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Archives for June 2019

Grade The Cubs’ Signing Of Craig Kimbrel

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It took some time, but one of the game’s greatest relief pitchers finally found a home with the Cubs after shedding the draft compensation that attached when he turned down a qualifying offer from the Red Sox. The Boston organization won’t get a draft pick for letting Craig Kimbrel walk, and the Chicago club won’t have to part with one. The Cubbies will, however, pay Kimbrel $10MM for his services down the stretch and $32MM for two more campaigns (along with a $1MM buyout or $16MM vesting/club option for another).

On the one hand, it’s notable that Kimbrel was still able to secure a significant, multi-year guarantee at this stage of the season. On the other … well, this still feels light. Entering the offseason, following some late-season stumbles from Kimbrel, we predicted $70MM over four years. That was stepped down from what might have been anticipated entering the 2019 campaign; after all, Kimbrel’s 2018 effort was among his most dominant. There were risks, sure, but that’s why we guessed a four instead of a five-year pact.

Kimbrel isn’t going to pitch for the Cubs for the entirety of this season, so there’s a reduction in price there. Even accounting for that, this contract still falls shy of the one the Rockies gave Wade Davis in the 2017-18 offseason. That three-year, $52MM pact (with a fourth-year vesting/club option) seemed like an obvious floor for Kimbrel. After all, Davis was an older pitcher who couldn’t match Kimbrel’s levels of dominance. And the Davis contract was signed even though it cost the Rox a second-round draft choice.

While it’s certainly hard to fault Kimbrel for preferring the best-available multi-year arrangement at this stage, he’s probably leaving some upside on the table by taking that route now rather than going for a pure rental agreement. It’s also still a significant commitment for a Cubs team that declared itself out of money over the winter but found some in the interim (in some part through an unusual situation with an expensive veteran). This isn’t a risk-free transaction; far from it, particularly given Kimbrel’s most recent on-field showing and the fact that he’ll be ramping up in the middle of an ongoing season.

How do you grade the signing from the team’s perspective?

(Poll link for app users.)

Latest On Troy Tulowitzki

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The Yankees announced that veteran infielder Troy Tulowitzki has left the team’s spring facility, MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch reports (Twitter link). He’ll take some time at home to “get over that (injury) hump and kind of push through the finish line of getting exactly right,” manager Aaron Boone explains.

It’s frankly hard to interpret this development. Boone had declared just days ago that Tulowitzki was “pretty much over” the lingering calf injury that originally sent him to the injured list. (Also via Hoch, on Twitter.) It’s unclear when the 34-year-old will be deemed ready for a rehab assignment.

Slated to fill in for a rehabbing Didi Gregorius, Tulowitzki made it through only five games to open the season before his latest health issue arose. He missed all of 2018 after heel surgery and only made it into 66 contests in the prior campaign.

What is clear is that Tulo will not make it back to the MLB roster before Gregorius, whose return to action appears to be imminent. Barring any intervening developments on the injury front, the return of Gregorius will put the shortstop position off limits except for fill-in opportunities.

Tulowitzki has been seeing time at third base in anticipation of just that scenario. There could still be a fit there, but there still isn’t much of an opening even in the absence of Miguel Andujar. The surprising Gio Urshela continues to turn in impressive results at the hot corner and the club will want to keep finding regular action for Gleyber Torres and DJ LeMahieu. Even rookie fill-in Thairo Estrada has hit like a mid-prime Tulo to this point.

Under the circumstances, there’s no real rush from the Yankees’ perspective. It’s not clear at all that the organization has a use for Tulowitzki in the majors. But the Yanks certainly appreciate the value of depth, having both compiled and deployed it quite often this season. Tulowitzki is presently occupying a 40-man spot. While he could be shifted onto the 60-day IL, roster pressures will ultimately force a final determination on his status once he is back to health.

Quick Hits: Braves, Keuchel, Rangers, Calhoun, Yanks, Giants, Rays

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Reports have pegged the Braves as one of the favorites to sign free-agent left-hander Dallas Keuchel, but David O’Brien of The Athletic throws cold water on that possibility. The Braves have inquired about Keuchel and do have interest in him, per O’Brien, though he writes their interest has been “overstated.” Atlanta has not engaged in deep negotiations with Keuchel, O’Brien adds. The latest from O’Brien jibes with a Tuesday report from Joel Sherman of the New York Post, who wrote that the Braves are “uncomfortable” with the idea of paying Keuchel the prorated value of the $17.9MM qualifying offer (approximately $11.5MM).

  • Rangers outfielder Willie Calhoun landed on the 10-day IL on May 22 with a left quadriceps strain. It turns out the injury will likely keep him out of their lineup until at least late June, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News suggests. The 24-year-old Calhoun, a former top 100 prospect, was amid an encouraging season before he went to the IL. Not only did Calhoun hit .304/.416/.557 with eight home runs and more walks (22) than strikeouts (19) in 138 Triple-A plate appearances, but he got off to a .435/.458/.739 start with a pair of HRs in 24 major league PA.
  • The Yankees and Giants were among the many teams that showed interest in outfielder Harold Ramirez during his brief stay on the open market last offseason, according to Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald. The Blue Jays outrighted Ramirez on Nov. 20, and he ended up signing a minor league deal with the Marlins exactly a week later. The 24-year-old has since given the offensively challenged Marlins some much-needed production, having slashed .346/.386/.449 (128 wRC+) in 83 plate appearances.
  • Rays outfielder Tommy Pham has been out since May 30 with a strained right calf, but it appears he’ll avoid an IL stint. The club expects to plug Pham back into its lineup Thursday, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times relays. Pham’s enjoying his third straight prodigious campaign at the plate, with a .300/.414/.483 (145 wRC+) line, eight home runs and 38 walks against 43 strikeouts in 244 attempts.

Franmil Reyes Is On An Unusual Pace

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Just 146 games into his major league career, Padres right fielder Franmil Reyes has established himself as one of baseball’s most intimidating power threats. The 6-foot-5, 273-pound Reyes smashed 16 home runs during his 285-plate appearance debut a year ago and has totaled the league’s fourth-most HRs (19) this season. The 23-year-old’s on pace for 50 homers in his first full season in the majors, but that alone isn’t the hardest-to-believe fact about his campaign to date.

With a .247/.294/.577 slash line through 211 plate appearances this season, the 23-year-old Reyes has chipped in a strong 122 wRC+ for the playoff-contending Padres. The lone massively underwhelming figure in Reyes’ line is his on-base percentage, which ties for 17th worst among 166 qualified MLB batters. It also helps set the stage for what could go down as a historic season for Reyes.

Based on research at FanGraphs going all the way back to 1871, no hitter has ever accumulated at least 40 home runs and reached base under 30 percent of the time in a season. Former Red Sox outfielder Tony Armas came the closest during a 1984 campaign in which he swatted 43 HRs and recorded an even .300 OBP in 679 PA. Thirty-five years later, Reyes may put forth a similarly powerful season with even less on-base ability.

Just over two months into the season, Reyes has recorded the game’s 26th-highest strikeout rate (27 percent). That’s not awful for someone with Reyes’ high-power skill set; on the other hand, his 6.6 walk percentage leaves plenty to be desired – especially for someone who’s not blessed with much speed. The fact that Reyes isn’t, say, Rhys Hoskins when it comes to drawing bases on balls has helped stop him from becoming a far bigger force at the plate. That aside, the right-handed Reyes has offered above-average production against righty and lefty pitchers alike, and he has registered solid numbers in his home park and elsewhere.

Reyes, who unsurprisingly elevates the ball more than most hitters, ranks 16th in the game in exit velocity on fly balls and line drives (97.9 mph), per Statcast, which credits him with an even higher expected weighted on-base average (.390) than actual wOBA (.365). It also awards Reyes a respectable .283 expected batting average which, along with a paltry .244 BABIP, indicates he hasn’t encountered good batted-ball fortune in 2019. If that turns around at all, it’ll push Reyes’ OBP over the .300 barrier by season’s end and prevent him from making somewhat dubious history.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Latest On Andrelton Simmons, Justin Upton

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Angels star shortstop Andrelton Simmons has been out two weeks because of a Grade 3 ankle sprain, and it doesn’t appear he’ll be back anytime soon. While Simmons has progressed to swinging a bat, there is still no timetable for a comeback, Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com tweets. Meanwhile, Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register points out the type of sprain Simmons is dealing with tends to require an eight- to 12-week absence. If that holds up, Simmons won’t grace the Angels’ lineup again until at least late July.

The 29-32 Angels have gone 7-7 without Simmons, a defensive virtuoso and solid hitter who exceeded the 5.0-fWAR mark in each of the previous two seasons. Simmons added 1.2 fWAR to his career ledger in 195 pre-injury plate appearances this year, batting .298/.323/.415 (100 wRC+) with three home runs and five steals on six attempts. Along the way, the 29-year-old posted the majors’ third-lowest strikeout rate (7.7 percent, trailing only teammates David Fletcher and Tommy La Stella) and third-highest in-zone contact percentage (98.0). Simmons, Fletcher and La Stella are among many Angels who have been almost incapable of striking out this year, which explains why the Halos own the majors’ best K rate as a team (16.3 percent).

The Simmons-less Angels have mostly deployed Fletcher at short, La Stella at third and Luis Rengifo. Assuming Fletcher and La Stella continue to perform well, they seem likely to divide their time between third and second once Simmons comes back. However, a return from injuried infielder Zack Cozart could complicate matters.

The infield’s not the only place where the Angels’ lineup is battling injuries. They’re also without big-hitting left fielder Justin Upton, who hasn’t played this season on account of sprained toe. The 31-year-old is progressing toward a rehab assignment, though, according to Jeff Fletcher. While Upton produced another quality offensive campaign in 2018 – his first full season with the Angels – David Fletcher, Brian Goodwin and Cesar Puello have done well in his stead this year.

Can Avisail Garcia Continue To Out-Mash The Competition?

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Avisail Garcia is destroying much of what he’s being thrown by Major League pitchers. After striding to the plate 208 times, he has an even .300 batting average, 11 dingers, and a healthy 138 wRC+.  That’s awfully good value for the Rays, who paid him all of $3.5MM for one season of work.

There’s a reason they got Garcia for that amount: his substandard, injury-filled 2018 season, at the end of which he was non-tendered by the White Sox. It really didn’t come as a surprise when the South Siders cut bait and the Tampa Bay org picked up Garcia for less than half his projected arbitration salary.

The past is the past, so far as the Rays are concerned. What matters right now is that Garcia is seeing red and putting his contract in the black. But what happens when he returns to the open market this coming winter? We’ve still got a lot of plate appearances to watch, but what if he keeps up something like his current pace?

It isn’t as if he hasn’t done it before. Back in 2017, Garcia carried a .330/.380/.506 slash over 561 plate appearances — good for a 137 wRC+ that’s a near match for his current output. Then again, he leaned on a whopping .392 batting average on balls in play to reach that number, which plummeted back to .271 in the ensuing season while he tried to play through a hamstring injury. And he had posted underwhelming numbers previously. Garcia doesn’t stand out at all in terms of plate discipline, with roughly average strikeout numbers (despite huge swinging-strike rates) and slightly below-average walk rates for his career.

When he’s hot, he’s hot … not/not. Is that all there is to it? Should teams be wary of putting too much stock in his current upswing? Perhaps. The K/BB numbers are in line with his personal mean. There were some lean years in the past. Then again, it’s not as if there aren’t any changes worthy of attention in Garcia’s profile.

Statcast has picked up on quite a few interesting observations. Garcia is putting the barrel on the ball more than about nine in ten of his peers. He carries a healthy and career-best 46.5% hard-hit rate. His average exit velo is up to 91.4 mph after sitting just over 90 for the prior three seasons. Put it together, and Statcast actually thinks Garcia has been unlucky, crediting him with a .392 xwOBA that exceeds his .379 wOBA.

Garcia is doing things a bit differently than in the past. He’s putting the ball in the air more often than ever, with a launch angle that sits at 11.1 degrees after a third-straight year-over-year gain. His 1.24 GB/FB rate is by far the lowest of his career. (The leaguewide reduction in sinkers is likely playing a role, as Garcia is suddenly seeing half as many as he had before.) The flies are flying quite nicely, too. Just 2.0% are harmlessly dropping into infielders’ gloves, while 20+% are going over the outfield wall (about the same rate as they did for him last year).

There’s no question: Garcia is an increasingly interesting upcoming free agent asset. Garcia is enjoying a lofty .346 BABIP, but that’s not an outlandish number — particularly for a player who owns a .331 career mark. He’s even trending up defensively (+3 DRS, +3.4 UZR) and on the bases (six steals). With 1.6 fWAR in the bank, he’s on pace for a ~5 WAR campaign.

And we saved one of the best parts for last: Garcia hasn’t even turned 28 years of age. Okay, he’s just a week away from his birthday. Still, teams pondering a purchase this coming winter will get to plug a 28-year-old slugger onto their 2020 Opening Day roster.

What’s most interesting about Garcia’s free agent case is the presence of three other remarkably similar players: Marcell Ozuna of the Cardinals, Yasiel Puig of the Reds, and Nicholas Castellanos of the Tigers. Their numbers obviously vary a bit, but over the past three seasons they have landed within a fairly narrow band.

All four are right-handed hitters with roughly league-average plate discipline (Ozuna and Puig are the best of the trio in K/BB) and good but not exceptional power (Garcia sits just under .200 ISO, the other three just over). Most carry high batting averages (excepting Puig, though he has done so in the past) and well-regarded corner outfield glovework (Castellanos is the exception, though he has graded as a palatable performer this year). They’re also all rather youthful free agents; Castellanos is the youngest, having just turned 27 in March, with Ozuna and Puig already past their 28th birthdays. All have had their ups and downs.

There’s more to consider than the past three seasons — Ozuna, in particular, has a much better and more consistent overall track record — but Garcia lines up rather well on a rate basis in that span. And he has handily outperformed the other three in the present season, with only Ozuna (121 wRC+) turning in above-average offensive output to this point.

In the latest iteration of MLBTR’s 2019-20 free agent power rankings, Ozuna placed third and Puig landed the tenth spot, while Castellanos drew an honorable mention. It’s plenty understandable that my wise and able boss, Tim Dierkes, mentioned those three while excluding Garcia. At that point, Garcia carried a decent but uninspiring stat line. But as the sample has grown, so has Garcia’s case to be considered among this group. Indeed, given Puig’s struggles at the plate this seasons and a tepid early showing from Castellanos — with league-average offense and marginal defense, he’s a full win behind Garcia — it’s possible Garcia will be the top challenger to Ozuna in this market class.

We’ll see how things shake out over the coming months, but Garcia’s reemergence helps to create an interesting dynamic. The broader free agent class is rather uninspiring, owing to a round of major extensions, but it’s interesting to see this foursome of youthful, rather analogous players entering free agency at the same time. Each will drive his own earning power on the field over the final two-thirds of the season, though the markets will surely intertwine. Garcia has a long way to go to securing a quality multi-year deal — in addition to producing, he’ll need to avoid further hamstring problems — but he has already done enough to this point to make that a realistic possibility.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Draft Notes: Leiter, Mets, Allan, Cubs, Rutschman

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The Yankees called a familiar name with their 20th-round selection, drafting high school pitcher Jack Leiter.  The right-hander is the son of former Yankees pitcher and broadcaster Al Leiter, and is considered one of the top arms of the entire draft class.  Were it not for the younger Leiter’s commitment to attend Vanderbilt in the fall, he “would have gone [in the] top 10 picks, easy” a scout tells MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link).  (The consensus among pundits wasn’t quite that lofty, though he was seen as a high-end draft prospect.) It isn’t unusual for teams to take a flier of a pick on such prospects just to see if they could be enticed to begin their pro careers early, and despite the past ties between the Yankees and the Leiter family, both Baseball America’s J.J. Cooper and MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand believe Jack Leiter will indeed head to Vanderbilt.  Cooper doesn’t think the Yankees have the bonus pool budget available to offer Leiter anything close to his asking price to forego his college commitment, while Feinsand counters any suggestion of a possible wink-wink deal between Leiter and his dad’s old team by noting that the senior Leiter currently works for the Mets as an advisor in the baseball ops department.

As the draft officially comes to an end for another year, here’s more news and notes from the 2019 class…

  • The Mets selected high-school right-hander Matthew Allan with the 89th overall pick, an intriguing part of a strategy by the team to focus their efforts “into largely a three-player draft,” J.J. Cooper writes for Baseball America.  Allan is another of the draft’s top high-school arms, but reportedly wanted a $4MM bonus (greater than the slot price for all but the top 14 picks) to turn pro rather than attend the University of Florida.  The 89th overall pick only carries a $667.9K recommended price, though the Mets drafted all college seniors (who have less negotiating leverage) in rounds 4-10 to potentially carve out space in their bonus pool.  By saving money on those picks and perhaps even on first-rounder Brett Baty, the Mets could have enough to meet Allan’s price.  Matt Ehalt of Yahoo Sports also reports that Allan’s actual demand is “not near the $4MM that has been thrown out,” so the team could have even more breathing room.
  • The Cubs haven’t had much success in developing their own pitchers in recent years, and their pick of right-hander Ryan Jensen with the 27th overall selection represents how the team is adjusting its thinking in trying to solve this problem, MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian writes.  “Ryan Jensen certainly hits the nail on the head in terms of things that I’ve talked about that we probably avoided,” Cubs senior VP of player development and amateur scouting Jason McLeod told Bastian and other reporters.  Jensen has had mechanical issues during his time at Fresno State, and at only 6’0″ tall and 180 pounds, the righty doesn’t cut an imposing figure on the mound.  The young hurler had two important supporters, however, in Cubs area scout Gabe Zappi and pitching coordinator Brendan Sagara, plus McLeod was himself impressed watching one of Jensen’s starts in person on May 16.
  • Reports from the night prior to the draft suggested that the Orioles were still considering multiple options as the first overall pick, and GM Mike Elias indeed told reporters (including MLB.com’s Joe Trezza) that “the first four picks were all under significant discussion from us at one point or another.”  Rather than take Bobby Witt Jr., Andrew Vaughn, or JJ Bleday, the O’s instead stuck to expectations and chose top-rated prospect Adley Rutschman.  “There are pros and cons with every player profile and every player. We like to work our way through all of that and ultimately decided for the long-range benefit of the organization that this was the right pick,” Elias said.  It’s hard to argue with the choice, given that Rutschman was widely seen as the top talent available in this year’s class (and perhaps in many years).  Elias praised his new player as “a team leader on and off the field” and “a future fixture for this organization.”

Robinson Cano Re-Aggravates Quad Injury

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10:30pm: Cano indicated after the game this isn’t a serious ailment, saying (via Laura Albanese of Newsday): “[The injury is] not even close to what it was. I just have tightness. If it was the same feeling, I would have said it right away…They just wanted to be cautious.”

8:38pm: Mets second baseman Robinson Cano departed the team’s game against the Giants on Wednesday with a left quad problem, Deesha Thosar of the New York Daily News was among those to tweet. Cano suffered the injury while running down the first base line, as video from SNY shows.

This is especially noteworthy because Cano just returned from a left quad strain Wednesday. The 36-year-old went to the injured list May 23 with the issue, which ended up costing him 12 games. Before that, Cano – a much-hyped offseason acquisition for the Mets – got off to a slow start in his return to New York. The former Yankee and Mariner has slashed a career-worst .238/.384/.366 (76 wRC+) with three home runs in 183 plate appearances. That’s a far cry from the star-caliber production Cano has typically offered since his career began in 2006.

Another IL placement could now be in store for Cano, whom the Mets replaced with Adeiny Hechavarria on Wednesday. Excluding Cano, Hechavarria and Jeff McNeil are the only Mets who have started games at the keystone this season.

Rangers Likely To Call Up Joe Palumbo This Weekend

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It’s “likely” the Rangers will call up left-hander Joe Palumbo from Double-A Frisco to make his major league debut Saturday, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reports. Palumbo, who’s already on the Rangers’ 40-man roster, would serve as the 26th man in their doubleheader against the Athletics.

Palumbo is six years removed from joining the Rangers as a 30th-round pick in 2013. Since then, the 24-year-old has made an impressive climb up the Texas organization’s farm system. While Palumbo underwent Tommy John surgery in 2017, FanGraphs (No. 6), MLB.com (No. 7) and Baseball America (No. 8) each regard him as one of the Rangers’ 10 best prospects two years later. Kiley McDaniel and Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs laud Palumbo’s “timeless, rainbow curveball” and write he could develop into a No. 3-4 starter at the major league level.

So far in 2019, Palumbo has parlayed his fastball-curve-changeup mix into a 3.38 ERA/3.85 FIP with 11.55 K/9 and 4.26 BB/9 over 50 2/3 innings. It might be too optimistic to expect Palumbo to emerge as a capable big league starter right away – Grant notes he may only throw a few innings Saturday – but the need is there for playoff-contending Texas. The Rangers haven’t gotten anything out of offseason acquisition Drew Smyly, though they’re not yet willing to pull him from their starting five. However, if Palumbo shows well Saturday and Smyly’s struggles continue, the former could get a shot to join Texas’ rotation later in the season.

Theo Epstein Discusses Ben Zobrist

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The Cubs placed utility player Ben Zobrist on the restricted list May 8 because of a personal matter, though it wasn’t clear whether they were still paying him. Almost a month later, Zobrist still hasn’t returned to the Cubs, but we now know the 38-year-old hasn’t counted against their books in his absence.

With Zobrist on a $12MM salary in 2019, the last season of a four-year, $56MM contract, Chicago has saved just over $2MM since he left the team, per Steve Greenberg of the Chicago Sun-Times. The Cubs will continue to save the same amount for each month Zobrist spends on the restricted list, Greenberg notes.

There’s still no word on whether Zobrist will return this season, but president of baseball operations Theo Epstein spoke about him Wednesday, saying (via Greenberg): “He’s been communicative with us. We have an understanding of what’s going on with him.”

“Families and personal lives come first — that’s the rule we run our organization by,” continued Epstein, who added that Zobrist “[doesn’t] owe us anything.”

If we judge Zobrist solely by the on-field value he has provided during his run with the Cubs, he truly doesn’t owe the club anything. Although he got off to a subpar start this season before he went on the restricted list, Zobrist has been one of the Cubs’ most valuable players for a large portion of his tenure with the team. And if Zobrist never suits up for the Cubs again, he may have indirectly left them a parting gift in the form of all-time great closer Craig Kimbrel.

The Cubs were able to reach an agreement on a three-year, $43MM deal with Kimbrel on Wednesday, in part because they’re not paying Zobrist. Chicago shied away from big-money additions in the offseason because of luxury tax ramifications, but Zobrist’s exit – whether temporary or permanent – helped give the World Series hopefuls the necessary spending room to win the long-running Kimbrel sweepstakes.

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