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The Rockies’ Top Trade Chip In A Potential Rebuild

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Once all of the details are ironed out and Nolan Arenado has been officially traded to the Cardinals, it’s possible that Rockies owner Dick Monfort and GM Jeff Bridich won’t mention the word “rebuild” when explaining the trade to fans and media.  It could be sold as a perfect storm of a superstar player’s displeasure with the front office coinciding with an unprecedented economic downturn, leading the Rox with no choice but to move Arenado despite the team’s full intention to contend in 2021.

But, let’s be real — the Rockies face a big uphill battle in the NL West.  The Dodgers and Padres are arguably the two best teams in baseball, the Giants are a looming threat considering all their available payroll space following the 2021 season, and even the Diamondbacks could be primed for a rebound considering they couldn’t seem to catch a break last year.  After two consecutive losing seasons and the impending loss of Arenado, Colorado seems like a prime candidate to blow things up.  Several trade candidates remain on the roster, each with some obstacle that could limit what the Rockies could receive back in terms of high-quality young talent.

Trevor Story’s name has been whispered in trade rumors all winter, but Story is only under contract through the 2021 season and many of the top contenders have already addressed their shortstop needs.  Charlie Blackmon’s bat wasn’t quite as potent in 2020 as in past years, and trade suitors may balk at the $52MM (in guaranteed money and in two years of player options) owed to Blackmon through the 2023 season.  Scott Oberg’s continued health issues make him a question mark going forward.  Kyle Freeland and Antonio Senzatela each have three years of team control remaining and would definitely get some trade attention, though neither pitcher has been consistent enough to merit a blue-chip return.

Assuming the Rockies don’t go totally scorched-earth with a rebuild and start shopping former top prospect Brendan Rodgers or current top prospect Zac Veen, that leaves one player who would instantly bring back a big trade package.  From an overall consideration of team control, financial cost, and Major League track record, German Marquez is not just the Rockies’ best trade chip, but one of the more intriguing trade chips in all of baseball.

Let’s begin with Marquez’s underrated statistical record, as only 14 pitchers have accumulated more fWAR than Marquez (12.2) over the last four seasons.  Marquez has a 4.21 ERA and an above-average 24.2K% and 17.8K-BB% over 613 2/3 innings since the start of the 2017 season.  He averaged 177 frames per year during the regulation-length 2017-19 campaigns, while tossing a league-high 81 2/3 innings in the abbreviated 2020 season.  One knock on Marquez is that he allows quite a bit of hard contact, but he has limited the damage thanks to an ability to keep the ball on the ground (47.6% career grounder rate).

These are solid numbers for any hurler, but particularly impressive for someone who pitches their home games at Coors Field.  As you might expect, Marquez has some pretty notable home/away splits — a 3.51 ERA in 341 1/3 road innings during his career, and a 5.10 ERA over 293 innings in Denver.  It is certainly possible that the right-hander could reach another level of performance if he didn’t pitch in such a hitter-friendly environment, which makes him all the more interesting for trade suitors.

Marquez is entering his age-26 season, and is already locked up through at least the 2023 season on a five-year, $43MM contract extension signed in April 2019.  $36MM remains owed to Marquez over the final three guaranteed years of that contract, which includes the $2.5MM buyout of a $16MM club option for 2024.  Less than two years later, the Marquez extension still looks like a very canny move from Bridich and company, if for not quite the reason they expected — this affordable price tag makes Marquez a fit for almost every contender in the league, pandemic-lowered revenues notwithstanding.

While Marquez hasn’t had a Cy Young Award-winning peak like Blake Snell, Marquez is over two years younger than Snell, has fewer injury concerns, and is owed less money than the $39MM Snell is scheduled to make through the 2023 season.  By that token, Colorado is certainly within its rights to ask for a trade return similar to what the Rays received for dealing Snell to the Padres this offseason.  An enterprising team with some payroll space to spare could also sweeten the pot by offering to take some more money off the Rockies’ hands — perhaps the last $11MM remaining on Ian Desmond’s contract, in terms of salary, the buyout of his 2022 club option, and his $1MM assignment bonus in the event of a trade.

It remains to be seen if the Rockies will start a full-fledged rebuild immediately once Arenado is gone, or perhaps if the team will take the rebuild route whatsoever.  There’s a ticking clock on a Story considering his lack of remaining control, but the Rockies might not be in a particular rush to move Marquez quite yet since he is still signed through 2023.  The argument can be made, however, that Marquez will never be as valuable as he is right now, so if the Rockies did want to start looking to the future, the time is now to maximize their return.

Free Agent Notes: Mets, Williams, Folty, Arrieta, Twins, Rosenthal

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The Mets have already put a lot of focus on their rotation this winter, between retaining Marcus Stroman via the qualifying offer and adding Carlos Carrasco and Joey Lucchesi in trades.  While Trevor Bauer’s name continues to loom over Citi Field, the Mets are also continuing to explore other hurlers.  According to Russell Dorsey of the Chicago Sun-Times (via Twitter), New York had interest in right-hander Trevor Williams before Williams signed with the Cubs.  The Mets were also among the teams present to watch Mike Foltynewicz during his recent throwing session, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports (via Twitter).

With Steven Matz recently dealt to the Blue Jays, the Mets’ projected starting four looks like Jacob deGrom, Carrasco, Stroman, and David Peterson.  Lucchesi probably has the inside line on the fifth starter job for now, but the Mets aren’t short on other depth options in the upper minors, and Foltynewicz would provide another experienced candidate to either compete for a rotation spot or perhaps fit into the bullpen.  Since Noah Syndergaard is expected to make a midseason return from Tommy John rehab, whomever fills the fifth starter role is ultimately keeping the seat warm for Syndergaard — barring the shake-up of a Bauer signing, that is.

More on some other free agent news…

  • Aside from the Mets, Foltynewicz also drew interest from the Rays, White Sox, and Twins, Heyman writes.  An All-Star with the Braves in 2018, Foltynewicz took a step back in 2019 and then pitched in only one game in 2020, resulting in his opting for free agency after being outrighted during the season.  Given these recent struggles, “Folty” would very likely have to pitch his way into a rotation spot during Spring Training, yet it is easy to see why teams would have interest in the right-hander as a change of scenery candidate.  The White Sox just re-signed Carlos Rodon, though considering Rodon has also had a tough time over the last two seasons, his presence wouldn’t necessarily rule out a potential deal between Foltynewicz and the Sox.
  • The Cubs had interest in Jake Arrieta but a signing is “doubtful,” ESPN.com’s Jesse Rogers tweets, since the Cubs want a less-expensive option.  Arrieta’s asking price can’t be all that high considering his middling results over the last two seasons, but perhaps the $2.5MM (with deferred money involved) the Cubs gave Williams is a better example of what the team is willing to spend.
  • Trevor Rosenthal is the top reliever remaining on MLBTR’s list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents, and since the Twins are known to be looking for bullpen help, could the two sides link up?  The Athletic’s Dan Hayes isn’t very optimistic, as Rosenthal’s asking price looks to be too high for Minnesota’s liking.  The more money the Twins can save on relief pitching, the more they can then devote to a starting pitcher, but Hayes does think “they need relief certainty more than rotation certainty” at this point due to the rotation depth already on hand.

Royals Sign Hanser Alberto To Minor League Contract

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6:24PM: The Royals have officially announced the signing.

5:37PM: The Royals have signed infielder Hanser Alberto to a minor league deal, according to reporter Junior Matrille (Twitter link).  Alberto will earn $1.65MM in guaranteed salary if he makes Kansas City’s big league roster, with another $350K available in potential bonuses.

Alberto has spent the last two seasons as a regular in the Orioles’ lineup, splitting time at second base and third in 2019 and then settling in as the everyday second baseman in 2020.  Over 781 plate appearance since the start of the 2019 campaign, Alberto has hit .299/.322/.413 with 15 home runs, with that respectable slash line undermined by a lack of walks and some of the lowest hard-hit ball numbers of any hitter in the league.  The Orioles chose to non-tender Alberto rather than pay him a projected arbitration salary in the range of $2.3MM to $4.1MM, and since he has another year of arb eligibility beyond 2021, the Royals potentially have two years of control over his services.

Given the lack of experienced infield depth on the K.C. roster, there certainly seems to be a good chance for Alberto to win himself at least a bench job, and perhaps even a platoon role at second base if Nicky Lopez is protected against left-handed starters.  The right-handed hitting Alberto has some very good numbers (.350/.367/.464) in 350 career PA against southpaws over his career.

Alberto has also seen action as a shortstop at the MLB level and even played a handful of games as a first baseman and corner outfielder, adding to his bid for utilityman work.  Kelvin Gutierrez, Erick Mejia, and rookie Lucius Fox are some of the other contenders for a backup infielder role, though the Royals’ infield picture could be shaken up considerably during the season if star prospect Bobby Witt Jr. is given an aggressive promotion to the Show.

AL Notes: White Sox, Rodón, Twins, Polanco, Arraez, Royals, Pérez

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Yesterday, it was somewhat surprising to see the White Sox come to terms with Carlos Rodón – their No. 3 overall pick turned non-tender. It’s boilerplate for teams to suggest “staying in touch” with their non-tenders, but it’s not often that someone of Rodón’s draft pedigree actually re-signs, especially for a team as all-in on 2021 as the White Sox. In most cases, the player is better off getting a fresh look with a different organization, but with new manager Tony La Russa bringing Ethan Katz to provide a fresh voice as the pitching coach, Rodón gets much of that same benefit without the hassle of a move, writes the Athletic’s James Fegan. Given the stakes of the season at hand, it’s safe to assume the White Sox think Rodón can hang in the rotation, giving him the inside track on landing the fifth starter spot behind Lucas Giolito, Lance Lynn, Dallas Keuchel, and Dylan Cease. Let’s circle up here in the AL Central…

  • Before signing perennial Gold Glove shortstop Andrelton Simmons, the Twins consulted with Jorge Polanco and Luis Arraez about the move, tweets the Athletic’s Aaron Gleeman. Since both Polanco and Arraez stand to be displaced from their expected roles, the Twins were wise to secure their buy-in. Still, it’s a courtesy they didn’t have to observe. Polanco has been the team’s regular shortstop for most of the past four seasons. As for Arraez, projection systems from THE BAT X to Steamer to ZiPS forecast Arraez to lead the Majors in batting average, as pointed out on the Athletic’s Rates and Barrels podcast. While it’s not the 1990’s anymore, it’s still surprising to push a potential batting champ out of a regular role. That said, we tend to overrate the starting lineup on opening day, and underrate the impact and opportunity that exists for players in “bench” roles.
  • Now that J.T. Realmuto, James McCann, and (unofficially) Yadier Molina are all off the market, Salvador Pérez can begin to imagine his own free agency a year from now. The Kansas City staple hasn’t spoken with the Royals about an extension, though he’s on the record saying he’d like to retire a Royal, per Lynn Worthy of the Kansas City Star. Pérez fell off the map while missing the 2019 season, but he bounced back in a big way during the shortened 2020 season by slashing .333/.353/.633 over 156 plate appearances. It’s easy to imagine the Royals quietly extending their MVP from the 2015 World Series, but if he has anywhere near as productive a season this year as last, there may be legitimate competition for his services. Lest we forget exactly how highly-regarded Pérez was as the game manager of the Royals’ competitive run from 2013 to 2017, he made six All-Star games, won three Silver Sluggers and five Gold Glove Awards.  He’ll have wrapped his age-31 season when he hits free agency after 2021.

The Other Rockies’ Superstar Who Made St. Louis Home

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If the Cardinals are able to complete their acquisition of star third baseman Nolan Arenado – under the terms as we know them now – they’ll add the best defensive third baseman of his generation. Kyle Newman of the Denver Post pegs the Arenado deal as the biggest trade in Rockies’ franchise history. Cardinals shortstop Paul DeJong certainly sounds pleased, saying on MLB Network Radio today (via Twitter), “…having a guy like Arenado in our lineup is going to completely change the way pitchers look at us.”

Arenado’s trophy case is full: five All-Star nominations, four Silver Slugger awards, and a Gold Glove for every season in the Majors (eight). A career .293/.349/.541 hitter, Arenado has created 39.1 bWAR/32.3 fWAR with a solid 7.9 percent career walk rate and solid 15.0 percent career strikeout rate. Though 2020 was a down year offensively, he became one of the toughest hitters in the game to strikeout, doing so in only 10.0 percent of his plate appearances.

All that said, he would head to Busch Stadium III with the usual caveats of a player leaving Coors Field. Namely: can he hit outside of Coors?

Paul Goldschmidt can walk Arenado through the transition from face-of-the-franchise in the west to being just “one of the guys” crashing at Yadi Molina’s house. But to preview the shock-to-the-system Arenado may face taking his hacks so much closer to sea level, we can go a little further back to another Rockies’ superstar who went east for the latter half of his career: Matt Holliday.

Holliday averaged 154 wRC+ per season during his first five years at Coors Field, his age-24 to age-28 seasons (2004 to 2008). Over that same time span he posted 105 wRC+ on the road. For his part, Arenado is a career 128 wRC+ hitter at home and 108 wRC+ hitter away from Coors.

Visual learners can check this Fangraphs chart for his home/road splits by age, then do the same for Holliday. Holliday’s splits look nearly the same through age-30 before converging at the point in his career that Arenado faces now: 30 years-old and permanently changing his address from Denver to St. Louis.

As you can see in that chart, Holliday’s overall wOBA follows a fairly traditional aging curve. Playing at Coors Field, however, can warp the shape of that production. As this March article from the Athletic’s Nick Groke covers in detail, the Coors Field dilemma isn’t just about how fast the balls fly through Colorado’s thin air, but how much sharper the breaks appear to hitters on the road. As much as Coors helps a hitter’s numbers (more than a normal home split), playing away from Coors hurts (more than a normal road split).

To think in terms of wRC+, it might just be that the Arenado who arrives in St. Louis will no longer be a 128 wRC+ hitter at home and a 108 wRC+ hitter on the road – but he could still be a 118 wRC+ hitter overall.

Or at least, that was Holliday’s path. Over his seven years in St. Louis, his home/road splits stabilized. He would average 133 wRC+ on the road and 142 wRC+ per season at home. On the whole, he arguably became a better hitter with 133 wRC+ during his five seasons in Colorado compared to 139 wRC+ in his seven full seasons in St. Louis. Does that mean Arenado will do the same? Of course not. Just because Holliday stayed largely healthy and productive past his prime years doesn’t mean that Arenado will do the same.

Holliday and Arenado tracked mirroring paths to the Show-Me State. Holliday’s age-29 season was anomalous for his career in terms of the playing conditions – just like Arenado. Whereas Arenado had to deal with a 60-game season in a pandemic-wracked world, Holliday faced the equally jarring reality of moving from Coors Field to Oakland’s spacious Coliseum. I kid, but Holliday’s half-season in Oakland stands out as a singularly odd year on Holliday’s resume in terms of the conditions relative to the rest of his career. If Arenado stays in St. Louis the length of his contract, he’ll be in Cardinal red for seven seasons from age 30 to 36 – the exact length of stay Holliday enjoyed in the Gateway to the West.

On the other hand, they aren’t the exact same type of hitter. While both are right-handed sluggers, Holliday had a little more in common with Goldschmidt than Arenado. Holiday was a worm killer even in his era. As a Rockie, Holliday logged a 1.38 groundball-to-flyball rate, whereas Arenado’s 0.87 GB/FB rate reflects the fact that he hits the ball in the air more than Holliday ever did. Compared to the rest of the league, Holliday hit the ball on the ground more than the average player throughout his career. Arenado can’t even see him from so far down the other end of that spectrum.

Holliday sprayed the ball to all fields a little more than Arenado, who leans pull side with 41.8 percent pull percentage to 23.1 percent opposite field for his career. Theoretically, that could hurt Arenado, as Busch tends to be a good singles and triples park for righties while suppressing offense in most other regards, per Park Factors at Swish Analytics. At least he’ll have a shorter porch in left to target, for what that’s worth.

Will Arenado adapt to his new confines? Ask Holliday, who not only tread this path before but was teammates with Arenado in 2018. He offers nothing but praise, writes Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.

Besides, Arenado’s glove should continue to be an exceptional asset. While age may diminish his abilities at the hot corner somewhat, he has a lot of wiggle room before even entering the stratosphere of any other third baseman outside, maybe, Matt Chapman. With DeJong on his left, he shouldn’t even face much of an adjustment there. DeJong may be one of the few defensive shortstops who can rival Trevor Story’s competence on that end.

Arenado is heading from an organization that has never won its division to one of the game’s premier, trademark franchises. He’s leaving the NL West, where the Dodgers and Padres are readying for what could be an epic divisional bloodbath – and he’s joining the NL Central, where contenders are being broken down and sold for parts. It might be a jarring move for Arenado, but he can always look back and take comfort in the fact that this trail has been blazed before – and it worked out quite well. Remember, it was only their second full season together that Holliday and the Cardinals won the World Series.

Twins Sign Andrelton Simmons

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Jan 31: The Twins have officially announced the signing. The Twins now have two open spots on their 40-man roster.

Jan 26: The Twins have reached an agreement with free agent shortstop Andrelton Simmons on a one-year, $10.5MM contract, per ESPN’s Jeff Passan (via Twitter). Per the Athletic’s Aaron Gleeman (via Twitter), the deal is done, pending a physical. The ISE Baseball client is the third shortstop and fourth infielder to come off the board in the past few hours.

The Twins step in from somewhat out-of-the-blue to sign Simmons – but not entirely. Twins GM Thad Levine flagged the potential for a move like this recently in saying that the defensive versatility of their current roster gave them options in free agency. Jorge Polanco will slide over to second base, while Luis Arraez will move around the diamond as needed, notes Passan.

Levine recently spoke of being impressed by the Dodgers’ malleability in the World Series, noting that his own roster could flex similarly, especially with manager Rocco Baldelli as a capable tactician at the wheel. If nothing else, with Simmons at short, Josh Donaldson at third, and Byron Buxton in center, the Twins boast a defense with upside enough to make a difference. Moving Polanco off short and installing Simmons in his place – on its own – has the makings of an impactful upgrade.

The four-time Gold Glove Award winner has long been considered the tastemaker with the glove at short, though ankle injuries have limited his contributions the past two seasons. His glovework was worth -1 outs above average over a 30-game sample in 2020 before he opted out, but in just 103 games the year prior, he was second among all shortstops with 12 OAA. It’s not at all a reach to suggest that Simmons is a generational talent on the defensive end.

There are more questions on the offensive side of the game. For his career, Simmons owns a slash line of .269/.317/.379 with a career 90 wRC+. The 31-year-old won’t be asked to carry the weight of the offense on a Twins’ club that has been known for its power output in recent years. Of course, two major contributors to the Bomba Squad – Eddie Rosario and Nelson Cruz – are currently free agents.*

Last season, Simmons slashed .297/.346/.356 across 127 plate appearances with a 12.6 percent strikeout rate and 6.3 percent walk rate. Simmons is one of the toughest players in the game to strikeout, though that’s in part because he’s a free swinger who doesn’t take many walks. His batter ball numbers weren’t good in 2020 – for example, zero barrels – but in such a small sample it’s tough to glean much substance.

The question Twins fans will ask is whether this signing precludes Minnesota from a reunion with designated hitter Nelson Cruz. Signing Simmons at this price point for one year could certainly be seen as a way to save money. In terms of maximizing flexibility, replacing Cruz with Simmons certainly accomplishes the task. That said, there’s an argument to be made that adding Simmons to the defense make Cruz an even better fit on the offensive end. Last we heard, however, there hasn’t been much movement on talks between the Twins and Cruz – though with this box checked, talks could just as well open up again. That figures to change, or way or another, with Simmons now in the fold. The Twins might not be done, however. Per the Athletic’s Dan Hayes (via Twitter), someone with the clubs says they have “two more moves ahead before the offseason is out.”

In terms of his value relative to the market, Minnesota nets Simmons for slightly less than we projected for him at the outset of free agency – MLBTR forecast $12MM. He lands pretty firmly between the one-year deals signed by his peers today. Marcus Semien signed for $18MM, while Freddy Galvis signed for $1.5MM. All three will now re-enter free agency next season when Trevor Story, Francisco Lindor, Corey Seager, Carlos Correa, and Javier Baez are also set to hit the open market.

*Rosario has since signed with the Indians.

Quick Hits: Indians, Payroll, Patton, Nationals, Catchers

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The Indians did not budget enough money in 2021 to both re-sign Cesar Hernandez and add free agent Eddie Rosario. With those two completing the lineup, the Indians’ roster is more-or-less set with a payroll around $50MM, per Paul Hoynes of Cleveland.com. Take this for what it is, but the Indians exceeded payroll just to get there. Owner Paul Dolan made an extra concession to allow the addition of Rosario. To their credit, he represents a somewhat major addition given their inability to field above-average offensive outfielders. Over the last two seasons, Rosario slashed .271/.305/.494 with 45 home runs over 821 plate appearances, good for a modest 105 wRC+. That Nolan was willing to stretch the payroll speaks volumes about how the Indians value Rosario’s fit in the lineup.

  • Spencer Patton is throwing an improved change-up with the hopes of bringing three viable pitches out of the bullpen, per Robert Murray of FanSided. The 32-year-old right-hander led Nippon Professional Baseball with 57 appearances last season, which is no small feat to MLB teams aware of the perils in ramping up pitcher workloads in 2021. Patton’s numbers from Japan won’t blow you away, however, with a 4.92 ERA, respectable 28.1 percent strikeout rate, and slightly-concerning 11.7 percent walk rate. Patton will throw for teams again on February 2nd, with the Braves, Rays, Angels, Royals, Rangers, and Giants being among the teams to have shown some interest thus far.
  • Pitching has long been the focus for the Nationals organization, but at the same time, they’ve lagged behind in the catching department, writes MASNSports.com’s Mark Zuckerman. Pedro Severino is the most prolific homegrown catcher with 105 games played for the organization – though he didn’t break out until joining the Orioles. Raudy Read or Tres Barrera are next in line to have an opportunity, but the recent signing of Alex Avila suggests GM Mike Rizzo isn’t ready to give either one too long of a look out of the blocks. Both Barrera and Read have served PED suspensions in the past, however, and Welington Castillo will also be in camp as a non-roster invitee.

AL East Notes: Vazquez, Angels, Tanaka, Blue Jays, Taillon

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The Angels signed Kurt Suzuki this offseason, and with a catching corps of Suzuki, Max Stassi, and Anthony Bemboom, adding an upper-tier backstop “would be a luxury and not a necessity” for the team, FanSided’s Robert Murray writes.  However, the Halos have at least checked in on some prominent catchers, including Christian Vazquez of the Red Sox.  No deal appears to be close, as the Sox naturally want quite a lot for Vazquez and “there are doubts whether the Red Sox will entertain trading him” whatsoever.

Vazquez is entering his final guaranteed year of the contract extension he signed in March 2018.  He’ll earn $6.25MM in 2021, and the Red Sox hold a $7MM club option ($250K buyout) on his services for 2022.  It’s a very affordable price for one of the game’s better defensive catchers, not to mention a catcher who has swung an increasingly dangerous bat — Vazquez has hit .278/.327/.472 with 30 homers in 710 plate appearances since the start of the 2019 season.  He does turn 31 in August, so the Sox could think about moving him at a high point in his trade value, but the Angels or any suitor would have to step up with a very big offer to get Boston’s attention.

More from the AL East…

  • In a press conference announcing his return to the Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles, Masahiro Tanaka implied that he could return to Major League Baseball even before his two-year deal with the Eagles is up.  “I feel I have unfinished business in America, and I haven’t given up on that, so they agreed on terms that would keep those options open,” Tanaka said.  This could seem to hint at an opt-out clause after the 2021 season, Ken Davidoff of the New York Post notes, and quite possibly a return to the Yankees in 2022.  With the Yankees intent on resetting their luxury tax penalty limit this winter, the team opted to spend its resources elsewhere rather than re-sign Tanaka at his desired asking price.  Come next offseason, however, the Yankees might well be willing to exceed the tax threshold (and pay only a first-timer penalty fee) in order to acquire Tanaka and other roster upgrades.
  • Also from Robert Murray, Blue Jays outfielders Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Randal Grichuk are drawing trade interest.  The addition of George Springer has created a surplus in Toronto’s outfield, with Grichuk seemingly relegated to fourth outfielder duty as Gurriel and Teoscar Hernandez are slated for the corners.  It’s safe to guess that Gurriel is the more sought-after player, since Gurriel is over two years younger than Grichuk and has a less-expensive contract — Gurriel is owed $13.4MM through the 2023 season, while Grichuk is owed $29MM.  One of the outfielders could be dangled a way of obtaining pitching, since the Jays continue to look for both rotation and bullpen help.
  • The Rays were one of the other suitors trying to obtain Jameson Taillon from the Pirates, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.  Taillon ended up traded to the Yankees, and as Topkin points out, the Rays had interest in both Taillon and Corey Kluber, New York’s two main pitching acquisitions of the offseason.

Twins, Nelson Cruz Resume Negotiations

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Nelson Cruz and the Twins have recently restarted talks on a new contract for the slugger, The Athletic’s Dan Hayes reports.  Cruz had been looking for a two-year contract, but “the possibility of a one-year accord [is] now on the table” in his current discussions with Minnesota, Hayes writes.

Despite mutual interest in a continued relationship, there hasn’t been much action between Cruz and the Twins this offseason since both sides were fairly entrenched in their positions.  The team didn’t want to pay too much money and give more than one guaranteed year to a player who turns 41 in July, especially when a DH-only player like Cruz is (at the moment) limited to only American League teams.  From Cruz’s perspective, he was hopeful that his market could expand to NL teams if the universal DH was implemented, and as a result was looking for a two-year contract commensurate with his continued outstanding production.

Since there isn’t yet any movement towards the NL getting the designated hitter in 2021, that could explain why Cruz’s representatives have re-engaged with the Twins, and why there have be some flexibility from Cruz’s original two-year ask.  As Hayes notes, however, the two sides still have to “common ground on a salary,” which may not be simple since the Twins would ideally like to both re-sign Cruz and still have money left over to obtain more pitching.  Minnesota has weighed such alternate strategies as focusing all of its available payroll space on pitching and either letting its internal options handle the DH spot, or perhaps signing a cheaper alternative to Cruz — Hayes notes that Edwin Encarnacion has been considered as a possibility.

Or, in separate direction entirely, the Twins have also “floated” the idea of another free agent signing in Marcell Ozuna.  Such a move would pivot the club away from a pitching search, since Ozuna would be both pricier than Cruz and require at least a three-year contract.  Ozuna is over a decade younger than Cruz, of course, and while Ozuna might become a DH-only type in the future, Minnesota could deploy him as a part-time outfielder for at least a season or two.  It’s probably safe to assume that Ozuna is something of a Plan C for the Twins, just in case an agreement couldn’t be reached with either Cruz or any notable pitching targets.

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