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Assessing Scott Boras’ Offseason

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Regardless of whether you’re a fan of the outspoken Scott Boras, there is no denying he is one of the most successful and influential agents in the history of sports. Boras’ skill in landing mega-bucks for his clients has been on full display this offseason – a winter he entered representing seven players from MLBTR’s top 50 list of free agents. He has since secured a staggering $1,077,500,000 in guarantees for those clients. That figure trumps the predicted total of $842MM that we predicted for those players when free agency commenced.

Let’s check in on the work Boras did this winter for his biggest clients, including the three players who were the game’s highest-ranked free agents when the market opened…

Gerrit Cole, RHP, Yankees (MLBTR prediction: eight years, $256MM; actual contract: nine years, $324MM)

  • One year after Boras secured the richest contract ever for a free agent – Phillies outfielder Bryce Harper’s 13-year, $330MM pact – he almost surpassed it. In many ways, he did. Cole’s deal breezes past Harper’s in average annual value ($36MM), ranking first in baseball history in that category. And the 29-year-old Cole also owns the longest and largest contract a pitcher has ever signed.

Anthony Rendon, 3B, Angels (MLBTR prediction: seven years, $235MM; actual contract: seven years $245MM)

  • Nothing surprising about the value of this contract for Rendon, who was far and away the No. 1-ranked position player in this free-agent class. Among hitters, only new teammate Mike Trout ($35.5MM per year) earns more on an annual basis than Rendon’s $35MM.

Stephen Strasburg, RHP, Nationals (MLBTR prediction: six years, $180MM; actual contract: seven years, $245MM)

  • It wasn’t long ago there were questions as to whether Strasburg would opt out of the remaining four years and $100MM on his previous contract, making this payday especially impressive. Strasburg will turn 32 in June, and he owns a somewhat checkered injury history, yet the World Series MVP was still able to score $35MM per season. As they tend to do, the Nationals included deferrals in the deal (approximately $80MM), but those come with interest in this case, so they don’t impact the present-day value of the contract.

Hyun-Jin Ryu, LHP, Blue Jays (MLBTR prediction: three years, $54MM; actual contract: four years, $80MM)

  • On a per-inning basis, Ryu has been among the game’s premier pitchers last season, but he’s also a soon-to-be 33-year-old with a concerning injury history. But those factors didn’t stop Boras from crushing our Ryu projection and persuading a Toronto team that hasn’t finished .500 in a season since 2016 to splurge on the ex-Dodger.

Nick Castellanos, OF, Reds (MLBTR prediction: four years, $58MM; actual contract: four years, $64MM)

  • There’s nothing eye-opening about the value of Castellanos’ pact, though it’s arguably a surprise relative to the way his market unfolded. The big-hitting, fielding-challenged 27-year-old went unsigned until late January, after all, and he netted his deal shortly after a similarly valuable outfielder (the Braves’ Marcell Ozuna) signed for three fewer years and $46MM less. Moreover, Boras convinced the Reds to throw in opt-out clauses after each of the next two seasons, which will give Castellanos the power to return to free agency in the near future if he’s so inclined.

Mike Moustakas, 3B, Reds (MLBTR prediction: two years, $20MM; actual contract: four years, $64MM)

  • The other member of the Reds’ two-man $64MM club, Moustakas raked in more than triple what we forecast. That’s despite the fact that Moustakas entered this free-agency period coming off back-to-back offseasons in which he settled for relatively modest one-year guarantees. It’s also worth noting the 31-year-old wasn’t markedly more productive in 2019 than he was in either 2017 or ’18.

Dallas Keuchel, LHP, White Sox (MLBTR prediction: three years, $39MM; actual contract: three years, $55.5MM)

  • Boras and Keuchel aimed too high in free agency last year, which is why the former AL Cy Young winner wound up without a job until the Braves added him for a $13MM commitment in June. Keuchel, 32, was more decent than great as a Brave, but he still managed to smash our predicted total this winter and get the multi-season guarantee he couldn’t find a year ago.

MLBTR Poll: How Good Are The Astros?

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The Astros have been a juggernaut dating back to 2017, evidenced by their three 100-win efforts, two American League pennants and World Series title. However, thanks to the sign-stealing scandal from their championship-winning campaign, the Astros’ recent excellence has been sullied in the minds of many observers. Although the club’s the reigning AL champion, it’s now going into 2020 with plenty to prove on the field. It also has a new GM and manager, having parted with the eminently successful Jeff Luhnow-A.J. Hinch duo after MLB issued each of them one-year suspensions for their roles in Houston’s misdeeds.

With spring training closing in, the Astros moved quickly to replace Luhnow and Hinch after firing them in mid-January. They tabbed former Rays vice president of baseball operations James Click on Monday to take over for Luhnow in the wake of selecting veteran Dusty Baker as their new manager last week. Click’s coming over from an organization known for doing a lot with a little, but despite the chaos that has enveloped the Astros, he’s not walking into a franchise low on talent. The 70-year-old Baker, meanwhile, is a calming influence and a longtime winner whom the Astros hope will help them sail through stormy waters.

Of course, one of the knocks on Baker is that he has never helped guide a team to a title in his 22 seasons as a manager. Could that change in 2020? Perhaps, though he’s inheriting a roster that has taken some hits this offseason. There’s no more ace Gerrit Cole, who left for the hated Yankees for a record contract after two straight sterling seasons in Houston. There’s also no more standout reliever Will Harris, who became a National in free agency, or offensive-minded catcher Robinson Chirinos (now a member of the division-rival Rangers). And the Astros haven’t done anything remotely splashy via the trade or free-agent markets (the latter of which is all but devoid of impact players now) to cover for their key departures or strengthen other aspects of their roster.

While this has not been a banner winter for the Astros, they do still look to be contenders on paper. Last year’s all-world offense – one fronted by Alex Bregman, Yordan Alvarez, Jose Altuve, George Springer and Michael Brantley, among others – remains intact. Better still, the Astros could get full seasons from Alvarez (the 2019 AL Rookie of the Year whom they didn’t promote until almost halfway through June) and the Altuve-Springer-Carlos Correa trio after those stars were limited by injuries in the most recent campaign. And while Cole and now-Red Wade Miley are gone from their rotation, the Astros still boast an elite top two with reigning AL Cy Young winner Justin Verlander and Zack Greinke. They’ll also get Lance McCullers Jr. back from Tommy John surgery, though it’s up in the air how the rest of Houston’s starting staff will look once Opening Day arrives.

As nightmarish as this winter has been for the Astros, there’s no denying there’s plenty of talent still on hand. However, another 107-win season may be too much to ask – especially with their division having gotten stronger in recent months. The Athletics, a 97-win club twice in a row, look capable of challenging for the crown. Meantime, the Angels and Rangers appear to have made significant improvements after the pair stumbled to sub-.500 records a year ago. All that said, how do you expect the scandal-ridden Astros to fare this season?

(Poll link for app users)

Minor MLB Transactions: 2/3/20

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The latest minor moves from around baseball…

  • The Red Sox have outrighted hurler Denyi Reyes to Triple-A Pawtucket, per the International League transactions page. The club designated Reyes for assignment last week when it re-signed first baseman Mitch Moreland, but the right-hander will stay in the organization after clearing waivers. Reyes, 23, made his Double-A debut last season and pitched to a 4.16 ERA/3.69 FIP with 6.9 K/9 against 2.2 BB/9 over 151 1/3 innings and 26 appearances (all starts). When assessing Boston’s farm system in December, FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen and Kylie McDaniel wrote that Reyes could develop into an “emergency” starter type at the MLB level.

Astros Name James Click General Manager

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7:36pm: Click received a multi-year commitment from the Astros, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (Twitter link).

6:14pm: The Astros have decided upon James Click as their new general manager, per a club announcement. Click had served as Rays vice president of baseball operations.

Having already installed Dusty Baker as its new manager, the scandal-ridden Houston organization has now replaced its prior leadership team. Manager A.J. Hinch and GM Jeff Luhnow were suspended and fired for lack of oversight in the sign-stealing episode that clouded the team. Owner Jim Crane, who sat atop of those two in the organizational hierarchy but escaped censure or discipline, led a fast-moving hiring search.

Meanwhile, it’s another major departure for the Rays, who had touted a three-person baseball operations leadership team that included Erik Neander, Chaim Bloom, and Click. While Neander still commands the GM seat in Tampa Bay, he’ll now be doing battle rather than collaborating with Bloom (now the Red Sox chief baseball officer) and Click in the American League.

Click, a Yale grad, had been with the Rays since 2006. He entered the organization as a baseball ops coordinator, then touched most all the bases on his way up the food chain.

The team’s account of his most recent position reads as follows: “he is involved in all aspects of the baseball operations department with a focus on baseball research and development, baseball systems, clubhouse operations and departmental logistics.” Click had been tasked with an expanded role following the departure of Bloom. MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand spoke with Click last year on his podcast, if you’re interested in learning more.

Click seems sure to fit right into the Astros’ analytically oriented system after 14 years with the Rays. Crane explained that the organization “zeroed in” on Click after several interviews, noting that “he comes from a team that does a lot of things like we do.” Click simply “knew exactly what we were doing,” says Crane, and “felt he could add another dimension to it.” (Via Mark Berman of FOX 26; Twitter links.)

At the same time, Click will presumably be tasked with instilling discipline and establishing ethical guidelines for a baseball operations outfit that actively participated in the sign-stealing scheme. Commissioner Rob Manfred determined that, while Luhnow had not directed or specifically engaged in the malfeasance, he had created an “insular culture – one that valued and rewarded results over other considerations, combined with a staff of individuals who often lacked direction or sufficient oversight.” Though Crane disputed the findings of Manfred in that regard, and we can’t know how he’ll direct his new baseball operations leader, we may at least hope that Click will make a positive impact on the Houston baseball ops group.

There’ll obviously be a longer-term process for Click as he takes the helm in Houston. But he also faces an immediate challenge of preparing for Spring Training in just two weeks’ time. The Astros roster is loaded with talent and largely complete, depending upon one’s perspective (and Crane’s willingness to spend). But Click will no doubt have his own preferences on the margins, if not even some relatively larger thoughts on preparing for a season in which the Astros will again be among the favorites in the American League even in spite of their self-inflicted wounds.

Marlins Sign Matt Joyce

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FEBRUARY 3: Joyce will earn $1.5MM with another $250K in available incentives based upon plate appearances, MLBTR’s Steve Adams reports on Twitter.

JANUARY 30: Joyce’s deal is a Major League contract, Heyman tweets.

JANUARY 26: The Marlins have agreed to terms with free agent corner outfielder Matt Joyce, reports Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). He is represented by ACES. Terms of the deal remain unclear.

Matt Joyce | Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports

Joyce, 35, has had a series of up-and-down performances the past few seasons. A productive hitter for the Rays from 2010-14, Joyce was traded to the Angels prior to the 2015 season. He endured a miserable season in Anaheim before an offensive rebirth with the Pirates the following year. He continued that strong showing with the the A’s in 2017, where he amassed a career-high 544 plate appearances of .243/.335/.473 hitting (117 wRC+). After a down 2018 season in Oakland, though, Joyce was forced to settle for a pair of minor-league contracts last offseason.

The Giants, who signed Joyce to the second of those minor-league deals, traded him to Atlanta just before the start of the season. The Braves quickly selected him to their active roster, and they were rewarded with yet another bounceback year at the plate. In 238 plate appearances, Joyce put up a .295/.408/.450 line with seven home runs.

As that plate appearance figure suggests, Joyce was used judiciously by Braves’ manager Brian Snitker. He started just 34 games (thirty in right field, four in left). He was much more prominently used as a bench bat, pinch hitting 85 times. He wasn’t especially productive as a pinch hitter (and hasn’t been throughout his career), but he was stellar when trusted to start games.

Joyce is almost exclusively a platoon player. He has just a .188/.272/.309 career line against left-handed pitching, and he totaled all of 26 plate appearances against southpaws last season. He’s got a career .252/.354/.452 (122 wRC+) mark against right-handers and is coming off a season in which he was even better than that. Clearly, the Fish believe he can still serve as a quality hitter if put in the right role.

The Marlins’ corner outfield mix is promising but uncertain. Fellow free agent signee Corey Dickerson will surely get a long leash, but he’s coming off an injury-riddled 2019 season. Miami plans to move Jonathan Villar around the diamond. He’s also an option on the dirt and could speculatively be given a look in center, too, given his athleticism.

That likely leaves Garrett Cooper and Harold Ramírez as Joyce’s primary competition for at-bats. Both hit right-handed, making Joyce a potential platoon partner. (Both Cooper and Ramírez have been better without the platoon advantage to this point in their careers, although that tends to reverse itself over a larger sample size). Joyce has never played first base, but it’s at least possible (speculatively speaking) to imagine him occasionally spelling the right-handed Jesús Aguilar there as well. At the least, he figures to give manager Don Mattingly a deeper, more balanced bench as the Marlins continue to improve around the margins in hopes of being more competitive in 2020.

Diamondbacks Sign Jon Jay, Edwin Jackson

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The Diamondbacks have announced minor-league deals with outfielder Jon Jay and righty Edwin Jackson. The club also confirmed previously reported signings of John Hicks and Trayce Thompson.

All four veterans will be in MLB camp with the Snakes. It stands to reason that all will have some shot at earning a big-league job to open the season. The D-Backs will have a 26th roster spot to work with and could go in any number of directions to utilize it.

Jay, 34, is at his best a high-average hitter that can handle any outfield spot defensively. He’s looking for a bounceback after a rough 2019 season. While he swung a solidly above-average bat in his early days in the league, Jay has slashed just .271/.337/.348 since the start of the 2015 season. Jay would earn $1.5MM in the majors, with $1.75MM in possible incentives, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today (Twitter link).

The 36-year-old Jackson will regrettably not be competing in camp for a chance to extend his MLB record of pitching with 14 different organizations. He spent time with Arizona back in 2010. Jackson had a brutal 9.58 ERA in 67 2/3 big-league frames last year, but was able to spin 92 innings of 3.33 ERA ball in the season prior. The D-Backs won’t expect much, but can hope that Jackson represents rotation depth and perhaps a long relief option.

Marlins Designate Jarlin Garcia, Jose Quijada

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The Marlins announced today that they have designated southpaws Jarlin Garcia and Jose Quijada for assignment. Their roster spots will go to Brandon Kintzler and Matt Joyce, whose signings are now official (see here and here).

Young hurlers continue to fly off the Miami 40-man roster. The club vowed to compile a strike-throwing relief corps entering the 2020 season, but it remains surprising to see so many pitchers flowing out — most of them to this point landing on other MLB rosters via claim or trade.

Garcia, 27, is entering his final pre-arbitration season after working to a 3.02 ERA over 50 2/3 innings in 2019. He managed only 6.9 K/9 against 2.8 BB/9, but did post a 46.9% groundball rate and had success at preventing home runs (0.71 per nine, 7.8% HR/FB). Garcia was exceptionally difficult for MLB hitters to square up; he held them to a 31.8% hard-hit rate that sat in the 84th percentile among pitchers leaguewide.

The 24-year-old Quijada had struggled quite a bit last year in his first taste of the majors. He was bombed for a 5.76 ERA in 29 2/3 innings, allowing 10 long balls on a whopping 34.5% HR/FB rate. But Quijada also showed he could get MLB hitters to swing and miss, as he has in the upper minors, by producing a 14.0% swinging-strike rate.

East Notes: McNeil, Voit, Givens

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While we wait to learn more about a possible earth-shaking swap from the AL East — participate in our poll while there’s still time! — let’s check in on a few other storylines from the game’s eastern divisions.

  • Mets utilityman Jeff McNeil anticipates settling in a bit in 2020, as Deesha Thosar of the New York Daily News reports. It was largely evident just from looking at the New York roster situation, but McNeil confirms that he’s preparing to spend much of his time at the hot corner. “I think I’ll be playing a lot of third,” he said over the weekend. The 27-year-old says he’ll be a full go when camp opens. While a late-season wrist injury bothered him until late in 2019, McNeil says he’s over it now and has more or less had a normal offseason.
  • Speaking of winter recoveries, Yankees first baseman Luke Voit says he’s fitter than ever after undergoing core surgery, as George A. King III of the New York Post writes. That’s good news for him and for the club after Voit experienced a subpar, injury marred 2019 effort. He’ll need to prove in camp that he deserves a job. As King further explores, the club could lean on left-handed-hitting Mike Ford (perhaps in conjunction with Voit) and will also see how third baseman Miguel Andujar handles the other side of the infield.
  • It remains surprising that we haven’t heard more trade chatter this winter surrounding Orioles reliever Mychal Givens. That’s just fine with him. The 29-year-old says he’ll continue to “bleed black and orange” unless and until he is put into another uniform. With two full seasons to go until free agency, Givens is at the mercy of the team — except that his own performance is a major factor in his trade candidacy. Givens expressed optimism at his ability to bounce back from a rough showing last year; if he can do so, he could be a significant trade chip at the 2020 trade deadline. “Some great things have really been going on and are going to happen in the near future,” Givens says, “so hopefully I can stay here if I can. If not, it’s been a good road, but right now, like I said, I’m an Oriole.”

Mariners Designate Matt Festa For Assignment

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The Mariners announced Monday that they’ve designated right-hander Matt Festa for assignment. His spot on the 40-man roster will go to outfielder Jose Siri, whose previously reported waiver claim out of the Reds organization has now been formally announced by Seattle.

Festa, 27 next month, has pitched 30 2/3 innings of relief with the Mariners over the past two seasons, logging a 4.70 ERA with a 25-to-14 K/BB ratio and a 36.5 percent ground-ball rate along the way. Seattle initially selected him in the seventh round of the 2016 draft.

Festa has enjoyed solid numbers in Double-A and Triple-A, albeit in limited samples of work. The East Stroudsberg University product pitched to a 2.76 ERA with 12.3 K/9 against 2.2 BB/9 in 49 innings in 2018 before logging a 2.64 ERA, 9.7 K/9 and 4.1 BB/9 in 30 2/3 Triple-A frames in 2019. Festa doesn’t throw particularly hard (93 mph average four-seamer) and doesn’t have the type of gaudy spin rates that attract some clubs to pitchers who lack premium velocity. His success in the upper minors and the fact that he has a minor league option year remaining, however, could earn him a look with another club.

The Mariners will have a week to trade Festa, place him on outright waivers or release him.

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