefties to a cumulative .203/.263/.302 slash this year, so he’s a potential LOOGY target for the right organization. He’s also controllable for another season.

45-46. Adrian Beltre, 3B, Rangers; Adam Jones, OF, Orioles (LR: 16, 17): Neither player is really in top form with the bat, but both of these respected vets are still hitting at league-average rates. Their current teams can’t expect much in return given their hefty salaries ($18MM and $17MM, respectively), and full no-trade rights could also impact the outcome, but both should draw real interest from teams that want a boost on the field and in the clubhouse.

47-52. Michael Fulmer, Tigers; Noah Syndergaard, Mets; Dylan Bundy & Kevin Gausman, Orioles; Chris Archer, Rays; Jameson Taillon, Pirates, SP (49, NR): Miss out on deGrom but still want to get a talented, controllable starting pitcher? This list represents the slate of top candidates. The fact that they are all listed together here should not be read as an argument that they’re all on the same tier of talent. But they all share key attributes: low cost, multiple seasons of future control, and high established ceilings in the majors. The odds of any single one of these pitchers being dealt are fairly low, but there’s at least a reasonable chance that one member of this group ends up on the move.

53-55. Justin Smoak, 1B, Blue Jays; Nicholas Castellanos, OF, Tigers; Corey Dickerson, OF, Pirates (LR: 18, 20, NR): Anybody need a corner bat with another season of control? These are probably the most realistic targets out there. Smoak and Castellanos both featured on our original list and their situations remain about the same. That is: both are hitting quite well but neither seems particularly likely to be dealt. It’s not an altogether different situation for Dickerson, who has had a strange season. His power is down substantially from his time with the Rays and Rockies, but he’s also somehow managed to halve his strikeout rate. He’s also suddenly drawing terrific marks in left field after posting poor numbers there for most of his career. Dickerson doesn’t walk enough to be a big on-base threat, but he’s an above-average bat with another year of control remaining on a team that probably won’t want to pay him next season.

56. Derek Dietrich, INF/OF, Marlins (LR: NR): The Marlins can control Dietrich through 2020 — one more year than the others in this bunch — and he can play anywhere on the field besides center, shortstop and catcher. He’s not a particularly good defender at any of those spots, but Dietrich has long been a solid bat and is having his best year at the plate, hitting .286/.349/.450 with 11 homers. His $2.9MM salary is manageable for just about any team.

57-58. Scooter Gennett, 2B & Billy Hamilton, OF,Reds (LR: 14, 41): The 28-year-old Gennett has continued his remarkable breakout, and while there’s probably some degree of regression in store (.371 BABIP), his strikeout rate is down and he’s maintaining much of last year’s power spike. It sure doesn’t sound as if Gennett is going anywhere, but the Reds will have to listen to offers. As for Hamilton, he’s still a compelling presence on the bases and in the field, but carries only a 73 OPS+ on the season — right at his career level of production at the plate. That said, he has been on a hot streak of late. The speed demon is the likelier of these two to move — he’d be of particular interest as a late-season/postseason roster piece, after all — but is also the less valuable member of the pair.

59-62. Jordy Mercer, Pirates; Adeiny Hechavarria, Rays; Jose Iglesias, Tigers; Freddy Galvis, Padres, SS (LR: NR, INJ, 38, 39): Need a utility guy or a plug-in at short? These are the most-established, glove-first rental infielders on the market.

63-64. Devin Mesoraco, Mets & A.J. Ellis, Padres, C (LR: NR, 40): Or can I interest you in an extra backstop? Both of these vets could fit the bill. Mesoraco’s big contract means he’s an equally plausible August trade candidate. The 30-year-old has hit at a league-average rate in 44 games with the Mets.

65-67. Craig Stammen, Padres & Jared Hughes & David Hernandez, Reds (LR: 13, 47, 48): These relievers are all outproducing expectations on affordable, two-year deals. None have to be traded, but all would likely be available at the right price.

68-71. Yangervis Solarte, Blue Jays; Starlin Castro, Marlins; Wilmer Flores, Mets; Josh Harrison, Pirates, INF (LR: 19, 46, NR, NR): Evan as Solarte has faded after a strong start to the year, Castro entered the break on a tear. Flores won’t be viewed as an everyday guy but has been hitting quite well. This hasn’t been a great season for Harrison at the plate, but he’s valued for his defensive flexibility and quality baserunning.

72. Lance Lynn, SP, Twins (LR: NR): It just hasn’t turned out as hoped for the Twins or for Lynn, who’s earning $12MM before reentering the market this coming winter. He has, however, shown quite a bit more of late — even including a disastrous outing on July 1st. Over his past ten starts, Lynn has held opposing hitters to a .683 OPS and carried a 3.67 ERA through 54 frames. He’s also trending in the right direction in terms of velocity. Given his history of success, it stands to reason that some contending team will see the merits in adding Lynn for the stretch run, though in all likelihood the Twins will have to help pay down the deal.

73. Adam Conley, RP, Marlins (LR: NR): Conley is in something of his own category just because he’s still reemerging. The former starter has thrown 25 quality frames this year, with a big boost in velocity (95.5 mph fastball), swinging-strike rate (15.4%), and even first-strike rate (65.6%) as against his prior work from the MLB rotation. Because he didn’t ascend to the majors this year until late May, moreover, he’ll end the season with less than three full years of service (though he’ll qualify for Super Two status). While Miami can certainly choose to stand pat, it also may be an opportune time to deal a player who has had his ups and downs, particularly given the dearth of quality rental lefties this year.

74. Whit Merrifield, 2B, Royals (LR: 50): Merrifield can play all over and isn’t eligible for arbitration until after the 2019 season. He’s a player that doesn’t need to be traded, by any stretch, but could fetch a nice return if the right organization decides it has to have him.

75. Elvis Andrus, SS, Rangers (LR: INJ): It’s hard to know how to value Andrus, who has struggled since returning from a lengthy DL stint and has the ability to opt out of his contract either this coming winter or next. His contract includes $15MM annual salaries in 2019 and 2020, $14MM pay-outs for the two following years, and a $15MM vesting option for 2023.

Disabled List

Josh Donaldson (Blue Jays); Leonys Martin & Miguel Cabrera (Tigers); Avisail Garcia (White Sox); Tony Barnette, Chris Martin (Rangers); Darren O’Day (Orioles); Jay Bruce, Yoenis Cespedes, AJ Ramos (Mets); Francisco Cervelli & Sean Rodriguez (Pirates); Addison Reed, Twins

Also Considered

Starting Pitchers: Bartolo Colon & Doug Fister, Rangers (LR: 28-29); Marco Estrada & Jaime Garcia, Blue Jays; Francisco Liriano, Tigers; Ivan Nova, Pirates; Dan Straily, Marlins (LR: 43); Clayton Richard & Jordan Lyles, Padres (LR: 44-45); Mike Minor, Rangers; Steven Matz, Mets; Andrew Cashner & Alex Cobb, Orioles; Danny Duffy, Royals; Jordan Zimmermann, Tigers; Kyle Gibson, Twins; James Shields, White Sox

Relievers: Matt Andriese, Rays; Alex Wilson & Blaine Hardy, Tigers; Aaron Loup, Blue Jays (LR: 35); Seth Lugo & Anthony Swarzak, Mets; Drew Steckenrider, Marlins; Blake Parker, Jose Alvarez & Cam Bedrosian, Angels

Infielders: Jose Abreu, White Sox (LR: 15); Martin Prado, Marlins; Todd Frazier, Mets; David Freese, Pirates; Lucas Duda, Royals; Jurickson Profar, Rangers; Kendrys Morales, Blue Jays; Justin Bour, Marlins; Jonathan Schoop, Orioles; Danny Valencia, Orioles; Robinson Chirinos, Rangers;

Outfielders: Starling Marte & Gregory Polanco, Pirates; Scott Schebler & Adam Duvall, Reds; Mark Trumbo, Orioles; Cameron Maybin, Marlins; Carlos Gomez, Rays; Wil Myers, Manuel Margot, Hunter Renfroe & Travis Jankowski, Padres

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MLBTR Originals Top Ten Trade Deadline Candidates

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Dodgers, Orioles Reportedly In Agreement On Manny Machado Trade

By Jeff Todd | July 18, 2018 at 12:08am CDT

12:08am: Michael Duarte of NBC Sports L.A. tweets that right-handed pitching prospect Dustin May, long reported to be a target of the O’s, is expected to change hands in the deal. Double-A infielder/outfielder Errol Robinson is also believed to be included, per Duarte.

That said, Heyman casts doubt on the inclusion of May, tweeting that the Dodgers’ unwillingness to part with him was the driving factor for structuring a deal around Diaz.

11:22pm: Heyman tweets that the players in the deal are agreed upon, though there could yet be some medical reviews to be finalized. Notably, he suggests that there are “believed to be” five minor leaguers going to the Orioles, though obviously the quality of those five will vary. It’s still unclear who, outside of Diaz, is going to the Orioles in the deal, but Heyman adds that there’s no cash changing hands in the trade. That won’t yet put Los Angeles over the luxury tax line, however. Machado is owed about $6.45MM through season’s end, and the Dodgers were about $15MM south of the luxury tax line prior to this agreement.

9:15pm: Rosenthal tweets that Machado to the Dodgers is indeed happening. Diaz will go back to the Orioles as one of the pieces in the deal. It’s not yet clear which other players are involved or how much money (if any) the O’s are sending to the Dodgers along with Machado.

Meanwhile, MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko cautions that he hears a deal isn’t “done,” though that seems to be largely a matter of semantics. Kubatko notes that the All-Star Game has been a significant impediment to the deal’s completion. He adds that upon inquiring as to whether the deal could be completed tomorrow, one source replied: “It could have been tomorrow for the last 2 weeks.”

While any deal can unexpectedly crumble before it’s formally announced — Baltimore axed a deal that would’ve sent Zach Britton to the Astros at the last minute last July, for instance — the overwhelming consensus at this point seems to be that Machado will be a Dodger by the time the regular season resumes on Friday.

6:17pm: The Orioles’ return from the Dodgers is expected to consist only of prospects, Rosenthal further tweets. L.A. won’t send anyone from its Major League roster to the O’s barring a last-minute change. As such, if the Dodgers are going to move a big league asset such as Forsythe for luxury tax purposes, that’ll come in a separate trade, it seems.

5:08pm: Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweets that “several” other clubs who’ve been involved in the bidding are expecting the Dodgers to land Machado. The Dodgers are “increasingly likely” to acquire Machado, per Rosenthal. Andy McCullough of the L.A. Times, meanwhile, tweets that the Dodgers are believed to be close on a Machado deal.

4:16pm: Machado tells reporters that he has not heard anything today from either the Orioles or his agent regarding a trade (Twitter link via Bill Shaikin of the L.A. Times).

12:48pm: Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports that the Dodgers are the club with the framework of a deal in place. But the Philadelphia Inquirer’s Scott Lauber tweets that the Phillies are still “aggressively motivated” and optimistic of landing Machado.

11:10am: The Dodgers have indeed offered to include Diaz, Heyman tweets.

10:17am: Heyman provides a few more hints regarding the possible connection (Twitter links). One chip to keep an eye on is Dodgers outfielder Yusniel Diaz, he suggests. Working out the money may also mean that an expensive veteran player could head back to Baltimore in a potential deal, Heyman adds. On paper, at least, Logan Forsythe would seem the obvious player to utilize in that regard. Sending salary back to Baltimore would obviously mean that Los Angeles would need to sweeten the return.

8:05am: The Dodgers “appear to be the leading contender” to acquire Orioles infielder Manny Machado, according to Jon Heyman of Fancred (Twitter link). That said, there’s still no deal in place and Heyman adds that “the situation is fluid.”

As we’ve traced this key trade deadline story in recent weeks, multiple teams have emerged at one point or another as supposed “favorites” or “leaders” to add Machado. All along, we’ve also heard reporters caution that many clubs aren’t yet sure just when the O’s will make a decision. And with two weeks yet to go, it’s still plausible to imagine that they’ll continue to wait.

Thus, while Heyman says a “deal should be done this week,” he adds an important proviso (“barring turnabout”). And while this latest report indicates the Dodgers are homing in on Machado, it was reported late last night that the Phillies were surging into the lead by dangling one of their best pitching prospects.

Before that, the Brewers were reputedly part of a trio of leaders, and Heyman tweets that the Milwaukee organization remains a possibility. He adds that the Diamondbacks — another team once deemed the favorite by some — are also still on the periphery. And who could forget that, less than a week ago, we were learning of a surprise Yankees surge. Perhaps it should not surprise if other teams manage to vault back into the conversation, too.

There are plenty of ways to interpret all this, of course. It could be that the Dodgers are indeed lining up to get Machado. Or, maybe it’s the Phils that are doing so. Perhaps the Orioles really are preparing to strike a deal coming out of the All-Star break, a seemingly sensible approach that would avoid further injury risk. Or, it might be that the steady stream of horse racing metaphors is an indication that the Orioles are seeing how far they can push the bidding, comfortable in the knowledge that they can still move the finish line back a few more times.

From Machado’s perspective, as Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com writes, it’s hard to play through the “distractions.” The longtime O’s star says he wishes he knew more about where he might be headed, but adds that VP of baseball ops Dan Duquette “has been doing a really good job of trying to keep us informed as much as he can.” Machado also gave something of a preview of his anticipated approach to free agency this coming winter, saying he’ll be looking to figure out where he and his family will be “happy” rather than maximizing his earnings.

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Arizona Diamondbacks Baltimore Orioles Los Angeles Dodgers Milwaukee Brewers New York Yankees Philadelphia Phillies Transactions Dustin May Errol Robinson Manny Machado

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Red Sox Willing To Cross Highest Luxury Tax Threshold

By Steve Adams | July 17, 2018 at 7:38pm CDT

Though the past 12 months in Major League Baseball have been largely punctuated by big-market clubs performing financial gymnastics to avoid crossing the $197MM luxury tax barrier (e.g. Giants, Yankees, Dodgers), the Red Sox are of a different mindset. Boston, of course, has already exceeded the $197MM threshold — so much so that the team is already on the hook for an extra 12 percent surtax on every dollar spent over $217MM (plus 20 percent on everything north of $197MM). But Red Sox CEO Sam Kennedy tells Evan Drellich of NBC Sports Boston that the organization is willing, in the right scenario, for its luxury tax ledger to cross the $237MM mark that represents the most severe point of taxation.

As Drellich explains, the Sox are already in line to pay something in the vicinity of $10MM in luxury tax penalties based on their spending to date. The collective bargaining agreement, though, stipulates that a team exceeding the initial tax barrier by more than $40MM will not only pay a 42.5 percent surtax on every dollar spent beyond $237MM (in addition to the standard 20 percent), it’d also see its top pick in the following year’s draft pushed back 10 spots (provided that pick is not within the top six of the draft, which obviously will not be the case).

The Red Sox currently hold the best record in baseball, which should line them up to pick 33rd overall in 2019. (Normally, that’d be 30th overall, but the Braves, D-backs and Dodgers will all receive compensatory first-round selections after failing to sign their 2018 first-round draft choices.) By dropping from 33rd to 43rd in the draft, the Sox would not only have a less preferential pool from which to select a player, they’d also see their overall draft budget reduced accordingly. The difference in slot value between pick No. 33 and pick No. 43 in 2018 was $454,400 — not a massive sum, but one that would limit a team’s flexibility when trying to negotiate over-slot bonuses with mid-round picks. Nonetheless, Kennedy clearly states that the Sox aren’t closed off to the possibility.

“[T]here would be a willingness to do that if it meant, in our estimation, making a decision that could really help put us over the edge, over the top, this year and the postseason,” said Kennedy of crossing the $237MM line. “You know, we had the taste of October the last two years. There’s no question, we’re hungry for October success.”

Notably, Drellich writes that the Sox may ultimately consider adding a starting pitcher now that Eduardo Rodriguez’s ankle has been found to have “serious damage” following this past weekend’s injury. Left-hander Drew Pomeranz (biceps tendinitis) and right-hander Steven Wright (knee inflammation) are both on the shelf as well. Chris Sale, Rick Porcello and David Price still give the Sox a solid foundation on their starting staff, but with injuries mounting, a more pressing need than most would have anticipated just a few weeks ago certainly exists.

Boston also remains keen on adding a reliever, Drellich notes, as has been reported by various outlets over the past few weeks. Drellich suggests that Rodriguez could ultimately emerge as a bullpen option if the Sox want to ease him back into action late in the year, though president of baseball operations tells Drellich it is “much too early” to make any sort of determination as pertains to that possibility.

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Boston Red Sox Eduardo Rodriguez

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Indians Interested In Brad Hand

By Steve Adams | July 17, 2018 at 4:44pm CDT

The Indians are among the clubs with interest in Padres closer Brad Hand, tweets ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick. The Yankees and Cubs are among the other teams that have been previously linked to Hand in recent days.

Cleveland’s interest in Hand comes as little surprise. The 28-year-old left-hander has established himself as one of the game’s premier relievers over the past couple of seasons, and he’s signed to an affordable deal that guarantees him $6.5MM in 2019, $7MM in 2020 and has a $10MM club option for the 2021 season. The Indians, meanwhile, have surprisingly had one of the game’s absolute worst bullpens in 2018 and typically operate on a fairly tight budget, making Hand’s contract all the more appealing.

Of course, that contract and Hand’s excellence dating back to 2016 — 2.66 ERA, 11.8 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, 0.9 HR/9, 46.5 percent ground-ball rate in 213 innings — mean he’ll come with an especially steep price tag. The Indians have shown in the past that they’re willing to dip into their farm for significant upgrades at the deadline under the current front office structure, and a deal to bring Hand to Cleveland would bear similarity to the team’s 2016 acquisition of Andrew Miller from the Yankees (certainly in terms of significance and quite possibly in terms of price point). Cleveland sent vaunted prospects Clint Frazier and Justus Sheffield to the Yankees as part of that exchange.

It’s fair to expect that if the Indians have inquired about Hand, they’ve also spoken to the Padres about righties Kirby Yates and Craig Stammen — each former members of the Indians organization themselves. San Diego figures to be actively listening on all three, after all, and at least in terms of bullpen targets, the Indians have been most prominently connected to relievers they can control beyond 2018 so far. Cleveland is reportedly interested in Baltimore righty Mychal Givens, and the Indians have also been tied to Marlins relievers such as Kyle Barraclough, Drew Steckenrider and Adam Conley.

That said, given the fact that Cleveland relievers have been clobbered for a 5.28 ERA that ranks 29th in the Majors this season, the Indians will surely be exploring myriad options as they look to fortify the bullpen with an eye toward October baseball.

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Cleveland Guardians San Diego Padres Brad Hand

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All-Star Notes: Red Sox, Lowrie, Markakis, Abreu

By Jeff Todd | July 17, 2018 at 3:10pm CDT

While the focus this time of year is obviously on trade possibilities, the All-Star break also provides reporters an opportunity to ask players about their own long-term preferences. It’s not surprising, then, that we’ve seen a run of stories on players who won’t be traded away, but also aren’t under long-term control.

  • The Red Sox have certainly enjoyed an excellent opening run, led by excellent performances from a number of core players. It’d be a surprise to see any mid-season dealmaking, but the club might be expected to look into some new arrangements in the offseason to come. Closer Craig Kimbrel represents the most pressing situation, since he’ll be a free agent. As Christopher Smith of MassLive.com reports, Kimbrel says he and his family would “love to stay” but certainly indicated he’ll wait to see what the market bears. Though he only arrived a few months ago, slugger J.D. Martinez says he’d be open to exploring a new pact that might eliminate some of his opt-out opportunities, as he tells Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com. Of course, there’s plenty of time left before he’s scheduled to have a shot at returning to the open market (post-2019), and there’s reason to wonder whether the organization really would want to pay up to enhance its control rights. In between those two players in terms of contract situation is staff ace Chris Sale. Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe argues that, with one more option year left to go, the Boston organization ought to look into locking up the 29-year-old for the foreseeable future.
  • It seemed at one time that infielder Jed Lowrie would feature as a trade chip, but the surging Athletics obviously now have no plans to sell. Instead, attention has turned to the question whether he might end up returning to Oakland at season’s end. As John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle writes, Lowrie says the front office has “expressed interest this time” around — unlike the prior time his contract with the A’s was nearing an end. Lowrie, a first-time All-Star in his 11th MLB season, indicated that he’d be open to working something out to return for a sixth campaign in Oakland, though it’s not clear whether any effort at mid-season talks will be made.
  • It’s a similar story for Braves outfielder Nick Markakis, another respected veteran who finally earned an All-Star nod. As Gabriel Burns of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution writes, Markakis indicated he expects to keep playing after his contract runs out this fall — which is no surprise given his strong performance thus far. Whether that’ll take place in Atlanta or elsewhere, though, isn’t yet on his mind. “We’ll deal with that stuff in the offseason when the time comes,” says the veteran.
  • Those sorts of questions have long floated around White Sox first baseman Jose Abreu, who stands out as a quality veteran on a very youthful roster. As Steve Greenberg of the Chicago Sun-Times reports, Abreu says he hopes to have a chance to win before his time is up in Chicago. His focus is on “just trying to enjoy the moment with the team” at the moment, but the slugger also indicated that he’s at least open to spending more time on the South Side. “I’d like to stay with this team,” says Abreu. “And I’m going to do all in my power to make this team good as soon as possible.”
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Atlanta Braves Boston Red Sox Chicago White Sox Oakland Athletics Chris Sale Craig Kimbrel J.D. Martin J.D. Martinez Jed Lowrie Jose Abreu Nick Markakis

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MLBTR Chat Transcript

By Steve Adams | July 17, 2018 at 2:03pm CDT

Click here to read a transcript of today’s chat with MLBTR’s Steve Adams.

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Minor MLB Transactions: 7/17/18

By Jeff Todd | July 17, 2018 at 11:38am CDT

We’ll use this post to keep tabs on the latest minor moves …

  • The Dodgers have outrighted southpaw Edward Paredes after he cleared waivers, per the Pacific Coast League transactions page. Paredes, 31, has only thrown 16 career MLB innings but has struck out 14 of the 42 left-handed hitters that have stepped into the box against him. He has spent most of the present season at Triple-A, allowing just four earned runs in 18 innings while recording 24 strikeouts against 15 walks. Paredes was designated recently to make way for the waiver claim of Zac Rosscup.
  • Also listed among the PCL’s slate of recent transactions is an apparent minor-league pact between the Diamondbacks and righty Barry Enright. The 32-year-old spent 2017 in affiliated ball but has otherwise pitched in Mexico in the past several campaigns. Thus far in 2018, he has posted 78 innings of 3.35 ERA ball, with 7.8 K/9 against 1.7 BB/9, for the Mexican League’s Tigres de Quintana Roo.
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Arizona Diamondbacks Los Angeles Dodgers Transactions Barry Enright Edward Paredes

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Report: Orioles Working Through Medicals On Machado Deal

By Jeff Todd | July 17, 2018 at 9:40am CDT

The Orioles are “going through the medicals/paperwork” in an effort to finalize an agreement with an unknown team, per ESPN.com’s Buster Olney (Twitter link). While the “structure of a deal [is] in place,” Olney also stresses that “this in [sic] not finished yet.”

Despite the cautionary language, it’s obviously quite notable that the Baltimore organization has reached this point with another club. While numerous past arrangements have blown up at this stage — the O’s, especially, are notorious for finding health concerns — the exchange of medical information represents a significant step that would not take place without a clear path to a completed transaction.

Eduardo Encina of the Baltimore Sun had tweeted this morning that a deal was likely to be wrapped up by the end of the All-Star break. But it seems talks may be rather more advanced than that. It’d be quite a surprise, needless to say, if anything is finalized before Machado appears in his O’s uniform in today’s All-Star Game. But it now seems we’ll watch a fascinating trade situation unfold on a major stage for the game.

We heard last night that the Phillies were coming forward with a big offer. Then, it emerged this morning that the Dodgers appeared to be the favorite. Meanwhile, it seems the Yankees are largely bowing out of the process, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post.

That mix of reporting provides the most recent series of clues as to just where the Machado sweepstakes may be headed. It’s unclear which organization is best situated to land him, let alone for what package of players, but it now seems reasonable to expect that we’ll learn the answers to those questions in relatively short order.

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Baltimore Orioles Los Angeles Dodgers New York Yankees Philadelphia Phillies

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All-Star Roster Breakdown

By Jason Martinez | July 17, 2018 at 7:38am CDT

The 2018 All-Star teams are set and ready to face off today in Washington D.C. You can see the full rosters at Roster Resource (American League and National League), as well as a list of notable All-Star snubs.

Here is a breakdown of each All-Star roster, including the nine players who will not play due to injury or because they pitched on Sunday.

[Related: MLB Depth Charts]

AMERICAN LEAGUE (37)

  • HOW ACQUIRED
    • Homegrown (15)
    • Free Agency (9)
    • Trade (13)
  • OFFSEASON ACQUISITIONS (2)
    • J.D. Martinez, BOS (signed 5 year, $110MM contract in February)
    • Gerrit Cole, HOU (acquired from the Pirates in January)
  • 1st ROUND DRAFT PICKS (14)
  • AVERAGE AGE: 29.0
    • Youngest: Gleyber Torres, NYY (21.6)
    • Oldest: Nelson Cruz, SEA (38.0)
  • BIRTHPLACE
    • USA (21)
    • Dominican Republic (4)
    • Puerto Rico (4)
    • Venezuela (4)
    • Cuba (2)
    • Brazil (1)
    • South Korea (1)
  • SERVICE TIME (pre-2018)
    • Pre-Arbitration 0.000-2.122 (10)
    • Arbitration 2.123-5.171 (11)
    • Post-Arbitration 6.000+ (16)
  • MOST ALL-STARS (6)
    • Cleveland Indians, Houston Astros
  • MOST ALL-STAR SELECTIONS (7)
    • Craig Kimbrel, BOS
    • Chris Sale, BOS
    • Mike Trout, LAA
    • Justin Verlander, HOU
  • JULY TRADE CANDIDATES
    • Manny Machado, BAL
    • Jose Abreu, CWS
    • Wilson Ramos, TB
    • J.A. Happ, TOR

 

NATIONAL LEAGUE (36)

  • HOW ACQUIRED
    • Homegrown (18)
    • Free Agency (6)
    • Trade (9)
    • Waivers (3)
  • OFFSEASON ACQUISITIONS (4)
    • Matt Kemp, LAD (acquired from Braves in December)
    • Lorenzo Cain, MIL (signed 5 year, $80MM contract in January)
    • Christian Yelich, MIL (acquired from Marlins in January)
    • Miles Mikolas, STL (signed 2 yr, $15.5MM contract in December)
  • 1st ROUND DRAFT PICKS (12)
  • AVERAGE AGE: 29.5
    • Youngest: Ozzie Albies, ATL (21.5)
    • Oldest: Yadier Molina, STL (36.0)
  • BIRTHPLACE
    • USA (27)
    • Venezuela (4)
    • Curacao (2)
    • Puerto Rico (2)
    • Canada (1)
  • SERVICE TIME (pre-2018)
    • Pre-Arbitration 0.000-2.122 (9)
    • Arbitration 2.123-5.171 (14)
    • Post-Arbitration 6.000+ (13)
  • MOST ALL-STARS
    • Milwaukee Brewers (5)
  • MOST ALL-STAR SELECTIONS (9)
    • Yadier Molina, STL
  • JULY TRADE CANDIDATES
    • Scooter Gennett, CIN
    • J.T. Realmuto, MIA
    • Jacob deGrom, NYM
    • Felipe Vazquez, PIT
    • Brad Hand, SD

 

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