Archives for July 2019

Poll: Shopping Trevor Bauer

By Connor Byrne | July 9, 2019 at 6:14pm CDT

MLBTR’s Jeff Todd asked an interesting question Tuesday morning: Should the Mets entertain trade offers for ace Jacob deGrom? To this point, the majority of voters believe they should at least listen to other teams’ proposals for the 31-year-old right-hander. As great as deGrom is, he’s probably not going to help pitch the woebegone Mets into the playoffs this season.

On the other hand, Indians righty Trevor Bauer may aid in a playoff berth for his team yet again in 2019. Nevertheless, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported Monday that the Indians are “aggressive listeners” on Bauer as the July 31 trade deadline approaches. There’s wide-ranging interest in Bauer, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post.

Cleveland, which happens to be hosting Tuesday’s All-Star Game, went on a tear to end the season’s first half. Winners of six straight, the Indians are 50-38 – good for the majors’ seventh-highest winning percentage (.568) – and have suddenly made the AL Central race intriguing. For a large portion of the first half, it looked as if the Twins would skate to a division title. Now, though, the Indians sit a manageable 5 1/2 games behind them. The Tribe’s also 1 1/2 games up on the AL’s second wild-card spot and a half-game behind the Rays for the league’s No. 5 seed.

An appreciable amount of the Indians’ success can be attributed to the 28-year-old Bauer, which would make trading him in the next three weeks all the more surprising. No, Bauer hasn’t been the ace-caliber performer he was a year ago. Still, though, Bauer has recorded a 3.61 ERA (granted, with a less inspiring 4.10 FIP) and 10.16 K/9 against 3.48 BB/9 over a major league-leading 132 innings.

It’s hard to believe the Indians would be able to trade Bauer and better themselves for this year, especially in light of the other concerns in their rotation. The Tribe’s starting staff looked like one of the league’s best entering the season. Since then, however, Corey Kluber has struggled and missed a vast amount of the campaign because of a fractured forearm. Mike Clevinger has made just five starts, over which he has been a mixed bag, because of a back injury. Worst of all, the team’s still reeling from the awful news that the excellent Carlos Carrasco, who hasn’t pitched since May 30, is battling leukemia.

The absences of Kluber and Carrasco have left Bauer, Clevinger and stellar young righty Shane Bieber as the lone truly dependable members of the Indians’ rotation. Fill-in Jefry Rodriguez has been on the injured list since June 1 with a strained shoulder, and rookie Zach Plesac has fallen off of late. Meantime, Adam Plutko has posted a below-average ERA (4.95) through 36 1/3 innings, and that outdoes even less shiny peripherals.

All of that said, Cleveland’s in an unenviable position with Bauer, whom it will probably lose soon even if it keeps him through the season. Bauer’s making a somewhat expensive $13MM and only controllable through 2020. If we’re to take his word for it, the offbeat Bauer will be trying to max out on one-year contracts every winter in free agency after that. Therefore, if the Indians weren’t in contention, now would clearly be the time for the Indians to flip Bauer. But the back-to-back-to-back AL Central champions are very much in the hunt right now, which could set the stage for an agonizing Bauer decision this month. What do you think they should do?

(Poll link for app users)

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Orioles’ Josh Lucas Accepts Outright Assignment

By Steve Adams | July 9, 2019 at 5:33pm CDT

Orioles righty Josh Lucas cleared waivers and has accepted an outright assignment to Triple-A Norfolk, per a team announcement. He was designated for assignment when Baltimore claimed former A’s righty Aaron Brooks off waivers. Brooks has now been formally added to Baltimore’s big league roster, the team also announced.

It’s the second time that Lucas, 28, has accepted an outright assignment with the Orioles this season rather than head out into free agency. In two stints with the big league club, Lucas has pitched to a 5.74 ERA. To his credit, Lucas has 16 strikeouts in 15 2/3 innings and has continually shown an ability to keep the ball on the ground at an above-average clip. He’s not a hard thrower, averaging 90-91 mph on his heater, but he’s nevertheless managed to be fairly stingy in terms of surrendering home runs throughout his minor league career.

In 114 career innings of Triple-A ball, Lucas has a 3.47 ERA with 8.7 K/9, 2.6 BB/9 and 0.5 HR/9. Given the patchwork state of the Orioles’ roster, it seems quite possible that another opportunity in the Majors could present itself later in the year (which undoubtedly factored into Lucas’ decision to accept the assignment).

Sabathia Interested In Front Office Role With Yankees Following Retirement

By Steve Adams | July 9, 2019 at 4:36pm CDT

CC Sabathia has already made clear that the 2019 campaign will be his final season as a Major Leaguer, but the likely Hall of Famer isn’t ready to step away from baseball entirely. In chatting with reporters today (Twitter links via Newsday’s Erik Boland and NJ.com’s Brendan Kuty), Sabathia revealed that he hopes to land a front office position with the Yankees after his playing days are complete.

“I definitely want to be around the Yankees for years to come,” said Sabathia. Kuty notes that Sabathia has been in general manager Brian Cashman’s ear about a potential special assistant role.

Sabathia would hardly be the only retired big leaguer to take such a position in a team’s front office. Within the past year and a half, the Yankees themselves have hired Carlos Beltran (link) and Andy Pettitte (link) as special advisors to the baseball operations department, for instance. Such roles are often fairly nebulous — at least so far as in duties that are specified to the public — and they typically aren’t full-time commitments. But it’s common for former players in such roles to serve as an instructor for the team and its minor leaguers during Spring Training, visit minor league affiliates throughout the season and in some instances weigh in on roster and/or player development matters.

The 38-year-old Sabathia’s final season has been a solid effort — one that has seen the big lefty cross some notable milestones along the way. In addition to tossing 76 2/3 innings of 4.03 ERA ball with 8.4 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9, Sabathia has collected his 250th Major League victory, recorded his 3,000th career strikeout and surpassed the 3500-inning mark at the MLB level.

AL Central Notes: Indians, Abreu, Allen

By Steve Adams | July 9, 2019 at 3:31pm CDT

The Indians never so much as made a contract offer to Michael Brantley before he inked a two-year, $32MM deal in Houston this offseason, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports within a broader look at the club’s struggles to retain top stars. Nightengale interviews both Brantley and CC Sabathia about their emotional departures from Cleveland as part of a piece that wonders whether Francisco Lindor’s eventual exit is anything less than a foregone conclusion. For his part, Lindor calls Cleveland “home” and adds that he hopes to stay before more vaguely stating: “When that time comes, we’ll decide.” Lindor’s long-term future has been particularly in question since Indians owner Paul Dolan ominously told fans to “enjoy him” while the team has him under control.

Indians fans will want to give the column a read not only for talk of Lindor’s future but also some heartfelt reminiscing from both Sabathia — “I cried like a baby when I was traded” — and Brantley. Both players offer nothing but fond memories of the city, the organization and the fanbase.

MLBPA Chief Tony Clark Discusses CBA, Juiced Ball

By Jeff Todd | July 9, 2019 at 1:08pm CDT

MLB Players Association executive director Tony Clark chatted with the media today as part of this week’s All-Star festivities. The Twitter feeds of Alex Speier of the Boston Globe and Eric Fisher of the Sports Business Group feature many of the key comments. Those interested in reading more about the labor situation should also read this interesting look at the efforts of Clark and other union leaders from Tyler Kepner and James Wagner of the New York Times.

Clark emphasized just now notable it was that the union and league have launched negotiations now, well in advance of the expiration of a collective bargaining agreement. He didn’t shy away from a lofty goal, stating: “We are interested in restoring meaningful free agency.”

The MLBPA is chasing other goals as well, including putting a stop to service time manipulation, increasing the marketing of players, and boosting compensation for young players that haven’t yet reached arbitration eligibility. On that last score, Clark says that “a young player needs to be fairly compensated for what he’s doing.”

As ever, the question remains just what alternatives can be proposed to create the desired outcomes. In part, MLB teams’ collective shift away from free agent spending is a reflection of the volume of young talent now rising to the majors. That speaks in favor of boosting pre-arb spending, but the capital side of the equation surely won’t boost the compensation of such players unless there are corresponding savings elsewhere.

Clark notes that the $555K league minimum is only that. “You can pay players more,” he says. “Teams are choosing not to.” But it isn’t clear why organizations would come forward with across-the-board raises for young players when there’s nothing compelling it. And it’s also fair at least to note that some teams have gone well over the minimum, especially for star players. That they have done so on an essentially ad hoc basis reflects the simple fact that the current CBA does not require more.

It still isn’t clear just what universal approach the players would like to accomplish, not that they necessarily want to put forth a complete vision at this stage. That’ll ultimately be necessary if Clark and co. want younger players to grab a bigger slice of the pie — or, perhaps, get the piece of the action that the owners seem to have taken away from free agency (not that they’d see it that way). Perhaps there are ways to find some extra cash to bring to the players’ coffers; Clark did note the ongoing influx of gambling money (and potential problems along with it).

On some level, though, the discussion will have to involve moving resources from one class of player to another. It’s at least somewhat curious, then, that Clark also indicated it was “not yet” necessary for a radical overhaul of the general arbitration and free-agent systems of compensation — a system that he has said previously “doesn’t work” in its current form. He did say that he has broached the concept of ending the amateur draft, which would assuredly represent a dramatic change in approach (albeit one that seems quite unlikely to gain traction and that might result in undesirable side effects).

Clark also addressed the matter of the increasingly regular long balls finding their way out of the field of play. He declined to subscribe to any particular conspiracy theories, but did say that he has clearly noticed the jump: “I believe the ball suddenly changed, and I don’t know why.”

That matter is not directly related to the labor situation, but it has loads of potential to impact the transactional market and is certainly a subject in which the union will take great interest. Given the strange degree of intrigue surrounding the MLB ball in recent years, perhaps it’s also a subject that the union can utilize for a smidgen of public relations leverage. And the rise in dingers may actually create some opportunities to shake up the labor market. The arbitration system, for instance, will struggle to react. It’ll take some creativity and foresight to take advantage (and avoid disadvantage) on the union side from disruption of this sort.

White Sox To Promote A.J. Reed

By Jeff Todd | July 9, 2019 at 12:17pm CDT

The White Sox will bring just-acquired first baseman A.J. Reed right onto their active roster, the young slugger tells Rick Semmler of Indiana’s WTHI (via Twitter). Reed had initially been assigned to Triple-A Charlotte but says he was informed he’ll meet the big league club in Oakland.

It’s not yet clear what the corresponding move will be for the Chicago organization, which snagged Reed from the Astros in a recent waiver claim. The White Sox were in need of another lefty bat after parting ways with Yonder Alonso, who struggled in brief action. Perhaps it’s unsurprising, then, that they’ll hand over an immediate opportunity to Reed.

The former second-round draft pick would obviously not have been freely available had he performed to expectations, but the White Sox can afford to have greater patience and perhaps offer a new perspective in attempting to draw out the long-evident talent. Now 26 years of age, Reed struggled in his only extended MLB action back in 2016.

While he has mostly performed well at Triple-A, Reed hasn’t forced his way onto a deep Houston roster and has clearly lost much of his prospect luster. This year has been a particular struggle, as he carries only a .224/.329/.469 slash line with a dozen long ball in 225 plate appearances at the highest level of the minors. In this booming offensive environment, that’s actually about ten percent below league-average productivity. Though he’s still walking at an even 12 percent clip, Reed has also gone down on strikes in nearly three of every ten trips to the dish.

Sonny Gray Reflects On Yankees Tenure

By Jeff Todd | July 9, 2019 at 11:33am CDT

Reds hurler Sonny Gray isn’t bitter about his tenure with the Yankees, but that doesn’t mean he’s in denial about his struggles there. As Ken Davidoff of the New York Post writes, the 29-year-old All-Star values his time in New York precisely because of the difficulties he faced.

Gray says his experience with the Yanks was “absolutely” a positive one, even though he ended up being left off the postseason roster on the heels of a brutal regular season (4.90 ERA in 130 1/3 innings).

“I think everyone kind of knows that New York wasn’t a great fit for me, place for me, last year,” says Gray. “It just didn’t seem to work out, for whatever reason. But looking back, I wouldn’t change one thing about it.”

Quite often, parting transactions leave at least one involved party with hard feelings. Not so here. Gray facilitated the three-team deal that delivered him to Cincinnati by agreeing to a three-year extension (plus option). That contract now appears to be quite an appealing one for the Reds, who also acquired lefty Reiver Sanmartin in the deal. But it also wasn’t a bad bit of security for Gray to achieve at the time, particularly given his wavering output in two of the three preceding seasons.

On the other side of the swap, the Yanks got some nice parting gifts. Outfielder Josh Stowers came aboard when the club shipped former Reds prospect Shed Long straight to the Mariners, who have already received big-league contributions from Long. And the New York organization just used the comp pick it received from the Cincinnati club to select southpaw TJ Sikkema. (The original deal to acquire Gray from the A’s also hasn’t stung the Bronx Bombers — not yet, at least.)

Gray says he’s stronger for the difficult experience. He certainly has bounced back with aplomb, slinging 90 1/3 innings of 3.59 ERA ball with 10.3 K/9 against 3.3 BB/9. By most metrics, he’s much the same pitcher as before. But Gray seems to be squeezing more out of his tools, inducing much less hard contact (33.9% after surrendering 39.5% last year, per Statcast) and generating a career-high 27.8% K rate despite continuing to sport similar swinging-strike marks.

MLBTR Poll: Should Mets Entertain Offers For Jacob deGrom?

By Jeff Todd | July 9, 2019 at 10:10am CDT

In an interesting examination, Joel Sherman of the New York Post makes the case that the Mets ought to take offers on ace Jacob deGrom. He doesn’t exactly advocate a swap — the club ought to move him only “if the return is so overwhelming that they can’t say no,” in Sherman’s estimation — but does suggest it’s a realistic possibility worth pursuing.

That’d be quite an about-face given that deGrom only just inked an extension with the New York organization over the offseason. It really doesn’t kick in until after the present season. Nominally a four-year, $120.5MM pact, the value of the extension was reduced significantly by deferrals.

That is a lot of coin for a pitcher who recently reached his 31st birthday, though deGrom is not just any hurler. He hasn’t been as dominant as he was last year, but that’s due mostly to regression in the home run department and a few shifts in sequencing fortune. Through 110 innings, he carries a 3.27 ERA with 11.3 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9. All the skills remain evident: deGrom has actually boosted his average fastball velocity to over 97 mph and is maintaining a swinging-strike rate in range of 15%.

There are some obvious barriers to a deal, as Sherman notes, beginning with Mets ownership. Even if the Wilpons are willing to authorize a franchise-altering swap, deGrom would have his say given his full no-trade rights.

That doesn’t mean it isn’t fascinating to consider the possibilities. At the moment, this year’s trade market is led by decidedly less-valuable hurlers such as Madison Bumgarner (who hasn’t lived up to his storied past of late), Marcus Stroman (often excellent but not consistently dominant), and deGrom’s teammate Zack Wheeler (ditto). deGrom is unquestionably one of the game’s very best pitchers; controlling him for four years at big but not eye-watering money would hold plenty of appeal.

There’s certainly some sense in the notion that the Mets ought to be willing to hit the re-set button. The offseason moves of new GM Brodie Van Wagenen have not hit the mark thus far; neither did those of his predecessor Sandy Alderson in the winter prior. Keeping deGrom while dealing only rental pieces would presumably mean a third-straight offseason re-tooling effort on the heels of a disappointing season.

On the other hand, the Mets would find themselves in a funny spot without deGrom. They still owe big money to players such as Yoenis Cespedes, Robinson Cano, Jed Lowrie, Wilson Ramos, and Jeurys Familia. They’ll be paying another arb raise to Noah Syndergaard, unless he’s also made available. (That would arguably make quite a bit of sense, whether or not deGrom is shopped; perhaps the underperforming Thor deserves his own poll.)

The situation obviously does not admit of straightforward solutions. How do you think the Mets should handle it? (Poll link for app users.)

Rob Manfred On Minor-League Pay Negotiations

By Jeff Todd | July 9, 2019 at 8:50am CDT

Yesterday, MLB commissioner Rob Manfred discussed the long-simmering issue of pay to minor-league players, as Evan Drellich of The Athletic reports (subscription link). Manfred’s office recently launched negotiations with the minor-league governing body known as the National Association of Professional Baseball Leagues.

MLB has fought tooth and nail to secure legal advantages against minor-league ballplayers, who remain without a union. While it battles to preserve its freedom of action, the league is also not unaware of the many problems posed by the current system, in which most minor-league players are dimly compensated for their labor. There’s always a risk of a reversal of legislative or court victories. And a concerted PR strategy from the players’ side could yet turn the tide.

While the ongoing talks with the NAPBL are voluntary, Manfred recognizes the practical need to address the matter. “The game’s about young players right now,” says the commissioner. Proper development of key player-assets requires a “positive environment,” which in turn means “you’ve got to have good facilities” and “you’ve got to pay correctly, and make sure you got the right people teaching.”

The imperative to “pay correctly” — an exceedingly interesting turn of phrase for the commish to introduce — is of chief interest to minor-league players. But there’s quite a bit more going on here. As Drellich well puts it, “Lurking in the background, and as a point of leverage, is the possibility that MLB seeks to cull some teams or otherwise reshape some aspects of the minors.” Hence the engagement with the NAPBL, which does not represent players but does have power over all other pertinent business matters that its big brother does not govern directly.

Manfred left little doubt that MLB owners aren’t just planning to open their pocketbooks. He cited a need “to look at the efficiency of the system” — for its own sake, perhaps, but also to “create[] some economic flexibility” that can be put to use in addressing the ballplayer salary issue. Beyond that, it seems mostly a question of whose profit margin will take the hit. As Manfred says, “Whether we pay or they pay, that’s a negotiation, right?”

Having won the early lobbying battle, organized baseball has earned itself time and space to structure a solution — albeit one that can still be subject to challenge. It’s still not clear what the league thinks it means to “pay correctly,” but the present approach seems unlikely to define that in the first instance by reference to concepts of fairness. Rather, what we are seeing now is an ownership effort (at both the major and minor-league levels) to arrive at an economically efficient solution that maximizes organizations’ investments in young players, staves off labor disruption, and assures the paying and voting public that all is well. Of course, the players will still have opportunities to influence the outcome, whether or not through the MLBPA or formal bargaining. It seems promising that MLB recognizes the need for change, even if the process isn’t ideal for labor. Whether the resulting system will be a fair one for pre-MLB ballplayers remains to be seen.

D-Backs CEO Derrick Hall On Deadline Plans

By Jeff Todd | July 9, 2019 at 6:51am CDT

Diamondbacks CEO Derrick Hall discussed his organization’s upcoming trade-deadline plans — or, really, the lack thereof — in an interesting recent chat with Zach Buchanan of The Athletic (subscription link). The whole thing is essential reading for the Arizona faithful, but we’ll examine a few key bits relating to the trade deadline.

Hall made clear, first and foremost, that the organization is entering the deadline period without a scripted approach. At the moment, it’s not clear what stance the Snakes will take. “[A] lot could be cleared up over the next few weeks,” he says, as the standings shift in the run-up to July 31st.

Just when and how that’ll be resolved remains to be seen. Intriguingly, Hall even seems to hint that he might rather see the current roster declare itself in one direction or the other more decisively. Per Hall: “We haven’t played great of late, and other teams have struggled as well, which has kept us in it, which is not necessarily a good thing for us.”

It’s not surprising to hear that the Arizona outfit will operate in a flexible manner. As Hall explains, that has been the modus operandi of GM Mike Hazen and his front office. “[O]ur guys, what they like to do is a little bit of both,” Hall said when asked what a sell-oriented deadline might look like, referring to the org’s twin pursuits of acquiring “pieces that can make an impact now” and “rebuilding that farm system.”

If there’s a broader takeaway from the chat, it probably lies in this line from Hall: “I don’t think Mike is in favor of a complete rebuild, and we’re in support of whatever direction he decides.” The organization clearly has placed quite a lot of trust in Hazen’s judgment. And it is obviously interested in maintaining consistent competitiveness while perhaps also achieving inflection points of real contention.

The D-Backs’ long-term vision carries echoes of successful, low-revenue clubs. After referring to the Paul Goldschmidt swap as “a deal that we really had to make,” Hall explained:

“That’s what [the front office is] always going to look to do, bring in young talent that can help the roster now. Even though you may be making moves that are moving some of your assets that we don’t have control over for a long time, you can still bring in individuals you will have that control over but who can impact the roster now.”

It’ll certainly be interesting to see how things play out this summer and beyond. Players such as Robbie Ray and David Peralta could deliver nice returns with one year of control remaining; veteran ace Zack Greinke might finally be dealt away to clear up the team’s books. It seems fair to assume that Hazen will have an open mind on those and other assets, but it’s tough to say at present which particular players will end up being discussed in earnest over the next three weeks.

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