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Reds Interested In Willy Adames, Dee Strange-Gordon

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With several of the top shortstops on the free agent and trade markets now off the board, the Reds are still looking for reliable veteran help at the position.  The Athletic’s C. Trent Rosecrans (subscription required) lists some of the names that might still be available for the Reds, including previously-reported trade target Amed Rosario of the Indians and two new names on the radar — the Rays’ Willy Adames and free agent Dee Strange-Gordon.

Cincinnati and Tampa Bay already discussed Adames in trade talks earlier this winter, Rosencrans writes, “but the Reds wanted to explore the free-agent market first.”  Since the likes of Didi Gregorius, Marcus Semien, and Andrelton Simmons have all signed elsewhere, it could be possible that the Reds will again circle back to inquire about Adames’ services.

Adames would represent a long-term answer for the Reds’ shortstop position, since he is only 25 years old and under team control through the 2024 season.  Originally acquired by the Rays from the Tigers as part of the David Price trade in 2014, Adames has emerged as Tampa’s everyday choice at shortstop, showing gradual improvement at both the plate and in the field.

Over 2393 1/3 innings as a Major League shortstop, Adames has +9 Defensive Runs Saved, though other metrics like Outs Above Average and UZR/150 rank his glovework as subpar.  He has also produced at least league-average run production or better over 1112 plate appearances, hitting .262/.329/.426 for his career with 38 home runs (105 OPS+, 106 wRC+).

There are some red flags about Adames’ hitting, however.  Amidst an impressive .259/.332/.481 slash line over 205 PA last season, Adames’ .341 wOBA far outpaced his .295 xwOBA, and his 36.1% strikeout rate was one of the worst in baseball.  While Adames has gradually improved his hard-hit ball percentages over his three MLB seasons, he is still only middle-of-the-pack in the category.

These could be reasons why the Rays are open to moving a player with Adames’ talent and contractual control, not to mention the fact that Wander Franco is waiting in the wings as Tampa’s shortstop of the future.  In the event of an Adames trade, Joey Wendle could take over shortstop until Franco is ready to be promoted, which might not be until at least midway through the 2021 season considering that Franco has yet to even play Double-A ball.

Landing Adames might cost the Reds a significant trade package, however, and a case could be made that Cincinnati might not necessarily want a long-term player at the position, given how many star shortstops will be available in the 2021-22 free agent market.  (While the Reds are clearly working with a limited budget this offseason, their financial picture could be different next winter, post-pandemic.)  If this is the case, the Reds might just look for a one-year answer like Strange-Gordon, who could act as a stopgap so Cincy could either prepare to add a star free agent next winter, or allow more time for Jose Garcia to develop as the in-house candidate as the shortstop of the future.

“The Reds have at least checked in on Strange-Gordon,” according to Rosecrans, following a dismal season that saw the veteran hit only .200/.268/.213 over 82 PA for the Mariners.  It was the worst of a rough three-year stretch in Seattle for Strange-Gordon, and the Mariners unsurprisingly declined their $14MM club option on his services for the 2021 season.

The 32-year-old began his MLB career as a shortstop with the Dodgers but has only played a handful of games at short over the last four seasons, making him something of an imperfect fit as an everyday option.  It could be that the Reds might just use Strange-Gordon as something of a utilityman, giving him some time at shortstop but also rotating Garcia and the newly-acquired Kyle Holder at the position.

Cubs To Sign Trevor Williams

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The Cubs have agreed to a one-year, Major League deal with right-hander Trevor Williams, Evan Altman of Cubs Insider reports (Twitter link).  The contract will become official once Williams passes a physical.  Williams will earn roughly $2.5MM, according to MLB Network’s Jon Heyman, and Altman notes that some portion of Williams’ salary is likely to be deferred.

After spending all five of his MLB seasons in a Pirates uniform, Williams will remain in the NL Central and now look to win a job at the back of Chicago’s rotation.  Kyle Hendricks, Zach Davies, Adbert Alzolay, and Alec Mills are lined up for the first four starting spots, though only Hendricks and Davies truly have their spots locked up.  Kohl Stewart was also recently signed to a big league contract, Shelby Miller to a minors deal, and at least one more arm is on the way, as ESPN’s Jesse Rogers tweets that the Cubs are expected more pitching before Spring Training opens.

Williams opted to become a free agent rather than accept an outright assignment from the Pirates back in November, with the Bucs’ move essentially acting as an early non-tender — Williams was projected to earn between $3.2MM and $4.6MM in his second year of arbitration eligibility, and the Cubs control him through 2022 via that third arbitration year.  The righty received a fair amount of interest on the open market despite some rough numbers in 2020.

Williams posted a 6.18 ERA and only a 19.4 strikeout percentage (ranking in the 25th percentile of all pitchers) over 55 1/3 innings.  The home run problems that plagued Williams in 2019 worsened last season, as he allowed a league-high 15 homers.  Both the home run increase and a marked uptick in hard contact allowed has led to struggles for Williams since the start of the 2019 season.

During the 2017-18 seasons, however, Williams looked like a durable young pitcher on the rise, as he had a 3.56 ERA over 321 innings in Pittsburgh’s rotation.  Williams kept hitters off-balance despite a lack of a blazing fastball or big strikeout numbers, though since his SIERA was over a run higher than his 3.56 ERA, there might have been some good fortune involved.

Williams (who turns 29 in April) does have a solid track record when it comes to eating innings, which will certainly be valuable on a Cubs staff that may be juggling multiple arms at the back of the rotation.  Alzolay, Mills, and Stewart have only 215 1/3 combined big league innings on their resume.

Reds Acquire Kyle Holder

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The Reds are acquiring shortstop Kyle Holder in a trade with the Phillies, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports (Twitter link).  Both teams have officially announced the trade, with cash considerations heading to the Phillies in return.  The move will free up a space on Philadelphia’s 40-man roster, so the Phils’ signing of Didi Gregorius could soon be officially announced.

The Yankees selected Holder with the 30th overall pick of the 2015 draft, and he proceeded to hit .264/.317/.350 over 1744 PA in New York’s farm system.  Holder then moved to the Phillies as a selection in December’s Rule 5 Draft, and as per Rule 5 stipulations, Holder will now have to remain on Cincinnati’s active roster for the entire season, or else the Reds will have to offer him back to the Yankees.

With Gregorius back in the fold, Holder was an expendable part in Philadelphia, but he could potentially play a larger role for the Reds.  Given Cincinnati’s lack of shortstop depth, in fact, Holder might even be in line for some action in the starting lineup, unless the Reds add a more established infielder between now and Opening Day.  To that end, MLB.com’s Jon Heyman tweets that the Reds are still hoping to acquire Amed Rosario from the Indians, after reports linked Cincinnati to Rosario earlier this week.

While Holder hasn’t hit much in the minors and he has yet to play even Triple-A ball, he is a well-regarded defender whose glove may already be big league-caliber.  Holder has played mostly shortstop in the minors but has also seen time at second and third base, so he could serve as a valuable utility asset on the Reds’ bench.

Rangers To Sign Sam Gaviglio

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The Rangers are in agreement with Sam Gaviglio on a minor-league contract, reports MLBTR’s Steve Adams (Twitter link). He’ll receive an invitation to major league spring training.

Gaviglio has seen big league action in each of the past four seasons, mostly as a member of the Blue Jays. Primarily a starting pitcher early in his MLB career, the right-hander has worked exclusively out of the bullpen the past two seasons. Gaviglio has never been much of a strikeout arm but he throws strikes and has induced ground balls at a decent clip. Altogether, the 30-year-old has tossed 296.2 innings of 4.88 ERA/4.37 SIERA ball at the highest level.

There’s plenty of room for Gaviglio to earn his way onto the Rangers’ active roster with a strong showing in spring training, especially if the club sees him as a potential starting option. Kolby Allard, the current favorite for the final spot in the rotation, was knocked around for an 8.80 ERA last year. Texas’ bullpen composition is also uncertain beyond the top four of Jonathan Hernández, Joely Rodríguez, José Leclerc and Taylor Hearn.

Free Agency Notes: Braves, Turner, Folty, Jays, Red Sox

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The Braves are one of the teams that have checked in on free-agent third baseman Justin Turner, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network. It’s unclear whether the Braves are among the reported four finalists for Turner, whom the Dodgers, Blue Jays and Brewers have also courted. Turner, 36, spent 2014-20 as a Dodger and was one of the majors’ most valuable third basemen in that span. There’s a clear need at the position for the Braves, who received awful production there from Austin Riley, Adeiny Hechavarría and Johan Camargo in 2020. They’ve done nothing to upgrade the spot this winter.

  • Free agent right-hander Mike Foltynewicz held a showcase for interested teams Friday, Heyman reports. Foltynewicz threw between 90 and 92 mph, which checks in well below the 95.5 mph average he posted in Atlanta from 2014-20. The Braves cut Foltynewicz from their 40-man roster last July after he put up terrible results in his lone outing and averaged less than 91 mph on his fastball. But he does own a 4.33 ERA/4.26 SIERA in 686 big league innings, so there’s reason to expect a bounce-back effort in the future. The Cubs were one of the teams at his showcase, Bruce Levine of 670 The Score tweets.
  • The Blue Jays are looking to continue their active offseason by adding another pitcher, reports Robert Murray of FanSided. That could take the form of a high-leverage reliever or an additional starter. Among the players under consideration, per Murray, is right-handed reliever Trevor Rosenthal. The hard-throwing Rosenthal had a fantastic rebound campaign in 2020, tossing 23.2 innings of 1.90 ERA/2.31 SIERA ball with the Royals and Padres.
  • The Red Sox have interest in reuniting with corner infielder Travis Shaw and right-handed reliever Brandon Workman, Rob Bradford of WEEI.com and Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com report. Shaw was last with the Red Sox in 2016, after which they traded him to the Brewers. He was a member of the Blue Jays in 2020, and though Shaw was a solid hitter earlier in his career, he has been less productive of late. The 30-year-old slashed .239/.306/.411 in 180 plate appearances with the Blue Jays last season. As for Workman, he has spent most of his career with the Red Sox, but they dealt him to the Phillies prior to last year’s trade deadline. Workman was excellent at times in Boston bullpen in parts of 2013-19, but he could only muster a 5.95 ERA in 19 2/3 innings between the two clubs a year ago.

Athletics Acquire Cole Irvin From Phillies

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1:17 pm: Both teams have announced the trade. Oakland’s 40-man roster is now full.

11:00 am: The Athletics are picking up left-hander Cole Irvin in exchange for cash considerations in a deal with the Phillies, reports Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link). Irvin’s departure will clear a spot on the 40-man roster for Matt Moore, who agreed to terms on a one-year deal earlier this week. Another move will need to be made to accommodate Didi Gregorius’ addition to the roster once his two-year deal is finalized.

Irvin, 27 tomorrow, has picked up nineteen MLB appearances (three starts) over the past two seasons. Across 45.2 innings, he has a 6.75 ERA/4.87 SIERA. He doesn’t miss many bats; his 17.2% strikeout rate is well below the league average of 23.4%. However, Irvin compiled a long track record of throwing strikes in the minors and has continued to do so at the highest level, walking only 6.9% of opposing hitters as a big leaguer.

The southpaw twice ranked among Baseball America’s top thirty prospects in the Phillies’ system. He still has a minor-league option remaining, meaning the A’s can shuffle him between the majors and Triple-A Las Vegas if he survives the offseason on the 40-man roster.

Mets Sign Aaron Loup

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JANUARY 30: Loup’s deal, which the Mets have now made official, also includes $250K in potential incentives based on appearances, reports Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). The Mets’ 40-man roster is now full.

JANUARY 28: Loup’s contract would guarantee him around $3MM once finalized, reports SNY’s Andy Martino (Twitter link).

JANUARY 27: The Mets and left-handed reliever Aaron Loup are in agreement on a deal, pending the completion of a physical, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports (via Twitter). It’s a one-year deal for Loup, Joel Sherman of the New York Post adds. MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo reported earlier this afternoon that the Mets were “zeroing in” on Loup after missing out on Brad Hand, who signed with the division-rival Nationals. Loup is represented by the Beverly Hills Sports Council.

Loup, 33, gives the Mets an established left-handed bullpen option that the roster previous lacked. Waiver claim Stephen Tarpley and former 40th-round pick Daniel Zamora were the only two southpaws on the Mets’ 40-man roster prior to their forthcoming agreement with Loup. Veteran southpaw Jerry Blevins will be in Spring Training as a non-roster invitee as well, though he didn’t pitch at all last season.

Outside of a forearm strain that wiped out a good chunk of his 2019 season in San Diego, Loup has been a largely durable and reasonably effective bullpen piece since breaking into the Majors with the Blue Jays back in 2012. He’s had some ups and downs along the way, but the end result is a 3.38 ERA and 3.24 SIERA with career strikeout and walk rates of 21.9 percent and 7.0 percent. Loup has upped his strikeout numbers over the past few years, however, and in 2020 with the Rays delivered one of his best stretches: a 2.52 ERA and 3.62 SIERA with a 22.9 percent punchout rate and a 4.2 percent walk rate that ranked among the game’s lowest. He also tossed 5 1/3 innings in the playoffs, allowing just two runs with seven strikeouts against two walks.

Loup has been better against lefties throughout his big league career but has held his own against righties and was quite good against them in 2020’s shortened slate of games. He’s held opposing lefties to a career .232/.301/.319 batting line while righties have managed a .264/.333/.428 output.

Loup will join right-hander Trevor May as a new member of the Mets’ setup core, effectively replacing fellow free-agent lefty Justin Wilson in the process. The Mets could perhaps still use another lefty, but with a relief corps featuring May, Loup, Edwin Diaz, Seth Lugo, Dellin Betances, Jeurys Familia, Miguel Castro and Brad Brach, they’re certainly not light on talent. Some of those veterans — Betances and Familia in particular — are in search of rebound efforts, but everyone in that veteran group has enjoyed a good bit of big league success.

White Sox Re-Sign Carlos Rodon

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The White Sox are in agreement with free agent left-hander Carlos Rodón, reports Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link). The deal is pending a physical. It’s a major league contract worth a guaranteed $3MM, reports Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter).

Rodón has spent his entire pro career in the organization, after the Sox selected him with the third overall pick in the 2014 draft out of North Carolina State. Early on, he looked well on his way to fulfilling that promise. Rodón was a fixture in the big league rotation by 2015 and looked the part of a solid mid-rotation starter over his first two seasons in MLB.

Things have gone off the rails since then, however. Rodón dealt with a series of arm injuries and struggled between stints on the injured list from 2017-19, culminating in a May 2019 Tommy John surgery. He returned to Chicago’s rotation to start the 2020 season but was shut back down after just two starts due to soreness in his throwing shoulder. Fortunately, Rodón did make it back to the mound for a pair of relief appearances at the end of last season. Working in short stints, he averaged nearly 96MPH on his fastball, a significant uptick from his typical low-90’s velocity as a starter.

In spite of that end-of-season flash of peak form, Chicago non-tendered Rodón rather than bring him back for a projected arbitration salary in the $4-5MM range. After a few months in free agency, he’ll return to the organization at a slightly cheaper price.

The 28-year-old will compete with Reynaldo López and Dylan Cease for a season-opening rotation spot behind Lucas Giolito, Lance Lynn and Dallas Keuchel, hears Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic. (Top prospect Michael Kopech is expected to start the season in the minors, per Rosenthal). Even if Rodón doesn’t win a rotation job, it’s easy to imagine him serving as a valuable, power lefty relief piece for new manager Tony La Russa.

Blue Jays Sign Marcus Semien

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JANUARY 30: The Blue Jays have announced the deal.

JANUARY 26: The Toronto Blue Jays continued their push to join the top tier of contenders in the American League today. The Jays reached an agreement to sign free agent shortstop Marcus Semien to a one-year, $18MM deal. In Semien, GM Ross Atkins lands a high-ceiling bat for 2021 and takes another significant piece off the board.

Semien became a star during his six seasons in Oakland, and yet, it wasn’t a clean, linear process. He began his career with the White Sox, but found himself headed to Oakland as part of the December 2014 Jeff Samardzija deal. For the next three seasons, Semien produced like a second-division starter, averaging 1.98 fWAR per 600 plate appearances. In 2018, the San Francisco native enjoyed a mini-breakout by cutting his strikeout rate from 22.0 percent to 18.6 percent and bumping his fWAR total to 3.9fWAR. Much of that hike in value, however, came on the defensive end.

His bat caught up in a major way the following season as Semien slashed .285/.369/.522 with a career-high 33 home runs, 13.7 percent strikeout rate, 10.6 percent walk rate, and 138 wRC+. While Semien’s 7.6 fWAR season earned him a third-place finish in AL MVP voting, it’s fair to question whether another hulk-out season is coming. He’s never been an All-Star (for what that’s worth), and outside of his galvanizing 2019 campaign, Semien hasn’t posted a wRC+ over 100. Even considering a down 2020, however, he has consistently been between 92 and 98 wRC+. Take that with the potential value he brings on defense, and even if Semien doesn’t re-emerge as an MVP candidate, Toronto has acquired a high-floor player with potential for more.

Defensively, his glovework has received mixed reviews: subpar numbers by Statcast’s Outs Above Average, but generally more positive scores (at least since 2018) by DRS and UZR. Regardless, moving to second base should secure his glove as a plus asset. For that matter, Semien’s willingness to play second base is a boon for the Blue Jays. They can now continue to flex star Bo Bichette at shortstop while moving Cavan Biggio across the diamond to third, as notes Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca (via Twitter).

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has notably been preparing himself for reps at third base, though he’s more to likely start most games at first. That foursome – Guerrero, Semien, Bichette, and Biggio – has the potential to form one of the most fearsome infield groups in the game – especially if their homegrown trio continues to grow into their vast potential.

This isn’t the first firework Toronto has lit this winter. Their lineup now features a well-fed George Springer, Kirby Yates and Tyler Chatwood will help the bullpen, and don’t forget that the offseason began with the Jays keeping Robbie Ray in their rotation. Even after the additions of Springer and Semien (plus Hyun Jin Ryu last winter), their luxury tax payroll is projected around $146MM. While that’s miles from the luxury tax line, it does represent a spending increase, both in terms of the luxury tax count and in real dollars, where their year-over-year payroll has jumped from approximately $118MM to $132MM.

In terms of value, the Jays did well to get a talent like Semien on a one-year deal. MLBTR predicted a one-year, $14MM contract for Semien, so he’ll make slightly more in total dollars than we expected. Seeing Andrelton Simmons sign for $7.5MM less might feel disheartening at first, but Semien has the higher ceiling, and if nothing else, Toronto maintains the long-term integrity of the plan to keep Bichette at short by adding Semien over Simmons. Toronto has infield prospects Jordan Groshans, Orelvis Martinez and Austin Martin who could be ready to join the lineup before long, and Bichette has as good a chance as any of them to stick at short.

At second, Semien should bolster their lineup on both sides of the ball while maintaining long-term flexibility. That kind of flexibility has, in some ways, surpassed even raw talent in terms of the value it holds for owners. Not to mention, with Freddy Galvis signing in Baltimore and Simmons in Minnesota, the pool of free agent shortstops is rapidly shrinking. Didi Gregorius is now the top option still available in free agency, with Jonathan Villar and Hanser Alberto behind him.

For Semien, he comes just a touch shy of what he would have made had the A’s extended a qualifying offer. Had Oakland extended the $18.9MM qualifying offer, they would have received a draft pick when Semien signed elsewhere, but they were wary of issuing a contract of that size, even on a one-year term. Semien now gets to re-enter free agency next year as part of the stacked class of free agent shortstops that may include Francisco Lindor, Trevor Story, Corey Seager, Carlos Correa, and Javier Baez.

MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter) first broke news of the deal, while ESPN’s Jeff Passan added the terms of the deal (via Twitter), and the Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal chimed in with Toronto’s defensive plans for Semien. Many have also noted that former All-Star second baseman Carlos Baerga broke this news earlier today on instagram. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Angels To Sign Junior Guerra To Minor-League Deal

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The Angels are signing right-hander Junior Guerra to a minor-league contract, per Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register (Twitter link). Presumably, the deal will include an invitation to MLB spring training.

After four seasons as a highly-utilized swingman in Milwaukee, Guerra signed with the Diamondbacks before the 2020 season. He pitched 23.2 innings of 3.04 ERA ball with Arizona, but his underlying numbers suggest he was rather fortunate to manage that level of run prevention. Guerra struck out just 20.4% of opposing hitters, significantly below the league average mark (24.1%) for relievers. He also walked a career-high 14.6% of batters faced, the thirteenth-highest rate among the 323 pitchers with at least 20 innings pitched last year. Wary of those mediocre peripherals, Arizona released Guerra rather than pay him an arbitration salary projected in the $2.8MM range.

There’s no harm for the Angels in bringing Guerra in on a non-roster deal to bolster the pitching depth. To his credit, the 36-year-old did induce plenty of ground balls last season. He also has ample experience working multiple innings out of the pen (and starting, although he’s exclusively been a reliever the past two seasons). Over his big league career, Guerra owns a 3.77 ERA/4.55 SIERA.

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